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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Tuesday, March 8, 2022 1:59 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
2.3 - California & 3.1 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 3/7 thru Sun 3/13

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Gale Developing off Japan
Possible Gulf Storm Projected

 

BUOY ROUNDUP
Tuesday, March 8, 2022 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor)/Buoy 239 (Lanai) NA/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt) NA: Seas were 3.3 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 2.3 ft @ 9.7 secs from 296 degrees. Water temp 77.4 degs (Barbers Pt), NA (Lani 239), 76.5 (Pearl Harbor 233).
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 6.0 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 2.2 ft @ 15.0 secs from 319 degrees. Water temp 77.2 degs.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 1.9 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 0.8 ft @ 14.1 secs from 223 degrees. Wind northeast at 6-10 kts. Water temperature 58.1 degs, 57.2 (Topanga 103), 56.8 degs (Long Beach 215), 57.7 (Del Mar 153), 58.5 (Imperial Beach 155). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 1.9 ft @ 12.7 secs from 305 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 0.8 ft @ 13.7 secs from 252 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 0.6 ft @ 14.4 secs from 244 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.1 ft @ 13.9 secs from 262 degrees. Water temp 59.0 degs.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 5.5 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 3.7 ft @ 7.8 secs from 329 degrees. Wind at buoy 46012 was northwest at 6-8 kts. Water temp 53.2 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 50.7 (46026), 52.5 (SF Bar 142), and 52.0 (Santa Cruz 254).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (3/8) North and Central CA had set waves at about waist high and clean coming from the north and weak and mushed. Protected breaks were thigh to waist high and clean but soft and mushed. At Santa Cruz surf was barely thigh high on the rare sets and clean and soft. In Southern California/Ventura waves were flat to knee high and clean with good form when they came. Central Orange County had sets to waist high and soft and clean with decent form and some texture on top. South Orange County's best summertime breaks were flat and clean. North San Diego had some thigh high sets and clean and soft and weak. Hawaii's North Shore had sets at head high at top spots early and lined up but warbled and uneven with sideshore lump intermixed. The South Shore was thigh high on the sets and clean but weak. The East Shore was waist to near chest high and warbled from moderate northeast wind.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (3/8) small locally generated northwest windswell was hitting exposed breaks in North and Central CA with marginal conditions. Hawaii was seeing residual background swell mixed with northeast windswell and of no particular interest. Looking forward a small gale developed over the North Dateline region Fri-Sat (3/5) generating a small area of 30 ft seas aimed briefly east. And a weak gale is pushing off Japan Sun-Wed (3/9) but is to not make it to the dateline with seas to 27 ft aimed east. After that a solid system is forecast developing north of Hawaii on Sat (3/12) pushing east into British Columbia on Mon (3/14) with seas building to 46 ft aimed east.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (3/8) the jet was consolidated pushing firmly east off Japan on the 37N latitude line with a pocket of winds to 190 kts approaching the dateline then splitting just east of it at 170W and then splitting again at 160W with the first northern stream pushing up into the Bering Sea and the second pushing to Alaska then down the Canadian and US West Coasts. There was a small trough north of the wind pocket near the dateline offering limited support for gale development.Over the next 72 hours the wind pocket is to keep the jet consolidated while pushing well east at 150 kts reaching a point 1200 nmiles north of Hawaii late on Fri (3/11) forming a weak trough offering some support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours starting Sat (3/12) the jet is to be split over and off Japan but consolidated from near the dateline to a point north of Hawaii forming a weak trough offering some limited support for gale development with winds in the jet only 140 kts on Sun (3/13). The trough is to push east up to the California coast on Tues (3/15) being fed by 140 kts winds still offering some support for gale development. But back to the west the jet is to be split off Japan to about the dateline offering nothing.

Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (3/8) small swell from a gale that developed over the North Dateline region on Fri-Sat (3/5) was tracking towards Hawaii (see West Dateline Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours swell from a gale that developed over the North Dateline region is to weakly arrive in Hawaii (see North Dateline Gale below). Also swell from a gale that is developing off Japan is to be pushing east targeting primarily Hawaii (see West Pacific Gale below).

North Dateline Gale
On Fri PM (3/4) a gale was tracking northeast over the dateline with 40-45 kts northwest winds and seas building from 25 ft at 45N 170.5E aimed east. On Sat AM (3/5) the gale was moving over the Central Aleutians with west winds 45 kts and seas 30 ft at 47.25N 176.25E aimed east. In the evening the gale is to start moving over the Bering Sea with west winds 35 kts and seas 26 ft at 51N 178E aimed east. No meaningful swell is expected to result.

Oahu: Expect mixed swell arriving on Tues (3/8) with swell building to 4.8 ft @ 12-13 secs later (6.0 ft). Swell fading on Wed (3/9) from 4.1 ft @ 12-13 secs early (5.0 ft). Swell fading Thurs (3/10) from 2.7 ft @ 11 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 345 degrees

 

West Pacific Gale
A broad gale started building just east of Japan on Sun PM (3/6) with 40-45 kt northwest winds and seas building from 24 ft at 36.25N 150.25E aimed east. On Mon AM (3/7) northwest winds were 35-40 kts over a broad area with seas 26 ft at 37N 158.5E aimed east. In the evening fetch is to be fading while lifting north at 30-35 kts with seas 26 ft at 37N 164E aimed east. On Tues AM (3/8) west winds were fading from 30-35 kts with seas 26 ft at 40N 170E aimed east. In the evening west winds are to be fading from 30 kts from the west with seas fading from 24 ft at 42N 177E aimed east. This system is to be gone after that. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Rough data suggests swell arrival on Fri (3/11) building to 3.8 ft @ 14-15 secs later (5.5 ft). Swell fading Sat (3/12) from 3.5 ft @ 13-14 secs early (4.5 ft). Dribbles on Sun (3/13) fading from 3.1 ft @ 12-13 secs (3.5 ft).

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are forecast.

California Nearshore Forecast

  • Wed (3/9) northwest winds are to be 20-25 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA early building in the afternoon at 20-25 kts for North CA and Central CA.
  • Thurs (3/10) northwest winds are forecast at 20 kts for Cape Mendocino and 25 kts for the remainder of North CA and all of Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 10-15 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA.
  • Fri (3/11) northwest winds to be 1o kts for all of North and Central CA early fading to 5-10 kts in the afternoon.
  • Sat (3/12) south winds are forecast at 15 kts for Cape Mendocino early but northwest 5-10 kts for the remainder of North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon southwest winds are forecast at 15 kts for North CA north of Bodega Bay and light for San Francisco turning northwest 15 kts from Big Sur southward.
  • Sun (3/13) in the morning northwest winds are to be 5-10 kts for North CA and down into Central Ca but 15-20 kts near Pt Conception. In the afternoon south winds are forecast at 10 kts for Cape Mendocino and light for the remainder of North CA down into Central CA but northwest 15 kts for Pt Conception.
  • Mon (3/14) a front is to be impacting Cape Mendocino with south winds 20-25 kts and south winds 10-15 kts to the Golden Gate. Northwest winds are to be light for Central CA but up to 10-15 kts for Pt Conception. In the afternoon south winds to continue at 20 kts for North CA down to Bodega Bay and then northwest 10 kts for Central CA.
  • Tues (3/15) morning northwest winds are to be 10 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon high pressure starting building in earnest with northwest winds 15 kts for North Ca and 20 kts for Central CA.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 27, 29, 28, and 6 inches.

Freezing level 7,000 ft thru 3/9 rising to 9,000 ft on 3/10-311 falling some to 6,000 ft on 3/13 rising back to 8,500 on 3/14, then fading steadily down to 3,000 ft on 3/17.

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level (more here - scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!

 

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell producing fetch has occurred of is forecast.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours starting Fri PM (3/11) a gale is to be developing just east of the dateline with 40-45 kt west winds and seas building from 20 ft at 36N 178W aimed east. On Sat AM (3/12) the gale is to build to storm status with 55 kt northwest winds with seas 34 ft over a small area at 39.25N 169.25W aimed east. In the evening the storm is to be pushing east positioned 1200 nmiles north of Hawaii with 55 kt west winds and seas 44 ft at 41N 160.75W aimed due east. On Sun AM (3/13) the storm is to continue east with 50 kt west winds and seas 43 ft at 42.5N 152.5W aimed east. In the evening 40-45 kt northwest winds are to be off the US West Coast with 39 ft seas at 42.75N 146.5W aimed east. On Mon AM (3/14) 30-35 kt west winds are to be just off Oregon with 34 ft seas at 43.5N 140W aimed east. The gale is to fade beyond moving into Washington. Something to monitor.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

La Nina Weakening - Kelvin Wave Still Pushing East - Active Phase Delayed
Summary - Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21, beating last years volume, but now is quickly fading. A stronger than expected Active Phase of the MJO in Dec produced a Kelvin Wave that has almost reached the Galapagos. Water temps appear to be weakly warming over the East Pacific, though still solidly in La Nina territory. A much hoped for Active Phase of the MJO (and westerly anomalies) has been delayed per the models (was early March/now late March). It seemed the the peak of La Nina was behind us. But a solid bout of east anomalies is now forecast for early to mid-March per the CFS model with a 3rd year of La Nina projected.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.
And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall /Winter 2021-2022 = 1.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen. A full double dip La Nina pattern took hold as we moved into November with this second La Nina dip being nearly as strong as the previous one. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern at that time and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter. But by later in Feb 2022 perhaps a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. But it will be too little too late. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct-Feb 2022, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by March 2022, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (3/7) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate to strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and modest east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (3/7) moderate to strong east anomalies were filling the KWGA. The 7 day forecast calls for moderate to strong east anomalies holding in the core of the KWGA if not building in coverage starting 3/11 through the end of the model run on 3/15. No west anomalies are forecast anywhere in the KWGA.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (3/7) No MJO signal was indicated today in the KWGA. The statistical model indicates a neutral MJO signal forecast over the KWGA through day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model projects a modest Inactive signal in the KWGA on day 5 building to strong status on day 10 and then moderating some on day 15. So there 2 models are divergent. Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (3/8) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was exceedingly weak over the Central Indian Ocean and is forecast slowly moving to the far West Pacific remaining incredibly weak over the next 15 days. The dynamic model suggests Active Phase retrograding to the West Indian Ocean while building in strength over the next 4 days then tracking east and over the Central Maritime Continent and weak on day 15 of the model run.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (3/7) A neutral MJO signal (weak dry and wet air) was filling the equatorial Pacific today. The forecast depicts the Inactive Phase (dry air) is to move over the KWGA on 3/27 moving steadily east and into Central America at the end of the model run on 4/16 and weak. A weak Active Phase is to set up in the West Pacific at that time.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (3/7) No MJO signal was indicated over the KWGA today but with moderate easterly anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast has east anomalies building in coverage steadily from here forward to 3/21 as some form of the Inactive Phase of the MJO starting pushing across the KWGA through 3/25. Then east anomalies are to start fading and almost gone on 3/29 holding through the end of the model run on 4/4.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (3/8 - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Inactive Phase was fading fast and almost gone over the far Eastern KWGA with moderate to strong east anomalies filling the KWGA. And the Active Phase of the MJO was pushing east over the western KWGA but producing no west anomalies. The forecast depicts the Active Phased trying to build over the KWGA in earnest through 3/16, fading some then building and fully pushing over the KWGA on 4/1 but east anomalies are to hold over the KWGA through 3/28. On 4/1 the Active Phase of the MJO is to finally push over and fill the KWGA with west anomalies rapidly taking over the entirety of the KWGA and holding even as the Active Phase fades on 4/20. The Inactive Phase is to develop 4/14 in the West KWGA tracking east through the end of the model run on 6/5 but with weak west anomalies in control the whole time. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 2 contour lines was centered east of the dateline at 150W with its western perimeter at 175E today and forecast holding then pushing east of the dateline 4/14 and slowly easing east from there with the second contour line fading on 6/4. A broad single contour low pressure bias is established centered over the Maritime Continent at 100E with it's leading edge at 150E filling half the KWGA and is forecast stalled there till 3/29, then moving decidedly east reaching 175E on 5/3 and sliding east from there with a second contour building on 5/5. Today a solid east anomaly pattern that had been in control of KWGA since early July is supposedly taking it's last stand and will be gone by the end of March. A return to a normal MJO alternating pattern is setting up. And the low pressure bias is to start building reaching the dateline region in later April signaling the full demise of La Nina. That said, there is only one more Active MJO forecast for this winter, starting now meaning only one more shot at support for some sort of gale/swell production.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (3/7) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was easing east at 167E. The 28 deg isotherm line was creeping east at 177E. The 24 deg isotherm was easing east to 95W. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +2 deg C were in a pocket in the far West Pacific down 150m reaching east to about 142W with a previous Kelvin Wave in the East Pacific at +2C down 65m centered at 100W pushing east. A small pocket of -1C cool anomalies were in between the two over a small area at 125W under the Pacific. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 3/4 indicates pocket of warm water retrograding in the West Pacific with it's leading edge at 160W with the first Kelvin Wave pushing east with 2-3 degs warm anomalies with its eastern edge at 90W with a pocket of cool anomalies at 145W and another other just off Ecuador and pushing to the surface at 85W while rapidly fading in coverage. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (3/4) Sea heights were neutral over the Equatorial Pacific. A string of positive anomaly pockets were north of the equator from just west of the Galapagos to the dateline. Otherwise positive anomalies were mostly locked west of the dateline but with a finger of 0 to -5 cms on the equator from the dateline to the Galapagos. A weak Kelvin Wave is pushing east. La Nina appears to be in sharp decline. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram La Nina subsurface cold temperatures are rapidly collapsing while being pushed east by the Kelvin Wave. Warm water was fast moving east with it's leading edge today at 90W. All this signals the demise of La Nina. A pocket of weak cool anomalies were developing at 145W today.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (3/7) The latest images depict a broad generic pool of cool water on the equator extending west from a bit west of the Galapagos out to 140W then weaker west of there before dissipating on the dateline. The classic La Nina pattern is in quick retreat. There are signs of warming along the coasts of Chile and a building along Ecuador out past the Galapagos to 105W. A shallow area of cool waters were along the immediate coast of Peru and retreating. An area of warm water was holding just north of the equator across the entire North Pacific. Overall this indicates the late stages of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (3/7): Solid warming was occurring from Ecuador west on the equator to 130W. No cooling was indicated.
Hi-res Overview: (3/7) The cold core of the La Nina cool pool is gone. Residual cool waters were still covering a large area starting well off Peru at 90W up to the equator and west to 160W and weaker out to the dateline. Cooler than normal waters were also south of that line down to 20S though losing coverage and intensity. Warmer than normal waters were aligned from 3N and above over the entire North Pacific. La Nina is solid but appears to be fading focused over the equatorial East Pacific.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (3/8) Today's temps continue upward at -0.265 and have been moving upwards since 2/20, and beating a previous high of -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3 and -1.954 on 12/18, the lowest this year so far. Previously temps dropped on 11/24 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. Last year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(3/8) Today's temps were falling at -1.012 after rising slightly to -0.505 on 2/2 and that after reaching a peak low of -1.096 on 1/3 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022.
Forecast (3/5) - T
emps are to fall to -1.50 degs in early May then rising slightly to -1.30 degs in July and holding beyond. This model suggests we are at going to fall into a third year of La Nina. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps falling to -1.40 degs in May then rising to -1.10 degs in July and holding beyond. Still, neither of these forecasts are consistent with the IRI forecast (see IRI Consensus forecast below).
IRI Consensus Plume: The Feb 18, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.704 degs today and have bottomed out. They are to warm to -0.438 degrees in April, then rising to -0.026 degs in July and hovering near 0,0 degs after that. A return to ENSO neutral is expected this summer.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator):
Today (3/8) the daily index was positive at 16.47 after peaking at +27.33 on 1/31/22 and +46.71 on 12/26. The trend of late has been towards positive readings. Previous other notable peaks were +30.98 on 11/26, +36.90 on 9/28, +27.75 on 9/13 and +37.86 on 7/15.
The 30 day average was rising some at +8.29 after falling to +0.83 on 1/27 then peaking at +13.07 on 12/31 (the highest in a year) after previously falling to +6.06 on 11/6 after peaking at +11.58 on 10/22. Before that it fell to -3.36 on 6/22, the lowest in a year. It peaked at +19.51 on 1/14.
The 90 day average was rising some at +8.09 today after previously peaking at +10.90 on 12/26, falling to +7.10 on 11/1. It previously peaking on 9/21 at +9.80 after falling to it's lowest point in a year on 6/9 at +1.06. The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 on 2/23 (clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


Powerlines Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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