Saturday, June 1, 2019
- Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/ Buoy 239 (Lanai) Seas were 4.1 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 1.7 ft @ 12.1 secs from 181 degrees.
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 4.0 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 2.9 ft @ 8.8 secs from 195 degrees.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.7 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 2.2 ft @ 14.2 secs from 195 degrees. Wind at the buoy was west at 6 kts. Water temperature 59.7 degs. At Harvest (Buoy 071) swell was 2.2 ft @ 14.7 secs from 208 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.7 ft @ 14.6 secs from 204 degrees. At Camp Pendleton (043) swell was 2.0 ft @ 14.8 secs from 217 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.3 ft @ 13.9 secs from 196 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 7.9 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 5.3 ft @ 8.5 secs from 318 degrees and New Zealand swell 2.4 ft @ 14.7 secs from 193 degrees. Wind at the buoy (013) was northwest at 16-21 kts. Water temp 56.7 degs (042) and 50.2 (013).
See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Saturday (6/1) in North and Central CA local north windswell was producing waves at chest high and warbled and with south texture making for mushed and jumbled conditions again. Protected breaks were waist high and soft and clean but weak and barely surfable. At Santa Cruz New Zealand swell was still hitting producing set waves at maybe chest high and clean and lined up but inconsistent. In Southern California/Ventura local windswell was producing waves at thigh to waist high on the sets and weak but clean. In North Orange Co surf was chest high on the sets and fairly clean but with some texture but no wind coming from the south and a bit soft. South Orange Country's best summertime breaks were chest high on the sets and super clean and soft but lined up. North San Diego had surf at waist to maybe chest high and lined up and clean but with some minor warbled intermixed. Hawaii's North Shore was still getting small windswell with waves waist high or so at top breaks and lined up and clean. The South Shore was getting minimal leftover New Zealand swell with waves to waist high high on the sets and clean and lined up. The East Shore was getting east windswell at waist to chest high and chopped early from east trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Saturday (6/1) in California a mixture of fading New Zealand swell was still hitting buried in local north windswell at exposed breaks. Hawaii was getting remnant Central South Pacific swell on the south side and minimal easterly warp around windswell on the north side. One last small gale developed in the Central South Pacific on Sat-Mon (5/27) with seas 34-39 ft pushing northeast to targets mainly east of Hawaii. But after that no swell producing weather systems have occurred and none are forecast with the MJO turning Inactive.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast other than local windswell (see below).
On Saturday (6/1) a pressure gradient was still producing north winds 20-25 kts over North CA early and light winds nearshore over Central CA but 20 kts offshore generating more windswell for North and Central CA breaks with 15+ kt east winds continuing into Hawaii offering east windswell there as well. On Sunday (6/2) the gradient is to fade in coverage and velocity off North California with north winds 20 to barely 25 kts limited mainly to the Cape Mendocino area with 15 kt north winds off the coast of Central CA producing fading north windswell. That fetch is to continue at 15 kts reaching the East Shores of the Hawaiian Islands producing windswell there. On Monday (6/3) north winds and the gradient are to hold off North CA at 20-25 kts over a slightly larger area producing windswell radiating down into Central CA but with the fetch approaching Hawaii fading from 15 kts limited to the area 600 nmiles east of the Islands and windswell fading some there. By Tues (6/4) the gradient is to build south some producing north winds at 20-25 kts over North CA nearshore waters producing building moderate north windswell with northwest winds remaining light over nearshore Central CA waters but 15-20 kts just of the coast down to Morro Bay resulting in some windswell there. Winds to fade east of Hawaii to 15 kts in a small local pocket offering no real windswell production potential.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical weather systems of interest are forecast.
California Nearshore Forecast
On Saturday (6/1) north winds were 25 kts nearshore for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA per the model but in actuality a south eddy flow at 5 kts was in control nearshore. Sun (6/2) north winds to be 20-25 kts for Cape Mendocino and 10 kts south of there down into Central CA and likely an eddy flow from the south. Monday (6/3) north winds to be 20-25 kts for North CA early and light for Central CA if not an eddy flow and building up north to near 30 kts later. Tues (6/4) north winds to be 20-25 kts for North CA and 10 kts from the north for Pt Reyes southward. Wed (6/5) north winds to hold at 20-25 kts for North CA down to the Golden Gate and 15 kts south of the into Central CA building to 20-25 kts later. Thurs (6/6) north winds to be 25-30 kts nearshore for North CA and 20-25 kts for Central CA nearshore all day. No change on Fri (6/7). Sat (6/8) north winds to be 20-25 kts for North CA and 10 kts from the north for Central CA.
Snow forecast for the Sierra through the week ending Sat PM (6/8): 0 inches and 0 inches for Mammoth. Snow levels 10,000 ft or higher building to 12.300 ft. Summer is coming.
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts).
On Saturday (6/1) the jetstream was split with the northern branch having most of the energy but the more influential southern southern forming a steep trough with it's apex over North New Zealand and mostly landlocked offering no support for gale development. East of there the jet was ridging firmly south over the Central South Pacific then pushing north again into another developing trough mostly east of the Southern CA swell window with it's apex at 116W. Over the next 72 hours starting Sun (6/2) the weak ridging pattern is to continue holding over the Central South Pacific pushing over Antarctic Ice and sliding east filling the Southeast Pacific by Tuesday (6/4). The trough previously over New Zealand is to push east free and clear of New Zealand on Sun (6/2) but with winds so weak (70 kts) as to provide no support for gale development. The trough in the far Southeast Pacific is to build some on Sun (6/2) being fed by 110 kt southwest winds and holding at at least 100 kts into early Tues (6/4) offering some support for gale development, then dissipating. Beyond 72 hours a ridge is to start building in the the far Southwest Pacific reaching south to 65S over Antarctic Ice and pushing quickly east to 150W on Thurs AM (6/6) and then reaching across the entirety of the South Pacific by Fri (6/7) completely shutting down support for gale development. The ridge is to hold into Sat (6/8) but showing signs of weakening but with no clear indication of what is to come next. For now we'll assume there is to be no support for gale development.
A decent gale formed under New Zealand sweeping east (see New Zealand Gale below). And another gale developed behind that (see Central South Pacific Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.
New Zealand Gale
A gale started developing just south of New Zealand on Sun AM (5/19) with 40 kt southwest winds and seas building from 31 ft at 49.5S 175E aimed northeast. In the evening fetch was building in coverage at 40 kts from the southwest with seas 33 ft at 47.5S 174W aimed northeast (216 degs Scal and shadowed, 214 degs NCal and unshadowed). Fetch was fading Mon AM (5/20) from the southwest at 35 kts over a small area with seas 31 ft at 45S 167W aimed northeast. In the evening additional fetch was building at 40-45 kts from the southwest over a small area with seas 29 ft at 43.5S 160W aimed northeast. On Tues AM (5/21) fetch was holding while falling southeast some at 40-45 kts from the south and southwest with 31 ft seas at 43S 158W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch held at 40-45 kts from the southwest with 35 ft sea at 46S 148W aimed northeast (200 degrees SCal and unshadowed, 199 degrees NCal and unshadowed). Fetch held at 40 kts from the southwest on Wed AM (5/22) with seas 31 ft over a solid area at 44S 153W aimed northeast (203 degs SCal and unshadowed, 201 degs NCal and shadowed). The gale is to fade in the evening with 35 kts south-southwest winds over a solid area aimed northeast with 28-30 ft seas at 40.5N 139W aimed northeast. The gale collapsed Thurs AM (5/23) with 30-35 kts southwest winds fading in coverage and seas fading from 27 ft at 43S 134W aimed east. Swell is pushing northeast.
Southern CA: Swell fading Sat (6/1) from 2.4 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.5 ft). Residuals on Sun (6/2) fading from 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 203-210 degrees
North CA: Swell fading Sat (6/1) from 1.6 ft @ 14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 201-213 degrees
Central South Pacific Gale
A new gale developed in the Central South Pacific on Sat AM (5/25) with 40 kts southwest winds over a modest area aimed northeast generating 29 seas at 50S 158.5W. In the evening fetch tracked northeast and fragmented some at 35-45 kts in pockets with 28 and 30 ft seas near 47S 145W aimed northeast. The gale faded Sun AM (5/26) with 35 kt southwest winds and seas fading from 28 ft at 46.5S 137.5W aimed northeast while a new gale/fetch started building right behind the original one with 40-45 kt southwest winds building and seas to 28 ft at 51S 159.5W aimed northeast. In the evening only the new fetch remained producing 50 kt south winds pushing northeast over a tiny area with 39 ft seas over a tiny area at 51S 151W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (5/27) the gale tracked northeast while fading with 45 kt south winds and seas fading from 37 ft over a small area at 49S 143W aimed northeast. Fetch is to fade in the evening from 40 kts over a tiny area aimed northeast with 38 ft seas at 49S 135W aimed northeast. Fetch is to fade Tues AM (5/28) from 35 kts and starting to fall southeast with seas fading from 32 ft at 48S 128W aimed east. The gale faded from there. Something to monitor.
Hawaii: Dribbles on Sat (6/1) fading from 1.5 ft @ 12-13 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 182 degrees
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (6/2) building to 2.1 ft @ 17 secs (3.5 ft). Swell holding on Mon (6/3) at 2.2 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Secondary energy building to 2.1 ft @ 18 secs later (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell fading some on Tues (6/4) from 2.2 ft @ 14 secs (3.0 ft). Additional secondary energy building to 2.7 ft @ 16-17 secs (4.5 ft). Swell holding on Wed (6/5) at 3.0 ft @ 15 secs (4.5 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (6/6) from 2.6 ft @ 14 secs (3.5 ft). Swell fading on Fri (6/7) from 2.2 ft @ 13-14 secs (3.0 ft). Dribbles on Sat (6/8) fading from 2.0 ft @ 13 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 197-200 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (6/2) building to 1.6 ft @ 17-18 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell holding on Mon (6/3) at 2.0 ft @ 16 secs (3.0 ft) with secondary swell building to 1.6 ft @ 19 secs later (3.0 ft). Primary swell fading some on Tues (6/4) from 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft) with secondary energy building to 2.2 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.5 ft). Swell holding on Wed (6/5) at 2.2 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.5 ft). Swell dissipating on Thurs (6/6) fading from 1.5 ft @ 14 secs (2.0 ft). Dribbles on Fri (6/7) fading from 1.6 ft @ 15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Residuals on Sat (6/8) fading from 1.5 ft @ 14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 186-201 degrees focused on 192.0-197.8 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.
Windswell wise on Wednesday (6/5) north winds to be building south in coverage and velocity from 25-30 kts over all of North CA down into Big Sur and 20 kts to Pt Conception resulting in building windswell but also poor local conditions. no easterly fetch of interest is forecast relative to Hawaii. On Thurs (6/6) the gradient is to hold if not build in coverage with north winds 25 kts over all of North and Central CA resulting in raw local north windswell with poor conditions. Easterly fetch is to be extending from California to a point 500 nmiles east of Hawaii but not quite far enough west yet to result in windswell for the Islands. On Fri (6/7) no change is forecast with north winds building to 25-30 kts for all of North and Central CA with raw local windswell in control. East winds are to get no closer to Hawaii likely resulting in no windswell there. Finally on Sat (6/8) the gradient is to lift north some while fading with north winds 20-25 kts limited to North Ca nearshore waters and 20 kts off the coast of Central CA producing smaller windswell with improving conditions for Central CA. No change is forecast relative to Hawaii with east winds 15 kts limited from the space from California east to within 600 nmiles of Hawaii but no closer. Moderate odds of east windswell radiating west towards exposed east facing shores in Hawaii.
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.
Inactive MJO Developing - Kelvin Wave #4 Weakly Possible
The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).
Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration but then in July east anomalies started building in the KWGA and did not stop, with cold water upwelling over the the Nino1.2 and 3.4 areas, indicative of La Nina. A double dip La Nina was in control and continued through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June warm water was fading and the outlook did not favor El Nino come Fall.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Summer 2019 = 5.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: Assuming the PDO has moved to the warm phase and that weak borderline El Nino condition continue , and assuming a weak ocean-atmospheric coupling holds and ocean temperature anomalies in Nino3.4 hold in the +0.8 deg range, there is good probability for slightly enhanced storm production in the South Pacific during the Northern Hemisphere Summer time months. There is slightly increased intensity in number of storm days and storm intensity, resulting in slightly increased odds for larger than normal swell, with increased duration and higher than normal period. This should be significantly better than the past 2 Summer seasons.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (5/31) 5 day average winds were solidly from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific turning moderate east over the Central Pacific then turning light easterly in the West Pacific. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific but turning light west in the Central Pacific and modest westerly over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (6/1) east anomalies were building into the western KWGA with no west anomalies to be found. The forecast is for east anomalies building and filling the KWGA by 6/3 and holding through the end of the model run on 6/8. There is to be steadily decreasing support for storm development for the next week and likely beyond.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:
OLR Models: (5/31) An Inactive MJO pattern was fully filling the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates the Inactive Phase holding steady in the core of the KWGA while fading through day 10 of the model run then all but gone at day 15. The Active Phase is to be moving into the far West Pacific solidly at day 15. The dynamic model indicates a variation on the same theme with the Inactive Phase holding position while slowly fading but filling the KWGA through day 5, then fading and lingering in the far West Pacific at day 15 with the Active Phase still locked over the Indian Ocean. The 2 models are mostly in sync.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (6/1) The statistical model depicts a modest Active Phase of the MJO over the Indian Ocean, and is forecast to push east over the Maritime Continent at day 15 while substantially weakening. The GEFS model suggests a variation on the same theme.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model): (6/1) This model depicts a strong Inactive Phase over the Central Pacific today and is to push east across the Pacific and into Central America on 6/11. A moderate Active MJO signal is to build over the West Pacific 6/14 pushing east to Central America on 7/6. A weak Inactive Phase is to start building over the West Pacific 7/6 moving to the Central Pacific at the end of the model run on 7/11.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (5/29) This model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO was gone in the KWGA today with patchy moderate west anomalies still lingering on the dateline. The forecast has east anomalies in the west KWGA into 6/2 but with west anomalies still present but weak filling the KWGA into 6/13. After that weak east anomalies are to develop in the core of the KWGA 6/14 till 6/24, then dissipating with with west anomalies setting up again filling the KWGA on 6/25 till the end of the model run on 6/26.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/1) This model depicts a moderate Inactive Phase of the MJO was filling the KWGA today and forecast tracking east and filling the KWGA through 6/18 with very weak east anomalies in the KWGA near the dateline through 6/4, then turning neutral onward if not weakly westerly on 6/14 to 6/24. A weak Active Phase is to develop 6/26 building east through 7/7 with the Active Phase fully building in the KWGA 7/8-8/20. Weak west anomalies are to be in the KWGA 7/11-8/15 then fading to neutral. The low pass filter indicates a low pressure bias with 2 contour lines is in control of the KWGA centered on the dateline reaching east to California. The second contour line is to fade on 6/26 and the remaining single remaining contour line is to dissipate on 7/28 while starting to rebuild in the Indian Ocean and holding there through the end of the model run. It looks like La Nina is to try and develop in the Fall. This model indicates that a tendency towards El Nino was previously in control during the Fall of 2018, but has been steadily fading since then and is to continue a steady decline into mid-August, then possibly shifting to the Indian Ocean then. Basically we are moving from a pattern biased towards El Nino to one biased towards ENSO neutral if not La Nina.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (6/1) Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 30 degs over a small area reaching east to 160E while the 29 degs isotherm was steady at 155W today. The 28 deg isotherm line was at 160W mid-Nov into late Feb. But it made a major push east from 150W on 3/16 reaching Ecuador on 5/5, then started retrograding and today was steady at 136W. It appears Kelvin Wave #3 was nearly done erupting in the East Pacific. The 24 deg isotherm was pushing into Ecuador but not 30 meters down, but 18 meters. Anomaly wise, gentle warm anomalies are filling the entire subsurface Pacific at +1 degs from the surface to 150 meters down (deepest on the dateline). There was a +2 deg pocket at 125W (Kelvin Wave #3) and perhaps another building in from the west reaching east to 170E today (possible start of Kevin Wave #4). The hi-res GODAS animation posted 5/28 indicates warm water from Kelvin Wave #3 was filling the equatorial Pacific from 150E at +1 degs reaching east to 125W. There was no evidence a Kelvin Wave was yet developing from WWB #4 that occurred from 5/1-5/26 on this model though a pocket of +2.5 deg anomalies was building at 170W. A small pocket of cool water was drawing up from depth to the surface in the east at 100W. A previous stream of warm water flowing into the far West Pacific at 140E was gone. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (5/28) Positive anomalies were all but gone over the equatorial Pacific except with one modest area between 165E to 150W (West Pacific) attributable to a WWB #4 that occurred there 5/1-5/26 and a smaller one at 125W (Kelvin Wave #3) . From this data it looks like the Kelvin Wave #3 was dissipating in the east and maybe Kelvin Wave #4 was weakly developing under the dateline.
Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (5/31) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate warm temps were steady from 10S to 20N on the equator from Ecuador to the dateline. Warming that was very pronounced from Peru up to Ecuador and up to Mexico west to 105W earlier this week was fading some today but still solid. Otherwise temps on the equator were slightly warmer than normal compared to recent days west of there. There is some weak indication of a El Nino but nothing strong.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (5/31): A previous cooling trend was holding today from Ecuador west over the Galapagos and in pockets out to 125W. Warming was limited to the equator from 125W to the dateline.
Hi-res Overview: (5/31) Warmer than normal water was from Ecuador west over the Galapagos 20 degrees north and south of the equator continuing west of there to the dateline. It was holding compared to days past.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (5/29) Today's temps were falling fast at -0.580 down from a peak of +1.235 on 5/27.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/1) Today temps were rising slightly today at +0.905 today. Temps have been generally steady the last week.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (6/1) The model indicates temps were +0.75 degs in May and are to hold till June 1. after that a downward trend is indicated falling to +0.45 in July down to +0.25 in October, then fading to +0.025 in Dec before rising slightly to +0.10 degs on Fed 1, 2020. A weak El Nino like pattern is to hold into early Fall, then slowly fading through the later Fall into Winter of 2019/20 to neutral with no more Kelvin Waves forecast per this model. A multiyear warming event previously in progress looks likely to stall according to this model.
IRI Consensus Plume: The May 2019 Plume depicts temps are at +0.70 degs today, and are to hold in the +0.65 range into October, then fading to +0.60 through Dec 2019. See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (6/1): The daily index was negative today at -7.03, negative the past 14 days. The 30 day average was falling at -8.58 today suggesting a steady Active MJO. The 90 day average was steady at -5.63, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern biased towards El Nino (for now).
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): (April) +0.34, March +1.0, Feb +1.29, Jan +0.193. It is approaching El Nino territory but still indicted mostly ENSO neutral conditions.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO is weakly positive, even though La Nina is in play.
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan -0.23, Feb -0.55 This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave
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