Thursday, March 10, 2022
- Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor)/Buoy 239 (Lanai) NA/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt) NA: Seas were 1.8 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 0.6 ft @ 15.8 secs from 167 degrees. Water temp 77.7 degs (Barbers Pt), NA (Lani 239), 77.4 (Pearl Harbor 233).
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 3.6 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 2.6 ft @ 9.4 secs from 98 degrees. Water temp 77.2 degs.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 4.3 ft @ 7.1 secs with swell 3.7 ft @ 6.6 secs from 270 degrees. Wind northeast at 8-12 kts. Water temperature 58.1 degs, 58.5 (Topanga 103), 58.3 degs (Long Beach 215), 58.8 (Del Mar 153), 57.9 (Imperial Beach 155). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 7.7 ft @ 8.5 secs from 310 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.5 ft @ 6.4 secs from 257 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 2.2 ft @ 6.7 secs from 277 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 3.4 ft @ 7.8 secs from 277 degrees. Water temp 59.5 degs.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 8.5 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 7.2 ft @ 6.8 secs from 334 degrees. Wind at buoy 46012 was northwest at 18-21 kts. Water temp 50.5 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 50.7 (46026), 50.9 (SF Bar 142), and 52.3 (Santa Cruz 254).
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Thursday (3/10) North and Central CA had set waves at about waist to maybe chest high and mushed and lined up and somewhat clean but with north sideshore bump on it. Protected breaks were waist to chest high and lined up and somewhat closed out and lumped if not chopped. At Santa Cruz surf was maybe thigh high on the sets and clean and soft. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist high on the rare set and clean with decent form when they came and weak and gutless. Central Orange County had sets to about waist high and soft and heavily textured from modest south wind. South Orange County's best summertime breaks were flat and warbled. North San Diego had some sets in the thigh high range and clean and soft and weak. Hawaii's North Shore had sets at waist high or so and clean and lined up and soft. The South Shore was thigh high on the sets and clean but weak. The East Shore was near waist high and warbled from modest east trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Thursday (3/10) small locally generated northwest windswell was hitting exposed breaks in North and Central CA again with marginal conditions. Hawaii was seeing fading minimal swell from a small gale that developed over the North Dateline region Fri-Sat (3/5) generating a small area of 30 ft seas aimed briefly east. A weak gale pushed off Japan Sun-Wed (3/9) and did not make it intact to the dateline with seas at 27 ft aimed east. After that a small but respectable system is forecast developing north of Hawaii on Sat (3/12) pushing east up to British Columbia on Mon (3/14) with seas building to 45 ft aimed east. Maybe another weaker system is to follow the same track Wed-Thurs (3/17) producing 28 ft sea aimed east. And perhaps another system is to be developing on Thurs (3/17) while pushing east off Japan with seas to 25 ft.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Thursday (3/10) the jet was splitting over Japan but consolidated over the dateline with winds to nearly 180 kts pushing east to 155W, then splitting with the northern branch pushing towards British Columbia with a trough inland over the interior US West Coast. The beginnings of a trough were setting up in the Western Gulf offering some hope looking forward. Over the next 72 hours a semi legit trough is to start building in the Western Gulf on Sat (3/13) pushing east being fed by 150 kts winds moving to the Eastern Gulf off Vancouver Island on Sun (3/13) while winds fade offering some decent support for gale development. The jet is to remain split from Japan to nearly the dateline and then also east of 145W offering nothing. Beyond 72 hours starting Mon (3/14) the jet is to be weak and weakly split from Japan to a point north of Hawaii but consolidated with winds 130 kts pushing into North CA late Tues (3/15) offering hope for weather there holding into Thurs (3/17) At that time the jet is to reconsolidate in the west with a trough trying to build off Japan being fed by a tiny pocket of 150 kts winds and another trough building over the Western Gulf with the same wind velocity offering hope for gale development. But in general winds energy in the jet appears to be losing strength, a sign of the arrival of Spring.
On Thursday (3/10) the fading remnants of swell from a small gale that developed over the North Dateline region on Fri-Sat (3/5) was fading in Hawaii (see North Dateline Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours swell from a gale that developed off Japan is to be impacting Hawaii and bound for the US West Coast weakly (see West Pacific Gale below).
Of more interest starting Fri PM (3/11) is a gale that is to be developing just east of the dateline with 35-40 kt west winds and seas building. On Sat AM (3/12) the gale is to build to storm status with 50-55 kt northwest winds with seas 32 ft over a small area at 41N 169.25W aimed east. In the evening the storm is to be pushing east positioned 1200 nmiles north of Hawaii with 50-55 kt west winds and seas 44 ft at 43.5N 162W aimed due east. On Sun AM (3/13) the storm is fade to gale status continuing east with 45 kt west winds and seas 42 ft at 45.25N 155.75W aimed east. In the evening 40-45 kt west winds are to be off the US West Coast with 38 ft seas at 46N 150.25W aimed east. On Mon AM (3/14) 30-35 kt west winds are to be off Washington with 33 ft seas at 50.25N 145W aimed east. The gale is to dissipate in the evening off Vancouver Island. Something to monitor.
North Dateline Gale
On Fri PM (3/4) a gale was tracking northeast over the dateline with 40-45 kts northwest winds and seas building from 25 ft at 45N 170.5E aimed east. On Sat AM (3/5) the gale was moving over the Central Aleutians with west winds 45 kts and seas 30 ft at 47.25N 176.25E aimed east. In the evening the gale is to start moving over the Bering Sea with west winds 35 kts and seas 26 ft at 51N 178E aimed east. No meaningful swell is expected to result.
Oahu: Swell fading Thurs (3/10) from 2.7 ft @ 11 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 345 degrees
West Pacific Gale
A broad gale started building just east of Japan on Sun PM (3/6) with 40-45 kt northwest winds and seas building from 24 ft at 36.25N 150.25E aimed east. On Mon AM (3/7) northwest winds were 35-40 kts over a broad area with seas 26 ft at 37N 158.5E aimed east. In the evening fetch is to be fading while lifting north at 30-35 kts with seas 26 ft at 37N 164E aimed east. On Tues AM (3/8) west winds were fading from 30-35 kts with seas 26 ft at 40N 170E aimed east. In the evening west winds are to be fading from 30 kts from the west with seas fading from 24 ft at 42N 177E aimed east. This system is to be gone after that. Something to monitor.
Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Fri (3/11) building to 3.8 ft @ 14-15 secs later (5.5 ft). Swell fading Sat (3/12) from 3.5 ft @ 13-14 secs early (4.5 ft). Dribbles on Sun (3/13) fading from 3.1 ft @ 12-13 secs (3.5 ft).
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (3/13) building to 3.3 ft @ 15-16 (5.0 ft) and very inconsistent. Swell fading on Mon (3/14) from 4.0 ft @ 13-14 secs (5.5 ft). Dribbles on Tues (3/15) from 4.1 ft @ 12-13 secs early (5.0 ft). Swell Direction: 295 degrees
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical systems of interest are forecast.
California Nearshore Forecast
- Fri (3/11) northwest winds to be 10 kts for all of North and Central CA early fading to 5-10 kts in the afternoon.
- Sat (3/12) a weak local low is forecast off South Oregon with south winds forecast at 10 kts for Cape Mendocino early but northwest 5-10 kts for the remainder of North CA from Pt Reyes southward and 10 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon southwest winds are forecast at 20-25 kts for Cape Mendocino and 15 kts for North CA down to Bodega Bay and light for San Francisco turning northwest at 10-15 kts from Big Sur southward. Rain for Bodega Bay northward in the late afternoon to evening.
- Sun (3/13) in the morning west winds are forecast at 15 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest 5-10 kts for the remainder of North CA and down into Central CA but 15-20 kts from big Sur to Pt Conception. In the afternoon south winds are forecast at 10 kts for Cape Mendocino and light for the remainder of North CA down to Monterey Bay then 15-20 kts south to Pt Conception. Light rain for North CA early but hanging on for Cape Mendocino in the afternoon.
- Mon (3/14) a front is poised to be impacting Cape Mendocino with south winds 10-15 kts and northwest winds 5 kts down to the Golden Gate. Northwest winds are to be light for Central CA but 15 kts starting just south of Monterey Bay building to 25 kts for Pt Conception. In the afternoon south winds to be 20-25 kts for North CA down to Pt Arena and south at 5 kts to the Golden Gate then northwest 10-15 kts for Central CA. Rain developing for Bodega Bay northward in the afternoon through the evening.
- Tues (3/15) morning northwest winds are to be 5-10 kts for North and Central CA early but 15 kts south of Monterey Bay. In the afternoon high pressure starts building in earnest with northwest winds 15 kts for North CA and 20 kts for Central CA. Rain for all of North CA early. Maybe a dusting of snow for high elevations of Tahoe mid-AM.
- Wed (3/16) northwest winds are to be 15 kts for Pt Arena southward early and 20-25 kts south of Monterey Bay. In the afternoon no change is forecast.
- Thurs (3/17) northwest winds are to be 5-10 kts for North CA early and 15-20 kts from south of Monterey Bay southward. In the afternoon northwest winds building for North Ca at 10-15 kts and 15-20 kts for all of Central CA.
Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 2, 2, 0.5, and 0 inches.
Freezing level 8,500 ft thru 3/11 falling to 5,000 ft on 3/13 rising back to about 8,500 on 3/14 holding to 3/16, then fading to 7,000-8,000 ft beyond.
Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level (more here - scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!
No swell producing fetch has occurred of is forecast.
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours a tiny gale is forecast developing the Western Gulf on Wed AM (3/16) with 40 kt west winds and seas building from 30 ft over a small area at 44N 167.5W aimed east. In the evening 40 kt west winds are to be aimed east with 32 ft seas at 44.25N 161W aimed east. On Thurs AM (3/17) the gale is to be fading in the Central Gulf with 35-40 kts west winds and seas fading from 29 ft at 44.5N 155W aimed east. In the evening winds are to be fading from 35 kts with seas 26 ft at 45N 149.5W aimed east.
Also on Thurs AM (3/17) a broad gale is to be developing midway between Japan and the dateline producing 35 kt northwest winds with seas building from 23 ft at 37N 161E aimed east. In the evening winds to build to 35 kts over a broader area aimed east with a core to 50 kts with seas 25 ft at 35N 166E aimed east. Something to monitor.
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
La Nina Weakening - Kelvin Wave Still Pushing East - Warm Waters Building over Galapagos
Summary - Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21, beating last years volume, but now is quickly fading. A stronger than expected Active Phase of the MJO in Dec produced a Kelvin Wave that has reached the Galapagos. Water temps appear to be warming over the East Pacific, but still solidly in La Nina territory over the Central Pacific. A much hoped for Active Phase of the MJO (and westerly anomalies) has been delayed per the models (was early March/now late March). It seemed the the peak of La Nina was behind us. But a solid bout of east anomalies is now to hold to late-March per the CFS model with a 3rd year of La Nina projected. But that seems in doubt too. The outlook is uncertain.
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).
Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall /Winter 2021-2022 = 1.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen. A full double dip La Nina pattern took hold as we moved into November with this second La Nina dip being nearly as strong as the previous one. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern at that time and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter. But by later in Feb 2022 perhaps a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. But it will be too little too late. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct-Feb 2022, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by March 2022, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (3/9) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (3/10) moderate to strong east anomalies were filling the KWGA. The 7 day forecast calls for moderate to strong east anomalies holding in the core of the KWGA if not building in coverage and strength starting 3/12 through the end of the model run on 3/17. No west anomalies are forecast anywhere in the KWGA.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
- MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (3/9) A weak Inactive MJO signal was indicated today in the KWGA. The statistical model indicates a continuation of the same weak Inactive signal through day 10 of the model run then fading to neutral over the KWGA on day 15 of the model run with a weak Active signal over the Maritime Continent moving into the KWGA. The dynamic model projects a modest Inactive signal building in the KWGA on day 5 building to strong status on day 10 and then moderating some on day 15. The 2 models are somewhat divergent.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (3/10) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was exceedingly weak over the Central Indian Ocean and is forecast meandering not moving moving significantly and remaining incredibly weak over the next 15 days. The dynamic model suggests Active Phase retrograding to the West Indian Ocean while building in strength over the next 3 days then tracking east and over the Central Maritime Continent and weak on day 15 of the model run.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (3/9) A weak Inactive MJO signal (dry air) was filling the equatorial Pacific today. The forecast depicts the Inactive Phase (dry air) is to move steadily east and into Central America at the end of the model run on 4/18 and weak. A weak Active Phase is to set up in the West Pacific on 4/13 moving to the Central Pacific at the end of the model run.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (3/9) A extremely weak Active MJO signal was indicated over the west KWGA today but with moderate easterly anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast has the Active Phase weakly tracking east to the dateline on 3/30 but with east anomalies holding steadily from here through the end of the model run on 4/6. No westerly anomalies are forecast.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (3/10 - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Inactive Phase was all but gone moving east of the dateline but with moderate to strong east anomalies filling the KWGA. And the Active Phase of the MJO was pushing east over the KWGA to the dateline but producing no west anomalies. The forecast depicts the Active Phase holding over the KWGA in earnest through 3/18, fading some then building and fully pushing over the KWGA starting 3/28 and filling the KWGA through 4/20. East anomalies are to hold over the KWGA through 3/26 then pushing east. On 4/1 the Active Phase of the MJO is to finally push over and fill the KWGA with west anomalies rapidly taking over the entirety of the KWGA and holding even as the Active Phase fades on 4/20. A weak undefined MJO signal is to follow but with west anomalies filling most of the KWGA to the dateline through the end of the model run on 6/7. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 2 contour lines was centered east of the dateline at 150W with its western perimeter at 175E today and forecast holding then pushing east of the dateline at the end of the model run. A broad single contour low pressure bias is established centered over the Maritime Continent at 100E with it's leading edge at 150E filling half the KWGA and is forecast stalled there till 3/20, then moving slowly but steadily east reaching 175E at the end of the model run with a second contour building on 5/22. Today a solid east anomaly pattern that had been in control of KWGA since early July is supposedly taking it's last stand and will be gone before the end of March. A return to a normal MJO alternating pattern is setting up. And the low pressure bias is to start building reaching the dateline region in later April signaling the full demise of La Nina. That said, there is only one more Active MJO forecast for this winter, starting now meaning only one more shot at support for some sort of gale/swell production.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (3/10) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was backtracking to 165E. The 28 deg isotherm line was backtracking to 175E. The 24 deg isotherm was easing east to 95W. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +2 deg C were in a pocket in the far West Pacific down 150m reaching east to about 145W with a previous Kelvin Wave in the East Pacific at +2C down 65m centered at 100W pushing east. A small pocket of -1C cool anomalies were in between the two over a small area at 125W under the Pacific. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 3/4 indicates pocket of warm water retrograding in the West Pacific with it's leading edge at 165W with the first Kelvin Wave pushing east with 2-3 degs warm anomalies with its eastern edge at 90W with a pocket of cool anomalies at 145W and appearing to be expanding in coverage with another just off Ecuador and pushing to the surface at 85W while rapidly fading in coverage. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (3/4) Sea heights were neutral over the Equatorial Pacific. A string of positive anomaly pockets were north of the equator from just west of the Galapagos to the dateline. Otherwise positive anomalies were mostly locked west of the dateline but with a finger of 0 to -5 cms on the equator from the dateline to the Galapagos. A weak Kelvin Wave is pushing east. La Nina appears to be in sharp decline. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram La Nina subsurface cold temperatures are rapidly collapsing while being pushed east by the Kelvin Wave. Warm water was fast moving east with it's leading edge today at 90W. All this signals the demise of La Nina. A pocket of weak cool anomalies were developing at 145W today.
Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (3/9) The latest images depict a broad generic pool of cool water on the equator extending west from a bit west of the Galapagos out to 140W then weaker west of there before dissipating on the dateline. The classic La Nina pattern is in quick retreat. There are signs of warming along the coasts of Chile and a building along Ecuador out past the Galapagos to 110W. A shallow area of cool waters were along the immediate coast of Peru and retreating with pockets of warming developing. An area of warm water was holding just north of the equator across the entire North Pacific. Overall this indicates the late stages of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (3/9): Solid warming was occurring from Ecuador west on the equator to 140W and reaching 10 degrees north and south of the equator. No cooling was indicated.
Hi-res Overview: (3/9) The cold core of the La Nina cool pool is gone. Residual cool waters were still covering a large area starting well off Peru at 90W up to the equator and west to 160W and weaker out to the dateline. Cooler than normal waters were also south of that line down to 20S though losing coverage and intensity. Warmer than normal waters were aligned from 3N and above over the entire North Pacific. La Nina is solid but appears to be fading focused over the equatorial East Pacific.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (3/10) Today's temps continue upward at +0.001 and have been moving upwards since 2/20, and beating a previous high of -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3 and -1.954 on 12/18, the lowest this year so far. Previously temps dropped on 11/24 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. Last year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (3/10) Today's temps were just starting to rise slightly to -0.976 after falling to -1.012 on 3/8 after rising slightly to -0.505 on 2/2 and that after reaching a peak low of -1.096 on 1/3 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022.
Forecast (3/10) - Temps are to fall to -1.55 degs in early May then rising slightly to -1.40 degs in July and holding beyond. This model suggests we are at going to fall into a third year of La Nina. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps falling to -1.40 degs in May then rising to -1.15 degs in July and holding beyond. Still, neither of these forecasts are consistent with the IRI forecast (see IRI Consensus forecast below).
IRI Consensus Plume: The Feb 18, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.704 degs today and have bottomed out. They are to warm to -0.438 degrees in April, then rising to -0.026 degs in July and hovering near 0,0 degs after that. A return to ENSO neutral is expected this summer.
See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator):
Today (3/8) the daily index was positive at 7.90 after peaking at +27.33 on 1/31/22 and +46.71 on 12/26. The trend of late has been solidly positive. Previous other notable peaks were +30.98 on 11/26, +36.90 on 9/28, +27.75 on 9/13 and +37.86 on 7/15.
The 30 day average was rising some at +8.49 after falling to +0.83 on 1/27 then peaking at +13.07 on 12/31 (the highest in a year) after previously falling to +6.06 on 11/6 after peaking at +11.58 on 10/22. Before that it fell to -3.36 on 6/22, the lowest in a year. It peaked at +19.51 on 1/14.
The 90 day average was rising some at +8.14 today after previously peaking at +10.90 on 12/26, falling to +7.10 on 11/1. It previously peaking on 9/21 at +9.80 after falling to it's lowest point in a year on 6/9 at +1.06. The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 on 2/23 (clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131
Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ
Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.
Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table