On Tuesday (6/26) Northern CA surf was waist to chest high and still pretty junky. South facing breaks in Santa Cruz were flat. Central California surf (Morro Bay) was waist to barely chest high on the sets and junky. Southern CA from Santa Barbara to just north of LA was maybe thigh high. The LA Area southward to Orange County was thigh high at the best breaks. Southward from Orange County into San Diego best breaks were thigh high and weak. The North Shore of Oahu was flat. The South Shore was thigh high. The East Shore report was not available.
North/Central California was getting the last bit's of weak locally generated windswell. Southern California was getting very small wrap-around northwest windswell at select locations. Hawaii was flat on the North Shore with very weak windswell on the South Shore and moderate local windswell on the East Shore. Fading local short period windswell is all that's expected in California and even that to be gone in a day or so. Local windswell to continue for Hawaii focused on the East Shore. The future looks a little brighter, especially for Hawaii with a storm system having already pushed from the Tasman Sea east over New Zealand and into the Pacific, then fading early this week. Swell is in the water pushing north directly towards Hawaii with lesser energy decaying as it attempts to make the long track towards California, but at a slightly less than ideal angle. See details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis.cgius forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
Tuesdays jetstream charts (6/26) for the North Pacific indicated a very weak flow working it's way up to the intersection of the Aleutians, then dipping southeast as it moved over the Gulf of Alaska about ready to push onshore over Oregon. But winds were barely 100 kts not offering any real fuel for surface level low pressure development. Over the next 72 hours energy levels to come up in the trough in the Gulf to the 130 kt range Wednesday (6/27) then fading quickly beyond, but the trough still holding it's cohesiveness. Limited support for surface level low pressure development in the Gulf. Beyond 72 hours more of the same is forecast with the trough in the Gulf continuing with winds in to 110 kts providing limited support for surface level low pressure development.
At the surface today high very weak low pressure was in the northern Gulf of Alaska generating no winds of interest. High pressure at 1028 mbs was 800 nmiles due north of Hawaii ridging east into California and generating limited northwest winds to 20 kts and short period windswell along the coast there. Of slightly more interest, it was also enhancing trades some over the Hawaiian Islands to the 20 kts range, helping to force a little short period windswell there too along eastern shores. No other weather systems of interest were indicated. Over the next 72 hrs the high pressure system is to hold north of Hawaii drifting slightly more to the west (retrograding) shutting down the northerly wind flow along the California coast and putting an end to local windswell there by Thursday (6/28). As the high drifts west, easterly winds at 20-25 kts are expected to continue pushing over the Hawaiian Islands into Thursday (6/28) then fading as the high moves too far to the west. Relatively shore period local windswell should continue along eastern shores during that timeframe.
No tropical systems of interest were being tracked at this time.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
California Offshore Forecast
On Tuesday (6/26) high pressure at 1026 mbs remained well out to sea but was ridging far enough east to continue a steady flow of north winds at 20-25 kts centered between Pt Conception and Cape Mendocino (south of the ideal location) generating the usual short period windslop and providing no significant gap nearshore for an eddy flow to develop. That pattern to break down late Wednesday as very weak low pressure moves in from the north, allowing only a smidgen of fetch remaining off Pt Conception and a relatively calm pattern to the north. The low to be gone by late Friday (6/29) and weak high pressure is to return but still focused well to the south, with 15 kt winds over North CA and 20-25 kts north winds only near Point Conception. No real windswell though chop to persist into Monday (7/2). The fetch to start moving north after that, but not very strong or supportive of windswell development.
Tuesdays jetstream charts (6/26) for the South Pacific indicated a mild trough pushing well to the north over the Southwest Pacific peaking just east of northern New Zealand. To the east a big ridge remained in control pushing south directly into Antarctica near 120W totally blocking the storm corridor there. The trough was the only area of interest, but winds were quite modest running through it except at it's peak where it was crashing into the northern branch of the jet there with winds to 170 kts. limited support for gale development in that area. Over the next 72 hours through Friday (6/29) the trough east of New Zealand to continue drifting east and upper level winds to only increase, theoretically to 190 kts late Thursday into Friday and blowing up a good portion of the western side of the trough. From this perspective there decent support for intensification of low pressure down at the oceans surface. At the same time a big ridge is to be building under Australia, pushing into Antarctica and signaling a renewed trend towards lack of storm development in the days beyond. Beyond 72 hours the strong upper level winds flowing over the trough are to then start flowing down it's eastern side towards Antarctica, pushing any surface level energy in that same direction, away from our target forecast areas. At the same time the trough is to be getting steeper and more pinched, signaling it's demise by early in the coming weekend. Meanwhile a fully .cgiit jetstream is to be building back to the west with the southern branch sweeping flat over Antarctica and the northern branch flowing flat west to east, providing no support for surface level gale development.
At the surface today the fading remnants of a storm/gale that was east of New Zealand continue circulating there, but with only limited 30-35 kts fetch aimed north towards Hawaii with limited 27 ft seas modeled pushing the same way (see New Zealand Storm below). To the east high pressure at 1028 mbs holds control of the Southeastern Pacific pushing all the way south to Antarctica. No other weather features of interest were indicated. Over the next 72 hours high pressure to retain control of the Southeast Pacific not giving up one inch of ground and if anything, strengthening. The system near New Zealand provides the best chance of providing any swell, with limited redevelopment forecast (see details below).
New Zealand Storm
Late Wednesday (6/20) a new storm organized well south of Tasmania with pressure 956 mbs and winds building to 50 kts over a small area at 57S 140E aimed northeast and barely in the Hawaiian-Fiji swell window (208 degrees) that goes through the Tasman Sea.
By Thursday AM (6/21) winds continued at 45-50 kts at 50S 150E again on the eastern edge of the Hawaiian swell window, but pushing energy up into it. Seas were modeled at 32 ft at 57S 140E. The low held in the evening with winds still 45-50 kts at 44S 162E again right on the very edge of the swell window relative to Hawaii. Seas were modeled at 35 ft at 52S 150E. The Jason-1 satellite made a pass over the western edge of the fetch and reported seas at 31 ft at 49S 150E, completely consistent with the WW3 wave model.
By Friday AM (6/22) the fetch was impacting New Zealand at 40-45 kts but was totally obscured by land. The Jason-1 satellite reported seas of near 30 ft on the very edge of the Hawaiian swell window at 43S 165E, consistent with the wave model output. In the evening the low was reorganizing well southeast of New Zealand just off Antarctica with pressure 944 mbs with a broad area of 40 kts winds pushing northeast up the eastern coast of New Zealand at 50S 171E pushing right up the 201 degree great circle path to Hawaii and equally well up the 221 degree path to California. The ocean was not yet fully responding to this new wind source.
On Saturday (6/23) 50 kts winds were developing almost under the low over Antarctic Ice with only 30-35 kts winds persisting east of New Zealand. The models suggested a small area of 30 ft seas at 45S 178E pushing towards Hawaii up the 201 degree path and the 220 degree path to California, but likely too small to have much impact on the later. In the evening 50 kts winds were confirmed at 55S 168E blowing right up the 201 degree path to Hawaii and 30 degrees north of the 215 degree path to California. 29 ft seas were holding just east of New Zealand at 45S 180W.
On Sunday AM (6/24) finally a good fetch of 40-45 kts south winds started pushing north from the low at 55S 170E generating a new area of 32 ft sea at the same location aimed right at Hawaii up the 201 degree path and 20 degrees north of the 213 degree path to California. In the evening the fetch started fading down to 35 kts at 50S 175E with 32 ft seas at 50S 173E aimed the same way as all previous readings.
By Monday AM (6/25) a broad fetch was still in.cgiace aimed north but only at 30 kts with stronger winds pushing off Antarctic Ice. Sea were fading from 28 ft at 50S 178E. Nothing by nightfall of interest expected with seas fading from 27 ft at 53S 180W.
Current data suggest some form of decent 17-18 sec period swell seems likely for Hawaii pushing from the Tasman Sea northward, but will likely experience some grating and commensurate size reduction thanks to Fiji and surrounding Islands. The Wavewatch III wam does not recognize these islands as existing, so any output from it regarding swell heights will be overstated. But a second burst of larger size expected to follow for the Islands from when the storm moved clear of New Zealand thanks to it's close proximity (4623-4937 nmiles) and good aim. Much less size expected for California due to the long travel distance (6110-6528 nmiles) and the rather off-angle heading.
Hawaii: Expect swell hitting the Hawaiian Islands by Friday (6/29) with swell maybe 2 ft @ 17 secs (3-4 ft faces) building to 3.0 ft @ 15-16 secs (4.5 ft faces) on Saturday AM (6/30). Swell fading from 3 ft @ 14-15 secs (4.0-4.5 ft faces) Sunday AM (7/1). New swell to start arriving from when the storm started getting east of New Zealand Monday AM (7/2) at 3.1-3.4 ft @ 16-17 secs (5-6 ft faces) filling in through the day and maxing late with intermixed smaller swell from the Fiji corridor. Primary swell fading from 3.3 ft @ 15 secs (5 ft faces) Tuesday AM (7/3). Swell Direction 208 & 199-201 degrees.
South California: Possible small energy sneaking in from under New Zealand Monday (7/2) with swell 1-2 ft @ 17 secs (2.5 ft faces) from 220 degrees but odds low. This swell to continue Tuesday at 2 ft @ 16 secs (3 ft faces), but odds low. Expect real swell arrival starting Wednesday AM (7/4) with period 17 secs and size building to 2.6 ft @ 16 secs late (4 ft faces). Swell holding at 2.4-2.6 ft @ 15 secs Thursday (3.5-4.0 ft faces early) . Swell fading from 2.5 ft @ 14 secs Friday mid-day (3.5 ft faces). Swell Direction: 213-216 degrees
North California: Possible small energy sneaking in from under New Zealand Monday (7/2) with swell 1-2 ft @ 17 secs (2.5 ft faces) from 220 degrees, but odds low. This swell to continue Tuesday at 2 ft @ 16 secs (3 ft faces), but odds low. Expect real swell arrival starting Wednesday AM (7/4) with period 17 secs and size building to 2.6 ft @ 16 secs late (4 ft faces). Swell holding at 2.4-2.6 ft @ 15 secs Thursday (3.5-4.0 ft faces early) . Swell fading from 2.5 ft @ 14 secs Friday mid-day (3.5 ft faces). Swell Direction: 211-214 degrees
New Zealand Storm Rejuvenation
The models suggest some degree of rejuvenation of this system starting Thursday AM (7/28) with a fragmented fetch of south winds at 35 kts at 33S 155W aimed well towards Tahiti and Hawaii up the 180 degree paths. 20 ft seas forecast at 30S 160W. In the evening winds to build to 45 kts over a tiny area at 35S 145W embedded in a broader area of 30-35 kts winds again aimed north. 22 ft seas forecast at 34S 165W, with larger seas already aimed south towards Antarctica.
Friday AM (7/29) 45 kts winds to build slightly in areal coverage, but taking aim more to the northeast and east and changing direction fast, limiting it's foothold on any one square inch of the oceans surface. 25 ft seas forecast at 32S 155W aimed north towards Hawaii, Tahiti and California. In the evening only lingering 30-35 kt fetch to be aimed north, with most winds taking aimed towards Antarctica. 25 ft seas still modeled at 35S 155W aimed like before. This system to be dead.
25 ft seas to hold into Saturday AM at 32S 152W mainly from previous days fetch and fading fast.
If this occurs as modeled some form of 14 sec period swell is likely for Hawaii and California, though well decayed size wise upon arrival. It will most likely just look like a continuation of the swell forecast above, serving only to extend it's shelf-life.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours high pressure to hold near the dateline putting it's easterly winds mostly out of reach of Hawaii with windswell there on the decline by Friday (6/29). But another weak 1024 mbs high is to develop just west of Pt Conception, continuing a moderate but confined area of north winds there in the 25 kt range, possibly setting up very weak windswell for extreme Southern California. That high to slowly work it's way north early next week (7/2) slowly allowing the core of the fetch to move north towards Cape Mendocino putting the windswell's focus more towards Central CA. But even at that, it's to be very weak and small.
Beyond 72 hours the remnants of the New Zealand gale to continue trying to push east into the eastern Central Pacific, but most energy to start moving into it's eastern quadrant aimed south towards Antarctica, and then totally gone and crashing into land there by Sunday (7/1). Virtually no fetch of any interest forecast beyond that.
Details to follow...
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6th Annual Jay Moriarity Memorial Paddleboard Race: Saturday June 23rd 2007. Surftech is presenting the 6th Annual Jay Moriarity Memorial Paddleboard Race. The “Jay Race” is considered one of the premiere paddleboard races on the West Coast attracting the states best paddlers to compete in the challenging waters of the Monterey Bay. is the 12-mile race course that start's and finishes at beautiful New Brighton State Beach in Aptos and loops through the kelp beds of the Monterey Bay. In addition to the 12 mile race, there will be a 2 mile Short Course and Youth Races for paddlers of all levels. The 2 mile race is an opportunity for paddlers of all levels to compete.” It's about sharing the spirit and stoke that Jay shared with everyone” With this spirit in mind, many competitors partaking in the 12 mile race offer their boards to newer competitors to use in the shorter race. With the 12 mile race starting at 8:30 am, the other races begin mid day with the awards being presented at around 2:00 pm. For more information:
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Jason-1 Satellite Data On-line and Improved!: Our Jason-1 satellite data was upgraded yet again Wednesday PM (6/6) and is now operating better than ever. We've added a feature that averages the data every 15 measurements on the local views and every 50 measurements on the global view (1 measurement every 3 nautical miles) and overlays the results onto the wave model chart. Both the single highest measurement on the chart and the highest 15 measurement average are posted at the bottom of each chart. This seems to work real well and compensates for the very spiky nature of the raw data coming off the satellite. So we now have an effective way to verify the accuracy (or lack of) the wave model output. See the data here: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_alt.html
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Surfing's Greatest Misadventures: We've been reading a great book of short stories all based around surfing adventures, but not in classical sense. These are stories of surf trips gone bad, personal growth and realizations while on surf trips, silly things that happen while surfing right on up to horrifying shark attacks, and some great nostalgic tails of surfers versus the Marines at Trestles back in the early days. A truly enjoyable, easy to read and entertaining look at the culture and pe.cgie that make up the surf community. Check it out here: http://www.thesurfbook.com
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table