BUOY ROUNDUP
Tuesday, April 9, 2024 :

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (4/9) in North and Central CA waves were waist to chest high and warbled and mushed with poor form coming from the northwest. Protected breaks were waist high and warbled with poor form and soft but fairly clean early. At Santa Cruz surf was waist high or so on the sets and weakly lined up with decent form and very soft but fairly clean. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh high on the sets and weakly lined up and soft but fairly clean but with some warble in the water. Central Orange County had waves at waist high if not a little more on the sets and somewhat lined up with decent form and clean but very soft. South Orange County's best summertime breaks were thigh high and mushed and weakly lined up and fairly clean and not very rideable. North San Diego had waves at up to maybe waist high and weakly lined up and soft with intermixed warble and marginal form. Oahu's North Shore had waves at shoulder to head high and reasonably lined up with decent form and fairly clean conditions at top breaks. The South Shore had waves at thigh high or so on the sets and weakly lined up with decent form but soft and clean. The East Shore was getting east trade wind windswell at chest high and chopped from solid east-southeasterly trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (4/9) California and Hawaii were getting no defined swell of interest other than locally generated windswell. A small gale developed while tracking east over the North Dateline Region to the Western Gulf Fri-Sun (4/7) with 34-37 ft seas aimed east. Small swell is poised for California. A cutoff low is forecast developing northwest of Hawaii on Thurs-Fri (4/12) with 28 ft seas aimed south bypassing Hawaii to the west. But it might redevelop north of the Islands Mon-Tues (4/16) with 27 ft seas aimed south targeting Hawaii well with luck. And local low pressure is forecast off North and Central CA Sat-Sun (4/14) perhaps generating raw local windswell. But in general a pretty quiet pattern is set up for the North Pacific as it transitions to a Summertime mode. Down south a gale developed in the deep Southeast Pacific Wed-Thurs (4/4) with 31 ft seas aimed decently northeast. Small swell for the weekend in CA. And another small one developed while tracking east under New Zealand Sat-Sun (4/7) with up to 33 ft seas aimed east. Another is forecast developing in the upper reaches of the Southeast Pacific Mon-Wed (4/10) generating 34 ft seas aimed due north. And perhaps another one is to develop under New Zealand on Wed-Thurs (4/11) with 35-40 ft seas aimed east. The seasonal transition from Winter towards Summer appears to be underway.

See all the details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (4/9) the jet was completely split from Japan across the North Pacific only consolidating momentarily once the jet pushed inland over Central CA with winds in the influential northern branch ridging north of the Aleutians off Kamchatka then falling into a weak trough over the Northwestern Gulf offering limited support for low pressure development before tracking east into the Pacific Northwest. Over the next 72 hours the trough in the Gulf is to fall south and get pinched off retrograding with it's apex over the dateline on Wed (4/10) then getting cut off later Thurs (4/11) offering low pressure development there. Beyond 72 hours a backdoor trough is forecast developing off the Pacific Northwest on Thurs (4/11) falling south before pushing inland over North CA on Sun (4/14) likely supporting low pressure development. And maybe another weak pinched trough to form over the Northwestern Gulf on Sun-Mon (4/15) supportive of low pressure development before becoming totally cut off on Tues (4/16). At that time the jet is to be falling south west of the dateline forming yet another weak trough then ridging hard north on the dateline and pushing up into the Bering Sea before falling south down the US West Coast on Tues (4/16) likely only offering weather there. No real meaningful troughs are forecast affected by the Inactive Phase of the MJO destructively integrating with of the arrival of Springtime high pressure.

Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (4/9) locally generated windswell was hitting California and Hawaii. Swell from a gale

Over the next 72 hours no other swell producing weather systems are forecast.

A cutoff low is forecast developing well west of Hawaii on Thurs AM (4/11) with 35-40 kts northwest winds and seas 25 ft at 29N 170W but not aimed at the Hawaiian Islands. In the evening winds to hold at 35-40 kts from the northeast with seas 27 ft at 31N 172.5W aimed southwest again not really targeting Hawaii. The gale to only track further west on Fri (4/12) offering nothing.

North Dateline Gale
A gale developed while approaching the the North Dateline region from the southwest on Fri AM (4/5) with 45 kt west winds and seas building from 20 ft at 46.5N 169.25E aimed east. In the evening west winds built in coverage at 45 kts just south of the Central Aleutians with seas 35 ft at 51.5N 174.75E aimed east. On Sat AM (4/6) west winds were 45 kts just south of the Central Aleutians while the core of the gale moved fully into the Bering Sea with seas 36 ft unshadowed just south of the Central Aleutians at 51N 180W aimed east. In the afternoon the gale is to track east into the Northwestern Gulf with 35-40 kt west winds unshadowed and seas 32 ft at 51.5N 172.5 aimed east. On Sun AM (4/7) fetch is to be fading while falling southeast over the Northwestern Gulf from 30 kts with seas fading from 26 ft at 50.5N 165.75W aimed east. In the evening the gale is to fall southeast with 30 kt northwest winds and seas fading from 23 ft at 49.75N 160W aimed east. The gale is to dissipate from there. Something to monitor.

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (4/10) building to 3.0 ft @ 15-16 secs later (4.5 ft) with equal size local windswell intermixed. Swell building on Thurs (4/11) to 5.0 ft @ 14 secs (7.0 ft). Swell getting overcome by local windswell later in the day. Swell Direction: 307 degrees

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest were being tracked.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 6, 7, 4 and 1 inches with a dusting late Sat (4/13) and then a little more Wed-Thurs (4/18).

Freeze Level for Tahoe Ski Resorts: Freeze Levels 10,500 ft today holding through Thurs 4/11 then falling down to 5.000 ft late Sat (4/13) rebuilding to 10,000 ft on 4/15 only to fall steadily down to 5,000 ft late on 4/17 and beyond.

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Tues AM (4/9) no swell of interest from the South Pacific was hitting California or Hawaii.

Over the next 72 hours swell from a gale that developed in the deep South Central Pacific was pushing northeast towards California and (see Southeast Pacific Gale below).

And of more interest is a gale developing in the upper reaches of the Southeast Pacific on Mon PM (4/8) generating a fetch of south winds at 35 kts with seas building from 30 ft at 51S 145W aimed northeast. On Tues AM (4/9) south winds built to 45 kts over a solid area aimed due north with seas building to 32 ft at 49S 140W aimed north. In the evening south winds to hold at 45 kts with seas 35 ft at 46S 138W aimed due north. Fetch fading on Wed AM (4/10) from 30-35 kts and seas fading from 31 ft at 43.5S 138W aimed due north. In the evening south fetch fading from 30 kts with seas 26 ft at 39.5S 135W aimed northeast. Something to monitor given this gales far north position and aim directly at California.

Southeast Pacific Gale
A gale started developing in the deep Central South Pacific on Wed AM (4/3) with 35-40 kt southwest winds and seas building from 25 ft at 64.5S 160W aimed northeast. In the afternoon a fetch of 45 kt fully southwest winds were lifting east-northeast over the Southeast Pacific with seas 29 ft at 64S 144W aimed east-northeast. Fetch was fading Thurs AM (4/4) from 40 kts from the southwest while lifting northeast over far Southeast Pacific with seas fading from 30 ft at 59.5S 132W aimed northeast. The gale was dissipating in the evening with south winds 30 kts and seas fading 27 ft at 54S 124.5W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival Fri (4/12) building to 1.1 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell building on Sat (4/13) to 1.5 ft @ 16-17 secs mid-day (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading some on Sun (4/14) from 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Residuals on Mon (4/15) fading from 1.7 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 191 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (4/13) building to 1.3 ft @ 16-17 secs mid-day (2.0 ft). Swell building some on Sun (4/14) from 1.5 ft @ 15 secs mid-day (2.0-2.5 ft). Residuals on Mon (4/15) fading from 1.7 ft @ 14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 189 degrees

New Zealand Gale
A gale was developing while push east under New Zealand on Sat AM (4/6) with 35-40 kt west winds and seas 29 ft at 60.5S 151.25E aimed east. In the evening 40-45 kt west winds were building in coverage with seas building to 30 ft at 62.25S 165.75E aimed east. On Sun AM (4/7) southwest fetch was fading from 35-40 kts while lifting northeast with seas 32 ft at 61.5S 175.75E aimed east-northeast. In the evening a broad fetch of southwest winds at 35 kts remained producing 26 ft seas aimed due northeast at 59.25S 171.5W aimed east-northeast. The gale was fading Mon AM (4/8) over the deep South Central Pacific while lifting hard northeast with southwest winds 30-35 kts and seas 25 ft at 57S 157W aimed northeast. Small swell is possible mainly for CA.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (4/15) building to 1.1 ft @ 19 secs mid-day (2.0 ft). Swell continues on Tues (4/16) at 1.3 ft @ 17-18 secs (2.0-2.5 ft) but possibly being overrun by more local southerly swell. Swell Direction: 211 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (4/15) building to 1.1 ft @ 19 secs late (2.0 ft). Swell continues on Tues (4/16) at 1.4 ft @ 17-18 secs (2.0-2.5 ft) but possibly being overrun by more local southerly swell. Swell Direction: 210 degrees

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a low pressure system is forecast develop well off North CA on Fri AM (4/12) with northwest winds 30-35 kts and seas 19 ft at 41N 140W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale to fall southeast with 35+ kt northwest winds off San Francisco and seas 22 ft at 36.5N 133W aimed southeast targeting Central CA. On Sat AM (4/13) the gale is to be just off San Francisco producing north winds at 30 kts targeting South and Central CA with seas 20 ft at 35.5N 131W aimed southeast. Fetch is to be fading in the evening from 30 kts with seas 20 ft at 34N 129.5W targeting Central and Southern CA well. The gale to dissipate after that while moving over Pt Conception late Sunday. Something to monitor.

A previous cutoff low west of Hawaii is to redevelop Sun PM (4/14) while lifting north in the Northwestern Gulf with40 kt northeast winds and seas trying to develop. On Mon AM (4/15) the gale is to look decent producing north winds at 40-45 kts and seas 27 ft at 45N 164.25W aimed south somewhat targeting Hawaii. In the evening northwest winds are forecast at 40 kt directly targeting Hawaii with 27 ft seas at 41.75N 168.75W aimed directly at Hawaii. Fetch fading Tues AM (4/16) from 30 kts from the northwest with seas 22 ft at 36.5N 166.25W aimed south at Hawaii. The gael dissipating after that. Something to monitor.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours starting Tues PM (4/9) a gale is forecast pushing under New Zealand with 45 kt west winds and seas 35 ft at 57.25W 158.75E aimed east. On Wed AM (4/10) the gael is to track east-southeast with 40 kt west winds and seas 32 ft at 60S 170E aimed east. On Wed PM (4/10) additional fetch to develop over the same general area at 55 kts from the west producing seas 38 ft at 62S 179E aimed east. Fetch is to push east on Thurs AM (4/11) at 50 kts from the east with seas 46 ft over a tiny area at 6S 164.5W aimed east. In the evening fetch is to be racing east at 40-45 kts with seas 36 ft at 64.75S 149W aimed east. Fetch fading Fri AM (4/12) at 35 kts from the southwest with seas 32 ft at 63S 138.75W aimed east. Fetch fading in the evening from 30 kts from the southwest with seas fading from 27-28 ft at 60S 130W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

La Nina Arrives
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Starting to Fade
9 Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But now cold water has traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific and is starting to erupt off the coast of Ecuador with the remaining warm pool created by El Nino starting to dissipate in the East Equatorial Pacific. Regardless, the atmosphere is still in El Nino mode and will continue from previous momentum while slowly fading through Fall of 2024.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 6 Active MJO's produced 6 Kelvin Waves over early to mid 2023 with Kelvin Wave #7 in August building over the West Pacific and the 4th, 5th and 6th backed up off Ecuador now (10/20/23). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias moving over California now filling the Pacific. We are now under an El Nino status. We are moving into a period of enhanced storm production (starting late Sept 2023) and beyond, getting intense come late Fall and early Winter. This should result in an above normal level of swells, with swells being longer than normal duration from here forward as El Nino gets a stronger footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is a well above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration (i.e 15 significant class swells perhaps). Last year there were 0 and year before 5 or less.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (4/8) 5 day average winds were moderate to strong east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were weak east over the East equatorial Pacific and weak east over the Central Pacific and modest east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (4/9) East anomalies were at moderate status filling the KWGA today. But weak west anomalies were starting to show in the far West Pacific. The forecast indicates moderate east anomalies steadily moving east and losing coverage in the KWGA with weak west anomalies building over the KWGA from the west filling it by 4/14 at modest strength and then holding filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 4/25.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (4/9) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was steady at 177W. The 28 deg isotherm line was 5 meters deep from 100W to 160W then deeper west of there and mostly just waters warmed by sunlight and being pushed west by trade winds. The 24 degree isotherm extended the whole way across the Pacific and was shallow but stable in the east at 25m deep. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were building in coverage at +3 degs while getting compressed to the surface fast under the East Pacific at 28m deep from Ecuador west to 155W and mainly just the result of suppressed trades driven by the Active Phase of the MJO there. Neutral to +1 deg anomalies or less were deeper from the dateline west. El Nino is gone subsurface. A large pool of cold anomalies at -5 degs were down at 120m deep at 155W reaching east and weaker to a point along Ecuador at -1 degs and filling the entire Equatorial Pacific. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 4/3 indicates cold water was in control from Ecuador west to 125W at the surface and at depth to 160E. The last remnant warm surface water from El Nino was getting pushed west by trades starting at 120W and points west of there. Cold water was filling the entire equatorial Pacific thermocline below it. La Nina is developing. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (4/3) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 to -10 cms over the entire equatorial Pacific. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (4/3) cold water was filling the Equatorial Pacific and -0.5 to -1.5 degs over the entire equatorial Pacific. El Nino is gone from the subsurface perspective and now clearly turning to La Nina.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (4/8) The latest images depict a moderate warm stream from Ecuador uniformly covering the area on the equator west to 160W except for 1 cool pocket along the coast of Ecuador. There is still a solid El Nino signal present but with the beginnings of a cold La Nina signal are starting to emerge from the depths up to the oceans surface along Ecuador.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (4/8): Water temps were falling over the entire equatorial Pacific strongest over the Galapagos. No meaningful warming was indicated. A warming trend that has been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 2022 was fading and a cooling pattern is becoming evident.
Hi-res Overview: (4/8) Warmer than normal waters are filling the Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to the dateline with a cool pocket along the coast of Ecuador. The classic El Nino tongue of warm water is still present and building in density on the equator west to the dateline. Everything still looks like El Nino but the beginnings of La Nina are developing at the surface near Ecuador.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/9) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were rising slightly at -0.308 after falling to -0.565 on 4/1 and have been below 0 since 3/19.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/9) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were +0.868 degs falling from +1.120 (4/3) degrees. Previously temps have been in the +1.2 deg range since 3/11. Temps were at +1.2 degs or higher since 1/13. Temps had been in the +1.5 range 11/19-1/12. Weekly OISST are +1.0 (week of 3/27) down from +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1). Monthly Data is +1.72 Oct, +2.02 Nov, +2.02 Dec and +1.82 Jan and +1.56 Feb. The 3 month ONI is +1.8 for the 3 month period DJF and +2.0 ft for NDJ (bare minimal Super El Nino status). All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan and +1.65 in Feb.
Forecast (4/9) - Temps to fall to +0.5 degs mid-April, -0.5 late May and -2.1 degs in Nov/Dec 2024. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same thing but with temps falling to only -1.55 degs. According to this version of the model we are past the peak of a strong El Nino.
IRI Consensus Plume: The March 19, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +0.760 degs today and its the 11th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to fall steadily from here forward down to +0.326 in April (that's a 3 months running mean) then fading from there down to -1.011 in Sept and holding there. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -1.097 in Sept and the Statistic down to -1.021 in Oct.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (4/8) the Daily Index was at +3.96 today. The daily SOI turned mostly positive on 2/20 after a 28 day negative peaking down at -46.54 on 2/9. It was positive and up to +31.61 on 1/6 and had been rising the previous 10 days. It had been effectively neutral 11/20/23 through 1/10/24. This was not consistent with El Nino. Previously it was negative for 29 days (7/14-8/11) with a peak down to -37.30 on 7/25 and negative previously to 7/12 with peaks down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12.
The 30 day average was falling some at -2.82, Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was falling some at -4.54. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
El Nino is collapsing

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/19 and hard negative in 10/21-10/23 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/23-2/24 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table