On Thursday (6/16) Northern CA surf was waist high or less with poor conditions. South facing breaks were thigh high. Central California was waist high. Southern CA breaks from Santa Barbara to just north of LA were lucky to see waist high waves. The LA area southward into Orange County was mostly waist high with best breaks up to chest high. Southward to San Diego waves were waist high. The North Shore of Oahu was flat. The South Shore was waist to chest high. The East Shore was thigh to waist high.
Small surf prevails today with the South Shore of Hawaii doing the best with building swell from the South Pacific. That new southern hemi swell from under Tahiti to be decent by Friday and well past the weekend. This same energy to be pushing into California also late on Saturday (6/18) continuing into mid-next week. But of more interest in California is swell from a strong very late season gale currently circulating just off Oregon. North and Central CA to see solid size Friday into the early weekend with some energy even filtering into Southern CA. A new southern hemi storm is on the charts too. See details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
At the jetstream level on Thursday (6/16) an unusually strong trough was developing in the eastern Gulf of Alaska with 160 kt winds driving into it. a big ridge was north of Hawaii with a weak pinched trough again over the dateline. The leading edge of the Gulf trough was just starting to push into North CA (animation here). Over the next 72 hours the Gulf trough is to continue just off California getting steeper and steadily loosing energy, eventually pinching off on Monday (6/20) never pushing fully onshore. Further to the west no energy of any interest is projected.
At the surface today a remarkable late season winter-like low was positioned just off Oregon (see details below). Otherwise high pressure at 1024 mbs remained centered 1400 nmiles west of San Francisco with a second weak 1026 mb high off the southern Kuril Islands (animation here). Over the next 72 hours the low off Oregon is to fade while high pressure builds off California and the Gulf of Alaska filling from the dateline eastward. No other weather features of interest expected.
More model data here
Oregon Gale (North CA)
On Wednesday AM (6/15) low pressure at 996 mbs was positioned 900 nmiles west of southern Oregon with 40 kt winds confirmed in it's south and southwest quadrants centered near 40N 140W aimed at North and Central CA down the 285 degree great circle path and points northward into Oregon. Seas were building. In the evening pressure dropped to 992 mbs as a gradient developed between the low and high pressure to it's south and west. Winds were confirmed at 35-40 kts in it's southwest sector centered at 42N 137W aimed right down the 299 degree path to North CA (307 SCal). Seas were estimated at 24 ft centered at 41N 137W.
On Thursday AM (6/16) additional strengthening expected as upper level support builds. Pressure was down to 988 mbs with 40 kt northwest winds building at 43N 134W aimed right down the 308 degree path to North CA (312 SCal). Seas were 23 ft centered at 41N 134W. At 8 AM-1 PM buoy 46002 reported seas 20 ft with swell 12.5-14.5 ft @ 12.5 secs. In the evening pressure holding near 990 mbs with winds continuing at 35-40 kts centered at 42N 133W aimed about like before. Seas building to 25 ft centered at 42N 133W, just west of buoy 46002.
On Friday AM (6/17) the core of the low is to nuzzle right up to the Oregon coast with pressure at 992 mbs and winds dropping to 30-35 kts centered and aimed just like before. Seas forecast at 23 ft centered at 40N 130W, midway between buoys 46002 and where 46059 should be. In the evening this system is to fade out with winds dropping to 25 kts and swell generation potential fading. Seas 18 ft and dying fast.
This system to be gone by Saturday AM (6/18).
Unbelievable as it might seem, this storm (actually a gale) has formed and is tracking well to what the models suggested 3 days or more earlier. Judging by winter standards this is not an exceptional storm and is actually just so-so from a strength and duration perspective . But given that it exists in mid-June makes it an oddity. Large winter-like utility class swell with period in the 13-14 secs range is expected to reach the North California coast early Friday (6/17) holding through the day with lesser size filtering into Central CA and exposed breaks in Southern CA during the day Saturday. This swell is to be raw, with the fetch only 374-523 nmiles offshore from NCal at it's peak, leaving no room for raw chop from the swell generation area to decay off. Still size for the time of year should be most interesting.
NCal: Expect swell arrival near 11 PM Thursday (6/16) with size ramping up fast towards 9 ft @ 12 secs (9-10 ft faces). Size to bump up a little more Friday (6/17) 9 AM with swell 9.5 ft @ 13 secs maxing at 10.5 ft @ 14 secs mid-afternoon (12-13 ft). Size to hold into the evening, then start slowly tapering off early Saturday, though still sizeable. Swell Direction: 300-310 degrees
California Offshore Forecast
Thursday mornings local charts (6/16) are dominated by the effects of the late season gale just off the Oregon coast and high pressure that has been so strong was displaced well to the west, anchored north of Hawaii extending up to Alaska and east to Baja. The Oregon low was now nestled in a notch just off the Northern California coast. A light northwest wind flow was imaged from Monterey Bay southward but south winds were confirmed from Santa Cruz northward to Cape Mendocino, courtesy of the low. Satellite imagery indicated the leading edge of the low was over Monterey Bay with light rain from there northward.
This same pattern is to hold through Friday as the low slowly fades out while remaining stationary off the north coast. Finally on late Saturday high pressure is to get one isobar into the San Francisco Bay Area, but in general light winds with no strong influence from the high expected until at least mid-next week. High pressure is to get a nose into Southern California first, starting late Sunday 96/19) with north winds building through the early week.
The 5 Day wind forecast is now included with the surf & swell overview in the QuikCAST's.
On Thursday (6/16) the jetstream charts indicated a moderate trough was building and pushing north off the Ross Ice Shelf with energy from the southern branch already joining the northern branch. Not alot of energy or any significant increase in windspeeds were noted in either branch though (animation here). Over the next 72 hours the trough is to persist, but become more pinch and eventually shutting down about 150 hours out with a split jet pattern returning to the Southeast Pacific.
At the surface today a new low was developing in the deep central South Pacific off the eastern Ross Ice Shelf in the trough present in the upper levels of the atmosphere. Pressure was 968 mbs with winds confirmed at 40-45 kts over a moderate area centered at 60S 165W aimed at California up the 200 degree path and 30 degrees east of the 185 degree path to Hawaii. These winds were imbedded in a broader area of 35-40 kts winds aimed the same way. Seas were building. (animation here).
Over the next 72 hours this new low is to persist tracking east. On Friday (6/17) pressure is to be down to 960 mbs with winds 40-45 kts centered at 60S 155W aimed towards California right up the 196 degree path and 30 degrees east of the 178 degree path to Hawaii. Seas building to 32 ft late centered at 148W 55S, a bit out of the Hawaii and swell window. The low is to fade through Saturday (6/18) with pressure 956 mbs and winds 35-40 kts and fading. Seas forecast in the 30-32 ft range initially and fading. This system is to has it's best aim at California and targets to the south while only producing sideband swell pushing into Hawaii's swell window. Good swell generation potential for all locations from Tahiti into California and Central America with lesser size into Hawaii if this system develops as forecast.
More model data here
Small Tahiti Storm #3S
On Saturday PM (6/11) a new low was organizing south of Tahiti with pressure 972 mbs, starting to tap strong upper winds just north of it. Winds were building, confirmed at to 45-50 kts over a moderate 600 nmiles long area centered at 44S 153W aimed due north or about 20 degrees east of the 175 degree track to Hawaii and right up the 202 degree track to California. Seas were building.
By Sunday (6/12) pressure was up to 974 mbs with a long but thin 40-50 kt fetch covering an arc centered at 45S 153W in the storms west quadrant aimed due north. These winds were aimed right up the 175 degree track to Hawaii and also at California up the 201 degree path in the northern part of the arc. These winds were well to the north of normal and in close proximity to Tahiti and relatively close to Hawaii and the US west coast. Seas were modeled up to 30 ft centered at 40S 152W. By Sunday PM pressure was up to 978 mbs but winds continued at 40-50 kts centered at 45S 150W but over a smaller area aimed like before, right at Hawaii and 20 degrees of the path to California. Seas were modeled at 29 ft centered at 35S 147W.
By Monday AM (6/13) this system was fading fast with no swell producing fetch left. Residual seas of 29 ft were modeled at 43S 150W. This system was dead.
In all this system was generally uninspiring due to it's short life and limited fetch area. The big thing in it's favor though was it's rather northern position putting it in very close proximity to Tahiti and relatively close proximity to Hawaii (3447-3895 nmiles) and California (4423-4916 nmiles), Almost 2000 nmiles closer than it it was under New Zealand. This should significantly reduce the resulting swells travel distance and thereby reduce swell decay as it tracks north. On the other end of the spectrum, Tahiti was close to the core of the fetch (1600 nmiles) but not too close, allowing the swell to unwrap just enough to be decent with little decay. And local winds are to be favorable when the swell hits so maximum size potential can be realized. Perhaps a bit of warble, but not too bad. Hawaii will be next up with the fetch pushing right towards the Islands. Significant class potential is expected with most energy in the 14-15 sec range. Finally California to receive some fun sized surf, just under the significant class range, but well rideable just the same. Most energy is to be passing a bit west of California, but that should not be too bad.
Hawaii: Expect the first pulse of this swell to arrive Thursday morning (6/16) building through the day reaching 3 ft @ 16 secs by sunset (4.5-5.0 ft faces). Swell continuing solid on Friday (6/17) at 3.6 ft @ 14-15 secs all day (5.0-5.5 ft faces).First pulse fading on Saturday (6/18) while a new pulse hits near 1 AM with period at 17 secs and size small but building fast. Swell to be solid by sunset back up to 3 ft @ 15 secs (4-5 ft faces) and still climbing up. Swell to peak in the early morning hours of Sunday (6/19) and still solid at sunrise with swell 3.6 ft @ 14 secs (5 ft faces with best breaks to 6 ft) and holding through the early afternoon then drifting down. Decent energy to continue into Monday (6/20) with swell 3.3 ft @ 13-14 secs (4.0-4.5 ft faces) and holding. On Tuesday (6/21) swell starting to fade at 3 ft @ 13 secs (3.5-4.0 ft faces), heading down later in the day. Residuals continuing into Wednesday (6/22) with period at 12 secs and fading. Swell Direction: 167-175 degrees
South CA: Expect swell arrival starting late Saturday (6/18) with initial size pushing to 3 ft @ 15 secs (4.0-4.5 ft faces). Additional energy to be building in during the day Sunday (6/19) with underlying period to 17 secs by 6 PM and combined swell 3.3 ft @ 15 secs (4.5-5.0 ft). Swell to continue unabated Monday (6/20) into Tuesday (6/21) at a 3.3 ft @ 14 secs (4.0-4.5 ft faces), then starting to fade late Tuesday. Continued declining size expected through early Thursday (6/23) as period drops slowly to 13 secs. Swell Direction: 201-206 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival starting late Saturday (6/18) with initial size pushing to 3 ft @ 15 secs (4.0-4.5 ft faces). Additional energy to be building in during the day Sunday (6/19) with underlying period to 17 secs by 6 PM and combined swell 3.3 ft @ 15 secs (4.5-5.0 ft). Swell to continue unabated Monday (6/20) into Tuesday (6/21) at a 3.3 ft @ 14 secs (4.0-4.5 ft faces), then starting to fade late Tuesday. Continued declining size expected through late Thursday (6/23) as period drops slowly to 13 secs. Swell Direction: 201-206 degrees
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Thursdays models (6/16) indicated that beyond 72 hours in the upper levels a new very weak trough is to set up over the dateline, but it is to be so weak that no surface level manifestation of it is expected. Otherwise nothing is expected to develop that will support producing decent winds at the oceans surface.
At the surface high pressure is to continue dominating the east but a small low is forecast to develop off Japan Tuesday (6/21) tracking to the dateline through early Thursday (6/23). Winds maxing at 35-40 kts, providing a glimmer of hope for windswell for Hawaii North shores, assuming the low forms at all. No other swell producing fetch forecast.
On Thursday (6/16) beyond 72 hours out the jetstream models suggest that a new trough is to develop off the Ross Ice Shelf early Wednesday (6/22) while the previous trough in the east fades. This new trough to drift east, but it looks like the one before it in that not alot of strong wind is to be associated with it.
At the surface high pressure is to redevelop in the mid-South Pacific next Wednesday (6/22) at 1028 mbs shutting down swell generation potential there. Generally unorganized low pressure suggested under new Zealand, but no winds of note are indicated. No swell producing fetch forecast.
Details to follow...
El Nino Forecast Updated: Check out all the latest indicators to get a handle on how the Summer and Fall seasons could unfold. http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/enso/current.shtml
Big Florida Swell: A strong gale pushed off Cape Hatteras on 4/15 generating solid seas and a 70 ft rogue wave that hit a cruise ship before proceeded south to make solid waves for the Southeast US coast. Matt Kechele was there to catch it. Take a look here: http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/forecast/forecast/kechele.html
Stormsurf Weather Models Updated Again: Yes, we've been at it again this weekend getting another batch of weather models running. Global coverage is now provided for jetstream forecasts and surface pressure and winds. Zoomed in data is also available for such locations as the Mentawai Islands to Western Australia corridor, Tahiti, South America, Europe and Norwegian Sea. So now you can get local wind forecasts for these and more locations with one click. Take a look here: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu.html
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table