Saturday, March 20, 2021
- Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 2.6 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 0.8 ft @ 17.6 secs from 182 degrees. Water temp 75.9 degs (Pearl Harbor 233).
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 7.3 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 5.9 ft @ 8.4 secs from 24 degrees. Water temp 75.6 degs.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.5 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 1.4 ft @ 13.6 secs from 175 degrees. Wind at the buoy was west at 8-10 kts. Water temperature 55.8 degs, 55.9 (Topanga 103), 54.9 degs (Long Beach 215), 56.8 (Del Mar 153). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 6.7 ft @ 13.3 secs from 296 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 3.0 ft @ 12.3 secs from 262 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 2.0 ft @ 12.5 secs from 275 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 3.8 ft @ 13.6 secs from 276 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 9.5 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 7.1 ft @ 13.0 secs from 298 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was northwest at 12-15 kts. Water temp 50.7 (029), 52.0 degs (SF Bar) and 52.3 degs (Santa Cruz).
See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Saturday (3/20) North and Central CA had waves at 4 ft overhead and lined up and mushed but still pretty powerful and warbled but not chopped. Protected breaks were head high or so and lined up and warbled and mushed. At Santa Cruz surf was head high and lined up and clean and soft. In Southern California/Ventura waves were chest to shoulder high and soft and warbled and junky but local winds was calm. Central Orange County had set waves at near head high and clean but with some surface ruffle and soft with decent form. South Orange County's best summertime breaks were waist high on the sets and clean but soft and unremarkable. North San Diego had sets at shoulder to head high and lined up and soft and fairly clean. Hawaii's North Shore had waves at waist high or so coming from the east-northeast with some sideshore warble intermixed. The South Shore was knee to thigh high on the rare set and clean. The East Shore was getting easterly windswell with waves head high and chopped from solid northeast winds.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Saturday (3/20) California was getting swell from a gale that rebuilt off North CA Thurs-Fri (3/19) producing up to 32 ft seas aimed southeast. Hawaii had no swell of interest. A weak weather system is to produce 20-22 ft seas in the Northwestern Gulf of Alaska Sun-Mon (3/22) perhaps offering some hope for the Islands and then possibly redeveloping in the same area on Fri (3/26) producing 24 ft seas aimed southeast. But otherwise the North Pacific is getting pretty sleepy. Down south a gale developed in the upper reaches of the South Central Pacific Sun-Mon (3/15) with up to 34 ft seas aimed north. And a stronger system formed in the deep Central South Pacific Sun-Mon (3/15) producing up to 43 ft seas aimed east-northeast. And another developed pushing under New Zealand Tues-Wed (3/19) with up to 35 ft seas aimed northeast but small in coverage. A weaker but broader one was following directly Thurs (3/18) producing 29-30 ft seas aimed northeast. And maybe another broad one is projected behind that on Sun-Wed (3/24) with 29-32 ft seas aimed northeast. And maybe another to follow in the upper reaches of the Southeast Pacific on Thurs-Fri (3/26) producing up to 35 ft seas aimed northeast. The Southern Hemi is waking up.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Saturday (3/20) the jet was split over Japan but consolidated just west of the dateline forming a weak trough there being fed by 110 kts winds offering a smidgeon of support for gale development. from there the jet split again with most energy in the northern branch pushing northeast up into the Northern Gulf offering nothing of interest. Over the next 72 hours the dateline trough is to build while lifting gently northeast with winds feeding it reaching 140 kts on Sun AM (3/21) repositioned over the Western Gulf offering decent support for gale development then starting to pinch off on Mon (3/22) though still being fed by a healthy flow of 120 kts winds with the apex of the trough 900 nmiles northwest of Hawaii offering some support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours starting late Tues (3/23) the trough is to become fully pinching off positioned 600 nmiles north of Hawaii no longer supporting gale formation. And 2 massive ridges are to be on either side of the trough supporting high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska and over the dateline. By Thurs (3/25) the jet is to be split and weak pushing off Japan and becoming even more split on the dateline with the northern branch tracking east over the Aleutian Islands and the southern branch tracking east on the 30N latitude line eventually pushing over Hawaii and into Baja Mexico with the remnants of the previous trough fully cut off circulating north of Hawaii. And thing are to become even more messy by Sat (3/27) with no clearly defined jetstream pattern supportive of even low pressure development indicated.
On Saturday (3/20) swell was hitting California from a gale previously in the Eastern Gulf (see East Gulf Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours one last tiny gale is forecast developing in the Western Gulf on Sun AM (3/21) producing 35 kt west winds with seas building from 23 ft at 40N 180W aimed east. In the evening 35+ kt northwest winds are to be lifting northeast over a tiny area with seas 25 ft at 42.5N 169W aimed east. The gale is to fall lift northeast on Mon AM (3/22) with 30-35 kt northwest winds over the Northwestern Gulf with seas 23 ft at 43N 168W aimed southeast. The gale is to fade in the evening with 30 kt northwest winds streaming off the East Aleutians and seas fading from 19-20 ft at 44N 165W aimed southeast. This system is to dissipate Tues AM (3/23) after that with seas fading from 20 ft at 45N 165W aimed south at Hawaii. Possibly some small swell to result for Hawaii. Something to monitor.
East Gulf Gale
On Tuesday AM (3/16) a gale was building in the Western Gulf with 35 kt west winds over a small area falling southeast and seas building from 20 ft at 43N 159W aimed east. In the evening fetch was fading from 30 kts in the Central Gulf with seas 20 ft at 40N 150.5W aimed southeast. On Wed AM (3/17) west winds were off North CA at 30 kts with seas 18 ft at 40N 142W aimed east-southeast. In the evening a new gale center was developing off North Oregon with northwest winds 35-40 kts and seas trying to rebuild at 21 ft at 45N 142W aimed east. On Thurs AM (3/18) northwest winds had built to 45+ kts over a decent sized area with seas 31 ft at 43N 139.5W aimed southeast. In the evening fetch is to be fading while tracking east at 35-40 kts just off Oregon with seas fading from 30 ft at 41.5N 133W aimed southeast. The gale is to be fading Fri AM (3/19) while lifting northeast with 30 kt west winds impacting Oregon and seas 22 ft at 42N 132W aimed southeast. This system is to be gone after that. Something to monitor.
North CA: Swell fading on Sat (3/20) from 8.1 ft @ 13 secs (10.5 ft). Residuals on Sun (3/21) fading from 5.0 ft @ 10 secs ( 5.0 ft). Swell Direction: 295 degrees moving to 305 degrees.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical weather system of interest were being monitored.
California Nearshore Forecast
- Sun (3/21) northwest winds are forecast at 20 kts all day for North and Central CA. No precip forecast with clearing high pressure in control.
- Mon (3/22) northwest winds 20-25 kts all day for North and Central CA except Cape Mendocino with 10 kt northwest winds. Light rain for Cape Mendocino mostly before noon.
- Tues (3/23) northwest winds continue at 20-25 kts for North and Central CA and up to 35 kts in the afternoon for Pt Arena.
- Wed (3/24) a summer like pressure gradient sets up with northwest winds forecast at 25+ kts for North CA north of Bodega Bay and 10 kts fort Central CA early holding all day.
- Thurs (3/25) northwest winds are forecast at 20-25 kts all day for North and Central CA. Light rain for Cape Mendocino mostly early.
- Fri (3/26) northwest winds are forecast at 25 kts for North CA and 10-15 kts nearshore for Central CA and 20 kts over outer waters early fading to 10 kts everywhere but Cape Mendocino later which stays northwest at 20 kts.
- Sat (3/27) light winds are forecast all day all locations.
Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 2 inches, 2-3 inches, 2 inches, and nil inches.
Freezing level to 4,000 ft on 3/20 then starting a steady warming trend with freezing level reaching 10,000 ft on 3/24, falling to 6,500 ft on 3/26 then rising to 11,000-12,000 ft 3/27 and holding there.
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!
On Saturday (3/20) swell was radiating north from a gale that previously formed in the northern reaches of the Central South Pacific (see Central South Pacific Gale North below).
Over the next 72 hours another swell is to be right behind associated with a gale the built just off the Ross Ice Shelf in the Central South Pacific (See Ross Ice Shelf Storm below). And yet another swell was behind that radiating northeast from a gale that previously tracked northeast from under New Zealand (see Small New Zealand Gale below).
And starting Sun AM (3/22) a gale is forecast building south of New Zealand producing a broad area of 35-40 kt southwest winds with seas building from 30 ft at 60S 173E aimed northeast. In the evening a more consolidated and broader area of 30-35 kt southwest winds are forecast pushing east-northeast with seas 29 ft at 55S 173W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (3/22) a secondary fetch is to be pushing under New Zealand with 40-45 kt southwest winds and seas building from 29-33 ft over a broad area with it's core at 61S 168E aimed east-northeast. In the evening fetch is to push east-northeast at 35-40 kts over a broad area with seas 29-33 ft at 57.5S 177.5E aimed east-northeast. On Tues AM (3/23) 30-40 kt southwest winds to persist over a broad area and seas 29-30 ft at 55S 170W aimed east-northeast. In the evening a small fetch of 40 kt southwest winds is to develop with seas 32 ft over a tiny area at 60S 161W with seas from previous fetch fading from 28 ft at 52S 153W aimed northeast. This system is to fade out from there. Something to monitor.
Central South Pacific Gale (North)
A small gale developed in the Central South Pacific on Sat PM (3/13) producing south winds at 45 kts over a small area aimed north with seas building from 22 ft at 46S 150W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (3/14) the gale built with south winds at 45 kts with 35 ft seas at 47S 142W aimed north. Fetch was fading in the evening from 35-40 kts lifting north with 30 ft seas at 44S 141W aimed north. Fetch was fading fast Mon AM (3/15) from 30 kts with residual seas fading from 27 ft at 41S 139W aimed north. This system was gone after that. Something to monitor and interesting given it's very northward position and northward track.
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (3/21) building to 1.3 ft @ 18 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell building through the day Mon (3/22) pushing 2.0 ft @ 16 secs late (3.0 ft). Swell fading some on Tues (3/23) from 2.0 ft @ 15 secs early (3.0 ft). Residuals on Wed (3/24) fading from 1.6 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 200 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (3/22) building to 1.3 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell peaking on Tues (3/23) at 1.4 ft @ 15-16 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell fading on Wed (3/24) from 1.2 ft @ 14-15 secs early (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 198 degrees
Ross Ice Shelf Storm
Of interest is a new storm that developed in the deep Central South Pacific on Sun AM (3/14) producing 45 kt southwest winds streaming off the Ross Ice Shelf with seas building from 32 ft at 67S 175W aimed northeast. On Sun PM the storm was building with 50+ kt southwest winds and seas 41 ft at 67.5S 167.5W and just off the summertime melted Ross Ice Shelf. On Mon AM (3/15) southwest winds were fading from 45 kts over a decent sized area with seas 42 ft at 64.5S 152.5W aimed east-northeast. In the evening the gale was all but gone with southwest winds fading from 30 kts and seas fading from 32 ft at 60.5S 143.5W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (3/22) building to 1.0 ft @ 22 secs late (2.0 ft). Swell building on Tues (3/23) to 1.7 ft @ 19 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell peaking on Wed (3/24) 1.9 ft @ 17-18 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (3/25) from 1.8 ft @ 16-17 secs early (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Fri (3/26) from 1.5 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 195 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (3/23) building from 1.3 ft @ 20 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell building on Wed (3/24) to 1.4 ft @ 18 secs (2.5 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (3/25) from 1.3 ft @ 16-17 secs (2.0 ft). Dribbles on Fri (3/26) fading from 1.1 ft @ 15 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 192 degrees
Small New Zealand Gale
Another gale developed under New Zealand Tues AM (3/16) producing 45 kt southwest winds over an infinitesimal sized area aimed northeast with seas building from 29 ft at 54S 166E. In the evening 45-50 kt southwest winds were lifting northeast over a tiny area with 35 ft seas at 50S 178E aimed northeast. The gale was fading Wed AM (3/17) with 40 kt south winds and seas fading from 34 ft at 48S 173W aimed northeast over a tiny area. Fetch was fading in the evening from 40+ kts from the south with seas 33 ft at 46S 168W aimed northeast. This system dissipated quickly after that on Thurs AM (3/18) with seas fading from 25 ft at 44S 163W aimed northeast. This is to be more a swell producer for Tahiti and Hawaii than the US mainland.
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Tues (3/23) building to 1.1 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell peaking on Wed (3/24) at 1.3 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.0 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (3/25) from 1.2 ft @ 14 secs early (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 197 degrees
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (3/26) at 1.0 ft @ 16-17 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell holding on Sat (3/27) at 1.0 ft @ 15-16 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 218 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (3/26) at 1.0 ft @ 16-17 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell holding on Sat (3/27) at 1.1 ft @ 15-16 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 217 degrees
Another New Zealand Gale
On Thurs AM (3/18) a broad gale was developing south of New Zealand producing 35 kt southwest winds and seas building from 30 ft at 59S 170E aimed east-northeast. In the evening 30-35 kt southwest winds were lifting northeast with seas 27 ft at 56S 177W aimed east-northeast. On Fri AM (3/19) fetch was fading from 30 kts with seas fading from 25 ft at 52.5N 160W aimed east-northeast. Maybe small swell to result for Hawaii and the US West Coast.
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (3/25) building to 1.3 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell peaking on Fri (3/26) at 1.5 ft @ 16 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading on Sat (3/27) from 1.1 ft @ 14 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 197 degrees
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (3/27) building to 1.0 ft @ 19 secs late (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 206 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours there's low odds of a small gale developing in the Northwestern Gulf on Fri AM (3/26) producing no swell producing 35 kt north winds and seas building to 22 ft at 45N 164W aimed south. Fetch is to hold in the evening while easing east with seas 24 ft at 45N 159W aimed south. On Sat AM (3/27) 40 kt north winds are to build while easing east producing 27 ft seas at 45.5N 153.5W aimed southeast. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 35 kts from the north with seas fading from 24 ft at 45N 151W aimed southeast. Something to monitor.
Beyond 72 hours the models are laughably suggesting development of a storm in the deep Southeast Pacific on Sat (3/27) with 55 kt southwest winds and 49 ft seas at 57.5S 121.5W. Will monitor.
Possible Kelvin Wave Pushing East
Summary - Warm subsurface water previously isolated to the far West Pacific is pushing east to a point south of California but the warm water pattern building at the surface off Ecuador is losing some ground as the Active Phase of the MJO there fades.
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).
Overview: A double dip La Nina was in control through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. El Nino was dead. A bit of a recovery occurred during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru and had not changed until March 2020. By April the cool pool pushed east and by May subsurface cool waters erupted off Ecuador, forming a well defined cool tongue that looked like the start of La Nina, holding into July 2020.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2020/2021 = 3.0/3.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: It is assumed the PDO has moved to the warm phase in 2014 and that a weak borderline El Nino from 2018 faded out in the Fall of 2019. A La Nina like ocean temperature pattern developed in the equatorial East Pacific in the summer of 2019, then faded and returned to a neutral if not weak warm status during the Winter of 2019-2020 only to return stronger in the Summer of 2020. We have been suspecting a turn towards a La Nina like atmospheric pattern to develop in the late Winter/early Spring of 2020. Our best hope is that moderation from the warm phase of the PDO might tamp down development of a full blown La Nina as we move into 2020. But at this time that does not appear likely. Given all that, for the 2020 there is decent probability for development of La Nina meaning a reduced number of storm days and storm intensity during the summer season, resulting in a below normal level of swell, with swell being below normal duration and period. And by the Fall and early Winter of 2020/21, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should fade even more, resulting in depressed swell production. This pattern is expected to hold through the Spring of 2021.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (3/19) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific turning moderate westerly over the Central Pacific and moderate westerly over the KWGA. Anomalies were modest east over the East equatorial Pacific then neutral over the Central Pacific then weak to moderate easterly over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, so they lag what is happening today by about 2 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (3/20) east anomalies were moderate over the KWGA. The forecast calls for east anomalies building to strong strength on the dateline and holding till the end of the model run on 3/27.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
- Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:
OLR Models: (3/19) A moderate Inactive MJO pattern was building over the West KWGA today. The statistic model projects the moderate Inactive MJO pushing east through the KWGA reaching the dateline on day 10 of the model run and the dissipating at day 15 of the model run while the Active Phase builds over the Maritime Continent. The dynamic model suggests the Inactive Phase building to moderate status over the Central KWGA on day 5, fading to weak status on day 10 and gone at day 15. The two model are in sync.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (3/20) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over the far West Indian Ocean today and is to track east into the Maritime Continent by day 15 of the model run and exceedingly weak. The dynamic model suggests the same thing but with the Active Phase pushing to the east Maritime Continent at the end of the model run and building to moderate status.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (3/15) This model depicts a modest Inactive MJO pattern (dry air) over the East Pacific and it is to track east while slowly losing strength moving over Central America on 3/30. A weak Active (wet) Phase is to develop over the West Pacific on 3/20 tracking east while slowly building and pushing into Central America on 4/14. A weak Inactive Phase (dry air) is to push east 3/30-4/24. And a weak Active Phase (wet air) is to push east from the West Pacific 4/9 through the end of the model run on 4/24 over the Central Pacific then.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (3/19) This model depicts an Inactive MJO signal over the KWGA today with mostly modest east anomalies in the KWGA. The forecast indicates the Inactive MJO pushing through the KWGA through 3/28 with east anomalies building in strength to moderate plus strength during that window. After that a neutral MJO is forecast with weak east anomalies filling the KWGA but slowly losing coverage at the end of the model run on 4/16 with west anomalies slowly building in from the west.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (3/20 - using the 4th/latest ensemble member): This model depicts a weak Inactive MJO over the KWGA today and it's to slowly and weakly track east through 4/8 with weak east anomalies holding mostly over the dateline during that timeframe but with weak west anomalies over the far west KWGA. An weak Active MJO signal is forecast to follow tracking east 4/5-5/7 producing moderate west anomalies filling the KWGA. This is to be the first real Active Phase in a year or more. A weak Inactive MJO is to follow 4/28-6/3 but with modest west anomalies still in control of the KWGA. A new Active Phase is to start building in the West on 6/2. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias is firmly in control over the dateline today with 4 contour lines reaching east to a point south of California. The forth contour line is to fade on 4/5. The 3rd contour line is to fade on 5/1. The second contour line is to fade 5/31. The remaining 1 is to be shifting east starting 4/21and losing coverage and no longer in the KWGA after 5/29. A single contour low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean today. The remaining contour line is to theoretically start shrinking in coverage from the west on 4/21 while tracking east to 175W and almost filling the KWGA at the end of the model run while building to 2 contour lines. This run of the model has significantly decreasing the strength of the Active Phase a month out and there by reducing the possibility of a developing El Nino. East anomalies that were previously solid in the Indian Ocean for over a year migrated east into the West Pacific on 10/1/20 and stabilized there, but are theoretically starting a slow fade while migrating east moving to the a point south of California by late-April as the Active Phase builds over the KWGA then. Theoretically the end of La Nina is near (starting on 4/15).
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (3/20) Today in the far West Pacific the 28 deg isotherm line was moving east to 175E after being steady at 165E for over a month. The 24 deg isotherm was pushing the whole way across the equatorial Pacific and building in coverage and depth as compared to weeks prior. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +4 deg C have moved east with the dividing line today at 145W versus 165W on 2/21. A broad cool pool was controlling the entire equatorial Pacific with anomalies in a broad pocket at -2C at 125W and west from there but losing coverage compared to days past. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 3/14 indicates a dramatic improvement with warm anomalies moving east subsurface to 120W indicative of a Kelvin Wave moving east. Negative anomalies in the East Pacific were the least negative at any time in months and getting shallower. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (3/14) A dramatic improvement was occurring with sea heights near neutral (0 to -5 cms) over the entire equatorial Pacific other than the area from the Galapagos to 120W where they were only -5 cms. A small area of positive anomalies was building over Ecuador pushing 1/2 way to the Galapagos and another near 150W on the equator. Negative anomalies were -5 cms along the coast of Peru and reaching north from Central America up to Baja then into South and North CA. Looking at the big picture, negative anomalies were forming a massive triangle from Cape Mendocino to the intersection of the dateline and equator then into Southern Chile. But it was much weaker than weeks and months past. And now with neutral to positive anomalies developing on the equator, the end seems near for La Nina.
Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (3/19) The latest images indicate a stream of warm water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador out to 120W. This is a new development. Weak cool water was west of there again on the equator out to the dateline but generally weak. Warmer temps were building along Chile up into Peru joining the main flow on the equator and also building down from Central America. The total cool flow looks much weaker than days past. Cool anomalies were streaming from Chile west-northwest to the dateline also feeding the main cool pool but far weaker and over a smaller area than even a few days ago. Overall this seems to indicate the collapse of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (3/19): Temps are warming in a small pocket between Ecuador and the Galapagos but with cooling temp just north of there. Otherwise a neutral temperature trend was occurring on the equator. Warming was occurring off Peru extending west to 100W. In all a warming trend that has been occurring for 2 weeks appears to be fading. This is likely attributable to the Active Phase of the MJO also fading over the East Pacific. But no large scale cooling trend were apparent.
Hi-res Overview: (3/19) A stream of warm water was pushing west off Ecuador to about 115W. Weak cool water was east of there to the dateline. A weak area of cool water was extending from off Chile tracking northwest to the equator out to the dateline and west to New Guinea but appears to be losing definition. A similar stream was migrating southwest from off Baja Mexico and pretty solid. A more stable pattern of warm anomalies was building on the equator reaching south off Chile and north to Mexico west to 120W on the equator. The remaining cool core of La Nina is pushing west from 120W over the dateline but warmer than day past. La Nina appears to be in retreat.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (3/20) Today's temps were falling slightly at +0.523 after peaking at +0.714 on 3/16. Temp previously peaked at +0.601 on 3/9 and that after a recent high of +0.100 on 2/1. Temps previously were -0.604 on 1/24. A previous peak of -0.595 occurred on 12/11. This area has been on a seesaw rising trend since early October. Temps were previously down to -2.138 on 8/13. The longterm trend has been on a slow but steady increase.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (3/20) Temps were falling some at -0.404 after peaking at -0.170 on 3/10, the highest in a year. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3, rising to to -0.982 on 1/21. The previous low before that was -0.733 on 9/10. Temps were on a steady decline since 7/25 then bottomed out in late October and have been on a slow increase since.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (3/16) No Update - Actuals per the model indicates temps bottomed out in early Nov at -1.25 degs then rose to -0.65 degs mid-Jan and then up to -0.25 degs in March. The forecast depicts temps holding in the -0.25 to -0.35 deg range into July and holding into early Nov. This seems more possible than previous runs, suggesting an end to La Nina from now forward conditions at worst.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Feb 20, 2021 Plume depicts temps are at -0.64 degs today, and are to rise to -0.37 in April and stabilizing in May at -0.26 maybe easing up to -0.24 degs in Oct. Most models are suggesting a moderate La Nina returning to Neutral in the late Spring of 2021.
See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator) (3/20): The daily index was rising at +5.79. The 30 day average was falling at -0.46 after peaking at +19.51 on 1/14. The 90 day average was falling some at +10.28 after peaking at +15.75 on 2/23 and clearly indicative of La Nina. This index is a lagging indicator.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): June -0.67, May -0.46, April 2020 -0.69, March -0.09, Feb +0.65, Jan +0.42, This index was steady positive Aug 2018 through Feb 2020, and now is steady negative, but only weakly so.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan 2019 -0.18, Feb -0.50 Mar -0.23, April +0.10, May +0.14, June -0.11, July +0.44, Aug -0.14, Sept +0.05, Oct -0.96, Nov -0.28, Dec +0.01, Jan 2020 -1.17, This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2018 +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131
Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ
Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.
Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table