On Thursday (2/9) Northern CA surf was 2-4 ft overhead and clean with warm weather and no wind. South facing breaks in Santa Cruz were up to 2-3 ft overhead. Central California surf was 2-3 ft overhead. Southern CA breaks from Santa Barbara to just north of LA were up to head high to 1 ft overhead at the best breaks with most chest high or less. The LA area southward to Orange County was chest to head high with best spots 1-2 ft overhead. Southward from Orange County into San Diego best breaks were chest to head high with sets 1-2 ft overhead. The North Shore of Oahu was double overhead plus and windblown. The South Shore was maybe waist high. The East Shore was getting some wrap around swell with waves to 2 ft overhead at select breaks.
Swell #14 is gone with one large utility class storm left, now fading just over the dateline. After that a massively split jetstream is expected to set up and remove any fuel for surface level storm development, resulting in surf much less in size and quality than what's been experienced as of late. Make the most of what's coming our way now. See details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
Thursdays (2/9) jetstream continued with one strong consolidated flow tracking from Japan at 180 kts to a point due north of Hawaii, then splitting with a strong flow pushing south over Hawaii and continuing to the equator with a secondary flow pushing northeast into Northern Canada. There was only a minor trough just east of the dateline in the strong part of the flow, limiting surface level storm generation potential to that area. Over the next 72 hours through early Sunday that trough is to push east into the Gulf of Alaska and wither with weak jetstream support there. But a solid trough with 200 kt winds flowing under it is forecast just off Japan tracking east to the dateline and withering as well, with a major split in the jet occurring there. This suggest that any storm development will be limited to west of the dateline. Beyond 72 hours the jet is to totally fade with winds dropping to 110 kt by next Tuesday and a major split continuing east of the dateline and retrograding to just off Japan by Thursday, totally eliminating any chance for surface level storm development anywhere over the Pacific.
At the surface today a storm was tracking in to the Gulf of Alaska (See Dateline Storm below). Otherwise high pressure was just west of Hawaii and off California with generic low pressure over the North Pacific north of 38 degrees. Over the next 72 hours the only feature of interest is to be a 968 mb storm forecast to wind up late Friday (2/10) in the Gulf of Alaska with 55 kt winds forecast in it's southwest sector aimed well at North California down the 298-308 degree paths tracking north for 18 hours, then fading fast. 30 ft seas forecast late Friday through Saturday near and north of 45N 155W. After that strong high pressure at 1032 mbs is to build right in the middle of the Aleutian Storm Corridor with a secondary high of equal strength off California, totally shutting things down well into next week.
Late Tuesday (2/7) a 1004 mb gale started to develop north of Hawaii generating 30-35 kt winds in close proximity to the Islands while it interacted with strong high pressure at 1024 mbs west of Hawaii. These winds were aimed initially right at them, then tracked a bit east Wednesday continuing to produce 30-35 kt northwest winds aimed a bit east of the Islands. By Thursday AM this system was fading out. 22 ft seas were modeled through the period tracking towards and east of Hawaii. That windswell has already hit Hawaii (on Thursday) and expected to decline.
The active phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation is all but gone, with no evidence of it to be left by early next week. La Nina conditions to become reestablished with a vengance.This is not to be conducive to storm development.
On Tuesday PM (2/7) a 976 mb low developed just west of the dateline generating 50 kts winds in the storms south quadrant at 42N 165E aimed right up the 298 degree great circle path to North CA and 40 degrees east of the 309 degree path to Hawaii. Seas were on the increase.
By Wednesday AM (2/8) pressure dropped to 968 mbs with winds confirmed at 50-60 kts at 43N 175E aimed right at North CA up the 298 degree path and 40 degrees east of the 318 degree path to Hawaii. Seas were building. In the evening pressure dropped to 964 mbs as the storm crossed the dateline with winds were confirmed down to 50-55 kts at 43N 173W aimed at North CA up the 297 degree path and 55 degree off the 331 degree path to Hawaii. Seas were modeled at 29 ft centered at 43n 175E.
By Thursday AM (2/9) pressure was 964 mbs as the storm pulled in the the northwest Gulf of Alaska with 50 kts winds over a small area confirmed at 47N 165W aimed right at California up the 300 degree path. Seas were modeled at 32 ft at 44N 172W. By evening this pressure to be up to 968 mbs with winds 45 kts over a fading area at 49N 162W aimed towards California up the 306 degree path. Seas forecast at 34 ft centered at 47N 163W.
This storm to be gone by Friday AM (2/10).
There was nothing special about this storm, though wind speeds were decent. It was moving fast to the northeast and was relatively small in total areal coverage, limiting swell generation potential. It was 1856-2807 nmiles from North CA and 1537-1856 nmiles from Hawaii, but fetch was not aimed well at the Islands.
North California: Expect swell arrival Sunday (2/12) at noon with swell period 19 and size ramping up fast. Swell to peak near 6 PM with pure swell 6.7-7.7 ft @ 17 secs (11-13 ft faces) holding through early Monday AM , and on the drop by sunrise. Swell Direction: 296-300 degrees
Hawaii: Expect Swell arrival Saturday (2/11) at 10 AM HST with swell period 17 secs and swell quickly peaking near 2 PM with pure swell 7.0-7.9 ft @ 16-17 secs (12-13 ft faces). Swell fading by early Monday AM (pre-sunrise) as period drops to 14 secs. Swell Direction: 318-331 degrees
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
California Offshore Forecast
On Thursday (2/9) the models indicate massive high pressure to be building in by Saturday totally taking over the Eastern Pacific for at least the next week. North winds from it's initial appearance on Sunday to be an issue Sunday north of Pt Conception and maybe creeping in again Wednesday of next week, otherwise a light wind regime forecast.
The detailed 5 Day wind forecast is now included with the surf & swell overview in the QuikCAST's.
No swell producing fetch forecast over the next 72 hours.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours one more storm is forecast for the dateline, but strong high pressure in the in the Gulf of Alaska is to drive all fetch due north towards the Aleutians with no energy tracking east towards either Hawaii or California. No other swell producing systems forecast. Looks like flatness might be on the menu.
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.
Details to follow...
MV Indies Trader Returns to Sumatra
Indies Trader Marine Adventures is proud to announce that after seven incredibly successful years circumnavigating the globe on Quiksilver's "Crossing" expedition - the MV Indies Trader is returning to its roots in Sumatra.
More info here
El Nino Forecast Updated: The Stormsurf El Nino forecast was updated on 12/30/05. Check out all the latest details concerning El Nino and it's impact on the winter surf season. Details here
Tutorial on the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) Presented by Dr. Roland Madden: If you're interested in El Nino and the MJO, have a basic understanding of El Nino, and you have broadband connection, audio and Macromedia Flash installed, then the following presentation is a must see. Dr Madden present a great overview of how the MJO works. And there's nothing like hearing it straight from the founders mouth. Link here: http://meted.ucar.edu/climate/mjo/mjonav0.htm
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table