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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: March 4, 2008 6:36 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
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Swell Potential Rating = 3.0 - California & 3.9 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)
Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    
Issued for Week of Monday 3/3 thru Sun 3/9
Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Gale Pattern Expected for the Gulf
Another Dateline Gale Forecast Longterm

 

New Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead)
Advanced: Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Intermediate: Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft)
Impulse/Windswell: Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
On Tuesday (3/4) Northern CA surf was chest to head high and reasonably clean. South facing breaks in Santa Cruz were waist high and weak. Central California surf (Morro Bay) was chest to maybe head high and windy by mid-day. Surf in Southern CA from Santa Barbara to just north of LA was waist high and clean. The LA Area southward to Orange County was waist to chest high and glassy. South Orange County down into San Diego best breaks were waist to chest high and clean. The North Shore of Oahu was 1-3 ft overhead and glassy. The South Shore was flat and clean. The East Shore was thigh high at top spots.

North/Central California was the smallest it's been in a while, with no real swell of interest occurring other than some background dateline energy mixed up with an occasional southern hemi pulse. Southern California was getting a mix of better southern hemi swell originating from the Southeast Pacific mixed with tiny northwest dateline swell. Hawaii's North Shore was the standout again, with a new batch of moderate dateline swell pushing in and making for some fun surf at select breaks. The East Shore was essentially flat. The South Shore was flat.

Hawaii to continue in the spotlight getting a steady diet of swell from the dateline making for solid fun sized plus surf into the early weekend, then fading. California to muddle along with something that almost resembles surf trying to push into the north end of the state later Wednesday and holding into the weekend. The real issue is what will come after that. The models have been inconsistent, depicting a series of gales in the Gulf of Alaska late week into the weekend offering good energy for California on run, then al but gone the next, only to reappear two runs later. Best guess at this time is maybe a gale aimed at California on Thursday with a a second right behind on the dateline aimed at Hawaii, but both fading a day or tow later, and nothing else to follow. Looks like Spring has sprung. See details below...

 

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Tuesdays jetstream charts (3/4) for the North Pacific were starting to look decent with a consolidated flow of up to 180 kts winds pushing off Japan arching over the dateline then falling into a weak trough north of Hawaii nd offering some support for gale development there. To the east the jet split with the northern branch ridging northeast through the Gulf of Alaska and on into Canada while the southern branch tracked meandered over Hawaii then east over Southern Baja. Over the next 72 hours a solid flow to continue off Japan reaching over the dateline and falling into a faint trough pushing from north of Hawaii into Canada in sync with the building flow pushing into Northern CA late Friday (4/7). Winds 150 kts over the bulk of it's width with more energy building over Japan late. Beyond 72 hours the consolidated flow is to continue flow west to east with a few small undulations rippling from the dateline towards the mainland offering a smidgeon of support for surface level development through the weekend, though nothing outstanding. After that wind energy to drop off and a more fragmented flow is suggested, though not split, at least by Tuesday (3/11). But all the signs of a possible split pattern are to start materializing.

At the surface today a broad but weak and diffuse low pressure system was on the dateline trying to reach in to the Gulf of Alaska with pressure down to 980 mbs and generating some 30 kt fetch and 20 ft seas at 37N 175W well south of the dateline aimed towards Hawaii. This was actually the tail end of a pulse of fetch that has produced up to 29-30 ft seas at 40N 178W on Sunday (3/2) decaying into Monday. Swell from this system started hitting Hawaii Monday and is already on the way down with small energy forecast pushing into North CA on Wednesday (3/5) (see QuikCASTs for details). Otherwise high pressure at 1032 mbs was just off the Pacific Northwest offering some minimal storm protection there ridging southwest over Hawaii, but not strong enough to even kick up the trades. No other systems of interest indicated.

Over the next 72 hours the remnants of the above system to try and reorganize again, being fed by light moisture streaming over the dateline from Japan and coalescing into something by late Wednesday (3/5). Pressure to be 984 mbs with 35 kt southwest winds building on the leading edge of the low 900 nmiles north of Hawaii and targeting the Pacific Northwest. By Thursday AM (3/6) pressure to be down to 976 mbs with 45 kt northwest winds building at 42N 152W aimed towards NCal down the 292 degree path and 1500 nmiles out. 23 ft seas building at 42N 157W. No fetch to be aimed at Hawaii. In the evening the low to be lifting north with 45 kts winds at 45N 152W still aimed well towards Ncal up the 297 degree path (302 Scal). 30 ft seas forecast at 43N 151W. By Friday AM (3/7) the gale to still be holding together with pressure to 968 mbs positioned well up in the Gulf with 45 kt winds at 49N 152W aimed due east or 20 degrees east of the 308 degree path to NCal and essentially out of the Scal swell window. 30 ft seas forecast at 48M 152W pushing a bit north of the NCal swell window. The gale is to be disintegrated by nightfall with residual seas pushing well north of any path toward or forecast area, focused on British Columbia and point north.

If all this occurs as forecast some form of swell could possibly be pushing towards California for later in the weekend. Will believe it when it happens.

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

California Nearshore Forecast
As of Tuesday (3/4) another bit of weak high pressure at 1032 mbs was ridging into the Pacific Northwest setting up a light northerly flow Tuesday from Cape Mendocino down into Pt Conception, but mostly over outer waters. This fetch to continue an perhaps even build a bit Wednesday with 20-25 kts north winds over outer waters, though again not pushing too close to shore. That to be gone by Thursday (3/6) as the high moves inland leaving a light pressure pattern and wind flow in-place. New high pressure at 1024 mbs is to set up off Southern CA Friday (2/7) offering some protection from a building gale pattern in the Gulf and holding into Saturday, when the bulk of the gale activity is to try to make a move on the Monterey Bay area, but be fended regarding strong winds. But rain is definitely forecast starting Saturday night into Sunday and Monday. Light south winds forecast Sunday turning northwest and light Monday while more low pressure builds in the Gulf and new high pressure tries to offer some protection, possibly providing a short 12 hour blast of north wind on Tuesday, but then quickly backing off.

 

Tropics
No tropical systems of interest were being tracked.

 

South Pacific

Overview
An interesting storm built in the mid-South Pacific Monday AM (3/3) with pressure 952 mbs generating a decent fetch of 50-55 kt south to southwest winds confirmed by the QuikSCAT satellite near 55S 155W aimed 20 degrees east of the 198 degree path to CA and tracking northeast through late Tuesday with winds slowly fading to 35 kts at 50S 135W. This fetch generated 37 ft seas Mon PM at 51S 145W holding at 37 ft Tuesday AM at 49S 140W then fading from 32 ft at 45N 136W in the evening. The Jason-1 satellite made a pass directly over the fetch Tuesday AM and confirmed seas at 37 ft, exactly on-track with the wave models projections. This is good. Some form a decent southern hemi swell is in the water pushing towards California and Central America.

Expect swell arrival in California starting Tuesday (3/11) with period 20 secs and size probably not even noticeable building into Wednesday and peaking Thursday AM (2/13) as period drops to 17 secs. Swell Direction: 191-198 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hrs another weak gale is to form well off the North CA coast Saturday (3/8) dissolving 24 hours later while pushing into British Columbia possibly generating a limited fetch of 25 ft seas 1000 nmiles off Cape Mendocino late, offering swell potential into Monday (3/10).

Also another gale is to be pushing off Japan tracking steadily east Saturday (3/8) generating a tiny area of 45 kt winds aimed a bit south of Hawaii. It's to get much better organized on Sunday (3/9) generating 45-50 kts winds near 35N 175E-175W aimed at Hawaii down the 305-310 degree great circle tracks with seas pushing near 32 ft. The gale to slowly fade while tracking north of Hawaii Monday (3/10) with seas fading from 30 ft at 33N 170W to 26 ft at 34N 164W and then moving northeast out of the Hawaiian swell window and focusing more towards California as winds rebuild towards the 40-45 kt range in the late evening. Possible larger swell for Hawaii late Tuesday (3/11) with lot's of luck. Maybe some potential for CA later in the week with even more luck.

 

South Pacific

No swell producing systems of interst are forecast.

Details to follow...

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

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Local Interest

Mavericks Contest 2008: View all the action from the 2008 Maverick Surf Contest from Powelines Productions here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9o5lj9CUpCc

Half Moon Bay Surfers - Attention: There¹s a movement afoot to dredge sand out of the Pillar Point (i.e. Half Moon Bay) Harbor and dump it just south of the jetty, so it will replenish all sand that¹s disappeared between the harbor and HMB. The guy who¹s spearheading the project, Brian Overfelt, has already received a positive preliminary reading from the local harbor commissioners. He¹s making a formal presentation to the Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary¹s advisory council this coming Friday (2/15) at Our Lady of Pillar church in Half Moon Bay. (It's on Kelly Ave, just east of the Coast Highway, across the street from Cunha Intermediate School.) starting at 9 AM. More details here: http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/forecast/forecast/hmb_dredge.html

Need Chiropractic Help? Visit our friends at Darrow Chiropractic. Not only will Dr. Darrow fix you up, he might give you some big wave surfing tips too! See more here: http://www.darrowchiropractic.com/

Grib File Switchover: The old grib1 format wave model datafiles that have been the mainstay of the National Weather service for years now are scheduled to be retired on 1/26. We switched over to the new grib2 files starting with the 00z run of Thurs 1/17. All appears to be running fine. There is no functional change to the content of the models, just that files we receive are now smaller due to improved compression of grib2. But this sets us up to start processing new higher resolution files and building new products in the months ahead. So in all it's a good maintenance level change.

Sharkwater: There's a new feature film called Sharkwater that is hitting theaters November 2nd. Sharkwater is an award winning documentary (22 international film awards including the UN and Cannes) that broke box office records in Canada, opening to bigger numbers than any documentary in history save Fahrenheit 911 and Supersize Me. It is a conservation film that demonstrates that the biggest influence on the air we breathe, and global warming is life in the oceans except life in the oceans is being wiped out. Shark populations have dropped 90% in the last 30 years alone, and the oceans continue to be destroyed because nobody knows that it's happening Learn more here: http://www.sharkwater.com

Bluewater Gold Rush: The first and only chronicle of the California sea urchin dive fishery. Diving, surfing, comedy, and tragedy on and under the waves of California. "A quintessential tale of California ... dramas of adventure and loss on and under the sea" We read it and it's a great story about the bloom of the urchin diving boom in the 70's and the few lucky souls who were right there when it took off. An easy read that's hard to put down. The trials and success of a 'real' California dream right down to it's core. Check it out here: http://www.bluewatergoldrush.com

Submit your story to 'Surfings Greatest Misadventures: Vol. 2': DEADLINE: January 15th, 2008 Casagrande Press is seeking stories, articles, and essays on the general subject of surfing misadventure for publication in Surfings Greatest Misadventures: Volume 2. We are looking for nonfiction, first-person surf stories of bad judgment calls, pranks, comical/ironic episodes, disaster, attacking predators, misfortune, injury, loss of wit or limb, panic, critical conditions, contest meltdowns, everyday fears, surf trips gone wrong or the out-of-water episodes that surround surfing. We are looking for well-written stories that tell a good tale, reflect a culture, and develop the depth of the characters involved. We also like stories that have a tight narrative tension and a payoff at the end. Open to writers and surfers of any level. There is no fee to submit a story. We will consider previously published stories. To see more info on the first book visit www.thesurfbook.com. Submit online at www.casagrandepress.com

Waveriders Gallery: Check out this collection of high quality artwork all related to waves and the ocean. Surf Paintings, Photography, Posters, Books, Boards and exhibits all produced by a variety of top artists provide a beautiful selection of pieces to chose from. Take and look and see some of the stunning work available from these artists. http://www.waveridersgallery.net/

Stormsurf Google Gadget - Want Stormsurf content on your Google Homepage? It's simple and free. If you have Google set as your default Internet Explorer Homepage, just click the link below and a buoy forecast will be added to your Google homepage. Defaults to Half Moon Bay CA. If you want to select a different location, just click on the word 'edit', and a list of alternate available locations appears. Pick the one of your choice. Content updates 4 times daily. A great way to see what waves are coming your way!
http://www.google.com/ig/add?moduleurl=http://www.stormsurf.com/gadget/stormsurf .xml

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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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