Tuesday, May 10, 2022
- Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor)/Buoy 239 (Lanai) NA/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt) NA: Seas were 3.4 ft @ 6.1 secs with swell 2.6 ft @ 6.0 secs from 141 degrees. Water temp 77.7 degs (Barbers Pt), NA (Lani 239), 77.5 (Pearl Harbor 233).
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 4.8 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 3.4 ft @ 7.9 secs from 43 degrees. Water temp 76.6 degs.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 5.3 ft @ 6.2 secs with swell 2.5 ft @ 10.4 secs from 275 degrees. Wind northeast at 12-16 kts. Water temperature 60.8 degs, 58.1 (Topanga 103), 62.1 degs (Long Beach 215), 64.2 (Del Mar 153), 62.4 (Imperial Beach 155). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 5.4 ft @ 11.5 secs from 306 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.3 ft @ 10.5 secs from 268 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 3.7 ft @ 9.0 secs from 268 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 4.8 ft @ 8.4 secs from 281 degrees. Water temp 60.6 degs.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 5.9 ft @ 10.5 secs with swell 4.6 ft @ 10.3 secs from 300 degrees. Wind at buoy 46012 was northwest at 12-16 kts. Water temp 50.2 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 49.1 (46026), 52.7 (SF Bar 142), and NA (Santa Cruz 254).
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Tuesday (5/10) North and Central CA had set waves at waist high and mushed and nearly chopped early. Protected breaks were waist high or so and soft and mushed with some modest northwest wind bump intermixed but comparatively cleaner. At Santa Cruz surf was waist high and somewhat lined up with decent form but very soft with intermixed moderate texture. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh to maybe waist high and weak and soft and mushed with alot of warble intermixed though surface conditions were glassy. Central Orange County had sets to chest high and lined up with decent form but soft with some texture coming from the south. South Orange County's best summertime breaks were thigh to waist high and soft and trying to line up but being broken up by alot of warble though wind was calm and surface conditions clean. North San Diego had sets at waist high and lined up and clean but a little closed out. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was waist high with some occasionally lined up with decent form and clean but mostly soft. The East Shore was getting east windswell at chest high and chopped from strong east trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Tuesday (5/10) California was getting some locally generated northwest windswell at exposed breaks mixed with faint remnants of swell from and gale previously southeast of New Zealand. Hawaii was getting nothing of interest other than east windswell.
Beyond the North Pacific is asleep for the Summer with the focus all in the South Pacific now. A gale formed Sun-Mon (5/9) in the Southeast Pacific producing 29-30 ft seas aimed northeast. And another formed in the Central South Pacific on Tues (5/10) with 37 ft seas aimed well northeast and is to push east into Thurs (5/12) with 36 ft seas aimed east to northeast. Perhaps another gale is to form on Fri-Sat (5/14) with 30 ft seas aimed northeast, but that seems a bit optimistic. Regardless, a bit of smaller southern hemi swell is already in the water heading northeast.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
No meaningful jetstream activity is forecast. The focus is now the Southern Hemisphere.
On Tuesday (5/10) minimal swell from a low pressure system previously over the dateline swell was radiating towards Hawaii (see Dateline Low Pressure below).
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.
Dateline Low Pressure System
A weak gale developed over the dateline on Sat PM (5/7) producing 25 kt north winds and seas trying to develop. On Sun AM (5/8) no change occurred. In the evening the gale started developing with 30 kt north winds with seas building to 15 ft at 45N 173W aimed southwest and not at Hawaii. On Mon AM (5/9) north winds were 30 kts over the dateline aimed south with seas 18 ft at 45N 178W aimed south. In the evening fetch fell south with 30 kt northwest winds aimed well at Hawaii with 16 ft seas at 39N 1178E. The low and associated fetch faded Tues AM (5/10) no longer generating seas of interest.
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Fri (5/13) at 1.8 ft @ 10-11 secs (1.5 ft). Dribbles fading Sat (5/14) from 1.5 ft @ 9 secs (1.0 ft). Swell Direction: 317 degrees
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored.
California Nearshore Forecast
- Wed (5/11) northwest winds are forecast at 20 kts for North CA and Central CA early pretty much holding in the afternoon. A backdoor front and light snow is possible for the Sierra during the day
- Thurs (5/12) northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts for North CA down to Monterey Bay and 20 kts for Central CA south of there early. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts for North CA and 20-25 kts for Central CA. Light rain for North Cape Mendocino in the afternoon.
- Friday (5/13) northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 10-15 kts for North CA and 20+ kts for Central CA. Light rain for Cape Mendocino through the day.
- Sat (5/14) northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts for North CA and 15 kts south of Pt Arena and 15 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon light west winds are forecast at 5-10 kts for the northern portion of North CA and 15 kts from the northwest from Pt Arena southward to Pt Conception. No precip forecast.
- Sun (5/15) northwest winds are to be 5-10 kts for North CA early and northwest 10-15 ks for Central CA focused on Pt Conception. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 10-15 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA.
- Mon (5/16) northwest winds are forecast at 15-20 kts for North CA early and 15-20 kts for Central CA strongest south of Monterey Bay. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 20-25 kts for all of North and Central CA.
- Tues (5/17) the wind machine fires up again with northwest winds 20-25 kts for all of North and Central CA holding all day.
Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 3, 4, 5, and 0.5 inches on Tues-Wed (5/11).
Freezing level 3,500 ft today rising fast and hard starting 5/11 to 6,800 ft then building to 12,000 ft on 5/13 and holding beyond if not rising more on 5/19.
Water Assessment: It's assumed no more precipitation will fall this rain season. A total of 86 inches of snow has fallen at Olympic Valley between 4/11 and 4/22. Impressive. Effectively all of California's frozen precip has fallen between 3 events - on Oct 18-26 (42 inches), Dec 9-Jan 5 (215 inches), and then this April Event (86 inches). Total accumulation is 394 inches at 8,000 ft. Normal total seasonal accumulation is 400 inches (Olympic Valley). Rainfall is at about 87% in that same corridor (San Francisco-Sacramento and Tahoe). But north and south of there it's in about the 70% range (total season accumulation). All this speaks to the power of the jetstream moving onshore and it's laser like focus on the SF-SAC-Tahoe area. Without those 3 events, California would be in very deep trouble.
Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level (more here - scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!
On Tues (5/10) the influential southern branch of the jet jet was tracking east on the 58S latitude line lifting north some forming a trough over the Central South Pacific being fed by 120 kts winds offering some support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours that trough is to push east and be east of the Southern CA swell window on Thurs (5/12) no longer supporting gale formation. But additional wind energy is to be pushing east from under New Zealand at 140 kts forming a weak gentle trough over the Central South Pacific on Wed (5/11) pushing east into Fri (5/13) then fading out. Beyond 72 hours wind energy is to start lifting hard northeast under New Zealand late on Fri (5/13) at 130 kts building to 140 kts on Sat (5/14) producing a solid trough well east of New Zealand offering good support for gale development pushing east then fading on Sun (5/15). Something to monitor. Beyond a weak jetstream pattern is forecast offering no support for gale development.
Swell from a two part gale that developed under New Zealand is all but gone in California (see Stronger New Zealand Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours starting Mon PM (5/9) a small storm is to develop southeast of New Zealand with 50-55 kt south winds and seas 30 ft at 61S 170W aimed northeast. On Tues AM (5/10) the gale had 45+ kt southwest winds lifting northeast with seas 37 ft at 55.75S 162W aimed northeast. In the evening the gale is to be pushing northeast with 40-45 kt southwest winds and seas 33 ft at 52.5S 151.25W aimed northeast. The gale is to push east Wed AM (5/11) over the Southeast Pacific with 45-50 kt west-southwest winds and seas 38 ft over a tiny area at 55S 140.75W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch fetch is to be pushing east at 40 kts with seas 32 ft at 53.5S 129.25W aimed east and on the east edge of the SCal swell window. Secondary fetch is to push over the same area on Thurs AM (5/12) from the west at 45 kts with seas 34 ft at 51.5S 144.25W aimed east. In the evening 50 kts west-southwest winds are to push to the edge of the SCal swell window with seas 37 ft at 51.5S 126.25W aimed east. This system is to be east of the SCal swell window beyond. Something to monitor.
Stronger New Zealand Gale
A reasonably solid and broad storm started building under New Zealand on Sun PM (4/24) with 40-45 kt southwest winds over a solid area aimed northeast with seas 29 ft at 53.75S 166E aimed northeast. On Mon AM (4/25) 40-45 kt southwest winds were tracking east with 32 ft seas at 55.25S 170E aimed northeast. In the evening the gale was redeveloping a bit further south with a solid fetch of 45 kts southwest winds and seas 33 ft at 52S 175.75W aimed northeast. On Tues AM (4/26) a solid fetch of south winds were blowing at 50-55 kts with seas 37 ft at 58.25S 173.5W aimed north and northeast. In the evening fetch was fading from 40-45 kts from the southwest with seas 37 ft at 55S 170.75W aimed northeast. On Wed AM fetch was fading from 30-35 kts with seas fading from 31 ft at 51S 165.25W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.
On Wed AM (4/27) secondary fetch was developing just southwest of the main fetch and south of New Zealand at 45-50 kts aimed northeast with seas building from 27 ft at 62.5S 175E aimed northeast. In the evening 45-50 kt southwest winds were lifting northeast with seas 36 ft over a small area at 58.5S 176.25W aimed northeast. On Thurs AM (4/28) fetch was 40 kts over a broad area aimed northeast over the Central South Pacific with seas 32 ft at 54.25S 165.75W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch was fading from 35-40 kts aimed northeast over a broad area with seas fading from 32 ft at 53.25S 156.5W aimed northeast. Fetch fading Fri AM (4/29) from 30-35 kts over a broad area with seas 27 ft at 49.25S 145W aimed northeast. The gale is to fade from there.
Southern CA: Dribbles on Tues (5/10) fading from 1.6 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). 210 degrees moving to 201 degrees
North CA: Dribbles on Tues (5/10) fading from 1.6 ft @ 14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). 210 degrees moving to 201 degrees
Weak Southeast Pacific Gale
A gale developed in the deep Southeast Pacific on Sun AM (5/7) with 30-35 kt southwest winds over a broad area and seas 25 ft building at 59S 152W. In the evening southwest winds were building to 35-40 kts with seas 29 ft at 55.75S 138.75W aimed east-northeast. Mon AM (5/10) southwest winds were 35-45 kts over the far Southeast Pacific with seas 30 ft at 55.5S 122W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds to be fading from 30-35 kts with seas 28 ft at 56S 121W aimed northeast and on the edge of the SCal swell window. This system faded and was east of the CA swell window beyond.
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (5/15) building to 1.4 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell continues on Mon (5/16) at 2.0 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Tues (5/17) from 1.8 ft @ 14 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 190 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (5/15) building to 1.4 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell continues on Mon (5/16) at 1.9 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Tues (5/17) from 1.6 ft @ 14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 190 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.
Beyond 72 hours perhaps another gale is to form southeast of the New Zealand on Fri PM (5/13) producing southwest winds at 45 kts with seas 30 ft over a tiny area at at 53S 180W aimed northeast. On Sat AM 95/14) south winds to be 40-45 kts with seas 29 ft at 50S 170W aimed northeast over a modest sized area. Fetch is to be fading from 35-40 kts in the evening with seas 26 ft at 50S 160W. Perhaps a secondary pulse of winds to develop Sun AM (5/15) at 45 kts from the south with seas 27 ft at 52S 150W aimed east. In the evening a fetch of 45 kts south winds are forecast with seas 33 ft at 52.5S 140W aimed east Beyond fetch is to fall south offering nothing. Something to monitor.
CFS Model Upgrades
Weak La Nina through Fall then Fading - SOI Peaked Late April - New Kelvin Wave Stalled
Summary - Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21 and is now fading. But the SOI is peaking just now, higher than last years peak. A delayed response. A much hoped for Active Phase of the MJO (and westerly anomalies) in April has resulted in a weak Kelvin Wave but it is stalled mid-way across the Pacific today. It seemed the peak of La Nina was behind us. But La Nina conditions are projected by the CFS model until Nov, then fading, suggesting an uncertain future. West anomalies are forecast filling half the KWGA from here forward. The outlook is unclear but seems like ENSO neutral is trying to set up.
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).
Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall /Winter 2021-2022 = 1.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen. A full double dip La Nina pattern took hold as we moved into November with this second La Nina dip being nearly as strong as the previous one. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern at that time and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter. But by later in Feb 2022 perhaps a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. But it will be too little too late. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct-Feb 2022, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by March 2022, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (5/9) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and light to modest east over the Central Pacific and modest east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (5/10) east anomalies were strong filling the KWGA, The 7 day forecast calls for east anomalies holding at strong status through 5/12 then fading and turning to west anomalies filling the KWGA on 5/14 holding through the last day of the model run on 5/17.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
- MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (5/9) A weak Inactive MJO signal was indicated today barely present over the KWGA. The statistical model indicates a building Active MJO signal setting up 5 days out and building on day 10 and filling the KWGA through day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model projects the same thing but the Active MJO fading on day 10 and turning neutral on day 15 of the model run.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (5/10) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over the East Indian Ocean and is to push fast east moving to the West Pacific at weak strength 15 days out. The dynamic model suggests the Active Phase racing east to Africa at very weak status 15 days out.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (4/25) This model has not updated. A weak Inactive MJO signal (dry air) was over the East Pacific today. The forecast depicts the Inactive Phase (dry air) moving east while slowly fading moving into Central America on 4/30 while a weak Active Phase (wet air) is to follow over the KWGA on 4/30 moving east to Central America on 5/15. A weak Inactive Phase is to track east from 5/15-5/30 with a very weak pattern beyond through 6/4.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (5/9) A weak Inactive MJO Phase was depicted developing over the KWGA today with moderate east anomalies building over the KWGA at moderate strength. The Inactive MJO is to push east through 5/19 with east anomalies strong over the KWGA through 5/13, then fading to weak status to 5/15-5/20 then rebuilding to moderate status on 5/21-5/26 then fading to weak status and holding centered over the dateline at the end of the model run on 6/6. The Active Phase is building today over the Maritime Continent moving east and pushing into the KWGA on 5/23 dragging west anomalies with it filling the western KWGA into 5/30, the fading some at the end of the model run.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (5/10 - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today a very weak Inactive MJO signal was over the KWGA with modest east anomalies focused mainly on the dateline. The forecast depicts the weak Inactive signal holding through 5/15 with a pocket of east anomalies over the dateline holding, then dissipating on 5/16. After that weak west anomalies to take over the entirety of the KWGA 5/16 and beyond filling 100% of the KWGA and holding for the foreseeable future. East anomalies are to become focused at 130W starting 5/23 occasionally poking west to the dateline but of no real consequence. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 2 contour lines was centered at 150W with its western perimeter at 170E today and forecast holding for the foreseeable future. The second contour is to hold now. A broad single contour low pressure bias is established centered over the Maritime Continent at 110E with it's leading edge at 150E filling half the KWGA and is forecast holding steady for the foreseeable future. A second contour line is to appear on 7/13 (previously 6/20). Of note, the leading edge of the low pressure bias has been stalled at 150E since 1/31, started moving east on 3/25 but appears to have stalled again on 4/25 and is still stalled today and is expected to hold there until 6/6 then moving east incredibly slow. In effect no real change is forecast. All this suggest the continuation of La Nina. This model has been constantly slipping later the velocity of the arrival of the low pressure bias deeper into the KWGA. So it is not to be believed. And the demise of La Nina all hinges on the eastward progress of the low pressure bias.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (5/9) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was present at 162E. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 175E. The 26 degree isotherm backtracked from 120W to 135W to 141W on 5/3 and is easing east now back to 133W today. The 24 deg isotherm was steady across the East Pacific. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +3 deg C were in a pocket in the far West Pacific down 150m with it's leading edge easing east to 150W with a thin stream connecting it to the East Pacific. A shrinking area of -1C cool anomalies were below the warm pool at 100W and all but gone. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 5/3 indicates the same pocket of cool anomalies between 138W-80W at -3 degs C and appears to be now be shifting east and weakening. A new Kelvin Wave is starting to push east from the West Pacific but now stalled at 150W. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (5/3) Sea heights were steady over the Equatorial Pacific. A string of weakly positive anomaly pockets were north of the equator pushing from the dateline to 100W along the 5N latitude line and weaker than days previous limited to pockets at +5 cms with one to +10 cms. A broad area of negative anomalies at -5 cms were over the equator from Ecuador to 150W. And those negative anomalies were fading in intensity into Ecuador with the core at -10 cms and at -15cms over the Galapagos. Otherwise positive anomalies were mostly locked from the dateline and points west of there. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram a previous Kelvin Wave dissipated on 4/1. A pocket of cool anomalies was fading from -1.0 degs between Ecuador and 138W. And a new Kelvin Wave is trying to push east from 152W but lost ground today positioned at 154W. So it looks like the most recent cool bout was just the upwelling phase of the Kelvin Wave cycle and a new downwelling Kelvin Wave is developing while pushing east, but weak and possibly stalled.
Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (5/9) The latest images depict a broad generic pool of cool water extending west from Ecuador to the dateline extending well south of the equator. Only a few lingering pockets of warm water remained on the equator from Ecuador to 130W. A broad pocket of strong cold water was along the coast of Peru reaching to the Galapagos on the equator indicative of strong upwelling there, but losing ground compared to days past. A weak area of warm water was present north of the equator (1 deg N) across the entire North Pacific. Overall this indicates the late stages of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (5/9): A few pockets of weak cooling were present between Ecuador and 115W. A few small pockets of warming were west of there.
Hi-res Overview: (5/9) Persistent cool waters cover a large area from Ecuador to 160E on the equator and from South America down at 20S. Warmer than normal waters were aligned from 1N and above over the entire North Pacific. La Nina remains in control over the East Equatorial Pacific.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (5/10) Today's temps were rising slightly at -1.780 degrees after falling to -2.057 on 4/23 and had been near there since 4/19. Prior to that they were fading after peaking at +0.760 on 3/18. Temps had been moving upwards since 2/20, and beat a previous high of -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3 and -1.954 on 12/18, the lowest this year so far. Previously temps dropped on 11/24 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. Last year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (5/10) Today's temps were falling at -0.993 after falling to -0.963 on 5/3 and that after rising to a peak at -0.704 on 3/27 and had been on a gentle rising trend since falling to -1.012 on 3/8. Previously temp were rising slightly to -0.505 on 2/2 and that after reaching a peak low of -1.096 on 1/3 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading some after that.
Forecast (5/10) - Temps are to fall to -1.05 degs in May and then are to slowly rise to about -0.60 degs in July falling to -0.75 into Nov, then rising to the La Nina threshold in Dec at -0.5 degrees in Jan. This model suggests we are at going to slowly transition towards ENSO neutral in the coming Winter. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps holding at -1.00 degs in May then rising to -0.45 degs in July then slowly falling to -0.75 degs in Nov, then rising beyond. This is starting to come in line with the IRI forecast (see IRI Consensus forecast below).
IRI Consensus Plume: The April 18, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.705 degs today and have bottomed out. They are to warm to -0.601 degs in May (previously -0.315 degrees last month), then rising to -0.449 in July (previously -0.287 degs) and hovering there through November then rising to -0.351 degs (previously 0.0 degs) after that. This model now suggest a continuation of weak La Nina conditions through the Fall.
See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator):
Today (5/10) the daily index was positive at +40.77 a new one day peak after peaking at +31.44 on 4/27, +31.80 on 4/6, +27.33 on 1/31/22 and +46.71 on 12/26. The trend of late has been solidly positive. Previous other notable peaks were +30.98 on 11/26, +36.90 on 9/28, +27.75 on 9/13 and +37.86 on 7/15.
The 30 day average was rising to +19.50 after rising to +20.07 on 5/2 the highest in a year beating last years high of +19.51 on 1/14.
The 90 day average was rising some at +13.58 today after peaking at +13.69 on 3/28 rising from +7.10 on 11/1. It previously peaking on 9/21 at +9.80 after falling to it's lowest point in a year on 6/9 at +1.06. The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 on 2/23/21 (clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131
Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ
Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.
Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table