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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Thursday, August 17, 2017 1:45 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
2.1 - California & 1.0 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 8/7 thru Sun 8/13

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

2 Small S. Hemi Swells Hitting CA
Nothing on the Forecast Charts North or South

BUOY ROUNDUP

On Thursday, August 17, 2017 :

  • Buoy 146 (Lanai): This buoy is down and there is no backup site and no date if or when it will return to service. Buoy 233/51211 (Pearl Harbor) is available but has a new frequency layout. We'll have to code a new program to read it's output (date TBD).
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.9 ft @ 14.7 secs with southern hemi swell 1.9 ft @ 14.1 secs from 177 degrees. Wind at the buoy was north at 2-4 kts. Water temperature 70.3 degs. At Ventura (Buoy 111) swell was 1.5 ft @ 10.1 secs from 266 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 0.9 ft @ 18.1 secs from 195 degrees. At Camp Pendleton (043) swell was 2.0 ft @ 14.8 secs from 211 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.6 ft @ 15.5 secs from 184 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 6.9 ft @ 10.0 secs with local north windswell 5.4 ft @ 9.4 secs from 312 degrees and southern hemi swell 2.4 ft @ 14.8 secs from, 175 degrees. Wind at the buoy was northwest at 8-10 kts. Water temp 61.3 degs.
    Notes

    46006, 46059, Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

 

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Thursday (8/17) in North and Central CA local north windswell was producing surf at head high on the sets and warbled from south wind. Protected breaks were chest high and clean and lined up. At Santa Cruz some south swell was starting to show with rare sets producing waves at waist to maybe chest high and clean. In Southern California up north waves were thigh to maybe waist high on the sets with some warble running through it though wind were light nearshore. In North Orange Co southern hemi swell was showing well with set waves 1 ft overhead and sweeping up from the south. In South Orange Co sets at top spots were head high to 1 ft overhead and clean. In San Diego surf was thigh to waist high and clean and weak. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore had sets thigh to waist high and clean and slow. The East Shore was near flat and chopped from modest east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Thursday (8/17) moderate locally generated north windswell was present along the coast of North and Central California and forecast to build into the weekend (8/20), then collapsing after that. No windswell was present along east shores of the Hawaiian Islands and expected to remain that way into maybe Mon (8/21) and then only up slightly. Southeast swell was hitting California at exposed breaks but one it's way down from a gale that developed in the far Southeast Pacific lifting north Tues-Wed (8/9) but mostly well east of the Southern CA swell window. A tiny cutoff gale developed in the mid-South Pacific Fri (8/11) producing a small area of 31 ft seas aimed north. that swell is starting to show mainly in Southern CA. But beyond nothing is projected. No tropical activity of interest is forecast either. Things are quiet and expected to stay that way as we start the transition to Fall.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Thursday (8/17) weak high pressure at 1024 mbs was centered 900 nmiles west of North CA ridging east into Oregon generating a pressure gradient over North CA producing 25 kt north winds and the usual local north windswell at exposed breaks down into Central CA. This high was too far north and east to be effective at producing winds of 15 kts or greater east of or near the Hawaiian Islands with no windswell of interest present.

Over the next 72 hours for California the local pressure gradient is to continue building into Sun AM (8/20) as the high builds to 1026 mbs and starts ridging east solidly with north winds up to 35 kts over Cape Mendocino but with an eddy flow (south winds) from just south of Pt Arena and points south of there. The result is to be increasing north local windswell with decent conditions over portions of North and all of Central CA.

For Hawaii, easterly trades are to remain weak and below the 15 kt threshold to produce meaningful windswell through Sun (8/20).

 

  North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No swell producing tropical systems of interest were being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Thursday (8/17) high pressure at 1026 mbs was 900 nmiles west of North CA ridging east forming a weak pressure gradient producing 25 kt north winds over Cape Mendocino with a eddy flow (south winds) from Pt Arena southward. More of the same is forecast through Sat (8/19) but with the size of the fetch building in coverage and winds building to 30 kts over a small core and up to 35 kts late and the eddy flow holding but from Pt Reyes southward. Sunday (8/20) the gradient is to peak with 35 kt north winds over Cape Mendocino and 20-25 kts north winds well offshore Big Sur while nearshore winds remain from the south from Pt Arena southward. Mon (8/21) the gradient is to be in retreat with light winds everywhere if not an eddy flow other than north winds 25 kts limited to Cape Mendocino and retreating to 20 kts there through the day. Tuesday light winds to be in control over all CA nearshore waters and holding until Thurs AM (8/24) when new high pressure start building north of Hawaii ridging east with the usual pressure gradient redeveloping with north winds building to 20 kts along the entire coast of North and Central CA.

 

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Thursday AM (8/17) the jetstream continued in a zonal pattern with the northern branch running east on the 34S latitude line while the southern branch of the jet was running east on the 68S latitude line with a ridge pushing it further south in the West over Antarctic Ice and with a weak trough in the Southeast Pacific being fed by 110 kt winds pushing north to 60S offering weak support for gale development there. Over the next 72 hours
starting late Fri (8/18) the trough in the east is to build near 120W reaching north to 55S being fed by 140 kts winds offering improved support for gale development but mostly east and out of the California swell window targeting only Chile and Peru with the ridge in the west holding and building east. Through Sun (8/20) the trough is to push further east and fade while the ridge in the west is to weaken with a the jet lifting north some, but winds only 70 kts offering no support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours starting Mon (8/21) the southern branch of the jet is to lift north tracking east on generally the 62S latitude line traversing the northern edge of Antarctic Ice with winds weak (less than 110 kts) offering no support for gale development. And if anything by Thurs (8/24) another ridge is to start pushing south over the West Pacific with no obvious support for gale development indicated.

Surface Analysis  
On Thursday (8/15) small swell from a gale the formed off Chile was hitting California from a southeasterly angle (see Chilean Gale below). Another small swell was starting to hit Ca too from a gale that developed in the Central Pacific (see Central Pacific Gale below).

Otherwise no swell producing fetch is forecast.

 

Chilean Gale
A gale low started developing in the far Southeast Pacific on Sun (8/6) with 40 kt south winds trying to get traction on the oceans surface. In the evening winds built to 45 kts from the south with winds 24 ft at 56S 116W mostly out of the SCal swell window. On Mon AM (8/7) fetch faded some from 40 kts from the south but starting to fall south with barely 30 ft seas at 58S 111W and outside the CA swell window. In the evening the gale started building but well north and east with 55 kt southwest winds off South Chile with a tiny area of 36 kts seas at 50S 95W. No swell production is forecast relative to CA. On Tues AM (8/8) fetch held at 45 kts from the southwest with seas building to 36 ft at 50S 96W. On Tues PM (8/8) fetch built while lifting north at up to 50 kts with seas to 40 ft at 48S 99W and way too far east to be of interest to California targeting only Chile and Peru. This system lifted northeast on Wed AM (8/9) with winds fading from 45 kts and seas 39 ft at 44S 93W just off Southern Chile with swell pushing north towards Chile and Peru up into Mexico. Low odds of sideband swell reaching up into California.

Southern CA: Swell holds Fri (8/18) at 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft) fading Sat (8/19) from 1.7 ft @ 13 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 170-175 degrees

North CA: Swell holds Fri (8/18) at 1.6 ft @ 14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft) fading Sat (8/19) from 1.7 ft @ 13 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 165-175 degrees

 

Central Pacific Gale
Thursday PM (8/10) a tiny cutoff low developed generating an area of 40 kts south winds aimed north in the upper reaches of the Central Pacific with seas building. The gale held with south winds 40 kts while holding it's position Fri AM (8/11) with a tiny area of 30 ft seas at 40S 139W. In the evening the gale was lifting north with 40 kt south winds and seas 29 ft at 38N 141W aimed north. Fetch was fading Sat AM (8/12) from 30-35 kts with 22 ft seas fading at 34S 140W aimed north. The gale to dissipate from there.

Southern California: Small swell to start arriving on Thurs (8/17) building to 1.6 ft @ 16-17 secs late (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell builds Fri (8/18) to 2.3 ft @ 16 secs later (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell continues Sat (8/19) 2.7 ft @ 15 secs (4.0 ft). Swell continues on Sun (8/20) at 2.6 ft @ 13-14 secs (3.5 ft) fading out on Sun (8/21) from 2 ft @ 12-13 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 200 degrees

North California: Small swell to start arriving on Fri (8/18) building to 1.6 ft @ 15-16 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell continues Sat (8/19) 2.0 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fades on Sun (8/20) from 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 198 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours regarding windswell production for California, high pressure is to hold 900 nmiles west of North CA on Mon (8/21) ridging solidly into the coast there with the local pressure gradient still producing a fetch of 25+ kt north winds over Cape Mendocino pushing south to a point well off Pt Conception but with no fetch nearshore south of Pt Arena. Windswell is to still be present down into Central CA early but the gradient and winds are to be collapsing through the day with winds 20 kts later and barely 15 kts over a faltering area early Tues (8/22) and even that gone mid-day. Windswell quickly fading out on Tues (8/22). Wednesday generic 15 kt north winds to start developing along the North and Central CA coast holding into Thurs (8/24) but shallow and not capable of generating meaningful windswell.

For Hawaii trades to be less than 15 kts until Wed AM (8/23) when supposedly a tropical system is to be 900 nmiles east of Hawaii interacting with high pressure to the north forming a pressure gradient and building east winds to 15 kts within 200 nmiles east of the Islands and up to 35 kts in the tropical system. Some odds for easterly windswell developing along exposed shores of the Hawaiian Islands and increasing Thurs (8/24) as the tropical system tracks west. But the odds of this occurring are low at this early date.

Otherwise no low pressure systems of interest are to develop tracking east through the North Pacific.


South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

More details to follow...

 

La Nina Cool Pool Continues Digging In

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration and is holding.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast:
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of Wed (8/16) east winds were over the entire equatorial Pacific and solid over the Kelvin Wave Generation Area. Anomalies were moderate easterly of the far East Pacific turning neutral further west and then again turning easterly modestly over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (8/17) Moderate east anomalies were modeled over the entire KWGA. This pattern is to hold with moderate east anomalies forecast over the core of the KWGA through 8/18 then fading in coverage and velocity into 8/21, then rebuilding solidly after that through the end of the model run on 8/24. It appears an Inactive Phase of the MJO was building and feeding a La Nina 'like' pattern.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: As of 8/16 a neutral MJO pattern was depicted over the entire equatorial Pacific. The statistical model depicts this pattern to hold at dead neutral for the next 2 weeks. The dynamic model depicts the same thing. The ECMWF model suggests the Inactive/Dry Phase of the MJO is in control over the West Pacific and is to hold for the next 2 weeks. We had been thinking perhaps a real Active Pattern would be in place at this point in time per the CFS model rather than being dominated by the Inactive Phase of the MJO, but that is not to be.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (8/17) The ECMF model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO exceedingly weak and effectively nonexistent and is to remain weak and directionless over the next 2 weeks. The GEFS model depicts the same thing. This is not promising.
40 day Upper Level Model: (8/17) This model depicts a solid Inactive/Dry pulse exiting the Pacific over Central America. But another weaker Inactive/Dry pulse is also depicted developing in the West Pacific. It is to track east while slowly fading pushing over Central America through 9/26. A neutral MJO pattern biased Dry is forecast to follow in the West Pacific through the end of the model run on 9/26. So basically some flavor of the Inactive Phase is to hold for the next 40 days. This model runs about 2 weeks ahead of what happens at the surface.
CFS Model - 3 month (850 mb wind): (8/17) This model depicts the Inactive Phase of the MJO was over the KWGA with weak east wind anomalies over the West Pacific building east over the bulk of the KWGA, and this pattern is expected to hold if not build to 9/16. After that the Active Phase of the MJO is to return starting 9/18 with west anomalies in control starting 9/28 through 10/20 when the Inactive Phase starts developing the West Pacific and west anomalies dissipate. A neutral wind anomaly pattern is to hold through the end of the model run (11/14). The low pass filter indicates a very weak La Nina signal redeveloped 7/25 from the dateline eastward and is to hold very weak till 9/25, then building in coverage but drifting east. There's some sense the El Nino like core is to start shifting east from the Indian Ocean to the West Pacific in early November. Best guess is a very weak directionless and low energy weather pattern biased towards La Nina redeveloping in Fall of 2017. It will take 5 years for the Pacific to recharge from the 2014-16 El Nino.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (8/17) A pattern change is starting to show, with warm water in the far West Pacific at 30 degs depicted at 160E. The 28 deg isotherm line has stabilized at 167W. The 24 deg isotherm has retrograded to 120W and holding at 75 meters deep at 140W (previously 100 meters). The warm water layer in the East Pacific is getting shallower suggesting a transition to La Nina. Anomaly wise a clear change is developing with warm water at +1.0 degrees above normal in the East Pacific and also in the West Pacific at 100 meters and stretched thin between these 2 pockets. Cooler anomalies are in a pocket between 140-170W at -3.0 degs down 125 meters. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 8/11 depicts one small fragmented pocket of warm water in the East Pacific and shrinking in coverage while a building pattern of cooler water at -3.0-4.0 degs takes root at depth from the dateline eastward down at 100m. There is no real warm water in the far West Pacific to feed any sort of a progressive Kelvin Wave pattern. The GODAS image appears to be about 1 week behind the TAO data.
Sea Level Anomalies: (8/11) Negative anomalies are building in coverage at -5 cms from 170-110w with a core at -10 cm between 160W to 130W suggesting a building cool pool at depth.

Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (8/16) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate a weak warm pattern trying to hold well west of Peru. But a steady modest upwelling pattern is indicated nearshore along Peru and Ecuador reaching northwest to the Galapagos and then flowing west from there on the equator getting better defined and continuous between 110-160W. This looks very much like a typical La Nina signature. A broad pocket of cooling is also holding centered at 25S 100W (well off Chile). Warm anomalies are in place south of Mexico but are starting to get eroded by the cool flow building along the equator. Overall cooling in the heart of the Nino3.4 region is developing and undeniable.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (8/15): A neutral to cool trend was along the coast of Chile and Peru. But a solid cool trend was pushing west off Ecuador over the Galapagos and building at 110W out to 150W with a few lingering pockets of warm water intermixed, but strongly favoring the cooler water. An early start of a legit La Nina pattern appears to be developing.
Hi-res Overview:
(8/16) A clear legit La Nina cool stream has developed on the equator from 110W to 170W. A weak warm regime is barely holding off Chile and Peru. A thin and building stream of cooler water associated with nearshore upwelling is depicted just off Peru northwest to the Galapagos feeding the larger cool pool further west on the equator. Overall waters of all oceans of the planet are warmer than normal. Suspect climatology needs to be updated to reflect this new reality.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/17) Today's temps continue to inch down -1.179, down from a warm peak of +3.0 degs on 3/18 and +1.0 degs on 5/2 and +0.6 degs on 6/20.  
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: Today (8/15) temps are continuing to fall at -0.517, way down from +0.5 degs where it was consistently through 7/18. A clear downward trend is indicated.

Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (8/17) The forecast has temps falling steadily from +0.0 in early Aug to -0.5 in Oct easing down to -0.7 in Dec then stating to rebound to 0.0 in early March 2018 and perhaps warming to +0.4 degs in April. This suggests a neutral pattern biased cool setting up for the Winter of 2017-2018. The CFS SST images (8/11) continues to suggest a weak La Nina cool pattern building on the equator off the Galapagos in Sept and building steadily into Dec/Jan 2018. There is no source for El Nino like warming with the warm pool in the far West Pacific weak and fading.
IRI Consensus Plume: The mid-July Plume updated (7/25) depicts temps warmed to +0.5 degs in June. Temps are forecast to fade some to +0.3 degs in July, and are to hold there solid through March 2018 suggesting a neutral pattern in control. See chart here - link.  The NMME consensus depicts the same thing with temp +0.3 degrees above normal through March.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (8/17): The daily index was rising at +14.81 and has been generally positive for the past month. The 30 day average was rising some at 4.97. The 90 day average was steady at +0.57 or just north of neutral. This suggests a return to ENSO neutral conditions has taken hold.
ESPI (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive is good, negative bad): (8/17) Today's value was falling some to -1.27 (up from -2.20 on 6/28) but still suggesting a turn towards La Nina. A supposed peak of this La Nina was reached on 11/2/16 at -1.94 (last year) . So the index is about as negative as it was at the peak of last years (2016) La Nina. At this time it looks like La Nina is returning. This index is a forerunner of what happens in the ocean by 2-3 months in developing El Nino and La Nina events.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO continues positive, though much weaker lately (as expected with La Nina setting in).
Per NOAAs index recent values (Jan-Dec): Jan 2017 = +0.10, Feb = +0.04, March = +0.12, April=+0.52, May=+0.30, June=+0.19, July=-0.41. This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO. No consistently negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington EDU index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2017 = +0.77, Feb = +0.70, Mar = +0.74, April=+1.12, May=+0.88, June=+0.79, July=+0.10. No negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

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