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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Sunday, April 2, 2023 2:30 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
3.1 - California & 1.5 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    
Issued for Week of Monday 4/3 thru Sun 4/9
Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Gale Forecast for Gulf
Some Movement Forecast Down South

 

BUOY ROUNDUP
Sunday, April 2, 2023 :

  • Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt)/Buoy 239 (Lani): Seas were 2.9 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 1.3 ft @ 13.5 secs from 209 degrees. Water temp 77.0 degs (Barbers Pt), 77.5 (Pearl Harbor 233), 77.7 (Lani 239).
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Out of Service Buoy 202 (Hanalei) Out of Service
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.0 ft @ 6.2 secs with swell 2.3 ft @ 6.0 secs from 263 degrees. Wind east at 6-8 kts. Water temperature 57.2 degs, 56.5 (Topanga 103), 56.8 degs (Long Beach 215), 57.0 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 58.1 (Del Mar 153), 57.9 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 1.4 ft @ 14.3 secs from 193 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 0.6 ft @ 12.8 secs from 260 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.1 ft @ 13.4 secs from 219 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 2.5 ft @ 6.5 secs from 274 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.2 ft @ 15.4 secs from 190 degrees. Water temperature was 58.3 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay) Out of Service /029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 4.0 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 2.0 ft @ 13.9 secs from 223 degrees. Wind northwest at 14-16 kts (46026). Water temp 51.1 (Bodega Bay 46013), 51.1 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 52.3 (San Francisco 46026), 52.0 (SF Bar 142), 52.7 (Pt Santa Cruz 254) and NA (Monterey Bay 46042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (4/2) North and Central CA had sets at knee to maybe thigh high and nearly chopped from northwest winds and mushed with small whitecaps. Protected breaks were flat and heavily textured early. At Santa Cruz surf was knee to thigh high and fairly clean and very soft. In Southern California/Ventura waves were knee to maybe thigh high and clean but with intermixed warble and mushed. Central Orange County had sets to near chest high on the peak and soft and fairly clean with some texture on top. South Orange County's best summertime breaks were maybe thigh high and mushed with moderate texture from onshore winds. North San Diego had sets at thigh to waist high and somewhat lined up and soft with some texture intermixed. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was thigh to waist high and somewhat clean but warbled and soft. The East Shore was waist high and chopped from east-southeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (4/2) California and Hawaii were getting no real swell other than tiny remnant southern hemi swell hitting Southern CA. A small gale is forecast developing in the Gulf of Alaska on Thurs (4/6) producing 20 ft seas aimed east at the US West Coast. And another is forecast for the Northwestern Gulf falling southeast Sat-Sun (4/9) producing 21 ft seas targeting Hawaii well. And down south on Wed-Thurs (4/6) perhaps a small gale is to develop under New Zealand producing up to 30 ft seas aimed northeast. It seem like an improving pattern is finally possible.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Sunday (4/2) the jetstream was mostly consolidated pushing off Japan forming a trough there then tracking east and splitting before reaching the dateline with most energy tracking northeast up into the East Bering Sea then falling southeast just off the Canadian Coast forming a weak trough there before pushing inland over North Oregon offering no real support for gale development. The southern branch was tracking east on the 20N latitude line pushing into Baja offering nothing. Over the next 72 hours the trough off Japan is to pinch off offering nothing while the trough off Canada moves inland on Mon (4/3). Beyond 72 hours the jet is to improve some with the jet consolidating over the Central Gulf on Fri (4/7) forming a trough deepening into Sat (4/8) with 130 kts north winds pushing down into it offering good support for gale development and holding strength while easing east into Sun (4/9). This is an improvement.


Surface Analysis
On Sunday (4/2) no swell was in the water or being generated.

Over the next 72 hours no change is forecast.

But a low pressure system developed over the Northern Gulf on Fri (3/31) producing northwest winds at 25-30 kts targeting the Pacific Northwest and continued while slowly easing east before fading on Sun (4/2) afternoon off Oregon. Seas were 15 ft on Sat (4/1) near 50N 142W aimed southeast. Perhaps some windswell to result for the Pacific Northwest and North CA (see QuikCAST).

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored at this time.

California Nearshore Forecast

  • Mon AM (4/3) high pressure builds in with northwest winds 25 kts for North and Central CA and 25 kts down into Southern CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 20-25 kts for North CA and 30 kts for Central CA and 30-35 kts for Southern CA. Light rain for North CA down to Monterey Bay early fading mid-morning. Snow for the Sierra holding through the day fading in the evening.
  • Tues AM (4/4) northwest winds to be 15 kts for Cape Mendocino and 20-25 kts for Bodega Bay southward to Pt Conception and 15 kts for Southern CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15 kts for North CA and 20 kts for Central CA. Rain for North CA falling south down to Bodega Bay in the afternoon.
  • Wed AM (4/5) northwest winds to be 10 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon south winds to be 15 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest 5-10 kts for the remainder of North CA and northwest 15-20 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast.
  • Thurs AM (4/6) winds to be south 15 kts for Cape Mendocino and north 5 kts for the rest of North CA and northwest 15-20 kts for Central CA south of Big Sur. In the afternoon south winds to be 15-20 kts for Cape Mendocino and west 5 kts south of there to Big Sur then northwest 15 kts to Pt Conception.
  • Fri AM (4/7) south winds to be 15-20 kts sown to Pt Arena and south 5-10 kts down to the Golden Gate and northwest 10-15 kts south of Big Sur. In the evening south winds to be 15-20 kts for Cape Mendocino and 10 kts down to the Golden Gate with northwest winds 15 kts south of Big Sur to Pt Conception.
  • Sat AM (4/8) west winds to be 5 kts for North CA early and northwest 15 kts south of Big Sur. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 5-10 kts for North CA and 15 kts from Big Sur southward.
  • Sun AM (4/9) northwest winds to be 5-10 kts for North CA early and 15 kts south of Big Sur. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 5 kts for Cape Mendocino and 15 kts for Bodega Bay southward.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 8, 9, 8, and 3 inches with all accumulation 4/2-4/3.

Freezing level for Lake Tahoe is 5,200 ft through 4/2 falling to 3,500 ft 4/3-4/4 then building 4/5 from 5,500 ft to 12.500 ft on 4/9 and holding beyond. Spring is coming.

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

 

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
N
o swell producing weather systems have occurred.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a gale is forecast developing in the Western Gulf of Alaska on Wed PM (4/5) producing west winds at 40 kts and seas 23 ft at 42N 170.5W aimed east. ON Thurs AM (4/6) winds to be 40 kts from the west with seas building to 26 ft at 40.75N 161.75W aimed east. Fetch is to be fading in the evening from 30-35 kts off North CA with seas 22 ft at 39.5N 154.5W aimed east. On Fri AM the gale is to be just off North CA with 35 kts northwest winds and seas 21 ft at 41.5N 145.5W aimed east. In the evening the gale is to lift northeast with 30 kts northwest winds off Washington and seas fading from 19 ft at 42N 137.25W aimed east. Something to monitor.

Maybe some secondary follow on fetch to follow in the Northwestern Gulf on Sat (4/8) too.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a gale is forecast developing south of New Zealand on Wed PM (4/5) with 40 kt southwest winds and seas 27 ft over a tiny area at 58S 171E aimed east-northeast. The gale is to lift northeast on Thurs AM (4/6) with southwest winds at 30-35 kts aimed northeast with 25 ft seas at 57S 179E. The gale is to fade in the evening. No swell production seems likely.

A stronger system is forecast in the deep Southwest Pacific on Sun (4/9) with 55 kt west winds and seas 43 ft at 62.75S 176W. Something to hope for.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Major Global Weather Pattern Change Occurring - El Nino Developing
Kelvin Wave #2 in Flight - Active MJO #3 Strong - Sea Surface Temps Rising Fast
1 Kelvin Wave traversed the Pacific in Dec '22 with Kelvin Wave #2 in-flight and Kevin Wave #3 developing now. And Westerly Winds are fully established filling the KWGA and forecast filling the Pacific over the next month. And Sea Surface Temperatures are warming to neutral. The last link in the chain is to see the SOI falling (which it is showing preliminary signs of doing). The outlook is turning optimistic.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed through the Winter of 2022. But in late Fall 2022 trades started fading a by early 22023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2022 = 4.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen and a full double dip pattern took hold through the Winter of 21/22. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December 2022 with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter 2022. But by later in Jan or early Feb 2023 a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct 22-Jan 23, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by Feb 2023, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The net result is we're currently thinking a near normal number of swells with normal size and duration is to result, but all focused sometime after Jan 2023. The swell pattern will be below normal before Jan and above normal after Jan 23 with the average of the two being 'normal'. Of course this is all highly speculative at this early date.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (4/1) 5 day average winds were moderate from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate to strong east over the Central Pacific and light to moderate east over the KWGA. Anomalies were weak east and west over the East equatorial Pacific and weak east over the Central Pacific and weak to modest east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (4/2) moderate east anomalies were in the KWGA from 145E eastward with moderate west anomalies west of there over the western 25% of the KWGA. The 7 day forecast has the same thing holding but with west anomalies building to strong status and holding coverage from 145E and points west of there in the far west KWGA.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (4/1) A weak Active MJO was in control of the KWGA today. The statistical model indicates a modest Active MJO is to hold stationary over the KWGA for the next 2 weeks. The dynamic model indicates the same thing initially but with the Active Phase fading a little on day 5 and 10 then building to moderate strength on day 15 of the mode run over the KWGA.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (4/2) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was weak over the far West KWGA and is to move slowly to the East Pacific 2 weeks from now and still weak. The dynamic model indicates the Active Phase stationary over the West Pacific at weak status through day 15.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (4/2) A weak Active (wet air) pattern was over the West Pacific today. The forecast has a weak Active signal (wet air) slowly easing east over the KWGA and filling the bulk of the Pacific by 4/7-4/12 then starting to ease over the East Pacific on 4/17 then into Ecuador on 4/27 with a weak Inactive Phase of the MJO (dry air) developing over the KWGA on 4/22 filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 5/12. Maybe a weak ACtive signal (wet air) is to start building over the far West KWGA.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (4/1)
The Inactive Phase of the MJO was in control of the KWGA today mainly east of 140E with modest east anomalies filling the KWGA and solid west anomalies west of there. The forecast indicates the Inactive Phase of the MJO is to traverse the KWGA while fading through 4/22 with moderate east anomalies tracking east over the dateline and points east of there then fading on 4/25. West anomalies are to hold west of 150E then starting to push east on 4/10 reaching to 160E and then building to a point south of California while holding at 150E on 4/26 through the end of the model run on 4/29. Here comes another Active Phase.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind):
(4/2) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Inactive Phase of the MJO was past its peak still filling the KWGA with east anomalies at modest strength over mainly the dateline. The forecast indicates the Inactive Phase of the MJO is to fade and gone by 4/9 with east anomalies holding till then over the dateline but turning weak westerly today from 145E and points west of there even as the Inactive Phase still is in control. The Active Phase is to follow starting 4/3 with west anomalies building steadily from there. By 4/16 west anomalies to lightly be in control of the KWGA then building to strong status on 4/24 and holding through 5/20 fading to weak status as the Inactive Phase of the MJO sets up 5/20-6/7. But even as the Inactive Phase is in control, west anomalies to start building to strong status 6/5 building steadily at strong status through the end of the model run on 6/30. Sure looks like a major El Nino is developing. The shift to El Nino started on 2/15. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 1 contour line centered at 135W with its western perimeter at 180W today and moving east fast and forecast east of the KWGA by 4/10. A broad double contour low pressure bias is established centered over the West Maritime Continent at 120E with it's leading edge steadily pushing east at 170E today (it started pushing east on 2/15). A hard push east is forecast moving forward and on the dateline 4/24 filling the KWGA and then filling the most of the Pacific with it's leading edge at 130W at the end of the model run and is center at 175E. This is all a big deal and is being repeated in some form consistently from one run of the model to the next since Oct 2022. It appears an El Nino is developing.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (4/2) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was building east to 167E. The 28 deg isotherm line was easing east to 178W. The 26 degree isotherm has pushed the whole way across the Pacific and building in thickness in the east with shallow temps to 28 degs. This is a big deal and the first time this has happened in years. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +3 deg C were in a broad pocket with the leading edge at 140W and recharging and connected to warm water from a previous Kelvin Wave #1 off Ecuador with +3 degs anomalies there. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 3/29 indicates a huge very warm ball of 4+ degs anomalies centered at 170W stretching from the far West Pacific and reaching east to 115W (leading edge of Kelvin Wave #2) and then upwards across and into the East Pacific with +5 degs anomalies there. And another pocket of warming waters were in the far West PAcific at 125E. No cool anomalies were indicated. El Nino is developing. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (3/29) Sea heights were positive across the equatorial Pacific connected to the East Pacific at +5 cms over the entirety of it's width (other than a little break from 115-120W) reaching east to Ecuador and building to +5-10 cms there. This means no cool water was at depth. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram warm water continues building in intensity and coverage in the West to 122W at +2.25 degs connected to a second pocket starting at 110W at at +1.0-1.5 degs reaching east to Ecuador.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (4/1) The latest images depict a strong warm signal along the coasts of Peru and Ecuador with a tongue extending west along the equator from Ecuador to 130W (results of Kelvin Wave #1) and building in intensity. And warmer than normal temps were present well off the coasts of Chile and Peru and building in intensity and weaker over the entirety of the deep South Pacific. The last remnants of La Nina are fading with barely cool water on the equator extending west from 150W.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (4/1): Warming is collapsing along the coasts of Peru, Chile and Ecuador. Weak warming is along and north of the equator across the bulk of the equatorial Pacific. Weak cooling waters previously over the equator from the Galapagos west to 140W is fading fast, likely driven by the current Inactive MJO. So the pattern of adding energy to the warm pool has backed off some for the moment. A warming trend has been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 with no cooling waters over the equatorial East Pacific since 12/15 except for the time frame from 4/23 to today.
Hi-res Overview: (4/1) Warming waters are filling the East Pacific off Chile, Peru and Ecuador with strong warming along the immediate cost of Peru and Ecuador. And an El Nino tongue of more intense warming is developing in the East Equatorial Pacific. Cool waters were on the equator limited to one small pocket from about 150W to 165E and collapsing rapidly and almost indiscernible. There no legitimate sign of La Nina on the oceans surface and everything is pointing to El Nino now. The east equatorial Pacific is finally and steadily warming.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/2) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs compared to official sources). Today's temps were again rising at +2.037 degrees after rising to +1.732 degs (3/22), up from +0.462 since 2/28. Temps had reached as high as +1.076 on 2/19 and were previously steady at +0.848 since 2/7. Previously they started steadily rising 11/13 when they were around -1.5 degs C.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(4/2) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs). Temps were steady today at -0.112 degs and have been steady the past 5 weeks. Temps previously rose to -0.402 on 2/23. Temps rose above the La Nina threshold (-0.5 degs) on 2/22 and had been rising slowly since 2/12 when they were about -1.0 degs C. Then had been in the -1.0 deg range since at least Nov 2022.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs. A steady decline set in after that falling to -1.00 degs in Aug and Sept rising to -0.8 degs mid Oct then falling to -1.0 in Nov but then slowly rising to -0.75 degs in Jan 2023 and up to -0.5 degs above the La Nina threshold on 2/12.
Forecast (3/30) - Temps are neutral (0.0 degs) and are forecast rising to +1.15 degs in July and +2.0 degs in Nov and solidly into El Nino territory. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps are at neutral (0.0 degs) and are forecast rising to +0.90 degs in July and +1.60 degs in Nov. According to this version of the model we are building into ENSO neutral in Spring and into El Nino in Summer.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Mar 20, 2023 Plume depicts temps are +0.038 degs today and finally above the La nina threshold. Temps to rise steadily from here forward to +0.493 degs in May rising to +0.779 in July and holding there beyond. This is consistent with the previous run. This model suggests a transition to ENSO neutral if not weak El Nino. This model is in line with the CFS model.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (4/2) the Daily Index was negative at -19.40 and had been mostly negative the last 23 days. It fell to -17.44 on 2/22, the beginning of a change from which no return seems likely. It was up to +21.85 on 2/10 and +55.74 on 12/22 and were in the +20 range the previous 22 days.
The 30 day average was falling at -3.08 (lagging indicator driven by the Active Phase of the MJO) after falling to -0.52 on 3/22 previously falling to +4.18 on 11/27 and peaking at +21.57 (10/16) after supposedly peaking at +19.66 on 9/28. It was down to +6.89 on 7/29. It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was falling at +5.56 after peaking at +14.63 on 2/20, +15.61 on 10/25 and +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggests that the Active Phase occurring now is starting to drive the index down, hopefully with no upward trend in sight for at least a year.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


Powerlines Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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