Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 3.2 ft @ 16.7 secs with swell 1.3 ft @ 16.1 secs from 202 degrees. Water temp 75.9 (Barbers Pt), 75.9 (Pearl Harbor 233), 76.5 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 6.5 ft @ 6.7 secs with swell 5.2 ft @ 6.6 secs from 70 degrees. Water temp 74.8 degs
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 5.4 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 2.4 ft @ 11.4 secs from 326 degrees. Water temp 75.7 degs
Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.8 ft @ 11.4 secs with swell 1.8 ft @ 10.8 secs from 207 degrees. Wind east at 8-10 kts. Water temperature 57.6 degs, 56.1 (Harvest 071), 57.6 (Topanga 103), 57.7 (Long Beach 215), 59.4 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 58.5 (Del Mar 153), 59.4 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 4.0 ft @ 9.5 secs from 301 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 1.9 ft @ 10.5 secs from 280 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.2 ft @ 14.8 secs from 187 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 0.8 ft @ 14.8 secs from 195 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.9 ft @ 11.7 secs from 241 degrees. Water temperature was 58.6 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 5.5 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 3.1 ft @ 14.4 secs from 309 degrees. Wind south at 4-8 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and SW at 4 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801589) and east at 10 kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 54.1 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 55.0 (San Francisco 46026), 55.8 (SF Bar 142), 54.5 (1801589) and 55.0 (Monterey Bay 46092).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (4/2) in North and Central CA waves were waist to chest high and lined up and clean but mostly closed out and a bit on the soft side. Protected breaks were waist high with a few chest high peaks and clean and lined up with decent form but soft. At Santa Cruz surf was chest to shoulder high on the peaks and lined up with decent form and very clean but soft. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh to maybe waist high on the sets and lined up and real clean but pretty closed out and soft. Central Orange County had waves at chest to shoulder high on the sets and lined up with decent form and clean with no wind but soft. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had waves at maybe waist high and soft and weak but clean with decent form when they came. North San Diego had waves at up to waist high and clean and soft with decent form. Oahu's North Shore had waves at head high and lined up with decent form and fairly clean with some sideshore texture on it. The South Shore had wave at thigh high on the sets and slightly lined up with decent form but soft and clean. The East Shore was getting east trade wind windswell at chest high and chopped from solid easterly trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (4/2) California and Hawaii were getting no defined swell of interest with only limited locally generated windswell hitting both locations. A gale developed off the Kuril Islands while tracking northeast fast Mon-Tues (4/2) producing up to 44 ft seas before it impacted the Western Aleutians. Small sideband swell possible mainly for the US West Coast. And maybe a small gale to develop while tracking east over the North Dateline Region to the Western Gulf Fri-Sun (4/7) with 28 ft seas aimed east but most energy is to be impacting the Aleutian Islands or even north into the Bering Sea. In general a pretty quiet pattern is setting up for the North Pacific. Down south a gale is forecast in the deep Southeast Pacific Wed-Thurs (4/4) with 30 ft seas aimed decently northeast. And another small one to follow tracking east under New Zealand Sat-Sun (4/7) with up to 37 ft seas aimed east. A seasonal transition appears to be weakly underway.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (4/2) the jet was weakly consolidated from Japan half way to the dateline forming a trough over the Kuril Islands with winds to 160 kts offering limited support for gale development. East of there over the dateline the jet was ridging hard north up into the Bering Sea then falling hard south over the Northern Gulf and splitting with the northern branch forming a pinched trough there not offering much before pushing hard into British Columbia. Over the next 72 hours the Kuril trough is to track east and slowly flatten and gone by late Thurs (4/4) not offering much in terms of support for gale formation. The North Gulf trough is to hold together while tracking east and then falling south down the US West Coast forming a backdoor trough moving inland over Central CA on Fri (4/5) only offering support for weather there. By Sun (4/7) the northern branch of the jet is to be tracking northeast off Japan running flat just due south of the Aleutians but starting to form a new trough in the Northwestern Gulf on Mon (4/8) being fed by 130-140 kts winds offering some support for gale formation. But back to the west the jet is to fully split start just off Japan on Wed (4/3) likely signaling at least the development of the Inactive Phase of the MJO if not the full arrival of Spring.

Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (4/2) only locally generated windswell was hitting Hawaii and California.

Over the next 72 hours starting Mon AM (4/1) a gale developed off Japan with 45 kt southwest winds and seas building. In the evening the gale built to storm status while lifting northeast with west winds 50 kts and seas 33 ft at 45.75N 164E aimed east. On Tues AM (4/2) the gale was just south of the Western Aleutians with west winds 55 kts and seas 44 ft at 50.75N 170E aimed east and poised to start impacting the Aleutians. In the evening the gale is to move into the Bering Sea with 32 ft seas fading south of the Aleutians at 52N 175E aimed east. Something to monitor with maybe some sideband swell radiating east towards mostly the US mainland.

North CA: Rough data suggests swell arrival on Sat (4/6) building to 1.8 ft @ 17 secs later (3.0 ft) and very inconsistent. Swell builds more on Sun (4/7) peaking at 3.1 ft @ 15 secs (4.5 ft) holding through the day. Swell fading on Mon (4/8) from 2.1 ft @ 13 secs (2.5 ft) and becoming lost in shorter period local windswell. Swell Direction: 308 degrees

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Wed AM (4/3) the leading edge of high pressure arrives with northwest winds 15-20 kts for North CA and northwest 10+ kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds build some at 20 kts for North CA and 15 kts for Central CA. Showers possible for Cape Mendocino in the late afternoon and evening. Light snow for Tahoe in the evening.
Thurs AM (4/4) local low pressure sets up over North CA with high pressure north of Hawaii producing a gradient off the coast but with northeast winds 10-15 kts for North CA and northwest winds 15 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon the core of the low moves over San Francisco with northwest winds 25-30 kts for North CA and northwest winds 25-30 kts for Central CA and northwest winds 20+ kts for Southern CA. Rain for North CA early building south to Pt Conception in the afternoon and maybe showers for Southern CA in the evening. Snow developing early for the Sierra building in intensity in the afternoon to solid status and continuing in the evening.
Fri AM (4/5) the low is to be inland with high pressure in control producing northwest winds at 20-25 kts for North and Central CA early and 15 kts for Southern CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 20 kts for North, Central and Southern CA. Rain continues for all of CA through the day clearing in the evening. Light steady snow for the Sierra fading overnight.
Sat AM (4/6) high pressure remains stationary north of Hawaii with a light pressure pattern over CA with northwest winds 10+ kts for North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA and 20 kts for Southern CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 5-10 kts for North Ca and 5-10 kts for Central CA but 20 kts for Pt Conception. Clear early but with light showers developing for Cape Mendocino in the afternoon through the day pushing south over North Ca in the evening Light snow for the Tahoe in the evening.
Sun AM (4/7) northwest winds to be 5 kts for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon high pressure builds offshore with northwest winds 15+ kts for North CA and 15 kts for Central CA early. Showers for North CA down to Monterey Bay early building some mid-AM then clearing in the afternoon. Light snow for the Tahoe area.
Mon AM (4/8) high pressure holds producing northwest winds at 20-25 kts for North, Central and Southern CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds moderate at 20+ kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA and light further south. Showers for Southern CA early.
Tues AM (4/9) northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA early. No precip forecast.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 11, 13, 17 and 10 inches with small steady accumulation 4/4 through 4/5.

Freeze Level for Tahoe Ski Resorts: Freeze Levels 10,500 today then falling 4/3 down to 3,500 ft holding into 4/7 before starting to rise again to 10,500 ft on 4/9 and more of less holding thereafter. Highly changeable conditions forecast.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
Swell from a gale that developed under New Zealand is hitting California but very small and inconsistent (see New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours a gale is forecast developing in the deep Central South Pacific on Wed AM (4/3) with 35-40 kt southwest winds and seas building from 25 ft at 64.5S 161W aimed northeast. In the afternoon a fetch of 45 kt fully southwest winds is to be lifting east-northeast over the Southeast Pacific with seas 31 ft at 64S 143.5W aimed east-northeast. Fetch fading Thurs AM (4/4) from 40 kts while lifting northeast over far Southeast Pacific with seas fading from 29 ft at 58.5S 132W aimed northeast. The gale is to dissipate in the evening with south winds 30 kts and seas fading 24 ft at 56S 121.5W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

Weak New Zealand Gale
A gale developed under New Zealand while falling southeast on Wed PM (3/20) producing west winds at 40 kts with seas building to 32 ft at 60.75S 172.75E. On Thurs AM (3/21) west winds were 35 kts aimed east with seas 28 ft at 62.75S 178.25W aimed east. Fetch fading while falling southeast in the evening with southwest winds 35 kts and seas 26 ft at 63.25S 157.5W aimed east. Fetch dissipating from there. No swell expected to result for Hawaii.

Southern CA: Swell fading on Tues (4/2) from 1.2 ft @ 14-15 secs (1.5 ft). Residuals on Wed (4/3) fading from 1.2 ft @ 13-14 secs early (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 199 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours a gale is forecast developing while approaching the the North Dateline region from the southwest on Fri AM (4/5) with 35 kt west winds and seas building. In the evening west winds to build to 45 kts just south of the Central Aleutians with seas 28 ft at 51N 173.5E aimed east. On Sat AM (4/6) west winds to fade from 35 kts while the core of the gale moves fully into the Bering Sea and shadowed by the Aleutian Islands with seas 32 ft unshadowed just south of the Central Aleutians at 51N 179.25E aimed east. In the afternoon the gale is to track east into the Northwestern Gulf with 35-40 kts west winds unshadowed and seas 29-30 ft at 51N 174W aimed east. On Sun AM (4/7) fetch is to be fading while falling southeast over the Northwestern Gulf from 35 kts with seas fading 27 ft at 50.75N 167.5W aimed east. In the evening the gael is to fall southeast with 30+ kts northwest winds and seas fading from 24 ft at 49.75N 160.75W aimed east. The gael is to dissipate from there. Something to monitor.

Beyond 72 hours perhaps another gale is to develop while push east under New Zealand on Sat PM (4/6) with 45 kt southwest winds and seas building to 30 ft at 62.25S 166.25E aimed east. On Sun AM (4/7) southwest fetch is to fade from 40-45 kts while lifting northeast with seas 33 ft at 61S 176.5E aimed northeast. In the evening a broad fetch of southwest winds at 35 kts is to remain producing 25 ft seas aimed due northeast at 60S 170W. Something to monitor.

La Nina Arrives
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Starting to Fade
9 Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But now cold water has traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific and is starting to erupt off the coast of Ecuador with the remaining warm pool created by El Nino starting to dissipate in the East Equatorial Pacific. Regardless, the atmosphere is still in El Nino mode and will continue from previous momentum while slowly fading through Fall of 2024.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 6 Active MJO's produced 6 Kelvin Waves over early to mid 2023 with Kelvin Wave #7 in August building over the West Pacific and the 4th, 5th and 6th backed up off Ecuador now (10/20/23). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias moving over California now filling the Pacific. We are now under an El Nino status. We are moving into a period of enhanced storm production (starting late Sept 2023) and beyond, getting intense come late Fall and early Winter. This should result in an above normal level of swells, with swells being longer than normal duration from here forward as El Nino gets a stronger footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is a well above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration (i.e 15 significant class swells perhaps). Last year there were 0 and year before 5 or less.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (4/1) 5 day average winds were strong east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral to light west over East equatorial Pacific and modest west over the Central Pacific and light east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (4/2) East anomalies were at moderate status filling the KWGA today with weak west anomalies south of California over the East Equatorial Pacific. The forecast indicates moderate east anomalies filling the KWGA through 4/8 with weak west anomalies starting to build over the KWGA from the west then and eventually filling the KWGA 4/17 and building to strong status at the end of the model run on 4/18.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (4/1) A moderate Inactive MJO (clear sky's) was over the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates the Inactive MJO is to nearly dissipate on day 5 of the model run then fully neutral on days 10 and 15 of the model run. The dynamic model depicts the same thing initially but with an Active Phase building into the KWGA on day 10 and filling it on day 15.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (4/2) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was weak over East Africa today. The forecast indicates it is to move to the Maritime Continent over the next 15 days at very weak status. The dynamic model indicates the Active Phase moving to the far West Pacific 15 days out and weak.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (4/2) A modest Inactive MJO pattern (dry air) was over the KWGA today. The Inactive MJO is to move fast to the east and out of the KWGA on 4/7 with a modest Active MJO (wet air) moving over the KWGA on 4/12 filling it through 4/27. The Inactive Phase is to start building over the West KWGA through the end of the model run on 5/12. .
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (4/1) Today a moderate Active MJO signal was east of the KWGA and south of California. A modest Inactive Phase and east anomalies are building over the KWGA and forecast solid now through 4/14. After that the Inactive Phase is to weaken but with east anomalies holding at weak status filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 4/29 even while a weak Active Phase is to develop 4/15-4/25.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (4/2) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
The Active Phase of the MJO and associated west anomalies are fading south of California and no longer in the KWGA. The Inactive Phase and east anomalies are building over the KWGA. The Inactive Phase is to hold filling the KWGA through 4/14. then west anomalies are to start developing with the Active Phase of the MJO taking over 4/15-5/6. After that the Inactive Phase is to develop starting 4/28 holding more of less through the end of the model run at weak status with weak west anomalies holding. The low pass filter indicates a broad low pressure bias is established over the KWGA centered at 165W with the second contour line fading on 4/9. The final contour is to fade on 6/27. It appears a strong El Nino is fading out. The Low pressure bias is to move back to the Indian Ocean starting 5/3 building there through the end of the model run on 6/28.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (4/2) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 deg isotherm is gone. The 29 degree isotherm was racing west from 177W to 177E. The 28 deg isotherm line was 5 meters deep from 103W to 160W then deeper west of there and mostly just waters warmed by sunlight and being pushed west by trade winds. The 24 degree isotherm extended the whole way across the Pacific and was shallow but stable in the east at 20m deep. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were losing coverage and +1 to +2 degs while getting compressed to the surface fast under the East Pacific at 28m deep from Ecuador west to 155W. Neutral to +1 deg anomalies were deeper from the dateline west. El Nino is gone subsurface. A large pool of cold anomalies at -5 degs were down at 120m deep at 155W reaching east and weaker to a point along Ecuador at -1 degs and filling the entire Equatorial Pacific. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 3/29 indicates cold water was in control from Ecuador west to 125W at the surface and at depth to 160E. The last remnant warm surface water from El Nino was getting pushed west by trades starting at 120W and points west of there. Cold water was filling the entire equatorial Pacific thermocline below it. La Nina is developing. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (3/29) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 cms over the entire area and -10 cms from the Galapagos to 120W and building in density. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (3/29) cold water was filling the Equatorial Pacific and -0.5 to -1.5 degs east of 140W. El Nino is gone from the subsurface perspective and now clearly turning to La Nina.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (4/1) The latest images depict a moderate warm stream from Ecuador uniformly covering the area on the equator west to 160W and actually building density except for 1 cool pocket along the coast of Ecuador. There is still a solid El Nino signal present but with the beginnings of a cold La Nina signal are starting to emerge from the depths up to the oceans surface along Ecuador.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (4/1): A small cooling pocket was off Ecuador reaching to the Galapagos. Warming was on the equator from 90W out to the dateline. A warming trend that has been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 2022 and is barely hanging on.
Hi-res Overview: (4/1) Warmer than normal waters are filling the Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to the dateline with a cool pocket along the coast of Ecuador. The classic El Nino tongue of warm water is still present and building in density on the equator west to the dateline. Everything still looks like El Nino but the beginnings of La Nina are developing at the surface near Ecuador.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/2) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were falling at -0.540 and have been below 0 since 3/19. Temps previously were up at +1.024 degs on 3/12 and that was fading from +1.161 after peaking at +1.197 on 2/13 as the last of warm subsurface water got squeezed upwards. Temps were up from +0.502 on 2/4 and had been toggling in the +0.6 degs range since 12/30, previously up into the +2.0 range in early Nov. .
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/2) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were rising at +1.259 today from +1.171 3/23 after dipping some the previous 5 days. Temps had been at +1.2 degs or higher since 1/13. Temps had been in the +1.5 range 11/19-1/12. Weekly OISST are +1.0 (week of 3/27) down from +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1). Monthly Data is +1.72 Oct, +2.02 Nov, +2.02 Dec and +1.82 Jan and +1.56 Feb. The 3 month ONI is +1.8 for the 3 month period DJF and +2.0 ft for NDJ (bare minimal Super El Nino status). All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan and +1.65 in Feb.
Forecast (4/2) - Temps to fall to +0.5 degs mid-April, -0.5 late May and -2.4 degs in Nov/Dec 2024. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same thing but with temps falling to only -1.70degs. According to this version of the model we are past the peak of a strong El Nino.
IRI Consensus Plume: The March 19, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +0.760 degs today and its the 11th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to fall steadily from here forward down to +0.326 in April (that's a 3 months running mean) then fading from there down to -1.011 in Sept and holding there. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -1.097 in Sept and the Statistic down to -1.021 in Oct.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (4/2) the Daily Index was negative at -12.84 today. The daily SOI turned mostly positive on 2/20 after a 28 day negative peaking down at -46.54 on 2/9. It was positive and up to +31.61 on 1/6 and had been rising the previous 10 days. It had been effectively neutral 11/20/23 through 1/10/24. This was not consistent with El Nino. Previously it was negative for 29 days (7/14-8/11) with a peak down to -37.30 on 7/25 and negative previously to 7/12 with peaks down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12.
The 30 day average was falling some at -1.40, Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was falling some at -4.01. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
El Nino is collapsing

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/19 and hard negative in 10/21-10/23 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/23-2/24 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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