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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Friday, April 21, 2023 1:02 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
2.2 - California & 1.0 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    
Issued for Week of Monday 4/17 thru Sun 4/23
Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Small S. Hemi Swell Pushing Northeast
Another Gale Possible East of New Zealand

 

BUOY ROUNDUP
Friday, April 21, 2023 :

  • Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt)/Buoy 239 (Lani): Seas were 3.2 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 1.7 ft @ 10.9 secs from 286 degrees. Water temp 77.9 degs (Barbers Pt), 77.9 (Pearl Harbor 233), 77.7 (Lani 239).
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Out of Service Buoy 202 (Hanalei) Seas were 5.6 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 4.5 ft @ 8.7 secs from 323 degrees. Water temp 75.7 degs
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.3 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 2.2 ft @ 7.8 secs from 238 degrees. Wind north at 4-6 kts. Water temperature 58.8 degs, 57.6 (Topanga 103), 56.5 degs (Long Beach 215), 58.8 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 58.5 (Del Mar 153), 59.9 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 3.5 ft @ 11.2 secs from 307 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 3.4 ft @ 9.1 secs from 263 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.0 ft @ 13.3 secs from 222 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.2 ft @ 13.3 secs from 206 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.8 ft @ 9.3 secs from 272 degrees. Water temperature was 58.6 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay) Out of Service /029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 6.8 ft @ 5.6 secs with swell 3.4 ft @ 9.3 secs from 320 degrees. Wind northwest at 14-16 kts (46026). Water temp 49.8 (Bodega Bay 46013), 51.3 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 49.6 (San Francisco 46026), 54.1 (SF Bar 142), 53.6 (Pt Santa Cruz 254) and 50.0 (Monterey Bay 46042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Friday (4/21) North and Central CA had sets at waist to maybe chest high and warbled and soft with light onshore winds. Protected breaks were thigh to waist high and soft and warbled but fairly clean. At Santa Cruz surf was thigh to waist high and somewhat lined up and clean but very soft. In Southern California/Ventura waves were up to waist high and somewhat lined up with decent form but lightly textured and crumbled and weak. Central Orange County had sets at waist to maybe chest high on the peak and somewhat lined up and clean but soft and crumbled. South Orange County's best summertime breaks were thigh to waist high and somewhat lined up but weak and formless and soft and textured. North San Diego had sets to waist high and lined up but soft and mushed with clean conditions. Hawaii's North Shore had some sets at waist to maybe chest high and clean but very soft. The South Shore was waist high and somewhat lined up with decent form when the sets came and clean. The East Shore was thigh high and a little warbled with light onshore wind.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Friday (4/21) California was getting small locally generated northwest windswell. Hawaii was getting trade winds generated windswell too. A gale is forecast for the Northern Gulf on Fri-Sat (4/22) producing 21 ft seas aimed east. And down south a gale developed southeast of New Zealand Tues-Wed (4/19) producing up to 39 ft seas aimed northeast. Swell is tracking northeast. And another gale is projected developing east of New Zealand Thurs-Fri (4/28) producing 32 ft seas aimed well north. So there's something to monitor.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Friday (4/21) the jetstream was consolidated while pushing east off Japan with winds to 140 kts then falling into a developing trough on the dateline starting to offer some support for gale development then lifting northeast and poised to push into the Pacific Northwest. Over the next 72 hours the dateline trough is to quickly weaken on Sat (4/22) with winds 110 kts while pushing east positioned 700 nmiles north of Hawaii likely not offering much support for gale development. To the west the jet is to start pushing northeast off Japan just about impacting the Central Aleutians on Mon (4/24) with winds 150 kts but with no troughs offering no support for gale development. And in the east the jet is to be weakly pushing over North CA possibly offering some weather there. Beyond 72 hours starting Wed (4/26) the jet is to become more consolidated running east on the 45N latitude line with winds to 160 kts to the dateline falling into a broad trough there offering some support for gale or at least low pressure development then pushing east on the 50N latitude line over the Gulf of Alaska and into Central Canada. Theoretically that trough is to build into Thurs (4/27) being fed by 180 kts winds offering great support for gale development before starting to pinch off in the Gulf on Fri (4/28). Some hope is possible.


Surface Analysis
On Friday (4/21) no swell producing weather systems of interest have formed with no swell in the water.

Over the next 72 hours starting Thurs PM (4/20) a weak low pressure system started building over the Western Gulf producing 30-35 kts west winds and trying to get traction. On Fri AM (4/21) the low was tracking east with 30 kts west winds and seas 20 ft at 45N 155W aimed east. In the evening fetch is to hold at 30-35 kts with seas 19 ft at 47N 152W aimed east. On Sat AM (4/22) 30 kt west winds to hold over the Gulf well west of Washington with seas 21 ft at 47.75N 149W aimed east. The gael is to fade after that. Something to monitor. Maybe some windswell for North CA on Mon (4/24) but buried in locally generated windswell.

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored at this time.

California Nearshore Forecast

  • Sat AM (4/22) northwest winds to be 20-25 kt for North and 20+ kts for Central CA early. More of the same in the evening.
  • Sun AM (4/23) northwest winds to be 20-25 kt for North and Central CA early. More of the same in the evening. No precip is forecast.
  • Mon AM (4/24) northwest winds to be 25 kt for North and 20-25 kts for Central CA early. More of the same in the evening.
  • Tues AM (4/25) northwest winds to be 20-25 kt for North CA early and 15-20 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 25-30 kts for North CA and 15 kts south of Pt Arena and 10-15 kts from Pillar Point southward.
  • Wed AM (4/26) north winds to be 25 kts for Cape Mendocino with northwest winds 10 kts for the rest of North CA and 10 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 15 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest 5-10 kts from Pt Arena southward.
  • Thurs AM (4/27) a weak eddy flow (south winds) are forecast for North CA early and northwest winds 5 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon south winds are forecast at 5 kts for North CA and southwest 5 kts for Central CA. A summertime pattern is to be in play.
  • Fri AM (4/28) weak west winds are forecast at 1-5 kts for North CA early and northwest 5-10 kts for Central CA. No precip continuing.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches.

Freezing level for Lake Tahoe is 10,500 ft forecast building to 12,500 ft on 4/26 and holding there before dropping to 10,000 ft on 4/30.

- - -

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

 

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
A gale developed in the Southwestern Pacific offering some hope (see Southwestern Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

 

Southwest Pacific Gale
A gale started developing in the Southwest Pacific on Tues AM (4/18) with 45-50 kt southwest winds and seas building. In the evening southwest winds were 50 kts solid over the Central South Pacific with 34 ft seas at 62S 166W aimed east-northeast. On Wed AM (4/19) southwest winds were 45-50 kts starting to track northeast with seas 39 ft at 59.5S 153.75W aimed northeast. Fetch was fading in the evening from 35-40 kts from the south with seas 34 ft at 55S 145.5W aimed northeast. On Thurs AM (4/20) south winds were fading from 30+ kts moving to the Southeast Pacific with seas fading from 29 ft at 52.75S 139.5W aimed northeast. this system was gone after that. Good odds for swell radiating northeast towards the US West Coast, Central America and South America. Something to monitor.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (4/28) building to 1.7 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell peaking mid-day Sat (4/29) at 1.8 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading on Sun (4/30) from 1.8 ft @ 14 secs early (2.5 ft). Dribbles on Mon (5/1) fading from 1.7 ft @ 13 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 192 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (4/28) building to 1.5 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell peaking mid-day Sat (4/29) at 1.7 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading on Sun (4/30) from 1.7 ft @ 14 secs early (2.5 ft). Dribbles on Mon (5/1) fading from 1.8 ft @ 13 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 191 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a gale is forecast developing east of New Zealand on Thurs AM (4/27) with 40-45 kt south winds and seas 31 ft at 44.25S 169.75W aimed northeast. In the evening south winds to be 35-40 kts over a solid area with seas 28-31 ft at 39S 162W aimed north with up to 30 ft sea 600 nmiles south of there. Fetch is to be rebuilding Fri AM (4/28) wit 40-45 kt south winds and 31 ft seas at 45S 162.5W aimed north. Something to monitor.

 

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Major Global Weather Pattern Change Occurring - El Nino Developing
Kelvin Wave #2 in Flight - Active MJO #3 Strong - Equatorial Sea Surface Temps Rising Fast
1 Kelvin Wave traversed the Pacific in Dec '22 with Kelvin Wave #2 in-flight and Kevin Wave #3 developing now. And Westerly Winds are fully established filling the KWGA and forecast filling the Pacific over the next month. And Sea Surface Temperatures are warming to neutral. The last link in the chain is to see the SOI falling (which it is showing preliminary signs of doing). The outlook is turning optimistic.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed through the Winter of 2022. But in late Fall 2022 trades started fading a by early 22023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2022 = 4.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen and a full double dip pattern took hold through the Winter of 21/22. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December 2022 with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter 2022. But by later in Jan or early Feb 2023 a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct 22-Jan 23, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by Feb 2023, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The net result is we're currently thinking a near normal number of swells with normal size and duration is to result, but all focused sometime after Jan 2023. The swell pattern will be below normal before Jan and above normal after Jan 23 with the average of the two being 'normal'. Of course this is all highly speculative at this early date.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (4/20) 5 day average winds were moderate from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and modest east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and light west over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (4/21) Weak west anomalies were filling the KWGA today. The 7 day forecast has west anomalies fading and gone on 4/22 with modest east anomalies setting up over the KWGA through the end of the model run on 4/28. Weak west anomalies are to start building in the West KWGA on 4/27 through the end of the model run.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (4/20) A weak Active MJO was in control of the East KWGA today with the Inactive MJO building in the west. The statistical model indicates a weak Inactive MJO filling the KWGA on day 5 of the model run then starting to fade on day 10 then collapsing and neutral on day 15. The dynamic model indicates the same thing but with a neutral MJO setting up on day 10.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (4/21) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was modest over the Atlantic and is to move to the East Indian Ocean 2 weeks out and very weak. The dynamic model indicates the Active Phase is to move east fast to the Maritime Continent and very weak on day 15.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (4/21) A modest Active (wet air) pattern was over the East Pacific but mostly over the Atlantic today. The forecast has the Active signal (wet air) exiting the East Pacific on 4/26. A moderate Inactive Phase of the MJO (dry air) is to develop over the KWGA on 4/26 easing east and over the Central Pacific 5/6 and over the East Pacific 5/16 and nearly gone by the end of the model run on 5/31. Another Active Phase (wet air) is to start developing over the far West Pacific on 5/16 filling the KWGA on 5/21 and filling the Pacific at the end of the model run.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (4/20)
West anomalies and the Active Phase of the MJO are fading over the KWGA today. The forecast has west anomalies and the Active Phase gone by 4/22. After that neutral MJO pattern is forecast through the end of the model run on 5/18 but with weak east anomalies over the KWGA 4/23 through 5/6. And a pocket of weak west anomalies are to be just east of the dateline 4/28 through 5/11.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind):
(4/21) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Active Phase of the MJO was fading fast over the KWGA with weak west anomalies weakly holding over the KWGA. The forecast indicates the Active Phase of the MJO is to collapse on 4/23 but weak west anomalies are to hold over the KWGA. After that a weak Inactive Phase is forecast 4/23-5/31 but with modest west anomalies holding and filling the KWGA. The next Active Phase of the MJO is to follow starting 5/29 with west anomalies building and filling the KWGA at strong status through the end of the model run on 7/19. A solid El Nino is developing. The shift to El Nino started on 2/15. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 1 contour line centered at 120W with its western perimeter at 165W today and east of the KWGA and moving east fast. A broad low pressure bias is established over the Maritime Continent moving into the West Pacific centered at 125E with it's leading edge steadily pushing east at 175E today (it started pushing east on 2/15). A hard push east is occurring with it's leading edge on the dateline 4/28 filling the KWGA and then filling the most of the Pacific with it's leading edge at 130W at the end of the model run with it's center at 170E. This is all a big deal and is being repeated in some form consistently from one run of the model to the next since Oct 2022. It appears an El Nino is developing.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (4/21) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was moving east at 179E (previously 170E). The 28 deg isotherm line was pushing hard east from 174W to 154W. The 26 degree isotherm has pushed the whole way across the Pacific and getting deeper with pockets of 28 degs temps on the surface. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +2-3 deg C were in a river traversing the Pacific with a building pocket of 3-4 degs anomalies in the far west Pacific at depth. Amazing. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 4/13 indicates a huge very warm ball of 3+ degs anomalies extending from the far West Pacific east to 100W (leading edge of Kelvin Wave #2) and then upwards across and into the East Pacific with +4 degs anomalies from Kelvin Wave #1 there. And another pocket of warming waters were in the far West PAcific at 125E at +5 degs. No cool anomalies were indicated. El Nino is developing. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (4/13) Sea heights were positive across the equatorial Pacific connected to the East Pacific at +5 cms over the entirety of it's width reaching east to Ecuador and building to +5-10 cms there. This means no cool water was at depth. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram warm water continues building in intensity and coverage in the West to 105W at +1.75 degs connected to a second pocket starting at 99W at at +1.0-1.5 degs reaching east to Ecuador.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (4/20) The latest images depict a strong warm signal along the coasts of Peru and Ecuador with a tongue extending west over the Galapagos and continuing west along the equator reaching to 135W (results of Kelvin Wave #1). Warm temps continued west from there on the equator across the dateline and beyond. This is a clear El Nino signal. And warmer than normal temps were present well off the coasts of Chile and Peru and building in intensity and weaker over the entirety of the deep South Pacific. The last remnants of La Nina are gone on the equator and a clear El Nino signal is building. But, remnants of La Nina are evident along the California and Baja coast with cold temps and the normal La Nina enhanced Springtime upwelling pattern in control.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (4/20): A neutral if not weak cooling trend was along the coasts of Chile, Peru and Ecuador as Kelvin Wave #1 starts fading. But a solid stream of warming temps were from 100 west to 165E. The pattern of adding energy to the warm surface pool has faded in the east but continue in the west. A warming trend has been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 with no cooling waters over the equatorial East Pacific since 12/15 except for the time frame from 4/23 to today.
Hi-res Overview: (4/20) Warming waters are filling the East Pacific off Chile, Peru and Ecuador with strong warming along the immediate cost of Peru and Ecuador. And an El Nino tongue of more intense warming is developing on the equator west to 135W and from there to the dateline and beyond. No cool waters were on the equator anymore. There no sign of La Nina on the oceans surface and everything is now looking like El Nino. The east equatorial Pacific is finally and steadily warming.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/21) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs compared to official sources). Today's temps are fading some today at +2.461 having previously peaked at +2.891 (4/13), Previously temps reached +2.302 degrees on 4/6, +1.732 degs (3/22), up from +0.462 since 2/28. Temps had reached as high as +1.076 on 2/19 and were previously steady at +0.848 since 2/7. Previously they started steadily rising 11/13 when they were around -1.5 degs C.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(4/21) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs). Temps were rising at +0.199 degs (8 days above 0.0). Temp hit 0.0 on 4/12 and have been more or less steady the past 4 weeks. Temps previously rose to -0.402 on 2/23. Temps rose above the La Nina threshold (-0.5 degs) on 2/22 and had been rising slowly since 2/12 when they were about -1.0 degs C. Then had been in the -1.0 deg range since at least Nov 2022.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs. A steady decline set in after that falling to -1.00 degs in Aug and Sept rising to -0.8 degs mid Oct then falling to -1.0 in Nov but then slowly rising to -0.75 degs in Jan 2023 and up to -0.5 degs above the La Nina threshold on 2/12.
Forecast (4/21) - Temps are inching just above neutral (0.1 degs) and are forecast rising to +1.45 degs in July and +2.55 degs in Nov and solidly into El Nino territory. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps are forecast rising to +1.25 degs in July and +2.00 degs in Nov. According to this version of the model we are building into ENSO neutral in Spring and into El Nino in Summer.
IRI Consensus Plume: The April 19, 2023 Plume depicts temps are +0.434 degs today and it's the second month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to rise steadily from here forward to +0.711 degs in May rising to +1.149 in July and up to +1.269 degrees in Oct then fading from there. This is an upgrade from previous runs. The CFS model is on the upper range of all models. This model suggests a transition to El Nino.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (4/21) the Daily Index was negative at -19.97 and has been near neutral to negative the past 11 days, positive the 6 days prior after being mostly negative 25 days before that. It fell to -19.40 on 4/2. -17.44 on 2/22, the beginning of a change from which no return seemed likely. It was up to +21.85 on 2/10 and +55.74 on 12/22 and were in the +20 range the previous 22 days.
The 30 day average was falling to -0.95 after falling to -4.13 on 4/4 (lagging indicator driven by the Active Phase of the MJO) after falling to -0.52 on 3/22 previously falling to +4.18 on 11/27 and peaking at +21.57 (10/16) after supposedly peaking at +19.66 on 9/28. It was down to +6.89 on 7/29. It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was falling at +3.86 after peaking at +14.63 on 2/20, +15.61 on 10/25 and +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggests that the Active Phase occurring now is starting to drive the index down, hopefully with no upward trend in sight for at least a year.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


Powerlines Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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