Thursday, May 26, 2022
- Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt) NA: Seas were 2.9 ft @ 10.1 secs with swell 1.4 ft @ 13.8 secs from 195 degrees. Water temp 78.4 degs (Barbers Pt), 78.1 (Pearl Harbor 233).
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 4.8 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 3.6 ft @ 9.9 secs from 336 degrees. Water temp 77.7 degs.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.7 ft @ 17.2 secs with swell 1.9 ft @ 16.8 secs from 167 degrees. Wind southeast at 4-8 kts. Water temperature 62.1 degs, 63.1 (Topanga 103), 63.7 degs (Long Beach 215), 64.4 (Del Mar 153), 63.3 (Imperial Beach 155). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 1.9 ft @ 17.3 secs from 186 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.4 ft @ 17.3 secs from 202 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.5 ft @ 17.3 secs from 193 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.6 ft @ 17.7 secs from 180 degrees. Water temp 62.6 degs.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 3.7 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 1.8 ft @ 13.2 secs from 177 degrees. Wind at buoy 46012 was southeast at 12-14 kts. Water temp 49.1 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 47.5 (Pt Reyes 46013), 51.1 (46026), 52.9 (SF Bar 142), and 50.9 (Monterey Bay 46042).
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Thursday (5/26) North and Central CA had set waves at thigh to maybe waist high and blown out from south wind. Protected breaks were flat and clean. At Santa Cruz surf was waist to near chest high on the peaks and clean with decent form but inconsistent. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh high or so and lined up but with intermixed warble though wind was calm. Central Orange County had sets at chest to shoulder high and and lined up with decent form and fairly clean but with south wind trying to take hold. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at head high or so and lined up with great form and real clean but a bit inconsistent. North San Diego had sets at chest high and lined up and clean with decent form when they came. Hawaii's North Shore had some head high peaks at top spots and fairly clean but with northeast lump intermixed. The South Shore had a few waves to waist high and lined up and clean with decent form early but weak. The East Shore was thigh high and nearly chopped from moderate east trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Thursday (5/26) California was getting the leading edge of swell from a gale that formed over the Central South Pacific Tues-Wed (5/18) producing 32 ft seas aimed northeast. Hawaii was poised to start receiving swell from another gale formed under New Zealand moving northeast just off the coast there Fri-Sun (5/22) producing up to 35 ft seas aimed well north. That swell is tracking northeast bound for Hawaii starting Fri (5/27) and California 2 days later. Another gale followed southeast of New Zealand Mon-Tues (5/24) producing up to 29 ft seas aimed well northeast. And a third developed in the same location Tues-Fri (5/27) with up to 37 ft seas aimed well northeast. And then possibly a small system to develop in the upper reaches of the Central South Pacific Sun-Mon (5/30) with up to 36 ft seas aimed well northeast. Then things settle down for a while. So a possible decent week long run or more of swell is projected.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Thursday (5/26) no swell producing weather systems have occurred with no swell in the water or forecast immediately.
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored.
California Nearshore Forecast
- Fri (5/27) northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts for all of North and Central CA with no windswell production indicated. Northwest winds holding at 10 kts in the afternoon.
- Sat (5/28) south winds are forecast at 10 kts early for Cape Mendocino but light northwest winds 5-10 kts for the rest of North CA but up to 15 kts for Pt Conception. In the afternoon northwest winds return solidly at 15-20 kts for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA. Light rain possible from Bodega Bay northward mid-day into the later afternoon.
- Sun (5/29) the winds machine returns with northwest winds forecast at 15 kts for Cape Mendocino and 20-25 kts south of there to Pt Conception. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 25-30 kts all locations through 15 kts limited to Cape Mendocino. Light rain limited to Cape Mendocino.
- Mon (5/30) northwest winds hold at 25+ kts for all of North and Central CA holding all day.
- Tues (5/31) northwest winds are forecast fading from 20+ kts for all of North and Central CA early fading to 20 kts for Cape Mendocino later and 15 kts south of there to Pt Conception.
- Wed (6/1) northwest winds are forecast at 20 kts for North CA down to Bodega Bay early and 10-15 kts south of there to Pt Conception. No change in the afternoon.
- Thus (6/2) northwest winds are forecast at 15-20 kts for North CA early and 10-15 kts for Central CA. No change in the afternoon.
Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0.3 , 0.5, 0, and 0.4 inches all in the early morning hours of Monday (5/30).
Freezing level for the Tahoe area 12,500 ft today falling to 7,000 ft on 5/29 through 5/30 then building back to 12,000 ft on 6/1 and holding beyond.
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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).
On Thursday (5/26) the influential southern branch of the jet was lifting northeast east of New Zealand with winds 120 kts forming a broad trough still offering good support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours the New Zealand trough is to slowly track east while holding together solidly into Friday (5/27) offering continued support for gale development then weakening over the Southeast Pacific on Sun (5/29). Beyond 72 hours starting Sun (5/29) wind energy is to rebuild feeding the pre-existing trough to 110 kts digging the trough deeper over the Southeast Pacific on Mon (5/30) and building to 120 later in the day starting to again offer support for gale development through Tues (5/31). But a solid a ridge is to start building under New Zealand on Sun (5/29) pushing over the Ross Ice Shelf while sweeping east undercutting the trough later Tues (5/31) starting to actively suppress support for gale development and taking over the entirety of the South Pacific by Thurs (6/2).
Swell from a gale that formed over the Central South Pacific is starting to hit California (see Another Central South Pacific Gale below). And a gale developed under New Zealand lifted northeast with swell from it radiating north poised for Hawaii and eventually CA (see 1st New Zealand Gale below). A secondary gale formed under New Zealand behind the first producing some swell but likely masked by yet another stronger gale that formed right behind it under New Zealand. Swell for it is radiating northeast towards HI and the US West Coast (see 3rd New Zealand Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours starting Sat PM (5/28) a gale is forecast developing well southeast of New Zealand with 40-45 kts south winds over a small area with seas building from 23 ft at 57S 168W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (5/29) fetch is to build to 50 kts from the south over a small area aimed well north with seas 33 ft over a tiny area at 52.25S 159W. In the evening 45 kt south winds are to be pushing well north with seas 36 ft over a small area at 48.25S 153.5W aimed north. The gale is to collapse Mon AM (5/30) with 35 kts south winds fading and seas 31 ft at 46S 149W aimed north. This system is to be gone after that. Something to monitor.
Another Central South Pacific Gale
A gale formed in the South Central Pacific on Mon PM (5/16) producing a modest sized area of 40-45 kt south winds with seas building from 30 ft at 59.5S 159.5W aimed northeast. On Tues AM (5/17) southwest winds were growing in coverage at 35-40 kts with seas 27 ft over a moderate area at 55S 152W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds rebuilt to 40-45 kts solid moving to the Southeast Pacific with seas 32 ft at 55.75S 148W aimed northeast. On Wed AM (5/18) fetch pushed east at 35-40 kts from the southwest with seas 30 ft at 53S 135.25W aimed northeast. Fetch pushed northeast in the evening while fading from 30-35 kts from the southwest and seas fading from 28 ft at at 51.75S 126W. The gale was east of the Southeast CA swell window after that. No swell is to result for Hawaii with all energy focused on the US West Coast and more so for Central America.
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (5/26) building to 1.6 ft @ 16-17 secs mid day (2.5 ft). Swell building on Fri (5/27) to 2.1 ft @ 15 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell continues on Sat (5/28) at 2,1 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading Sun (5/29) from 2.0 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 195 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (5/26) building to 1.5 ft @ 17 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell building on Fri (5/27) to 1.8 ft @ 15-16 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell continues on Sat (5/28) at 2.2 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading Sun (5/29) from 2.1 ft @ 14 secs (3.0 ft) early. Swell Direction: 195 degrees
1st New Zealand Gale
A gale developed south of New Zealand on Fri AM (5/20) with 40-45 kts south winds and seas building. In the evening south to southwest winds were still 40-45 kts over a solid area just south-southeast of New Zealand with 32 ft at 52.75S 169.25E aimed northeast. On Sat AM (5/21) southwest winds were 40-45 kts just southeast of New Zealand producing 35 ft at 49.25S 177.5E aimed northeast. In the evening fetch was pushing east at 40+ kts over a solid area with seas 33 ft at 45.25S 176.75W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (5/22) winds faded from the southwest at 35-40 kts with seas 30 ft at 46.25S 167W aimed east-northeast. In the evening fetch was dissipating with seas from previous fetch fading from 24 ft at 45.5S 160W aimed east. Swell is radiating northeast.
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Fri (5/27) building to 1.6 ft @ 19 secs late (3.0 ft). Swell building steadily through the day Sat (5/28) to 2.3 ft @ 16 secs (3.5 ft). Swell continues on Sun (5/29) 1.9 ft @ 15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading on Mon (5/30) from 1.9 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 192 degrees
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (5/30) building to 1.6 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell builds some on Tues (5/31) to 1.9 ft @ 16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell holding on Wed (6/1) at 2.0 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading Thurs (6/2) from 1.4 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 212-217 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (5/30) building to 1.7 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell builds some on Tues (5/31) to 1.9 ft @ 16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell holding on Wed (6/1) at 2.0 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading Thurs (6/2) from 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 210-215 degrees
Secondary New Zealand Gale
A fetch of southwest winds developed Sun PM (5/22) south of New Zealand at 35-40 kts getting traction and generating seas of 26 ft at 57.5S 168E aimed east-northeast. On Mon AM 35-40 kt west-southwest winds were over a broad area aimed east-northeast under and southeast of New Zealand with seas to 29 ft at 57.75S 179.75W aimed east-northeast. In the evening southwest winds were fading from 30-35 kts over a tiny area southeast of New Zealand with seas 26 ft at 57S 170W aimed east-northeast. This is mainly just a preparatory gale for the next system developing behind (see above).
No clearly identifiable swell to result.
3rd New Zealand Gale
One more fetch of southwest winds developed Mon PM (5/23) south of New Zealand at 40-45 kts getting traction and generating seas of 29 ft at 59.5S 157E aimed east-northeast. On Tues AM 30-35 kt south-southwest winds were over a broad area aimed northeast under and southeast of New Zealand with seas 33 ft at 55S 165.75E aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds were 40-45 kts over a solid area area just southeast of New Zealand with seas 37 ft at 51.25S 175.25E aimed northeast. On Wed AM (5/25) southwest winds were fading from 35-40 kts over a solid area aimed northeast with seas 35 ft at 47.5S 174.25W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch was fading from 30-35 kts with seas 30 ft at 46.5S 171.25W aimed northeast. Residual fetch is to be fading on Thurs AM (5/26) from 30-35 kts with seas fading from 27 ft at 43S 164W aimed northeast. The gale to fade from there. More solid swell is forecast for Tahiti, Hawaii and the US West Coast given this storms good northward track and penetration well into the upper reaches of the South Pacific.
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Tues (5/31) building to 3.1 ft @ 17-18 secs later (5.5 ft). Swell solid on Wed (6/1) holding at 3.3 ft @ 15-16 secs (5.0 ft). Swell slowly dropping on Thurs (6/2) from 2.8 ft @ 15 secs (4.0 ft). Swell dropping on Fri (6/3) from 2.3 ft @ 13-14 secs (3.0 ft). Dribbles on Sat (6/4) fading from 1.7 ft @ 12-13 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 193 degrees
Southern CA: Swell arrival on Thurs (6/2) building to 1.6 ft @ 18-19 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell building on Fri (6/3) to 2.7 ft @ 17 secs (4.5 ft). Swell continues on Sat (6/4) at 2.8 ft @ 16 secs early (4.5 ft). Swell fading on Sun (6/5) from 2.4 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.5 ft). Residuals on Mon (6/6) fading from 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 208-213 degrees
North CA: Swell arrival on Thurs (6/2) building to 1.4 ft @ 19 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell building on Fri (6/3) to 2.9 ft @ 17-18 secs (5.0 ft). Swell continues on Sat (6/4) at 2.9 ft @ 16 secs early (4.5 ft). Swell fading on Sun (6/5) from 2.5 ft @ 15 secs (3.5-4.0 ft). Residuals on Mon (6/6) fading from 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 208-213 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
CFS Model Upgrades Again
La Nina to fade by mid-June - SOI Peaked Late April - New Kelvin Wave Stalled
Summary - Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21 and is now fading. The SOI is just past its peak, higher than last years peak. A delayed response. A much hoped for Active Phase of the MJO (and westerly anomalies) in April has resulted in a weak Kelvin Wave but it is stalled mid-way across the Pacific today. La Nina conditions are projected ending by the CFS in June but persisting per the IRI models until Nov. West anomalies are forecast filling half or more of the KWGA from here forward. The outlook is turning more optimistic with ENSO neutral trying to set up.
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).
Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Summer 2022 = 2.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen. A full double dip La Nina pattern took hold as we moved into November with this second La Nina dip being nearly as strong as the previous one. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern at that time and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter. But by later in Feb 2022 perhaps a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. But it will be too little too late. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct-Feb 2022, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by March 2022, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (5/25) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and modest east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (5/26) a mix of weak east and west anomalies were over the KWGA. The 7 day forecast calls for no change through 5/28 then east anomalies are to building on the dateline for 5/29-5/31, then dissipating while modest west anomalies try to build in the West KWGA to 150E over the same 3 days window. Beyond a neutral wind anomaly pattern to develop through the end of the model run on 6/2.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
- MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (5/25) A neutral MJO signal was indicated today over the KWGA. The statistical model indicates a weak Active pattern developing over the KWGA on days 5 and 10 of the model run, then turning solidly INactive on day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model projects the same thing but but with the Inactive Phase far weaker and barely in the KWGA on day 15.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (5/26) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over the Maritime Continent and is to push east moving to the East Atlantic and quite weak 15 days out. The dynamic model suggests the Active Phase racing east fast over the West Pacific at moderate strength on day 2-6 of the model run then moving over Africa 15 days out and weak.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (4/25) This model has not updated. A weak Inactive MJO signal (dry air) was over the East Pacific today. The forecast depicts the Inactive Phase (dry air) moving east while slowly fading moving into Central America on 4/30 while a weak Active Phase (wet air) is to follow over the KWGA on 4/30 moving east to Central America on 5/15. A weak Inactive Phase is to track east from 5/15-5/30 with a very weak pattern beyond through 6/4.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (5/25) A neutral MJO Phase was depicted over the KWGA today with a mix of weak east and west anomalies in control. East anomalies are to fade then redevelop weakly in the Central KWGA 5/28-6/2 before fading again. The Active Phase of the MJO is to develop weakly on the far West Pacific tracking over the KWGA 6/2-6/8 with weak west anomalies over the KWGA during that window. Beyond a weak Inactive Phase is to reach over the KWGA 6/11-6/20 with weak east anomalies forecast. Beyond a neutral wind and MJO pattern is forecast through then end of the model run on 6/22.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (5/26 - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today a very weak Inactive MJO signal was holding over the KWGA with a mix of weak east and west anomalies over the KWGA. The forecast depicts the weak Inactive signal holding over the KWGA through 6/2 (previously 5/19) with east anomalies dissipating about 5/27 and west anomalies developing a day or so beyond and holding for the foreseeable future. A weak Inactive MJO signal is to follow 6/8-7/7 but with west anomalies holding to the dateline. The Active Phase of the MJO is to develop on 7/2 pushing through the KWGA through the end of the model run on 8/23. West anomalies are to prevail over the KWGA to the dateline but perhaps backtracking to 165E starting 7/11 and holding there. The core of east anomalies are to move from the dateline to 150W on 6/9 and holding there beyond. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 2 contour lines was centered at 150W with its western perimeter at 170E today and forecast holding for the foreseeable future. The second contour is to fade on 6/11. A broad single contour low pressure bias is established centered over the Maritime Continent at 115E with it's leading edge at 150E filling half the KWGA and is forecast holding more or less steady for the foreseeable future if not easing slightly east. A second contour line is to appear on 7/31 (previously 6/20). Of note, the leading edge of the low pressure bias has been stalled at 150E since 1/31, started moving east on 3/25 but appears to have stalled again on 4/25 and is still stalled today and is expected to hold there. In effect no real change is forecast. The demise of La Nina all hinges on the eastward progress of the low pressure bias and or the arrival of west anomalies deep into the KWGA. That said, a slow decay of the east anomaly pattern over the KWGA and its movement to the East Pacific could possibly prepare the Pacific for the final move of the low pressure bias further east. But in a neutral pattern (neither La Nina or La Nina) the low pressure bias we believe is normally centered at 120E which it is forecast to be late in June.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (5/26) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was solidly present at 169E moving from 161E previously. The 28 deg isotherm line was easing east to 179E (previously 175E). The 26 degree isotherm backtracked from 120W to 135W to 141W on 5/3 and is easing east now back to 133W today. The 24 deg isotherm was steady across the East Pacific. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +3 deg C were in a pocket in the far West Pacific down 150m with it's leading edge easing east to 135W with a thin stream connecting it to the East Pacific. A previous pool of -1C cool anomalies below the warm pool at 100W are now gone. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 5/18 indicates the same pocket of cool anomalies between 130W-80W with the core at 95W at -3 degs C and is shifting east and weakening (discharging to the surface). A new Kelvin Wave is starting to push east from the West Pacific, stalled about late April, but now is moving east to 130W. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (5/18) Sea heights were steady over the Equatorial Pacific. A string of positive anomaly pockets were north of the equator pushing from the dateline to 100W along the 3N latitude line and building some with pockets at +5 cms with one to +10 cms and almost continuous. A broad but shrinking area of negative anomalies at -5 cms were over the equator from Ecuador to 135W with -10 cms just east of the Galapagos. Otherwise positive anomalies were mostly locked from the dateline and points west of there. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram a pocket of cool anomalies was fading from -1.0 degs between Ecuador and 115W and shrinking. And a new Kelvin Wave was stalled at 155W. So it looks like the most recent cool bout was just the upwelling phase of the Kelvin Wave cycle and a new downwelling Kelvin Wave is developing while trying to push east, but weak and possibly stalled.
Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (5/25) The latest images depict a broad generic pool of cool water extending west from Chile, Peru and Ecuador to the dateline and filling well south of the equator. A few pockets of warm water were on the equator from Ecuador to 130W perhaps builds some. A pocket of previously stronger cold water was all but fully discharged along the coast of Peru reaching west to the Galapagos and losing density and coverage fast. A weak area of warm water was present north of the equator (1 deg N) across the entire North Pacific. Overall this indicates the late stages of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (5/25): A thin stream of mixed warming an cooling waters were present from Ecuador west over the Galapagos out to 120W. Previous warming has faded.
Hi-res Overview: (5/25) Persistent cool waters cover a large area from Ecuador to 160E on the equator and from South America down at 20S. Warmer than normal waters were aligned from 1N and above over the entire North Pacific. La Nina remains in control over the East Equatorial Pacific but the density and intensity of the cooling appears to be waning.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (5/26) Today's temps are at 1.643 and fading some from -1.506 (5/21) but rising since 5/13 where temps had been hovering at -2.057 peaking on 4/23 and have been near there since 4/19. Prior to that they were fading after peaking at +0.760 on 3/18. Temps had been moving upwards since 2/20, and beat a previous high of -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3 and -1.954 on 12/18, the lowest this year so far. Previously temps dropped on 11/24 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. Last year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (5/24) Today's temps were falling some at -0.806 after rising to -0.749 on 5/24. They were down to -0.929 (5/2) and that after rising to a peak at -0.704 on 3/27 and had been on a gentle rising trend since falling to -1.012 on 3/8. Previously temps were rising slightly to -0.505 on 2/2 and that after reaching a peak low of -1.096 on 1/3 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May.
Forecast (5/26) - Temps are to steadily rise moving forward to about -0.25 degs in July falling to -0.50 into Nov, then rising above the La Nina threshold in Dec and up to -0.0 degs in Feb. This is yet another slight upgrade. This model suggests we are at going to slowly transition towards ENSO neutral in the coming Winter. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps rising to -0.5 degs in June and to -0.15 degs in July then slowly falling to -0.45 degs Oct-Nov, then rising to -0.05 degs in Feb. According to this version of the model we will be moving out of La Nina in June. This is beating the forecast from the IRI forecast (see IRI Consensus forecast below).
IRI Consensus Plume: The May 19, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.762 degs today and have bottomed out. They are to warm to -0.594 in July (previously -0.287 and -0.449 degs the 2 previous updates) then falling slightly to -0.708 in November before rising to -0.275 degs in Jan. This model now suggest a continuation of borderline minimal La Nina temps through Nov. then transitioning to ENSO neutral. This model is now in line with the CFS model.
See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator):
Today (5/26) the daily index was positive at +11.36 degs with previous peaks at +33.57 (5/24), +40.77 (5/10), +31.44 (4/27), +31.80 (4/6), +27.33 (1/31) and +46.71 (12/26). The trend of late has been solidly positive. Previous other notable peaks were +30.98 (11/26), +36.90 (9/28), +27.75 ( 9/13) and +37.86 (7/15).
The 30 day average was falling some at +18.89 today after rising to +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was rising some at +16.72 today the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131
Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ
Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.
Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table