BUOY ROUNDUP
Thursday, June 6, 2024
:
- Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 3.5 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 2.4 ft @ 13.7 secs from 195 degrees. Water temp 79.2 (Barbers Pt), 78.8 (Pearl Harbor 233), 79.0 (Lani 239).
- Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 4.4 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 2.5 ft @ 11.7 secs from 337 degrees. Water temp 77.0 degs
- Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 3.6 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 2.7 ft @ 10.3 secs from 328 degrees. Water temp 77.2 degs
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.3 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 2.3 ft @ 15.2 secs from 222 degrees. Wind southeast at 2-4 kts. Water temperature 62.6 degs, 55.2 (Harvest 071), 62.6 (Topanga 103), 64.0 (Long Beach 215), 64.2 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 64.8 (Del Mar 153), 64.6 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 7.3 ft @ 14.7 secs from 298 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 2.6 ft @ 15.4 secs from 275 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.2 ft @ 15.3 secs from 214 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 2.4 ft @ 15.7 secs from 218 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.2 ft @ 15.8 secs from 222 degrees. Water temperature was 63.0 degrees (Imperial Beach).
- Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 14.7 ft @ 14.3 secs with northwest swell 9.8 ft @ 13.4 secs from 306 degrees burying any southern hemi swell. Wind northwest at 20-23 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and NW 11-13 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801583) and WSW at 8 kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 49.3 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 50.4 (San Francisco 46026), 55.6 (SF Bar 142), 54.3 (1801583) and 52.3 (Monterey Bay 46092).
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (6/4) in North and Central CA waves were 2-3 ft overhead on the sets and somewhat lined up and pretty warbled from local northwest wind early. Protected breaks were head high to 1 ft overhead and super lined up and closed out with some modest warble on top. At Santa Cruz surf was 1 ft overhead and lined up but real mushed with some southerly texture on the surface looking much like winter. In Southern California/Ventura waves were chest to shoulder high and lined up with good form and clean though a bit soft. Central Orange County had waves at waist to chest high on the sets and reasonably lined up with decent form but real inconsistent and clean. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had set waves at up to 2 ft overhead and super lined up with good to great form and clean conditions with many waves per set. North San Diego had sets at head high and lined up with decent form bordering on closed out and clean. Oahu's North Shore had some waist to near chest high sets and lined up when they came and clean but soft. The South Shore had sets at head high and sometimes more and lined up and real clean with good form. The East Shore was getting east windswell at thigh to waist high and clean with no real wind early.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
Meteorological Overview
On Thursday (6/6) California was getting respectable late season swell from a solid gale that developed in the Gulf of Alaska Sun-Mon (6/3) with up to 30 ft seas aimed east with minimal sideband swell still pushing into Hawaii. Southern hemi swell was also hitting California and Hawaii from a gale that developed under New Zealand lifting well north Sat-Sun (5/26) producing 26-28 ft seas aimed northeast with a second pulse on Mon (5/27) producing a tiny area of 33 ft seas aimed northeast. Then on Sun-Mon (6/3) a gale developed while lifting northeast from under New Zealand with 32 ft seas fading to 28 ft. And yet another system is forecast developing under New Zealand on Fri (6/7) lifting well north while building Sat (6/8) with up to 38 ft seas over a solid area before fading Sun (6/9) over the Central South Pacific. A nice little pattern is setting up. But after that things are forecast to settle down.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours North Pacific Overview
Surface Analysis
On Thursday (6/6) swell from a gale previously in the Gulf is impacting the US West Coast (See Gulf Gale below). .
Over the next 72 hours another gale is forecast developing off the Pacific Northwest on Thurs AM (6/6) producing 35 kts northwest winds lifting northeast and trying to get some traction. In the evening northwest winds to build to 45-50 kts over a small area with seas building from 27 ft at 39.5N 149.25w aimed east and southeast. On Fri AM (6/7) the gale is to be lifting northeast with 40 kt northwest winds and seas 27 ft at 42N 144.25W aimed east. In the evening northwest winds hold at 35-40 kts as the gale lifts north more with seas fading from 23 ft at 45.5N 144W aimed east and southeast. West fetch fading Sat AM (6/8) from 30 kts with seas fading from 21 ft at 48.5N 140.75W aimed east. Something to monitor.
North CA: Rough data suggest swell arrival on on Sun (6/9) building to 5.0 ft @ 13 secs (6.5 ft) from 286-291 degrees
Gulf Gale
On Sun AM (6/2) a gale developed over the Northwestern Gulf producing 40 kt west winds and seas building from 20 ft. In the evening northwest winds built to 50 kts over a modest area with seas 26 ft at 47.5N 165.25W aimed east. On Mon AM (6/3) northwest winds were fading from 45 kts with seas up to 30 ft at 48.25N 155.25W aimed southeast. Fetch was over the Eastern Gulf in the evening with west winds 35+ kts and seas 28 ft at 48N 145.75W aimed east and southeast. On Tues AM (6/4) fetch was fading from 30 kts from the west a bit off the Pacific Northwest with seas fading from 25 ft at 50.25N 138.5W aimed east and southeast. This system to be gone after that.
North CA: Swell fading Thurs AM (6/6) from 4.8 ft @ 13 secs early (6.0 ft). Local northwest windswell in the mix too. Swell Direction: 305-307 degrees
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest were being tracked.
California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).
- Fri AM (6/7) a weak pressure gradient holds along the NOrth Ca coast with low pressure building in the Gulf producing northwest winds 20+ kts limited to Cape Mendocino with 10 kt northwest winds over Central CA early. In the afternoon the gradient collapses with northwest winds 15+ kts limited to North CA with northwest winds 5 kts for Central CA. No windswell forecast.
- Sat AM (6/8) the gradient falls south some but weak with northwest winds 15-20 kts for North CA and 10+ kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon the gradient builds as low pressure dissipates off the US West Coast with northwest winds 20-25 kts over a very shallow area for all of North CA and northwest winds 15 kts for Central CA. Minimal windswell and very raw and weak.
- Sun AM (6/9) northwest winds build in coverage at 20-25 kts for all of North CA and 10 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon the gradient builds some with northwest winds 25 kts for North CA and 20-25 kts for all of Central CA. Raw short period windswell building.
- Mon AM (6/10) the gradient becomes focused on North CA with northwest winds 25 kts and northwest winds 10 kts nearshore from Bodega Bay southward but 15-20 kts well off the coast of Central CA. In the afternoon the gradient is limited to North CA with northwest winds 20-25 kts there and northwest winds 5-10 kts south of there if not turning to an eddy flow (south winds). Limited northwest windswell possible.
- Tues AM (6/11) northwest winds to be 25-30 for North CA but light northwest winds 10 kts for Pt Reyes southward. More of the same in the afternoon. Windswell holding.
- Wed AM (6/12) the gradient builds with northwest winds 30 kts for all of North CA and northwest winds 10 kts for Central CA. No change in the afternoon. Windswell building.
- Thurs AM (6/13) northwest winds hold at 25-30 kts for North CA and 20 kts for all of Central CA. Windswell building more.
Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 0, 0, 0 and 0 inches.
Temperatures for the intersection of Tioga Pass Road and the John Muir Trail (Toulome Meadows - 8700 ft): Freeze Level generally 14,000 ft or higher falling to 9.000 ft on 6/15. Temps at the intersection generally 55-60 degrees steady falling to 45 degs Sat 6/15.
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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).
South Pacific
Overview
Jetstream
On Thursday AM (6/6) the jet was split directly over New Zealand but consolidated just east of there with the influential southern branch lifting hard just east of New Zealand merging with the northern branch but winds were weak at 90 kts forming a broad trough just east of New Zealand offering only limited support for gale formation. Over the next 72 hours this pattern is to strengthen starting Fri (6/7) with winds building to 120 kts starting to support gale formation just southeast of New Zealand holding into Sun (6/9) then weakening and pinching off no longer supporting gale formation by the evening. Beyond 72 hours starting Mon (6/10) with the jet splitting and the southern branch running east down at 63S with no troughs forecast and if anything ridging south into Antarctica on Wed (6/12) actively suppressing gale formation into Thurs (6/13). But not a bad pattern prior to that.
Surface Analysis
On Thursday AM (6/6) swell from the first in a series of gales that developed southeast of New Zealand was hitting Hawaii and CA (see Weak 1st New Zealand Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours another gale developed under New Zealand and is starting to propagate north (see 2nd New Zealand Gale below).
Weak 1st New Zealand Gale
A gale started developing under New Zealand Fri AM (5/24) producing 35 kt southwest winds and seas 26 ft at 58S 160E aimed northeast. In the evening fetch was building slightly while lifting north at 35-40 kts with seas 27 ft at 53.25S 168E. On Sat AM (5/25) fetch was 35-40 kts from the southwest positioned just southeast of New Zealand with seas building to 28 ft at 48.5S 171.75E aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds faded to 35 kts lifting north with seas 27 ft at 45.75S 175.75E aimed north-northeast. On Sun AM (5/26) southwest winds were lifting northeast at 35 kts with seas fading from 26 ft at 40.5S 176.5W aimed northeast. In the evening secondary southwest fetch developed southeast of the previous fetch and just east of New Zealand too with southwesterly winds at 45 kts and seas 27 ft at 52.5S 177.75W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (5/27) fetch built at 50 kts from the southwest with seas 33 ft at 52.75S 172.25W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch was tracking east at 45 kts with seas fading from 31 ft at 50.25S 165.25W aimed northeast. Fetch was falling east-southeast Tues AM (5/28) at 40 kts with seas 29 ft at 51S 156.75W aimed east. Fetch dissipating after that. Small swell is possible for Hawaii and the US West Coast.
Oahu: Secondary swell fading on Thurs (6/6) from 2.3 ft @ 13 secs early (3.0 ft). Minor reinforcement arrive Fri (6/7) with swell rebuilding to 2.3 ft @ 14-15 secs mid-AM (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell fading Sat (6/8) from 2.3 ft @ 13 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Dribbles on Sun (6/9) fading from 1.8 ft @ 12-13 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 200 moving to 189 degrees
Southern CA: Swell holds on Thurs (6/6) at 2.0 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Fri (6/7) from 2.0 ft @ 14 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading on Sat (6/8) from 2.0 ft @ 14 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 219 degrees moving to 210 degrees
North CA: Swell holds on Thurs (6/6) at 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Fri (6/7) from 2.0 ft @ 14 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading on Sat (6/8) from 2.1 ft @ 14 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Dribbles on Sun (6/9) fading from 2.1 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 218 degrees moving to 210 degrees
2nd New Zealand Gale
On Sat PM (6/1) a gale developing south of the Tasman Sea producing 40 kt west winds and seas building from 30 ft at 54.25S 151.5E aimed east-northeast. On Sun AM (6/2) the gale tracked east while building with 45 kts southwest winds under New Zealand with seas 31 ft at 56S 164E aimed east-northeast. In the evening fetch was lifting north-northeast at 40 kts with seas 31 ft at 52.25S 175.25E aimed northeast. On Mon AM (6/3) south winds were 35 kts pushing north just off the coast of Central New Zealand with seas 29 ft at 45.25S 176.25W aimed northeast but partially obstructed by Chatham Island. South fetch was fading from 35 kts in the evening with seas 25 ft at 39.5S 171.25W aimed northeast. The gael faded out from there. Swell is pushing northeast.
Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Sun (6/9) building to 2.9 ft @ 17 secs later (4.5 ft). Swell peaking on Mon (6/10) at 3.1 ft @ 15 secs early (4.5-5.0 ft). Swell fading Tues (6/11) from 2.8 ft @ 13-14 secs early (3.5-4.0 ft). Residuals on Wed (6/12) fading from 2.4 ft @ 13 secs (3.0 ft) early. Dribbles on Thurs (6/13) fading from 2.1 ft @ 12 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 192 degrees
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (6/12) building to 1.5 ft @ 17 secs mid-day (2.5 ft). Swell builds on Thurs (6/13) at 2.0 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft) mid-day. Swell fades some on Fri (6/14) from 1.9 ft @ 14 secs early (2.5 ft). Residuals on Sat (6/15) fading from 1.5 ft @ 14 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 215-216 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (6/12) building to 1.8 ft @ 17 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell builds on Thurs (6/13) at 2.1 ft @ 16 secs (3.0-3.5 ft) mid-day. Swell fades some on Fri (6/14) from 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Residuals on Sat (6/15) fading from 1.6 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 214-215 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future North Pacific Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.
South Pacific
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.
MJO/ENSO Forecast La Nina Building - NINO3.4 Temps Falling to Neutral
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Fading with Cool Water Starting to Erupt
9 Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But now cold water has traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific and is starting to erupt off the coast of Ecuador with the remaining warm pool created by El Nino starting to dissipate in the East Equatorial Pacific. Regardless, the atmosphere is still in El Nino mode and will continue from previous momentum while slowly fading through Fall of 2024.
MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).
Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST |
Winter 2023 = 7.7 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells) |
Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 6 Active MJO's produced 6 Kelvin Waves over early to mid 2023 with Kelvin Wave #7 in August building over the West Pacific and the 4th, 5th and 6th backed up off Ecuador now (10/20/23). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias moving over California now filling the Pacific. We are now under an El Nino status. We are moving into a period of enhanced storm production (starting late Sept 2023) and beyond, getting intense come late Fall and early Winter. This should result in an above normal level of swells, with swells being longer than normal duration from here forward as El Nino gets a stronger footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is a well above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration (i.e 15 significant class swells perhaps). Last year there were 0 and year before 5 or less.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (6/5) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and light west over the Central Pacific and neutral over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (6/6) Today a mix of weak east and west anomalies were filling the KWGA. The forecast suggests generally weak east anomalies to develop filling the 6/8 through the end of the model run on on 6/19.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
- MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (6/3) A neutral MJO was over the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates a neutral pattern holding turning decidedly Inactive (dry air) on day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model depicts a completely neutral pattern with no MJO signal forecast for the next 15 days.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (6/5) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was very weak over the Central Maritime Continent today. The statistical model indicates it is to build to moderate strength over the Atlantic 15 days out split between very weak to modest status. The dynamic model indicates it moving to the same location but very weak.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (6/5) A near neutral MJO was indicated today. No change is forecast for the next 40 days through 7/15.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/5) Today a very weak Active MJO was indicated just east of the KWGA with weak west anomalies in play. The forecast indicates a neutral MJO forecast with east anomalies building to modest strength 6/7-6/15 then fading with modest west anomalies filling the KWGA 6/16-6/26. After that modest east anomalies to set up on the dateline holding 6/27 through the end of the model run on 7/3.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/6) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
A near neutral MJO was over the KWGA today but with weak west anomalies filling most of the KWGA. A brief period of east anomalies are forecast 6/10-6/15 then steady weak west anomalies are forecast 6/16 through the end of the model run over the Western KWGA but east anomalies steadily building in the East Pacific reaching the dateline on 7/16 then slowly growing to the west over the coming months filling 80% of the KWGA at the end of the model run on 9/3. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure is over the Indian Ocean (starting 4/28) and is to be building there through the end of the model run with 2 contours indicated. The high pressure bias started to develop in the Pacific on the dateline 5/4 and is to be holding , then building quickly east on 7/14 filling the bulk of the KWGA to California if not the whole of the Pacific beyond. La Nina is here and building.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (6/6) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm was steady at 178E today. The 29 degree isotherm was holding at 166W. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 152W. The 24 degree isotherm no longer extended the whole way across the Pacific reaching east to only 119W. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were limited to points west of 144W and moving west. El Nino is long gone. A large pool of cold anomalies at up to -5 degs were filling the entire subsurface East Pacific. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 5/28 indicates the same thing. Cold water was filling the entire equatorial Pacific thermocline. La Nina is here. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (5/28) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 to -15 cms east of 170W with a broad pocket at -15 cms between 85W and 125W. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (5/28) cold water has been filling the Equatorial Pacific since early March with temps currently -0.5 to -2.0 degs from Ecuador to 145W. A clear La Nina pattern is in play.
Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (6/5) The latest images depict a clear La Nina cool pool building on the equator from Ecuador west to the dateline. Residual warm anomalies from the remnants of El Nino were north and south of it across the Pacific. We are in a transitional phase moving from El Nino to La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (6/5): Water temps were falling in pockets on the equator from Ecuador west over the Galapagos out to 140W. A clear La Nina anvil is developing.
Hi-res Overview: (6/5) Cooler than normal waters are filling the Equatorial Pacific from Peru up to Ecuador then west out to 140W. Remnant warm water from El Nino was over the rest of the equatorial Pacific from 20N to 20S. The classic El Nino tongue of warm water is still present but being weakened by a building La Nina cool stream tearing through its heart.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/6) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were falling slightly at -1.000. But the trend is steadily downward from at -1.105 (5/28), -1.014 (5/16) rising to +0.184 degrees (5/2) after falling to -0.843 (4/21) and -0.565 on 4/1 and has been below 0 since 3/19.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/6) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were steady at +0.102 but steady at -0.179 (5/28) falling below the zero mark on 5/20. They had been steady at +0.095 after rising to +0.831 degs on 4/21 after falling to +0.5 degs on 4/15 and then falling from +1.120 (4/3) degrees. Previously temps have been in the +1.2 deg range since 3/11. Temps were at +1.2 degs or higher since 1/13. Temps had been in the +1.5 range 11/19-1/12.
Weekly OISST are steadily falling at +0.1 (week of 5/29) +0.2 degs (5/15 and 5/22), +0.3 (5/8), +0.5 (5/1), +0.8 (4/24), +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data is falling from +1.72 Oct, +2.02 Nov, +2.02 Dec and +1.82 Jan and +1.52 Feb, +1.13 March, +0.79 April, +0.32 May.
3 Month ONI (centered) 3 month period is +0.75 MAM, +1.15 FMA, +1.49 JFM, 1.79 for DJF and +1.95 ft for NDJ (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.92 OND . All others were less than that.
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CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb then down to +0.75 degs mid-April and +0.25 mid May.
Forecast (6/6) - Temps to fall to 0.0 mid-June and -0.1 mid-July and -1.20 degs in Nov/Dec 2024. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same thing but with temps falling to only -1.00 degs. According to this version of the model we are moving to a weak to moderate La Nina.
IRI Consensus Plume: The May 20, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +0.117 degs today and its the 13th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to fall steadily from here forward down to -0.338 in July (3 month running mean) then fading from there down to -0.741 in Oct and holding there. This is an upgrade with temps previously forecast down to -0.944 (per the April model run). The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.893 (-1.075 previous run) in Sept and the Statistic down to -0.631 in Oct (-0.927 previous run).
See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (6/6) the Daily Index was falling hard at -26.92 today. The daily SOI turned mostly positive on 2/20/24 after a 28 day negative peaking down at -46.54 on 2/9. It was positive and up to +31.61 on 1/6/24 and had been rising the previous 10 days. It had been effectively neutral 11/20/23 through 1/10/24. This was not consistent with El Nino. Previously it was negative for 29 days (7/14-8/11) with a peak down to -37.30 on 7/25 and negative previously to 7/12 with peaks down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12.
The 30 day average was falling at +0.12. Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was steady at -1.66. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
El Nino is collapsing
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling to -1.57 in March 2024 and -2.129 in April and now -2.97 in May). Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video. - - - NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131 Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/ Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator. Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table |