Saturday, June 12, 2021
- Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 3.1 ft @ 5.9 secs with swell 2.1 ft @ 6.1 secs from 161 degrees. Water temp 79.2 degs (Pearl Harbor 233), 79.7 (Lani 239).
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 4.2 ft @ 5.9 secs with swell 3.4 ft @ 6.3 secs from 39 degrees. Water temp 78.1 degs.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 4.5 ft @ 6.2 secs with swell 3.5 ft @ 6.3 secs from 268 degrees. Wind at the buoy was northeast at 4 kts. Water temperature 63.7 degs, 64.9 (Topanga 103), 64.0 degs (Long Beach 215), 65.8 (Del Mar 153), 64.8 (Pt Loma 191). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 4.6 ft @ 5.9 secs from 316 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.1 ft @ 6.1 secs from 265 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 2.6 ft @ 6.7 secs from 281 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 3.1 ft @ 7.6 secs from 282 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 4.5 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 3.6 ft @ 9.5 secs from 265 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was north at 0-2 kts. Water temp 54.5 (029), 57.4 degs (SF Bar 142) and 55.6 degs (Santa Cruz 254).
See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Saturday (6/12) North and Central CA had waves at chest high and clean and with reasonable form but fogged in early. Protected breaks had waist to near chest high sets with clean conditions and lined up and rideable. At Santa Cruz surf was waist high on the sets and lined up and clean but weak. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh high and clean with some light texture on top and weak with no local wind. Central Orange County had set waves at waist high and pretty weak and gutless but lined up with a light texture on it. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at chest high and lined up and real clean making for a few rideable waves. North San Diego had sets waves at waist high on occasion and lined up but weak and mushed with clean conditions. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was small with sets maybe thigh high at top spots and clean but weak and inconsistent. The East Shore was getting east windswell with waves up to waist high and chopped from moderate plus east trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Saturday (6/12) California was getting small west windswell from low pressure off the coast. Hawaii was getting no swell of interest. A gale developed in the Southeast Pacific Sun-Mon (6/7) producing 31 ft seas aimed east-northeast. Tiny if not perceptible swell is radiating northeast towards CA. Another small gale developed in the South Central Pacific Thurs-Fri (6/11) producing up to 36 ft seas over a tiny area aimed east-northeast. And a stronger system is to form southeast of New Zealand tracking east fast Sun-Tues (6/15) producing up to 43 ft seas aimed east-northeast. And maybe another smaller system is to follow producing 32 ft seas on Wed (6/16). The Southern Hemi is trying.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Saturday (6/12) no swell producing fetch is occurring and no swell of interest was in the water other than windswell.
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical systems of interest are occurring nor forecast.
California Nearshore Forecast
- Sun (6/13) low pressure is to be slowly fading along Oregon with North CA seeing southwest winds 5-10 kts winds and northwest 10-15 kts over Central CA from Monterey southward holding all day. Light rain for Pt Arena northward holding through the day
- Mon (6/14) the low is to be fading off Oregon with northwest winds 5-10 kts for North CA early and 10 kts for Central CA but building to 15-20 kts for Monterey southward in the afternoon. Scattered showers for Cape Mendocino early.
- Tues (6/15) the low is to be all but gone with northwest winds 10 kts for North CA early and 20-25 kts from Monterey southward early building to 15-20 kts in the afternoon for North CA with 20-30 kts northwest winds for all of Central CA.
- Wed (6/16) high pressure returns producing northwest winds at 20-25 kts of all of North and Central CA early lifting north and becoming focused over North CA in the afternoon at 25-30 kts and 20-25 kts for Central CA.
- Thurs (6/17) northwest winds are forecast at 25-30 kts for North CA early and 10-15 kts for Central CA nearshore and 20 kts off the coast holding all day but fading nearshore for Central CA to 10 kts from Pt Reyes southward.
- Fri (6/18) northwest winds and high pressure continue for North CA early at 25-30 kts with northwest winds 10 kts for Central CA holding all day.
- Sat (6/19) northwest winds are forecast at 30-35 kts for North CA early and northwest 10 kts for Central CA holding up north in the afternoon and building northwest at 10-15 kts for Central CA.
Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches respectively.
Freezing level 12,000-13,000 ft through 6/15 then pushing up beyond 14,000 ft on 6/16 and holding.
Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level (more here - scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!
On Saturday (6/12) the influential southern branch of the jet was forming a trough southeast of New Zealand being fed by 150 kts winds offering some support for gale development in lower levels of the atmosphere mainly over the South Central Pacific. Over the Southeast Pacific the jet was falling south forming a modest ridge and suppressing gale development there. Over the next 72 hours the trough east of New Zealand is to ease east and build in coverage filling 50% of the South Pacific on Sun (6/13) with winds at 140 kts offering good support for gale development over the Central South Pacific tracking east and moderating into Mon (6/14). Beyond 72 hours that trough is to moderate some then start tapping energy from the northern branch of the jet on Wed (6/16) again perhaps offering a window to support gale development while pushing to the Southeast Pacific on Thurs (6/17). At the same time a ridge is to be building under New Zealand sweeping east pushing south to the Ross Ice Shelf on Fri (6/18) suppressing support for gale development in the Southwest Pacific and moving over the Central South Pacific by Sat (6/19) likely moving us back into a non-productive pattern for a while.
On Saturday (6/12) no noteworthy swell was hitting Hawaii or California generated from the southern hemisphere. Swell was radiating north from 2 gales previously in the Central South Pacific (see Central South Pacific Gale and Small Central South Pacific Gale below). Another somewhat better swell was radiating northeast from a gale previously in the deep South Central Pacific (See Deep Central South Pacific Gale below). And another small swell was radiating northeast from a small gale that formed in the Southwest Pacific (see Small Southwest Pacific Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours starting on Sat PM (6/12) a new gale is to be building just southeast of New Zealand with 45 kt south and southwest winds and seas building from 28 ft at 55.5S 178.5W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (6/13) southwest winds to be 35-40 kts over a large area with a core at 50-55 kts aimed north with seas building from 33 ft at 51S 161.5W aimed northeast. In the evening broad area of 30-40 kt southwest winds is to be filling the South Central Pacific with a core at 50-55 kts aimed northeast producing 39 ft seas at 52S 148.75W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (6/14) fetch is to be fading while tracking east at 45 kts over a solid area with a huge area of 30-35 kt southwest winds outside the core and seas 43 ft at 50.75S 137.75 aimed east to northeast. In the evening 40 kt southwest winds are to be moving fast northeast wit 30 kt southwest winds over a large area in the Southeast Pacific with 37 ft seas at 50S 133W with 26-28 ft seas over a large area aimed northeast at 43S 137W pushing northeast. The fetch is to quickly dissipate from there. Something to monitor.
Central Pacific Gale
A gale started developing Sun AM (6/6) in the deep South Central Pacific producing 40 kt southwest winds over a small area and seas building. The gale lifted northeast in the evening with 40-45 kts southwest winds and seas building to 29 ft at 60.75S 146.5W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (6/7) the gale was fading while lifting northeast with 35+ kt southwest winds and seas 29 ft at 57S 136W aimed northeast. In the evening the gale is to be gone. Low odds of meaningful swell resulting.
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (6/14) building later to 1.0 ft @ 16-17 secs (1.5 ft). Swell building some on Tues (6/15) to 1.3 ft @ 15-16 secs later (2.0 ft). Additional swell energy is to be in the mix on Wed (6/16) with swell to 2.1 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell to be fading on Thurs (6/17) from 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Dribbles on Fri (6/18) fading from 1.8 ft @ 13 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 193-195 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (6/15) building later to 1.2 ft @ 15-16 secs later (1.5-2.0 ft). Additional swell energy is to be in the mix on Wed (6/16) with swell to 1.8 ft @ 16 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell to be fading on Thurs (6/17) from 1.7 ft @ 15 secs (2.5 ft). Dribbles on Fri (6/18) fading from 1.5 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 189-192 degrees
Small Central Pacific Gale
Also on Mon AM (6/7) a cutoff low developed in the upper reaches of the Southeast Pacific producing a small area of 50 kt south winds and seas building from 30 ft over a tiny area at 38S 142W aimed due north. The gale was stationary in the evening producing 40-45 kt south winds and seas 29 ft at 40S 143W aimed north. On Tues AM (6/8) the gale was easing east with 35-40 kt south winds over a small area and seas fading from 21 ft at 40S 141W aimed north. No additional fetch anticipated. Whatever swell is to be generated is to arrive in sync with swell from the Central Pacific Gale (above).
Deep Central Pacific Gale
On Wed PM (6/9) a tiny gale developed in the deep South Central Pacific producing 45 kts southwest winds pushing off the Ross Ice Shelf producing 27 ft seas at 64S 152W aimed northeast. On Thurs AM (6/10) fetch was fading from 40-45 kts from the west-southwest with seas 30 ft at 63S 142W aimed east-northeast. Fetch and seas are to be gone in the evening. Small swell to result for South and Central America with barely perceptible energy up ito the US West Coast.
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (6/19) building to 1.5 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell continues on Sun (6/20) at 1.8 ft @ 16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading on Mon (6/21) from 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 200 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (6/19) building to 1.3 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell continues on Sun (6/20) at 1.9 ft @ 16 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading on Mon (6/21) from 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 200 degrees
Small Southwest Pacific Gale
On Thurs AM (6/10) a fetch of southwest winds started building southeast of New Zealand on Thurs AM (6/10) at 50+ kts over a tiny area getting traction and producing seas of 28-30 ft near 56.75S 168.25W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds were fading from 45 kts over a small area pushing east fast with seas 35 ft over a tiny area at 56S 163.5W aimed east-northeast. On Fri AM (6/11) fetch pushed east at 40 kts with seas 27 ft at 55S 146W aimed east. This system is to be gone after that. Something to monitor but swell likely to be buried in stronger swell arriving at the same time.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.
Beyond 72 hours secondary fetch is to develop Tues PM (6/15) in the Central South Pacific with 40 kt west winds and seas building. Fetch building Wed AM (6/16) from 45-50 kts from the west with seas 27-28 ft at 52S 133.5W aimed east. In the evening 50-55 kt southwest winds to be aimed northeast while falling south with seas 31 ft at 50S 128W aimed east. On Thurs AM (6/17) 50-55 kt southwest fetch is to be in the deep Southeast Pacific producing 38 ft seas at 58.5S 122.5W aimed northeast. The gale is to fall south from there and of no interest. Some more hope.
Kelvin Wave Eruption Occurring near Ecuador - SOI Lowest in a Year
Summary - A combination of 2 Kevin Waves appears to be erupting over the Galapagos. The forecast suggests continued west anomalies in the KWGA for the next 3 months, but only weakly.
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).
Overview: A double dip La Nina occurred through the Winter of 2017-2018. Warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In 2019, those warm waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that looked like the start of La Nina, with it fully developing into La Nina in July 2020. We continue in the place in March 2021, but with a Kelvin Wave sweeping east late in March possibly signaling the demise of La Nina.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Spring/Summer 2021 = 4.0/3.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: It is assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 is on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state will set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But lingering effects of La Nina are forecast to continue over the Pacific for some time as the upper atmospheric circulation slowly transitions to an ENSO neutral state. This scenario tend to favor the Southeast Pacific, therefore favoring California over Hawaii. To counter that is the forecasted movement of the low pressure bias currently in-flight from the Maritime Continent to the West Pacific over the next 3 months. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a slightly less than normal swell production forecast. A somewhat reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected as compared to normal over the South Pacific during the early summer season, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by the Fall and early Winter of 2021/22, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (6/11) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific then moderate east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and light east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (6/12) modest east anomalies were filling the KWGA. The forecast calls for moderate east anomalies slowly easing east and fading in the KWGA gone by 6/17 with weak west anomalies showing signs of returning at the end of the model run on 6/19.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
- MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (6/11) A neutral MJO pattern was indicated over the Pacific today. The statistic model projects a weak Active Phase building in the West KWGA at days 10 and 15 of the model run. The dynamic model projects a continuation of the neutral MJO pattern through day 15.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (6/12) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was exceedingly weak over North Africa today and is to track east to the Maritime Continent on day 15 at weak status. The dynamic model suggests the Active Phase holding it's position and strength through day 15 of the model run.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (6/11) A weak Inactive Phase (dry air) was moving over the KWGA today with a weak Active pattern east of there. The Inactive Phase (dry air) is to push east into Central America 7/1 while the Active Phase dissipates in place. A second pulse of the Inactive Phase is follow in the west on 7/1 pushing into Central America at the end of the model run on 7/21. A new weak Active Phase is to build in the west on 7/6 moving to the Central Equatorial Pacific at the end of the model run.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/11) This model depicts no MJO signal present in the Pacific today with weak east anomalies over the dateline and east KWGA. The forecast indicates no discernible MJO signal present for the next month with generalized weak west anomalies in the far West KWGA and weak east anomalies holding over the dateline and east KWGA through the end of the model run on 7/9.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/12 - using the 4th/latest ensemble member): Today the Active Phase of the MJO was weak over the KWGA. Weak east anomalies were mostly filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates the Active Phase of the MJO is to continue over the KWGA through 7/12 with weak west anomalies rebuilding on 6/18 reaching to the dateline till 6/27, then being replaced by weak east anomalies into 7/6, with west anomalies returning at weak status after that. Weak west anomalies are forecast mostly filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 9/9 while a weak Inactive Phase tries to develop 6/7-7/23, followed by a weak Active Phase on 7/17 through the end of the model run. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias is in control over the Central Pacific (with one contour line) filling the eastern KWGA but a low pressure bias was over the West KWGA filling the western 2/3rds of it to 165E. The high pressure bias was reaching east into the Southwest US. This contour line is to shift steadily east to 130W on 7/8 holding till 7/21 then rebuilding west to the dateline. A single contour low pressure bias is to ease east reaching 165-170E in early July, then retrograding to 150E at the end of the model run. This suggest nearly a return to a weak La Nina pressure pattern by the Fall. But overall we are moving to a neutral ENSO position. East anomalies that have been solid over the KWGA since 10/1/20 are fading and have now migrating east of the KWGA with no return in sight, instead focused over the East Pacific (from the dateline east to a point south of California - aka the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge). The end of La Nina is here according to NOAA. But atmospherically we suspect its remnants will linger into Jan of 2022.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (6/12) Today in the far West Pacific the 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 159W. The 24 deg isotherm was pushing the whole way across the equatorial Pacific and was 100 meters deep at 140W and 30 meters deep in the east. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +2 deg C were in the West Pacific reaching east to 173W and +2 deg anomalies were filling the East Pacific from 145W and points east of there pushing to the surface at 110-120W. No cool anomalies were indicated. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 6/7 indicates much the same. Negative anomalies in the East Pacific were all but gone with residuals getting squeezed to the surface by the Kelvin Wave near Peru. But a break in the warm flow was indicated at 140W 125 meters down. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (6/7) A decrease in sea heights continued over the equator with readings 0 to +5 cms over the dateline and points west and then from 110W and points east of there with neutral anomalies in between. The massive cold triangle that had previously formed over the equator is gone. The demise of La Nina is occurring now.
Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (6/11) The latest images show steadily warming water temps building on the equator across the width of the Pacific and effectively contiguous with marked warming building just off Ecuador and over the Galapagos and a little west of there. Perhaps the Kelvin Wave is erupting. A previous upwelling event (cool anomalies) was all but gone along Peru and getting steadily weaker. A pocket of warm water was off Ecuador and Central America up to Southern Baja. Overall this seems to indicate the late stages of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (6/11): Marked warming was occurring along North Peru up to Ecuador and over the Galapagos with lesser warming out to 110W. Perhaps this is a sign of an upwelling warm water event.
Hi-res Overview: (6/11) Weakly warmer than normal waters were on the equator from Ecuador to the dateline with a distinct pocket of warming along Ecuador and the Galapagos. Elsewhere a generic area of warm water was west of Central America. A mix of generic cool and warm water was west of Peru. A very weak area of cool water was along the immediate coast of Peru and fading fast. La Nina appears to be in retreat but not gone.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/12) Today's temps were rising steadily to -0.086, the highest since 3/16 when they briefly hit +0.714 degs. But in between they've been in the -0.75 range. The longterm trend has been stable.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/12) Today temps were falling some at +0.171 after peaking at +0.219 today (the highest is a year). Previously they peaked at +0.085 on (6/1), beating the previous peak high of +0.040 on 5/3. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3. Temps are on a steady increase.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (6/12) - Actuals per the model indicate temps have been steadily rising from early Nov at -1.25 degs up to to -0.25 degs in mid-May and -0.05 in early June. The forecast indicates temps holding at -0.05 degs into mid-July, then starting a slow decline falling to -0.70 degs in mid-Oct and holding to mid-Jan before rising to -0.30 degs in early Feb 2022. This model suggests a return of near La Nina conditions this fall, with an ENSO neutral trend returning in the Winter. There is no sense that El Nino will develop.
IRI Consensus Plume: The May 20, 2021 Plume depicts temps are at -0.14 degs today, and are to rise to 0.00 in Sept e and stabilizing there through Jan 2022. Most models are suggesting were are nearly normal now and are to hold there into the early months of 2022.
See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator) (6/12): The daily index was rising to 1.41. The 30 day average was falling to -1.32, the lowest in a year after peaking at +19.51 on 1/14. The 90 day average was rising slightly at +1.28 after falling to it's lowest point in a year on 6/10 at +1.14. The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 on 2/23 (clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan 2019 -0.18, Feb -0.50 Mar -0.23, April +0.10, May +0.14, June -0.11, July +0.44, Aug -0.14, Sept +0.05, Oct -0.96, Nov -0.28, Dec +0.01, Jan 2020 -1.17, This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2018 +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131
Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ
Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.
Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table