On Tuesday (7/4) Northern CA surf was flat, foggy and onshore. South facing breaks in Santa Cruz were flat. Central California surf was up to waist high. Southern CA breaks from Santa Barbara to just north of LA were thigh high on the sets at the best breaks. The LA Area southward to Orange County was waist high on the sets. Southward from Orange County into San Diego best breaks were waist high. The North Shore of Oahu was flat. The South Shore was thigh to waist high. The East Shore was waist high.
Surf is all but gone in California with nothing available to ride in the North and only tiny combo windswell and southern hemi swell in the South. This is the trend for the next 2 weeks at least. Today Hawaii remained small with dribbles lapping up on the South Shore and nothing else rideable. Looking at the models we see a continuation of the unfavorable jetstream pattern in the South Pacific driving all storm energy over Antarctic Ice and providing no chance for anything to develop in ice free waters. A small fetch passed under New Zealand Monday evening (7/3) generating 28 ft seas and possibly providing small swell for Hawaii a week out. Also 2 small lows generated 28 ft seas Thursday (6/29) and 26 ft seas again on Sunday (7/2) providing the faintest of hope for California. But overall we don't even typically look at systems this small, but these are desperate times. Looking further out nothing of any real interest is on the charts. See details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis.cgius forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
Tuesdays jetstream charts (7/4) indicated the jetstream flow was all but gone providing no support for surface level gale development for the next 7 days. Detailed monitoring for the North Pacific is now on an exception basis through the summer.
At the surface on Tuesday (7/4) high pressure at 1028 mbs was centered in the Gulf of Alaska ridging slightly into North and Central California and over the Hawaiian Islands providing 15-20 kt trades in both locations (from the north in CA and east in HI) and generating small short period windswell there. No other swell producing fetch was indicated. Over the next 72 hours through Friday (7/7) the Gulf high is to push towards Oregon generating slightly stronger north winds at 20-25 kts along the North and Central CA coasts and generating slightly larger short period windswell there. Trades to continue if not back off a little late over the Hawaiian Islands continuing the small windswell along eastern shores there. No change in swell generation potential suggested. Low pressure is over the dateline try to do something, but with no upper level support not much is expected from it.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
California Offshore Forecast
No big change forecast this week with northwest winds picking up some by Thursday to the 20-25 kts range centered directly over North and Central CA (not over Cape Mendocino) generating lumpy unorganized short period windswell and poor conditions at exposed breaks in North and Central CA through the coming weekend. There's hints the fetch might start to pull away form the coast for Saturday (7/8), but then return Sunday and finally dissipating Monday (7/10) as low pressure takes hold.
The detailed 5 Day Wind Forecast is included with the surf & swell overview in the QuikCAST's.
On Tuesday (7/4) no big changes were happening down south with a fully .cgiit jetstream flow in.cgiace over the entire South Pacific with the southern branch having winds only up to 120 kts (weak) and generally traversing the Ross Ice Shelf. No troughs of interest were indicated in the California or Hawaii swell windows. The Northern branch remained dominant though down from it's previous intensity with winds generally 130 kts flowing fairly flat from off Australia over southern Chile. No significant troughs or areas of interest were indicated capable of supporting surface level storm or gale development. Over the next 72 hours (through Friday 7/7) no good change is forecast. A new ridge to build under New Zealand diving over the Ross Ice Shelf and into Antarctica reinforcing the total shutdown of the storm corridor there through the workweek (Fri 7/7). By the weekend a little trough is forecast to eventually building under New Zealand with 120 kt winds flowing over it and drifting east into the Southwest Pacific, possibly setting the stage for a more favorable environmental change, but this is just a prognosis at this time and far from certain.
At the surface on Tuesday (7/4) high pressure at 1028 mbs was centered in the Southeast Pacific driving the usual progression of eastward moving low pressure cells south and over Antarctic Ice, eliminating any swell generation potential. Another high was over the Tasman Sea driving storms tracking under New Zealand into the Ross Ice Shelf as well. A rather unfavorable pattern with no swell producing fetch indicated. Over the next 72 hours the Tasman Sea high is to track east taking up a position east of New Zealand and ridging well to the south, totally shutting things down in the Southwest Pacific while high pressure off Chile does the same in the East. No indication of any swell generation suggested.
Some fleeting fetch developed under New Zealand late Sunday (4/3) into Monday at 45 kts decaying to 30 kts, aimed somewhat towards Hawaii. 28 ft seas were modeled Monday at 57S 170E building in areal coverage in the evening with seas to 29 ft at 57S 175E then fading fast from 28 ft Tuesday AM (7/4) at 56S 178W. This was really just the decaying remnants of a stronger storm that formed under Australia. Limited swell likely pushing towards Hawaii with swell arriving Tuesday (7/11) at 1.6 ft @ 16 secs (2.5 ft faces) from 207 degrees.
A series of 3 small lows developed in the Southeast Pacific, one on Thursday (6/29) producing 28 ft seas just off the edge of the Ross Ice Shelf at 62S 127-140W for 12 hours possibly sending tiny swell north towards California. Another tiny low formed late Friday (6/30) generating near 30 ft seas for 12 hours at 40S 110W possibly adding a little size for the swell pushing towards South California. One more patch of 26 ft seas developed Saturday PM (7/1) at 60S 125W pushing northeast for 12 hours to 55S 120W adding a bit more duration to the existing swell above, but not much. All this to result in a series of small weak swells to hit Southern CA on Saturday (7/8) building to maybe 3 ft @ 14 secs (3-4 ft faces but likely much smaller) by Sunday from 185 degrees. This same swell to hit North CA on Sunday building to 2.6 ft @ 14-15 secs Monday (3.5 ft faces) from 180-185 degrees.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours high pressure to continue off California then shifting a bit more to the south and east by late next weekend, taking up a position directly north of Hawaii at 1028 mbs reinforcing trades for the Islands at 15-20 kts and continuing north winds along the California coast at 20-25 kts. The models suggest low pressure in the West Pacific to track to the Gulf of Alaska and bloom producing 35-40 kt fetch pushing 45 kts with 26 ft seas aimed at California and the Pacific Northwest Monday into Tuesday (7/11), but that's pure fantasy. Theoretically this low is to break down the high pressure ridge off California and the north winds off the coast to fade. We'll see what really happens.
Beyond 72 hours the unfavorable ridge in the upper levels is to continue shearing the top off any low pressure system trying to develop in the greater South Pacific. Over the weekend (Saturday 7/8) a broad 956 mb low is to try and organize under New Zealand with 45 kt winds over a decent sized area aimed northeast generating 32-35 ft seas, but then the whole thing is to track fast southeast over Antarctica late Sunday as the unfavorable jetstream flow starts flexing it's muscle. Nothing else to follow.
Details to follow...
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table