Saturday, April 27, 2019
- Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/ Buoy 239 (Lanai) seas were 2.9 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 1.8 ft @ 13.5 secs from 168 degrees.
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 3.8 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 3.2 ft @ 9.4 secs from 19 degrees.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 1.8 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 1.4 ft @ 13.8 secs from 182 degrees. Wind at the buoy was south at 2-4 kts. Water temperature 59.9 degs. At Ventura (Buoy 111) swell was 0.8 ft @ 12.8 secs from 183 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.3 ft @ 15.3 secs from 214 degrees. At Camp Pendleton (043) swell was 1.4 ft @ 13.8 secs from 220 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.6 ft @ 13.6 secs from 213 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 7.9 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 5.4 ft @ 9.9 secs from 322 degrees. Wind at the buoy (013) was southeast at 4-6 kts. Water temp 54.3 degs (042) and 49.5 (013).
See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Saturday (4/27) in North and Central CA local north windswell was producing waves at waist high and totally trashed by brisk south winds with whitecaps in effect. Protected breaks were waist to maybe chest high and soft but much cleaner. At Santa Cruz surf was knee high and clean and not really rideable. In Southern California/Ventura surf was knee high and clean. In North Orange Co surf was waist high on the sets and clean and soft. South Orange Country's best summertime breaks were waist high or so on the peak and clean coming from the south but inconsistent and weak. North San Diego had surf at knee high on the sets and clean and soft. Hawaii's North Shore was getting local north windswell with waves chest high and clean and lined up at most focused breaks. The South Shore was thigh high on the sets and clean and soft. The East Shore was getting east windswell with waves waist high and textured with light southeast trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Saturday (4/27) in California small local northerly windswell was producing barely rideable surf at exposed breaks. Local easterly windswell was hitting Hawaii and cleaner. A small cut off low produced 22-23 ft seas northwest of Hawaii on Fri (4/26) with windswell pushing south towards the Islands. Another gale is to develop approaching the Northern Dateline region on Sun-Mon (4/30) producing 28 ft seas aimed east. And possibly another gale to track east towards the dateline Fri-Sat (5/4) producing 33 ft seas falling east-southeast. In the Southern Hemisphere a weak gale formed in the Central Pacific Fri-Mon (4/22) producing seas to barely 30 ft seas lifting northeast. On Wed-Thurs (5/2) a stronger gale is to develop south of New Zealand with seas to 38 ft lifting gently east-northeast with secondary fetch producing 32 ft seas pushing east across the South Pacific through Sat (5/4).
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Saturday (4/27) the jetstream was consolidated over Japan forming a trough there then lifting northeast pushing to the Western Aleutians then falling into another steep trough over the Western Gulf but week with only 70 kts winds feeding it offering nothing in terms of support for gale development, then pushing east into Washington. Over the next 72 hours remnants of the Gulf trough to slowly fade into Monday (4/29) stalled in the Western Gulf offering nothing. The trough previously over Japan is to move northeast approaching the Northern Dateline late Monday (4/29) offering some support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours that trough is to redevelop on the dateline Wed-Thurs (5/2) being fed by 120-130 kt winds again offering support for gale development. And on Fri-Sat (5/4) yet another trough is to start building on the dateline being fed by 160 kt winds offering support for gale development there and with the jet consolidated over the width of the North Pacific. Maybe a bit of an upsurgence to develop for the North Pacific long term.
On Saturday (4/27) small swell from a gale that developed northwest of Hawaii was pushing southeast towards the Islands (see Hawaiian Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours a small gale is forecast developing mid-way between the Kuril's and the dateline on Sun AM (4/28) with 40 kt west winds and seas building from 27 ft at 41N 162.5E aimed east. In the evening 35 kt west winds are to be lifting northeast with 28 ft seas at 42.5N 168.5E aimed east. On Mon AM (4/29) the gale is to hold together with 35 kt west winds still lifting northeast with seas 25 ft at 45.5N 174E aimed east. In the evening the gale is to move to the North Dateline region and fade with barely 30 kt west winds and seas fading from 22 ft just south of the Central Aleutians at 48.5N 179E aimed east. Nothing else to follow. Maybe some small swell is to be pushing east.
On Thursday AM (4/25) a low pressure system was starting to build just east of the dateline producing a tiny area of 25-30 kt south winds targeting the Aleutians. In the evening fetch is to wrap into the gales northwest quadrant building to 35 kts over a small area starting to fall south with 18-20 ft seas over tiny area at 45N 177W falling south targeting the West Pacific. Fetch is fall south on Fri AM (4/26) at 30 kts with 22 ft seas at 40N 17W targeting Hawaii well. This system to dissipate in the evening with 25-30 kt north winds and seas fading from 18 ft at 37.5N 172W targeting Hawaii. Low odds of small 12 sec period swell resulting for Hawaii.
Oahu: Expect swell late on Sun (4/28) with swell building to 3.9 ft @ 14 secs (5.0-5.5. ft). Swell to continue decently Mon AM (4/29) but fading from 4.5 ft @ 12 secs (5.0-5.5 ft). Residuals fading Tues AM (4/30) fading from 3.3 ft @ 10 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 325 degrees
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical weather systems of interest are forecast.
California Nearshore Forecast
On Sat (4/27) north winds were build from 30 kts over Cape Mendocino to 35 kts later with windswell building some while south winds hold at 10 kts down over all of Central CA in the typical summer time eddy flow fashion. Sun (4/28) north winds to be 30-35 kts over most of North CA waters with windswell building and a summer time eddy flow of south winds continuing at 10 kts for Central CA nearshore waters. By Mon (4/29) high pressure is to hold at 1032 mbs in the Gulf with north winds 25-30 kts early for North CA and south winds 5-10 kts for Central CA and up into just south of Pt Arena holding through the day. Windswell fading some. Light rain over the Central sierra in the evening with snow over higher elevations. Tues (4/30) north winds to be 25 kts early over all of North CA still producing windswell with south winds 5 kts for all of Central CA. Wednesday (5/1) the gradient is to collapse with north winds fading from 15 kts over North CA and dropping from there with north winds over Central CA at 5-10 kts with windswell gone. Low pressure is to be circulating 600 nmiles west of Central CA cutting the legs out of high pressure to the north. Thursday (5/2) the low is to approaching Central CA with a light west flow 5 kts along the entire North and Central Coast. Friday (5/3) the low is to be just off Central CA moving east with south winds 5 kts early for all of North and Central CA. Rain developing late afternoon for all of Central CA with light snow for the Sierra overnight. Saturday (5/4) weak high pressure is to build offshore as the low moves inland with north winds 15-20 kts for North CA and 15 kts over outer waters for Central CA and south 5 kts nearshore. Maybe some windswell starting to build later.
2-4 inches of snow for Tahoe on Fri-Sat (5/4) and 1 inch for Mammoth.
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts).
A weak gale traversed the Central South Pacific pushing swell to the northeast (see Central South Pacific Gale below).
Otherwise no swell producing weather systems of interest were occurring.
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.
Central South Pacific Gale
A gale started developing southeast of New Zealand Thurs PM (4/18) with 30-35 kt southwest winds building and lifting northeast with seas building to 24 ft at 61S 170W. On Fri AM (4/19) fetch was lifting hard northeast with a broader fetch of 35 kt southwest winds and seas 24 ft at 55N 158W aimed northeast. 35 kt southwest fetch continued in the evening with 23 ft seas at 52S 149W aimed northeast. So far no real swell was being produced that could survive the journey to the North Pacific.
But on Sat AM (4/20) winds were 30-35 kts over a broad area with seas 26 ft over a tiny area at 53S 149W aimed east-northeast. In the evening 40 kt mostly westerly fetch was tracking east with seas 27 ft at 54.5S 156W aimed east-northeast. On Sun AM (4/21) fetch was fading from 30-35 kts over a moderate sized area aimed east with 27 ft seas at 51S 152W aimed east-northeast. In the evening fetch and seas faded.
But on Sun PM (4/21) ar new fetch of 40 kt southwest winds were building southeast of New Zealand with seas building from 25 ft at 56S 168W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (4/22) 40 kt west winds were lifting northeast with seas building to 30 ft at 52S 149W aimed east-northeast. The gale was tracking fast east to southeast with winds 45 kts aimed east with seas 28 ft over a tiny area falling southeast at 54S 131W. The gale to continue falling southeast from there and no longer of any interest. Something to monitor. But to manage expectations, minimal swell is likely to radiate northeast mainly for California.
Hawaii: Swell holding Sat AM (4/27) 1.3 ft @ 14-15 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell fading Sun (4/28) from 1.3 ft @ 13 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). A second small pulse of swell to hit on Mon (4/29) building to 1.1 ft @ 16-17 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell peaking on Tues (4/30) at (1.3 ft @ 14-15 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell dissipating from there. Swell Direction: 185 degrees
Southern CA: On Sat AM (4/27) swell building to 1.5 ft @ 15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft) then holding through the day. Swell fading Sun (4/28) from 1.6 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Secondary swell to arrive also on Sunday building to 2.0 ft @ 16 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell continues on Mon (4/29) at 2.3 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Additional swell arriving on Mon with period 17 secs building underneath. Swell solid on Tues (4/30) to 2.5 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell holding on Wed (5/1) at 2.8 ft @ 15-16 secs (4.0-4.5 ft with sets to 5.5 ft). Swell fading some on Thurs (5/2) from 2.5 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.5 ft). Swell Direction 200 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat AM (4/27) swell building to 1.2 ft @ 15 secs (1.5-2.0 ft) and holding through the day. Swell fading Sun (4/28) from 1.3 ft @ 14 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Secondary swell to arrive also on Sunday building to 1.4 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell continues on Mon (4/29) at 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Additional swell arriving on Mon with period 17 secs building underneath. Swell solid on Tues (4/30) to 1.9 ft @ 16 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell holding on Wed (5/1) at 1.8 ft @ 16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft with sets to 3.5 ft). Swell fading some on Thurs (5/2) from 2.2 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction 198 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours another small gale is to start developing mid-way to the dateline on Thurs PM (5/2) with 45 kt west winds over a small area and seas building from 21 ft at 42.5N 165.6E aimed east. On Fri AM (5/3) the gale is to fall southeast some with 45 kt west winds and seas building to 33 ft at 42N 170.5E. In the evening the gale is to be fading with 35 kt northwest winds falling southeast with seas 27 ft at 40N 176.5E aimed east. The gale is to fade Sat AM (5/4) with 30-35 kt northwest winds and seas fading from 21 ft at 37.5N 178W targeting Hawaii decently. Something to monitor.
Beyond 72 hours the models suggest a gale developing just south of New Zealand on Wed PM (5/1) with 45 kt west-southwest winds building and seas developing to 33 ft at 57S 174.5E aimed northeast. On Thurs AM (5/2) 45 kt west winds to be pushing east-northeast with seas building to 38 ft at 54S 166W aimed east. In the evening fetch is to fade to 40-45 kts from the west in dispersed pockets moving to the Central South Pacific with 32 ft seas over a broad area aimed east-northeast at 55S 152W aimed east with more 30 ft seas west of there. On Fri AM (5/3) a more consolidated fetch of 40 kt southwest winds are to build with seas 36 ft over a small area aimed northeast at 51.5S 151W. In the evening fetch is to fade from 40 kts in pockets with seas 30 ft at 47S 140W aimed northeast. Fetch fading Sat Am (5/4) from 40 kts in one small pocket with seas 32 ft at 50S 134W aimed east northeast. Something to monitor.
Kelvin Wave #3 Poised Just Below Surface in EPac
The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).
Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration but then in July east anomalies started building in the KWGA and did not stop, with cold water upwelling over the the Nino1.2 and 3.4 areas, indicative of La Nina. A double dip La Nina was in control and continued through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. As of January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then started building some late in Feb associated with another Kelvin Wave (#3).
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Summer 2019 = 5.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: Assuming the PDO has moved to the warm phase and that weak borderline El Nino condition continue , and assuming a weak ocean-atmospheric coupling holds and ocean temperature anomalies in Nino3.4 hold in the +0.8 deg range, there is good probability for slightly enhanced storm production in the South Pacific during the Northern Hemisphere Summer time months. There is slightly increased intensity in number of storm days and storm intensity, resulting in slightly increased odds for larger than normal swell, with increased duration and higher than normal period. This should be significantly better than the past 2 Summer seasons.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (4/26) 5 day average winds were from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific to the dateline, then continuing east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the entire Pacific turning moderate east over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (4/27) solid east anomalies were controlling the KWGA and the whole of the equatorial Pacific. The forecast is for solid east anomalies holding while easing east and almost out of the KWGA moving over the entirety of the equatorial Central and Eastern Pacific through the end of the model run on 5/4. West anomalies are to build in the far west KWGA almost filling the KWGA at the end of the model run. There is to continue to be a marked decrease in support for storm development into about 5/2, then storm production potential is to start building.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:
OLR Models: (4/26) A moderate Inactive MJO pattern was over the KWGA. The statistic model indicates a moderate Inactive MJO signal is to start fading some at day 5 of the model run then quickly disintegrating with the Active Phase building into the West Pacific at day 10 and filling the West Pacific at day 15. The dynamic model indicates almost the exact same thing. The 2 models are in sync.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (4/27) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO was moderate in the East Indian Ocean, and forecast to push east over the Maritime Continent and into the West Pacific through day 15. The GEFS model suggests the Active Phase moderate in strength and pushing east, while fading to weak status in the Western Pacific at day 15.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model): (4/27) This model depicts a solid Active Phase pushing into the West Pacific today tracking east into Central America on 5/22. A modest Inactive Phase is to develop in the West Pacific on 5/17 pushing east into Central America at the end of the model run on 6/6. A weak MJO signal is to build over the West Pacific at that time.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (4/26) This model depicts a modest Inactive Phase in control of the KWGA today with east anomalies in control. East anomalies and the Inactive Phase are to track east and out of the KWGA by 5/4 while moderate west anomalies start developing in the West KWGA pushing east. Stronger west anomalies associated with the Active Phase of the MJO are to build into the Central KWGA 5/6 tracking east and moving east of the KWGA at the end of the model run on 5/22. At that time weak east anomalies are to be fading in the far West KWGA. There is no active support for storm development for the next 5 days, but that to change once the Active Phase takes over.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (4/27) This model depicts a weak Inactive MJO peaking in the KWGA today with modest east anomalies in control holding till 4/30. After that weak to modest west anomalies are to develop in the core of the KWGA as the Active Phase builds 5/3 through 5/25 with west anomalies holding. After that weak west anomalies are to hold even though a moderate Inactive Phase of the MJO is to set up 5/24-6/22. Another modest Active Phase is to develop 6/27 holding through the end of the model run on 7/25 with stronger west anomalies forecast. The low pass filter indicates a low pressure bias with 2 contour lines is fully in control of the KWGA centered on the dateline reaching east to California but not inland and forecast to hold steady position wise to the end of the model run on 7/25. The second contour line was to fade on 7/7, but today is now forecast to hold through the end of the model run. Interesting.. we'll seas if this hold on future model runs. This model indicates that a tendency towards El Nino was previously in control during the Fall of 2018, but has been steadily fading since then and is to continue a slow decline for the foreseeable future, but not turning to La Nina. Basically we are moving to a ENSO neutral pattern bias slightly towards El Nino.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (4/27) Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 29 deg temps reaching east to 170W but retracking some at the surface. The 28 deg isotherm line had retrograded west to 160W mid-Nov into late Feb. But it made a major push east starting 3/16 from 150W to 140W on 3/20, and to 130W on 4/10 and to 121W on 4/14, and 4/22 pushing into Ecuador, then back to 115W on 4/25 and holding today. It appears Kelvin Wave #3 was erupting in the East Pacific. The 24 deg isotherm was pushing into Ecuador 30 meters down. Anomaly wise, gentle warm anomalies are filling the entire subsurface Pacific at +1 degs or greater from the surface to 150 meters down. Embedded in that flow is a pocket of warmer water centered in the East Pacific at 120W at +2-3 degs (Kelvin Wave #3) almost reaching Ecuador and west to 139W. This Kelvin Wave is the warmest of any Kelvin Wave so far since La Nina faded into early 2018 and is to adding warmth moving into 2019. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 4/23 indicates warm water from Kelvin Wave #3 was filling the equatorial Pacific from 155E eastward, weaker in the West Pacific at +2 degs and stronger over the East Pacific at +3 degs from 140W to Ecuador (attributable to a Westerly Wind Burst 12/30-1/16 and another 2/12-2/24). And there was a hint of more warm water dribbling from the Maritime Continent into the far West Pacific at 135E falling into the pre-existing warm pool near 160E. There is a river of very warm water traversing the width of the equatorial Pacific. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (4/23) Positive anomalies were gone from the interior Maritime Continent with weak negative anomalies there now. But positive anomalies were tracking east from 160E pushing over the dateline to a point east of the Galapagos (110W) but pretty unfocused at 0-5 cms above normal. But also pockets of neutral heights were building north and south of the equator at 160W and 110W indicating the density of the warm pool was fading.
Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (4/26) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate temps were modestly warm straddling 20 degrees north and south of the equator from just west of the Galapagos near 100W and continuing west to the dateline. These temps continue fading compared to days past mainly off and along the Central and South America Coast. Cool water previously along the coast of Peru And Ecuador was collapsing. There is some weak indication of a El Nino but nothing strong.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (4/26): A weak warming trend was over the equatorial Central Pacific with a pocket of stronger warming along the coast of Ecuador. Weak cool was on the equator west of the Galapagos.
Hi-res Overview: (4/26) Warmer than normal water was from just off Peru up to Central America west over the Galapagos 20 degrees north and south of the equator continuing west of there to the dateline. It was holding compared to days past.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/27) Today's temps were falling some at +0.281. Overall trend is falling in spurts for the last 3 months except for a recent uptick in mid-April.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/27) Today temps were steady at +0.538 today. Temps have been generally steady the last 6 weeks, but up some over the past 3 months.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (4/27) The model indicates temps were +1.00 degs through April forecast building to +1.3 degrees in early June then fading slowly to +1.25 degs on July 1, fading slightly through the Fall then holding at +1.00 degs in Sept and Oct then down to +0.75 in Dec 1 and steady into Jan. A weak El Nino like pattern is to hold if not build into July associated with the eruption of Kelvin Wave #3, then slowly fading through the Fall and Winter of 2019/20 with no more Kelvin Waves forecast. A multiyear warming event is in progress as suggested by this model.
IRI Consensus Plume: The March 2019 Plume depicts temps are at +0.65 degs today, and are to hold in the +0.75 range into July, then holding at +0.75 through Nov 2019. See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (4/27): The daily index was positive today at +3.17 but otherwise had been negative the previous 16 days, then positive for 7 days before that, and negative for 57 days before that (Feb 4-4/2 other than 3/23 & 3/24). The 30 day average was rising some at -2.90 suggesting a fading Active MJO. The 90 day average was rising some at -7.43, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern biased towards El Nino (for now).
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): (4/23) The index was neutral at -0.01 on 2/14 but has been rising ever since and pushed up to +0.99 on 3/3 (the highest its been in years), then fell some but started rising again and was up to +1.10 today. It is approaching El Nino territory but still indicted mostly ENSO neutral conditions.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO is weakly positive, even though La Nina is in play.
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan -0.23, Feb -0.55 This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave
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