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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: June 29, 2006 10:08 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
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Swell Potential Rating = 1.9 - California & 1.5 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)
Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    
Issued for Week of Monday 6/26 thru Sun 7/2
Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Utility swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of Utility swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

South Pacific Remains Calm
No Hope on the Models

 

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
On Thursday (6/29) Northern CA surf was chest high and reasonably clean, but weak. South facing breaks in Santa Cruz were knee to thigh high. Central California surf was thigh high. Southern CA breaks from Santa Barbara to just north of LA were up to thigh high. The LA Area southward to Orange County was also in the thigh high range. Southward from Orange County into San Diego best breaks were waist high on the sets. The North Shore of Oahu was flat. The South Shore was up to waist high. The East Shore was waist to chest high.

Not much happening anywhere in California to day other than some windswell hitting the north end of the state, and even that was really small. A small southern hemi swell remains on track for arrival late Friday holding into the weekend providing something to at least stand up on. And some junky short period northwest windswell is expected by early next week. Today Hawaii remained near flat on all shores. A little pulse of southern hemi swell is expected for the weekend providing a something to ride. Longerterm the models are not encouraging though, with previous hints of southern hemi storm action having vaporized and literally no swell producing fetch suggested. But strong activity is forecast under Australia. Hopefully some of that will make inroads into the Pacific, but that's mostly wishful thinking at this point. See details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Thursdays jetstream charts (6/29) indicated that the jetstream flow was nearly nonexistent and providing no support for surface level gale development for the next 7 days. Detailed monitoring for the North Pacific is now on an exception basis through the summer.

At the surface on Thursday (6/29) high pressure at 1028/1032 mbs was centered in the Gulf of Alaska and north of Hawaii ridging into northern Canada. This high was generating weak to moderate trades over the Hawaiian Islands at 15-20 kts and generating small short period windswell there. No other swell producing fetch was indicated. Over the next 72 hours through Sunday (7/2) the Gulf high is to push a little stronger to the southeast generating moderate northwest winds along the North and Central CA coasts by Saturday and generating small short period windswell there. Trades to continue over the Hawaiian Islands continuing the small windswell along eastern shores there too. No change in swell generation potential suggested.

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

California Offshore Forecast
Nothing any different than what is indicated in the North Pacific Forecast suggested for the coming week. By Saturday northwest winds to be on the rise making for lumpy unorganized conditions at exposed breaks in North and Central CA through Sunday then the gradient to lift a bit to the north over Cape Mendocino generally suppressing nearshore winds Monday and beyond while still producing windswell through next Thursday. No suggestion of any eddy flow developing (southwest winds) either except in Southern CA, with the usual southwest winds early each day wrapping around Pt Conception.

The detailed 5 Day wind forecast is included with the surf & swell overview in the QuikCAST's.

 

South Pacific

Overview
Note: The data feed from NOAA to our weather models is back up and operating normally. All images have updated.
On Thursday (6/29) a fully split jetstream flow remained in-place over the entire South Pacific with the southern branch remaining weak (100 kts or less) and traversing the Ross Ice Shelf. A small trough was over the Southeastern Pacific, but no support for surface level gael development was suggested with winds being very weak in the area. The Northern branch remained dominant with winds 140-160 kts flowing zonally (ruler edge flat) from off Australia right up to Chile then diving straight south over Antarctica. No significant troughs or areas of interest were visualized capable of supporting surface level storm or gale development. Over the next 72 hours the good change is forecast. A new ridge to build under New Zealand diving over the Ross Ice Shelf and totally shutting down the storm corridor there through the weekend. Beyond 72 hours this ridge to continue and sweeping east, with the whole South Pacific falling under it's influence and minimizing the potential for storm or gale development. Most unfavorable.

At the surface on Thursday (6/29) strong high pressure at 1028 mbs was centered over the Tasman Sea pushing east over New Zealand and into the Southwestern Pacific ridging southeast to 55S and suppressing the potential for storm development in this area. To the east two weak low pressure systems were present both winds winds to 40 kts aimed northeast towards California and points south of there, but both are to be shortlived only holding long enough to produce 25-28 ft seas. No swell of interest expected. Over the next 72 hours the New Zealand high pressure system is to push east taking up a position in the mid Central Pacific totally shutting down storm production over the core of the Pacific.

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours the usual summer high pressure to continue off California getting marginally better organized and generating up to 20-25 kts winds over the Cape Mendocino by Monday into next week. This should produce more small short period windswell but nothing remarkable. The same trade wind induced windswell to continue along eastern shores of the Hawaiian Islands.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours the unfavorable ridge in the upper levels is to support high pressure at the surface centered just east of New Zealand and putting a lid on development of any swell producing storms/gales there. the pattern to take hold over the width of the South Pacific into next weekend with no swell producing storms forecast.

Details to follow...


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Local Interest

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