Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 5.4 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 3.6 ft @ 8.6 secs from 277 degrees. Water temp 77.0 (Barbers Pt), 75.7 (Pearl Harbor 233), 77.4 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were NA ft @ NA secs with swell NA ft @ NA secs from NA degrees. Water temp NA
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 9.2 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 5.2 ft @ 13.2 secs from 335 degrees. Water temp 76.6 degs
Buoy 46069 (S. Santa Rose Is): Seas were 3.3 ft @ 10.8 secs with swell 2.0 ft @ 10.6 secs from 287 degrees. Wind northwest at 16-18 kts. Water temperature 56.7 degs, 55.4 (Harvest 071), 56.8 (Topanga 103), 56.8 (Long Beach 215), 58.6 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 56.3 (Del Mar 153), 57.6 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 2.8 ft @ 9.8 secs from 291 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 1.1 ft @ 10.4 secs from 317 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 0.9 ft @ 11.7 secs from 242 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 0.8 ft @ 12.6 secs from 210 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 0.7 ft @ 12.6 secs from 214 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.0 ft @ 12.5 secs from 224 degrees. Water temperature 56.7 degrees.
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 6.0 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 4.3 ft @ 8.9 secs from 265 degrees. Wind south 18-21 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and SSE 18-24 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and ENE 4 kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 53.6 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 52.7 (San Francisco 46026), 52.5 (SF Bar 142), 53.4 (Half Moon Bay 1801583), 53.6 (Monterey Bay 46092) and 52.7 (Soquel Cove S).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Saturday (2/1) in North and Central CA waves were waist to maybe up to chest high on the rare peak and lined up if not closed out and a bit warbled and mushed from light south wind. Protected breaks were thigh to waist high and clean and soft. At Santa Cruz surf was waist high and weakly lined up and mushed but clean and soft. In Ventura County surf was flat and clean. Central Orange County had sets at thigh high and clean coming from the north breaking just off the beach and real clean with no wind early. South Orange County's best summertime breaks were flat to knee high and real clean and very weak. North San Diego had sets at knee high breaking just a bit off the beach and clean. Oahu's North Shore had sets at 1-2 ft overhead and somewhat lined up but pretty jumbled and warbled and mushed from onshore wind. The South Shore was flat to thigh high coming from the southwest and clean on the surface but with considerable warble intermixed. The East Shore was getting northwest windswell at chest to shoulder high and fairly clean from modest northwest wind early.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Saturday (2/1) California was getting no swell of interest other than minimal local windswell. Hawaii was getting small junky locally generated windswell originating from another local low that developed while lifting north of the Islands on Fri-Sat (2/1) producing 23 ft seas aimed south and 21 ft seas aimed east. This system is to builds some on Sun (2/2) 900 nmiles north of the ISlands producing up to 27 ft seas aimed mostly east but with sideband windswell radiating south. Otherwise virtually no meaningful swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast in the North Pacific. For Southern CA, two small southern hemi swells are pushing north from gales previously in the Southeast Pacific. But nothing else is charted after that for the SPac.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Saturday (2/1) the jetstream was consolidated pushing east off Japan on the 33N latitude line with winds to 160 kts reaching to a point 700 nmiles north of Hawaii then weakening some with a small bit of energy peeling off to the north up and over the Central Aleutians only to return falling south of Alaska joining the main flat off the US West Coast with the jet building to 170 kts pushing inland over Oregon making for weather there. No troughs of interest were indicated offering no meaningful support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours the first pulse of jetstream energy is to push inland over Oregon into Mon (2/3) then be gone. But wind energy is to be still consolidated tracking east off Japan at 160 kts weakly splitting on the dateline then reconsolidated north of Hawaii and down to 100 kts still holding together and trying to reorganize targeting California. Beyond 72 hours starting Tues (2/4) the jet to the west is to build to 200 kts off Japan reaching almost the dateline and then falling into a developing trough north of Hawaii offering some support for gale formation and building to 120 kts just off Central Ca and pushing onshore over Monterey Bay likely starting to make weather there. By Wed (2/5) winds to be 140 kts in the section of the jet off California pushing inland over San Francisco making for weather there with a weak trough out at 145W tracking east offering more weather potential. The jet is to continue pushing solidly onshore over all of California on Fri (2/17) continuing weather there. And the jet is to hold extending east of Japan to the dateline winds winds to 190 kts fueling the moisture machine. A trough is potentially to develop just west of the dateline in this flow on Sat (2/18) being fed by 180 kts winds offering potential for gale formation. In the east the trough is to be at 135W off California with 160 kts winds pushing inland over Central CA making for more weather there potentially. At least rain seems likely for all of California over the next week.

Surface Analysis
On Saturday (2/1) swell from a small gale that developed north of Hawaii was hitting there (see Another Local Hawaiian Gale below).

And that gale (see below) is to rebuild on Tues PM (2/4) with 40 kt east winds falling south with seas building to 25 ft at 34N 149W aimed east. On Wed AM (2/5) north to northeast winds to briefly build to 45 kts 700 nmiles north of the Islands and aimed directly at them with seas 29 ft at 32.5N 149.5W aimed southwest. The gale to dissipate after that. Possible additional swell for the Islands.

Oahu: For planning purposes expect swell arrival on Thurs (2/6) to 5.9 ft @ 13-14 secs (8.0 ft). Swell fading out on Fri (2/7) from 4.3 ft @ 12 secs early (5.0 ft). Swell Direction: 30-35 degrees

Another Local Hawaiian Gale
Another small low pressure system developed Thurs PM (1/30) just north of Kauai with north winds 35-40 kts and seas 22 ft at 29N 164W aimed southeast. On Fri AM (1/31) the gale was lifting northeast with northwest winds 35-40 kts 450 nmiles north of the Islands with seas 25 ft at 28N 158.5W aimed mostly east. In the evening the gale was lifting northeast with no fetch aimed south at the Islands or east at the US West Coast but 24 ft seas at 30N 153.5W aimed east at California. The gale is to undergo a period of reorganization while lifting north until Sat PM (2/1) when the gale is to be 900 nmiles north-northeast of the Islands producing east winds at 45 kts with seas 29 ft at 36N 153W aimed west and southwest with sideband energy possibly targeting Hawaii. East fetch is to be fading Sun AM (2/2) from 40 kts with seas 25 ft at 37N 151W aimed east. Fetch fading in the evening from 35 kts from the east with seas 24-25 ft at 37.5N 148W aimed east. Fetch fading after that. Possible north sideband windswell for the Islands.

Oahu: Swell fading Sat (2/1) from 5.1 ft @ 10-11 secs early (5.0-5.5 ft). Swell steady Sun (2/2) at 4.7 ft @ 11 secs (5.0 ft). Swell Direction: 320 moving to 355 degrees

Additional sideband swell possibly arriving in Oahu on Mon (2/3) building to 5.5 ft @ 13 secs early (7.0 ft). Swell steady on Tues (2/4) at 5.6 ft @ 13 secs (7.0-7.5 ft). Swell continues Wed (2/5) at 4.9 ft @ 12-13 secs (6.0 ft) and gets overrun by fresh energy beyond (see above).Swell Direction: 10 moving to 25 degrees

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Sun AM (2/2) northeast winds are forecast at 10-15 kts for Cape Mendocino early and southwest 15-20 kts for the rest of North CA and northwest 10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon southwest winds to take over at 10 kts for North CA and south 5-10 kts for Central CA. Rain focused on North CA from Santa Cruz northward through the day. Snow focused on Tahoe northward through the day and evening.
Mon AM (2/3) northeast winds are forecast at 10 kts for Cape Mendocino but southwest 15 kts for the rest of North CA and southwest 5-10 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northeast winds are forecast at 10 kts for North CA and southwest winds 10-15 kts for Central CA. Rain for North CA early building while falling south down to Monterey Bay in the evening. Snow for all of the North CA mountains early falling south to Tahoe later and heavy.
Tues AM (2/4) northeast winds are forecast at 15-20 kts for North CA early and south winds 15 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon north-northeast winds are to be sweeping down the the North Coast at 15-20 kts and southwest winds 20 kts for all of Central CA. Rain for all of North and Central CA early holding near Morro Bay into the evening. Heavy snow for Tahoe falling over all the Sierra through the day and evening. .
Wed AM (2/5) northwest winds are forecast at 15 kts for North CA early and south 10-15 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon south winds to be 10-15 kts for all of North and Central CA with low pressure redeveloping just offshore. Rain for North and Central CA early clearing from the north and gone for even Central CA overnight. Heavy snow for the Sierra early slowly fading in the afternoon but still present overnight.
Thurs AM (2/6) low pressure moves up to Central CA with east winds for Cape Mendocino and south winds 20 kts for the rest of North and Central CA. In the afternoon the low moves onshore with west winds 10 kts for North CA and southwest winds 15-20 kts for Central CA. Rain for all of North and Central CA early continuing through the day perhaps reaching south to Los Angeles then fading in the evening. Snow for the Sierra early building to heavy status through the day then moderating overnight.
Fri AM (2/7) additional weak low pressure sets up just off North CA with northwest winds 15+ kts for North CA and northwest winds 10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon the low moves onshore over San Francisco with northwest winds 10-15 kts for North CA and northwest winds 10-15 kts for Central CA. Rain for North CA and Southern CA early becoming focused over North CA in the afternoon. Steady moderate snow for the Sierra through the day and evening.
Sat AM (2/8) high pressure arrives with northwest winds 15-20 kts for North Ca and 15-20 kts for Central CA. Clearing shies and no precip forecast.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at a 133, 147, 87, and 89 inches. A little on Sat-Sun (2/1-2/2), then meaningful accumulations late Mon-Fri (2/7).

Snow Levels for Tahoe (focused on Palisades Tahoe): Freeze level building to 8,800 ft late on Sat (2/1) afternoon falling overnight to 7,000 ft then up again Sun afternoon to 8,200 ft falling to 7,000 ft overnight then dropping to 5,500 ft later on 2/3 only to rise again to 8,100 ft on Tues (2/4) falling to 6,500 ft 2/5-2/6 then finally falling to 4-5,000 ft 2/7 and beyond.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
A gale developed in the Southeast Pacific (see Southeast Pacific Gale below). Another developed right behind it (see Another Southeast Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no additional swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

Southeast Pacific Gale
On Sat AM (1/25) a gale developed over the Southeast Pacific producing 40 kt southwest winds and seas building from 21 ft at 63S 141W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch built to 45 kts aimed northeast with seas 31 ft at 62.25S 133.5W aimed northeast. On Sun (1/26) southwest winds were 40 kts with seas 30 ft at 59.25S 125W aimed east-northeast. In the evening fetch was fading while moving east of the Southern CA swell window.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (2/4) building to 1.1 ft @ 15-16 secs late (1.5 ft). Swell building on Wed (2/5) to 1.2 ft @ 14-15 secs later (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell fading Thurs (2/6) from 1.3 ft @ 13-14 secs 91.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 192 degrees

Another Southeast Pacific Gale
Another gale developed over the Southeast Pacific on Tues PM (1/28) with 45 kts southwest winds and seas 31 ft at 65.75S 142.5W aimed northeast. On Wed AM (1/29) southwest winds were 45 kts aimed well north and seas 34 ft at 64.5S 131W aimed northeast. In the evening south-southwest winds were 40 kts with seas 35 ft at 61.25S 122.5W aimed northeast. On Thurs AM (1/30) southwest winds were lifting north at 35 kts with seas 33 ft at 57.5S 120W aimed northeast. In the evening the gale is to track northeast with 30 kts winds and moving out of the Southern CA swell window with seas 27 ft at 52.5S 113.5W aimed northeast. The gale is to fade after that. Another possible southern hemi swell to result reaching up into Southern CA with luck.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (2/7) building to 1.4 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell peaks on Sat (2/8) at 1.5 ft @ 15-16 secs mid-day (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading Sun (2/9) from 1.4 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.0 ft). Dribbles Mon AM (2/10) fading from 1.3 ft @ 13-14 secs early (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 185 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Modoki La Nina in Control
MJO Pattern Now 'Unstuck'
9 downwelling warm water Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and 6 upwelling Kelvin Waves have traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific starting Feb 2024 and continue erupting over the East Equatorial Pacific. The atmosphere is in a weak La Nina mode focused on the dateline, but not expected to build or move much beyond.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected and continue building today.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but as of late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it take 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean is just now starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly into a La Nina pattern, it seems La Nina will not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025. And 2 months later Winter will be fading and any support for La Nina to build will be fading with it. Therefore, we can assume we are at best going to be in weak La Nina conditions as we get deep into the Winter of '24/'25. Conversely El Nino 23/24 faltered because of a persistent high pressure background state (in the Pacific) attributable to the PDO being in a long running cold state (which in turn mimics a modest La Nina background state). And there is no signs of that changing. The net result is that the atmosphere is stuck in a long running weak La Nina background state which in turn suppresses storm and swell development effectively setting up an atmosphere with no momentum towards either strong La Nina or strong El Nino. As a result the forecast for the coming winter season will reflect the atmospheres tendency to not actively support storm formation though not actively completely hindering it either.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (1/31) 5 day average winds were moderate to strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and weak east over the Central Pacific and moderate to strong east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (2/1) Today strong east anomalies were filling the KWGA and moderate west anomalies were over the entrance to the West Pacific. The forecast indicates east anomalies holding over the dateline at strong status to 2/10 with west anomalies steadily moving east into the far West Pacific 2/2 with the leading edge making it to 140E then stalling holding through 2/14 then building east to 155E at the end of the model run on 2/17. And east anomalies are to be fading over the dateline and nearly gone 2/13 and beyond.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (1/31) Currently a moderate Inactive MJO pattern (dry air) was fading over the dateline and the Active Phase (wet air) was moving from the Maritime Continent into the far West Pacific/KWGA. The statistic model depicts a moderate Active Phase (wet air) filling the KWGA on day 5 of the model while moving east on day 10 and fading then weak on the dateline on day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model depicts the Active Phase moving much slower reaching the dateline on day 15 of the model run and strong.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (2/1) - The models depict the Active Phase was modest over the Central Maritime Continent. The statistic model has it moving slowly east to the East Pacific at weak status. The dynamic model depicts the Active Phase approaching the Central West Pacific at modest strength 2 weeks out.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (2/1) This model depicts a strong Active Phase (wet air) over the West Pacific almost filling the KWGA. The forecast has to tracking east filling the KWGA through 2/21 then east of the KWGA and south of California 2/21-3/8. The Inactive Phase is to set up moving over the KWGA 2/26 through the end of the model run on 3/13.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (1/31) Today the Inactive Phase (contours) were all but gone over the KWGA but with strong east anomalies in control. Inactive Phase contours are to be gone beyond but with strong east anomalies in control till 2/12. West anomalies are strong over the Maritime Continent moving into the far West Pacific 2/1 reaching to 140E holding to 2/15 with Active contours moving into the KWGA 2/5 pushing east to 155E dissipating on 2/16. West anomalies are to retreat west on 2/19 moving back over the Maritime Continent. Weak east anomalies are to persist over the bulk of the KWGA beyond through the end of the model run on 2/28.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (2/1) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today strong east anomalies were filling the KWGA with the Inactive Phase over the West KWGA today tracking east through 2/9 with east anomalies holding at strong status through that timeframe. A weak Active Phase is to follow 2/3 through 3/5 but with east anomalies continue holding over the dateline at strong status to 2/16 then weakening from moderate strength to weak strength on 3/11 then gone on 3/24. West anomalies are forecast moving from the entrance to the West Pacific to 145E on 2/6 then to 150E on 2/20 then holding. After that a weak Inactive Phase is to develop but never even making to the KWGA with any strength through the end of the model run on 5/1 but with east anomalies dissipating over the dateline 3/25 and weak west anomalies setting up filling the KWGA beyond. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean (starting 4/28) with one contour and is to hold through the end of the model run though starting to ease into the West Pacific 4/12. The high pressure bias returned over the dateline 11/16 with 1 contour line with a second 12/7 and a third developed 1/18. The third is to fade 4/10 and the second 4/27. This suggests a stronger and later developing La Nina pattern than is normal developing. This is not as hoped for but not horrible.The CFS modes seems to always have an early lead on newly developing trends (if a little bit overhyped).

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (2/1) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was reaching east to 165E and retrograding 1 degree. The 28 deg isotherm line was easing east to 176E. The 24 degree isotherm was reaching east to Ecuador (previously 140W) and pretty thin at 140W. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +2 degs in the far West and East Pacific with a pocket of strongly cooler anomalies present in between down 100 meters centered at 120W at -4 degs extending from 100-155W filling the Central Pacific thermocline. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 1/28 indicates cold anomalies were filling the the thermocline from the 165W east to 90W at up to -5.0 degs below normal centered at 115W. The density and volume of that cold water at depth was fading. Warm anomalies were filling the area west of the dateline and building now pushing east to 170W. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (1/28) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 cms from the Ecuador west to 180W with -10 cms between the 115W to 165W and -15 cms building in one pocket at 135W-150W. It appears the cool pool is holding and westward displaced. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (1/28) the cool pool was fading in coverage mid-Jan but is now holding from just east of the dateline to just off Ecuador with a core at -1.5--2.0 degs below normal from 112W to 145W and steady the last 2 weeks. A La Nina pattern is in play with 6 pulses so far (the first showed in Feb). Warm water is limited west of the dateline and getting steadily warmer and building in coverage.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (1/31) The latest images depict a La Nina cool pool was filling the equatorial Pacific and strongest from 125W to 175W and now present in a thin stream running on the equator in the East Pacific. We are in La Nina, but not strongly and it looks very much like a Modoki version (westward displaced).
Hi-res 7 day Trend (1/31): Temps were warming over the Equatorial Pacific from the Galapagos to 120W now and near neutral. And the trend was neutral over the whole equatorial Pacific.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (2/1) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were rising some at -0.803 after falling to -0.962 (1/28) after holding for a week near -0.289 (-0.275 1/3-1/10). They peaked at +0.265 (11/22), starting the upward rise on 11/4-5 when anomalies were as low as any previous reading (near -1.4 degs), and hovered between -1.5 to -1.0 starting 9/22.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (2/1) Today's temps were rising slowly at -1.263 after peaking at -1.106 (1/18) and had been generally slowly rising after dropping to -1.429 (12/27). Previously anomalies were on a steady decline from -0.475 (11/22) and generally steady since 11/4, lower near -1.0 degs 9/21-10/28, and had been falling steadily in pulses since 6/30. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20 and but then rebuilt hovering near neutral 6/2 through 6/30.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were -0.9 week of 1/22 falling some from previous weeks. Previously temps were -0.6 (1/15), -0.7 (1/1 and 1/8), -1.1 (1/25) coldest so far, -0.8 (12/18),-0.6 (12/11), -0.3 (12/4 and 11/27), -0.1 (11/20), 0.0 (11/13), -0.3 (11/6), -0.2 (10/30), -0.5 (10/23), -0.3 (10/16), -0.5 degs (10/9), -0.3 (10/2), -0.2 degs (10/25), -0.5 degs (9/18 the first time solidly negative), -0.2 (9/11), -0.1 (9.4), -0.2 (8/28), 0.0 (8/21), -0.1 degrees (8/14) +0.0 (8/7) -0.2 degrees (7/31) and the first week negative in a year, +0.1 (week of 7/24), +0.2 (7/17), +0.3 (7/10 and 7/3), +0.4 ( 6/26) +0.3 (6/19) +0.0 (week of 6/12) +0.1 (6/5 & 5/29) +0.2 degs (5/15 and 5/22), +0.3 (5/8), +0.5 (5/1), +0.8 (4/24), +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data is -0.55 Sec, -0.25 Nov, -0.27 Oct., -0.26 Sept, -0.12 August, +0.05 July, +0.17 June, +0.23 May, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +1.52 Feb, +1.82 Jan 2024, +2.02 Dec (2023), +2.02 Nov, and +1.72 Oct (2023).
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.91 (OND), -0.82 (SON), -0.76 (ASO), -0.63 (JAS), -0.51 (JJA), -0.45 (MJJ), -0.26 (AMJ), +0.06 MAM, +0.50 FMA, +0.86 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.47 ft for NDJ 2023 (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.49 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb then down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and then +0.25 mid June falling to -0.15 degs in mid-Aug, -0.3 mid Sept and -0.35 mid-Oct and up to -0.2 in Nov then down to -0.7 in Dec and -0.75 in Jan. Temps continue to not fall anywhere near as fast or hard as this model forecasts.
Forecast (2/1/25) - Actual temps posted for Jan (and did the same as the month of Dec) where actuals were much warmer than projected. The forecast was -1.0 degs and actuals were -0.7 degs. Looking forward the forecast is for temps falling to -0.90 in mid-Feb before rebounding to -0.40 in April 2025 and at -0.05 in July and +0.15 in Oct. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same with a drop to -0.9 degs mid-Feb then rebounding as described above. In all it looks like we're moving into a weak La Nina.
IRI Consensus Plume: The January 20, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.612 (down from -0.435 degs last month) and is the 8th month below neutral since El Nino developed. Temps rise from here forward to above -0.381 degs in March (MAM). The Dynamic model suggest temps rising from here forward and near 0.0 on MJJ and the Statistic rising to -0.240 at the same time. In other words, we are at the peak of La Nina now. Both these projections are about like before but only suggest a bare minimal week La Nina.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (1/30/25) the Daily Index was positive at +25.21 and positive the last 17 days, negative the previous 18 days, but otherwise mostly positive before that.
The 30 day average was rising at +2.33 and has been falling the entire last 30 days, no longer in La Nina territory.
The 90 day average was rising slightly at +6.50 and retreating slightly from La Nina territory.
We are in ENSO neutral status moving towards La Nina.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling to -1.52 in March 2024, -2.12 April, -2.99 May, -3.16 in June, -2.99 July, -2.91 Aug and -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. In Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.