Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 5.9 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 4.5 ft @ 12.5 secs from 302 degrees. Water temp 76.1 (Barbers Pt), 75.2 (Pearl Harbor 233), NA (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 9.5 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 7.1 ft @ 13.1 secs from 329 degrees. Water temp 76.1 degs
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 10.2 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 7.5 ft @ 11.9 secs from 327 degrees. Water temp 74.8 degs
Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.0 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 2.2 ft @ 10.2 secs from 241 degrees. Wind northeast at 4 kts. Water temperature 58.6 degs, 57.2 (Harvest 071), 58.6 (Topanga 103), 58.8 (Long Beach 215), 59.5 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 58.6 (Del Mar 153), 59.7 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 2.6 ft @ 21.8 secs from 277 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 1.6 ft @ 10.2 secs from 275 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.7 ft @ 9.7 secs from 261 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.9 ft @ 10.3 secs from 261 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.4 ft @ 10.3 secs from 268 degrees. Water temperature was 58.8 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 13.5 ft @ 20.0 secs with swell 7.7 ft @ 19.5 secs from 269 degrees. Wind SE at 21-28 kts (46013) and SE 21-24 kts (1801589). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 56.1 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 56.1 (San Francisco 46026), 55.6 (SF Bar 142), 56.3 (1801589) and 58.6 (Monterey Bay 46042).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Saturday (2/17) in North and Central CA waves were 3-4 ft overhead and lined up but a little all over the place and with warbled intermixed from southerly wind. Protected breaks were head high to 1 ft overhead and super lined up and closed out with clean conditions. At Santa Cruz surf was up to 1-2 ft overhead on the peaks and lined up with good form and clean though soft and with some warble intermixed. In Southern California/Ventura waves were head high on the sets and real lined up with decent form through racing a bit and clean with no wind. Central Orange County had waves at waist to chest high and lined up and clean and a bit closed out. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had waves at waist high and lined up and clean with decent form but soft. North San Diego had waves at thigh to waist high and lined up and real clean with decent form though a bit closed out. Oahu's North Shore had waves 3-4 ft overhead and warbled and still pretty out of control but with winds almost turning northeast. The South Shore was waist high and clean. The East Shore was head high and chopped from northeasterly wind.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Saturday (2/17) California was getting the leading edge of swell from a broad and strong gale that developed on the dateline Tues (2/13) then fell southeast to a point just north of Hawaii on Wed (2/14) with seas to 39 ft targeting the Islands well then tracked east into the Gulf with seas fading from 35 ft on Thurs (2/15) targeting the US West Coast well. That same swell was fading in Hawaii. Another gale is developing north of Hawaii on Sat (2/17) with 26 ft seas and is forecast to continue east Sun-Mon (2/19) with 28-30 ft seas well off Pt Conception offering swell for Central and Southern CA. And another has built over the North Dateline region Fri-Sat (2/17) with 46 ft seas over a small area aimed east. And maybe a weak systems to develop over the Central Gulf Wed-Thurs (2/22) with 21-23 ft seas aimed east. More swell is possible.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Saturday (2/17) the jet was tracking east with 130+ kt winds running the width of the North Pacific on the 30N latitude line but partially split from Japan to a point north of Hawaii with a well defined trough over the Gulf of Alaska and winds in the jet building to 170 kts there well supportive of gale formation. A weak trough was in the split portion of the jet off Kamchatka offering some support for gale formation. Over the next 72 hours the Gulf trough is to continue holding together if not getting better organized on Sun (2/18) repositioned just of Central CA and supportive of gale development continuing into Tues (2/20). But back to the west the jet is to be solid but getting very split through the forecast period with the main flow down at 30N and the split flow up at 45N tracking east. The trough off Kamchatka is to continue holding together pushing east to the Northwestern Gulf on Tues (2/20) being fed by 120 kts winds offering more support for gale formation. Beyond 72 hours the Gulf trough is to eventually push inland over Central CA on Wed (2/21) mostly bringing weather to most of California. And remnants of the Kamchatka trough are to start getting cut off from the main flow on Thurs (2/22) and then circulating there into Sat (2/24) perhaps offering some support for low pressure development. By Sat (2/24) the jet is to be fully split over the width of the North Pacific with the northern branch following just south of a curve defined by the Aleutian Islands with no troughs forecast in it offering no support for gale development. But there is still to be good energy levels in the jet.

Surface Analysis
On Saturday (2/17) all eyes were on swell generated by a gale that pushed east from a point north of Hawaii (see Hawaiian Storm below).

Over the next 72 hours a new gale is to be developing in the Gulf targeting mainly Central CA (see Gulf Gale below).

Also starting Fri AM (2/18) a gale started building just off the Kuril Islands while lifting northeast with 45-50 kt west winds and seas building from 25 ft at 43N 160E aimed east. In the evening the gale built to storm status while lifting northeast and approaching the North Dateline region with 60-65 kt west winds and seas 41 ft at 48.5N 168.75E aimed east building to 46 ft in the late evening. On Sat AM (2/17) the gale was lifting over the West Central Aleutians with 50 kt west winds and seas 44 ft at 50.75N 174.5E aimed east. In the evening the gale is to be in the West Bering Sea with residual west winds of 35-40 kts south of the Aleutians over the North Dateline region with seas there fading from 29 ft unshadowed at 50N 180W aimed east. The gale to dissipate from there. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Rough data suggests swell arrival on Tues (2/20) building to 2.6 ft @ 16-17 secs early (4.5 ft). This is likely underestimated. Swell continue on Wed (2/21) at 3.6 ft @ 14-15 secs later (5.0 ft). Swell fading Thurs (2/22) from 3.6 ft @ 13 secs (4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 325 degrees

North CA: Rough data suggests swell arrival on Wed (2/21) building to 2.5 ft @ 17 secs mid-day (4.0 ft) and very inconsistent. Swell continues on Thurs (2/22) at 2.3 ft @ 15 secs (3.5 ft). Swell getting buried in other swell beyond. Swell Direction: 307 degrees

Hawaiian Gale #8
On Mon AM (2/12) a small storm started building between North Japan and the dateline with 50 kt west winds over a tiny area and seas to 27 ft over a small area at 40.75N 166.25E aimed east. In the evening winds eased east at 45-50 kts from the west approaching the dateline with seas 33 ft at 40.75N 170.75E aimed east. On Tues AM (2/13) fetch was starting to build in coverage while the system fell southeast approaching the dateline with northwest winds 40-45 kts and seas building from 29 ft at 37.25N 172E aimed southeast. In the evening the gale was well organized over the dateline with northwest and west winds 40-45 kts and seas building from 34 ft over a decent sized area at 34.75N 179E aimed east and southeast. On Wed AM (2/14) the gale was easing east with 45-55 kt northwest winds and seas 35 ft at 33.25N 174W. In the evening the gale tracked east 800 nmiles northwest of Oahu with 40-45 kts northwest winds and seas 39 ft at 34.25N 164.25W aimed east and southeast. On Thurs AM (2/15) the gale was 750 nmiles north of the Islands with northwest winds 35-40 kts and seas 35 ft at 34N 156.75W aimed east. Swell from it was poised for Hawaii. In the evening the gale is to track east in the Central Gulf producing a broad fetch of 30-35 kt northwest and west winds and seas 28-30 ft over a large area centered at 36N 152W aimed east and southeast targeting the US West Coast. On Fri AM (2/16) the gale is to be fading in the Eastern Gulf with northwest winds 30-35 kts and seas fading from 26 ft at 36N 147.25W aimed east. Residual fetch fading in the evening from 30-35 kts and seas fading from 25 ft up at 42N 147W aimed east. Possible solid and somewhat raw swell to reach the Hawaiian Islands and radiating east from there into the US West Coast. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Residuals on Sat (2/17) fading from 7.0 ft @ 12-13 secs (8.0 ft). Swell Direction 325 moving to 350 degrees Wind to be strong north to north-northeast the whole time.

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (2/17) building to 10 ft @ 17-18 secs later (17.5 ft). Swell fading some on Sun (2/18) from 9.2 ft @ 15-16 secs early (14 ft). Residuals on Mon (2/19) fading from 5.9 ft @ 13-14 secs (8.0 ft) with much local windswell intermixed. Swell Direction: 277 degrees. South winds to be in control the whole window.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (2/18) peaking early at 4.5 ft @ 17 secs (7.5 ft) and slowly fading through the day. Swell fading early Mon AM (2/19) from 2.9 ft @ 14 secs (4.0 ft) with new swell building overtop. Swell Direction: 282 degrees. Comparatively decent local winds possible

Gulf Gale
Starting Fri PM (2/16) a gale started building 700 nmiles north of Hawaii with 35-40 kt northwest winds and seas building from 23 ft at 36N 164W aimed southeast. On Sat AM (2/17) fetch was building while falling southeast with 40 kt northwest winds and seas 27 ft at 32.5N 152W aimed southeast with sideband energy targeting Hawaii but most at the US West Coast. In the evening fetch to continue building while lifting northeast at 45 kts with seas 28 ft at 34N 145W aimed southeast. On Sun AM (2/18) the gale is to be holding off Monterey with 35-40 kt west winds and seas 31 ft at 34.75N 140W aimed southeast targeting all of Central and Southern California well. In the evening the gale is to hold stationary off Central CA with 30-35 kt northwest winds and seas 29 ft at 33N 136.5W off Pt Conception. On Mon AM (2/19) the gale is to be fading producing west winds at 25-30 kts just off San Francisco and seas 24 ft at 34.5N 133 with swell poised for all of Central CA. The gale to dissipate in the evening. Possible sideband energy for Hawaii but most targeting Central CA down into Southern CA and Baja. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Expect sideband swell arriving on Sun (2/18) building to 8.4 ft @ 13-14 secs early (11.0 ft) and holding decently through the day. Residuals on Mon (2/19) fading from 5.8 ft @ 12 secs early (6.5 ft). Dribbles on Tues (2/20) fading from 4.5 ft @ 11 secs 94.5 ft). Swell Direction: 350 moving to 10 degrees.

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (2/19) building to 11.5 ft @ 15 secs later (16.5 ft). Swell fading Tues (2/20) from 10.5 ft @ 13-14 secs early (13 ft). Residuals on Wed (2/21) fading from 5.5 ft @ 11-12 secs (6.5 ft). Swell Direction: 260-270 degrees

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Sun AM (2/18) a low is to be building off San Francisco with south winds 10-15 kts for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon the front is to start impacting Central CA with south winds 20-25 kts for North CA and south winds 20-25 kts for Central CA. Light winds for Southern CA. Quickly clearing conditions for all of North, Central and Southern CA early. Snow clearing early for the Sierra. A new bout of rain starts for all of North and Central CA late afternoon and getting pretty heavy in the evening. Snow develop for the Sierra in the evening. .
Mon AM (2/19) the front continues pushing onshore over all of California with south winds 20 kts for North CA and south to southwest winds 15-20 kts for Central CA and southwest winds developing at 5-10 kts Southern CA. More of the same in the afternoon with south winds 20-25 kts for North CA and south winds 15-20 kts for all of Central CA and south winds 10 kts for Southern CA. Heavy rain for all of North and Central CA early continuing but lighter in the afternoon and evening while building south over Southern CA through mid-Orange County in the afternoon. Heavy snow early for the Sierra continuing but lighter in the afternoon and evening.
Tues AM (2/20) the low is to be off Oregon with fading south winds 20-25 kts for Cape Mendocino and south winds 10 kts for the rest of North CA and south winds 10+ kts for Central CA and south winds 5 kts for Southern CA. In the afternoon the low fades with south winds 15 kts for North CA and south winds 10 kts for Central CA and southwest winds 5-10 kts for Southern CA. Light steady rain for all of the state through the day and evening but solid for Southern CA before noon not quite reaching San Diego. Steady snow for the Sierra holding all day and evening.
Wed AM (2/21) northwest winds are forecast early for North CA at 5 kts and southeast at 5 kts for Central CA and west 10 kts for Southern CA. In the afternoon another low starts building off the coast with south winds 5 kts for Cape Mendocino and west 5 kts for the SF bay area and northwest 5 kts for the rest of Central CA. Rain for mainly Central and Southern CA early fading late morning. Snow for the Sierra fading mid-afternoon.
Thurs AM (2/22) the low stalls a bit off the coast with south winds 5-10 kts for North CA but light and calm for Central CA early. In the afternoon south winds build at 10 kts for North CA and northwest 10 kts for most of Central CA. Rain for North CA in the afternoon. No precip forecast
Fri AM (2/23) the low remains stalled off the coast with southeast winds 5-10 kts for North Ca and south winds 5 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon southeast winds to be 5-10 kts for North CA and northwest 5 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast
Sat AM (2/24) east winds are forecast at 5-10 kts for North CA early and northwest 1-5 kts for Central CA. No change in the afternoon.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 66, 70, 70, and 84 inches respectively starting Sat (2/17) accumulating steady through Wed (2/21) then again some on Mon-Tues (2/27).

Freeze Level for Tahoe Ski Resorts: Freeze Level rising to 7,500 ft on Sun (2/18) then down steadily to 5,500 ft 2/20 and briefly 2,500 ft early 2/22 before building to 10,000 ft on 2/23 then falling beyond.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell of interest coming from the Southern Hemisphere was hitting Hawaii or California. Summer is over.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours starting Tues PM (2/20) a gale is forecast developing in the Gulf with 30-35 kts northwest winds and seas building from 19 ft at 42N 160W aimed east. On Wed AM (2/21) northwest winds to build in coverage at 30-35 kts with seas 22 ft at 40.5N 150W aimed east. Northwest winds building in the evening at 35-40 kts in the Central Gulf with seas 26 ft at 44N 147W aimed southeast. On Thurs AM (2/22) fetch falling southeast at 40 kts with seas 25 ft at 39N 143W aimed southeast. Something to monitor.

El Nino Collapsing in the Ocean
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Still Reflect a Strong El Nino - But the End is Near
8 Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Nov 2023 erupting off Ecuador. The warm pool created by them is now dissipating fast off Ecuador. But the atmosphere is still deep in El Nino and will continue from previous momentum. Cold water is getting poised to start erupting off Ecuador in a few weeks which will hasten the demise of El Nino.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 6 Active MJO's produced 6 Kelvin Waves over early to mid 2023 with Kelvin Wave #7 in August building over the West Pacific and the 4th, 5th and 6th backed up off Ecuador now (10/20/23). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias moving over California now filling the Pacific. We are now under an El Nino status. We are moving into a period of enhanced storm production (starting late Sept 2023) and beyond, getting intense come late Fall and early Winter. This should result in an above normal level of swells, with swells being longer than normal duration from here forward as El Nino gets a stronger footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is a well above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration (i.e 15 significant class swells perhaps). Last year there were 0 and year before 5 or less.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (2/16) 5 day average winds were strong east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over East equatorial Pacific and moderate west over the Central Pacific and light west over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (2/17) West anomalies are moderate over the KWGA today. The forecast indicates moderate west anomalies holding over the KWGA to 2/18, then collapsing with east anomalies developing over the dateline and mostly holding over the entire KWGA from that point forward through the end of the model run on 3/4.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (2/16) The Active Phase of the MJO (wet air/cloudy skies) was covering the KWGA. The statistic model indicates the Active MJO (wet air/cloudy sky's) is to push slowly east and almost gone from the KWGA on day 5 of the model run with a modest Inactive Phase (dry air/clear sky's) moving from the Maritime Continent into the West KWGA on day 10 then filling it on day 15 and building to strong status. The dynamic model depicts the Active MJO dissipating on day 5 of the model run then turning weakly Inactive on day 10 but with the Inactive Phase racing east on day 15 and a new stronger Active Phase setting up in the far West KWGA on day 15.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (2/17) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was weak over the Atlantic today. The forecast indicates it is to push east at weak status moving over the Central Indian Ocean 15 days out. The dynamic model indicates the Active Phase is to push east moving to the East Indian Ocean at very weak status 15 days out.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (2/17) A weak Active MJO pattern (wet air) was barely holding over the KWGA today. The forecast has the Active Phase (wet air) holding over the KWGA through 2/22 before moving east. The Inactive Phase (dry air) is to follow over the KWGA 3/3 through 3/8. Then a weak Active Phase is to push into the KWGA 3/13 and holding while building through the end of the model run on 3/28.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (2/16) Today no MJO signal was detected in the KWGA but west anomalies were moderate to strong focused over the dateline and filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates west anomalies are to back off some 2/20-2/24 then rebuild holding strong through 3/5 then moderating but still holding at moderate strength filling the KWGA through the last day of the model run on 3/15.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (2/17) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Active Phase of the MJO was fading but still filling the KWGA with west anomalies blowing at moderate strength. The Active Phase is to be gone by 2/20 but west anomalies are to hold weakly through 3/19. A modest Inactive Phase moved into the far West KWGA 2/6 but is to stall there not making any real push east until 3/15 then controlling the KWGA through 4/25, but no east anomalies are forecast with weak west anomalies in control. The Active Phase is to weakly follow 3/22 through the end of the model run on 5/16 with weak west anomalies in control. The low pass filter indicates a broad low pressure bias is established over the KWGA centered at 165W with a third contour line fading on 3/29 and the second contour line fading 5/2. The high pressure bias was over the Maritime Continent 10/2-1/21 but faded but forecast to return weakly today through 3/17. It appears a strong El Nino is still in control and is to move east over the next 3 months while dissipating.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (2/17) Today in the far West Pacific the leading edge of the 30 deg isotherm was retrograding from 180W to 168E. The 29 degree isotherm was retrograding to 172W from 178W. The 28 deg isotherm line had raced east at 112W but today was retrograding to 154W. The 24 degree isotherm extended the whole way across the Pacific and was getting shallower in the east at 27m deep (previously 32m). Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +2 deg C are moving east (or at least shrinking in coverage) fast under the East Pacific starting at 130W (previously 135W). +3 deg anomalies start at 119W (previously 126W, 143W and 172W) and are shrinking in coverage while getting squeezed to the surface by cold water underneath. The warm pool in the east is discharging fast to the surface with no backfilling occurring. There's maybe 2 weeks of warm water left. Colder water extends east now under the entire Pacific to Ecuador undercutting the warm pool preventing the formation of any new Kelvin Waves. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 2/12 indicates a variation on that theme with +1-2 degs anomalies start at 165E and over a large section of the subsurface equatorial Pacific but only reaching down to 100 meters. This is likely just surface warming pushing east driven by trades. 3 deg anomalies from Kevin Wave #7/#8 start at 110W (previously 135W) in pockets likely erupting to the surface and covering east into Ecuador. Cool water was building deep in the far West Pacific down 150m reaching east to 100W while lifting up to 35 meters. The end is near for El Nino. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (2/12) Sea heights over the equator were positive limited to a pocket at 130W and then some between the Galapagos to Ecuador at +0-5 cms. The warm pool is discharge quickly. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (2/12) warm water is racing east with +0.5 degs anomalies starting at 90W (previously 130W) to Ecuador with +1.0 deg anomalies limited to 85W (previously 148W) to Ecuador and moving east. Cool water was moving east reaching to 134W but some weak warm anomalies were also building under the equator at 0-+0.5 degrees. El Nino is collapsing with cooler water developing over the West Pacific and now moving into the East Pacific. This signals are poised to turn to La Nina.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (2/16) The latest images depict a moderate warm stream from Ecuador uniformly covering the area on the equator west to the dateline but steadily losing density with many cooler (but not cold) pockets interspersed. Temps are fading more markedly east of 130W. Heat also extends north up to Southern Baja and south down into North Chile. There is still a clear El Nino signal with the classic El Nino triangle in-place but it is steadily losing density and intensity.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (2/16): A warming trend was along the coast of Chile Peru and Ecuador. 3 moderate pockets of warming were on the equator near the Galapagos, at 110W and 130W. Otherwise temps were neutral. A warming trend that has been well entrenched over the East Pacific since Nov 1 2022 is collapsing.
Hi-res Overview: (2/14 Warmer than normal waters are filling the Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to the dateline. The classic El Nino tongue of warm water is still present but slowly losing it's density on the equator west to the dateline. Everything still looks like El Nino.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (2/17) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps are falling at +0.893 after peaking at +1.197 on 2/13 as the last of warm subsurface water gets squeezed upwards. Temps were up from +0.502 on 2/4 and had been toggling in the +0.6 degs range since 12/30, previously up into the +2.0 range in early Nov. .
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (2/17) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were steady at +1.155 and had been +1.2 degs or higher since 1/3. Temps had been in the +1.5 range since 11/19-1/12. Weekly OISST are at +1.7 degs the week of 2/7, +1.8 degs the week of 1/31. +1.7 week of 1/24 and 1/17 up at +1.9 degs 1/10 and 1/3. and up at +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 degs (11/29) and +2.1 (week of 11/22 - the highest so far), then +1.9 the week before and +1.8 degs (previous 2 weeks). Monthly Data is +1.72 Oct, 2.02 Nov, 2.02 Dec and +1.87 for Jan. The 3 month ONI is +2.0 ft the 3 month period Nov-Dec-Jan or bare minimal Super El Nino status.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps started slowly rising to -0.75 degs in Jan 2023 and up to -0.5 degs (above the La Nina threshold) on 2/12. Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May and were at +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan and +1.65 in Feb.
Forecast (2/16) - Temps are to fall to +1.5 degs in mid-Feb. Temps are to be falling to +1.0 mid-March and steadily falling from there down to -2.0 degs in Nov 2024. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same thing but with temps falling to -1.5 degs in Nov and leveling off there. According to this version of the model we are past the peak of a strong El Nino.
IRI Consensus Plume: The January 20, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +1.53 degs today and it's the 9th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to fall steadily from here forward down to +1.149 in Feb (that's a 3 months running mean) then fading from there down to -0.783 in Sept. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.827 in Sept and the Statistic down to -0.783.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (2/17) the Daily Index was negative at -4.56 today and peaked at -46.54 on 2/9 and has been negative the last 26 days. It was positive and up to +31.61 on 1/6 and had been rising the previous 10 days. It had been effectively neutral 11/20/23 through 1/10/24. This is not consistent with El Nino. Previously it was negative for 29 days (7/14-8/11) with a peak down to -37.30 on 7/25 and negative previously to 7/12 with peaks down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12.
The 30 day average was falling at -17.60, Recent max lows were -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was falling some at -5.80. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
El Nino is collapsing

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since and the most negative in 2021-2023 since 2011, driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions. There's some sign of it rising in Nov/Dec 2023, but only slightly. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.