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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Saturday, July 8, 2017 1:14 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
3.5 - California & 0.3 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 7/10 thru Sun 7/16

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

First of 3 Small South Swells Arriving in CA
Quiet Pattern Forecast Beyond

BUOY ROUNDUP

On Saturday, July 8, 2017 :

  • Buoy 146 (Lanai): This buoy is down and there is no backup site and no date if or when it will return to service. Buoy 233/51211 (Pearl Harbor) is available but has a new frequency layout. We'll have to code a new program to read it's output (date TBD).
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.3 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 2.7 ft @ 6.6 secs from 261 degrees. Wind at the buoy was northwest 4 kts. Water temperature 67.3 degs. At Ventura (Buoy 111) swell was 2.0 ft @ 7.6 secs from 270 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.0 ft @ 18.4 secs from 201 degrees. At Camp Pendleton (043) swell was 1.7 ft @ 17.9 secs from 206 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.7 ft @ 18.1 secs from 176 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 4.8 ft @ 8.3 secs with windswell 3.2 ft @ 7.9 secs from 320 degrees and tiny southern hemi swell 1.3 ft @ 18.6 secs. Wind at the buoy was northwest at 14-18 kts. Water temp 55.9 degs.
    Notes

    46006, 46059, Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

 

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Saturday (7/8) in North and Central CA local north windswell was producing surf at waist to chest high, mushy and jumbled from northwest winds. Protected breaks were maybe waist high and lightly warbled and weak with a light onshore flow. At Santa Cruz minimal south angled southern hemi swell was producing sets to maybe thigh high and clean. In Southern California up north local windswell was producing waves at knee to thigh high and clean and barely rideable and slow. In North Orange Co new south angled southern hemi swell was starting to show with sets at chest high with maybe a stray head high peak and modestly textured from southerly wind. In South Orange Co southern hemi swell was showing at head high and clean and lined up but slow. In San Diego southern hemi swell was thigh to waist high and clean but weak. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and textured from northeast wind. The South Shore was tiny with thigh to maybe waist high sets and clean. The East Shore was flat and chopped from modest east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Saturday (7/8) minimal northwesterly windswell was in the water hitting California but none for Hawaii. Local north winds to be building over North CA into Mon (7/10) offering potential for improved north windswell then fading. Trades in Hawaii to rebuild Mon-Wed (7/12) offering minimal hope along east facing shores. For the southern hemisphere a gale developed in the far Southeast Pacific Sat (7/1) with 29 ft seas aimed well north with a second one developing late Sun (7/3) with 26 ft seas aimed northeast. That gale intensified producing 36 ft seas Mon (7/3) barely in the SCal swell window but mainly targeting Chile and Peru. Another small gale developed again on the edge of the CA swell window Tues (7/4) with 36 ft seas aimed northeast. After that things went to sleep and nothing is forecast for the coming 7 days on the forecast charts. A series of small very south angled swell are pushing towards California and points south of there, with a southern hemi wave drought expected to follow. There's also potential for small hurricane swell radiating towards Southern CA from Tropical Storm Eugene when it peaks on Sunday (7/9).

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Saturday (7/8) weak high pressure at 1022 mbs was starting to build just 500 nmiles off North CA with north winds build along the North and Central Coasts at 20 kts starting to offer minimal north windswell generation potential.

Over the next 72 hours relative to the mainland that high pressure system is to build to 1024 mbs and be reinforced by a second high at 1026 mbs developing in the Gulf of Alaska on Sun (7/9) forming a pressure gradient and north winds building along the North Coast at 20-25 kts pushing nearly 30 kts Mon (7/10) generating more focused north windswell for North and Central CA. 15-20 kt north winds to remain in play along the Central Coast making for rather jumbled conditions there. The gradient and north winds to be fading on Tues (7/11) dropping to 20 kts later in the day with windswell fading.

For Hawaii east trade winds are to be less than 15 kts until Tues AM (7/11) then rebuilding some from the east as high pressure builds to 1030 mbs 1200 nmiles north of the Islands with east winds hitting the 15 kt mark over a good sized footprint east of the Islands offering some odds for small easterly windswell along exposed easterly shores. That fetch is to be fading Wednesday (7/12) and gone later in the day as the high retrogrades northwest.

 

  North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
Tropical Storm Eugene was 650 nmiles south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas Baja Mexico on Sat AM (7/8) tracking northwest at 7 kts with winds 45 kts and forecast to build while holding it's current heading and speed. Eugene is to peak mid-day Sun (7/9) with 70 kts winds at 17N 115.5W (174 degs Dana Point) holding into the evening at 18N 117W (177 degs Dana Point). Something to monitor relative to swell production for Southern CA (~900 nmiles away).

Southern CA: Possible swell arrival on Tues (7/11) building late to 5.1 ft @ 13-14 secs (7.0 ft) then rapidly fading Wed AM (7/12) from 3.8 ft @ 12 secs (4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 175 degrees

North CA: Possible swell arrival late on Tues (7/11) at 2.8 ft @ 14 secs (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell peaking Wed (7/12) at 3.5 ft @ 13-14 secs (4.5 ft) then fading Thurs AM (7/13) from 3.5 ft @ 12 secs (4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 165 moving to 175 degrees

 

California Nearshore Forecast
On Saturday (7/8) weak high pressure at 1022 mbs was centered 500 nmiles west of Central CA ridging into British Columbia generating a modest pressure gradient and northwest winds at 20 kts along the North and Central coasts. The gradient is to build some on Sun (7/9) generating north winds and becoming focused more over North CA with north winds there at 25 kts and 20 kts reaching south to Big Sur and 15 kts to Pt Conception. More of the same is forecast Monday (7/10) with north winds to near 30 kts over Cape Mendocino and the same further south. Tues (7/11) the gradient is to start fading with north winds 20-25 kts early over Cape Mendocino and fading but with north winds 15 kts still pushing into Central CA waters. Wednesday (7/12) north winds to fade to 20 kts over a small area over Pt Arena but 10 kts or less from San Francisco southward and that pattern to continue through Fri (7/14). By Sat (7/15) north winds are to start building in coverage over all of North and Central CA waters at 15-20 kts but focused over Pt Arena at 20-25 kts.

 

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Saturday AM (7/8) the southern branch of the jet was flowing zonally east under New Zealand with winds 70-80 kts moving east across the South Pacific on the 65S latitude line then lifting east-northeast over the Southeast Pacific with a small and weak trough at 120W with winds to maybe 100 kts barely in the California swell window offering little support for gale development. But west of there no support for gale development was indicated.
Over the next 72 hours the southern branch is to start ridging south over the Southwest Pacific on Sun (7/9) down at 67S continuing on that heading the whole way across the Pacific with no troughs forecast and the ridging pattern only building through Tues (7/11) with it pushing well into Antarctica then offering zero support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours starting Wed (7/12) more of the same is forecast but not pushing into Antarctica and instead just tracking east on the 72S latitude line and totally over Antarctic Ice actively suppressing gale development. That pattern to hold through Sat (7/15). Sure looks like the atmosphere is feeling the affect of a La Nina pattern.

Surface Analysis  
On Saturday (7/8) the first longer period elements of the southern hemi Primer Swell was hitting California coming from
the far Southeast Pacific (See Primer Gale below). Another gale formed directly behind it, but nowhere near as strong as originally forecast (see Second Gale below). And yet another small gale formed behind that (see Third Gale below). After that the pattern faded with no additional swell producing weather systems occurring. And looking at the 7 day forecast no change is forecast.

 

Primer Gale
On Thurs AM (6/29) a gale started developing in the Southeast Pacific with 35 kt southwest winds building in the deep South Central Pacific moving rapidly east. That fetch started lifting northeast in the evening at 35 kts over a broad area with seas building to 24 ft at 59S 131W. On Fri AM (6/30) winds built to 40 kts over a modest area imbedded in a broader fetch of 35 kt south winds with seas 29 ft at 57S 126W aimed well north. On Fri PM fetch was collapsing from 35 kts aimed north with seas holding at 29 ft at 52S 119W targeting California southward to Peru. This system was gone on Sat AM (7/1) with seas fading from 28 ft at 46S 114W targeting mainly Mexico and Central America and out of the California swell window. This system should produce a nice little pulse of 16 secs energy targeting California and points south of there.

Southern CA: Swell building on Sat (7/8) pushing 2.6 ft @ 17 secs late (4.5 ft). Swell peaking on Sun (7/9) at 3.2 ft @ 15 secs (4.8 ft with sets to 6.0 ft). Swell fading on Mon (7/10) from 3.0 ft @ 14 secs (4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 180 degrees

North CA: Swell peaking Sun (7/9) building to 2.6 ft @ 15-16 secs later (4.0 ft). Swell continues Mon (7/10) at 2.6 ft @ 14 secs (3.5-4.0 ft), then fading Tues (7/11) from 2.3 ft @ 13 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 175-180 degrees

 

Second Gale
Also on Sat AM (7/1) a new fetch of 30-35 kt southwest winds started building over the deep South Central Pacific rushing east with seas building from 20 ft over a small area and inconsequential. In the evening fetch built in coverage to the broad category at 35 kts from the southwest moving to the Southeast Pacific with seas building to 23 ft at 55S 128W. On Sun AM (7/2) that fetch tracked east and faded with a secondary fetch building right behind it at 40-45 kts from the southwest and positioned further north with a new area of seas to 24 ft at 58S 132W. Fetch tracked east in the evening while building to 50-55 kts over a tiny area from the southwest at 61S 119W (mostly east of the CA swell window) with seas building to 27 ft at 53S 125W targeting California and up to 30 ft at 60S 118W. On Mon AM (7/3) 50 kt southwest winds continued tracking east with 34 ft seas at 60S 116W over a tiny area targeting Chile and seas from previous fetch at 28 ft at 59S 120W targeting California. The storm started lifting north in the evening with fetch 45 kts over a tiny area and seas building to 35 ft over a tiny area at 57S 115W barely targeting Southern CA and mainly targeting Chile. The gale dissipated from there with a small area of seas still targeting Chile. Possible small swell for Southern California with most energy towards South America and specifically Chile but nowhere near as large or strong as previously forecast.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (7/10) building to 2.1 ft @ 16 secs late (3.0 ft). Swell continues upward on Tues (7/11) to 2.6 ft @ 16 secs (4.0 ft). Swell building Wed (7/12) at 3.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell fading Thurs (7/13) from 2.5 ft @ 13-14 secs (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 190 degrees

Northern CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (7/11) at 2.1 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell building Wed (7/12) at 2.5 ft @ 15 secs (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell fading Thurs (7/13) from 2.3 ft @ 13-14 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 185 degrees

 

Third Gale
On Mon PM (7/3) another tiny gale developed in the deep Southeast Pacific with southwest winds building from 40 kts and seas building. On Tues AM (7/4) fetch built to storm status at 50 kts from the southwest over a small area with 32 ft seas building at 62S 129W. In the evening fetch was fading from 45 kts tracking northeast with seas building to 36 ft at 59S 120W targeting Southern California and points southward. Wed AM (7/5) the gale was racing northeast and fading from 40 kts with 33 ft seas over a small area at 55S 110W targeting mainly Chile.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival late on Wed (7/12) with swell building to 1.6 ft @ 17-18 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell holding on early Thurs (7/13) at 2.1 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.5 ft). Swell pulsing Fri (7/14) at 3 ft @ 14-15 secs (4.0 ft) then fading Sat (7/15) from 2.3 ft @ 13-14 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 184 degrees

Northern CA: Expect swell arrival late on Wed (7/12) with swell building to 1.6 ft @ 18 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell holding on early Thurs (7/13) at 1.7 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading Fri (7/14) at 2.0 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft) then fading Sat (7/15) from 2.3 ft @ 13-14 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 180 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours high pressure is to rapidly be retrograding northwest on Wed (7/12) pulling away from the California coast with the gradient fading resulting in fading northwest winds over North CA at barely 20 kts over a small footprint and holding Thurs-Fri (7/14) offering little odds for windswell development. There's some sense that high pressure is to start building Sat (7/15) with 20+ kt north winds building in coverage along the North and Central Coasts perhaps offering improved odds for windswell development.

For Hawaii trades to remain weak below the 15 kt threshold Thurs-Sat (7/15) offering no odds for windswell production along exposed easterly shores.

 
South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather system are forecast.

More details to follow...

 

Clear La Nina Signals Reappearing

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration and is holding.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast:
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of Friday (7/7) east winds were over the entire equatorial Pacific including the Kelvin Wave Generation Area. Anomalies were moderate easterly on the dateline and weak westerly over the Central KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): Modest east anomalies were modeled over the East KWGA and forecast to retrograde west to the far west KWGA by the end of the 7 day model run (7/15) but fading in coverage. As of a few weeks ago it was looking like the long running Inactive Phase of the MJO/La Nina was dissipating, but it still appears to have not given up.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: As of 7/7 a very weak Inactive/Dry Phase of the MJO was in play over the far Western Pacific. The statistical model depicts a neutral pattern taking over quickly and continuing with no MJO signal in play over the next 2 weeks. The dynamic model continues to suggest the Inactive Phase holding if not building some in the West Pacific for the next 2 weeks.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (7/8) The ECMF model indicates the Active Phase of the MJO was weak over the Central Indian Ocean and is to track steadily east reaching the Maritime Continent 2 weeks out. The GEFS depicts the Active Phase holding weak in the Indian Ocean through the 2 week period.
40 day Upper Level Model: (7/8) This model depicts a weak Active/Wet Pattern was over the West Pacific and it is forecast to slowly track east and dissipate over Central America on 8/12. Perhaps a weak Dry/Inactive Phase to set up in the far West Pacific on 8/12 tracking east through 8/17. This model runs about 2 weeks ahead of what happens at the surface.
CFS Model - 3 month (850 mb wind): (7/8) This model depicts a very weak Active MJO signal over the KWGA with neutral to weak west anomalies indicated there. Over the coming days weak west anomalies are to hold in coverage in the KWGA with the weak Active MJO signal holding over the KWGA to 7/24. The MJO signal is to dissipate 7/25-8/16 but neutral to weak west anomalies are to hold in the KWGA until a legitimate Active Phase of the MJO is to fully develop in the West Pacific on 8/20 with building west anomalies moderate in strength holding till 9/15. A weak Inactive Phase of the MJO is to develop in the KWGA 9/18-10/5 (end of the model run) but west anomalies are to still be in play in the KWGA, but weaker. Of note: East anomalies are to be in-play from the dateline and points east of there from 8/3 onward. The west wind anomaly scenario is likely overstated as the model has been teasing at west anomalies for months and yet they never develop. The low pass filter indicates La Nina dissipated as of 6/14. A lowpass La Nina signal is to redevelop 8/23 (previously 7/21) but from the dateline eastward. Best guess is a very weak directionless pattern is to set up or even a weak La Nina redeveloping in Fall of 2017. It will take 5 years for the Pacific to recharge from the 2014-16 El Nino.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (7/8) Actual temperatures remain stratified with warm water in the far West Pacific at 30 degs over a shallow area at 160E. The 28 deg isotherm line is steady at 144W. The 24 deg isotherm has retrograded west ending at 102W but it remains 100 meters deep at 140W. Anomaly wise a generic pattern of +1 deg anomalies stretches from the East to West Pacific from 110 meters upward. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 7/2 depicts a continuous stream of warm water tracking from the west to the east suggesting a homogenous pattern biased warm was in effect of the upper reaches of the entire equatorial Pacific. There is no real warm water in the far West Pacific to feed any sort of a progressive Kelvin Wave pattern. The GODAS image appears to be about 1 week behind the TAO data.
Sea Level Anomalies: (7/2) In all no positive or negative anomalies are present over the length of the equatorial Pacific other than a pocket of 0-5 cm anomalies at 140W that was shrinking in coverage. Effectively a dead neutral pattern is in control of the entire equatorial Pacific.

Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (7/5) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate a very weak warm pattern is just west of the coast of South American tracking northwest up to a point just south of the equator and then west from there. but it was steadily diffusing and is expected to be gone in the next 3 days. Nearshore a weak upwelling pattern is depicted lifting north off Chile, Peru and Ecuador then turning west over the Galapagos and west along the equator to 110W. Also cooling was present over a broad area off Central America and Mexico out to 120W. In short, a cool pattern is setting up over the Nino1.2 region advecting west and building in coverage. Also a broad pocket of cooling was building centered at 25S 100W (well off Chile) and starting to merge with the cooling pattern above. The La Nina that developed last Spring faded and was replaced by an El Nino like pattern that tried to build after it during March-May, but that too has dissipated and is being replaced by a neutral to cool pattern. it clearly looks like a La Nina pattern is taking shape
Hi-res 7 day Trend (7/7): A neutral trend was along the coast of Chile with a slight cool trend developing along Peru. A markedly cooler trend that has been building from Ecuador over the Galapagos and out to 120W is backing off some. This almost looks like the early start of a legit La Nina pattern. A strong warming trend continues in the Northern Hemi from California pushing north of Hawaii and reaching west to the Philippines. But overall nothing remarkable is indicated.
Hi-res Overview:
(7/7) A weak warm regime holds over Chile but pockets of cooler water are depicted from Peru north to Ecuador and west along the equator to 125W . West of there a warmer pattern existing out to 140E. Overall waters of all oceans of the planet are warmer than normal. Suspect climatology needs to be updated to reflect this new reality, or the recent Super El Nino has significantly redistributed heat across the oceans.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/8) Today's temps were falling solidly to -0.791, down from the peak of +3.0 degs on 3/18 and +1.0 degs on 5/2..  
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: Today (7/8) temps were rising slightly at +0.647 degs.

Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (7/8) The forecast has temps starting to fall weakly from +0.50 degs in late June, forecast dropping to +0.35 in early Aug holding to Oct, then dropping steadily to 0.0 in Dec and -0.2 degs in Jan 2018, then rebounding perhaps warming to +0.2.5 degs in March. This suggests a neutral pattern setting up for the Winter of 2017-2018. CFS data (6/26) still suggests a Modoki style warming pattern over the dateline this Fall and Winter but other models are no suggesting a return of a weak La Nina pattern. There is no source for El Nino like warming with the warm pool in the far West Pacific weak and fading. Much recharging and heat buildup is required for a real El Nino to develop. We're at least 5 years out from that.
IRI Consensus Plume: The mid-June Plume updated (6/15) depicts temps have warmed to +0.3 degs. Temps are forecast to hold at this level for the coming 8 months suggesting a neutral pattern in control. See chart here - link.  The NMME consensus depicts the same thing with temp +0.3 degrees above normal through Feb.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (7/8): The daily index was rising at 12.68 and has been positive for 5 days now, after a negative 33 day run. The 30 day average was rising some at -5.69. The 90 day average was rising some at -4.59 or just south of neutral. This suggests a return to ENSO neutral conditions has taken hold.
ESPI (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive is good, negative bad): (7/8) Today's value was rebounding slightly at -1.76 (up from -2.20 on 6/28) but still strongly suggesting a turn towards La Nina. A peak low was reached on 11/2/16 at -1.94, the deepest of the past La Nina event. So the index is currently more negative than at the peak of last years La Nina. At this time it looks like La Nina is returning. This index is a forerunner of what happens in the ocean by 2-3 months in developing El Nino and La Nina events.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO continues positive, though much weaker lately (as expected with La Nina setting in).
Per NOAAs index recent values (Jan-Dec): Jan 2017 = +0.10, Feb = +0.03, March = +0.09, April=+0.52, May=+0.36. This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO. No consistently negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington EDU index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2017 = +0.77, Feb = +0.70, Mar = +0.74, April=+1.12, May=+0.88. No negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

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http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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