Monday, May 27, 2019
- Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/ Buoy 239 (Lanai) Seas were 3.9 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 2.3 ft @ 14.7 secs from 195 degrees.
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 4.3 ft @ 10.5 secs with swell 3.3 ft @ 10.1 secs from 292 degrees.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.8 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 1.6 ft @ 14.4 secs from 210 degrees. Wind at the buoy was northwest at 12-18 kts. Water temperature 56.5 degs. At Harvest (Buoy 071) swell was 3.2 ft @ 9.9 secs from 315 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.7 ft @ 14.7 secs from 198 degrees. At Camp Pendleton (043) swell was 1.9 ft @ 15.4 secs from 220 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.0 ft @ 14.8 secs from 197 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 5.2 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 3.3 ft @ 8.3 secs from 316 degrees. Wind at the buoy (013) was northwest at 12-14 kts. Water temp 56.1 degs (042) and 50.9 (013).
See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Monday (5/27) in North and Central CA local north windswell was producing waves at waist high and a bit warbled but with clean surface conditions early. Protected breaks were thigh to waist high and soft and a bit warbled but clean and barely surfable. At Santa Cruz minimal southern hemi swell was producing waves at waist to occasionally chest high and clean but pretty slow. In Southern California/Ventura local windswell was producing waves at thigh high on the sets and weak and soft and heavily textured. In North Orange Co surf was chest to head high on the sets and fairly clean and lined up coming from the south but broken up by north windswell. South Orange Country's best summertime breaks were chest high but pretty warbled and textured with a mix of northwest windswell and southern hemi swell showing. North San Diego had surf at waist high and soft and a bit warbled and textured. Hawaii's North Shore was still getting small windswell with waves chest to head high at top breaks and lined up and clean. The South Shore was getting New Zealand swell with waves head high to nearly 2 ft overhead on the sets and clean and lined up. The East Shore was getting east windswell at waist to chest high and almost clean early with lighter east trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Monday (5/27) in California a mixture of fading background New Zealand swell was buried at exposed breaks by local northwest windswell. Hawaii was getting rideable windswell on the north side and Solid New Zealand swell on the south side. On Sun-Wed (5/23) a small gale tracked east from a point just under New Zealand with seas between 33-40 ft offering some swell that is hitting Hawaii now and bound for California. And another small gale developed in the Central South Pacific on Sat-Mon (5/27) with seas 34-39 ft offering more swell pushing northeast. But after that things are to settle down as the MJO turns Inactive.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Monday AM (5/27) minimal windswell was fading in California as northwest winds were dying along the California coast. On Tues (5/28) the gradient is to wake up again producing 15-20 kt north winds over North CA and covering all of Central CA too late afternoon producing building windswell. North windswell is to continue slowly building on Wed (5/29) with north winds 20-25 kts over North CA and 20 kts down over all of Central CA producing raw modest sized windswell at exposed breaks. On Thurs (5/3) the gradient is to fade in coverage some but still producing north winds 20-25 kts early over North and Central CA producing limited windswell. East winds are to build east of the Hawaiian Islands too at 15 kts offering some hope for easterly windswell there.
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast other than the above local windswell.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical weather systems of interest are forecast.
California Nearshore Forecast
On Monday (5/27) north winds to be 10-15 kts for all of North and Central CA building to 15 kts later. No rain forecast. Tues (5/28) north winds are forecast at 15 to near 20 kts for all of North and Central CA building to 20 kts solid later. No rain is forecast. Wednesday (5/29) north winds to be 25 kts for North CA and 20 kts and Central CA holding Thurs (5/23). Fri (5/31) north winds are to continue for North Ca at 20-25 kts but fading to 10 kts for Central CA. Sat (6/1) north winds to be 25 kts for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA. Sun (6/2) north winds to start at 25 kts for North CA building to 30-35 kts later while holding at 10 kts for Central CA. Monday (6/3) north winds to be 30-35 kts for North CA early and light for Central CA and fading all locations later.
Snow forecast for Tahoe for the week ending Mon PM (6/3): 0 inches and 0 inches for Mammoth. A significant warming of upper elevations is to start on Tues (5/28) building for at least the next 9 days.
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts).
On Monday (5/27) the jetstream was split with the southern branch riding weakly under New Zealand then lifting north some over the Central South Pacific forming a weak trough being fed by 100 kt winds and offering some limited support for gale development over the Central Pacific. East of the trough the jet was exceedingly weak and ridging south at 120W and on the edge of the California swell window actively suppressing gale formation. Over the next 72 hours the same pattern is to hold but with the trough moving east some Tues (5/28) being fed by 100 kts winds offering continued limited support for gale development while the weak ridge builds over over the Southeast Pacific. By Wed (5/29) the trough is to start being reinforced now relocated to the Southeast Pacific by 130 kt south winds and getting more carved out as a ridge builds under New Zealand and pushing east providing support for gale development in the far Southeast Pacific into Thurs (5/30). Beyond 72 hours starting Fri (5/31) the trough in the Southeast Pacific is to fade fast and move east of the California swell window providing no support for gale development. The ridging pattern previously under New Zealand is to be over the Central Pacific pushing east and weakening steadily into Mon (6/3) but still locking down swell production over most of the South Pacific. A trough is to build under New Zealand late Thurs into Fri (5/31) being fed by 130 kts south winds offering some hope over New Zealand but pinching off and weakening on Sat (6/1) while moving into the greater Southwest Pacific, likely offering only minimal support for gale development. And from Sun (6/2) onward a weak ridging pattern is to take over the Southwest Pacific too offering no support for gale production.
A decent gale formed under New Zealand sweeping east (see New Zealand Gale below). And another gale developed behind that (see Central South Pacific Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.
New Zealand Gale
A gale started developing just south of New Zealand on Sun AM (5/19) with 40 kt southwest winds and seas building from 31 ft at 49.5S 175E aimed northeast. In the evening fetch was building in coverage at 40 kts from the southwest with seas 33 ft at 47.5S 174W aimed northeast (216 degs Scal and shadowed, 214 degs NCal and unshadowed). Fetch was fading Mon AM (5/20) from the southwest at 35 kts over a small area with seas 31 ft at 45S 167W aimed northeast. In the evening additional fetch was building at 40-45 kts from the southwest over a small area with seas 29 ft at 43.5S 160W aimed northeast. On Tues AM (5/21) fetch was holding while falling southeast some at 40-45 kts from the south and southwest with 31 ft seas at 43S 158W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch held at 40-45 kts from the southwest with 35 ft sea at 46S 148W aimed northeast (200 degrees SCal and unshadowed, 199 degrees NCal and unshadowed). Fetch held at 40 kts from the southwest on Wed AM (5/22) with seas 31 ft over a solid area at 44S 153W aimed northeast (203 degs SCal and unshadowed, 201 degs NCal and shadowed). The gale is to fade in the evening with 35 kts south-southwest winds over a solid area aimed northeast with 28-30 ft seas at 40.5N 139W aimed northeast. The gale collapsed Thurs AM (5/23) with 30-35 kts southwest winds fading in coverage and seas fading from 27 ft at 43S 134W aimed east. Swell is pushing northeast.
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Sat (5/25) building to 2.3 ft @ 18 secs later (4.0 ft). Swell peaking on Sun (5/26) at 3.0 ft @ 16 secs (4.5-5.0 ft). Swell fading some on Mon (5/27) at 3.0 ft @ 14-15 secs early (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell fading on Tues (5/28) 2.3 ft @ 13-14 secs (3.0 ft) with secondary energy arriving and building to 1.6 ft @ 17-18 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Secondary swell peaking on Wed (5/29) at 2.0 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading Thurs (5/30) at 2.0 ft @ 13 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 192 degrees turning to 180 degrees for the secondary pulse.
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (5/27) with swell barely 1.6 ft @ 19 secs at sunset (3.0 ft) and inconsistent. Swell building on Tues (5/28) to 2.5 ft @ 17-18 secs (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell continues upwards on Wed (5/29) to 3.1 ft @ 16-17 secs later (5.0 ft). Swell holding Thurs (5/30) at 3.1 ft @ 16 secs (4.5-5.0 ft) early. Swell fading on Fri (5/31) from 2.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell fading Sat (6/1) from 2.4 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.5 ft). Residuals on Sun (6/2) fading from 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 203-210 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (5/27) with swell barely 1.3 ft @ 19 secs at sunset (2.5 ft) and inconsistent. Swell building on Tues (5/28) to 2.1 ft @ 17 secs (3.5 ft). Swell continues upwards on Wed (5/29) at 2.3 ft @ 16 secs early (3.5 ft) with additional swell building to 2.0 ft @ 18 secs later (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell holding Thurs (5/30) at 2.1 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft) and additional energy at 2.0 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Combined swell fading on Fri (5/31) from 2.0 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading Sat (6/1) from 1.6 ft @ 14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 201-213 degrees
Central South Pacific Gale
A new gale developed in the Central South Pacific on Sat AM (5/25) with 40 kts southwest winds over a modest area aimed northeast generating 29 seas at 50S 158.5W. In the evening fetch tracked northeast and fragmented some at 35-45 kts in pockets with 28 and 30 ft seas near 47S 145W aimed northeast. The gale faded Sun AM (5/26) with 35 kt southwest winds and seas fading from 28 ft at 46.5S 137.5W aimed northeast while a new gale/fetch started building right behind the original one with 40-45 kt southwest winds building and seas to 28 ft at 51S 159.5W aimed northeast. In the evening only the new fetch remained producing 50 kt south winds pushing northeast over a tiny area with 39 ft seas over a tiny area at 51S 151W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (5/27) the gale tracked northeast while fading with 45 kt south winds and seas fading from 37 ft over a small area at 49S 143W aimed northeast. Fetch is to fade in the evening from 40 kts over a tiny area aimed northeast with 38 ft seas at 49S 135W aimed northeast. Fetch is to fade Tues AM (5/28) from 35 kts and starting to fall southeast with seas fading from 32 ft at 48S 128W aimed east. The gale is to fade from there. Something to monitor.
Hawaii: Small sideband swell is to arrive on Thurs (5/30) building to 2.0 ft @ 15 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Fri (5/31) from 2.1 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Dribbles on Sat (6/1) fading from 1.5 ft @ 12-13 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 182 degrees
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (6/2) building to 2.1 ft @ 17 secs (3.5 ft). Swell holding on Mon (6/3) at 2.2 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 200 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (6/2) building to 1.6 ft @ 17-18 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell holding on Mon (6/3) at 1.9 ft @ 16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 197 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.
Windswell wise on Friday (5/31) high pressure is to be solid 750 nmiles west of Central CA producing the usual pressure gradient and north winds 20-25 kts over North CA waters and 20 kts off the Central CA coast producing moderate windswell all day. Trades are to be 15 kts solid over an area extending from California to Hawaii producing windswell there along exposed east facing shores. On Sat (6/1) the gradient is to be holding with north winds 20-25 kts over North CA early and light winds nearshore over Central CA but 20 kts offshore producing more solid windswell for North and Central CA with 15-20 kt winds continuing southeast and east into Hawaii offering windswell there as well. Sunday (6/2) the gradient is to build off North California with north winds 30-35 kts and 20 kts off the coast of Central CA producing building north windswell. That fetch is to continue at 15 kts reaching the East Shores of the Hawaiian Islands producing windswell there. On Monday (6/3) north winds and the gradient are to start fading over North CA dropping to 30 kts and still producing windswell radiating down into Central CA but with the fetch approaching Hawaii fading from barely 15 kts and windswell fading some there.
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.
That said a small gale is forecast developing just east of North New Zealand on Sat-Sun (6/2) possibly producing a tiny area of 30 ft seas aimed north at 38S 179W targeting Hawaii. Something to monitor.
Kelvin Wave #3 is Gone - Kelvin Wave #4 Looking Unlikely - El Nino is Fading
The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).
Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration but then in July east anomalies started building in the KWGA and did not stop, with cold water upwelling over the the Nino1.2 and 3.4 areas, indicative of La Nina. A double dip La Nina was in control and continued through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. As of January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then started building some late in Feb associated with another Kelvin Wave (#3).
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Summer 2019 = 5.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: Assuming the PDO has moved to the warm phase and that weak borderline El Nino condition continue , and assuming a weak ocean-atmospheric coupling holds and ocean temperature anomalies in Nino3.4 hold in the +0.8 deg range, there is good probability for slightly enhanced storm production in the South Pacific during the Northern Hemisphere Summer time months. There is slightly increased intensity in number of storm days and storm intensity, resulting in slightly increased odds for larger than normal swell, with increased duration and higher than normal period. This should be significantly better than the past 2 Summer seasons.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (5/26) 5 day average winds were solidly from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific turning light east over the Central Pacific then turning light westerly in the West Pacific. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific but weak west in the Central Pacific and strong westerly over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (5/27) moderate west anomalies were barely holding in the KWGA. The forecast is for west anomalies weakening steadily and gone by 5/30 then turning weak easterly and holding in the KWGA through the end of the model run on 6/3. There is to be steadily decreasing support for storm development starting 2 days out.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:
OLR Models: (5/26) An Inactive MJO pattern was developing in the West KWGA today. The statistic model indicates the Inactive Phase moving steadily east through the West Pacific filling the KWGA at day 5 at moderate strength and weakening while holding in the KWGA through day 15. The dynamic model indicates a variation on the same theme with the Inactive Phase making steady headway into the far West Pacific at day 5, then holding there while slowly decaying and barely present at day 15 still in the far West Pacific. The 2 models are mostly in sync.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (5/27) The statistical model depicts a modest Active Phase of the MJO over the East Atlantic, and is forecast to push east into the Central Indian Ocean at day 15 and becoming weak. The GEFS model suggests a variation on the same theme but with the Active Phase making it only to the West Indian Ocean, then collapsing and dissipating.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model): (5/27) This model depicts a strong Inactive Phase developing in the West Pacific today and is to push east across the Pacific and into Central America on 6/17. A modest Active MJO signal is to build over the West Pacific 6/14 pushing east to Central America at the end of the model run on 7/6. A weak Inactive Phase to start building over the West Pacific 7/6.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (5/26) This model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO was all but gone in the KWGA today with moderate west anomalies still filling the KWGA. The forecast has the Active Phase tracking east and no longer filling the bulk of the KWGA on 5/28 with west anomalies still present but weak on 6/3. A weak Inactive Phase is to push into the West KWGA on 5/29 tracking east but with no east anomalies forecast and instead weak west anomalies in the KWGA till 6/10, then weak east anomalies start building in the core of the KWGA holding through the end of the model run on 6/23.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (5/27) This model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO was fading fast over the dateline today and is forecast to be out of the KWGA on 5/29 with west anomalies fading in the KWGA. A moderate Inactive Phase of the MJO was developing in the West Pacific today and forecast to build east and filling the KWGA 6/1 through 6/27 but with very weak west anomalies in the KWGA near the dateline from 6/4 onward. A modest Active Phase is to develop 6/26 building east through 8/8 with weak west anomalies in the KWGA. A weak Inactive Phase is to follow 8/8 through the end of the model run on 8/24 with weak west anomalies fading out but not east anomalies forecast. The low pass filter indicates a low pressure bias with 2 contour lines is in control of the KWGA centered on the dateline reaching east to California. The second contour line is to fade on 6/26 and the remaining single remaining contour line is to dissipate on 8/7 while starting to rebuild in the Indian Ocean starting 8/8. It looks like La Nina is to try to develop in the Fall. This model indicates that a tendency towards El Nino was previously in control during the Fall of 2018, but has been steadily fading since then and is to continue a steady decline into mid-August, then possibly shifting to the Indian Ocean then. Basically we are moving from a pattern biased towards El Nino to one biased towards ENSO neutral if not La Nina.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (5/27) Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 30 degs over a small area reaching east to 156E while the 29 degs isotherm was steady at 156W today. The 28 deg isotherm line had retrograded west to 160W mid-Nov into late Feb. But it made a major push east starting 3/16 from 150W and reached Ecuador on 5/5, but started retrograding after that and today was steady at 138W. It appears Kelvin Wave #3 was nearly done erupting in the East Pacific. The 24 deg isotherm was pushing into Ecuador but not 30 meters down, but 15 meters. Anomaly wise, gentle warm anomalies are filling the entire subsurface Pacific at +1 degs from the surface to 150 meters down (deepest on the dateline). There was a +2 deg pocket at 120W (end of Kelvin Wave #3) and perhaps another building at 160E (possible start of Kevin Wave #4). The hi-res GODAS animation posted 5/23 indicates warm water from Kelvin Wave #3 was filling the equatorial Pacific from 150E eastward at +1 degs reaching east to 125W. There was no evidence a Kelvin Wave was yet developing from WWB #4 that occurred from 5/1-5/26 on this model. A small pocket of cool water was drawing up from depth to the surface in the east at 110W. A previous stream of warm water flowing into the far West Pacific at 140E was gone. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (5/23) Positive anomalies were all but gone over the equatorial Pacific except with one 1 small area between 160E to 170W (West Pacific) attributable to a WWB that occurred there 5/1-5/26. From this data it looks like the Kelvin Wave #3 has dissipated and maybe Kelvin Wave #4 was weakly developing.
Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (5/26) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate warm temps were building from 10S to 20N on the equator from Ecuador to the dateline. Warming was very pronounced from Peru up to Ecuador and up to Mexico west to 105W and holding. Otherwise temps on the equator were slightly warmer than normal compared to recent days west of there. There is some weak indication of a El Nino but nothing strong.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (5/26): A previous cooling trend was redeveloping today from Peru tracking northwest to the Galapagos. Warming was from 100W to 140W then weaker out to 160W on the equator. Otherwise weak warming was over the Central equatorial Pacific.
Hi-res Overview: (5/23) Warmer than normal water was from just off Peru up to Central America west over the Galapagos 20 degrees north and south of the equator continuing west of there to the dateline. It was holding compared to days past.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (5/27) Today's temps were rising fast at +1.235.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (5/27) Today temps were rising slightly today at +0.534 today. Temps have been generally steady the last week.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (5/27) The model indicates temps were +0.75 degs in May and are to hold till June 1 then falling to +0.45 in July and holding at +0.35 into October, then fading to +0.05 in Dec 1 then rising to +0.20 degs on Fed 1, 2020. A weak El Nino like pattern is to hold into early Fall, then slowly fading through the later Fall into Winter of 2019/20 with no more Kelvin Waves forecast. A multiyear warming event is weakly in progress as suggested by this model, but expected to fade.
IRI Consensus Plume: The May 2019 Plume depicts temps are at +0.70 degs today, and are to hold in the +0.65 range into October, then fading to +0.60 through Dec 2019. See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (5/27): The daily index was negative today at -18.98, negative the past 9 days. The 30 day average was falling some at -6.19 today suggesting a steady Active MJO. The 90 day average was down slightly at -5.20, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern biased towards El Nino (for now).
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): (4/23) There has been no update recently. At that time the index was neutral at -0.01 on 2/14 but has been rising ever since and pushed up to +0.99 on 3/3 (the highest its been in years), then fell some but started rising again and was up to +1.10 today. It is approaching El Nino territory but still indicted mostly ENSO neutral conditions.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO is weakly positive, even though La Nina is in play.
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan -0.23, Feb -0.55 This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave
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