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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Friday, June 4, 2021 1:51 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
2.9 - California & 2.2 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 5/31 thru Sun 6/6

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

SE Pacific Swell Hitting CA
Tasman Sea Swell Poised for HI

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Friday, June 4, 2021 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 3.3 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 2.0 ft @ 13.5 secs from 188 degrees. Water temp 78.8 degs (Pearl Harbor 233), 79.0 (Lani 239).
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 4.6 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 3.7 ft @ 6.6 secs from 324 degrees. Water temp 78.1 degs.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.1 ft @ 12.8 secs with swell 1.1 ft @ 13.4 secs from 196 degrees. Wind at the buoy was southeast at 4-6 kts. Water temperature 61.3 degs, 64.4 (Topanga 103), 62.6 degs (Long Beach 215), 66.0 (Del Mar 153), 63.3 (Pt Loma 191). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 3.6 ft @ 11.8 secs from 269 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.4 ft @ 14.5 secs from 197 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 3.3 ft @ 13.8 secs from 199 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 3.1 ft @ 13.6 secs from 194 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 7.4 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 4.5 ft @ 13.2 secs from 230 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was northwest at 14-18 kts. Water temp 49.1 (029), 54.7 degs (SF Bar 142) and 55.0 degs (Santa Cruz 254).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Friday (6/4) North and Central CA had waves at head high or so and junky and lumpy from light northwest wind and mushed with poor form. Protected breaks were chest high and somewhat lined up and a bit warbled and crumbled and soft from a modest onshore flow. At Santa Cruz surf was chest to head high and lined up and clean but soft. In Southern California/Ventura waves were chest and lined up and clean but inconsistent. Central Orange County had set waves at head high and lined up coming from the south with occasionally decent form and clean early. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at head high and super lined up and real clean and peeling early. North San Diego had sets waves at chest high or so and clean and pretty closed out. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was getting minimal swell with sets waist high or so and lined up and clean. The East Shore report was getting limited east windswell with waves thigh to waist high and chopped from modest east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Friday (6/4) California was getting southerly angled swell associated with a small gale that formed in the upper reaches of the Southeast Pacific on Wed-Thurs (5/27) with up to 38 ft seas aimed northeast with 28-30 ft seas lingering into Fri (5/28). Hawaii was getting the last tiny remnants of south swell from a gale previously south of New Zealand. Beyond a gale formed in the Tasman Sea on Sat-Sun (5/30) producing 28 ft seas aimed north. Swell is radiating towards the Islands. The good news is a gale is forecast for the Southeast Pacific Sun-Mon (6/7) producing up to 36 ft seas aimed east-northeast. And possibly another broader system is to set up southeast of New Zealand on Fri (6/11). So the Southern Hemi again has some hope. And a late season gale developed in the Western Gulf Wed-Fri (6/4) producing up to 25 ft seas aimed east. So a bit of a downturn then things are to perk up some.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Friday (6/4) swell from a small gale that developed in the Gulf of Alaska was tracking towards the US West Coast (see Gulf Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.

 

Gulf Gale
A gale developed in the far Western Gulf of Alaska on Wed AM (6/2) producing 45 kt west winds and seas building from 20 ft at 44N 175.5W aimed east. In the evening 45 kt west winds continued while the gale pushed east with seas 25 ft at 45.75N 166.8W aimed east. On Thurs AM (6/3) the gale was moving into the Central Gulf with 35 kt west winds and seas 24 ft at 46.25N 159.5W aimed east. The gale was fading in the evening with 30 kt west winds and seas fading from 21 ft at 47N 151.5W aimed east. The gale quickly dissipated from there. Small swell is radiating towards the US West Coast.

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (6/6) building to 5.3 ft @ 13-14 secs (7.0 ft) but buried in locally generated north windswell. swell fading on Mon (6/7) fading from 4.5 ft @ 11 secs (4.5-5.0 ft) but again buried in local windswell. Swell Direction: 300 degrees

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are occurring nor forecast.

California Nearshore Forecast

  • Sat (6/5) northwest winds are to be building over North CA at 20-25 kts early and 15-20 kts for Central CA building in the afternoon to 30-35 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA with windswell production on the increase.
  • Sun (6/6) northwest winds are forecast at 30-35 kts for North CA south of Cape Mendocino and 10 kts for Central CA early with 20 kt northwest winds extending well up into the Gulf of Alaska and holding into the afternoon. Windswell production on the increase.
  • Mon (6/7) northwest winds to be 20-25 kts mainly from Pt Arena to the Golden Gate and 15-20 kts southward to Big Sur early fading in the afternoon to 20 kts for North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA. Windswell production fading.
  • Tues (6/8) northwest winds are to be 10 kts for North CA and 10-15 for Central CA early and holding all day. Windswell production gone.
  • Wed (6/9) northwest winds are to be 10 kts for North CA and 20 kts south of Monterey Bay early building to 15 kts for North Ca in the afternoon and holding at 20 kts in Central CA.
  • Thurs (6/10) A broad low pressure system is to be off North CA with light winds for North CA early and northwest winds 20 kts south of Monterey Bay early holding all day but with south winds 10 kts for Cape Mendocino.
  • Fri (6/11) south winds are to be 10-15 kts for Cape Mendocino and calm south of there building from the north at 15-20 kts south of Monterey Bay early.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches respectively.

Freezing level 14,000+ ft today and holding into 6/6, then falling to 8,500 ft on 6/7-6/8 rising some on 6/9 to 10,500 ft and then up to 14,000 ft late on 6/11 and holding through 6/14.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level (more here - scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!

 

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Friday (6/4) the influential southern branch of the jet was building under New Zealand but falling southeast and pushing into the Ross Ice Shelf over the Central South Pacific offering no support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours the jet is to continue ridging south while building wind energy positioned over the northern edge of Antarctic Ice over the Central South Pacific near 65S on Sat (6/5) then sweeping east while weakening on Sun (6/6) offering no support for gale development. Back to the west the jet is to remain set well south and weak offering nothing either. Beyond 72 hours starting Mon (6/7) the jet is to start lifting northeast from 160W up into the Southeast Pacific with winds energy building to 110 kts perhaps feeding development of a gale in the Central to Southeast Pacific. But the ridge is to hold over the Southwest Pacific. But late Thurs (6/10) the southern branch is to start lifting northeast being fed by 150 kts winds producing a trough over the Central South Pacific and that trough building in coverage while lifting northeast to 50S with winds to 170 kts on Fri (6/11) offering good support for gale development. Something to monitor.


Surface Analysis
On Friday (6/4) tiny swell was fading in HI from a small gale previously southeast of New Zealand (see Tiny New Zealand Gale below). Also decent swell was still hitting California from a gale previously in the upper reaches of the far Southeast Pacific (see Southeast Pacific Gale below). And swell is pushing towards Hawaii from a gale previously in the Tasman Sea (see tasman Sea Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours a gale is forecast developing Sun AM (6/6) in the deep South Central Pacific producing 50 kt southwest winds and seas building from 29 ft at 63.25S 159,75W aimed northeast. The gale is to lift northeast in the evening with 45 kts southwest winds and seas building to 36 ft at 60S 146.25W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (6/7) the gale is to be fading while lifting northeast with 40-45 kt south winds and seas 31 ft at 57S 136.5W aimed northeast. In the evening the gale is to be fading with southwest winds 35 kts and moving to the eastern edge of the CA swell window with 31 ft seas at 55S 125.5W aimed northeast. The gale is to be gone after that. Something to monitor.

 

Tiny New Zealand Gale
A gale developed southeast of New Zealand Sun PM (5/23) producing 45 kt south winds with seas building from 24 ft at 57S 175W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (5/24) southwest winds were still 40-45 kts with seas 29 ft at 59.5S 161W aimed northeast. Fetch faded in the evening from 30-35 kts with seas seas fading from 25 ft at 59.25S 155W aimed northeast. This system was gone after that. Low odds of any swell resulting.

Hawaii: Residuals fading on Fri (6/4) from 1.3 ft @ 12-13 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 181 degrees

California: Whatever swell arrives in CA is to be buried in potentially stronger swell arriving from the Southeast Pacific.

 

Southeast Pacific Gale
A gale developed in the upper latitudes of the Southeast Pacific on Wed AM (5/26) producing 40-50 kt south winds over a tiny area with seas building from 21 ft at 35S 137W aimed northeast. In the evening 55-60 kt south to southwest winds built producing 38 ft seas at 34.25S 128.25W aimed northeast. On Thurs AM (5/27) the gale was holding with 45-55 kt southwest winds tracking east and seas 39 ft at 33.25S 120.25W aimed northeast. In the evening the gale was falling south fast with 35-45 kt southwest winds and 36 ft seas at 39.25S 116.5W aimed northeast and east of the CA swell window but with a secondary fetch 35-40 kts over a solid area from the southwest with seas 26 ft at 41S 130.5W aimed northeast. On Fri AM (5/28) 35-45 kt west and southwest winds held position with seas 30 ft at 44S 120W aimed mostly east. In the evening the gale held position producing south and southwest winds at 30-35 kts aimed northeast with seas 26-28 ft at 43.5S 120W aimed northeast. On Sat (5/29) south winds were fading from 35 kts with seas 24 ft at 50S 135W aimed north. Fetch and seas fading fast from there. Some swell is radiating north towards the US West Coast.

Southern CA: Swell holding through the day Fri (6/4) at 3.1 ft @ 14-15 secs (4.5 ft). Swell fading on Sat (6/5) from 2.7 ft @ 14 secs (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell fading on Sun (6/6) from 2.4 ft @ 14 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Residuals on Mon (6/7) fading from 2.2 ft @ 13-14 secs (3.0 ft). Dribbles on Tues (6/8) fading from 2.0 ft @ 12-13 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 190 degrees

North CA: Swell fading on Sat (6/5) from 2.8 ft @ 14-15 secs (4.0 ft). Swell fading on Sun (6/6) from 2.2 ft @ 14 secs (3.0 ft). Residuals on Mon (6/7) fading from 1.9 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5 ft). Dribbles on Tues (6/8) fading from 2.0 ft @ 13 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 190 degrees

 

Tasman Sea Gale
On Fri AM (5/28) a gale started building in the Tasman Sea producing 40 kt south winds just off the coast of Australia with seas building from 26 ft at 36S 156E aimed north. in the evening fetch held from the south at 35 kts filling the Tasman Sea producing seas of 26 ft at 32S 157E aimed northeast. A secondary fetch developed Sat AM (5/29) at 40 kts from the south in the Central Tasman Sea with seas 26 ft at 40S 162E aimed north. In the evening 40 kt south winds held aimed north with seas 29 ft at 37.5S 163E aimed north. On Sun AM (5/30) fetch was fading from 35 kts with seas fading from 27 ft at 34.5S 165.75E aimed north. The gale dissipated from there. Swell is pushing northeast towards Hawaii but it will be filtered by Fiji.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Fri (6/4) building to 1.6 ft @ 15-16 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell building on Sat (6/5) to 1.7 ft @ 15 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell holding through the day Sun (6/6) at 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Dribbles on Mon (6/7) fading from 1.3 ft @ 13-14 secs early (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell gone after that. Swell Direction: 222 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours there is suggestions that a broad low pressure system might develop starting Wed (6/9) in the Northern Gulf falling southeast to a point just off North CA on Fri (6/11) producing up to 18 ft seas at 42.5N 150W mid-Thurs (6/10) aimed southeast. Maybe some windswell to result.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a broad elongated fetch of west to southwest winds are to start building under New Zealand on Thurs AM (6/10) trying to get traction on the oceans surface southeast of New Zealand with seas building from 25 ft at 54.5S 169.75W aimed east-northeast. In the evening fetch is to get more consolidated southeast of New Zealand at 35-40 kts with seas building to 27 ft at 54.5S 175.5W aimed northeast. More of the same is forecast on Fri AM (6/11) with 29-30 ft seas at 52S 170W aimed east-northeast. Something to monitor.

 

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Weak Active MJO Trying to Set Up - Weakly Warmer Water Continues Building on Equator
Summary - A combination of 2 Kevin Waves appears stalled at the Galapagos. The forecast suggests continued west anomalies in the KWGA for the next 3 months.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.
And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: A double dip La Nina occurred through the Winter of 2017-2018. Warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In 2019, those warm waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that looked like the start of La Nina, with it fully developing into La Nina in July 2020. We continue in the place in March 2021, but with a Kelvin Wave sweeping east late in March possibly signaling the demise of La Nina.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Spring/Summer 2021 = 4.0/3.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It is assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 is on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state will set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But lingering effects of La Nina are forecast to continue over the Pacific for some time as the upper atmospheric circulation slowly transitions to an ENSO neutral state. This scenario tend to favor the Southeast Pacific, therefore favoring California over Hawaii. To counter that is the forecasted movement of the low pressure bias currently in-flight from the Maritime Continent to the West Pacific over the next 3 months. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a slightly less than normal swell production forecast. A somewhat reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected as compared to normal over the South Pacific during the early summer season, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by the Fall and early Winter of 2021/22, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (6/3) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific then strong east east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the East KWGA fading to moderate east over the West KWGA. Anomalies were light east over the East equatorial Pacific and light east over the Central Pacific and light east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (6/4) a mix if weak east and west anomalies were over the KWGA. The forecast calls for weak west anomalies getting better coverage over the KWGA till 6/9 then east anomalies building in the core of the KWGA to near strong strength peaking at the end of the model run on 6/11.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (6/3) A neutral MJO pattern was indicated over the Pacific today with the Inactive Phase building over the Maritime continent. The statistic model projects the Inactive Phase tracking east in to the West KWGA at day 5 of the model run and filling it on day 10, then building to near strong status on day 15. The dynamic model projects the Inactive Phase far weaker barely reaching modest status on day 15 of the model run.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (6/4) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over the East Pacific today and is to track east to the Central Indian Ocean on day 15 at either moderate or weak/non-existent status. The dynamic model suggests the same thing with the Active Phase at non-existent status on day 15 in the Central Indian Ocean.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (6/3) A modest Inactive Phase (dry air) was over the East Pacific and is to push east into Central America on 6/15. A second stronger pulse of the Inactive Phase (dry air) is to be building over the KWGA on 6/10 pushing east to the East Pacific and over Central America on 6/30. A new weak Active Phase is to build in the west on 6/27 moving to the East Equatorial Pacific at the end of the model run on 7/13 while the Inactive Phase builds in the far West KWGA.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/3) This model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO was over the Maritime Continent and KWGA with modest west anomalies mostly filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates weak west anomalies holding over the KWGA for the next week (6/10) then retrograding to the far West KWGA as east anomalies and a very weak Inactive MJO signal build over the KWGA 6/11 through 6/18. After that weak west anomalies to redevelop in the West KWGA to almost the dateline 6/19-7/1 with weak east anomalies on the dateline.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/4 - using the 4th/latest ensemble member): Today the Active Phase of the MJO was building over the KWGA. Weak west anomalies were mostly filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates the Active Phase of the MJO is to build over and filling the KWGA through 7/14 with weak west anomalies reaching to the dateline through that time period. East anomalies are to be just east of the dateline and filling the Central and East Pacific over this duration. A weak Inactive Phase is to try and develop 7/1-7/20 over the KWGA and again on 7/30-8/7 with a weak Active Phase in between. But again weak west anomalies are to prevail in the KWGA. East anomalies are to hold solid from the dateline eastward. A new Active Phase is to be moving into the far West KWGA on 8/12 holding through the end of the model run with west anomalies holding as before to the dateline. No significant east anomalies are forecast in the confines of the KWGA moving forward. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias is in control over the Central Pacific filling the eastern KWGA but a low pressure bias was over the West KWGA filling the western half of it to 150E. The high pressure bias has 2 contour lines reaching east to a point south of the Southwest US. The second contour line is to fade 6/9. The remaining 1 is to be shifting steadily east and losing coverage and no longer in the KWGA by 7/6. A single contour low pressure bias is over the Maritime Continent with it's leading edge half way through the KWGA (at 150E) today. The east edge of the low pressure bias is to ease east reaching 165E on 6/15 and holding there into late July , then retrograding to the far West KWGA on 8/31 while the high pressure bias rebuilds/retrogrades west to about the half way point into the KWGA. This suggest nearly a return to La Nina for the Fall. We are moving to a neutral ENSO position. East anomalies that have been solid over the KWGA since 10/1/20 are fading and have now migrating east of the KWGA with no return in sight, instead focused over the East Pacific (from the dateline east to a point south of California - aka the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge). The end of La Nina is here according to NOAA. But atmospherically we suspect it will linger into Jan of 2022.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (6/4) Today in the far West Pacific the 28 deg isotherm line was backtracking from 154W to 159W. The 24 deg isotherm was pushing the whole way across the equatorial Pacific and was 100 meters deep at 140W. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +2 deg C were in the West Pacific reaching east to 173W and +3 deg anomalies were filling the East Pacific from 150W and points east of there pushing near the surface at 110W but just 5 meters under it and holding that way into Ecuador. No cool anomalies were indicated. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 5/28 indicates much the same with 1-2 deg warm anomalies moving east subsurface to 100W and reaching to the surface there indicative of a Kelvin Wave poised off the Galapagos. Negative anomalies in the East Pacific were all but gone with residuals getting squeezed to the surface by the Kelvin Wave near Peru. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (5/28) A slight increase in sea heights was indicated with readings 0 to +5 cms over almost the entire equatorial Pacific and nearly continuous (again). No negative anomalies were present on the equator and mostly along the coasts of Peru, Central America and up to Baja Mexico or Southern California. The massive cold triangle that had previously formed over the equator is gone. The demise of La Nina is occurring now.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (6/3) The latest images show steadily warm water temps building on the equator across the width of the Pacific. A previous upwelling event (cool anomalies) was all but gone along Peru and getting steadily weaker. A pocket of warm water was off Ecuador and Central America up to Southern Baja. Another weak pocket of warm water was off Chile and outer waters off Southern Peru. Overall this seems to indicate the late stages of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (6/3): A neutral to weak warming temperature trend was along Peru and Ecuador. Otherwise a neutral temperature trend was indicated. There was no clear signs of an upwelling warm water event (yet).
Hi-res Overview: (6/3) Weakly warmer than normal waters were on the equator from Ecuador to the dateline. Elsewhere a generic area of warm water was west of Central America. A mix of generic cool and warm water was west of Peru. A very weak area of cool water was along the immediate coast of Peru and fading fast. La Nina appears to be in retreat but not gone.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/4) Today's temps were steady at -0.714 and have been in the -0.75 range since early April. Before that temps peaked at +0.714 on 3/16. The longterm trend has been stable.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(6/4) Today temps were rising slightly to +0.074 today after peaking at +0.085 on (6/1), beating the previous peak high of +0.040 on 5/3, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3, rising to to -0.982 on 1/21. Temps are on a steady increase.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (6/4) - Actuals per the model indicate temps have been steadily rising from early Nov at -1.25 degs up to to -0.25 degs in mid-May. The forecast indicates temps rising to 0.00 degs in late June holding into mid-July, then starting a slow decline falling to -0.45 degs in mid-Oct and holding to mid-Jan before rising to -0.20 degs in early Feb 2022. This model suggests a demise of La Nina with an ENSO neutral trend beyond biased slightly negative. There is no sense that El Nino will develop.
IRI Consensus Plume: The May 20, 2021 Plume depicts temps are at -0.14 degs today, and are to rise to 0.00 in Sept e and stabilizing there through Jan 2022. Most models are suggesting were are nearly normal now and are to hold there into the early months of 2022.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator) (6/4): The daily index was falling at -14.13. The 30 day average was falling to +4.45, previously down to o +0.02 on 4/26, and that after peaking at +19.51 on 1/14. The 90 day average was rising slightly at +1.81, up slightly from its lowest in a year on 5/25 and 5/31 at +1.55. The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 on 2/23 (clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan 2019 -0.18, Feb -0.50 Mar -0.23, April +0.10, May +0.14, June -0.11, July +0.44, Aug -0.14, Sept +0.05, Oct -0.96, Nov -0.28, Dec +0.01, Jan 2020 -1.17, This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2018 +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


Powerlines Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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