Tuesday, November 21, 2017
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 11.4 ft @ 11.8 secs with swell 8.7 ft @ 11.8 secs from 355 degrees.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.0 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 1.4 ft @ 13.7 secs from 232 degrees. Wind at the buoy was north at 2 kts. Water temperature 64.4 degs. At Ventura (Buoy 111) swell was 1.2 ft @ 11.4 secs from 261 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.3 ft @ 12.6 secs from 248 degrees. At Camp Pendleton (043) swell was 0.9 ft @ 15.4 secs from 226 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.2 ft @ 14.7 secs from 240 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 4.7 ft @ 12.0 secs with swell 3.6 ft @ 12.0 secs from 307 degrees. Wind at the buoy was north at 4-6 kts. Water temp 58.6 degs.
Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Tuesday (11/21) in North and Central CA a new small pulse of Gulf swell was producing waves at head and clean with light offshore winds early. Protected breaks were waist high and clean and weak. At Santa Cruz surf was waist to maybe chest high on the sets and clean but a little wonky from tide early. In Southern California up north surf was near flat and clean with light wind early. In North Orange Co surf was maybe waist high coming from the north and clean breaking on the beach early. In South Orange Country best breaks were flat to waist high and clean and weak. In San Diego surf was knee to thigh high and clean and weak. Hawaii's North Shore was getting north windswell at 6-8 ft and a bit warbled from north-northeast wind at exposed breaks. The South Shore was flat to knee high and clean. The East Shore was getting north-northeast windswell at 3 ft overhead and chopped from north-northeast wind.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Tuesday (11/21) another gale was falling south through the Gulf Mon-Wed (11/22) with up to 27 ft seas aimed south initially at Hawaii then turning somewhat southeast towards CA. And another is forecast falling southeast Fri-Sat (11/25) with up to 36 ft seas targeting the Pacific Northwest down into California. A teaser gale is to follow pushing southeast from the North Dateline Sun-Tues (11/28) with 35 ft seas initially. And a far stronger system is on the charts for Mon-Tues (11/28) with up to 51 ft seas over the North Dateline region aimed east. An improvement in the jetstream and storm track seems possible.
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Tuesday AM (11/21) the jetstream was pushing off North Japan with winds to 125 kts reaching just a little ways off the coast then splitting with the northern branch ridging firmly northeast up over the Aleutians on the dateline then falling hard south over Western Alaska and into the Gulf of Alaska forming yet another backdoor trough reaching well south into the Gulf bottoming out 900 nmiles northeast of Hawaii and being fed by 140 kt winds offering decent support for gale development in lower levels of the atmosphere there. The northern branch of the jet then pushed northeast from there pushing inland over Washington and British Columbia. The southern branch was very weak pushing southeast over the dateline moving over Hawaii then merging with the northern branch pushing into the Pacific Northwest. Over the next 72 hours the backdoor trough is to almost start pinching off and fading early Wed (11/22) and by Thursday no longer offering support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours yet another trough is to develop while falling southeast on Fri (11/24) being fed by north winds at 110 kts offering some support for gale development while tracking east through the Gulf while slowly fading pushing inland over British Columbia later Sun (11/26). Of interest starting Fri (11/24) off Japan the jet is to start getting more energetic with 160 kt winds consolidated building to 190 kts on Sat (11/25) with the split point moving east to the dateline then starting to form a trough in the Western Gulf Mon (11/27) being fed by 160 kts winds offering some support for gale development. Unfortunately winds in the jet are to be fading fast from there into Tues (11/28) (at 140 kts in the Western Gulf) but still consolidated offering some support for low pressure development. No obvious split is indicated off Japan but it seems likely it will redevelop.
On Tuesday (11/21) swell from a backdoor gale was fading in Hawaii and California (see Another Backdoor Gale below). And another backdoor gale swell was developing while the gale was pushing south through the Gulf targeting mainly Hawaii (see One More Backdoor Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours yet another system is forecast moving from the East Bering Sea into the Northern Gulf on Thurs PM (11/23) with 50+ kt northwest winds and seas building from 33 ft at 53N 157W. Fri AM (11/24) 45 kt northwest winds are to be pushing southeast into the Northern Gulf with seas building to 35 ft at 50N 155W (308 degs NCal). Fetch is to fall southeast in the evening and fade from 35-40 kts with 31 ft seas at 48N 150W (307 degs NCal). Fetch is to fade from 35+ kts from the northwest on Sat AM (11/25) with seas fading from 28 ft over a decent sized area at 47N 150W aimed southeast (300 degs NCal). In the evening 35 kt northwest fetch is to be well off the NCal coast with 27 ft seas at 41N 147W aimed southeast at the Central CA coast. The front is to be off the NCal coast Sun AM (11/26) with west winds 30-35 kts and seas 20-22 ft at 39N 140W. Something to monitor.
Another Backdoor Gale
Another backdoor gale developed in the Western Gulf on Thurs AM (11/16) with 30 kt north winds and seas building. In the evening north winds to build to 35 kts falling into the Central Gulf with seas building to 22 ft at 47N 157W. Fri AM (11/17) north fetch continued at 35 kts taking aim mainly at Hawaii with 23 ft seas at falling south at 43N 157W aimed well at Hawaii with sideband fetch at California. Fetch faded some in the evening from the northeast at 30 kts with 22 ft seas fading at 38N 159W targeting only Hawaii. A small area of 30 kt north-northeast winds continued falling south Sat AM (11/18) positioned 900 nmiles north of Hawaii producing 20 ft seas at 35N 160W. After that the low is to dissipate with barely 30 kt north winds 600 nmiles north of Hawaii in the evening with seas fading from 18 ft at 31N 160W. Swell is possible mainly for Hawaii with limited sideband energy from California.
Hawaii: Residuals continue Tues AM (11/21) at 7.3 ft @ 11 secs (8.0 ft) and slowly fading. Still some energy is expected on Wed AM (11/22) at 5.4 ft @ 10 secs (5.5 ft). Swell Direction: 355-005 degrees
North CA: Swell fading Tues (11/21) from 2.2 ft @ 11 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 300-310 degrees
One More Backdoor Gale
Yet another backdoor gale developed in the Northwest Gulf on Sun PM (11/19) producing a broader area of 35 kt northwest winds south of the Eastern Aleutians with seas building to 20 ft at 52N 157W. Fetch fell southeast Mon AM (11/20) building to 40 kt from the north over a moderate sized area with seas building to 24 ft over a decent sized area at 51N 158W. In the evening 35-40 kt north winds were falling hard south over a modest area with seas 25 ft in the Northern Gulf at 45N 157W aimed southeast and south Targeting mainly Hawaii. Fetch continued falling south Tues AM (11/21) at 30-35 kts over a modest sized area and a little bit more cohesive aimed south and southeast with 25 ft seas at 40N 157W targeting Hawaii well with a second pocket of seas at 26 ft at 48N 152 targeting the US West Coast better. Northwest fetch is to continue falling south-southeast in the evening at 35-40 kts aimed southeast with seas 27 ft at 39N 153W targeting both Hawaii and the US West Coast. Wed AM (11/22) fetch is to fade from barely 30 kts from the north-northwest targeting mid-way between the US West Coast and Hawaii with seas fading from 23 ft at 35N 150W. This system is to be gone after that.
Hawaii: For planning purposes expect swell arrival on Wed PM (11/21) peaking Thurs (11/23) sunrise at 9.8 ft @ 14-15 secs (14 ft) holding decently through the day. Swell fading Fri (11/24) from 7.8 ft @ 13 secs (10 ft). Residuals on Sat (11/25) fading from 6.2 ft @ 11 secs (6.5 ft). Swell Direction: 005-015 degrees
North CA: For planning purposes expect windswell from the front associated with this gale to arrive Wed (11/22) at 4.5-5.0 ft @ 10-11 secs (5.0 ft) from 255 degrees. Core sideband swell hits Thurs (11/23) at sunrise at 4.1 ft @ 13-14 secs (5.0-5.5 ft) holding through the day. Residuals on Fri (11/24) 4.0 ft @ 10 secs (4.0 ft) and on Sat (11/25) fading from 4.0 ft @ 10 secs (4.0 ft) from 270 degrees. Swell Direction: 305 degrees
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical systems of interest were being monitored.
California Nearshore Forecast
On Tuesday (11/21) high pressure was hanging on over and off the Pt Conception area ridging into Central CA with a broad gale in the Gulf and a front from it 400 nmiles off the Central CA coast aligned south to north and the leading edge touching the CA-Oregon border but getting shunted north by the high along the CA coast. South winds were modeled at 15+ kts for Pt Arena northward and up to 25+ kts for Cape Mendocino but south at only 10 kts down to the Golden Gate and calm south of there. Rain limited to Cape Mendocino early and easing south but not making it to even Pt Arena in the evening. Dry for the rest of the state. Wednesday (11/22) more of the same is forecast with the front mainly north of the state and south winds 10-15 kts from Pt Arena northward with light winds for the bulk of the state. Rain limited to Cape Mendocino. Thursday (11/23) weak high pressure is to take control with light north winds building in the afternoon to 15 kts for Monterey Bay south to Pt Conception. Light rain possible for all of North CA. Friday (11/24) north winds are forecast at 15 kts in pockets from the Golden Gate southward to Pt Conception but light elsewhere. Saturday (11/25) a local low is to spin up off the North Coast with 10 kt southeast winds early for North CA turning south to 25 kts mid-day from Pt Arena northward and south 15 kts down to Big Sur. Rain for Pt Arena northward as the front impacts the coast there. Sunday (11/26) the front is to dissipate early with light winds and light rain early down to Pt Conception. But another local low is to follow with the front impacting the North coast in the afternoon with south winds 15-20 kts and rain pushing south from Cape Mendocino mid morning to San Francisco after dark. Monday (11/27) high pressure takes control ridging into North CA early with light winds there but north winds 15-20 kts from Pt Reyes down over the Channel Islands. Rain fading for Cape Mendocino. Tues (11/28) high pressure tracks north with north winds 20 kts from Cape Mendocino southward early turning northeast and fading to 10 kts in the afternoon.
On Tuesday (11/21) no swell producing fetch was occurring.
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours on Sat AM (11/25) a primer gale is to building off North Japan with 40 kt west winds and seas developing. In the evening 45-50 kt west winds are to be mid-way to the dateline with a tiny area of 32 ft seas at 46N 162E. Sun AM (11/26) winds to build to 50+ kts over the North Dateline Area west of the dateline aimed mostly east with 37 ft seas at 48N 171E. A new fetch is to split off to the southeast from from the original fetch building in the Western Gulf at 45-50 kts from the west with seas building from 29 ft at 44N 173W and seas from the original fetch at 35 ft at 50N 177E. On Mon AM (11/27) the fetch is to fall southeast and fade from 45 kts from the northwest with seas 36 ft at 42N 164W aimed at the US West Coast. Fetch is to dissipate in the evening with seas 27 ft @ 38N 158W aimed east.
A far stronger system is forecast developing behind that getting traction on an already roughed up ocean surface. On Mon PM (11/27) a broad gale is to be generating 45-50 kt northwest winds on the dateline with 28-30 ft seas setting up at 46N 175E. On Tues AM (11/28) 60+ kt west winds are forecast over the North Dateline region aimed southeast with 47 ft seas building at 50N 179E. In the evening fetch is to be falling southeast and fading from 55 kts with seas 52 ft at 48N 174W. Something to monitor but hardly believable at this early date.
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather system nor fetch is forecast.
More details to follow...
La Nina Solid - Cool Pool Stable
The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).
Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration but then in July east anomalies started building in the KWGA and have not stopped, with cold water upwelling over the the Nino1.2 and 3.4 areas, indicative of La Nina. So it appears now a double dip La Nina is setting up and is to continue through the Winter and Spring of 2017-2018.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast:
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of Mon (11/20) 5 day average winds were from the east over the entire equatorial Pacific but weaker in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area. Anomalies were light east over the East Pacific but moderate easterly from 155W-180W then weak east in the Central KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (11/21) Weak east anomalies were modeled over the core of the KWGA. Weak east anomalies are to hold in the KWGA perhaps building a little more the last day of the run on 11/28. The Inactive Phase of the MJO appears to weakening.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:
OLR Models: As of 11/20 a very weak Active/Wet MJO pattern was in control of the equatorial far West Pacific. The statistical model depicts the Active/Wet Phase holding weakly through the end of the model run 15 days out. The dynamic model depicts a dead neutral MJO pattern holding for the next 5 days then the Inactive Phase building on the dateline with the Active/Wet Phase moving into the West Pacific 15 days out.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (11/21) The ECMF model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO very weak over the far West Pacific and is to build in strength and then start pushing east into the West Pacific. The GEFS model suggests much the same but stronger than the ECMF.
40 day Upper Level Model: (11/21) This model depicts a weak mixed pattern over the entire Pacific with no change forecast for the next 40 days. This model runs about 1 week ahead of what happens at the surface.
CFS Model - 3 month (850 mb wind): (11/18) This model depicts a very weak Inactive Phase of the MJO was migrating east while weakening over the KWGA with near neutral anomalies over the KWGA. The Inactive Phase is to continue migrating east and hold through 12/7 with sporadic pockets of east anomalies forecast over the period. The Active Phase of the MJO is to develop in the far West Pacific 12/16 but holding weak with neutral anomalies in the KWGA. This pattern is to hold through the end of the model run on 2/18/18. The low pass filter indicates a modest low pressure bias over the extreme west KWGA and it is to ease east filling 70% of the KWGA by 1/28. A high pressure bias is over the East KWGA at 170E and is to move east into the East Pacific and only 20% remaining in the KWGA by Feb 1. If this verifies, the underpinnings of La Nina are to be fading and then gone by late December. This suggest that as winters builds (typically the peak of La Nina in the jan timeframe), support for La Nina is to be fading. But it takes 3 months for the ocean to respond to whatever happens in the atmosphere, so this winter is lost to La Nina regardless of what the low pass filter indicates. No significant oceanic change is expected until likely early April 2018. Even at that it will take about 5 years for the Pacific to recharge from the 2014-16 El Nino before another El Nino develops. So a neutral ENSO pattern is likely to develop.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (11/21) A pattern change set up in August, with warm water retreating to the west and cooler water building in the east. Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 30 degs in the far West Pacific at 165E. The 28 deg isotherm line has retrograded heavily to 179E. The 24 deg isotherm was weak at 130W and shallow at 60 meters deep at 140W. Anomaly wise a clear change is present in the East Pacific with warm water gone and instead neutral to modestly negative temperatures are at the surface and down to -3 degs C down 100 meters at between 95-170W indicative of La Nina. Warm anomalies are isolated to the West Pacific at +2.0 degrees down to 100 meters deep with the dividing line between cool temps to the east at 170W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 11/14 depicts a large area of subsurface cool water filling the East Pacific (-4.0 degs) and erupting to the surface in broad pockets between 90W to 165W with a near neutral temperature pattern in the west.
Sea Level Anomalies: (11/14) Negative anomalies are in control at -5 cms over the entire equatorial East Pacific with a core of -10 cm anomalies present between Ecuador to 155W.
Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (11/20) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate a clear cool pattern has developed. Upwelling continues along Peru and Ecuador though weaker than weeks past then tracking west on the equator out to 160W. The cool pool continues west from there but not as strong. No warm anomalies are indicated within 3+ degs north or south of the equator over the entire region.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (11/20): A warming trend was developing along Peru. A weak cooling trend was indicated along the entire equatorial Pacific from the Galapagos west to 140W. La Nina is pulsing again.
Hi-res Overview: (11/20) Regardless of the short term warming trend indicated above, a clear La Nina cool stream is present starting off Southern Chile pushing north up Peru and building in coverage, then turning northwest off Ecuador tracking west over the Galapagos and building out to 150W and stable. Weak cool anomalies continued west from there out to 180W. Cool water at depth is erupting to the surface with the breach point near the Galapagos. There is no sign of warm anomalies in the Nino 1.2 or Nino3.4 regions.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/21) Today's temps were rising solidly to -0.236, much warmer than the -2.248 low point reached on 11/5. And that low point was lower than the previous coldest point reached on 10/11 at -1.9 degs.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: Today (11/21) temps were falling again to -1.146, making this the lowest temp reached so far. A previous low peak was reached at -1.1 on 11/23. The long arc suggests a steadying pattern. La Nina is in control.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (11/21) The forecast has temps falling steadily from -0.75 in early Nov to -1 in late Dec falling to -1.2 in early Feb. Then the trend is to turn upwards reaching -0.6 in April and -0.4 degs in July 2018 and holding there. This suggests a legit La Nina is expected for the Winter of 2017-2018. The CFS SST images (11/05) continues to suggest a moderate La Nina cool pattern building on the equator off the Galapagos into Dec-Jan 2018, then fading but still very present into May 2018. A full on La Nina is setting up.
IRI Consensus Plume: The mid-Oct Plume updated (11/7) depicts temps forecast to fade -0.7 degs in Oct and holding through Dec, then slowly rising from there turning neutral in April 2018. See chart here - link The NMME consensus for Oct average indicates temps -0.85 degrees below normal Nov-Jan 2018 then rebounding to normal in April. It sure looks like La Nina is on the way. The CFSv2 is now in the middle of that pack.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (11/21): The daily index was steady at 9.03. The 30 day average was rising some at 7.25. The 90 day average was steady at +8.03. This suggests a turn towards La Nina.
ESPI (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive is good, negative bad): (11/18) The index was rising some at -0.89 (up from -2.20 on 6/28/17). The trend is stable for now. Last years La Nina reached -1.94 on 11/2/16 so we've bested that already. But the recent upward trend is offering some hope. Still it looks like La Nina is returning for a double dip/2 year La Nina (not unusual). This index is a forerunner of what happens in the ocean by 2-3 months in developing El Nino and La Nina events.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO is weakly negative, but not as much as one would expect with La Nina in play.
Per NOAAs index recent values (Jan-Dec): Jan 2017 = +0.10, Feb = +0.04, March = +0.12, April=+0.52, May=+0.30, June=+0.19, July= -0.50, Aug= -0.68, Sept = -0.28, Oct=-0.60. This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington EDU index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2017 = +0.77, Feb = +0.70, Mar = +0.74, April=+1.12, May=+0.88, June=+0.79, July=+0.10, Aug=0.09, Sept = 0.32, Oct=0.05 . No negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave
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POWERLINES Night at the OPL - Surf Footage Featuring Mavericks from Powerlines Productions plus live music from 6 to 8 PM- Nov 17, 2017. Video starts at 8:15 PM at the Old Princeton Landing (OPL) in Half Moon Bay/Princeton CA.
Titans of Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table