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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Monday, June 3, 2019 2:48 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
3.0 - California & 1.5 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 6/3 thru Sun 6/9

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Central SPac Swell Hitting CA
2 Gales Possible Under New Zealand Longterm

On Monday, June 3, 2019 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/ Buoy 239 (Lanai) Seas were 3.6 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 1.8 ft @ 12.7 secs from 176 degrees.
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 3.8 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 2.3 ft @ 8.3 secs from 112 degrees.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.5 ft @ 15.9 secs with swell 1.6 ft @ 15.5 secs from 154 degrees. Wind at the buoy was northwest at 10-12 kts. Water temperature 61.2 degs. At Harvest (Buoy 071) primary swell was 2.5 ft @ 10.1 secs from 283 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.8 ft @ 15.8 secs from 200 degrees. At Camp Pendleton (043) swell was 2.1 ft @ 16.0 secs from 214 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.3 ft @ 16.6 secs from 199 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 6.9 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 4.0 ft @ 9.8 secs from 304 degrees and New Zealand swell 1.8 ft @ 14.7 secs from 194 degrees. Wind at the buoy (013) was northwest at 8-10 kts. Water temp 57.7 degs (042) and 51.1 (013).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

Current Conditions
On Monday (6/3) in North and Central CA local north windswell was producing waves at waist to maybe chest high and warbled with some texture on top making for mushed and slightly jumbled conditions. Protected breaks were waist high and soft and mushy but mostly clean but weak and barely rideable. At Santa Cruz Central South Pacific swell was arriving producing set waves at waist to maybe chest high and clean and lined up but inconsistent. In Southern California/Ventura local windswell was producing waves at waist high on the sets and weak but a little bit lined up and textured though there was no wind. In North Orange Co surf was chest to head high plus on the sets and really lined up but textured from north wind. South Orange Country's best summertime breaks were also getting the same swell with waves head high on the sets and really lined up but textured from northerly wind. North San Diego had surf at waist to chest high and lined up but again textured from northerly wind. Hawaii's North Shore was flat to thigh high and clean. The South Shore was getting minimal leftover Central Pacific sideband swell with waves to waist high on the sets and clean. The East Shore was getting east windswell at chest high and chopped early from east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Monday (6/3) in California New swell from the Central South Pacific was arriving making for rideable surf in many locations. Hawaii was getting the fading last remnants of the same swell. This swell originated from a gale that developed in the Central South Pacific Sat-Mon (5/27) with seas 34-39 ft pushing northeast towards targets mainly east of Hawaii. But after that no swell producing weather systems have occurred and none are forecast with the MJO turning Inactive. The models are hinting at a pair of gale forming under New Zealand next weekend, but that's too far off to be believable just yet.

See all the details below...


Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Surface Analysis
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast other than local windswell (see below).

Windswell Outlook
On Monday (6/3) the usual summer time pressure gradient was holding off North CA producing north winds at 20-25 kts over a modest sized area producing minimal windswell radiating south into Central CA. For Hawaii east fetch was fading from 15 kts limited to the area 600 nmiles east of the Islands with windswell fading some there. On Tues (6/4) the gradient is to build south some producing north winds at 20-25 kts over North CA nearshore waters producing more modest north windswell with northwest winds remaining light over nearshore Central CA waters but 15-20 kts just of the coast down to Morro Bay resulting in some windswell there. Winds to fade east of Hawaii to 15 kts in a small local pocket offering no real windswell production potential. Wednesday (6/54) no real change is expected except with the gradient falling south some with 20-25 kt north winds from South Cape Mendocino down to Pigeon Point producing modest north windswell and generally poor conditions southward to Big Sur. No windswell expected for Hawaii. On Thursday (6/6) the gradient is to build in coverage with northwest winds expanding covering all of North and Central CA at 20 kts with a core to 25 kts from South Cape Mendocino to the Golden Gate. Windswell size holding in CA. Trades to be less than 15 kts approaching Hawaii producing no meaningful windswell.


  North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height


Tropical Update
No tropical weather systems of interest are forecast.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Monday (6/3) north winds to be 20-25 kts for North CA early and light for Central CA if not an eddy flow and holding later. Tues (6/4) north winds to be 20-25 kts for North CA and 10 kts from the north for Pt Reyes southward. Wed (6/5) north winds to hold at 20-25 kts for North CA down to the Golden Gate and 10 kts south of there into Central CA building to 15 kts later. Thurs (6/6) north winds to be 20-25 kts nearshore for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA nearshore early building to 20-25 kts later day. Fri (6/7) north winds to be 25 kts all day for North and Central CA building to 30 kts later in pockets. Sat (6/8) north winds to be 25-30 kts for North CA and 10-15 kts from the north for Central CA. Sunday (6/9) north winds are to be 25 kts only for Cape Mendocino and and eddy flow (south winds) to be in control south of there. Monday (6/10) light winds are forecast for the entirety of the California coast.

No snow is forecast. Summer is here.

Snow Models: (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts).


South Pacific

On Monday (6/3) the jetstream was reasonably consolidated but in the northern branch with the more influential southern branch all but gone except for a ridge pushing south over the Southeast Pacific effectively suppressing support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours through Thurs (6/6) no real change is forecast but a strong bust of wind energy is to be tracking east under New Zealand at 160 kts offering some hope beyond. Beyond 72 hours starting Fri (6/7) a strong trough is to start building under New Zealand pushing hard north with it's apex up at 33S 170W and offering great support for gale development but then getting a bit pinched off while weakening fast later on Sat (6/8). Beyond a solid ridge is to be building over the Southeast Pacific Saturday and holding through Mon (6/10). Theoretically at that time new wind energy is to start pushing northeast from well under New Zealand possibly setting up another trough and support for gale development.

Surface Analysis  
A gale developed in the Central South Pacific tracking east generating swell that is starting to hit California now (see Central South Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast in the grater South Pacific.

But a gale is forecast develop south of Tasmania Wed AM (6/5) with 45 kt southwest winds and seas 40 ft at 50S 149.5 E aimed northeast targeting Fiji well. Fetch is to continue northeast into the Tasman Sea in the evening with 40 kts south-southwest winds and seas 38 ft at 45S 159E aimed well at Fiji. On Thurs AM (6/6) the fetch is to be just west if not impacting New Zealand at 35-40 kts aimed north-northeast with seas fading from 34 ft at 42.5S 167W aimed like the wind. The gale and seas to fade from there. Possible swell to result for Fiji and the surrounding area.


Central South Pacific Gale
A new gale developed in the Central South Pacific on Sat AM (5/25) with 40 kts southwest winds over a modest area aimed northeast generating 29 seas at 50S 158.5W. In the evening fetch tracked northeast and fragmented some at 35-45 kts in pockets with 28 and 30 ft seas near 47S 145W aimed northeast. The gale faded Sun AM (5/26) with 35 kt southwest winds and seas fading from 28 ft at 46.5S 137.5W aimed northeast while a new gale/fetch started building right behind the original one with 40-45 kt southwest winds building and seas to 28 ft at 51S 159.5W aimed northeast. In the evening only the new fetch remained producing 50 kt south winds pushing northeast over a tiny area with 39 ft seas over a tiny area at 51S 151W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (5/27) the gale tracked northeast while fading with 45 kt south winds and seas fading from 37 ft over a small area at 49S 143W aimed northeast. Fetch is to fade in the evening from 40 kts over a tiny area aimed northeast with 38 ft seas at 49S 135W aimed northeast. Fetch is to fade Tues AM (5/28) from 35 kts and starting to fall southeast with seas fading from 32 ft at 48S 128W aimed east. The gale faded from there. Something to monitor.

Southern CA: Swell holding on Mon (6/3) at 2.2 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Secondary energy building to 2.1 ft @ 18 secs later (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell fading some on Tues (6/4) from 2.2 ft @ 14 secs (3.0 ft). Additional secondary energy building to 2.7 ft @ 16-17 secs (4.5 ft). Swell holding on Wed (6/5) at 3.0 ft @ 15 secs (4.5 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (6/6) from 2.6 ft @ 14 secs (3.5 ft). Swell fading on Fri (6/7) from 2.2 ft @ 13-14 secs (3.0 ft). Dribbles on Sat (6/8) fading from 2.0 ft @ 13 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 197-200 degrees

North CA: Swell holding on Mon (6/3) at 2.0 ft @ 16 secs (3.0 ft) with secondary swell building to 1.6 ft @ 19 secs later (3.0 ft). Primary swell fading some on Tues (6/4) from 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft) with secondary energy building to 2.2 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.5 ft). Swell holding on Wed (6/5) at 2.2 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.5 ft). Swell dissipating on Thurs (6/6) fading from 1.5 ft @ 14 secs (2.0 ft). Dribbles on Fri (6/7) fading from 1.6 ft @ 15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Residuals on Sat (6/8) fading from 1.5 ft @ 14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 186-201 degrees focused on 192.0-197.8 degrees


South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height




Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.

Windswell Outlook
On Friday (6/7) the usual summertime pressure gradient is to build along the North and Central CA coast with north winds 25 kts and with imbedded pockets to 30 kts producing raw local windswell and poor conditions. East winds are to extend west from California reaching to a point within 600 nmiles of Hawaii perhaps starting to produce windswell but not yet reaching the Islands. On Sat (6/8) the gradient is to lift north some with north winds 30 kts off all of North CA while fading to 20 kts and holding nearshore for Central CA making for jumbled raw northwest windswell at exposed breaks. The 15 kts fetch previously targeting Hawaii is to dissipate. Perhaps some limited windswell from previous fetch to arrive along east facing shores of the Hawaiian Islands. On Sun (6/9) north fetch is to be limited to North Ca waters at 25 kts producing windswell radiating south into Central CA but with an eddy flow (south winds) there making for improving conditions. No windswell producing fetch is to be targeting Hawaii. Monday (6/10) the gradient is to be lifting north with north winds 25 kts limited to Cape Mendocino with an eddy flow south of there to Pt Conception. Minimal north windswell is to be produced. No change for Hawaii.


South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours starting Thurs PM (6/6) a gale is to be pushing east under New Zealand with 45 kt west winds aimed east with seas building to 41 ft at 59S 152E aimed east. On Fri AM (6/7) fetch is to start turning and lifting northeast with fetch at 45 kts from the southwest producing 39 ft seas at 58S 164E aimed east-northeast. In the evening the gale is to be just south-southeast of New Zealand with southwest winds 40 kts over a solid area aimed northeast and seas 39 ft at 55S 172E aimed northeast. On Sat AM (6/8) the gale is to be tracking northeast just off the coast of New Zealand with 30-35 kts south winds over a large area aimed north-northeast with seas fading from 33 ft at 52S 179.5E aimed northeast. In the evening the gale is to ease east still producing 30-35 kt south winds but with a new core to 40 kts aimed north and seas 29 ft at 47S 173W. On Sun AM (6/9) the gale is to hold stationary still producing a small area of 40-45 kts south winds aimed north with seas 29 ft at 48S 163W aimed northeast. The gale is to fade out in the evening producing a tiny area of 40 kt southwest winds aimed northeast with seas 34 ft at 44.5S 159W aimed northeast. The gale to fade from there.

Another gale is to be tracking east under the Tasman Sea on Sat PM (6/8) producing 45 kt west winds and seas building. On Sun Am (6/9) 45 kt west fetch is to be pushing south of New Zealand with 39 ft seas at 59.5S and 162E aimed east. Fetch is to lift northeast in the evening at 40-45 kts with 39 ft seas at 57S 168E aimed east-northeast. The gale is to track northeast Mon AM (6/10) with 40 kt southwest winds and 38 ft seas at 55S 180W aimed northeast. The gale is to fade from there.


MJO/ENSO Forecast


Inactive MJO In Control

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration but then in July east anomalies started building in the KWGA and did not stop, with cold water upwelling over the the Nino1.2 and 3.4 areas, indicative of La Nina. A double dip La Nina was in control and continued through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June warm water was fading and the outlook did not favor El Nino come Fall.

Summer 2019 = 5.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: Assuming the PDO has moved to the warm phase and that weak borderline El Nino condition continue , and assuming a weak ocean-atmospheric coupling holds and ocean temperature anomalies in Nino3.4 hold in the +0.8 deg range, there is good probability for slightly enhanced storm production in the South Pacific during the Northern Hemisphere Summer time months. There is slightly increased intensity in number of storm days and storm intensity, resulting in slightly increased odds for larger than normal swell, with increased duration and higher than normal period. This should be significantly better than the past 2 Summer seasons.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (6/1) 5 day average winds were solidly from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific turning moderate east over the Central Pacific then turning calm in the West Pacific. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and Central Pacific turning weak westerly over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (6/3) east anomalies were in control of the whole of the KWGA with no west anomalies to be found. The forecast is for east anomalies filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 6/10. There is to be steadily decreasing support for storm development for the next week and likely beyond.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (6/2) An Inactive MJO pattern was fully filling the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates the Inactive Phase holding steady in the core of the KWGA while fading through day 5 of the model run then all but gone at day 10. The Active Phase is to be moving into and starting to fill the far West Pacific solidly at day 15. The dynamic model indicates a variation on the same theme with the Inactive Phase holding position while slowly fading but filling the KWGA through day 5, then fading and lingering in the far West Pacific at day 10 with the Active Phase moving into the far West Pacific at day 15. The 2 models are mostly in sync.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (6/3) The statistical model depicts a modest Active Phase of the MJO over the Indian Ocean, and is forecast to push east over the Maritime Continent at day 15 while substantially weakening. The GEFS model suggests a variation on the same theme but with the Active Phase a little stronger but not even moderate in strength over the Maritime Continent at day 15.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model): (6/3) This model depicts a strong Inactive Phase over the Central Pacific today and is to push east into Central America on 6/11. A modest Active MJO signal is to build over the West Pacific 6/14 pushing east to Central America on 7/8. Another moderate Inactive Phase is to start building over the West Pacific 7/8 moving to the Central Pacific at the end of the model run on 7/13.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/1) This model depicts the Inactive Phase of the MJO was filling the KWGA today with east anomalies building into the West Pacific with no substantial west anomalies indicated. The forecast has east anomalies tracking east through the KWGA through 6/10 then fading with weak west anomalies filling the KWGA 6/13 through the end of the model run on 6/29.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/3) This model depicts a moderate Inactive Phase of the MJO was filling the KWGA today and forecast tracking east and filling the KWGA through 6/18 with very weak east anomalies in the KWGA near the dateline through 6/12, then turning neutral onward if not weakly westerly on 6/14 and beyond. A weak Active Phase is to develop 6/22 and slowly building holding in the KWGA through 8/6. Weak west anomalies are to be in the KWGA during that winds and modestly strong 6/15-6/21. The Inactive Phase is to build weakly 8/8 through the end of the model run on 8/31. The low pass filter indicates a low pressure bias with 2 contour lines is in control of the KWGA centered on the dateline reaching east to California. The second contour line is to fade on 6/19 but the remaining single remaining contour line is to hold through the end of the model run, contrary to previous runs which suggest it is to fade on 7/28. Still a low pressure bias is to build in the Indian Ocean on 8/12 and holding there through the end of the model run. It looks like La Nina is to try and develop in the Fall. This model indicates that a tendency towards El Nino was previously in control during the Fall of 2018, but has been steadily fading since then and is to continue a steady decline into mid-August, then possibly shifting to the Indian Ocean then. Basically we are moving from a pattern biased towards El Nino to one biased towards ENSO neutral if not La Nina.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (6/2) Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 30 degs over a building area reaching east to 174W (previously 160E) while the 29 degs isotherm was steady at 155W today. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 136W. It appears Kelvin Wave #3 was nearly done erupting in the East Pacific. The 24 deg isotherm was pushing into Ecuador but not 30 meters down, but 20 meters. Anomaly wise, gentle warm anomalies are filling the entire subsurface Pacific at +1 degs from the surface to 150 meters down (deepest on the dateline). There was a +2 deg pocket at 125W (Kelvin Wave #3) and perhaps another building in from the west reaching east to 170E today (possible start of Kevin Wave #4). The hi-res GODAS animation posted 5/28 indicates warm water from Kelvin Wave #3 was filling the equatorial Pacific from 150E at +1 degs reaching east to 105W. There was no evidence a Kelvin Wave was yet developing from WWB #4 that occurred from 5/1-5/26 on this model though a pocket of +2.5 deg anomalies was building at 170W. A small pocket of cool water was drawing up from depth to the surface in the east at 100W. A previous stream of warm water flowing into the far West Pacific at 140E was gone. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (5/28) Positive anomalies were all but gone over the equatorial Pacific except with one modest area between 165E to 150W (West Pacific) attributable to a WWB #4 that occurred there 5/1-5/26 and a smaller one at 125W (Kelvin Wave #3) . From this data it looks like the Kelvin Wave #3 was dissipating in the east and maybe Kelvin Wave #4 was weakly developing under the dateline.

Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (6/2) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate warm temps were steady from 10S to 20N on the equator from Ecuador to the dateline. Warming that was very pronounced from Peru up to Ecuador and up to Mexico west to 105W last week then faded some later last week was rebuilding today and solid. Otherwise temps on the equator were slightly warmer than normal compared to recent days west of there. There is some weak indication of a El Nino but nothing strong.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (6/2): A previous cooling trend was holding today from Ecuador west over the Galapagos and in pockets out to 125W. Warming was limited to the equator from 125W to the dateline.
Hi-res Overview: (6/2) Warmer than normal water was from Ecuador west over the Galapagos 20 degrees north and south of the equator continuing west of there to the dateline. It was holding compared to days past.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/3) Today's temps were steady and down alot from days previous at -0.564 down from a peak of +1.235 on 5/27.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(6/3) Today temps were rising slightly today at +0.859 today. Temps have been generally rising the last week.

Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (6/3) The model indicates temps were +0.75 degs in May and are to hold till June 1. After that a downward trend is indicated falling to +0.50 July 1 down to +0.40 in October, then fading to +0.15 in Dec before rising slightly to +0.20 degs on Fed 1, 2020. A weak El Nino like pattern is to hold into early Fall, then slowly fading through the later Fall into Winter of 2019/20 to neutral with no more Kelvin Waves forecast per this model. A multiyear warming event previously in progress looks likely to stall according to this model.
IRI Consensus Plume: The May 2019 Plume depicts temps are at +0.70 degs today, and are to hold in the +0.65 range into October, then fading to +0.60 through Dec 2019. See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (6/3): The daily index was negative today at -16.87, negative the past 16 days. The 30 day average was falling at -9.24 today suggesting a steady Active MJO. The 90 day average was steady at -5.77, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern biased towards El Nino (for now).
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): (April) +0.34, March +1.0, Feb +1.29, Jan +0.193. It is approaching El Nino territory but still indicted mostly ENSO neutral conditions.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO is weakly positive, even though La Nina is in play.
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan -0.23, Feb -0.55 This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

Powerlinessurf Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest

Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (6/2):
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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table


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