On Thursday (6/7) Northern CA surf was waist to chest high and warbled but clean. South facing breaks in Santa Cruz were thigh to waist high. Central California surf (Morro Bay) was in the waist to chest high range . Southern CA from Santa Barbara to just north of LA was thigh to waist high at the best breaks. The LA Area southward to Orange County was waist high and maybe a little more at the best breaks. Southward from Orange County into San Diego best breaks were up to head high or so. The North Shore of Oahu was waist to chest high. The South Shore was chest to head high. The East Shore report was not available.
North/Central California was getting some local windswell mixed with minimal windswell from the Gulf of Alaska. Rideable but not much more. Southern California was getting very minimal background southern hemi energy mixed with more sizeable local windswell being generated mostly off Pt Conception with some coming from the Southern Gulf of Alaska. Hawaii was getting the backside of southern hemi swell on the South Shore but the North Shore was flat. Southern hemi swell to be fading fast by Friday in Hawaii with nothing more behind it in the immediate future, and nothing of interest scheduled for the North Shore. The models suggest some form of low pressure activity in the Eastern Gulf of Alaska this weekend, but largely east of even the North CA swell window assuming it even forms. Local windswell the best hope for California. Longterm the South Pacific to remain dominated by high pressure in the east with only a smidgen of hope holding out under New Zealand, and this to mainly be of interest for Hawaii, and then only minimally so. A flat spell has already started for California from a southern hemi perspective with more ahead. See details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
Thursdays jetstream charts (6/7) for the North Pacific indicated a flat flow pushing from off Japan gradually rising into the central Gulf of Alaska. winds across the width of the North Pacific did not exceed 100 kts, and then only in small pockets. generally no support for gael development indicated. Over the next 72 hours no significant change forecast other than one pocket of winds building in the Gulf to near 140 kts on Saturday (6/9) but with no decent trough associated with it. Beyond 72 hours more of the same forecast, but with the whole flow pushing further north by the following weekend 6/15 and tracking directly across the Aleutians, further reducing surface level low pressure development potential in the California and Hawaiian swell windows.
At the surface today moderate high pressure at 1028 mbs was 800 nmiles west of Pt Conception CA generating a moderate 20 kt northerly flow along the entire California coast and producing limited short period windswell. This high was also generating light trades over the Hawaiian Islands and even more limited windswell along eastern shores. Weak low pressure was in the Gulf of Alaska but producing no swell generating fetch of interest. Over the next 72 hrs no significant change forecast, but with one exception. The Gulf low is to theoretically intensify to 992 mbs early Saturday (6/9) generating a small fetch of 30 kt west winds just off the Oregon/Washington border aimed well at South Oregon into the Cape Mendocino area. It to push inland within 24 hours though. Limited potential for windswell for those areas, but most of this fetch to be well east of the Central CA swell window. Otherwise high pressure to hold generating local northwest winds in the 20 kt range down the CA coast and 15 kt trades over the Hawaiian Islands.
No tropical systems are being monitored at this time.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
California Offshore Forecast
On Thursday (6/7) high pressure at 1028 mbs was northeast of Hawaii and due west of Pt Conception ridging into the California coast generating a moderate northerly flow in the 20 kt range centered near Pt Conception. Short period windswell was occurring at exposed breaks. This pattern to hold through the weekend, maybe giving up a little ground Sunday (6/10) as low pressure pushes into the Pacific northwest with 30-35 kt northwest winds, but well outside the CA swell window. High pressure to take firm control early next week (Monday 6/11) with winds building to 30-35 kts off Bodega Bay and holding through Thursday with sizeable local windswell possible. In summary: Smaller short period windswell expected through the weekend focused more towards Central CA with minimal wrap around energy pushing into Southern CA, then building next week and focused more to the north.
Thursdays jetstream charts (6/7) for the South Pacific indicating a broad trough under New Zealand with it's apex crossing the southern tip of land there and 150 kt winds flowing up to that point, then diving hard south with equal gusto diving right into Antarctic Ice well south of Tahiti and shutting down any chance for surface level gale development east of there. Only the area under New Zealand had any potential, and then limited by the fact that New Zealand was right in the middle of it all. Over the next 72 hours through Sunday (6/10) the trough under New Zealand to slip east and become less shadowed by New Zealand, but also weakening in it's west side at the same time with most energy moving into it's east side taking aim on Antarctica. Effectively the atmosphere east of 170W to either be moving due south towards Antarctica or moving over Antarctic ice east of there. No support for surface level gale development with energy aimed north towards Hawaii or California. Beyond 72 hours the New Zealand trough to almost totally fade out by Monday (6/11) with energy levels dropping in the east as well. But still that persistent southward flow is expected with a ridge continuing through the end of the work week. No support for surface level gale development.
At the surface today high pressure at 1036 mbs was in firm control of the upper reaches of the Southeast Pacific pushing south to just short of Antarctica and driving the storm track the same way. Low pressure at 940 mbs was positioned well southeast of New Zealand over the Ross Ice Shelf and generating only a modest fetch of 35 kt southwest winds pushing up into the California and Hawaiian swell windows just east of New Zealand, then quickly turning and diving south as it moved into the sphere of influence of high pressure to the east. 29 ft seas were indicated at 50S 180W (down from 30-32 ft confirmed by the Jason-1 satellite just 12 hours earlier), mostly the result of previous fetch in the area targeting the Tasman Sea and western New Zealand. Maybe some background swell from this area to be pushing northeast towards Hawaii, but that's all. Over the next 72 hours new low pressure to develop in this area southeast of New Zealand with winds to 55 kts, but is to rapidly dive south under the influence of the jetstream aloft and an inpenetrable wall of high pressure to the east at 1040 mbs. No support for generation of northward traveling swell.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours another weak pulse of low pressure to track through the northern Gulf of Alaska early next week (Monday 6/11) with winds theoretically up to 35 kts aimed towards the Pacific Northwest. Odds low of this occurring, and even if it does, only minimal windswell expected to result. High pressure to be building right behind it Tuesday (6/12) and it's to interact with building low pressure inland over Nevada setting up a solid fetch of 30 kt north winds over Cape Mendocino CA Tues-Thurs (6/14) with improved chances for local windswell off California. The high is to be too far east to have any real impact on Hawaii other than maintaining normal trades. No other swell producing fetch of interest forecast.
Beyond 72 hours high pressure at 1040 mbs to become even more entrenched over the Southeast Pacific joined by more high pressure at 1028 mbs just southeast of New Zealand, continuing the strong southward push of all weather system tracking from under Australia. The net result is they are to all get sheared and track towards Antarctica. One exception is a supposed little low forecast to track up the New Zealand east coast starting Tues (6/12) pushing a small area of 40-45 kt winds northeast and generating a tiny area of 25-29 ft seas towards Hawaii through the end of the workweek. But a similar situation was forecast recently and did not develop, so odds are low it will occur in this even more inhospitable environment forecast over the coming week.
Details to follow...
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Jason-1 Satellite Data On-line and Improved!: Our Jason-1 satellite data was upgraded yet again Wednesday PM (6/6) and is now operating better than ever. We've added a feature that averages the data every 15 measurements on the local views and every 50 measurements on the global view (1 measurement every 3 nautical miles) and overlays the results onto the wave model chart. Both the single highest measurement on the chart and the highest 15 measurement average are posted at the bottom of each chart. This seems to work real well and compensates for the very spiky nature of the raw data coming off the satellite. So we now have an effective way to verify the accuracy (or lack of) the wave model output. See the data here: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_alt.html
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High Noon and Low Tide: Eric Nelson has remastered this epic Mavericks documentary covering a week of giant surf leading up to that fateful day of 12/23/94 when we lost Mark Foo. See all the footage with archived and recent interviews of all the best riders including Grant Washburn, Doc Renneker, Evan Slater, Peter Mel and more. This is a must-have piece for any serious Maverick collection. Available at local surfshops. Will be coming to an on-line store shortly.
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table