Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 4.1 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 2.3 ft @ 13.1 secs from 192 degrees. Water temp 77.5 (Barbers Pt), 77.2 (Pearl Harbor 233), 78.3 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 5.1 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 3.5 ft @ 8.1 secs from 66 degrees. Water temp 76.5 degs
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 3.2 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 2.5 ft @ 8.3 secs from 58 degrees. Water temp 76.3 degs
Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.6 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 1.7 ft @ 16.9 secs from 196 degrees. Wind southwest at 2-4 kts. Water temperature 61.3 degs, 54.9 (Harvest 071), 60.4 (Topanga 103), 57.2 (Long Beach 215), 64.2 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 64.2 (Del Mar 153), 62.8 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 7.5 ft @ 11.2 secs from 312 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 3.2 ft @ 10.0 secs from 281 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.0 ft @ 18.3 secs from 196 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 2.5 ft @ 17.3 secs from 207 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.6 ft @ 18.0 secs from 189 degrees. Water temperature was 60.8 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 11.8 ft @ 9.9 secs with windswell 9.2 ft @ 9.8 secs from 322 degrees and southern hemi swell 3.0 ft @ 17.5 secs from 193 degrees. Wind northwest at 16-21 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and NW 10-11 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801583) and south at 4 kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 49.6 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 54.7 (San Francisco 46026), 57.6 (SF Bar 142), 51.8 (1801583) and 54.9 (Monterey Bay 46092).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (5/21) in North and Central CA waves were chest to maybe head high and very warbled and mushed and chopped from local northwest winds with modest fog and gloom in control. Protected breaks were up to shoulder high and somewhat lined up and mushed with modest south wind adding some texture. At Santa Cruz surf was head high or maybe just slightly bigger on the peaks of the sets and clean but a bit wonky from intermixed wind swell but clean early. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist high or a little more on the sets and somewhat lined up and clean but soft with some warble in the water. Central Orange County had waves at head high on the sets high and clean and lined up with decent form with no wind. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had waves at 1-2 ft overhead on the peaks of set waves and clean and lined up with good form but with some warble in the water. North San Diego had sets at head high and real lined up if not closed out and fairly powerful and reasonably clean with some intermixed warble. Oahu's North Shore had waves at maybe waist high at top breaks and clean but not really rideable. The South Shore had sets at head high on the sets and lined up with good form and fairly clean with just some light tradewind texture on it. The East Shore was getting east windswell at waist high and chopped from moderate easterly trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (5/21) California was seeing the peak of the final of 3 swells with remnants of the second swell fading underneath. The third swell developed in the Central South Pacific lifting northeast Sun-Tues (5/14) with 36 ft seas aimed northeast. And beyond another gale is forecast developing under New Zealand lifting well north Fri-Mon (5/27) producing up to 38 ft seas aimed northeast. The swell pattern continues.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (5/21) no swell was in the water.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Wed AM (5/22) the gradient falls over all of North and Central CA with northwest 20-30 kts for North CA early and northwest winds 15-20 kts for Central CA and up to 25 kts well off the coast. No change in the afternoon but with only 20 kt northwest winds off Central CA. Windswell production underway.
Thurs AM (5/23) the gradient holds with northwest winds 25-30 kts for North CA and 20-25 kts for all of Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 20-25 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA. Windswell production continues.
Fri AM (5/24) the gradient fades slightly with northwest winds 15-25 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15 kts for North and Central CA. Windswell production fading.
Sat AM (5/25) northwest winds to be 15+ kts for North CA early and 10+ kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15-20 kts for North Ca early and 15 kts for Central CA but shallow offering no windswell production potential.
Sun AM (5/26) northwest winds rebuild some at 15-20 kts for all of North and Central CA early. No change in the afternoon. Only minimal south period windchop expected to result.
Mon AM (5/27) 15 kt northwest winds hold over all of North and Central CA early. No change in the afternoon.
Tues AM (5/28) northwest winds hold at 15 kts for North Ca early but fade to 10+ kts for Central CA. In the afternoon winds finally fall to 10 kts.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 0, 0, 0 and 0 inches.

Freeze Level for the intersection of Tioga Pass Road and the John Muir Trail (Toulome Meadows): Freeze Level 10,5000 ft today holding through Thurs (5/23) then falling early on Sat (5/15) to near 9.000 ft. Temps quickly rebuilding with the freeze level at 12,500 ft on Sun AM (5/26) holding through late Tues (5/28) then falling to 8,500 ft early Thurs (5/30) quickly rebounding to 13,000 ft beyond.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday AM (5/21) the influential southern branch of the jet was fully split running zonal (flat west to east) on the 63S latitude line across the South Pacific with one small trough trying to develop well southeast of New Zealand being fed by 150 kts winds perhaps offering some support for gale formation. Otherwise no troughs were indicated offering no support for gale formation. Over the next 72 hours the trough is to build some over the Central South Pacific later Tues into Wed (5/22) offering better support for gale development before fading on Thurs (5/23) over the Southeast Pacific. Beyond 72 hours starting Fri (5/24) another trough is to develop under New Zealand being fed by 140 kt winds aimed well north then easing east and just off the coast of New Zealand Sat-Sun (5/24) offering more support for gale formation. A weak pattern to follow.

Surface Analysis
On Tuesday AM (5/21) swell from the second of three gales that developed south of New Zealand was fading in California (see Second New Zealand Gale below). Any swell from yet a broader gale that developed directly behind that under New Zealand was near peaking in California while fading in Hawaii (see Central South Pacific Gale below).

On Sat PM (5/18) a gale developed south of Tasmania with 40 kt west winds and seas 34 ft at 62.25S 134.25E aimed east barely north of Antarctic Ice. On Sun AM (5/19) the gale was pushing east-northeast with 35-40 kt west winds and seas 29 ft at 61S 145E aimed east. In the evening fetch was pushing east with 40 kt west winds just off the north edge of the Ross Ice Shelf with seas 26 ft at 60.75S 168.25E aimed east. Fetch was fading Mon AM (5/20) with west winds 35 kts and seas fading from 27 ft at 61.5S 178.75E aimed east. Very low odds of any meaningful swell resulting.

Second New Zealand Gale
A stronger gale developed south of Tasmania Wed AM (5/8) producing a broad area of west-southwest winds at 40-45 kts with seas 37 ft at 61.25S 134.75E aimed east. In the evening the gale was tracking east with 40 kt southwest winds over a solid area and seas 37 ft at 61S 150.5E aimed east. On Thurs AM (5/9) southwest fetch was aimed more northeasterly at 40-45 kts positioned south of New Zealand with seas 37 ft at 57.75S 164.25E aimed east-northeast. Fetch faded in the evening but turning hard southwesterly at 35 kts with seas 33 ft at 56.5S 173.5E aimed northeast. Fetch was fading Fri AM (5/10) at 30-35 kts with seas 27-28 ft at 51.25S 176.25W aimed northeast. Seas and fetch continued into Sat (5/11) at 25 ft aimed northeast.

Southern CA: Swell fading Tues (5/21) from 2.1 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft) while starting to become overrun by new swell from the Central South Pacific. Swell Direction: 212-213 degrees and unshadowed by Tahiti

North CA: Swell fading Tues (5/21) from 2.0 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft) while starting to become overrun by new swell from the Central South Pacific. Swell Direction: 211-212 degrees and unshadowed by Tahiti

Tiny South Central Pacific Gale
And remnant energy from the previous New Zealand gale (see second New Zealand Gale above) started reorganizing Sat PM (5/11) over the South Central Pacific producing south winds at 40-45 kts over a small area aimed north with seas 32 ft at 55.25S 161.5W aimed north. On Sun AM (5/12) southwest winds were lifting northeast at 35 kts over a tiny area with seas fading from 33 ft at 52.25S 153W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 30 kts from the southwest and becoming absorbed by a new fetch southwest of it. Whatever swell is generated is to be buried in swell from systems before and after it.

Central Southeast Pacific Gale
And starting Sat PM (5/11) a new gale started building south of New Zealand producing a broad fetch of 40-45 kt southwest winds and seas building from 26 ft at 59.5S 169E aimed northeast. On Sun AM (5/12) southwest winds built at 50-55 kts over a solid area with seas building to 35 ft at 57.25S 175W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds were 45-50 kts solid lifting northeast with seas 36 ft at 54.5S 163W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (5/13) southwest winds were fading from 40-45 kts with seas 36 ft at 52.25S 154W over the Central South Pacific aimed well northeast. In the evening southwest winds were fading from 35-40 kts but still well organized with seas 32 ft at 49.25S 146.25W aimed east-northeast. Fetch fading Tues AM (5/14) with seas fading from 28 ft at 51.25S 133.25W.

Oahu: Swell fading Tues (5/21) from 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Residuals on Wed (5/22) fading from 1.4 ft @ 13 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 187 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (5/21) building to 1.6 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell builds on Wed (5/22) to 2.3 ft @ 16-17 secs early (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (5/23) from 2.1 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft). Residuals on Fri (5/24) fading from 1.7 ft @ 14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Dribbles on Sat (5/25) fading from 1.4 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 198-206 degrees and shadowed by Tahiti.

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (5/21) building to 1.5 ft @ 18 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell builds on Wed (5/22) to 2.1 ft @ 16-17 secs early (3.5 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (5/23) from 2.2 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft). Residuals on Fri (5/24) fading from 1.8 ft @ 14 secs (2.5 ft). Dribbles on Sat (5/25) fading from 1.5 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 197-205 degrees and shadowed by Tahiti.

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast. Winter is over.

Beyond 72 a gale is to develop under New Zealand on Fri AM (5/24) producing 35-40 kt southwest winds and seas 26 ft at 59S 160E aimed northeast. In the evening fetch is to be building while lifting north at 35-45 kts with seas 28 ft at 53.25S 165.75E. On Sat AM (5/25) a solid fetch of 50 kt south winds are to develop just southeast of New Zealand with seas building from 32 ft at 57.25S 172.75E aimed northeast. In the evening south winds to be 45-50 kts lifting north with seas 38 ft at 52.5S 174.75E aimed north-northeast. On Sun AM (5/26) southwest winds are to be lifting northeast at 40-45 kts with seas 37 ft at 48S 177.5W aimed northeast. Fetch is to be holding off New Zealand in the evening with southerly winds at 35-40 kts and seas 31 ft at 45S 170W aimed northeast. Fetch is to be fading on Mon AM (5/27) from 30-35 kts from the southwest with seas fading from 28 ft at 43S 168W aimed northeast. Fetch fading from there. Something to monitor.

La Nina Building - NINO3.4 Temps Falling to Neutral
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Fading with Cool Water Starting to Erupt
9 Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But now cold water has traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific and is starting to erupt off the coast of Ecuador with the remaining warm pool created by El Nino starting to dissipate in the East Equatorial Pacific. Regardless, the atmosphere is still in El Nino mode and will continue from previous momentum while slowly fading through Fall of 2024.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 6 Active MJO's produced 6 Kelvin Waves over early to mid 2023 with Kelvin Wave #7 in August building over the West Pacific and the 4th, 5th and 6th backed up off Ecuador now (10/20/23). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias moving over California now filling the Pacific. We are now under an El Nino status. We are moving into a period of enhanced storm production (starting late Sept 2023) and beyond, getting intense come late Fall and early Winter. This should result in an above normal level of swells, with swells being longer than normal duration from here forward as El Nino gets a stronger footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is a well above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration (i.e 15 significant class swells perhaps). Last year there were 0 and year before 5 or less.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (5/20) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were modest east over the East equatorial Pacific and light east over the Central Pacific and light east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (5/21) Today moderate east anomalies were filling the entirety of the equatorial Pacific. East anomalies to build to strong status in the Central KWGA 5/22-5/25 then starting to slow fade and near neutral by the end of the model run on 6/6.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (5/20) A weak Inactive MJO ( dry air) was over the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates it is to fade on day 5 of the model run as the Active MJO (wet air) starts trying to push into the West Pacific filling it on day 10 of the model run and holding filling the KWGA 15 days out. The dynamic model depicts the same thing but not moving quite as aggressive.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (5/21) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was very modest over the East Indian Ocean today. The statistical model indicates it is move to the West Pacific 2 weeks out and anywhere from very weak to moderately strong. The dynamic model indicates it moving only to the Central Maritime Continent and weak.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (5/21) A weak Active MJO pattern (wet air) was over the West KWGA today though the bulk of the Active Phase was over the Indian Ocean. The Pacific component is to hold position and fading on 6/10 while the Indian Ocean component tracks east and fades as it joins the Pacific part. on 6/15 the Inactive MJO (dry air) starting to build in the far west KWGA filling the Pacific at the end of the model run 40 days out (6/30).
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (5/20) Today a moderate Equatorial Rossby Wave was fading over the KWGA driving moderate west anomalies. The Rossby Wave and west anomalies are to retrograde west and gone by 5/22 as the Inactive Phase of the MJO and east anomalies take over a near strong status into 5/29. After that a neutral MJO pattern is indicated but with moderate east anomalies holding through the end of the model run on 6/17 with perhaps some weak west anomalies creeping east into the KWGA 6/12 and beyond.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (5/21) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
A neutral MJO was over the KWGA today but with east anomalies building filling most of the KWGA. A period of weak west anomalies are to develop in the KWGA starting 6/1 even as the Inactive Phase developing 5/26-6/4. Then a weak Active Phase is to develop 6/6-6/25 with weak west anomalies holding. An Inactive MJO is to follow starting 6/24-7/10 but with weak west anomalies holding over the KWGA. After that a neutral MJO is forecast with weak west anomalies over the West KWGA and retrograding slowly west while east anomalies are to be building east of the dateline and eventually west of the dateline over the coming 3 months. The low pass filter indicates the final contour from a previous broad low pressure bias fading over the KWGA dissipated on 5/19 with El Nino gone then. The low pressure bias retrograded back to the Indian Ocean 4/28 and is to be building there through the end of the model run with 2 contours indicated. The high pressure bias started to show on the dateline 5/4 and is to be building quickly east on California by 6/28 and filling the whole of the Pacific beyond. La Nina is here and building.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (5/21) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm was retrograding to the west reaching east to 178E. The 29 degree isotherm was holding at 166W. The 28 deg isotherm line was gone east of 145W and steadily sliding west. The 24 degree isotherm extended the whole way across the Pacific and was shallow starting at 130W and points east of there at 25m deep. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were at +1 deg in one small pocket over the far East equatorial Pacific compressed to the surface (25-30m deep) with +1-2 degree anomalies building in depth to 150m limited to points west of 150W. El Nino is gone subsurface. A large pool of cold anomalies at up to -5 degs were 120m deep between 110W-180W reaching east and weaker to a point along Ecuador basically filling the entire Equatorial Pacific. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 5/13 indicates cold water was in control at the surface from Ecuador west to 130W and at depth west to 160E. The last remnant warm surface water from El Nino was getting pushed west by trades starting at 145W and points west of there. Cold water was filling the entire equatorial Pacific thermocline below it. La Nina is developing. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (5/13) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 to -10 cms east of 170W with two small pockets at -15 cms at 115W and 90W. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (5/13) cold water has been filling the Equatorial Pacific since early March with temps currently -0.5 to -2.0 degs from Ecuador to 160W. El Nino is gone from the subsurface perspective and now clearly turning to La Nina.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (5/20) The latest images depict a modest warm pool was north and south of the equator from Ecuador west to the dateline but with a well developed cool pool imbedded in the middle of it starting along the coasts of Peru and Ecuador turning west on the equator continuing out to 160W and building in coverage. There is still leftover El Nino warm water present at the surface but with a developing cold La Nina signal starting to dominate in the heart of the fading warm pool. We are in a transitional phase.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (5/20): Water temps were falling some on the equator from Peru up to Ecuador then turning west over the Galapagos out to 120W. Lightly warming temps were west of 120W. A neutral pattern was present everywhere else near the equator.
Hi-res Overview: (5/20) Warmer than normal waters are filling the Equatorial Pacific from just west of the Galapagos to the dateline with a building cool stream embedded through it extending west from the coast of Ecuador to 160W over the equator. The classic El Nino tongue of warm water is still present but being weakened by a building La Nina stream.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (5/21) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were falling some at -0.855. They were down at -1.014 (5/16) after rising to +0.184 degrees 5/2 after falling to -0.843 (4/21) and -0.565 on 4/1 and have been below 0 since 3/19.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (5/21) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were falling at -0.127 falling below the zero mark on 5/20. They had been steady at +0.095 after rising to +0.831 degs on 4/21 after falling to +0.5 degs on 4/15 and then falling from +1.120 (4/3) degrees. Previously temps have been in the +1.2 deg range since 3/11. Temps were at +1.2 degs or higher since 1/13. Temps had been in the +1.5 range 11/19-1/12.
Weekly OISST are steadily falling at +0.2 degs (week of 5/15), +0.3 (5/8), +0.5 (5/1), +0.8 (4/24), +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data is falling from +1.72 Oct, +2.02 Nov, +2.02 Dec and +1.82 Jan and +1.52 Feb, +1.15 March and +0.80 April.
3 Month ONI (centered) 3 month period is +1.15 FMA, +1.49 JFM, 1.79 for DJF and +1.95 ft for NDJ (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.92 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan and +1.65 in Feb then down to +1.0 degs mid-April.
Forecast (5/21) - Temps to fall to 0.0 late-May and -0.4 mid-July and -1.55 degs in Nov/Dec 2024. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same thing but with temps falling to only -1.25 degs. According to this version of the model we are past the peak of a strong El Nino.
IRI Consensus Plume: The May 20, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +0.117 degs today and its the 13th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to fall steadily from here forward down to -0.338 in July (3 month running mean) then fading from there down to -0.741 in Oct and holding there. This is an upgrade with temps previously forecast down to -0.944 (per the April model run). The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.893 (-1.075 previous run) in Sept and the Statistic down to -0.631 in Oct (-0.927 previous run).
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (5/21) the Daily Index was rising at +2.24 today. The daily SOI turned mostly positive on 2/20/24 after a 28 day negative peaking down at -46.54 on 2/9. It was positive and up to +31.61 on 1/6/24 and had been rising the previous 10 days. It had been effectively neutral 11/20/23 through 1/10/24. This was not consistent with El Nino. Previously it was negative for 29 days (7/14-8/11) with a peak down to -37.30 on 7/25 and negative previously to 7/12 with peaks down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12.
The 30 day average was rising steady at -0.51. Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was rising some at -1.22. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
El Nino is collapsing

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/19 and hard negative in 10/21-10/23 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/23-2/24 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24, then falling to -1.57 in March and -2.09 in April). Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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