Surf Forecasts and Marine Weather - No Hype - Just the Facts!
Southern Hemi Recharging! - Video Forecast HERE (5/26/24)
Buoys | Buoy Forecast | Bulletins | Models: Wave - Weather - Surf - Altimetry - Snow | Pacific Forecast | QuikCAST | El Nino | Tutorials | Great Circles | Video


Stormsurf Mobile App

Create Your Own Surf Forecast
Swell Calculator
Swell Decay Tables
Sea Height Tables
Swell Category Table
Convert from GMT:
 to timezone:


Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Saturday, June 13, 2020 12:22 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
2.5 - California & 2.2 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 6/8 thru Sun 6/14

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

SE Pac Swell Fading in CA
New Zealand Swell Pushing Northeast

On Saturday, June 13, 2020 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 3.2 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 1.9 ft @ 8.7 secs from 166 degrees.
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 4.0 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 2.5 ft @ 8.6 secs from 33 degrees. Water temp 78.3 degs.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.8 ft @ 6.7 secs with swell 1.5 ft @ 14.1 secs from 168 degrees. Wind at the buoy was northwest at 6-8 kts. Water temperature 66.0 degs. At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 2.4 ft @ 11.6 secs from 277 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.4 ft @ 15.1 secs from 192 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.9 ft @ 15.0 secs from 190 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 2.0 ft @ 14.9 secs from 173 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 5.9 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 4.4 ft @ 9.9 secs from 306 degrees with southern hemi swell 2.3 ft @ 15.9 secs from 177 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was west at 6-8 kts. Water temp 49.8 degs (013), NA degs (012) and 57.2 degs (042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

Current Conditions
On Saturday (6/13) in North and Central CA locally generated north windswell was producing waves at waist to maybe chest high and heavily textured and soft and warbled with modest onshore winds. Protected breaks were waist high and a little warbled but with clean surface conditions and soft and mushed. At Santa Cruz southern hemi swell was producing set waves at waist high or so and clean but soft. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist high or so and reasonably lined up but soft with some intermixed warble in the water but with clean surface conditions. Central Orange County had waves at head high or a little more and lined up coming from the south but with a fair amount of lump intermixed from southerly wind. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had waves at head high on the sets and clean but soft. North San Diego had waves at waist to chest high and clean and lined up. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was thigh high on the sets and clean. The East Shore was getting east windswell at chest high with east tradewinds blowing and chopped conditions.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Saturday (6/13) in Hawaii no real swell of any interest was hitting. In California swell was fading from a small gale that formed on the eastern edge of the Southern CA swell window in the deep Southeast Pacific on Wed-Thurs (6/4) producing 32 ft seas aimed northeast. For the future a gale passed east under New Zealand Mon-Tues (6/9) producing up to 38 ft seas aimed east. Swell is radiating northeast. Another small gale was to form southeast of New Zealand Fri-Sun (6/14) lifting north but now is forecast to only produce up to 30 ft seas early Saturday aimed a little to the northeast, then dissipate. Beyond there's some weak signals of another gale forming under New Zealand Fri-Sat (6/20) producing 36 ft seas aimed northeast.

See all the details below...


Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Surface Analysis
On Saturday (6/13) no swell of interest was in the water.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.


North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height


Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Sat (6/13) North CA had light winds early and Central CA had north winds 15-20 kts from Monterey south to Pt Conception and building there to 20-25 kts later. Light rain for Cape Mendocino mainly early. On Sun (6/14) north winds to be 5 kts early for North CA and 10-15 kts for Monterey southward to Pt Conception early building to 15-20 kts for all of North and Central CA later. Mon (6/15) northwest winds are forecast at 15-20 kts from Pt Arena to Pt Conception early holding all day. Tues (6/16) north winds are forecast at 20+ kts early from Cape Mendocino south to Pt Conception building to 25-30 kts later. Wed (6/17) northwest winds to hold at 25 kts early for all of North CA and 20 kts for Central CA early building to near 30 kts for North CA north of Bodega Bay and 10 kts south of there later. On Thurs (6/18) north winds to hold at 25-30 kts centered on Cape Mendocino with northwest winds 10 kts south of Bodega Bay with perhaps a light eddy flow (south winds) setting up south of the Golden Gate in the afternoon. Fri (6/19) north winds to be 20 kts for Cape Mendocino with a weak eddy flow south of there all day. No change on Sat (6/20).

Total snow accumulation for the week for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0, 0, 0 and 0 inches respectively.

Snow Models: (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!


South Pacific

On Saturday (6/13) the jetstream was mostly split with a ridge pushing south under New Zealand over Antarctic Ice but a trough forming just east of it being fed by 130 kts winds but fairly pinched off offering only limited support for gale development in lower levels of the atmosphere. Over the next 72 hours that trough is to push east through Mon (6/15) reaching north to 38S but pretty pinched if not almost cutoff offering low odds for gale development. Behind it the ridge is to push east reaching down into Antarctica offering nothing. Beyond 72 hours starting Wed (6/17) the ridge is to fade but another ridge is to build right behind it sweeping east with yet another right behind it on Thurs-Fri (6/19) actively suppressing support for gale development. No support for gale development is indicated.

Surface Analysis
On Saturday (6/13) swell is hitting California from a small gale that formed in the far Southeast Pacific (see Southeast Pacific Gale below). Another gale pushed under New Zealand behind that (see Weak New Zealand Gale below). And yet one more weak gale formed under New Zealand tracking east but the models have backed off on previous projections suggesting this might be a good swell producer (see Final New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.


New Zealand Gale #4
Another solid gale started building under New Zealand on Fri PM (5/29) producing 40-45 kt southwest winds over a solid area aimed northeast with 29 ft seas building at 58S 166E aimed east. On Sat AM (5/30) a solid area of 50 kt southwest winds were building south of New Zealand producing 43 ft seas at 60.5S 173E aimed east. The gale tracked east-northeast in the evening with 45-50 kts southwest winds over a solid area and seas 44 ft at 58.5S 171.5W aimed northeast. The gale continued east-northeast on Sun AM (5/31) with 40 kt southwest winds and seas 40 ft over a decent area aimed northeast at 56.5S 159W. The gale was fading in the evening with 35-40 kt southwest winds over a solid area aimed well northeast and seas fading from 33 ft at 54S 150W aimed northeast. Fetch was fading Mon AM (6/1) from 30-35 kts over a modest area aimed north with seas 29 ft at 52S 140W aimed northeast. Fetch was gone in the evening. Swell is radiating northeast through pushing mainly east of Hawaii.

Southern CA: Residuals fading on Thurs (6/11) from 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 201 degrees


Southeast Pacific Gale
A small gale formed in the far Southeast Pacific on Wed PM (6/3) producing a broad area of 35-40 kt southwest winds aimed well northeast with seas 31 ft at 56S 123W. Fetch was fading Thurs AM (6/4) at 35-40 kts from the southwest lifting northeast with seas 31 ft at 52S 120W aimed northeast. The gale is to continue lifting northeast in the evening with 35 kt southerly winds but outside the CA swell window with seas 29 ft at 45S 111.5W targeting mainly Peru and Central America. The gale is to continue targeting Peru after that while fading.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (6/11) building to 2.3 ft @ 18 secs late (4.0 ft). Swell to peak on Fri (6/12) at 2.6 ft @ 16-17 secs early (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell fading on Sat (6/13) from 2.2 ft @ 15 secs early (3.0 ft). A second pulse is to arrive on Sun (6/14) building to 2.0 ft @ 16-17 secs late (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell fading Mon (6/15) from 1.6 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5 ft) early. Swell dissipating on Tues (6/16) from 1.5 ft @ 13 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 183 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (6/11) building to 1.6 ft @ 19 secs late (3.0 ft). Swell to peak on Fri (6/12) at 2.1 ft @ 17 secs mid-day (3.5 ft). Swell fading on Sat (6/13) from 1.6 ft @ 15-16 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell is to be gone after that. Swell Direction: 180 degrees turning to 175 degrees


Weak New Zealand Gale
A weak primer gale started developing under New Zealand on Mon PM (6/8) producing 45 kt southwest winds over a small area and 30 ft seas at 58S 179E aimed northeast. On Tues AM (6/9) fetch was fading from 40 kts from the southwest with 29-30 ft seas over a small area at 57S 168W aimed northeast. Behind it a stronger gale was building south-southwest of New Zealand with 45-50 kt west winds and seas building to 39 ft over a modest sized area at 57S 156E aimed east. In the evening fetch was fading from 40 kts from the west-southwest and seas at 36 ft at 56S 172E aimed east. The gale was pushing east-northeast on Wed AM (6/10) producing 30 kt southwest winds and seas fading from 29-30 ft at 55S 173W aimed east-northeast. This system was gone after that. Some minimal swell is radiating northeast towards Hawaii and a little more energy towards the US West Coast with luck. Something to monitor.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Tues (6/16) building to 1.4 ft @ 18-19 secs late (2.5 ft). Swell building on Wed (6/17) to 1.8 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.0 ft) mid-afternoon. Swell fading on Thurs (6/18) from 1.5 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 195 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (6/18) building to 1.3 ft @ 19-20 secs late (2.0 ft). Swell building on Fri (6/19) pushing 2.0 ft @ 17-18 secs later (3.5 ft). Swell holding on Sat (6/20) at 2.2 ft @ 16-17 secs early (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 208-210 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (6/18) building to 1.2 ft @ 20 secs late (2.0 ft). Swell building on Fri (6/19) pushing 1.8 ft @ 17-18 secs later (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell holding on Sat (6/20) at 2.0 ft @ 16-17 secs early (3.0-3.5 ft).Swell Direction: 206-209 degrees


Final New Zealand Gale
One more gale formed southeast of New Zealand on Fri AM (6/12) with lifting northeast with a broad area of 35-40 kt southwest winds and seas 27 ft at 54S 176E aimed northeast. In the evening 35-40 kt southwest winds lifted northeast with 30 ft seas at 57S 174W aimed northeast. The gale faded from there while lifting due north Sat AM (6/13) with 30-35 kt south winds and seas 30 ft over a tiny area at 55S 165W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch is to fade out. Low odds of any meaningful swell resulting.

Oahu: Sideband swell arriving on Fri (6/19) building to 1.6 ft @ 17-18 secs alter (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell holding on Sat (6/20) at 2.3 ft @ 16 secs (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 187 degrees


South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height




Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.


South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no obvious swell producing weather systems are forecast. A gale is forecast sweeping east under New Zealand positioned on the northern edge of the Ross Ice Shelf producing up to 36 ft seas aimed east on Fri evening (6/19) and tracking east to the Central South Pacific later Sat (6/20). Low odds of this actually occurring.



MJO/ENSO Forecast


La Nina Pattern Strengthening

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: A double dip La Nina was in control through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. El Nino was dead. A bit of a recovery occurred during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru and had not changed until March 2020. By April the cool pool had collapsed with warm water starting to build on the equator.

Fall/Winter 2019/2020 = 5.0/4.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It is assumed the PDO has moved to the warm phase in 2014 and that a weak borderline El Nino from 2018 faded out in the Fall of 2019. A La Nina like ocean temperature pattern developed in the equatorial East Pacific in the summer of 2019, then faded and returned to a neutral if not weak warm status during the Winter of 2019-2020. We have been suspecting a turn towards a La Nina like atmospheric pattern to develop in the late Winter/early Spring of 2020. Our best hope is that moderation from the warm phase of the PDO might tamp down development of a full blown La Nina as we move into 2020. Given all that, for 2020 there is decent probability for development of La Nina meaning a reduced number of storm days and storm intensity during the summer season, resulting in a below normal level of swell, with swell being below normal duration and period. And by the Fall and early Winter of 2020, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should fade even more, resulting in depressed swell production. This pattern is expected to hold through the end of 2020 if not longer.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (6/12) 5 day average winds were solid from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific continuing over the Central Pacific and holding over the Dateline and KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific turning light easterly over the Central Pacific and holding over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (6/13) moderate east anomalies were filling the KWGA. The forecast calls for those anomalies holding and mostly filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 6/20 though weakening to neutral or light westerly over a small area just west of the dateline. East anomalies are forecast mostly filling the East Pacific through the end of the model run.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (6/12) A neutral MJO pattern was filling the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates this pattern is to hold unchanged through day 10 and then on day 15 the Active Phase is to be building over the Maritime Continent and is to start seeping west into the KWGA. The dynamic model indicates a weak Inactive Phase is to be building on day 5, holding on day 10, then taking over the equatorial Pacific on day 15 and filling the KWGA.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (6/13) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over the Central Indian Ocean today and is to slowly ease east and weaken and all but gone over the Maritime Continent at day 15. The GEFS model suggests the Active Phase stalling and meandering in the Central Indian Ocean returning right where it started at day 15.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (6/13) This model depicts the Inactive Phase was modest over the East Pacific today and is to push east moving over Central America on 6/18. An exceedingly weak Active MJO is forecast developing over the far West Pacific 6/23 pushing slowly east and moving into Central America starting 7/3 and continuing through the end of model run on 7/23. A moderate Inactive Phase is to start building in the far West Pacific on 7/18.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/12) This model depicts no coherent MJO signal over the KWGA today or if anything a weak Inactive signal with mostly east anomalies over the KWGA. The forecast indicates a weak Inactive MJO tracking east through the KWGA through 6/17 with modest to moderate east anomalies holding and filling the KWGA and if anything building in coverage continuing through the end of the model run on 7/10.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/13 - using the 4th/latest ensemble member): This model depicts a weak Inactive MJO over the KWGA today with mostly weak east anomalies indicated filling the KWGA. The forecast depicts the Inactive MJO is to hold while easing east through 7/31 with mostly weak east anomalies forecast over the KWGA and east anomalies also setting up over the East Pacific 6/29 and building steadily in coverage filling the East Pacific in late July and then holding steady for the foreseeable future. An Active MJO is forecast developing in the far West KWGA on 7/26 and pushing west filling the KWGA 8/8 holding through the end of the model run on 9/10 with weak west anomalies in pockets filling the western half of the KWGA while east anomalies hold solid over the Eastern half of the KWGA and filling the remainder of the Pacific and if anything getting pretty strong in later August. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias has appeared centered on the dateline today and is to build steadily in coverage through the end of the model run with a second contour setting up on 8/16. A single contour low pressure bias is to reappear over the Indian Ocean starting 7/31 building in coverage through the end of the model run. East anomalies that have been previously solid in the Indian Ocean are migrating east today into the Pacific are to set up on the dateline and points east of there by 6/28 and continuing if not building there for the foreseeable future fueled by the building high pressure bias contour. Based on this model it appears a clear transition to La Nina is starting today and is to become entrenched by mid-July.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (6/13) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 deg isotherm was stable reaching east to 160E. The 29 deg isotherm was stable reaching east to 174W. The 28 deg isotherm line was stable at 158W today. The 24 deg isotherm was no longer pushing into Ecuador but was reaching the surface at 123W, retrograding west slightly. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies 0-1 deg C were isolated to the West Pacific reaching east to 150W. There were no warm anomalies east of there. Cool anomalies were upwelling to the surface from a large subsurface pocket of cool water -2 degs 150 meters deep from 180W to Ecuador. It is likely poised to continue upwelling to the surface over the coming weeks though continues to lose some of it's intensity today. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 6/7 indicates the same thing with warm anomalies now gone in the East Pacific and with cool water at depth erupting in the east to the surface between 85W-170W at -5 degs C. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (6/7) Negative anomalies at -5 to -10 cms were over the equatorial Pacific between Ecuador and 160W and maybe losing a little coverage, with neutral anomalies pushing west to 170E (losing some ground there too) suggestive of a cool subsurface pool below the equator and mostly holding in coverage. Negative anomalies were also now building along and down the coast of Peru and up the coast of Central America to Mexico. Positive anomalies at +5 cms were effectively gone over the entirety of the equatorial Pacific.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (6/13) The latest images indicate cold water was building solidly over the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos and to the dateline, looking like the start of a La Nina pattern. Warm anomalies were gone off the coast of Chile up into Peru turning decidedly cooler. Warm water was off Central America reaching west to the dateline but only north of the equator, remnants of a fading El Nino like pattern. Overall the cool pool on the equator was unmistakable and building in coverage and intensity.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (6/12): A well defined cooling trend started from North Peru and pushing north and east on the equator along Ecuador and out over the Galapagos out to 140W. Pockets of warming were on the equator west of 110W to 160W. The short term trend is looking like a push firmly towards the development of La Nina with cool water over the Eastern Equatorial Pacific scraping any remaining warm equatorial water and pushing it quickly west to the far West equatorial Pacific.
Hi-res Overview: (6/12) A stream of cool water was developing along the coast of Peru lifting northwest to the equator from Ecuador west to the dateline and if anything building. Warmer than normal temps were stable north of the equator with cooler than normal water building on and south of the equator. Overall the data suggests a building La Nina.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/13) Today's temps were momentarily stable down at -1.141 after previously falling to -0.810 on 5/27. Overall the trend is fading from a warmer range near +0.6 degs between 2/25-3/26.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(6/13) Temps were stable at -0.322 after bottoming out at -0.595 on 5/27. Overall the trend is on a firm downward trajectory after previously being in the +0.3 degree range in Feb., and up to the +0.5-+0.6 degree range 3/12-4/8.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (6/13) Actual temperatures were in the +0.65 deg range 1/1/2020 through 4/1/2020 then started falling hard down to -0.25 in late-May. The forecast depicts temps continuing to fall, down to -0.55 July 1, then continuing on a slower downward trajectory reaching down to -0.95 in early Nov and holding there through Dec, then starting to rebound in early 2021. According to this model sea surface temps should be falling strongly moving towards La Nina as Summer develops. All objective evidence indicates this is in-fact occurring.
IRI Consensus Plume: The May 20, 2020 Plume depicts temps are at +0.20 degs, and are to slow fade to neutral +0.00 in July 2020, then holding there through December 2020. The outliers are the dynamic models (NCEP CFS, NASA GMAO and the COLA CCSM4) all suggesting solid La Nina. See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (6/13): The daily index was positive today at 8.65. The 30 day average was falling to -2.12. The 90 day average was steady at -2.36, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was in control.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): April 2020 -0.62, March -0.11, Feb +0.69, Jan +0.42, Dec 2019 +0.46, Nov +1.03, Oct +0.27 Sept +1.11, August +0.60, July +0.75, June -0.32, May +1.10, April +0.30, March +1.0, Feb +1.29, Jan +0.193. This index has been steadily positive but still indicates mostly ENSO neutral conditions (not El Nino).

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan 2019 -0.18, Feb -0.50 Mar -0.23, April +0.10, May +0.14, June -0.11, July +0.44, Aug -0.14, Sept +0.05, Oct -0.96, Nov -0.28, Dec +0.01, Jan 2020 -1.17, This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2018 +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

Powerlinessurf Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest

Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (5/31):
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

- - -

NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing:

Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel

Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table


Contact | About | Disclaimer | Privacy
Advertise/Content | Links
Visit Mark Sponsler on Facebook Visit Stormsurf on Instagram Visit Stormsurf on YouTube
Copyright © 2024 STORMSURF - All Rights Reserved
This page cannot be duplicated, reused or framed in another window without express written permission.
But links are always welcome.
Buoys | Buoy Forecast | Bulletins | Models: Wave - Weather - Surf - Altimetry - Snow | Pacific Forecast | QuikCAST | El Nino | Tutorials | Great Circles | Calculator