PACIFIC OVERVIEW
On
Tuesday (9/11) Northern CA surf was waist high and junky. South
facing breaks in Santa Cruz were flat. Central California surf
(Morro Bay) was thigh high with luck. Surf in Southern CA from
Santa Barbara to just north of LA was essentially flat. The LA
Area southward to Orange County was thigh high and blown. South
Orange County down into San Diego best breaks were maybe waist
high though most were something less. The North Shore of Oahu
was waist high. The South Shore was thigh high. The East Shore
was waist high.
North/Central California was
getting no swell at all, be it ground swell or windswell from
either the north or south. Southern California was in the lake
zone with no swell coming from either the north or south. Hawaii
was getting a little northeast and east windswell combo on the
East Shore, but the size was very marginal. A little windswell
was still hitting the North Shore. A tiny pulse of 17 sec background
swell was hitting the South Shore, but inconsistent. No southern
hemi swell or windswell is forecast for the next few days for
either Hawaii or California. But a gale formed under New Zealand
mid-last week and has generated enough wind to produce small
to moderate swell pushing towards our forecast area. That swell
swell should arrive in Hawaii near Thursday and push on into
California for Saturday and beyond. Another gale organized behind
it, but smaller. And yet another is trying to develop right now
forecast to push more to the north, providing yet equal; odds
for more small to moderate swell for both Hawaii and California.
Up in the North Pacific a gale tried to organize over the dateline,
but most of it's energy was landlocked in the Bering Sea. Another
is forecast in the Gulf of Alaska this weekend, but it's winds
to all aimed at Canada. Another dateline system is scheduled
this coming weekend, and has only a minimal shot at actually
being productive. So it's southern hemi swell for now, with the
North Pacific trying to wake up out of a long slumber. See details
below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis.cgius forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
North Pacific
Overview
Tuesdays jetstream charts (9/11) for the North Pacific indicated a nice little
steep trough pushing down through the Bering Sea past the Aleutians poking
down into the North Pacific with 140 kt winds on it's southwestern edge/
Decent support for surface level low pressure development suggested. A strong
ridge was east of there filling the Gulf of Alaska and pushing the jet well
north into Alaska. Over the next 72 hours the dateline trough to quickly
fade on Wednesday being pushed north while new energy pushes off Kamchatka
flowing flat to the east just barley under the Aleutians. No support for
surface level low pressure development suggested. Beyond 72 hours a repeat
is forecast, with a new trough trying to set up over the dateline just south
of the Aleutians early next week, starting to develop while a big ridge builds
east of it through Wednesday (9/19). Some support for surface level low pressure
possible.
Note: We've
made a major upgrade to our jetstream forecast models. They now
includes topographic landmasses with the jet flowing over it.
As before, wind speeds less than 50 kts are masked out. Take
a look here:( NPac, SPac )
At
the surface today high pressure at 1028 mbs was in control of
the Eastern Gulf of Alaska riding into Northern Canada and locking
down the Eastern Pacific. Low pressure at 984 mbs was in the
Central Bering Sea as it has for the past 24 hours generating
limited 25-30 kt northwest winds blowing over the Western Aleutians
and generating 17 ft seas pushing towards mainly Hawaii. Maybe
limited hope for defined but very small windswell pushing that
direction. Weak low pressure, the remnants of Tropical Storm
Danas were tracking east towards the dateline from a point off
Northern Japan generating a tiny fetch of 35 kt west winds. In
all a pretty uneventful pattern. Over the next 72 hours through
Friday (9/14) the Bering Sea gale fade out completely, landlocked
behind the Aleutians. The remnants of TS Danas to continue east
reaching the Gulf and starting to move north deflected by moderate
high pressure off California, but with no significant development
forecast. No other swell producing fetch indicated.
On
Thursday and Friday (9/7) a low pressure system in the Western
Bering Sea generated a small fetch of 30 kt winds near 45N 175E
just west of the dateline aimed southeast well down the 328 degree
great circle path to Hawaii. Seas were modeled at 15 ft. Maybe
a small pulse of windswell to arrive on the North Shore
of Oahu Tuesday afternoon (9/11) at 2.4 ft @ 11-12 secs
(2.5 ft faces) pushing to 2.6 ft @ 11 secs Wednesday (2.5-3.0
ft faces). Swell Direction 328 degrees.
Tropics
Tropical Storm Danas was just east of the Kuril Islands tracking east at 28
kts with sustained winds to 45 kts, though satellite imagery says something
less. This one is gone though possible redevelopment could occur later
this week as it reaches the Gulf of Alaska.
No
other systems were being monitored.
North
Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface
Pressure/Wind - Sea
Height - Surf
Height
California
Offshore Forecast
On
Tuesday (9/11) high pressure at 1026 mbs was pushing
into Northern Canada and not producing any fetch of interest
along the US coast. A secondary high at 1018 mbs was
off Pt Conception generating a fetch of 15-20 kt north
winds over the Channel Islands into Southern CA making
for some chop there but nothing more. Otherwise rather
light winds were occurring over the rest of North and
Central CA. No change is forecast through Saturday then
new high pressure at 1024 mbs to becoming more consolidated
north of Hawaii and pushing east. It to finally start
making some contact with the California coast late Monday
(9/17) setting up a new pressure gradient off Cape Mendocino
and north winds building there to 30 kts by Tuesday.
Windswell possibly on the increase then with the fetch
itself pushing almost down into Pt Conception. A choppy
mess likely initially.
South Pacific
Overview
Tuesdays jetstream charts (9/11) for the South Pacific continued indicating
a .cgiit flow well entrenched across the South Pacific with just a slight
hint of a weak trough in.cgiace over the Southwestern Pacific running just
barely north of the Ross Ice Shelf. No winds of interest were occurring
and the flow was flat west-to-east. Over the next 72 hours no change is
forecast other than one little pocket of 120 kts winds ri.cgiing through
the southern branch under New Zealand late Tuesday (9/11) providing a little
support for surface level low pressure development while a big ridge builds
in the Southeast Pacific Wednesday pushing hard into Antarctica and shutting
down any hope there. Beyond 72 hours the trough in the southwest to hold
and moving east while the ridge in the southeast pushes towards southern
Chile. A pronounced pocket of energy to push northward into the trough
Monday of next week and continuing into Wednesday (9/19), providing support
for low pressure development.
At
the oceans surface today a new gale was trying to develop under
New Zealand (see Possible New Zealand Gale below). No other fetch
of interest was occurring. Over the next 72 hours This gale to
build and move northeast passing under strong high pressure at
1032 mbs just east of New Zealand, helping to squeeze every bit
of potential wind out of the gale. Otherwise, not fetch of interest
forecast.
New
Zealand Storm
On Wednesday AM (9/5) a 968 mb low started to build under New Zealand producing
a tiny area of 45 kt winds at 60S 160E just barely off the northern edge of
the Ross Ice Shelf. Actually the QuikSCAT satellite confirmed winds at 50 kts
solid late morning. Winds were aimed due east or 45 degrees east of the 201
degree great circle path to Hawaii and 20 degrees east of the 213 degree path
to California. Seas modeled at 29 ft at 60S 155E. In the evening winds were
supposedly on the upswing fast reaching 50-55 kts at 59S 175E again aimed almost
due east. but the QuikSCAT satellite reported winds of only 50 kts. These winds
were aimed 50 degrees east of the 195 degree path to Hawaii and 20 degrees
east of the 208 degree path to California and becoming shadowed by Tahiti.
Seas modeled at 33 ft at 60S 175E. No Jason-1 satellite passes came near the
fetch.
On
Thursday AM (9/6) storm pressure was 956 mbs with winds fading
from 50 kts at 57S 175W aimed more to the northeast or 55 degrees
east of the 188 degree path to Hawaii and 30 degrees east of
the 206 degree path to California but shadowed by Tahiti. Seas
were building at 37 ft at 57S 177W. In the evening 45 kt residual
fetch was confirmed 55S 160W aimed northeast and aimed over 70
degrees east of the 181 degree path to Hawaii and 25 degrees
east of the 200 degree path to California. Seas fading from 36
ft at 56S 163W. The Jason-1 satellite made 2 passes within 6
hours of each other over the outer edges of this systems and
confirmed seas there were at or one foot short of what was modeled
by the Wavewatch III wavemodel. So this builds some confidence
the core of the storm was on-track as well.
By
Friday AM (9/7) all fetch was gone and seas fading from 30 ft
at 54S 153W, attributable all to previous days fetch.
This
was a rather short storm of moderate strength. All fetch relative
to Hawaii was aimed well east of any great circle track there,
limiting the amount of energy pushing north. And California,
though well in the main swell vector, had Tahiti sitting right
in the middle of the swell's path, shearing some size and consistency
off of whatever swell is generated. But, after Thursday morning
the seas moved into an unshadowed position, increasing hopes
that a small amount of full energy will sneak in. In all it should
be fun sized, but nothing more (utility class, not significant
class).
Hawaii: Expect
swell arrival starting near sunset Wednesday (9/12) with period
20 secs and size tiny if even noticeable. Swell building overnight.
Period in the 18 secs range Thursday AM (9/13) with swell rideable
at sunrise and building, peaking near 5 PM at 2.8 ft @ 17 secs
(4.5 ft faces - best breaks to 6 ft). Decent size to be holding
sunrise Friday (9/14) with swell 2.8 ft @ 15 secs (4 ft faces
with best breaks to 5 ft), but settling down as the day progresses.
Period dropping to 14 secs by sunrise Saturday (9/15) with swell
2.6 ft @ 14 secs and fading (3.5 ft faces - 4.5 ft best breaks).
Swell Direction: 183-193 degrees
Southern
CA: Expect swell arrival starting Friday (9/14) at 1 PM
with period 20 secs and size tiny and very inconsistent. Probably
not even noticeable. Swell building slowly through the evening.
Swell period to 18 secs early Saturday with size coming up
to the 2 ft range (3 ft faces - 4 ft best breaks). Swell peaking
near 11 PM Saturday (9/15) at 2.6 ft @ 17 secs with rare sets
to near 3 ft (4.5-5.0 ft faces - 6 ft best breaks). Decent
energy to continue Sunday (9/16) with swell 2.6-2.8 ft @ 15-16
secs (4.0-4.5 ft faces - best breaks 5 ft). Residual energy
to continue Monday (9/17) with swell 2.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.5-4.0
ft faces) and fading. Period down to 14 secs near 11 PM and
fading out. Swell Direction: 203-209 degrees
Northern
CA: Expect swell arrival starting Friday (9/14) at 5 PM
with period 20 secs and size tiny and very inconsistent, not
even noticeable. Swell building slowly through the evening.
Swell period to 18 secs mid Saturday (9/15) with size coming
up to the 2 ft range (3 ft faces - 4 ft best breaks). Swell
peaking near 3 AM Sunday (9/16) at 2.6 ft @ 17 secs with rare
sets to near 3 ft (4.5-5.0 ft faces - 6 ft best breaks). Decent
energy to continue through the day with swell 2.6-2.8 ft @
16-17 secs (4.5 ft faces - best breaks 5.5 ft). Residual energy
to continue Monday (9/17) with swell 2.6 ft @ 15 secs (4.0-4.5
ft faces) and fading later in the day. Period down to 14 secs
first light Tuesday (9/18) and fading out. Swell Direction:
201-210 degrees
Second
Small New Zealand Gale
A small gale originated under New Zealand late Friday (9/7) in association
with a 972 mbs low there, generating 40 kts fetch aimed northeast at 60S 160E
aimed towards Hawaii and California reasonably well. It pushed east Saturday
AM increasing in size some with winds still 40-45 kts at 57S 180W. Seas were
up to 29 ft at 57S 170E. Winds built to 45-50 kts late Saturday at 56S 170W
aimed due east or 35 degrees east of the 204 degree path to California and
almost unshadowed by Tahiti and 70 degrees east of the 187 degree path to Hawaii.
35 ft seas were modeled at 57S 175W. The Jason-1 satellite made two passes
directly over this fetch late Saturday reporting seas 35-37 ft solid peak singular
readings to 40-41 ft. So this one is exactly as the WW3 model predicts. The
fetch totally collapsed Sunday AM (9/9) though residual seas from previous
day fetch peaked at 36 ft at 57S 162W. Small utility class swell likely for
both Hawaii and California 7 and 9 days out respectively.
Hawaii: Expect
swell arrival starting Saturday (9/15) near 6 AM with period
20 secs and size barely noticeable. Swell getting rideable by
Sunday (9/16) at 6 AM as period moves to 17 secs. Swell peaking
late morning at 2.7 ft @ 17 secs (4.0-4.5 ft faces - best breaks
to 5.5 ft). Swell fading from 2.7 ft @ 15 secs Monday AM (4 ft
faces) with period dropping to 14 secs by sunset. Swell Direction:
183-196 degrees
South
CA: Expect swell arrival starting Monday (9/17) before
sunrise with period 20 secs and size not even noticeable. Size
building through the day. Swell to start becoming rideable
Tuesday AM (9/18) with period dropping to 17 secs about noon.
Swell 2.3 ft @ 17 secs (3.5-4.0 ft faces - best breaks to near
5 ft) then. Swell holding in the 2.3 ft @ 15 sec range (3.5
ft faces) Wednesday (9/19). Swell dropping from 2.2 ft @ 14
secs (3 ft faces) at noon Thurs (9/20). Swell Direction: 203-211
degrees
North
CA: Expect swell arrival starting Monday (9/17) just before
sunrise with period 20 secs and size not even noticeable. Size
building through the day. Swell to start becoming rideable
Tuesday mid-morning (9/18) with period dropping to 17 secs
about 3 PM. Swell 2.3 ft @ 17 secs (3.5-4.0 ft faces - best
breaks to near 5 ft) then. Swell holding in the 2.3 ft @ 15-16
sec range (3.5-4.0 ft faces) Wednesday (9/19). Swell dropping
from 2.2 ft @ 14-15 secs (3 ft faces) Thurs (9/20) with period
down to 14 secs by 6 PM. Swell Direction: 203-211 degrees
Possible
New Zealand Gale
On Tuesday AM (9/11) a small 968 mb gale was starting to develop south of New
Zealand with winds confirmed at 40-45 kts at 60S 172E with fetch aimed northeast
or right up the 211 degree great circle path to California and 20 degrees east
of the 193 degree path to Hawaii. Seas were building. In the evening winds
are forecast to 40-45 kts at 55S 175E aimed northeast, of right up the 208
degree path to California but shadowed by Tahiti and 30 degrees east of the
189 degree path to Hawaii. Seas building to 32 ft at 56S 177W.
On
Wednesday AM (9/12) winds to hold at 40-45 kts and expand in
coverage at 50S 162W aimed just east of due north. These winds
to be aimed right up the 204 degree path to California (but still
shadowed by Tahiti) and 25 degrees east of the 182 degree path
to Hawaii. Seas peaking at 34 ft at 51S 164W. In the evening
winds to fade to 40 kts at 45S 150W aimed more to the northeast
now or 10 degrees east of the 200 degree path to California and
unshadowed by Tahiti and 35 degrees east of the 175 degree path
to Hawaii. Seas holding at 32 ft @ 49S 155W.
On
Thursday AM (9/13) the last little bit of wind energy is forecast
at 40 kts aimed more north again at 45S 142W. They are to be
aimed 10 degrees east of the 195 degree great circle path to
California but well outside the Hawaiian swell window. Seas fading
from 32 ft at 47S 148W. By evening this system to be gone with
seas falling below 30 ft.
This
gale is to not be a particularly strong one, but it is to hold
together a little longer than ones before it and of far more
interest, is to actually be tracking northeast (versus east)
pushing more swell energy towards our forecast area. Seas are
to be pretty moderate in the 32 ft range. Given it's relative
close proximity to the Hawaiian Islands and more northerly course,
solid utility class.cgius swell could radiate towards the Islands
a 6-7 days out. California still has the issue with the Tahitian
swell shadow chopping a good 25% of the swell size while in the
shadow, and the long travel distance and moderate sea heights.
But the gale is supposed to move east of the shadow providing
a little hope late in it's life. Suspect more of the same though,
with utility class swell 9 days out. Will monitor.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
North Pacific
Beyond
72 hours the remnants of Tropical Storm Danas to push inland
over northern Canada but with some lingering fetch hanging over
waters there in the Northern Gulf at 30-35 kts late Saturday
into Sunday (9/16) but aimed mostly to the east and outside the
California swell window. Limited 20 ft seas forecast at 55N 140W.
A new storm is forecast developing just west of the dateline
and barely south of the Aleutians late Sunday with pressure 968
mbs and winds 45 kts aimed towards Hawaii. This one to wrap up
more early Monday AM (9/17) with winds to 45-50 kts swinging
solidly into the storms south quadrant aimed east towards California
and the Pacific Northwest. But by nightfall the low to be lifting
into the Bering Sea with all fetch becoming obscured behind the
Aleutians, shutting down any swell generation potential. Seas
to 29 ft for a brief winds at 50N 178E Monday afternoon, good
for some possible utility swell pushing mainly east if all this
comes to pass, which is not likely. At least it's something to
watch for.
South Pacific
Beyond
72 hours the models suggest another co.cgiex gale is to form more
to the southeast of New Zealand this weekend and tracking due
east limiting the swell energy pushing north from them. The latest
charts suggest it to be much smaller than what was projected
even 6 hours earlier.
Details to follow...
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Local Interest
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table
