Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 2.6 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 1.5 ft @ 7.9 secs from 163 degrees. Water temp 81.1 (Barbers Pt), 81.1 (Pearl Harbor 233), 81.1 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 5.5 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 3.7 ft @ 8.6 secs from 82 degrees. Water temp 79.3 degs
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 2.6 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 1.7 ft @ 9.8 secs from 229 degrees. Water temp 79.7 degs
Buoy 46069 (S. Santa Rose Is): Seas were 4.3 ft @ 13.7 secs with northwest swell 2.1 ft @ 13.4 secs from 315 degrees. Wind northwest at 10-12 kts. Water temperature 61.0 degs, 60.4 (Harvest 071), 70.3 (Topanga 103), 69.6 (Long Beach 215), 72.9 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 72.7 (Del Mar 153), 73.8 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 2.5 ft @ 13.3 secs from 304 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 1.0 ft @ 13.1 secs from 273 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.1 ft @ 13.5 secs from 203 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.1 ft @ 13.4 secs from 197 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.2 ft @ 13.4 secs from 199 degrees. Water temperature was 68.5 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 6.2 ft @ 12.5 secs with northwest swell 3.0 ft @ 12.2 secs from 298 degrees. Wind west at 2-4 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and NNW 11-12 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and WNW at 8 kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 56.3 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 60.4 (San Francisco 46026), 60.6 (SF Bar 142), 59.2 (Half Moon Bay 1801583), 56.8 (Monterey Bay 46092) and 60.6 (Aptos Creek 275).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (9/3) in North and Central CA waves were waist high coming from the northwest and mushed and warbled but with clean surface conditions. Protected breaks had sets at waist high and lined up, mushed and clean. At Santa Cruz surf was waist high on the peak of the sets and clean and mushed and inconsistent. In Southern California/Ventura waves were flat with knee high sets and textured and soft. Central Orange County had sets a few sets at waist high and weak and mushed and fairly clean early. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had set waves at waist high and weakly lined up with decent form and soft and clean. North San Diego had sets to near waist high and weakly lined up and soft but clean early. Oahu's North Shore was flat and clean with sideshore texture. The South Shore had a few thigh high sets and clean and real soft. The East Shore was getting east windswell at waist to chest high and chopped from moderate east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (9/3) swell was hitting North and Central CA from a tiny gale that developed south of the Eastern Aleutians on Thurs (8/29) with seas to 20 ft. And a small but solid gale was circulating in the Gulf on Mon-Tues (9/3) with 26-28 ft seas aimed east. Swell to result for HI and CA. Perhaps a primer gale to develop just south of New Zealand Thurs-Fri (9/6) with 33 ft seas followed directly by a stronger gale Sat-Sun (9/8) also tracking east with up to 39 ft seas aimed east. And maybe another to develop in the same area a week out. There's maybe still some hope from the Southern Hemi.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday AM (9/3) the jet was consolidated ridging northeast over the West Being Sea then falling hard south over the Eastern Aleutians forming a trough in the Central Gulf being fed by 130 kt winds offering good support for gale development. the jet then ridged north up into coastal Alaska and into North Canada east of there trough offering nothing. Over the next 72 hours the Gulf trough is to track east and pinch off on Wed (9/4) no longer supporting gale formation. But another shallow trough is to form in the same area mostly over the Northern Gulf Thurs-Fri (9/6) being fed by up to 140 kts winds offering some minimal hope to support low pressure development.Beyond 72 hours that trough is to push east and be inland over North Canada on Sun (9/8) offering nothing. In the west at that time the jet is to be strong with winds 140 kts running east from Kamchatka directly over the Aleutians into the Northern Gulf but with no troughs indicated and more or less holding through Tues (9/10) but with a trough developing just along the coast of Canada pushing down into the Pacific Northwest with it's leading edge just reaching the OR-CA border perhaps ushering in some weather. But not clear support for gale formation is indicated.

Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (9/3) tiny swell from a gale previously south of the Eastern Aleutians was hitting North and Central CA (see East Aleutian Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours swell is to be radiating southeast from another gale currently tracking through the Gulf of Alaska (see Gulf Gale below).

East Aleutian Gale
A gale developed on Wed AM (8/28) over the intersection of the dateline and the Aleutians producing a small area of 35-40 kt west winds with seas trying to develop. In the evening the gale was straddling over the Central Aleutians with maybe some 30 kt west winds just barely south of the Aleutians offering nothing. Thurs AM (8/29) the gale fell southeast some over the far west Southeast Aleutians with winds 30 kts and seas 17 ft over a small area at 50.5N 170.75W aimed east. in the evening fetch built some while becoming more exposed under the East Aleutians with 30-35 kt northwest winds and seas 20 ft at 51.5N 165.75W aimed east and expanding in coverage some later in the evening. The gale dissipated from there. Low odds of small swell resulting at the coast.

North California: Swell arriving on Mon (9/2) late afternoon building to 1.4 ft @ 12-13 secs at sunset (1.5 ft). Swell peaking Tues AM (9/3) at 2.0 ft @ 11-12 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Residuals Wed AM (9/4) fading from 1.6 ft @ 10 secs early (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 308 degrees

Gulf Gale
A gale started developing Mon AM (9/2) in the Central Gulf producing west winds at 30 kts starting to get some traction while lifting northeast with seas starting to build. In the evening north and northwest winds were 40-45 kts with seas 20 ft at 44N 159.25W aimed southeast. On Tues AM (9/3) northwest winds were 40+ kts and seas 28 ft at 45N 152W aimed southeast. In the evening fetch is to be fading while drifting north from 30-35 kts and seas 20-24 ft aimed east at 47.5N 148W aimed east. The gale to dissipate after that. Possible swell for Hawaii but really focused on the Pacific Northwest down into North and Central CA. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (9/5) building to 2.8 ft @ 13 secs later (3.5 ft). Swell holding Fri AM (9/6) at 2.9 ft @ 12 secs and holding decently through the day (3.5 ft). Dribbles on Sat (9/7) fading from 2.4 ft @ 11 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 355 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival starting Thurs PM (9/5) building to 2.4 ft @ 15 secs later (3.5 ft). Swell peaking Fri AM (9/6) at 3.2 ft @ 13 secs early (4.0 ft). Swell fading Sat AM (9/7) from 2.7 ft @ 11 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 295-297 degrees

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Wed AM (9/4) northwest winds to be 20 kts off Cape Mendocino and northwest at 10 kts for the rest of North and all of Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10 kts for all of North and Central CA. No windswell forecast.
Thurs AM (9/5) northwest winds to be 5 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10 kts for North Ca and 15 kts for Central CA south of Monterey Bay. No windswell forecast.
Fri AM (9/6) northwest winds to be 15 kts off of Cape Mendocino but northwest 10 kts nearshore for all of North CA and all of Central CA. No change in the afternoon but with winds up to 15 kts south of Monterey Bay. Windswell building slightly later.
Sat AM (9/7) northwest winds to be 15 kts over Cape Mendocino and up to 20 kts off of the coast and northwest 10-15 kts for the rest of North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be mostly 15 kts for North and Central CA. Weak windswell possible.
Sun AM (9/8) northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15 kts for North and Central CA. No meaningful windswell forecast.
Mon AM (9/9) northwest winds to be 15 kts for both North and Central CA early over a shallow area. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for both North and Central CA. No windswell forecast.
Tues AM (9/10) northwest winds to be 5-10 kts early for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA with solid low pressure approaching Oregon. In the afternoon southwest winds to be 5-10 kts for North CA and northwest 5 kts for Central CA. Increasing odds for legit local windswell.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 0, 0, 0 and 0 inches.

Temperatures for the intersection of Tioga Pass Road and the John Muir Trail (Toulomne Meadows - 8700 ft): Freeze Level 12,500 ft Sat PM-Tues PM (9/10), otherwise 14,000 ft or greater. Temps to hold steady at the intersection level at 55-60 degs through Mon (9/9) falling to 45-50 degs into Wed AM (9/11) then back to 55-60 degs beyond.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell producing weather systems of interest have occurred with no swell hitting or in the water.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours a small primer gale is forecast developing Thurs AM (9/5) just south of New Zealand with 40 kts west winds and seas building from 23 ft. In the evening west winds to build to 45 kts due south of New Zealand with seas building to 33 ft at 54.25S 165.75E aimed east. The gale to fade some Fri AM (9/6) with 35 kts west winds and seas 32 ft at 56S 175.75E aimed east. Small swell possibly radiating east and northeast.

On Fri PM another gale is to develop just southeast of New Zealand producing 45 kts southwest winds and seas 28 ft at 52.25S 169.25E aimed northeast. On Sat AM (9/7) the gale to track east with southwest winds to build to 50 kts with seas 37 ft at 53S 179.25E building to 39 ft mid-day. In the evening the gale is to fade while tracking east with west winds 35-40 kts over a building area and seas 35 ft at 53.75S 172 W aimed east. Fetch fading Sun AM (9/8) from 30-35 kts over a broad area with seas 29 ft at 54.25S 165.75W aimed east. The gale to dissipate from there. Something to monitor.

And on Tues (9/10) yet another gale is forecast developing under New Zealand with up to 29 ft seas aimed east and developing more. Something to monitor.

ENSO Neutral Trying Weakly to Turn to La Nina
Models Waffle on La Nina Strength Ahead
9 Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and cold water has traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific and is starting to erupt off the coast of Ecuador with the remaining warm pool created by El Nino starting to dissipate in the East Equatorial Pacific. Regardless, the atmosphere is still weakly in El Nino mode and will continue from previous momentum while slowly fading through Fall of 2024.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 10 Active MJO's produced 9 Kelvin Waves from Dec 2022 through Dec 2023 resulting in El Nino. The CFS model is predicting steady weal easterly anomalies over the KWGA with the low pressure bias moving over the Maritime Continent and a high pressure bias setting up over the dateline region. We are now in a fading El Nino pattern with La Nina forecast and trying to develop over the Pacific. But, the Summer after a strong El Nino Winter in the Pacific it is normal for the Southern hemi storm pattern to be stronger than normal and centered under New Zealand. The net result should be a somewhat above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration originating under New Zealand.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (9/2) Water sensors are down in the east. Hoping a sensor upgrade is in works. 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were light east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and moderate to strong east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (9/3) Today strong east anomalies were filling the KWGA. The forecast suggests the pattern holding through 9/14 but with a pocket of strong west anomalies developing 9/6-9/13 in the far West KWGA reaching east to 150E. Beyond east anomalies are to start tracking east with weak west anomalies developing reaching east to the dateline at the end of the model run on 9/19. A significant Inactive MJO is underway but forecast to be displaced east starting 9/14.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (9/2) Currently a weak Active MJO pattern (wet air) was building over the west KWGA. The statistic model depicts the Active MJO (wet air) building on day 5 of the model run filling 2/3rds of the KWGA, filling it on days 10 and 15 of the model run at strong status. The dynamic model depicts the same thing through not quite as strong.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (9/1) - The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over the Central Maritime Continent. It is to move to the West Pacific 2 weeks out and somewhere between very weak and moderate strength. The dynamic model depicts it meandering to the far East Maritime Continent 2 weeks out and building to modest strength.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (9/3) This model depicts a moderate Active MJO pattern (wet air) moving east over the West Pacific. The Active Phase is to slowly continue tracking east through the KWGA through 9/18 at moderate status then pushing east of the KWGA. A moderate Inactive pattern (dry air) to follow building over the KWGA 9/28 and taking control through the end of the model run on 10/13.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (9/2) Today the Inactive MJO was depicted east of the KWGA but with strong east anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast has east anomalies filling the KWGA through 9/7. West anomalies to build over the West KWGA starting 9/7 filling the western half of the KWGA through 9/16 then fading while east anomalies holding mostly filling the central and East KWGA near the dateline through the end of the model run on 9/30.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (9/3) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Inactive MJO was fading over the KWGA with east anomalies in control of the bulk of the KWGA. The Inactive Phase is to track east through 9/7 with east anomalies continuing unchanged while moving east. The Active MJO was starting to build in the west today and is to push to the dateline on 9/13 holding there through 10/5 with west anomalies reaching almost to the dateline 9/10 and holding through 10/5. A weak Inactive MJO is to try and develop but doing nothing 10/1-10/11 with west anomalies reaching east to 170E through that period.Then another Active Phase is forecast 10/15-11/14 with west anomalies tracking east to the dateline if not east of there. A weak Inactive Phase to follow through the end of the model run on 11/31 but with west anomalies holding in the west and moving now over the East Pacific as well. In general west anomalies are to take over the KWGA starting 9/5 and hold unchanged for the next 3 months with east anomalies isolated to the dateline and points east of there and possibly even giving up that area in November. This is a significant upgrade. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean (starting 4/28) with a second contour developing 7/14 fading 8/23 then reappearing 9/22-11/20 with the first contour reaching east to 120E initially then to 130E at the end of the model run. The high pressure bias started to develop in the Pacific on the dateline 5/4 into 8/3 then collapsed to nothing. It is to return weakly over the dateline 9/22 with 1 contour perhaps getting weakly established 10/21 through the end of the model run. This is a significant change from previous runs suggesting La Nina much weaker than previous forecasts.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (9/3) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm had retrograded west to 172E. The 29 degree isotherm had retrograded to 176W. The 28 deg isotherm line had retrograded to 164W. The 24 degree isotherm was steady at 110W. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +1 degs in the far West Pacific and neutral to +1 deg in the East. A pool of cold anomalies at up to -2 degs was centered subsurface down 125m at 165W but not reaching to the surface but this is questionable due to lack of sensors east of 155W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 8/26 clarifies that indicating cold anomalies reaching to the surface east of 145W filling while growing in coverage over the entire East Equatorial Pacific. Subsurface cold water was filling the equatorial East Pacific thermocline but not as strong as previous. La Nina is here. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (8/26) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 cms from Ecuador to the dateline with -10 cms between 120W-135W. This suggests a cooling trend is fading. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (8/26) cold water started filling the Equatorial Pacific early March then retracted in June, rebuilt in coverage mid-July with temps in the core down to -1.5-2.0 degs between 110-135W, but now gone with -0.5 to -1.5 deg anomalies between 90W to 135W. Weak warm anomalies at +0.5 degs were west of the dateline starting at 170W and have been since late May, but pushing east to 140W since early Aug. A clear La Nina pattern is in play with warm water limited in coverage in the west and cooler water dominating the equatorial Pacific, but not as strong as even a month ago.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (9/2) The latest images depict a La Nina cool stream has built on the equator from Ecuador west to 160W and broadest and coldest from 90W-130W and stronger compared to days past. Residual warm anomalies from the remnants of El Nino were north and south of it across the Pacific. We are in a transitional phase moving from El Nino to La Nina but not strongly.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (9/2): A thin stream of mostly cooling waters were on the equator from Ecuador to 110W with mostly arming water east of there to 145W. The latest La Nina pulse might be fading.
Hi-res Overview: (9/2) A moderate stream of cooler than normal waters were running west over the Equatorial Pacific from Peru up to Ecuador then west out to the dateline with the broadest coverage from 85W to 135W and bigger in coverage than days past. Remnant warm water from El Nino was over the rest of the equatorial Pacific from 20N to 20S.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (9/3) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were falling at -0.852 after reaching a recent low on 7/29 near -1.1 degs, falling the previous 3 weeks after briefly being up near +0.0 (7/7-7/11) after rising from -1.008 (on Tues 6/25). Previously the trend has been steady at roughly -0.750 since 5/14. Highlights from the recent past are -1.105 (5/28), -1.014 (5/16) rising to +0.184 degrees (5/2) after falling to -0.843 (4/21) and -0.565 on 4/1 and has been below 0 since 3/19.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (9/3) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were falling at -0.546 and have been falling in pulses since 6/30. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20 and but then rebuilt hovering near neutral 6/2 through 6/30. Previously temps have been in the +1.2 deg range since 3/11. Temps were at +1.2 degs or higher since 1/13. Temps had been in the +1.5 range 11/19-1/12.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were -0.2 (week of 8/28) 0.0 (8/21), -0.1 degrees (8/14) +0.0 (8/7) -0.2 degrees (7/31) and the first week negative in a year, +0.1 (week of 7/24), +0.2 (7/17), +0.3 (7/10 and 7/3), +0.4 ( 6/26) +0.3 (6/19) +0.0 (week of 6/12) +0.1 (6/5 & 5/29) +0.2 degs (5/15 and 5/22), +0.3 (5/8), +0.5 (5/1), +0.8 (4/24), +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data is falling from +1.72 Oct, +2.02 Nov, +2.02 Dec and +1.82 Jan and +1.52 Feb, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +0.24 May, +0.18 June and +0.10 July.
3 Month ONI (centered) 3 month period is -0.38 (MJJ), -0.21 (AMJ), +0.07 MAM, +0.48 FMA, +0.86 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.47 ft for NDJ (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.49 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb then down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and then 0.25 mid June and mid-July falling to -0.3 degs in mid-Aug.
Forecast (9/3) - Temps to fall to -0.50 mid-Sept and -1.15 degs in Nov 2024 before rebounding to neutral in April 2025. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same trend but with temps to -0.50 degs Sept and -0.80 in Oct then down to -1.00 degs in Nov. This is an upgrade. According to this version of the model we are moving to a weak La Nina.
IRI Consensus Plume: The August 19, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.273 degs today and is the 3rd month below neutral since El Nino developed. Temps to fall steadily from here forward down to -0.393 in Sept (3 month running mean) then fading from there down to -0.492 in Nov then rising from there. This is an upgrade with temps previously forecast down to -0.944 (per the April model run). The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.616 in Nov and the Statistic down to -0.294 in Jan. Both these projections are higher than the month before.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (9/3) the Daily Index was positive at +4.99 and has been solid positive 19 days running. Over the past month it was a mix of positive and negative.
The 30 day average was rising at +8.08 and has been mostly negative the last month. Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was slowly inching up at -0.56 and negative the last month. It has not been positive yet since the demise of El Nino. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
We are in ENSO neutral status.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling to -1.52 in March 2024, -2.12 April, -2.99 May, -3.16 in June, -2.99 July and -2.88 Aug. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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