On Tuesday (10/11) Northern CA surf was shoulder to head high and jumbled from fog wind. South facing breaks were waist to chest high. Central California surf was shoulder to head high. Southern CA breaks from Santa Barbara to just north of LA were waist to chest high at the best breaks though most were smaller. The LA area southward into Orange County was waist high with best break to chest high. Southward to San Diego waves were waist to chest high. The North Shore of Oahu was waist to chest high. The South Shore was waist high. The East Shore was waist to chest high.
Summer is officially over and Fall has arrived. the evidence is in the water and expected to become more obvious in the coming days assuming the models are right. No break get's any honors today not for lack of something to ride, because just about everywhere is rideable. But the conditions aren't pristine and the swell isn't pumping. The short synopsis is that one storm has crossed the dateline with decent swell from it pushing towards Hawaii and California. And another is forecast off Oregon, with a much stronger one is on the charts behind that forming North of Hawaii and pushing into the Gulf early in the weekend. Both these to produce some real energy from California with the second one sending solid sideband energy towards Hawaii too. Looks like Fall is here. See details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Tuesday (10/11) the jetstream continued strong pushing generally west to east with pockets of wind energy at 150 kts. But by the weekend a big ridge is forecast pushing off Siberia directing all storm energy into the Bering Sea. Fortunately there are suggestions that is to be short lived. Today at the surface the remnants of the dateline low were pushing into the Gulf of Alaska (see Dateline Storm below) and were fading out. Otherwise high pressure at 1024 mbs was centered northeast of Hawaii with another pocket of 1024 mb high pressure was spilling over the Kuril Islands southeast towards the dateline. North winds at 20-25 kts continued off North California turning west and blowing over Hawaii in the 20 kts range, tracking along the southern boundary of the high. These winds were making for generally short period windswell at both locations.
Over the next 72 hours a very active storm pattern is suggested focused in the Central Gulf of Alaska. On Thursday AM (10/13) a modest low of tropical origin is to be reach the dateline a begin rapidly deepening with pressure 980 mbs by nightfall and lifting east-northeast. 45-50 kts winds forecast in it's south quadrant centered at 40N 175W aimed east and building. By Friday AM (10/14) the storm is to have pressure 960 mbs with 55-60 kt winds and patches to hurricane force forecast positioned in it's south and west quadrant centered at 43N 170W and aimed at Hawaii down the 337 degree great circle path and at California right down the 297 degree path. Seas 22 ft and building fast. The storm is to continuing on a northeast track. By nightfall pressure to be down to 952 mbs with 55-60 kt winds continuing in it's south and west quadrants centered at 45N 161W aimed at Hawaii down the 347 degree path and at California down the 299 degree path. Seas forecast at 40 ft centered at 44N 165W. By Saturday AM (10/15) a quick decline to set in with residual 40-50 kt winds aimed mostly at targets north of California with nothing at Hawaii. Winds aimed 25 degree north of California down the 299 degree path. Seas from previous days fetch to be 39 ft centered at 46N 157W. This system to be gone by nightfall with residual 37 ft seas forecast at 48N 150W.
This is to be a strong yet compact storm. If all this play out at forecast a near significant class swell could result for California since the bulk of the fetch is to be aimed right down their great circle paths. Hawaii to potentially get some decent swell too, but the fetch is to be pushing sideways through their swell, not getting good purchase on the oceans surface thereby limiting their ability to generate seas pushing south. Utility class swell is more likely for the Islands.
While the storm above is doing it's thing yet another more local storm is forecast off Oregon starting Friday AM (10/14) with pressure at 990 mbs with 45-50 kt winds suggested in it's west quadrant centered at 45N 135W aimed right at NCal down the 310 degree path. Seas building to 23 ft centered at 45N 132W By nightfall the core of the low is to be nearly over the Vancouver Island coast with residual 40 kt fetch aimed somewhat at NCal down the 315 degree path. Seas 25 ft centered at 45N 130W. By Saturday AM (10/15) this system is to be on land with no fetch remaining over exposed waters. If this system develops as forecast a very north angled swell of size could push down into North CA. Will monitor.
On Sunday AM (10/9) a new low started pushing off the southern Kamchatka Peninsula with pressure 972 mbs with confirmed west winds 50 kts pushing down the 308 degree path to California and the 324 degree path to Hawaii, aimed at a point mid-way between the two locations. By the evening the storm tracked east directly over the Aleutians with pressure holding and a reasonably broad area of 45-50 kt west winds confirmed centered at 49N 173E aimed due east or east of the 325 degree path to Hawaii and right down the 308 degree path to California. Seas were modeled at 35 ft centered at 50N 170E. Not much change occurred on Monday AM (10/10) as the storm pushed over the dateline with 40-50 kt winds holding at 47N 178W aimed due east cutting across the 331 degree path to Hawaii but aimed right up the 306 degree path to California. Seas were modeled up to 37 ft centered at 48N 175W. By nightfall things really were winding down with winds 30-35kts over an elongated area centered at 45N 171W aimed right at California down the 300-305 degree path but pretty much at a 80 degree angle to any path into Hawaii, ending their fetch. Seas dropped to 33 ft centered at 47N 177W. Residual 25-30 kt fetch continued into Tuesday AM (10/11) but at that velocity it was not sufficient to generate additional decent swell energy. This system was dead. No decent Jason-1 or GFO satellite passes occurred to confirm sea heights, but the wavewatch model projections appear right on track.
In all this was a nice well-behaved little storm. Nothing remarkable about it other than it was the strongest one of the early Fall season. It was positioned too far away from California (2418-2897 nmiles) resulting in a bit of swell decay and the fetch was aimed too east to favor Hawaii (1777-2272 nmiles). This to result in near-equal sized swell pushing into both locations with solid winter utility class size in the a 17 sec period range expected.
Expect swell arrival on Oahu's North Shore in the very early hours of Thursday (10/13) with period at 18 secs and coming up fast. Swell to peak near 10 AM HST with swell 6.5-7.1 ft @ 16 secs (10-11 ft faces) holding through the day. Period dropping to 14 secs overnight with sizeable 6 ft @ 13-14 sec residuals continuing at sunrise Friday (10/14) and fading steadily from there (7.5-8.5 ft faces). Swell Direction: 324-331
North CA: Expect swell arrival Friday (10/14) morning at 3 AM with tiny energy building. Swell to peak near 3 PM with swell 6.8-7.2 ft @ 16-17 secs (10-12 ft faces). Decent energy to continue overnight with period settling down to 14 secs by 8 AM Saturday (10/15) and swell 6 ft @ 14 secs (7.5-8.5 ft faces), fading to 13 sec near sunset. Another decent warmup swell but a notch more energetic than the previous ones. Swell Direction: 302-308 degrees
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
California Offshore Forecast
On Tuesday (10/11) high pressure at 1024 mbs remained centered northeast of Hawaii ridging into the Pacific Northwest. this was continuing a steady northerly flow over the out coastal waters focused in the Pt Arena to Cape Mendocino area. This basic pattern is to continue through Thursday (10/13) with minor variation from day to day. Then on Friday (10/14) the high is to retreat as low pressure rapidly builds just off the Oregon coast, pushing into Vancouver Island early Saturday (10/15) with high pressure building in fast behind it. As a result raging north winds to build along the California coast early continuing through the day. A quick retreat is forecast though by Sunday with favorable conditions expected through mid-next week.
The 5 Day wind forecast is now included with the surf & swell overview in the QuikCAST's.
No swell generating fetch of interest forecast.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours yet another low is forecast for the Central Gulf on Monday (10/17). It's to be start north of Hawaii lifting slowly northeast with 45-50 kt winds aimed right at North CA and the Pacific Northwest. A slow fade is expected on Tuesday (10/18) with 35-40 kts winds continuing to be aimed at NCal. 23 ft seas forecast from this one.
Otherwise strong high pressure at 1032 mbs is forecast to develop over the dateline by Friday (10/14) closing the Aleutian Storm Corridor at least for the short-term. The models suggest it's to moderate and sink southeast becoming not much of a factor by mid-next week. Low pressure is to be stacking up behind it over Siberia.
At the surface beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems forecast. Monitoring on an exception basis only now.
Details to follow...
Down the Line: Powerlines Production movie guru's Curt Myers and Eric W. Nelson unleash their latest creation which explores the big wave conditions in Hawaii, California and Chile last year. Includes footage from Peahi, the Mavericks Surf Contest and Ghost Trees. See it Oct 21st at 7 and 9 PM in Santa Cruz. More details here: http://www.powerlinesproductions.com
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Rob Gilley Photgraphy: Please take amoment to check out the selection of limited print images availabe at Rob Gilleys webite. All images in the 2005 line were taken by Rob Gilley, an 19 year Surfer Magazine staff photographer, and are personally signed and numbered by him: http://www.pacificsurfgallery.com
Tutorial on the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) Presented by Dr. Roland Madden: If you're interested in El Nino and the MJO, have a basic understanding of El Nino, and you have broadband connection, audio and Macromedia Flash installed, then the following presentation is a must see. Dr Madden present a great overview of how the MJO works. And there's nothing like hearing it straight from the founders mouth. Link here: http://meted.ucar.edu/climate/mjo/mjonav0.htm
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table