Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 3.2 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 1.9 ft @ 13.2 secs from 178 degrees. Water temp 79.7 (Barbers Pt), 79.3 (Pearl Harbor 233), 79.5 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 5.3 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 3.8 ft @ 8.6 secs from 145 degrees. Water temp 78.8 degs
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 3.3 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 2.4 ft @ 9.6 secs from 327 degrees. Water temp 79.0 degs
Buoy 46069 (S. Santa Rose Is): Seas were 4.8 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 3.9 ft @ 6.6 secs from 303 degrees and southern hemi background swell 1.7 ft @ 13.5 secs from 203 degrees. Wind NW at 10-12 kts. Water temperature 58.6 degs, 54.5 (Harvest 071), 66.4 (Topanga 103), 62.6 (Long Beach 215), 72.0 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 66.4 (Del Mar 153), 70.9 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 5.4 ft @ 6.8 secs from 313 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 3.2 ft @ 6.7 secs from 269 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.1 ft @ 13.6 secs from 215 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.2 ft @ 13.5 secs from 213 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.5 ft @ 13.4 secs from 211 degrees. Water temperature was 68.9 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 5.2 ft @ 6.7 secs with northwest windswell 3.5 ft @ 6.1 secs from 312 degrees and background southern hemi swell 1.1 ft @ 13.7 secs from 210 degrees. Wind north at 4-8 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and NNW 14-18 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and NNW at 6 kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 53.2 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 54.5 (San Francisco 46026), 58.3 (SF Bar 142), 57.0 (Half Moon Bay 1801583) and 53.4 (Monterey Bay 46092).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (8/6) in North and Central CA waves were waist to maybe chest high and warbled and very mushed but with no local wind and clean surface conditions. Protected breaks were waist high and mushed and a little closed out but fairly clean. At Santa Cruz surf was thigh high and clean and soft and inconsistent with heavy fog early. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh high and soft and mushed and weak but clean early. Central Orange County had sets at thigh high and soft and clean with heavy fog early. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had set waves at waist high and weakly lined up and soft and clean early with fog on it. North San Diego had sets at waist to near chest high and mushed but lined up and weak and clean early with fog holding a bit offshore. Oahu's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore had sets at waist to maybe chest high and weakly lined up with decent form but soft and clean early. The East Shore was thigh to maybe waist high and chopped from moderate east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (8/6) no meaningful swell was hitting California but remnant swell energy was still hitting Hawaii from a local gale that developed southwest of Tahiti Sun (7/28) with seas to 28 ft aimed north tracking east and southeast into Tues (7/30) with seas building to 35 ft over a small area. A small gale developed in the Southeast Pacific Mon-Tues (8/6) lifting north with seas to 30 ft over a tiny area. Maybe limited swell is radiating north. A small gale develops while pushing east to east-southeast under New Zealand Mon-Tues (8/6) with up to 36 ft seas aimed east but again only over a small area. Maybe limited southwest swell is radiating northeast. And a third is to develop in the deep South Central Pacific Thurs-Fri (8/9) with up to 38 ft seas aimed east-northeast. Nothing else to follow.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (8/8) no swell was in the water or being produced.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

Tropical Update
Tropical Depression Fabio formed on Monday (8/5) building into the evening reaching tropical storm status with 45 kts winds tracking northwest positioned 550 nmiles south-southeast of Cabor San Lucas Mexico. On Tues AM (8/6) winds were up to 55 kts still tracking northwest and 450 nmiles south of Cabo San Lucas. The forecast suggests no additional strengthening with Fabio continuing on a northwest track and dissipating Wed PM (8/7) 750 nmiles south of Pt Conception. No swell of interest to result.

Tropical Storm Emilia formed on Sunday (8/4) south of Fabio tracking north-northwest and built to minimal tropical storm strength Mon AM (8/59 with winds 40 kts building to 45 kts in the evening. On Tues AM (8/6) Emilia had winds of 55 kts tracking west-northwest and was interacting with the weaker Fabio (above) . Rough estimates suggest Emila building to near hurricane strength Wed AM (8/7) with winds 65 kts positioned 1,100 nmiles south of San Diego tracking west-northwest then fading. Low odds for some background swell reaching Southern CA.

Southern CA: Assuming the models hold, small swell arriving Thurs (8/8) building to 2.7 ft @ 11-12 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell peaking early Fri (8/9) 4.3 ft @ 13-14 secs (5.5 ft). Residuals fading from 2.0 ft @ 9-10 secs early (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 165 moving to 175 degrees

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Wed AM (8/7) northwest winds build to 20-25 kts over Cape Mendocino and 10-15 kts down to the Golden Gate, and 10 kts south of there over Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds fade from 20+ kts over Cape Mendocino and 15 kts down to the Golden Gate and 10 kts for Central CA. Windswell fading some.
Thurs AM (8/8) northwest winds to be 15+ kts limited to Cape Mendocino with northwest winds 5 kts south of there extending over Central CA early. More of the same in the afternoon but with northwest winds 10 kts for Central CA. Windswell fading some.
Fri AM (8/9) northwest winds build over North CA at 20-25 kts and northwest at 10 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds fade in coverage over North CA at 20 kts and 15 kts over all of Central CA. Low odds of minimal short period windswell.
Sat AM (8/10) high pressure is to be building in the Central Gulf with northwest winds holding at 20-25 kts for North CA and 10-15 kts over Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15-20 kts over all of North and Central CA. Junky windblown windswell possible.
Sun AM (8/11) more of the same is forecast with northwest winds 20-25 kts over North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to build to 20 kts solid over all of North and Central CA. Windswell building.
Mon AM (8/12) high pressure eases east some with northwest winds 20-25 kts for North CA early and 20 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon no real change is forecast. Windswell holding.
Tues AM (8/13) northwest winds to be 20-25 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts south of there to Pt Conception. Windswell holding with high pressure locked and loaded in the Gulf..

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 0, 0, 0 and 0 inches.

Temperatures for the intersection of Tioga Pass Road and the John Muir Trail (Toulomne Meadows - 8700 ft): Freeze Level 14,000 ft or greater for the entire 10 day forecast period. Temps at the intersection 60-65 degrees through Sun (8/11) then falling to 50-55 degs Mon (8/12) if not 45-50 degrees on Thurs (8/15).

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday AM (8/6) the southern branch of the jet was pushing east under New Zealand but weak with 90 kt wind reaching to the Central South Pacific then dissipating with perhaps a weak trough in it offering limited support for gale development. Most energy was in the northern branch of the jet tracking flat east on the 30S latitude line offering nothing. Over the next 72 hours the jet is to fall southeast some offering nothing. Beyond 72 hours starting Fri (8/9) winds energy is to build some in the jet over the Central South Pacific lifting northeast at 110 kts starting to form a trough pushing east to northeast on Sat (8/10) with winds to 120 kts offering decent support for gale development before dissipating on Sun (8/11). Beyond a stronger push of wind energy is forecast developing under New Zealand Sun-Mon (8/12) tracking east with winds to 140 kts and lifting east-northeast into Tues (8/13) offering improving support for gale formation.

Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (8/6) swell from an extratropical/cutoff gale that developed south of Tahiti was fading out in Hawaii and not expected to reach the US West Coast (see Olympic Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours swell from a gale over the Southeast Pacific is to be radiating north towards California. And no meaningful swell is expected to result from a gale previously under New Zealand given it's south-southeast heading.

Southeast Pacific Gale
On Mon AM (8/5) a tiny gale developed in the Southeast Pacific with 45 kt south winds and seas building while lifting due north. In the evening south winds were 45 kts over a small area with seas 30 ft at 48.5S 135.5W aimed north. The gale continued north Tues AM (8/6) with winds fading from 40 kts with seas 30 ft at 43.5S 131.5W aimed north-northeast. In the evening that gale is to be fading while turning northeast with winds 35 kts and seas 25 ft at 38.5S 126.5W aimed northeast. The gale to dissipate after that. Something to monitor.

Southern CA: Small swell is to arrive starting Tues (8/13) reaching 1.3 ft @ 16-17 secs (2.0 ft). On Wed (8/14) swell is to peak at 2.0 ft @ 15-16 secs mid-day (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (8/15) from 1.9 ft @ 14 secs early and fading steadily (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 195 degrees

North CA: Small swell is to arrive starting late Tues (8/13) reaching 1.0 ft @ 17 secs (1.5 ft). On Wed (8/14) swell is to peak at 2.0 ft @ 15-16 secs mid-day (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (8/15) from 1.9 ft @ 14-15 secs early and fading steadily (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 192 degrees

New Zealand Gale
Also on Mon PM (8/5) a gale developed while tracking east well south of New Zealand with west winds 50 kts and seas 36 ft at 58S 169E aimed east. On Tues AM (8/6) the gale is to expand while tracking east with 40-45 kt west winds and seas 33 ft over a moderate area at 58.75S 179.25E aimed east. In the evening west winds to be fading from 40 kts with seas 35 ft at 61.75S 173.75W aimed east-southeast starting to impact the Ross Ice Shelf. The gale to fade from there. No meaningful swell is to result given the gales south-southeast heading.

Olympic Gale
A small gale was developing in the Olympic swell window Sun AM (7/28) southwest of Tahiti with winds 40-45 kts over a tiny area and seas building from 27 ft at 27S 162.5W aimed north trying to produce some swell. In the evening south winds were 45 kts with seas 26 ft at 27.75S 158.5W or 769 nmiles southwest of Tahiti on the 221 degree path. On Mon AM (7/29) the gale was falling east-southeast with south winds 50 kts and seas 31 ft at 28S 153.75W or 626 nmiles south of Tahiti on the 198.7 degree path. The gale continued on it's east-southeast track in the evening with 45-50 kt south wind and seas 35 ft at 29.5S 149W aimed north or 733 nmiles out on the 197.8 deg path. On Tues AM (7/30) the gale is to be fading with 40 kt south winds and seas fading from 23 ft at 31S 148W or 595 nmiles out on the 194 degree path. The gale to evaporate after that. Unrefined local swell is to possible result for the Olympic venue and up into Hawaii.

Oahu: Dribbles on Tues (8/6) fading from 2.1 ft @ 11-12 secs (2.0-2.5 ft) and gone by sunset. Swell Direction: 180 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours a gale if not a storm is to develop in the Central South Pacific on Thurs AM (8/8) with a solid area of 50 kt west-southwest winds and seas building from 31 ft at 60.5S 169.5W aimed east. In the evening the gale is to track east-northeast with 45 kt west-southwest winds and seas 38 ft at 59.75S 158.5W aimed east. On Fri AM (9/8) fetch is to be fading from 35 kts over a broad area aimed east with seas fading from 32 ft at 58.75S 150.25W aimed east. The gale is to be fading from 35 kts in the evening with seas fading from 28 ft at 58S 138.25W aimed east-northeast. Something to monitor.

ENSO Neutral In Control
Forecast Suggests a Weak La Nina Ahead
9 Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and cold water has traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific and is starting to erupt off the coast of Ecuador with the remaining warm pool created by El Nino starting to dissipate in the East Equatorial Pacific. Regardless, the atmosphere is still weakly in El Nino mode and will continue from previous momentum while slowly fading through Fall of 2024.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 10 Active MJO's produced 9 Kelvin Waves from Dec 2022 through Dec 2023 resulting in El Nino. The CFS model is predicting steady weal easterly anomalies over the KWGA with the low pressure bias moving over the Maritime Continent and a high pressure bias setting up over the dateline region. We are now in a fading El Nino pattern with La Nina forecast and trying to develop over the Pacific. But, the Summer after a strong El Nino Winter in the Pacific it is normal for the Southern hemi storm pattern to be stronger than normal and centered under New Zealand. The net result should be a somewhat above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration originating under New Zealand.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (8/5) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. Anomalies were light over the East equatorial Pacific and light west over the Central Pacific and neutral over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (8/6) Today moderate east anomalies were filling the KWGA. The forecast suggests the pattern becoming more entrenched with east anomalies building in coverage and intensity filling the KWGA possibly reaching strong status starting 8/15 and holding while tracking east through o the end of the model run on 8/22. A significant Inactive MJO is in development

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (8/5) Currently a weak Inactive MJO pattern (dry air) was easing east into the KWGA. The statistic model depicts the weak Inactive MJO (dry air) continuing unchanged on days 5 and 10 of the model run then reaching moderate strength 15 days out filling the KWGA. The dynamic model depicts basically the same thing but with the Inactive MJO building a little quicker.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (8/2) - The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was over Africa and weak. It is to move to the East Indian Ocean 2 weeks out and very weak. The dynamic model depicts it meandering about eventually reaching the West Indian Ocean.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (8/6) This model depicts a moderate Inactive MJO Phase (dry air) over the East KWGA with a weak Active Phase (wet air) over the far West KWGA. The Inactive MJO is to track east and east of the KWGA 8/11 with the weak Active Phase (wet air) moving over the KWGA 8/16 weakly filling the KWGA through 8/31. A new Inactive Phase (dry air) pushes east into the KWGA 9/5 holding through the end of the model run on 9/15.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/5) Today a moderate Active MJO was indicated moving over the East KWGA but with mostly east anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast has the Active MJO east of the KWGA 8/7 with east anomalies building over the KWGA to moderate plus strength on 8/12 with the Inactive Phase over the KWGA 8/8 through 8/25 and east anomalies filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 9/2 as a new Active Phase builds over the Maritime Continent.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/6) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Inactive MJO was building over the KWGA with east anomalies taking over the bulk of the KWGA. The Inactive Phase is to track east through 9/4 with east anomalies continuing unchanged. An Active MJO starts pushing into the West KWGA 8/26 with west anomalies developing over the same west KWGA if not as early as 8/22. The Active Phase is to track east through 10/20 with west anomalies building east to about 170E on 8/25 stalling there and holding through 10/20. Beyond a weak Inactive Phase is to move into the KWGA 10/25 through the end of the model run on 11/3 but with weak west anomalies holding from 170E and points west of there with east anomalies east of there. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure is over the Indian Ocean (starting 4/28) and a second contour developed 7/14 and is to be hold from 135E and points west of there through the end of the model run unchanged. The high pressure bias started to develop in the Pacific on the dateline 5/4 into 8/3 then collapsed to nothing. Is is to return filling the East Pacific from 170E and points east of there through the end of the model run with only 1 contour line. This is actually an upgrade suggesting weakness in La Nina.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (8/6) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm was wavering near 177E today. The 29 degree isotherm was stable at 172W. The 28 deg isotherm line had moved east from 143W to 118W but retrograded west and was stable at 156W. The 24 degree isotherm was retrograding west to 115W where previously it was the whole way across the Pacific but very shallow. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +1 to +2 degs limited to the far West Pacific. A pool of cold anomalies at up to -6 degs was centered subsurface down 125m at 155W and trying to reach to the surface at 110W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 8/1 indicates cold anomalies reaching to the surface east of 150W and growing in coverage in the east. Subsurface cold water was filling the equatorial East Pacific thermocline. La Nina is here but not strong. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (8/1) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 cms east of 170W and -10 cms between 100-165W. This suggests a cooling trend is in play. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (8/1) cold water started filling the Equatorial Pacific early March then retracted in June but rebuilt in coverage mid-July with temps -0.5 to -1.5 degs from Ecuador to 167W and solidifying its position. Weak warm anomalies at +0.5-1.0 degs were west of the dateline starting at 175E and have been since late May. A clear La Nina pattern is in play with warm water limited in coverage in the west and cooler water dominating the equatorial Pacific.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (8/5) The latest images depict a La Nina cool stream holding on the equator from Ecuador west to 160W. Residual warm anomalies from the remnants of El Nino were north and south of it across the Pacific. We are in a transitional phase moving from El Nino to La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (8/5): A few pockets of cooling waters were on the equator between 110W to 140W, shrinking from days previous. Perhaps the current La Nina pulse is weakening.
Hi-res Overview: (8/3) A moderate stream of cooler than normal waters were running west over the Equatorial Pacific from Peru up to Ecuador then west out to 165W with the broadest coverage from 110W to 140W but smaller than days past. Remnant warm water from El Nino was over the rest of the equatorial Pacific from 20N to 20S.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/6) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were rebounding some at -0.698 bottoming out on 7/29 near -1.1 degs, falling the previous 3 weeks after briefly being up near +0.0 (7/7-7/11) after rising from -1.008 (on Tues 6/25). Previously the trend has been steady at roughly -0.750 since 5/14. Highlights from the recent past are -1.105 (5/28), -1.014 (5/16) rising to +0.184 degrees (5/2) after falling to -0.843 (4/21) and -0.565 on 4/1 and has been below 0 since 3/19.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/6) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were rebounding at -0.183 after falling to about -0.55 degs on 7/31 and have generally been on a dropping trend since 6/30. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20 and but then rebuilt hovering near neutral 6/2 through 6/30. Previously temps have been in the +1.2 deg range since 3/11. Temps were at +1.2 degs or higher since 1/13. Temps had been in the +1.5 range 11/19-1/12.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were -0.2 degrees (week of 7/31) and the first week negative in a year, +0.1 (week of 7/24), +0.2 (7/17), +0.3 (7/10 and 7/3), +0.4 ( 6/26) +0.3 (6/19) +0.0 (week of 6/12) +0.1 (6/5 & 5/29) +0.2 degs (5/15 and 5/22), +0.3 (5/8), +0.5 (5/1), +0.8 (4/24), +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data is falling from +1.72 Oct, +2.02 Nov, +2.02 Dec and +1.82 Jan and +1.52 Feb, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +0.24 May, +0.16 June. .
3 Month ONI (centered) 3 month period is -0.22 (AMJ), +0.07 MAM, +0.48 FMA, +0.86 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.47 ft for NDJ (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.49 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb then down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and then 0.25 mid June and mid-July, beating expectations.
Forecast (8/1) - Temps to fall to -0.50 late Aug and -1.40 degs in Nov 2024. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same trend but with temps to -0.25 degs in Aug and -0.6 in Sept then down to -1.05 degs in Nov-Dec. According to this version of the model we are moving to a weak to moderate La Nina.
IRI Consensus Plume: The July 19, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.229 degs today and is the 2nd month below neutral since El Nino developed. Temps to fall steadily from here forward down to -0.383 in Aug (3 month running mean) then fading from there down to -0.5213 in Oct then rising from there. This is an upgrade with temps previously forecast down to -0.944 (per the April model run). The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.697 in Nov and the Statistic down to -0.315 in Jan.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (8/4) the Daily Index was weakly negative at -3.40 but had been positive the previous 3 day and negative 7 days previous due to extratropical low pressure just south of Tahiti. It was positive the previous 5 days and negative 11 days prior to that and positive 13 days previous.
The 30 day average was falling at -8.85. Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was falling at -3.06. It has not been positive yet since the demise of El Nino. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
We are in ENSO neutral status.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling to -1.57 in March 2024 and -2.129 April, -3.00 May, -3.02 in June). Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.