Tuesday, February 1, 2022
- Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor)/Buoy 239 (Lanai)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 3.8 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 3.1 ft @ 12.4 secs from 286 degrees. Water temp 77.0 degs (Barbers Pt), NA (Lani 239), 76.3 (Pearl Harbor 233).
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 5.0 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 3.4 ft @ 12.7 secs from 320 degrees. Water temp 76.6 degs.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.3 ft @ 12.8 secs with swell 2.2 ft @ 12.7 secs from 224 degrees. Wind variable 2-4 kts. Water temperature 58.5 degs, 58.3 (Topanga 103), 58.8 degs (Long Beach 215), 59.5 (Del Mar 153), 58.6 (Imperial Beach 155). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 6.9 ft @ 10.2 secs from 312 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.6 ft @ 15.7 secs from 249 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.3 ft @ 15.9 secs from 226 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.8 ft @ 15.7 secs from 263 degrees. Water temp 60.6 degs.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes - Returned to Service!): Seas were 14.9 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 11.6 ft @ 10.2 secs from 322 degrees. Wind at buoy 46012 was northwest at 21-25 kts. Water temp 52.9 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 54.0 (46026), 53.2 degs (SF Bar 142), and 54.0 (Santa Cruz 254).
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Tuesday (2/1) North and Central CA had set waves at head high to 1 ft overhead and lined up but somewhat warbled and shifty but holding decent form early with wind starting to blow. Protected breaks were 1-2 ft overhead and lined up bordering on closed out with northwest wind and warble evident. At Santa Cruz surf was waist high and lined up but soft and a bit lumpy with solid near offshore winds. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh to waist high and clean but soft and weak. Central Orange County had sets at waist to chest high and lined up but pretty warbled from south wind. South Orange County's best summertime breaks were thigh high and trashed from south wind. North San Diego was near flat and warbled from south wind and not rideable. Hawaii's North Shore had sets at 2 ft overhead and lined up and clean with good form. The South Shore was waist to chest high and lined up and clean. The East Shore was flat to knee high and lightly chopped from modest east trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Tuesday (2/1) California was getting locally generated northwest windswell. Hawaii was small swell from a generic gale that developed while tracking northeast to the North Dateline region Sat-Sun (1/30) with up to 38 ft seas aimed east. A second gale developed on the dateline Sun-Mon (1/31) producing 26 ft seas aimed well at Hawaii. A third is projected for the North Dateline region Tues-Wed (2/2) with up to 36 ft seas aimed east. And a fourth is projected on Thurs-Fri (2/4) with 37 ft seas aimed east. But all are to be small and quickly tracking hard northeast with only small swell likely even under the best of circumstances. Perhaps another one is to form on the dateline on Sun (2/6) with 34 ft seas tracking more to the east.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Tuesday (2/1) the jet was consolidated pushing firmly east off Japan on the 35N latitude line running east to about the dateline with winds 210 kts feeding a broad shallow trough developing on the dateline offering some support for gale development. East of there the jet split at 165W with the northern branch pushing northeast limping into West Alaska supporting nothing but high pressure east of the split point. Over the next 72 hours energy levels in the jet are to slowly fade to the 180-190 kts range between Japan and the dateline through Fri (2/4) but with no clearly defined troughs though some degree of support for gale development is likely given the solid wind speeds. The split point is to east east to 155W with winds in the northern branch pushing better into British Columbia. Beyond 72 hours starting Sat (2/5) winds to build again in the jet to 200 kts between Japan and the dateline with the split point steady at 160W but with no clearly defined troughs evolving but still offering some degrees of support for gale development. High pressure is to hold east of the split point. But starting on Mon (2/7) winds to start fading in the jet to 160 kts, possibly signaling a change ahead. The jet has been projected to unzip in sync with the fading of the Active Phase of the MJO and the arrival of the Inactive Phase. But that has been delayed till about 2/8. The main concern is whether even that will have any significant effect on the jetstream or whether a developing and eastward moving low pressure bias over the West Pacific will trump the negative affects of the INactive Phase of the MJO.
On Tuesday (2/1) residual swell from a gale previously over the North Dateline region was fading in California and buried in local windswell (see Another North Dateline Gale below). Swell from another gale previously over the North Dateline region was hitting Hawaii and bound for CA (see Second North Dateline Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours another small gale is forecast developing Tues AM (2/1) on the dateline with 50-55 kt west winds over a tiny area lifting northeast with seas building from 26 ft at 41.5N 178.5W aimed east. In the evening 45-50 kt winds to be lifting northeast fast with seas 35 ft over a tiny area at 45.75N 171.75W aimed east. On Wed AM (2/2) the gale is to be moving over the Central Aleutians with 35-45 kt west winds and seas 36 ft at 50.5N 172.25W aimed east. The gale is to be gone after that. Minimal swell is possible.
Also starting Wed PM (2/2) another small gale is forecast building just west of the dateline with 55 kt west winds over a tiny area and seas building from 27 ft at 35.5N 172E aimed east. The gale is to race east-northeast on Thurs AM (2/3) with 55 kt west winds and seas 37 ft at 38.5N 176W aimed east. In the evening the gale is lift northeast with 50 kt west winds and seas 35 ft at 42.5W 168.25W aimed east. On Fri AM (2/4) the gale is to be approaching the Eastern Aleutians with 45-50 kts west winds and seas 37 ft at 48.5N 161.5W aimed east. In the evening the gale is to fading over the East Aleutians with 35-40 kts west winds and seas 33 ft at 53.25N 154W aimed east. Something to monitor.
Another North Dateline Gale
On Tues AM (1/25) another small gale started building just west of the dateline with 45 kt northwest winds and seas building from 22 ft at 39.75N 167.5E aimed east. In the evening 50 kt northwest winds are to be just west of the dateline with 31 ft seas over a small area at 41.5N 170.5E aimed east. On Wed AM (1/26) the gale was lifting north while fading with 45 kt west winds over the North Dateline region with 31 ft seas at 43.75N 168.75E aimed east. This system was fading in the evening with 40-45 kt northwest winds and seas 28 ft at 44N 175E aimed east. Fetch was fading Thurs AM (1/27) from 30-35 kts with seas fading from 24 ft at 45N 173E aimed southeast. The gale is to be gone after that. Something to monitor.
North CA: Swell fading on Tues (2/1) from 2.5 ft @ 13-14 secs early (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 294 degrees
Second North Dateline Gale
On Sat PM (1/29) a small gale started developing northwest of Hawaii producing 40-45 kts west winds and seas building from 33 ft over a tiny area at 39.5N 168.5W aimed east. On Sun AM (1/30) the gale was lifting north fast with 45 kt southwest winds and seas building to 36 ft at 45.5N 166.75W aimed east. The fetch was pushing over the East Aleutians in the evening while fading from 30- 35 kts from the northwest producing 28 ft seas at 51N 167W aimed east. Fetch and seas dissipated from there.
Oahu: Residuals fading on Tues (2/1) from 2.8 ft @ 12 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell DIrection: 315 degrees
North CA: No meaningful swell forecast and whatever does arrive will be buried in local northwest windswell.
South Dateline Gale
A gale developed on Sun AM (1/30) generating a small fetch of west winds on the dateline from the northwest at 35 kts producing seas of 23 ft at 34N 180W aimed east at mostly Hawaii. In the evening fetch held while falling southeast with seas 25 ft at 32.5N 176W aimed east. On Mon AM (1/31) fetch was fading from 30-35 kts with seas 21 ft at 31N 170W aimed east. The gale was gone after that. Small swell likely to result for Hawaii.
Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Tues (2/1) afternoon building to 5.9 ft @ 14-15 secs (8.5 ft). Swell fading Wed AM (2/2) from 4.5 ft @ 12-13 secs (5.5 ft). Dribbles on Thurs AM (2/3) fading from 2.5 ft @ 11 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 325 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (1/4) building to 2.1 ft @ 14 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Dribbles fading on Sat (1/5) from 2.0 ft @ 12 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 280 degrees
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical systems of interest are forecast.
California Nearshore Forecast
- Wed (2/2) north winds are forecast at 30-35 kts for North CA centered at Pt Arena early and 20-25 kts off the Central CA coast (10-15 kts nearshore). In the afternoon northwest winds are expected at 25-30 kts for Cape Mendocino to Pt Arena and 15-20 kts for the remainder of North CA and all of Central CA (less nearshore).
- Thurs (2/3) north winds are forecast at 20-25 kts for Pt Arena northward early and 10 kts south of there holding all day.
- Fri (2/4) north winds to be 20 kts from Pt Arena northward and north-northeast 10 kts south of there holding all day.
- Sat (2/5) north winds to be 15 kts for Cape Mendocino and north to northeast 10 kts from Pt Arena southward including all of Central CA and holding all day.
- Sun (2/6) a light northeasterly flow is forecast for North and Central CA early turning north 5-10 kts in the afternoon mainly isolated to Pt Arena northward, otherwise northeast 5-10 kts.
- Mon (2/7) north winds are forecast at 5 kts early for all of North and Central CA early building to 10 kts later and up to 15 kts near Cape Mendocino.
- Tues (2/8) high pressure returns with north winds 20-25 kts off Cape Mendocino and northwest winds 10 kts south of Pt Arena early. in the afternoon north to northeast winds are forecast at 30 kts for Pt Arena northward and northeast 5-10 kts south of there to Pt Conception.
Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches.
Freezing level 3,000 ft today then rising to 8,000 ft on 2/2 building to 10,500 ft on 2/4 and unchanged beyond.
Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level (more here - scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!
No swell producing fetch has occurred of is forecast.
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours perhaps another gale is to develop on the dateline Sun AM (2/6) producing 50 kt west winds on the dateline and seas building from 26 ft at 39.5N 175.5E aimed east. In the evening 45 kt west winds are to be over the dateline lifting northeast with seas 30 ft at 43.25N 179.25W aimed east. Fetch is to be fading Mon AM (2/7) from 40 kts with seas 34 ft at 45N 173W aimed east. The gael to quickly fade from there. Something to monitor.
Maybe a secondary system to form in the Northwestern Gulf on Tues (2/8).
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
La Nina Evaporating - Kelvin Wave Pushing East
Summary - Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21, beating last years volume, but is quickly fading at the surface in the East Equatorial Pacific. A stronger than expected Active Phase of the MJO in Dec has produced a Kelvin Wave that is plodding east through the Central Pacific. Water temps appear to be warming over the entire East Pacific, though still in La nina territory for the moment. A return to a more normal cadence of Active and Inactive MJO phases is starting now. It seems the the peak of La Nina is behind us. But the atmosphere will take much time to respond.
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).
Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall /Winter 2021-2022 = 1.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen. A full double dip La Nina pattern took hold as we moved into November with this second La Nina dip being nearly as strong as the previous one. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern at that time and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter. But by later in Feb 2022 perhaps a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. But it will be too little too late. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct-Feb 2022, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by March 2022, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (1/31) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate to strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and modest east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (2/1) modest east anomalies were filling the KWGA. The 7 day forecast calls for east anomalies building in coverage and strength to moderate to strong status on 2/5 holding through the end of the model run on 2/8.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
- MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (1/31) No MJO signal was indicated today over the Pacific. The statistical model suggests no MJO signal till day 10 of the model run with the Active MJO trying to move over the far west KWGA from the Maritime Continent stalling over New Guinea and holding on day 15. The dynamic model projects a strong Inactive Phase building on day 5 over the KWGA holding on day 10 then fading some on day 15 while the Active Phase builds over the Maritime Continent.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (2/1) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was exceedingly weak over the Maritime Continent and is forecast holding position and strength unchanged for the next 15 days. The dynamic model suggests Active Phase retrograding to the Central Indian Ocean in 5 days and at modest strength then pushing east to the West Maritime Continent at day 15 of the model run,
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (2/1) A weak Active MJO signal (wet air) was depicted over the KWGA today. The forecast indicates the Active Phase (wet air) steadily moving east tracking into Central America on 2/26. The Inactive Phase (dry air) is to be building over the West Pacific in earnest starting 2/21 at moderate to strong strength filling the KWGA then tracking east moving to the East Pacific at the end of the model run on 3/13. A new weak Active Phase (wet air) is forecast starting to build over the far West Pacific at that time.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (1/31) No MJO signal was depicted today but with modest east anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast has east anomalies building in coverage and strength filling the KWGA at near strong status but with no coherent MJO signal peaking 2/8 through the end of the model run on 2/28.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (2/1 - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day): Today the Inactive Phase was starting to peak over the KWGA with east anomalies starting to fill the KWGA. The forecast has east anomalies building over the KWGA peaking near 2/15 on the dateline as the Inactive Phase pushes east and then east of the KWGA on 3/2 but with east anomalies holding till 3/13. On 2/4 a coherent Active Phase of the MJO is to start pushing east over the western KWGA filling it by 2/27 with west anomalies moving east from the Maritime Continent into the West KWGA on 2/15. The Active Phase is to hold over the KWGA through 4/6 with moderate west anomalies filling the KWGA starting 3/14 and holding. The Inactive Phase is to develop 3/22 in the west KWGA tracking east through the end of the model run on 4/31 but with weak west anomalies in control the whole time. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 1 contour line was centered a bit east of the dateline with its western perimeter at 170E today moving to the dateline by 3/27 and slowly easing east from there. A broad single contour low pressure bias is established centered over the Maritime Continent at 100E with it's leading edge at 135E and barely in the KWGA but is forecast starting to move east further into the KWGA to 170E on 3/21 filling 75% of the KWGA and building further east quicker to nearly the dateline at the end of the model run on 4/29 as a second contour builds. Today a solid east anomaly pattern that had been in control of KWGA since early July is gone. A return to a more normal MJO alternating pattern is developing. And the low pressure bias is to start building over the dateline region in early April signaling the full demise of La Nina. That said, there is only one more Active MJO forecast for this winter, in the late Feb/early March timeframe meaning only one more shot at some sort of gale and swell production.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (2/1) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was easing east to 174E. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 176W. The 24 deg isotherm was easing east to 125W and almost pushing to Ecuador. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +3 deg C were building with their leading edge moving east to about 125W and showing signs of drifting east more. Cool anomalies were fading at -1 degs C 75 meters down at 105W and tracking east. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 1/28 indicates a Kelvin Wave pushing east with 4-5 degs warm anomalies with its eastern edge at 125W with cool anomalies at -3 degs C 25 meters down and pushing to the surface at 90W. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (1/28) Sea heights were negative over the East equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to 125W at -5 cms and losing coverage quickly. -10 cm anomalies no longer were present. But positive anomalies were steady, not longer creeping east locked at 140W. It appears a Kelvin Wave is pushing east, but it could be stalled. La Nina is trying to hold on but appears to be getting significantly challenged by warmer water encroaching from the west. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram La Nina subsurface cold temperatures peaked in coverage in mid-Oct, then started rapidly collapsing while being pushed east. Warm water was fast moving east with it's leading edge today at 125W. It appears a Kelvin Wave is moving east, the first since last summer likely signaling the demise of La Nina.
Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (1/31) The latest images depict a broad stream of cool water on the equator extending west from just off Ecuador peaking between 100W to 120W peaking at 105W then weaker west of there to the dateline. The core of this pool is rapidly fading in intensity and coverage day by day. Its pretty amazing how quick the demise is occurring. The classic La Nina pattern is in quick retreat. There are signs of warming along the coasts of Chile and Peru. An area of warm water was holding just north of the equator across the entire North Pacific. Overall this indicates the demise of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (1/31): Significant warming was occurring from Ecuador west on the equator to 160W. No cooling was evident.
Hi-res Overview: (1/31) The magnitude of the core of the La Nina cool pool is fading quickly. But weaker residual cool waters were still covering a large area from Peru up to the equator and west to the dateline. Cooler than normal waters were also south of that line down to 20S though losing coverage and intensity. Warmer than normal waters were aligned from 3N and above over the entire North Pacific. La Nina is solid but appears to be fading focused over the equatorial East Pacific.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (2/1) Today's temps were rising to -1.242 after dropping to -1.421 on 1/29. Temps previously rose to -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3 and -1.954 on 12/18, the lowest this year so far. Previously temps rose to -1.432 on 11/29 and that after dropping on 11/24 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. Before that temps were toggling around neutral 6/13-8/5 except for one dip to -0.411 on 7/8. Prior to that temps peaked on 3/16 when they briefly hit +0.714 degs. Last year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (2/1) Today's temps were rising at -0.522 after reaching a peak low of -1.096 on 1/3 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (2/1) - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -0.3 degs through Aug down to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov and holding. The forecast indicates temps slowly toggling upwards to -0.70 degs in Feb then falling to -1.05 degs in May only to resettle at -0.80 degs in the July and beyond. This is not believable. This model suggests we are at or almost past the peak of La Nina temperatures this Winter. But there is no indication that El Nino will develop and if anything we'll fall into a weak steady state La Nina beyond. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests the same as the uncorrected version. Still, neither of these forecasts seems realistic (see IRI Consensus forecast below).
IRI Consensus Plume: The Jan 13, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.960 degs today and have bottomed out. They are to warm to -0.586 degrees in March, then rising to -0.011 degs in July and neutral after that. A return to ENSO neutral is expected this summer.
See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator):
Today (2/1) the daily index was positive at +21.66 after peaking at +46.71 on 12/26. The trend of late has been towards positive readings the past 10 days after trending negative the month before. Previous notable peaks were +30.98 on 11/26, +36.90 on 9/28, +27.75 on 9/13 and +37.86 on 7/15.
The 30 day average was rising at +3.41 after falling to +0.83 on 1/27 then peaking at +13.07 on 12/31 (the highest in a year) after previously falling to +6.06 on 11/6 after peaking at +11.58 on 10/22. Before that it fell to -3.36 on 6/22, the lowest in a year. It peaked at +19.51 on 1/14.
The 90 day average was rising at +9.37 today after previously peaking at +10.90 on 12/26, falling to +7.10 on 11/1. It previously peaking on 9/21 at +9.80 after falling to it's lowest point in a year on 6/9 at +1.06. The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 on 2/23 (clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131
Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ
Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.
Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table