BUOY ROUNDUP
Tuesday, April 16, 2024 :

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (4/16) in North and Central CA waves were waist to chest high and somewhat lined up and clean but with some warble running through it with some occasional sections. Protected breaks were chest to shoulder high and lined up but pretty closed out and a bit warbled though local wind was calm. At Santa Cruz surf was waist to chest high and fairly lined up and clean but in consistent. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh to waist high and lined up but mushed and soft with clean conditions. Central Orange County had waves at waist high and somewhat lined up with decent form but real soft and mushed but with no wind and clean conditions. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had waves at waist to maybe chest high on the peaks and lined up when they came and fairly clean but with some northwest warble in the water. North San Diego had waves at up to chest high on the sets and lined up and fairly clean but with some light texture on top. Oahu's North Shore had waves at head high to 1 ft overhead but a bit warbled and ill formed though local wind was light early. The South Shore had waves at thigh to waist high on the sets and somewhat lined up but soft with some warbled in the water though local winds was near calm early. The East Shore was getting northerly windswell at chest high and clean with light west wind.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (4/16) the North Shore of Hawaii was getting fairly raw windswell from a cutoff low developed northwest of Hawaii on Thurs-Fri (4/12) with 29 ft seas aimed south mostly bypassing Hawaii but then tracked east and was north of the Islands with seas to 16 ft. California was getting the first tease of southern hemi swell from a small gale that developed while tracking east under New Zealand Sat-Sun (4/7) with up to 33 ft seas aimed east. And small swell from it was also still hitting the South Shores of the Hawaiian Islands. Of more interest is a gale that developed in the upper reaches of the Southeast Pacific Mon-Wed (4/10) generating 33-34 ft seas aimed due north. Swell is radiating towards mostly California. And another one developed while tracking under New Zealand into the Central South Pacific Wed-Thurs (4/11) with 35-40 ft seas aimed east. A small system is forecast developing under New Zealand Tues-Wed (4/17) with 31 ft seas aimed mostly east. Doubtful any swell to result. Then nothing else is forecast after that. But the seasonal transition from Winter towards Summer appears to be underway.

See all the details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (4/16) the jet was completely split from Japan across the North Pacific with winds in the influential northern branch pushing off Kamchatka falling southeast then turning east over 45-50N latitude line with winds 100-120 kts the whole way into the Canada-US border with no real troughs indicated offering no support for gale formation. Over the next 72 hours a trough is to develop over the Eastern Aleutians falling southeast Tues-Fri (4/19) being fed up to 130-140 kts winds possibly supporting gale formation over the Northwestern Gulf. Beyond 72 hours starting Sat (4/21) that trough is to continue weakly circulating in the Northern Gulf through Tues (4/23) but only weak offering nothing. And another trough is forecast developing off Japan on Fri (4/19) being fed by 130 kts winds pushing east over the dateline on Mon (4/22) with winds to 140 kts and into the Gulf on Tues (4/23) offering some hope with another trough of equal strength right behind it pushing off Japan tracking east offering yet more hope. But in general the Inactive Phase of the MJO is integrating with the arrival of Spring trying to sealing off the end of the Winter surf season for the North Pacific.

Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (4/16) swell was hitting Hawaii originating from a cutoff low previously north and northwest of Hawaii (see Hawaii Cutoff Low below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast though the jetstream seems to be offering some support in the upper levels of the atmosphere. That is a typical pattern for the Spring.

Hawaii Cutoff Low
A cutoff low developing northwest of Hawaii on Thurs AM (4/11) with 40-45 kt northeast winds and seas 25 ft at 29N 169W but not aimed at the Hawaiian Islands. In the evening winds held position at 35-40 kts from the northeast with seas 27 ft at 30.5N 171.5W aimed southwest again not really targeting Hawaii. The gale held position Fri AM (4/12) with northeast winds 35 kts and seas 23 ft at 32N 173.5W aimed south still bypassing Hawaii. In the evening fetch was fading from 30-35 ks with seas 21 ft at 33.75N 173.25W aimed southwest and offering nothing. The gale is to continue circulating while fading to low pressure status into Sun AM (4/14) west of the Islands offering nothing.

But on Sun PM (4/14) the low was drifting northeast producing north winds at 30 kts with seas to 19 ft at 32N 167W aimed south possibly setting up windswell radiating towards the Islands. On Mon AM (4/15) north winds was 30 kts 700 nmiles north-northwest of Oahu with seas 17 ft at 29N 166W aimed south offering some potential. Fetch fading there in the evening. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Swell peaking Tues AM (4/16) at 6.3 ft @ 12 secs (7.0 ft). Residuals Wed AM (4/17) fading from 5.6 ft @ 10-11 secs (5.5 ft). Dribbles on Thurs (4/18) fading from 4.5 ft @ 10-11 secs (4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 320 moving to 005 degrees

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest were being tracked.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 0, 0, 0 and 0 inches.

Freeze Level for Tahoe Ski Resorts: Freeze Level 10.500 ft today building to 12,000 ft starting 4/20 and building more solid at that range beyond.

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Tues AM (4/16) tiny swell from a gale that developed under New Zealand was hitting Hawaii and bound for California (see New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours swell from a gale that developed in the Southeast Pacific is to be radiating north hitting Hawaii and CA (see Southeast Pacific Gale below).

Perhaps another gale is to track east under New Zealand starting Tues AM (4/16) with a small area of west winds at 40+ kts and seas 28 over a tiny area at 51.75S 162.5E aimed east. In the evening west winds to be 45 kts with seas 31 ft at 53.5S 177.5E aimed east. Fetch falling southeast Wed AM (4/17) at 40 kts with seas 27 ft at 54.5S 172.25W aimed east. Something to monitor.

New Zealand Gale
A gale was developing while push east under New Zealand on Sat AM (4/6) with 35-40 kt west winds and seas 29 ft at 60.5S 151.25E aimed east. In the evening 40-45 kt west winds were building in coverage with seas building to 30 ft at 62.25S 165.75E aimed east. On Sun AM (4/7) southwest fetch was fading from 35-40 kts while lifting northeast with seas 32 ft at 61.5S 175.75E aimed east-northeast. In the evening a broad fetch of southwest winds at 35 kts remained producing 26 ft seas aimed due northeast at 59.25S 171.5W aimed east-northeast. The gale was fading Mon AM (4/8) over the deep South Central Pacific while lifting hard northeast with southwest winds 30-35 kts and seas 25 ft at 57S 157W aimed northeast. Small swell is possible mainly for CA.

Southern CA: Swell continues on Tues (4/16) at 1.3 ft @ 17-18 secs (2.0-2.5 ft) but possibly being overrun by more local southerly swell. Swell Direction: 211 degrees

North CA: Swell continues on Tues (4/16) at 1.4 ft @ 17-18 secs (2.0-2.5 ft) but possibly being overrun by more local southerly swell. Swell Direction: 210 degrees

Southeast Pacific Gale
A gale developed in the upper reaches of the Southeast Pacific on Mon PM (4/8) generating a fairly broad fetch of south winds at 35 kts with seas building from 25 ft at 51S 147W aimed northeast. On Tues AM (4/9) south winds built to 45 kts over a solid area aimed due north with seas building to 29 ft at 49S 140W aimed north. In the evening south winds were fading in coverage from 40- 45 kts with seas 34 ft at 46S 138W aimed due north. Fetch faded on Wed AM (4/10) from 30-35 kts and seas fading from 30 ft at 45S 135W aimed due north. In the evening south fetch was fading from 25-30 kts with seas 25 ft at 40S 130W aimed northeast. Something to monitor given this gales far north position and aim directly at California.

Hawaii: On Tues (4/16) swell building to 1.6 ft @15 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading Wed (4/17) from 1.5 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 175-180 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (4/16) building to 2.1 ft @ 18-19 secs later (4.0 ft). Swell building through the day Wed (4/17) to 2.7 ft @ 16-17 secs later (4.5 ft). Swell fading Thurs AM (4/18) from 2.9 ft @ 15-16 secs early (4.5 ft). Swell fading on Fri (4/19) from 2.4 ft @ 14-15 secs early (3.5 ft). Residuals on Sat (4/20) fading from 2.0 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 193 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (4/16) building to 1.6 ft @ 19 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell building through the day Wed (4/17) to 2.6 ft @ 17 secs later (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell peaking Thurs AM (4/18) from 2.8 ft @ 16 secs early (4.5 ft). Swell fading on Fri (4/19) from 2.5 ft @ 14-15 secs early (3.5 ft). Residuals on Sat (4/20) fading from 2.3 ft @ 13-14 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 190 degrees

Another New Zealand Gale
On Tues AM (4/9) a storm was tracking east under the Tasman Sea with west winds 50 kts ands seas 39 ft at 55.75S 148E aimed east. In the evening the gale was pushing under New Zealand with 45 kt west winds and seas 35 ft at 57.25W 159E aimed east. On Wed AM (4/10) the gale tracked east-southeast with 40 kt west winds and seas 32 ft at 60S 170E aimed east. On Wed PM (4/10) additional fetch developed over the same general area at 55 kts from the west producing seas 35 ft at 62.25S 178.25W aimed east and southeast. Fetch was pushing east on Thurs AM (4/11) at 50 kts from the east with seas 41 ft over a tiny area at 65.5S 164.25W aimed east. In the evening fetch was racing east at 35-40 kts with seas 35 ft at 65.5S 148W aimed east. Fetch fading Fri AM (4/12) at 35 kts but over a broad area from the southwest with seas 31 ft at 62S 138.25W aimed east. Fetch was fading in the evening from 30 kts from the southwest with seas fading from 29 ft at 59.5S 128.75W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Wed (4/17) building to 1.2 ft @ 17 secs later(2.0 ft). Swell building on Thurs (4/18) to 1.6 ft @ 15-16 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell fading Fri AM (4/19) from 1.5 ft @ 15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft) early. Residuals on Sat AM (4/20) fading from 1.3 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.0 ft). Dribbles on Sun AM (4/21) fading from 1.2 ft @ 14-15 secs early (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 210-215 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on at sunset on Fri (4/19) building to 1.1 ft @ 19-20 secs late (2.0 ft). Swell building Sat (4/20) to 1.6 ft @ 18 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell peaking on Sun (4/21) at 2.0 ft @ 16-17 secs mid-day (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell holding Mon (4/22) at 2.0 ft @ 15-16 secs early (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Tues (4/23) from 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell Direction:200 degrees moving to 195 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (4/20) to 1.4 ft @ 19 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell peaking on Sun (4/21) at 1.7 ft @ 17 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell holding Mon (4/22) at 1.8 ft @ 15-16 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading on Tues (4/23) from 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction:200 degrees moving to 195 degrees

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a low pressure system is forecast developing in the Northwestern Gulf Wed PM (4/17) producing northwest winds at 30 kts with seas 17 ft at 49N 163W aimed southeast. More of the same expected Thurs AM (4/18) with seas 17 ft at 49N 163W aimed southeast. The gale to ease east some in the evening with 30 kt northwest winds and seas 15 ft at 47N 158W aimed southeast. More of the same on Fri AM (4/19) with northwest winds at 30+ kts over the Northwestern Gulf with seas 14 ft at 43N 155W aimed east and of no interest. The gale to fade from there. Low odds of windswell for Hawaii and North CA.

On Mon AM (4/19) a gale is forecast pushing off Japan with northwest winds at 45 kts then lifting northeast in the evening but still circulating off the North Kuril's Tues AM with 40 kts west winds. Something to monitor but doubtful this will even form.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours and relatively calm pattern is forecast for the South Pacific.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

La Nina Arrives
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Starting to Fade
9 Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But now cold water has traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific and is starting to erupt off the coast of Ecuador with the remaining warm pool created by El Nino starting to dissipate in the East Equatorial Pacific. Regardless, the atmosphere is still in El Nino mode and will continue from previous momentum while slowly fading through Fall of 2024.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 6 Active MJO's produced 6 Kelvin Waves over early to mid 2023 with Kelvin Wave #7 in August building over the West Pacific and the 4th, 5th and 6th backed up off Ecuador now (10/20/23). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias moving over California now filling the Pacific. We are now under an El Nino status. We are moving into a period of enhanced storm production (starting late Sept 2023) and beyond, getting intense come late Fall and early Winter. This should result in an above normal level of swells, with swells being longer than normal duration from here forward as El Nino gets a stronger footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is a well above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration (i.e 15 significant class swells perhaps). Last year there were 0 and year before 5 or less.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (4/15) 5 day average winds were strong east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. Anomalies were modest east over the East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and weak west over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (4/15) Today a mix of modest east and west anomalies with filling the KWGA today. The forecast indicates mostly moderate east anomalies moving east through the KWGA and holding through 4/25 then weaker through the end of the model run on 4/31. Perhaps some west anomalies to appear on the dateline 4/28 through the end of the model run.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (4/16) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was rebuilding some to the east at 175W. The 28 deg isotherm line was gone east of 150W. The 24 degree isotherm extended the whole way across the Pacific and was shallow but stable in the east at 25m deep. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +2 degs while getting compressed to the surface fast under the East Pacific at 28m deep from Ecuador west to 133W and mainly just the result of suppressed trades driven by the Active Phase of the MJO fading there. Neutral to +1 deg anomalies or less were deeper from the dateline west. El Nino is gone subsurface. A large pool of cold anomalies at -4 degs were down at 120m deep at 155W reaching east and weaker to a point along Ecuador at -1 degs and filling the entire Equatorial Pacific. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 4/3 indicates cold water was in control from Ecuador west to 125W at the surface and at depth to 160E. The last remnant warm surface water from El Nino was getting pushed west by trades starting at 120W and points west of there. Cold water was filling the entire equatorial Pacific thermocline below it. La Nina is developing. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (4/8) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 to -10 cms over the entire equatorial Pacific. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (4/8) cold water was filling the Equatorial Pacific and -0.5 to -1.5 degs over the entire equatorial Pacific. El Nino is gone from the subsurface perspective and now clearly turning to La Nina.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (4/15) The latest images depict a moderate warm stream from Ecuador uniformly covering the area on the equator west to 160W except with a developing cooler tongue 1 degree north and south of the equator from Ecuador to 140W and 1 cool pocket along the coast of Ecuador. There is still a solid El Nino signal present but with the beginnings of a cold La Nina signal are starting to emerge from the depths up to the oceans surface along Ecuador.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (4/15): Water temps were falling over the entire equatorial Pacific strongest near 120W. No meaningful warming was indicated. A warming trend that has been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 2022 was fading and a cooling pattern is becoming evident.
Hi-res Overview: (4/15) Warmer than normal waters are filling the Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to the dateline with a cool tongue developing while extending west from the coast of Ecuador. The classic El Nino tongue of warm water is still present but being weakened by a building La Nina signal.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/16) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were falling again at -0.530 after rising slightly at -0.151 4/13 after falling to -0.565 on 4/1 and have been below 0 since 3/19.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/16) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were falling at +0.514 degs falling from +1.120 (4/3) degrees. Previously temps have been in the +1.2 deg range since 3/11. Temps were at +1.2 degs or higher since 1/13. Temps had been in the +1.5 range 11/19-1/12. Weekly OISST are +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1). Monthly Data is +1.72 Oct, +2.02 Nov, +2.02 Dec and +1.82 Jan and +1.52 Feb, +1.15 March. The 3 month ONI is +1.8 for the 3 month period DJF and +2.0 ft for NDJ (bare minimal Super El Nino status). All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan and +1.65 in Feb.
Forecast (4/13) - Temps fell to +1.0 degs mid-April, 0.0 mid-May and -2.05 degs in Nov/Dec 2024. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same thing but with temps falling to only -1.5 degs. According to this version of the model we are past the peak of a strong El Nino.
IRI Consensus Plume: The March 19, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +0.760 degs today and its the 11th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to fall steadily from here forward down to +0.326 in April (that's a 3 months running mean) then fading from there down to -1.011 in Sept and holding there. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -1.097 in Sept and the Statistic down to -1.021 in Oct.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (4/16) the Daily Index was falling at -12.91 today. The daily SOI turned mostly positive on 2/20 after a 28 day negative peaking down at -46.54 on 2/9. It was positive and up to +31.61 on 1/6 and had been rising the previous 10 days. It had been effectively neutral 11/20/23 through 1/10/24. This was not consistent with El Nino. Previously it was negative for 29 days (7/14-8/11) with a peak down to -37.30 on 7/25 and negative previously to 7/12 with peaks down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12.
The 30 day average was falling some at -5.10, Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was falling some at -6.84. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
El Nino is collapsing

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/19 and hard negative in 10/21-10/23 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/23-2/24 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table