Thursday, April 6, 2023
- Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt)/Buoy 239 (Lani): Seas were 3.1 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 1.4 ft @ 13.3 secs from 199 degrees. Water temp 77.0 degs (Barbers Pt), 77.0 (Pearl Harbor 233), 77.9 (Lani 239).
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Out of Service Buoy 202 (Hanalei) Seas were 6.4 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 5.2 ft @ 6.5 secs from 64 degrees. Water temp 75.0 degs
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.6 ft @ 6.7 secs with swell 1.9 ft @ 6.3 secs from 265 degrees. Wind north at 4 kts. Water temperature 56.3 degs, 53.4 (Topanga 103), 54.3 degs (Long Beach 215), 54.1 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 55.2 (Del Mar 153), 55.4 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 3.7 ft @ 6.4 secs from 306 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 2.9 ft @ 6.3 secs from 280 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.7 ft @ 6.3 secs from 264 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.8 ft @ 6.4 secs from 274 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.6 ft @ 6.3 secs from 285 degrees. Water temperature was 57.2 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay) Out of Service /029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 2.3 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 1.0 ft @ 14.8 secs from 204 degrees. Wind south at 2 kts (46026). Water temp 50.0 (Bodega Bay 46013), 50.7 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 50.0 (San Francisco 46026), 53.4 (SF Bar 142), 52.3 (Pt Santa Cruz 254) and NA (Monterey Bay 46042).
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Thursday (4/6) North and Central CA had sets at thigh high and soft and clean. Protected breaks were flat and clean. At Santa Cruz surf was flat to thigh high and soft with some texture on top. In Southern California/Ventura waves were flat to knee high and mushed and pretty ruffled from northwest wind. Central Orange County was flat and clean. South Orange County's best summertime breaks were flat and clean. North San Diego had sets at thigh to maybe waist high and somewhat lined up and soft but clean. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and warbled from northeast winds and rainy. The South Shore had some rare waist high sets and lined up and clean with decent form. East Shore was waist high and chopped from moderate easterly trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Thursday (4/6) California and Hawaii were getting no swell other than small locally generated windswell. A small gale is developing in the Western Gulf of Alaska tracking east Wed-Fri (4/7) producing up to 28 ft seas on Sat (4/8) off British Columbia then fading there. Secondary fetch directly behind to produce 18-19 ft seas Sat-Sun (4/9) in the Central Gulf aimed southeast. Down south on Wed-Thurs (4/6) a small gale was trying to develop under New Zealand producing up to 26 ft seas aimed northeast but so small to be not capable of producing swell. It seem like a somewhat improving pattern is trying to develop.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Thursday (4/6) the jetstream was split over Japan then consolidating over the far Northwest Gulf of Alaska with winds building to 150 kts falling into a tight trough off the Pacific Northwest supporting low pressure development before pushing onshore while lifting north over Washington. Over the next 72 hours the northern branch of the jet is to build some while tracking through the West Bering Sea falling southeast over the dateline starting to dig out a new trough in the Western Gulf being fed by 150 kt winds and getting better defined on Sat (4/8) over the Central Gulf offering good support for gale development, That trough is to push east into late Sun (4/9) into the Eastern Gulf while pinching off some there and eventually pushing onshore over Washington and British Columbia on Tues (4/11) with support for gale development fading out. Beyond 72 hours the jet is to improve some with the split point moving east well off Japan making it to about 170E almost reaching the dateline with all energy pushing into the northern branch of the jet and tracking over the Aleutians offering no support for gale development.
On Thursday (4/6) a gale was tracking through the Gulf of Alaska (see Possible Gulf Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours starting Fri PM (4/7) secondary fetch is to develop falling southeast from the Eastern Aleutians producing 30 kt northwest winds starting to get traction. On Sat AM (4/8) fetch is to be over the Central Gulf at 30-35 kts producing 19-20 ft seas at 46N 181W aimed southeast. In the evening northwest winds to be fading from 30 kts with seas 19 ft at 43N 153W aimed southeast. Fetch and seas to fade from there. Maybe backup windswell is to reach the US West Coast with luck.
Possible Gulf Gale
On Wed PM (4/5) a gale developed on the dateline moving towards the Western Gulf of Alaska producing west winds at 35-40 kts and seas building at 43N 180W aimed east. On Thurs AM (4/6) winds were 35 kts from the west in the far Western Gulf with seas building to 22 ft at 44N 171.25W aimed east. Fetch is to be building to 35-40 kts over the Western Gulf with seas 23 ft at 44.5N 164W aimed east. On Fri AM the gale is to be in the Central Gulf and building with 40-45 kt northwest winds and seas 23 ft at 46.75N 154.75W aimed east. In the evening the gale is to track east with 40 kt northwest winds off Washington and seas 25 ft at 48.75N 147.25W aimed east. On Sat AM (4/8) the gale is to be fading while starting to lift northeast off British Columbia with 35 kts west winds extending from the Western Gulf into Oregon and seas 28 ft at 50.75N 140.5W. In the evening west winds to continue at 35 kts off Central Canada with seas 25 ft at 51.75N 141.25W aimed east. The gale to fade from there. Something to monitor.
North CA: Rough data suggest swell arrival on Sun afternoon (4/9) building to 4.5 ft @ 14 secs late (6.0 ft). Swell continues on Mon (4/10) at 4.8 ft @ 13-14 secs (6.5 ft). Swell fading on Tues (4/11) from 4.7 ft @ 12 secs (5.5 ft) with windswell building on top. Swell Direction: 299 degrees and shadowed in the SF Bay Area.
Southern CA: Rough data suggest swell arrival on Mon (4/10) building to 2.0 ft @ 13-14 secs later (2.5 ft) at exposed breaks. Swell building early Tues (4/11) to 2.4 ft @ 12-13 secs early (3.0 ft) at exposed breaks but then being overtaken by windswell later. Swell Direction: 300-305 degrees
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored at this time.
California Nearshore Forecast
- Fri AM (4/7) northwest winds to be 5 kts for Cape Mendocino with south winds 15 kts over Pt Reyes and light winds over Central CA. In the evening a new front is to be building well off the coast with northwest winds 5-10 kts for North CA and 5 kts or less for Central CA. Rain for all of North CA early pushing south to Big Sur in the afternoon while fading then clearing in the evening. Modest snow for Tahoe building south over the Central Sierra late afternoon fading early evening.
- Sat AM (4/8) the front is to be just off Cape Mendocino with south winds 5-10 kts there and northwest winds 1-5 kts for the rest of North CA and northwest 5 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon southwest winds to be 5-10 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest 1-5 kts for the rest of North CA and northwest 5 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast.
- Sun AM (4/9) northwest winds to be 5 kts for North Ca and 5-10 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon southwest winds to be 5-10 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest 10 kts for the rest of North CA with northwest winds 10-15 kts for Central CA. Rain for North CA early reaching to Monterey Bay mid-AM fading in the afternoon.
- Mon AM (4/10) northwest winds to be 5-10 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds are to be 10 kts for all of North and Central CA. Light rain for Cape Mendocino in the afternoon continuing through the evening.
- Tues AM (4/11) low pressure is to be circulating off Washington with northwest winds 10-15 kts for North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon high pressure takes over with northwest winds to be 15 kts for North Ca and 20-25 kts for Central CA. Light rain for Cape Mendocino.
- Wed AM (4/12) northwest winds and high pressure to take over at 20-25 kts for North CA early and 25-30 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 25-30 kts for North CA and 30 kts for Central CA. Light rain for Cape Mendocino.
- Thurs AM (4/13) northwest winds to be 30 kts for North CA and 25 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 25+ kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast.
Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 24, 28, 19, and 3 inches with some accumulation on 4/6 in the evening into the morning of 4/7 and then again on 4/13-4/14.
Freezing level for Lake Tahoe is 7,000 ft then building to 12,000 ft on 4/9 before falling to about 10,000 ft on 4/10-4/11 then falling 4/12 to 5,000 ft down to 2,000 ft briefly on 4/14 before rebounding up to 8.500 ft on 4/15.
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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).
A gale was tracking east under New Zealand but likely not offering much swell production potential (See new Zealand Gale below). .
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
New Zealand Gale
A gale developed south of New Zealand on Wed AM (4/5) producing 40-45 kts southwest winds over a tiny area with seas building from 21 ft at 60S 170E aimed northeast. In the evening the gale was easing east with 40-45 kt west winds and seas 26 ft over a tiny area at 58S 172E aimed east-northeast. The gale was tracking east on Thurs AM (4/6) with southwest winds at 35-40 kt aimed east-northeast with 24 ft seas at 57S 175E. The gale is to fade in the evening while falling southeast. No or only minimal swell production seems likely given the gales limited size and wind speeds.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.
Major Global Weather Pattern Change Occurring - El Nino Developing
Kelvin Wave #2 in Flight - Active MJO #3 Strong - Sea Surface Temps Rising Fast
1 Kelvin Wave traversed the Pacific in Dec '22 with Kelvin Wave #2 in-flight and Kevin Wave #3 developing now. And Westerly Winds are fully established filling the KWGA and forecast filling the Pacific over the next month. And Sea Surface Temperatures are warming to neutral. The last link in the chain is to see the SOI falling (which it is showing preliminary signs of doing). The outlook is turning optimistic.
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).
Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed through the Winter of 2022. But in late Fall 2022 trades started fading a by early 22023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2022 = 4.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen and a full double dip pattern took hold through the Winter of 21/22. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December 2022 with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter 2022. But by later in Jan or early Feb 2023 a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct 22-Jan 23, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by Feb 2023, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The net result is we're currently thinking a near normal number of swells with normal size and duration is to result, but all focused sometime after Jan 2023. The swell pattern will be below normal before Jan and above normal after Jan 23 with the average of the two being 'normal'. Of course this is all highly speculative at this early date.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (4/5) 5 day average winds were moderate from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. Anomalies were light east over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and modest east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (4/6) moderate east anomalies were in the KWGA over the dateline from 150E eastward with moderate to strong west anomalies from 150E and points west of there filling 45% of the KWGA. The 7 day forecast has the same thing holding through the model run ending 4/13 but with west anomalies building to strong status 4/8-4/11. And coverage of the westerly anomalies are to start building 4/11 filling the KWGA at weak status.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
- MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (4/5) A modest Active MJO was in control of the KWGA today. The statistical model indicates a modest Active MJO is to hold stationary over the KWGA on day 5 and 10 then fading on day 15 as the Inactive Phase starts building in. The dynamic model indicates the same thing initially but with the Active Phase building to strong status on days 10 and 15 of the model run over the KWGA.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (4/6) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was weak over the West KWGA and is to move to the Atlantic 2 weeks from now and weak. The dynamic model indicates the Active Phase stationary over the West Pacific and building to moderate strength 6 days out and then fading while easing to the East Pacific on day 15.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (4/6) A modest Active (wet air) pattern was over the West Pacific today. The forecast has the Active signal (wet air) slowly easing east over the KWGA and filling the bulk of the Pacific 4/11-4/21 then starting to ease over the East Pacific on 4/26 then into Ecuador through 5/6 with a weak Inactive Phase of the MJO (dry air) developing over the KWGA on 5/1 easing east and over the East Pacific at the end of the model run on 5/16.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (4/5) The Inactive Phase of the MJO was fading over the dateline today mainly east of 150E with modest east anomalies filling the dateline region and solid west anomalies west of there. The forecast indicates the Inactive Phase of the MJO is to slowly fade through 4/15 with east anomalies dissipating then. West anomalies and the Active Phase of the MJO are to steadily build west of 150E to strong status on 4/7 reaching to 170E on 4/13 and holding peaking through 4/26 then fading while moving and filling the KWGA on 4/27 holding at modest strength through the end of the model run on 5/3 reaching east to a point south of California.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (4/4) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Inactive Phase of the MJO was collapsing over the KWGA with east anomalies at modest strength over mainly the dateline and the Active Phase and west anomalies building over the West KWGA. The forecast indicates the Inactive Phase of the MJO is to fade and gone by 4/9 with east anomalies gone then. The Active Phase of the MJO and west anomalies are to start building over the KWGA filling it 4/14-4/30 with strong west anomalies over that wind and continuing till 5/6. A Westerly Wind Burst (WWB) seems likely. After that a weak Inactive Phase is forecast 4/26-6/9 but with modest to moderate west anomalies holding and filling the KWGA. A weak Active Phase is to follow with west anomalies holding filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 7/4. A solid El Nino is developing. The shift to El Nino started on 2/15. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 1 contour line centered at 135W with its western perimeter at 175W today and moving east fast and forecast east of the KWGA by 4/22. A broad low pressure bias is established centered over the West Maritime Continent at 120E with it's leading edge steadily pushing east at 170E today (it started pushing east on 2/15). A hard push east is forecast moving forward and on the dateline 4/26 filling the KWGA and then filling the most of the Pacific with it's leading edge at 130W at the end of the model run with it's center at 170E. This is all a big deal and is being repeated in some form consistently from one run of the model to the next since Oct 2022. It appears an El Nino is developing.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (4/6) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was building east to 170E. The 28 deg isotherm line was easing east to 175W. The 26 degree isotherm has pushed the whole way across the Pacific and building in thickness in the east with shallow temps to 28 degs. This is a big deal and the first time this has happened in years. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +3 deg C were in a broad pocket with the leading edge at 135W and recharging and connected to a second pool of warm water from a previous Kelvin Wave #1 off Ecuador with +3 degs anomalies there. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 3/29 indicates a huge very warm ball of 3+ degs anomalies centered at 170W stretching from the far West Pacific and reaching east to 115W (leading edge of Kelvin Wave #2) and then upwards across and into the East Pacific with +5 degs anomalies there. And another pocket of warming waters were in the far West PAcific at 125E. No cool anomalies were indicated. El Nino is developing. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (3/29) Sea heights were positive across the equatorial Pacific connected to the East Pacific at +5 cms over the entirety of it's width (other than a little break from 115-120W) reaching east to Ecuador and building to +5-10 cms there. This means no cool water was at depth. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram warm water continues building in intensity and coverage in the West to 122W at +2.25 degs connected to a second pocket starting at 110W at at +1.0-1.5 degs reaching east to Ecuador.
Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (4/5) The latest images depict a strong warm signal along the coasts of Peru and Ecuador with a tongue trying to extend west along the equator from Ecuador but only reaching 110W (previously 130W - results of Kelvin Wave #1) and building in intensity. And warmer than normal temps were present well off the coasts of Chile and Peru and building in intensity and weaker over the entirety of the deep South Pacific. The last remnants of La Nina are gone.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (4/5): Warming is in scattered pockets along the coasts of Peru and Ecuador and off the coasts then to 100W. Weak warming is along and north of the equator across the bulk of the equatorial Pacific. Weak cooling waters are lingering on the equator from the Galapagos to 135W, likely driven by the current Inactive MJO. So the pattern of adding energy to the warm surface pool has backed off some for the moment. A warming trend has been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 with no cooling waters over the equatorial East Pacific since 12/15 except for the time frame from 4/23 to today.
Hi-res Overview: (4/5) Warming waters are filling the East Pacific off Chile, Peru and Ecuador with strong warming along the immediate cost of Peru and Ecuador. And an El Nino tongue of more intense warming that was developing in the East Equatorial Pacific has stalled for the moment. No cool waters were on the equator anymore. There no sign of La Nina on the oceans surface and everything is pointing to a developing El Nino now. The east equatorial Pacific is finally and steadily warming.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/6) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs compared to official sources). Today's temps were again rising at +2.302 degrees after rising to +1.732 degs (3/22), up from +0.462 since 2/28. Temps had reached as high as +1.076 on 2/19 and were previously steady at +0.848 since 2/7. Previously they started steadily rising 11/13 when they were around -1.5 degs C.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/6) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs). Temps were rising some at -0.100 degs and have been steady the past 5 weeks. Temps previously rose to -0.402 on 2/23. Temps rose above the La Nina threshold (-0.5 degs) on 2/22 and had been rising slowly since 2/12 when they were about -1.0 degs C. Then had been in the -1.0 deg range since at least Nov 2022.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs. A steady decline set in after that falling to -1.00 degs in Aug and Sept rising to -0.8 degs mid Oct then falling to -1.0 in Nov but then slowly rising to -0.75 degs in Jan 2023 and up to -0.5 degs above the La Nina threshold on 2/12.
Forecast (4/6) - Temps are neutral (0.0 degs) and are forecast rising to +1.35 degs in July and +2.2 degs in Nov and solidly into El Nino territory. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps are at neutral (0.0 degs) and are forecast rising to +1.05 degs in July and +1.80 degs in Nov. According to this version of the model we are building into ENSO neutral in Spring and into El Nino in Summer.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Mar 20, 2023 Plume depicts temps are +0.038 degs today and finally above the La nina threshold. Temps to rise steadily from here forward to +0.493 degs in May rising to +0.779 in July and holding there beyond. This is consistent with the previous run. This model suggests a transition to ENSO neutral if not weak El Nino. This model is in line with the CFS model.
See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (4/6) the Daily Index was positive at 12.98 and had been mostly negative the last 25 days. It fell to -19.40 on 4/2. -17.44 on 2/22, the beginning of a change from which no return seemed likely. It was up to +21.85 on 2/10 and +55.74 on 12/22 and were in the +20 range the previous 22 days.
The 30 day average was rising at -3.90 (lagging indicator driven by the Active Phase of the MJO) after falling to -0.52 on 3/22 previously falling to +4.18 on 11/27 and peaking at +21.57 (10/16) after supposedly peaking at +19.66 on 9/28. It was down to +6.89 on 7/29. It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was falling at +4.82 after peaking at +14.63 on 2/20, +15.61 on 10/25 and +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggests that the Active Phase occurring now is starting to drive the index down, hopefully with no upward trend in sight for at least a year.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131
Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ
Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.
Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table