BUOY ROUNDUP
Sunday, January 5, 2025 :

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (1/5) in North and Central CA waves were 2 ft overhead and lined up but a bit warbled and funky with light northwest winds. Protected breaks were chest to maybe shoulder high on the sets and lined up if not closed out with clean conditions. At Santa Cruz surf was chest to shoulder high and lined up up and clean with decent form but soft. In Ventura County surf was waist to occasionally near chest high on the sets and lined up and clean with good form but soft. Central Orange County had sets at head high to 1 ft overhead and lined up and mostly closed out and real clean early. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had surf at head high and lined up if not closed out coming from the northwest and clean early. North San Diego had sets at chest to maybe head high and lined up and clean with decent form and soft. Oahu's North Shore was getting new swell with waves 12-15 ft Hawaiian and clean with light winds and good form at select breaks. The South Shore was thigh high and warbled if not chopped from southerly winds. The East Shore was getting wrap around northwest swell with waves waist to chest high and clean from light south winds.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (1/5) lingering swell was hitting California from a modest gale that developed while tracking east from Japan tracking east to the dateline with seas 39 ft Wed (1/1) over a small area aimed east before fading in the West Gulf. Swell was hitting Hawaii from a far broader and stronger gale that developed west of Japan Wed (1/1) tracking to the dateline through Fri (1/3) with 38-41 ft seas then dissipating while just barely making it east of the dateline late Friday. This swell is pushing towards California. Another gale is forecast developing just west of the dateline Sun-Mon (1/6) falling southeast with seas 28-30 ft and again just barely making it east of the dateline then turning easterly Tues (1/7) with 25 ft seas in close proximity to the Islands. perhaps a secondary gael to form from it while lifting fast north Wed (1/8) with up to 34 ft seas aimed east. After that things settle down with a small gale forecast over the North Dateline Region Thurs-Fri (1/10) producing 34 ft seas aimed east.

See all the details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Sunday (1/5) the jetstream was consolidated pushing east off Japan with winds 170-180 kts reaching to a point 700 nmiles north of Hawaii forming a gentle trough on the dateline offering some support for gale production. The jet split just north east of Hawaii with weak energy mostly in the northern branch tracking northeast over Washington making weather there. Over the next 72 hours the jet is to remain solid running east off Japan with winds building to 210 kts falling into a developing trough northwest of Hawaii on Tues (1/7) offering excellent support for gale formation then nearly pinching off while lifting northeast on Wed (1/8) but still supporting gale formation. Beyond 72 hours starting Thurs (1/9) the trough in the east is to be lifting up and over Alaska offering nothing. Back to the west the jet is to remain solid running off Japan with winds 180+ kts reaching to the dateline but with no obvious troughs indicated then weakly splitting over the Western Gulf and filly split over the East Gulf with most energy tracking northeast and targeting British Columbia (weather). Winds to build over the western portion of the jet on Fri-Sat (1/11) to 190 kts but still split east of a point 800 nmiles north of Hawaii with no clearly defined troughs indicated and no clear support for gale formation. And by Sun (1/12 winds to start fading in the western portion of the jet down to 150-160 kts with no troughs indicated. Perhaps a weakening storm track is forecast a week out.

Surface Analysis
On Sunday (1/5) swell was fading in California from a combination of local low pressure previously just off the coast and a gale previously over the Gulf (see Local CA Gale below).

And swell was hitting Hawaii from a broad gale that tracked east through the Western Pacific and is bound for the US West Coast (see West Pacific Storm below).

And another gale was developing west of the dateline forecast to target Hawaii well (see Another West Dateline Gale below).

And on Wed (1/8) remnants of the final West Dateline Gale (below) are to redevelop in the Central Gulf Wed AM (1/8) producing a small fetch of west winds at 55 kts with seas building from 27 ft at 41.5N 155W aimed east. In the evening west winds are to be lifting north at 50-55 kts with seas 38 ft at 48.75N 149W aimed east. On Thurs AM (1/9) southwest winds are to be lifting up into the Northern Gulf at 45 kts with seas 41 ft at 52N 144.75W targeting only the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia. Something to monitor.

Local CA Low Pressure
Secondary fetch from the West Gulf Gale (above) started developing Thurs PM (1/2) in the East Gulf with west winds 30 kts with seas building from 19 ft at 39.5N 140.5W aimed east. On Fri AM (1/3) west winds to be 30 kts in the Eastern Gulf just off Cape Mendocino with seas 20 ft at 42.5N 134W aimed east. In the evening 30 kt west winds are to be impacting southern Oregon with seas 21 ft over a tiny area at 42N 129W or just west of the CA-OR border. Fetch and seas fading while moving inland Sat AM (1/4).

North CA: Residuals fading Sun AM (1/5) from 5.8 ft @ 13 secs (7.5 ft). Residuals fading Mon AM (1/6) from 5.0 ft @ 11-12 secs early (5.5 ft). Swell Direction: 292 degrees

West Pacific Storm
A broad storm developed just off Central Japan Tues PM (12/31) producing northwest winds at 50 kts with seas building from 23 ft at 40N 150e aimed southeast. On Wed AM (1/1) northwest winds built in coverage at 50-55 kt with seas building to 41 ft at 38.25N 157.75E aimed east. In the evening the storm tracked east with northwest winds 50-55 kts half way to the dateline over a broad area with seas 41 ft at 36.5N 163.75E aimed east and southeast. On Thurs AM (1/2) northwest winds were fading at 40-45 kts but over a large area approaching the dateline with 38 ft seas at 38N 170.75E aimed east. Fetch was easing east up to the dateline in the evening at 40+ kts over a broad area and seas 38 ft at 37.25N 175E aimed east and southeast. Fetch was holding position Fri AM (1/3) at 35-40 kts over a large area with seas fading from 34 ft at 40.75N 180W aimed east. In the evening fetch was regrouping to the west at 40-45 kts over a solid area aimed east and now back west of the dateline with seas from the original fetch fading from 32 ft at 36.5N 177.25W aimed east and a new area of 28 ft seas at 45.5N 167E aimed east. On Sat AM (1/4) only the new fetch remained at 35-40 kts from the west extending from the Kuril Islands to the Dateline with 25-26 ft seas over that entire area and up to 31 ft seas over a tiny area at 45.25N 170E aimed east and southeast. In the evening the fetch was shrinking with 35-40 kts northwest winds off the Kurils and seas 27 ft at 43.5N 175.75E aimed east and southeast. Swell is radiating southeast and east.

Oahu: Swell solid Sun AM (1/5) at 7.8 ft @ 17 secs (13 ft) slowly fading some through the day as period drops to 16 secs late. Mon AM (1/6) swell stabilizes at 6.4 ft @ 15 secs (9.5 ft) steady through the day. Swell being overrun by new possible swell beyond. Swell Direction: 310 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (1/6) building to 3.6 ft @ 19 secs at sunset (6.5 ft). Swell building Tues (1/7) to 5.6 ft @ 16-17 secs mid-day (9.0 ft). Swell stabilizing Wed (1/8) at 5.9 ft @ 15 secs early (8.5 ft). Swell fading Thurs (1/9) from 4.9 ft @ 13-14 secs early (6.5 ft). Swell Direction: 290-293 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues AM (1/7) building to 2.0 ft @ 17 secs later (3.5 ft) at exposed breaks. Swell steady Wed (1/8) at 2.4 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.5 ft). Swell fading Thurs (1/9) from 2.4 ft @ 14-15 secs early (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 294-298 degrees

Another West Dateline Gale
And on Sun AM (1/5) lingering fetch off the Kuril Islands from the West Pacific Storm (see below) was redeveloping producing northwest winds at 35-40 kts over a solid area and seas building from 29 ft at 41.5N 172E aimed southeast. In the evening a broad fetch of 35 kt northwest winds are to hold extending from the Kurils just over the dateline with seas 30 ft at 37N 176E aimed southeast at Hawaii. On Mon AM (1/6) fetch is to fall southeast at 30-35 kts with seas 29 ft at 33.75N 179.75W aimed southeast. More of the same in the evening with seas up to 27 ft over a solid area on the dateline centered at 32.5N 179W aimed southeast targeting Hawaii well. Fetch pulsing some Tues AM (1/7) and almost from the north at 30-35 kts over a solid area 500 nmiles northwest of Hawaii with seas 24-25 ft at 30N 175W with it's leading edge at 26N 171W aimed southeast. Fetch tracking east in the evening at 30-35 kts just 400 nmiles north of Hawaii with seas 26 ft at 30N 167W aimed southeast. Fetch tracking east and gone Wed AM (1/8) with seas from previous fetch 24 ft at 30.5N 159W aimed southeast. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Rough data suggests swell arrival later on Tues (1/7) building to 8.4 ft @ 15-16 secs (13.0 ft). Swell building through the day Wed (1/8) to 10.4 ft @ 15 secs at sunset (15.5 ft). Swell fading some on Thurs (1/9) from 8.7 ft @ 14-15 secs early (12.5 ft). residuals on Fri (1/10) fading from 6.0 ft @ 13-14 secs (8.0 ft). Swell Direction: 315 degrees

North CA: Rough data suggests swell arrival on Fri (1/10) with period 16 secs early building to 5.5 ft @ 15 secs later (8.0 ft). Swell fading Sat (1/11) from 5.2 ft @ 14 secs (7.0 ft) early. Swell Direction: 282 degrees

Southern CA: Rough data suggests swell arrival on Fri (1/10) building to 2.2 ft @ 16 secs later (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell fading Sat (1/11) from 2.5 ft @ 15 secs (3.5 ft) early. Swell Direction: 288 degrees

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
No tropical weather systems of interest are being tracked.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Snow Levels for Tahoe (focused on Palisades Tahoe): Freeze level rising to 10,000 ft briefly on 1/5 falling to 5,000 ft late on 1/7 then rising sharply to 12,000 ft 1/8 and holding through 1/10, falling 7-8,000 ft 1/12 and holding there beyond. A very changeable but warm winter looks to be setting up and certainly not Winter like.

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell is in the water and no swell producing fetch is occurring. .

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours possibly another small gale is to be building west of the dateline Wed PM (1/8) producing west winds at 35-40 kts and seas building from 22 ft. On Thurs AM (1/9) west winds to be 40-45 kts approaching the dateline with seas 35 ft at 43N 174E aimed east. In the evening the gale is to swell east over the dateline with 45 kt west winds and seas 39 ft over a modest area at 42N 177.75W aimed east. Fetch tracking east Fri AM (1/10) at 35-40 kts in the Western Gulf with seas fading from 31 ft at 41.25N 171W aimed east. In the evening fetch is to be gone with seas fading from 27 ft at 43N 162.5W aimed east. Something to monitor.

And perhaps another small gale to develop on the dateline Sun (1/12) with 35-40 kts west winds and seas 26 ft at 41N 174W aimed east.

After that things to possibly go quiet.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

Modoki La Nina in Control
MJO Pattern Now 'Unstuck'
9 downwelling warm water Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and 5 upwelling Kelvin Waves have traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific starting Feb 2024 and continue erupting over the East Equatorial Pacific, with a 6th one underway now. The atmosphere is in a weak La Nina mode focused on the dateline, but not expected to build or move much beyond.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected and continue building today.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but as of late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it take 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean is just now starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly into a La Nina pattern, it seems La Nina will not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025. And 2 months later Winter will be fading and any support for La Nina to build will be fading with it. Therefore, we can assume we are at best going to be in weak La Nina conditions as we get deep into the Winter of '24/'25. Conversely El Nino 23/24 faltered because of a persistent high pressure background state (in the Pacific) attributable to the PDO being in a long running cold state (which in turn mimics a modest La Nina background state). And there is no signs of that changing. The net result is that the atmosphere is stuck in a long running weak La Nina background state which in turn suppresses storm and swell development effectively setting up an atmosphere with no momentum towards either strong La Nina or strong El Nino. As a result the forecast for the coming winter season will reflect the atmospheres tendency to not actively support storm formation though not actively completely hindering it either.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (1/4) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral to weak west over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (1/5) Today weak east anomalies were limited to a small area over the dateline but with moderate west anomalies filling the west half of the KWGA. The forecast suggests west anomalies start retrograding to the west 1/7 while fading in strength isolated back over the Maritime Continent by 1/8 with east anomalies building in coverage and strength filling the KWGA at strong status 1/19 and holding beyond through the end of the model run on 1/21. Of note: West anomalies are rebuilding to moderate plus status over the Maritime Continent 1/4 and building more starting 1/15 to strong status and then holding. it looks like repeat of December is setting up for January, with the Active Phase over the Maritime Continent feeding energy into the jetstream allowing it to cross the West Pacific. This might be a good pattern longer term.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (1/3) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm was gone, previously at 162E. The 29 degree isotherm was reaching east to only 164E. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 175E. The 24 degree isotherm was reaching east to 125W (previously 140W) and then rebuilding some west of there. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +2 degs in the far West and East Pacific with a building pocket of strongly cooler anomalies present in between down 125 meter centered at 138W at -6 degs extending from 110-155W filling the Central Pacific thermocline. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 12/29 indicates cold anomalies were filling the the thermocline from the dateline east to 90W at up to -5.0 degs below normal centered at 135W. The density and volume of that cold water at depth was building. Warm anomalies were isolated to the area west of the dateline and building. La Nina is here. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (12/29) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 cms from Ecuador west to 175E with -10 cms between 95W-170W and -15 cms expanding from 125W-160W. It appears the cool pool is building but westward displaced. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (12/29) the cool pool is rebuilding filling the area from the dateline to just off Ecuador with a core at -2.0- to -2.5 degs below normal from 120W to 165W. A La Nina pattern is in play with now 6 pulses so far (the first showed in Feb). Warm water is limited west of the dateline and getting steadily warmer and building in coverage.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (1/4) The latest images depict a La Nina cool pool was filling the equatorial Pacific from 110W to 160E and strongest from 120W to 170E but not present in the far East Pacific. We are in La Nina, but not strongly and it looks very much like a Modoki version (westward displaced).
Hi-res 7 day Trend (1/4): A steady warming trend was in control of the East Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to 120W and mixed warm and cool west of there balanced more towards warming.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/5) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were steady at -0.307 (-0.275 1/3). They peaked at +0.265 (11/22), starting the upward rise on 11/4-5 when anomalies were as low as any previous reading (near -1.4 degs), and hovered between -1.5 to -1.0 starting 9/22.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (1/5) Today's temps were redounding slightly at -1.227 after dropping to -1.429 (12/27). Previously anomalies were on a steady decline from -0.475 (11/22) and generally steady since 11/4, lower near -1.0 degs 9/21-10/28, and had been falling steadily in pulses since 6/30. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20 and but then rebuilt hovering near neutral 6/2 through 6/30.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were -1.1 week of 12/25, the coldest so far. Previously temps were -0.8 (12/18),-0.6 (12/11), -0.3 (12/4 and 11/27), -0.1 (11/20), 0.0 (11/13), -0.3 (11/6), -0.2 (10/30), -0.5 (10/23), -0.3 (10/16), -0.5 degs (10/9), -0.3 (10/2), -0.2 degs (10/25), -0.5 degs (9/18 the first time solidly negative), -0.2 (9/11), -0.1 (9.4), -0.2 (8/28), 0.0 (8/21), -0.1 degrees (8/14) +0.0 (8/7) -0.2 degrees (7/31) and the first week negative in a year, +0.1 (week of 7/24), +0.2 (7/17), +0.3 (7/10 and 7/3), +0.4 ( 6/26) +0.3 (6/19) +0.0 (week of 6/12) +0.1 (6/5 & 5/29) +0.2 degs (5/15 and 5/22), +0.3 (5/8), +0.5 (5/1), +0.8 (4/24), +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data is -0.19 Nov, -0.26 Oct., -0.25 Sept, -0.11 August, +0.05 July, +0.18 June, +0.24 May, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +1.52 Feb, +1.82 Jan 2024, +2.02 Dec (2023), +2.02 Nov, and +1.72 Oct (2023).
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.80 (SON), -0.75 (ASO), -0.63 (JAS), -0.51 (JJA), -0.45 (MJJ), -0.26 (AMJ), +0.06 MAM, +0.50 FMA, +0.86 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.47 ft for NDJ 2023 (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.49 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb then down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and then +0.25 mid June falling to -0.15 degs in mid-Aug, -0.3 mid Sept and -0.35 mid-Oct and up to -0.2.0 in Nov then down to -0.7 in Dec. Temps did not fall anywhere near as fast or hard as forecast.
Forecast (1/5/25) - Actual temps are now posted for the month of Dec and annihilated the CFS forecast where the forecast was -1.0 degs and actuals were -0.3 degs. The forecast is for temps falling to -1.05 in mid-Jan before rebounding to -0.35 in April 2025 and at 0.0 in Aug and beyond. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same steep drop with temps to -1.0 degs mid-Jan then rebounding as described above. We are moving to a weak La Nina.
IRI Consensus Plume: The December 20, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.435 degs today (unchanged from last month) and is the 7th month below neutral since El Nino developed. Temps rise from here forward to above -0.2 degs in March (MAM). This is an upgrade with temps previously forecast down to -0.944 (per the April model run). The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.594 in Dec and the Statistic down to -0.203 in Dec. In other words, we are at the peak of La Nina now. Both these projections are about like before but only suggest a bare minimal week La Nina.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (1/5/25) the Daily Index was positive at 5.80 but was negative the previous 6 days, but otherwise mostly positive for over a month now
The 30 day average was falling at +6.00 and has been building positive the last month and in La Nina territory.
The 90 day average was falling at +6.89 and now moving weakly into La Nina territory.
We are in ENSO neutral status moving towards La Nina.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling to -1.52 in March 2024, -2.12 April, -2.99 May, -3.16 in June, -2.99 July, -2.91 Aug and -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. In Nov the index final rose some to -3.24. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table