Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 3.6 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 2.3 ft @ 13.1 secs from 305 degrees. Water temp 77.0 (Barbers Pt), 76.8 (Pearl Harbor 233), 77.5 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were NA ft @ NA secs with swell NA ft @ NA secs from NA degrees. Water temp NA
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 10.3 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 7.8 ft @ 13.3 secs from 343 degrees. Water temp 76.6 degs
Buoy 46069 (S. Santa Rose Is): Seas were 3.2 ft @ 15.9 secs with swell 2.1 ft @ 16.5 secs from 290 degrees. Wind northeast at 2-4 kts. Water temperature 55.9 degs, 55.6 (Harvest 071), 56.1 (Topanga 103), 56.3 (Long Beach 215), 57.4 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 55.6 (Del Mar 153), 57.4 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 2.8 ft @ 16.1 secs from 295 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 1.0 ft @ 16.8 secs from 271 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.1 ft @ 13.1 secs from 244 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 0.9 ft @ 13.2 secs from 260 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 0.9 ft @ 13.2 secs from 259 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 0.9 ft @ 16.8 secs from 260 degrees. Water temperature 58.1 degrees.
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 5.3 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 3.9 ft @ 15.7 secs from 290 degrees. Wind north 4-6 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and N 7-8 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and NNE 2 kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 55.0 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 53.4 (San Francisco 46026), 52.2 (SF Bar 142), 53.1 (Half Moon Bay 1801583), 52.9 (Monterey Bay 46092) and 53.1 (Soquel Cove S).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Friday (1/24) in North and Central CA waves were 1 ft overhead on the sets and super lined up if not closed out creaking all on the inside and clean with light offshore winds early. Protected breaks had sets at chest high on occasion and lined up if not closed out and clean. At Santa Cruz surf was thigh to waist high and lined up and soft and clean. In Ventura County surf was thigh high and lined up with good form when it came and clean with light offshore winds. Central Orange County had sets at knee to thigh high breaking nearly on the beach and closed out and clean with no wind. South Orange County's best summertime breaks were near flat and breaking just off the beach and clean. North San Diego had sets at knee to maybe thigh high and lined up and clean and very weak. Oahu's North Shore was getting new swell with waves 8 ft and lined up and clean at many breaks with decent form. The South Shore was near flat with thigh high sets and super clean early. The East Shore was getting north swell at 4 ft overhead and lined up and fairly clean early with no wind.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Friday (1/24) California was small swell from a small system that tracked east from the Kuril Islands Sat-Sun (1/19) with up to 29 ft seas continuing east Mon-Tues (1/21) into the Northwestern Gulf with 22-25 ft seas aimed east. Hawaii was getting swell from a local low that developed just 600 nmiles north of the Islands Wed-Thurs (1/23) producing up to 27 ft seas aimed south. After that things quiet down some but with the exception of another local low forming north of Hawaii on Tues-Wed (1/29) with 31 ft seas aimed south pushing 22 ft seas east towards the mainland. And possibly another local low is forecast almost impacting the Islands on Fri (1/31) producing 28 ft seas aimed south.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Friday (1/24) the jetstream was consolidated pushing east off Japan at 110-120 kts reaching a point north of Hawaii then splitting with the northern branch pushing up into Alaska over the East Aleutians with the southern branch weakly pushing over Baja. There was a weak trough north of Hawaii supporting low pressure development and another over the dateline not offering much. Over the next 72 hours more of the same is forecast with the dateline trough pushing east forming a more legitimate trough on Sat (1/25) but being fed by only 90-100 kts winds initially building to 170 kts on Sun (1/26) but getting somewhat pinched off then weakening into Tues (1/28) but still present north of Hawaii offering support for gale formation before dissipating on Wed (1/29). The split point is to ease east to 140W at that time, half way across the Gulf of Alaska. Back to the west the jet is to start building over Japan with winds to 190-200 kts reaching to the dateline perhaps offering hope though no troughs are forecast. Beyond 72 hours in the west the jet is to weaken again running flat east to a point north of Hawaii with winds 140 kts, splitting weakly there then reconsolidating just to the east with winds again 160 kts and poised to move onshore over North CA on Fri (1/31). A trough is to develop half way to the dateline in the west perhaps offering support for gale formation. And it seems that finally the impenetrable ridge over the US West Coast is to fade.

Surface Analysis
On Friday (1/24) swell from a gale that previously tracked east over the dateline was hitting California (see North Dateline Gale below). And swell from a local gale north of Hawaii was hitting there (see Local Hawaiian Low Pressure System below)

North Dateline Gale
And another small gale started developing off the South Kuril Islands Fri PM (1/17) with 35-40 kts northwest winds and seas 26 ft at 41.75N 157.25E aimed east. On Sat AM (1/18) northwest winds were 40-45 kts with seas 26 ft at 41.75N 162.5E aimed east. In the evening the gale tracked east with west winds holding at 40 kts with seas 29 ft at 42.25N 166E aimed east. On Sun AM (1/19) west winds were 35 kts approaching the dateline with seas 27 ft at 42N 173.5E aimed east. In the evening west winds held at 35 kts over the dateline with seas 27 ft at 42N 179.5E aimed east. Fetch held while moving east Mon AM (1/20) at 35 kts just east of the dateline with seas fading from 25 ft at 41N 175.25W aimed east. In the evening fetch moved into the Western Gulf at 30-35 kts from the northwest with seas 23 ft at 41.5N 169.75W aimed east. Fetch was fading while lifting northeast Tues AM (1/21) over the Northwestern Gulf at 30-35 kts from the northwest with seas 23 ft at 45N 169W aimed southeast. Fetch fading while drifting east in the evening and seas 20 ft up at 45N 162W aimed southeast. Fetch gone after that.

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (1/24) building to 2.8 ft @ 15 secs mid-day (4.0 ft). Swell fading Sat (1/25) and buried in locally generated northwest windswell. Swell Direction: 295 degrees

Local Hawaiian Low Pressure System
On Wed AM (1/22) a low pressure system is to be developing just 600 nmiles north of Kauai generating north winds at 30 kts with seas building. In the evening the low is to build to gale status producing north winds at 45 kts and seas building to 26 ft at 31.25N 157.75W aimed south at the Islands. The gale was fading Thurs AM (1/23) producing north winds at 35+ kts and seas fading from 23 ft at 33N 161W aimed south. Residual fetch fading in the evening from 30 kts with seas fading from 20 ft at 30.5N 162.5W aimed southeast at the Islands.

Oahu: Swell holding on Fri (1/24) at 7.1 ft @ 12-13 secs (8.5 ft). Dribbles fading Sat (1/25) from 5.2 ft @ 11 secs early (5.5 ft). Swell Direction: 330 moving to 340 degrees

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Sat AM (1/24) north winds are forecast at 30 kts for all of North CA but a bit off the coast and northwest 15 kts for Central CA early and 20 kts off the coast. In the afternoon the gradient is to move off the coast some with north winds 30 kts for Cape Mendocino and northeast 5 kts for the rest of North CA and west 5 kts for Central CA. Light rain possible for Southern CA in the evening. Light snow possible for Tahoe mid-morning the Sierra building over most of the Sierra in the evening.
Sun AM (1/25) northeast winds to be 5-10 kts for North CA but north winds 25 kts well off the coast and northeast winds 5 kts down to Monterey Bay and south 5-10 kts south of there. In the afternoon northeast winds to be 5 kts for North and Central CA and southwest 10 kts for Southern CA. Rain for Central and Southern CA all day. Light snow for the Sierra and building over the Southern Sierra late.
Mon AM (1/26) the pressure gradient is to be gone with north winds 10 kts for North Ca and 5 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 5-10 kts for North CA and Central CA. Rain for Southern CA fading in the afternoon. Snow fading for the Southern Sierra in the afternoon.
Tues AM (1/27) northwest winds to be 5 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 5 kts for North CA and northwest 10 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast.
Wed AM (1/28) northwest winds to be 10 kts for North CA early and 10 kts for Central CA and 15 kts south of Monterey Bay. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest 15 kts south of there over the rest of North CA and all of Central CA.
Thurs AM (1/29)northwest winds to be 5-10 kts for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon a front is to be off Cape Mendocino with south winds 5-10 kts there and northwest 10 kts for the rest of North CA and 15 kts south of Monterey Bay.
Fri AM (1/30) the front fades out with south winds 5 kts for North CA and northwest 5 kts for Central CA. Light rain down to the Golden Gate mid-AM.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at a 12, 10, 11, and 3 inches. A little on Sat (1/25) and most on Sat (2/1).

Snow Levels for Tahoe (focused on Palisades Tahoe): Freeze level falling to 3,000 ft 1/25-1/26. Temps building to 6,500 ft on 1/27 and then to 10,500 ft 1/29 then falling to 5,000 ft 1/30 dropping to 3,00-4,000 ft beyond. The models are now hinting at a change of pattern a week or so out.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell is in the water and no swell producing fetch is occurring. .

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours a small gale is forecast developing 900 nmiles north of Hawaii on Mon PM (1/27) with 30-35 kt north winds and seas building. On Tues AM (1/28) north winds to build in coverage at 35 kts with 21 ft seas at 37N 156W aimed south. In the evening the gale is to lift north with 45+ kts north winds and seas 24 ft at 37N 154.75W aimed south. Fetch holds position Wed AM (1/29) wit north winds 45-50 kts and seas 31 ft at 41/25N 155.75W aimed south and 40-45 kts northwest winds and 26-28 ft seas aimed east at California. The gael is to track east in the evening with northwest winds 30-40 kts and seas 26 ft at 40.75N 153.25W aimed south at Hawaii and 23-24 ft seas at 38N 150W aimed at California. The gale to dissipate after that. Something to monitor.

Perhaps some form of small low pressure system is to be developing Thurs PM (1/30) north of Kauai with north winds 45 kts and seas building. On Fri AM (1/31) north winds to be 40 kts 250 nmiles north of Kauai with seas 29 ft at 26N 162W targeting Kauai directly. Something to monitor.

Modoki La Nina in Control
MJO Pattern Now 'Unstuck'
9 downwelling warm water Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and 6 upwelling Kelvin Waves have traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific starting Feb 2024 and continue erupting over the East Equatorial Pacific. The atmosphere is in a weak La Nina mode focused on the dateline, but not expected to build or move much beyond.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected and continue building today.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but as of late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it take 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean is just now starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly into a La Nina pattern, it seems La Nina will not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025. And 2 months later Winter will be fading and any support for La Nina to build will be fading with it. Therefore, we can assume we are at best going to be in weak La Nina conditions as we get deep into the Winter of '24/'25. Conversely El Nino 23/24 faltered because of a persistent high pressure background state (in the Pacific) attributable to the PDO being in a long running cold state (which in turn mimics a modest La Nina background state). And there is no signs of that changing. The net result is that the atmosphere is stuck in a long running weak La Nina background state which in turn suppresses storm and swell development effectively setting up an atmosphere with no momentum towards either strong La Nina or strong El Nino. As a result the forecast for the coming winter season will reflect the atmospheres tendency to not actively support storm formation though not actively completely hindering it either.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (1/23) 5 day average winds were moderate to strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were weak west over the East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (1/24) Today strong east anomalies were filling the KWGA and modest west anomalies isolated over the Maritime Continent. The forecast indicates a continuation of the same through 2/5 when west anomalies weaken some over the Maritime Continent while east anomalies hold at strong status over the dateline though smaller in coverage and shrinking through the end of the model run on 2/9. It looks like a possible weak repeat of December is setting up for late January into early Feb, with the Active Phase over the Maritime Continent feeding strong energy into the jetstream allowing it to cross the West Pacific. This might be a good pattern longer term.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (1/23) Currently a strong Inactive MJO pattern (dry air) was over the West KWGA. The statistic model depicts a strong Inactive Phase (dry air) filling the KWGA on day 5 of the model continuing on day 10 while easing east over the dateline and then east of the KWGA on day 15 of the model run as a strong Active Phase of the MJO builds over the Maritime Continent on day 5 then starts moving over the KWGA on day 10 filling it on day 15. The dynamic model depicts the same thing but with the Active Phase far weaker on day 10 then corrupt on day 15.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (1/24) - The models depicts the Active Phase was moderate to strong over the East Indian Ocean. The statistic model has it moving slowly east to the East Maritime Continent somewhere between very weak and moderate strength. The dynamic model depicts it moving to the East Maritime Continent and weak 2 weeks out.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (1/24) This model depicts a strong Inactive MJO pattern (dry air) over the East Pacific and forecast moving slowly east into the Atlantic on 2/3. A modest Active Phase (wet air) was developing over the KWGA today then tracking east filling the KWGA through 2/13 then east of the KWGA and south of California 2/5-2/23. Another Inactive Phase is to set up moving over the KWGA 2/23 through the end of the model run on 3/5.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (1/23) Today the Inactive Phase was filling the KWGA with strong east anomalies in control. The Inactive Phase is to track east and filling the KWGA through 2/3 with strong east anomalies in control then fading to modest status 2/7 holding through the end of the model run on 2/20. West anomalies are to be building over the Maritime Continent reaching strong status 1/21 and holding through 2/5 then at moderate status through then end of the model run on 2/20 remaining mostly isolated to the far West KWGA 2/2 and beyond. On Active Phase contours are forecast entering the West Pacific.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (1/24) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today strong east anomalies were filling the KWGA with the Inactive Phase over the West KWGA today tracking east through 2/7 with east anomalies holding at strong status through that time frame. A weak Active Phase is to follow 2/1 through 3/21 with weak east anomalies starting to fill the KWGA starting 2/26. A weak Inactive MJO pattern is to follow 3/10 through the end of the model run on 4/23 with weak east anomalies filling the KWGA if not the entire Pacific. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean (starting 4/28) with one contour and is to hold through the end of the model run through starting to ease into the West Pacific 4/15. The high pressure bias returned over the dateline 11/16 with 1 contour line with a second 12/7 and a third developing 1/18 and forecast holding to 3/25 then fading. The second contour is to fade out 4/18. This suggests a stronger and later developing La Nina pattern than is normal developing. This is not as hoped for but also not in line with any other model. Regardless, the CFS modes seems to always have an early lead on newly developing trends (if a little bit overhyped).

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (1/24) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm was gone, previously at 162E. The 29 degree isotherm was reaching east to 167E and unchanged. The 28 deg isotherm line was easing east to 179E. The 24 degree isotherm was reaching east to Ecuador (previously 140W) and a little bit thicker. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +2 degs in the far West and East Pacific with a pocket of strongly cooler anomalies present in between down 125 meters centered at 140W at -5 degs extending from 100-160W filling the Central Pacific thermocline. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 1/18 indicates cold anomalies were filling the the thermocline from the 160W east to 90W at up to -5.0 degs below normal centered at 135W. The density and volume of that cold water at depth was fading. Warm anomalies were filling the area west of the dateline and building now pushing east to 160W. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (1/18) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 cms from the Ecuador west to 175W with -10 cms between the 110W to 160W and -15 cms fading in one pocket at 155W. It appears the cool pool is fading and westward displaced. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (1/18) the cool pool is fading in coverage fast compared to 2 weeks ago but still filling the area from just east of the dateline to just off Ecuador with a core at -1.5--2.0 degs below normal from 120W to 142W. A La Nina pattern is in play with 6 pulses so far (the first showed in Feb). Warm water is limited west of the dateline and getting steadily warmer and building in coverage.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (1/23) The latest images depict a La Nina cool pool was filling the equatorial Pacific from 1250 to 160E and strongest from 125W to 180W but not present in the far East or West Pacific. We are in La Nina, but not strongly and it looks very much like a Modoki version (westward displaced).
Hi-res 7 day Trend (1/23): A cooling trend was in control of the Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to 160W. No surprise as an Inactive MJO moves east over the East Equatorial Pacific today.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/24) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were falling some at -0.507 after holding for a week near -0.289 (-0.275 1/3-1/10). They peaked at +0.265 (11/22), starting the upward rise on 11/4-5 when anomalies were as low as any previous reading (near -1.4 degs), and hovered between -1.5 to -1.0 starting 9/22.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/24) Today's temps were falling at -1.429 after peaking at -1.106 91/18) and had been generally slowly rising after dropping to -1.429 (12/27). Previously anomalies were on a steady decline from -0.475 (11/22) and generally steady since 11/4, lower near -1.0 degs 9/21-10/28, and had been falling steadily in pulses since 6/30. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20 and but then rebuilt hovering near neutral 6/2 through 6/30.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were -0.6 week of 1/15 and rising slightly from previous weeks. Previously temps were -0.7 (1/1 and 1/8), -1.1 (1/25) coldest so far, -0.8 (12/18),-0.6 (12/11), -0.3 (12/4 and 11/27), -0.1 (11/20), 0.0 (11/13), -0.3 (11/6), -0.2 (10/30), -0.5 (10/23), -0.3 (10/16), -0.5 degs (10/9), -0.3 (10/2), -0.2 degs (10/25), -0.5 degs (9/18 the first time solidly negative), -0.2 (9/11), -0.1 (9.4), -0.2 (8/28), 0.0 (8/21), -0.1 degrees (8/14) +0.0 (8/7) -0.2 degrees (7/31) and the first week negative in a year, +0.1 (week of 7/24), +0.2 (7/17), +0.3 (7/10 and 7/3), +0.4 ( 6/26) +0.3 (6/19) +0.0 (week of 6/12) +0.1 (6/5 & 5/29) +0.2 degs (5/15 and 5/22), +0.3 (5/8), +0.5 (5/1), +0.8 (4/24), +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data is -0.55 Sec, -0.25 Nov, -0.27 Oct., -0.26 Sept, -0.12 August, +0.05 July, +0.17 June, +0.23 May, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +1.52 Feb, +1.82 Jan 2024, +2.02 Dec (2023), +2.02 Nov, and +1.72 Oct (2023).
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.91 (OND), -0.82 (SON), -0.76 (ASO), -0.63 (JAS), -0.51 (JJA), -0.45 (MJJ), -0.26 (AMJ), +0.06 MAM, +0.50 FMA, +0.86 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.47 ft for NDJ 2023 (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.49 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb then down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and then +0.25 mid June falling to -0.15 degs in mid-Aug, -0.3 mid Sept and -0.35 mid-Oct and up to -0.2.0 in Nov then down to -0.7 in Dec and -0.75 in Jan. Temps continue to not fall anywhere near as fast or hard as this model forecasts.
Forecast (1/24/25) - Actual temps are now posted for Jan (and did the same as the month of Dec) where actuals were much warmer than projected. The forecast was -1.0 degs and actuals were -0.7 degs. Looking forward the forecast is for temps falling to -0.90 in mid-Feb before rebounding to -0.50 in April 2025 and at -0.20 in Aug and beyond. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same with a drop to -0.9 degs mid-Feb then rebounding as described above. In all it looks like we're moving into a weak La Nina.
IRI Consensus Plume: The January 20, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.612 (down from -0.435 degs last month) and is the 8th month below neutral since El Nino developed. Temps rise from here forward to above -0.381 degs in March (MAM). The Dynamic model suggest temps rising from here forward and near 0.0 on MJJ and the Statistic rising to -0.240 at the saem time. In other words, we are at the peak of La Nina now. Both these projections are about like before but only suggest a bare minimal week La Nina.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (1/22/25 - NO UPDATE) the Daily Index was positive at +10.60 and positive the last 7 days, negative the previous 18 days, but otherwise mostly positive before that.
The 30 day average was rising at -0.39 and has been falling the entire last 30 day, no longer in La Nina territory.
The 90 day average was steady at +5.65 and retreating slightly from La Nina territory.
We are in ENSO neutral status moving towards La Nina.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling to -1.52 in March 2024, -2.12 April, -2.99 May, -3.16 in June, -2.99 July, -2.91 Aug and -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. In Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.