On Saturday (6/23) Northern CA surf was chest to head high and real junky. South facing breaks in Santa Cruz were flat. Central California surf (Morro Bay) was waist to chest high on the sets and junky. Southern CA from Santa Barbara to just north of LA was effectively flat. The LA Area southward to Orange County was thigh high at the best breaks. Southward from Orange County into San Diego best breaks were maybe thigh high and junky. The North Shore of Oahu was flat. The South Shore was thigh high. The East Shore report was not available.
North/Central California was getting a little bit bigger but still was nothing more than weak short period locally generated windswell. Southern California was getting small wrap around northwest windswell at select locations. Hawaii was effectively flat north and south with small windswell on the East Shore. Local short period windswell remains the name of the game in both California and Hawaii today and for the next 5 days or more. The bulk of the southern hemi remains locked down by an unfavorable upper level high pressure system that is preventing storms from forming. That said, a storm has formed in the South Tasman sea pushing northeast and is over New Zealand. It has likely already generated some swell pushing north towards Hawaii through the little Fiji window and is expected to push east into the greater Pacific late this weekend into early next week, though with much diminished strength. Still it is now modeled to be enough to generate more swell for Hawaii and maybe a little for select breaks in California. But even more important, it might actually help clear out high pressure from the Pacific opening the door to something better in the future. But consider that last statement more rampant speculation than anything firm at this time. Still, it's hope, and that all we have to hang on to. See details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis.cgius forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
Saturdays jetstream charts (6/23) for the North Pacific indicated a very weak flow meandering just south of the Aleutians providing no fuel whatsoever for surface level low pressure development. Over the next 72 hours energy levels to come up some with a weak trough off Kamchatka rising into a ridge over the dateline then dropping into a little but stronger trough in the northeastern Gulf of Alaska pushing into the Pacific Northwest late. Maybe some hope in the Gulf but not much. Beyond 72 hours more of the same is forecast but with the trough in the Gulf taking center stage with winds building there to near 120 kts by Thursday (6/28) pushing hard south down but off the coast of San Francisco then pushing onshore there late Friday. A trough is to persist in that region into next weekend. Some support for surface level low pressure development.
At the surface today high pressure at 1032 mbs was 900 nmiles due north of Hawaii ridging east into California and generating the commensurate northwest winds and sort period windswell along the coast there. It was also forcing trades a little over the Hawaiian Islands, but not much. No other weather systems of interest were indicated. Over the next 72 hrs the high pressure system is to drift southeast providing a little more energy for development of a pressure gradient along the Central California coast with winds expected to hold at 25 kts into Monday (6/25) and slowly becoming centered more to the north. The result to be more weak short period local windswell from San Francisco southward, with a little wrapping into Southern CA. As the high drifts east more easterly winds are expected to get a foothold pushing over the Hawaiian Islands, starting Sunday and continuing into Tuesday (6/26) and getting stronger at that time, pushing the 20-25 kt mark and covering a fair sized area. Windswell should be on the increase is this occurs.
No tropical systems of interest were being tracked at this time.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
California Offshore Forecast
On Saturday (6/23) high pressure at 1032 mbs was well out to sea ridging into the coast and providing a steady flow of north winds at 20-25 kts centered between Pt Conception and Cape Mendocino (south of the ideal location) generating the usual short period windslop and providing no gap nearshore for an eddy flow to develop. That pattern to hold into Monday then start fading on Tuesday, and never move off the coast at all. The result to be a steady onshore flow from Pt Conception northward, though Southern CA to get a fraction of the windswell and a little better local winds with eddy conditions in control. By Wednesday the gradient to be gone with only local winds slowly fading off. Near calm winds to be in control by Thursday continuing into next weekend with no indication of local windswell in the picture.
Saturdays jetstream charts (6/23) for the South Pacific indicated big ridge pushing south directly into Antarctica and the Ross Ice Shelf totally blocking the storm corridor there. One ray of hope was a trough that was still hanging on in the far Western Pacific pushing directly over New Zealand with winds 130 kts trying to make headway out into the exposed waters of the Pacific. This trough had decent potential to support surface level low pressure development. Over the next 72 hours through Tuesday (6/26) the trough just east of New Zealand to weaken but not give up providing an area for surface level low pressure to continue but not build. The trough is to slowly drift east and continue pushing north eventually tapping energy in the northern branch of the jetstream there. By Tuesday winds to 160 kts are modeled at the apex of the trough, perhaps setting the stage for more development at the surface in the days ahead. Beyond 72 hours the trough east of New Zealand to look a little better with 170 kts winds flowing around it's apex Wednesday (6/27) building to 190 kts Thursday and looking reasonably interesting. This to hold into Saturday (6/30) and moving to the Central Pacific, a rather recent development and looking most encouraging to support surface level low pressure development with energy aimed north. But though these winds are to be strong, they're not to have much depth respective to flowing over a long area up the troughs west side, likely limiting potential for development at the oceans surface. Behind the trough another big ridge is to be building southward pushing towards the Ross Ice Shelf, likely meaning a quick demise to whatever good comes of the New Zealand trough.
At the surface today a big gale was in control of the Western Pacific with pressure 944 mbs and pushing a broad area of 35 kt winds to the north and east. This system has been in.cgiay for several days now (see New Zealand Storm below). Otherwise high pressure at 1032 mbs was in control of the Southeastern Pacific pushing to Antarctic Ice and pretty much shutting things down. Over the next 72 hours high pressure to retain control of the Southeast and Central Pacific with no hope indicated. The system near New Zealand provides the beset chances (see details below).
New Zealand Storm
Late Wednesday (6/20) a new storm organized well south of Tasmania with pressure 956 mbs and winds building to 50 kts over a small area at 57S 140E aimed northeast and barely in the Hawaiian-Fiji swell window (208 degrees) that goes through the Tasman Sea.
By Thursday AM (6/21) winds were down to 40-45 kts at 54S 150E again right on the very eastern edge of the Hawaiian swell window, but pushing energy up into it. Seas were modeled at 32 ft at 57S 140E. The low blossomed in the evening with winds back up to 40-45 kts at 43S 162E again right on the very edge of the swell window relative to Hawaii.Seas were modeled at 35 ft at 52S 150E. The Jason-1 satellite made a pass over the western edge of the fetch and reported seas at 31 ft at 49S 150E, completely consistent with the WW3 wave model.
By Friday AM (6/22) the fetch was impacting New Zealand at 40-45 kts but was totally obscured by land. The Jason-1 satellite reported seas of near 30 ft on the very edge of the Hawaiian swell window at 43S 165E, consistent with the wave model output. In the evening the low was reorganizing well southeast of New Zealand just off Antarctica with pressure 944 mbs with a broad area of 40 kts winds pushing northeast up the eastern coast of New Zealand at 50S 171E pushing right up the 201 degree great circle path to Hawaii and equally well up the 221 degree path to California. The ocean was not yet fully responding to this new wind source.
On Saturday (6/23) 50 kts winds were developing almost under the low over Antarctic Ice with only 30-35 kts winds persisting east of New Zealand. The models suggested a small area of 30 ft seas at 45S 178E pushing towards Hawaii up the 201 degree path and the 220 degree path to California, but likely too small to have much impact on the later. In the evening more of the same is forecast with 29 ft seas holding just east of New Zealand at 45S 180W.
On Sunday AM (6/24) finally a good fetch of 40-45 kts south winds is to start pushing north from the low at 53S 170E generating a new area of 30 ft sea at the same location aimed right at Hawaii up the 201 degree path and less so for California up the 221 degree path. In the evening the fetch is to start fading down to 35 kts at 50S 175E with 32 ft seas in the same.cgiace aimed the same way as all previous readings.
By Monday AM (6/25) a broad fetch is to still be in.cgiace aimed north but only at 30 kts. Sea to be fading fast from 29-30 ft at 47S 175E. Nothing by nightfall expected.
Current data suggest some for of 17-18 sec period swell seems likely for Hawaii pushing from the Tasman Sea northward, but will likely experience some grating and commensurate size reduction thanks to Fiji and surrounding Islands. The Wavewatch III wam does not recognize these islands as existing, so any output from it regarding swell heights will be overstated. Still preliminary data suggest some form of rideable swell to be hitting the Hawaiian Islands by Friday (6/29) with swell maybe 2 ft @ 17 secs building to perhaps 3.0 ft @ 15-16 secs on Saturday (6/30) attributable from when the storm started getting east of New Zealand, but this is very preliminary. Swell Direction 208 & 201 degrees.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours high pressure to start retrograding back to the west and the pressure gradient off California is to weaken Tuesday in to Wednesday (6/27) then all but disappear by Thursday, with windswell fading with it. Some form of very weak low pressure is modeled in the southeastern Gulf of Alaska starting about Thursday continuing into next weekend possibly setting up a gradient and 20-25 kt northwest winds well out at seas, proving a hint of slightly longer period windswell then, but not much. Of more interest is to be the big surge is the high as it reestablishes itself north of Hawaii by Wednesday generating a solid fetch of 20-25 kt east wind pushing over the Islands into Friday and generating a bit larger than normal tradewind swell. Might be kinda interesting on eastern shores. But even that to fade by Saturday (6/30) with nothing else to take it's.cgiace.
Beyond 72 hours the remnants of the New Zealand gale as to continue pushing northeast into the Central Pacific and forcing high pressure to the east almost to Chile. But the big problem is this system is to never really get any legs, with winds generally hovering in the 30-35 kts range and seas 23-27 ft, though aimed well north and covering a solid area. Tahiti will likely see something from this, but period to be unremarkable. No other swell producing systems forecast.
Details to follow...
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6th Annual Jay Moriarity Memorial Paddleboard Race: Saturday June 23rd 2007. Surftech is presenting the 6th Annual Jay Moriarity Memorial Paddleboard Race. The “Jay Race” is considered one of the premiere paddleboard races on the West Coast attracting the states best paddlers to compete in the challenging waters of the Monterey Bay. is the 12-mile race course that start's and finishes at beautiful New Brighton State Beach in Aptos and loops through the kelp beds of the Monterey Bay. In addition to the 12 mile race, there will be a 2 mile Short Course and Youth Races for paddlers of all levels. The 2 mile race is an opportunity for paddlers of all levels to compete.” It's about sharing the spirit and stoke that Jay shared with everyone” With this spirit in mind, many competitors partaking in the 12 mile race offer their boards to newer competitors to use in the shorter race. With the 12 mile race starting at 8:30 am, the other races begin mid day with the awards being presented at around 2:00 pm. For more information:
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Surfing's Greatest Misadventures: We've been reading a great book of short stories all based around surfing adventures, but not in classical sense. These are stories of surf trips gone bad, personal growth and realizations while on surf trips, silly things that happen while surfing right on up to horrifying shark attacks, and some great nostalgic tails of surfers versus the Marines at Trestles back in the early days. A truly enjoyable, easy to read and entertaining look at the culture and pe.cgie that make up the surf community. Check it out here: http://www.thesurfbook.com
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table