Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 4.8 ft @ 10.5 secs with swell 2.9 ft @ 9.3 secs from 257 degrees. Water temp 78.4 (Barbers Pt), 77.9 (Pearl Harbor 233), 79.0 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 5.1 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 3.2 ft @ 13.6 secs from 346 degrees. Water temp 78.1 degs.
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 6.9 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 5.3 ft @ 13.1 secs from 307 degrees. Water temp 78.4 degs
Buoy 46025 (Santa Monica Basin): Seas were 2.5 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 1.6 ft @ 9.2 secs from 266 degrees. Wind east 8-10 kts. Water temperature 63.3 degs, 61.9 (Harvest 071), 63.1 (Topanga 103), 63.5 (Long Beach 215), 63.9 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 63.1 (Del Mar 153), 63.3 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 4.3 ft @ 6.1 secs from 307 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 1.6 ft @ 10.2 secs from 271 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.0 ft @ 11.8 secs from 245 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 0.7 ft @ 15.8 secs from 210 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 0.9 ft @ 13.0 secs from 229 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.1 ft @ 12.3 secs from 228 degrees. Water temperature 64.8 degrees.
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): (using 46026/142 - 029 is Down) Seas were 4.6 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 3.6 ft @ 10.0 secs from 303 degrees. Wind east 10-12 kts (Bodega Bay 46013), E 12-16 kts San Francisco (46026), NA (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and NNE 6 (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp 55.9 (Bodega Bay 46013), NA (Pt Reyes 029), 55.6 (San Francisco 46026), 54.3 (SF Bar 142), NA (Half Moon Bay 1801589), 59.4 (Monterey Bay 46092), 59.4 (156 Monterey Outer Canyon).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (12/16) in North and Central CA surf was waist to chest high on the sets and lined up and clean with decent form but not very powerful. Protected breaks were waist high and lined up with decent form and clean early. At Santa Cruz surf was up to waist high on the sets and lined up with good form and clean but pretty soft and weak. In Ventura County waves were knee to thigh high on the sets and lined up with good form and real clean early. Central Orange County had sets at waist high or so and lined up with decent form and clean early. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets to thigh high and reasonably lined up with good form and clean but inconsistent. North San Diego had sets at thigh to waist high and lined up with decent form and clean. Oahu's North Shore had sets at head high to 1 ft overhead and lined up with good form and real clean early. The South Shore had waves at chest high but conditions were a mess with south winds and warble and not really rideable. The East Shore was getting some sort of wrap in southerly windswell at chest high and clean from south wind.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (12/16) Hawaii was getting continued but fading swell from a small gale that lifted north from just west of the dateline Wed-Thurs (12/11) producing 33-37 ft seas aimed east. California had no meaningful swell of interest. A small system developed off the Kurils on Mon (12/15) producing 26 ft seas aimed briefly east but not making any serious east headway. A weak system developed in the Northern Gulf Mon (12/15) producing 18-20 ft seas aimed briefly southeast at the Pacific Northwest and Northern CA. Swell is pushing towards the coast. And a weak cutoff low pressure system was tracking east from a point northwest of the Hawaiian Islands Mon-Wed (12/17) perhaps producing 20 ft seas aimed at the Islands. A broad ill formed low is to develop over the South Dateline region Sun-Tues (12/23) perhaps producing 23 ft seas aimed somewhat at Hawaii. And a weak low pressure system is forecast for the Gulf on Mon-Tues (12/23) producing 19 ft seas targeting the US West Coast. But overall a very weak storm pattern is forecast.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (12/16) the jetstream was consolidated pushing off Japan on the 32N latitude line with winds 140 kts in one pocket just off the coast but splitting heavily with energy peeling off to the north just west of the dateline tracking up into the North Bering Sea then falling south joining the main flow over the Central Gulf. The main flow is to be tracking east forming a weak trough northwest of Hawaii being fed by 110 kts winds offering little. Where the two flows reconsolidated in the Gulf winds built to 130-140 kts and were pushing inland over the Pacific Northwest producing weather there. Over the next 72 hours a variation on the same theme is to continue with the main feature a massive split in the jet over the Central North Pacific offering zero support for gale formation. Beyond 72 hours starting Sat (12/20) more of the same is forecast with a massive split in the jet starting now just off Japan and the 2 streams not reconsolidating until reaching a point about 1000 nmiles off the CA-OR border with 140 kt winds pushing inland over Oregon and extreme North Ca into Tues (12/23) offering nothing but weather there. No support for gale formation is indicated. This looks like a classic Inactive MJO pattern developing, stealing energy from the jet and causing it to heavily split. The focus continues to be the North Atlantic.

Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (12/16) lingering small swell was hitting Hawaii from a gale that lifted north over the dateline days previous (see Small Dateline Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours swell from a gale that developed over the Kuril Islands extending east slightly might be tracking to Hawaii (see Kuril Gale below). A small local low developed west-northwest of Hawaii (see Hawaiian Local Low below). And a stalled front was off the US West Coast offering some hope for CA (see North CA Local Front below). But in all, these are just desperation systems. We've pretty much given up on any real surf developing for at least the next 2 weeks or until the jetstream recovers from what appears to be effects from the Inactive Phase of the MJO tracking east over the Equatorial Pacific.

Small Dateline Gale
A gale developed just west of the dateline on Wed AM (12/10) producing 30 kt northwest winds and seas building. In the evening the gale was lifting north with northwest winds 45-50 kts and seas 34 over a tiny area at 38.5N 168E aimed southeast at Hawaii. On Thurs AM (12/11) the storm was tracking north with 55 kt northwest winds and seas briefly 37 ft at 41.75N 168.75E aimed southeast. Fetch held position while fading in the evening from 40 kts with seas fading from 26 ft at 40.5N 169E aimed southeast. The gale dissipate from there. Swell to result for Hawaii.

Oahu: Residuals on Tues (12/16) fading from 3.9 ft @ 13 secs (5.0 ft). Swell Direction: 310 degrees

Kuril Gale
A gale developed just off the South Kuril Islands on Sun PM (12/14) with 35 kt northwest winds and seas building from 23 ft at 40N 154E aimed east. On Mon AM (12/15) northwest winds were 40-45 kts with seas 26 ft over a small area at 43N 150E aimed east. Fetch was fading in the evening from 35 kts while lifting north with seas fading from 25 ft at 44.25N 154.75E aimed east. The gale dissipated after that. Minimal swell if anything possible for the Hawaiian Islands. Something to monitor.

Hawaiian Local Low
Also a gale organized over the southern dateline region Sun PM (12/14) producing northwest winds at 30-35 kts and seas 21 ft at 33N 180W aimed well at Hawaii. On Mon AM (12/15) the gale fell southeast fast with northwest winds 30 kts over a small area and seas 22 ft at 29.5N 180W targeting Hawaii well. In the evening northwest winds were 25 kts over a tiny area with seas 17 ft at 27N 177W aimed southeast. On Tues AM (12/16) the gale was still producing winds at 35 kts but only in it's north quadrant aimed west with seas 20 ft at 30N 174W also aimed to the west and not targeting our forecast area. The low is to track east from there passing north of Hawaii early on Wed (12/17) producing north winds 35 kts and seas 23 ft at 31.75N 163.5W aimed south. Fetch and seas gone after that. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Small swell possible on Wed (12/17) building to 4.2 ft @ 12 secs later (5.0 ft). Swell possibly rebuilding Thurs (12/18) to 5.8 ft @ 13-14 secs (7.5 ft) later. Swell fading Fri (12/19) from 5.3 ft @ 11-12 secs early (6.0 ft0. Residuals fading Sat (12/20) from 4.8 ft @ 11-12 secs early (5.5 ft). Swell Direction: 300 degrees moving quickly to 330 and then 350 degrees

North CA Local Front
Also low pressure was in the Northern Gulf Sun AM (12/14) producing 35 kts northwest winds and 23 ft seas at 48N 158W aimed southeast. Fetch fading in the evening. A front from the low was falling southeast off the US West Coast producing westerly winds at 30-35 kts with seas building. In the evening the core fetch is to fade by the front is to continue east with 30-35 kts southwest winds off the Oregon and North CA with seas 19 ft at 40N 143W aimed east. The front is to be moving into Oregon Mon AM (12/15) with 20 ft seas off the CA-OR border at 42N 133W aimed east.

North CA: Windswell possible starting Tues (12/16) peaking in the afternoon at 5.3 ft @ 12-13 secs (6.5 ft). Swell fading Wed AM (12/17) from 4.9 ft @ 11-12 secs (5.5 ft). Swell Direction: 275 degrees

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Wed AM (12/17) low pressure is to be moving onshore over Oregon with northwest winds 15 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest 5-10 kts for the rest of North CA and Central CA early but 15 kts south of Monterey Bay. In the afternoon more low pressure sets up well off the OR-CA border with northwest winds 10 kts for North CA and northwest 15-20 kts south of Monterey Bay. Rain for North CA and showers south to Santa Cruz early then dry for the entire state afterwards.
Thurs AM (12/18) low pressure impacts Oregon down to the CA border with south winds 20 kts for Cape Mendocino and light winds for the rest of North CA and San Francisco and northwest winds 15 kts south of Monterey Bay. In the afternoon southwest winds to be 15-20 kts for Cape Mendocino and south 5 kts for the rest of North CA and northwest 10 kts for Central CA but 15 kts south of Monterey Bay. Showers for Cape Mendocino through the day.
Fri AM (12/19) a front falls south over Pt Arena dissolving there with south winds 15-20 kts for Cape Mendocino and south 10 kts for the rest of North CA and northwest 15 kts south of Monterey Bay. In the afternoon the front is gone with northwest winds 5-10 kts for North CA and northwest 10 kts for Central CA but 15 kts south of Monterey Bay. Rain building south for all of North CA early building south to Half Moon Bay in the evening. No snow forecast for the Sierra.
Sat AM (12/20) a light pressure pattern sets up with east winds 5-10 kts for North CA and northwest 10 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon east winds to be 5-10 kts for North CA and northwest 10-kts for Central CA mainly south of Monterey Bay. Rain for all of North CA down to Monterey Bay after sunset.
Sun AM (12/21) low pressure starts building well off the coast with south winds 5 kts for North CA early and northwest 5 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon a weak front develops over Central CA with southwest winds 15 kts for all of North CA and southwest 5 kt for Central CA. Rain clearing fast for North CA early the redeveloping in the afternoon from Monterey Bay northward. Snow for Tahoe through the day and evening.
Mon AM (12/22) a weak pressure pattern sets up with northwest winds 5 kts for North CA and south 5 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northeast winds are forecast at 5-10 kts for North CA and south 5-10 kts south of Monterey Bay. Rain for North CA down to Half Moon Bay steady through the day. Snow limited for Tahoe.
Tues AM (12/23) a weak front is possible developing over Central CA with northeast winds 10 kts for North Ca and south 5-10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon the front builds with it's core over San Francisco with north winds 10 kts for Cape Mendocino and south winds 15-20 kts for Central CA. Rain for North CA starting to build over Central CA in the afternoon. Low odds of snow to Tahoe.

Sierra Snow Forecast: (focused on Olympic Valley): Freeze level roughly 10,500 ft through Thurs (12/18) then falling to 8,500 ft Fri (12/19) stabilizing through Sun (12/21) before falling more to 8,000 ft 12-22-12/23. then dropping to about 7.000 ft Wed (12/24) and beyond. Snow accumulation for Olympic Valley: 96 inches with a little starting Mon (12/22) and a big dump starting on Wed (12/24) continuing through the holidays. 59 inches for Mammoth with most starting Wed (12/24).

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell producing weather systems of interest were occurring.

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours some sort of a weird cutoff gale is forecast developing over the South Dateline Region Sat-Tues (12/23) producing 20-24 ft seas at 31N 168E aimed mostly south. On Tues perhaps fragments of 20 ft seas are to develop in the lows south quadrant targeting Hawaii. Low odds for swell resulting for Hawaii.

And maybe a low pressure system is to to develop in the Northern Gulf tracking towards California Mon-Tues (12/23) producing up to 18 ft seas aimed southeast.

La Nina Is In the Ocean - But Fading in the Atmosphere
Cool Waters Dominate NINO3.4
In April 2025 weakly warm water surged east filling the Equatorial West Pacific and built into the East Equatorial Pacific. Then in late July 2025 a cool pool emerged over the East Equatorial Pacific along with a strengthened negative PDO suggesting La Nina was returning. But the SOI held generally neutral into December suggesting the atmosphere was not coupled with the ocean to support development of a wholesale La Nina. Then in Dec a long forecasted slow and steady fading of enhanced trades took over the equatorial Pacific an is to hold for the foreseeable future. Perhaps a full return to ENSO neutral is finally setting up over the equatorial Pacific.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption (1/15/2022) muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected, but never developed more than Modoki status.

Rationale: A Modoki La Nina developed in the Fall/Winter of 2024-25. It faded in Summer of 2025 then started turning toward La Nina again in Aug 2025. Considering it takes 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean was just starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly La Nina in late Aug, it seems La Nina could try to build into the jetstream/atmosphere in late Fall (Dec 2025). But the models suggest a return to ENSO neutral in Jan 2025. The other consideration is the PDO also appears to be still be in the cool phase if not cold, and it seem unlikely to change in the next 6 months. The net result is a trend towards La Nina as Fall progresses. And though the models suggest ENSO neutral to weak La Nina into Winter 2025/26, the PDO will overwhelm whatever push there is towards and ENSO neutral pattern beyond, resulting in some form of La Nina for the foreseeable future. This will result in less storm activity in the Northern Hemisphere for Fall-Winter 2025-26 with less storm days and smaller fetch area resulting in smaller and less frequent winter swells. One factor that could mitigate all of this is the fact the leading edge of the low pressure bias has already moved from 125E to 150E and west anomalies are forecast to build over the equatorial West Pacific over the coming months (Fall). If this happens, which is definitely up for debate, this could add fuel to the jetstream as it moves over the West Pacific making it strong and helping to improve support for storm development over the dateline as Winter processes. Most of the Pacific could be under La Nina, but the jetstream could be trending towards El Nino. As of right now, that is more of a minority outcome rather than a certainty.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 135E to 170W - The main area for generating Kelvin Waves)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (12/15) 5 day average winds were strong east over the far East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the dateline and moderate to strong west over the KWGA mainly south of the equator. Anomalies were light east over the East Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and light east over the dateline and moderate west over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (12/16) Today mostly weak east anomalies were filling the KWGA east of 160E and west anomalies west of there. The forecast indicates west anomalies slowly and steadily retrograding and gone from the West Pacific by 12/21 with moderate to strong east anomalies filling the KWGA to 12/29 then east anomalies collapsing and holding through the end of the model run on 1/1/26.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (12/15) Currently moderate Inactive MJO (dry air) was indicated over the Maritime Continent easing into the far West Pacific with the Active Phase (wet air) over the dateline and points east of there. The statistic model depicts the pattern holding on day 5 and 10 then fading with the Inactive MJO (dry air) filling the KWGA at moderate status. The Dynamic model indicates the same thing but with both Phases of the MJO gone on day 10 with the Inactive MJO taking over a modest status on day 15.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (12/16) - The models depict the Active Phase was very weak and over the Atlantic. The statistic model has it moving east to the Central Indian Ocean 15 days out at weak status. The dynamic model indicates the same thing.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (9/1) This model is stuck or corrupt.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (12/15) Today neutral anomalies were filling the west 50% of the KWGA but with an Inactive contour at the entrance to the far West KWGA and east anomalies over the east KWGA. The forecast has this pattern holding through 12/29 then with east anomalies backfilling into the KWGA filling it through the end of the model run on 1/12/26.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (12/14) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Inactive Phase of the MJO was filling the KWGA with east anomalies mostly east of 160E and neutral anomalies west of there. This pattern is to hold through 1/7/26 when the Inactive MJO pushes east of the KWGA. On 1/1/26 the first contour of the Active Phase of the MJO moves into the far West KWGA with west anomalies building there. The Active Phase is to be really filling the the KWGA 1/17-2/26 with moderate west anomalies in control. The Inactive Phase is to follow 2/10 through the end of the model run on 3/15 but with solid west anomalies in control. The low pass filter indicates the leading edge of the low pressure bias was over the West Pacific reaching east to 140E and is forecast retrograding to 130E on 2/8 then pushing east to the dateline at the end of the model run. The trailing/west edge of the high pressure bias was at 165E today with 2 contours and is to start easing east on 1/20/26 and gone by 2/22.

Subsurface Waters Temps
Today (12/16) in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was steady at 173E. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 176W. The 24 degree isotherm was steady at 123W. Warm anomalies were +3 degs in the far West Pacific at depth at the thermocline (-150m) reaching east to 160W with cooler water east of there to Ecuador with a pocket at -2 degs filling the area from 150W to Ecuador. In all cool waters are still in control of the East Pacific. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 12/9 indicates weak cool anomalies were filling the upper ocean above the thermocline (75 meters or higher) east of 165E. Down at the thermocline (-150m) cool anomalies were in control east of 150W (previously 155W) to Ecuador (a cold water Kelvin Wave). Warm anomalies were filling the West Pacific. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (12/9) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative (-0.5 cms) from Ecuador to 150W. -10 cms anomalies were embedded in that area only -5 degs north and south of the equator near 150W. The entire East Equatorial Pacific was in a cool pattern, but it seems that some warming is occurring. Heights were weakly above normal from 170W and points west of there. The cool pool is weakly fading over equator in the East Pacific.
Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (12/9) indicates cool anomalies were filling the equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to 1112W (previously 148W) and dramatically losing coverage. Warm anomalies were surging east to 153W (previously 158W). On 7/15 we went from ENSO neutral to some flavor of weak La Nina.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (12/15) The latest images depict a clear cool pool filling the equatorial Pacific from the Galapagos to 170E with embedded cooler pockets evenly spread across that area and building in intensity. This looks like La Nina is in control. Alternate SST Anomaly (Global Mean): Warmer anomalies were limited west of the dateline with cooler waters east of there to Ecuador.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (12/15): Temps were cooling evenly from the Galapagos to 140W suggesting building east anomalies there. Temp were steady elsewhere.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (12/16) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps falling at -1.538 and have been falling steadily since 12/8.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (12/16) Today's temps were steady at -1.538 falling from -1.141 2 days earlier and have been falling since 12/9 after rising to -0.922 (12/7), rising since 11/26.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were rising at -0.5 degs (week of 12/3). Previously temps were -0.6 (11/26), -0.8 (11/19), -0.7 (11/5 & 11/12), -0.6 (10/15, 10/22 & 10/29), -0.3 (10/8), -0.5 (9/24 & 10/1), -0.4 (9/17), -0.5 (9/10), -0.3 (9/3), -0.4 (8/20 & 8/27).
Monthly Data is -0.69 Nov, -0.50 Oct, -0.47 Sept, -0.36 Aug, -0.14 July -0.06 June, -0.13 May, -0.14 April, +0.01 March, -0.43 Feb, -0.73 Jan.
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.85 SON, -0.76 (ASO). -0.63 (JAS), -0.47 (JJA), -0.43 (MJJ), -0.49 AMJ, -0.52 (MAM), -0.67 (FMA), -0.89 (JFM), -1.12 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose unexpectedly to +0.025 in March then faded only to -0.1 in April (far less that the -0.40 forecast) then steady at 0.00 in May-June. Temps started falling in mid-July down to -0.3 in Aug, -0.45 Sept and -0.40 in Oct.
Forecast (12/15) - Sea Surface Temp Anomalies for Nov did NOT fall nearly as hard as previously forecast (forecast was -0.95 but actual was -0.7) and then did not fall in Dec (forecast at -7.0 actual was -0.6). Temps are forecast holding rising to technically neutral at -0.50 Jan, -0.45 degs mid-Jan then neutral (0.0) in Mar 2026 and building after that. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same. It looks like we're in a weak Modoki La Nina for the Fall of '25 at worst, then turning neutral before reaching Winter proper.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Nov 19, 2025 Plume (all models) depicts temps are at -0.649. Previous projections were -0.633 and -0.623. Temps to rise to -0.533 in DJF and 0.084 in AMJ. The Dynamic model suggest temps rising to -0.529 DJF and +0.543 at the end of the model run. The Statistic model suggests temps rising to -0.538 up to -0.082 at the end of the model run. In other words, We are just barely at weak La Nina today but back to neutral in January and forecast rising slowly from there indicating ENSO Neutral this Fall and Winter.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (12/16) the Daily Index was falling at -0.88 and has been negative mostly from 11/28-12/12, positive the rest of the past month.
The 30 day average was falling some at +3.68 peaking at 17.97 on 11/23, and had been rising steadily from +14.55 a month ago.
The 90 day average was steady at +7.31 and in weak La Nina territory rising from +8.06 a month ago peaking at +9.60 11/23.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Negative is bad, Positive is good)
Past Recent History: The PDO theoretically turned from a warm (positive) trend in Spring of '98 and has cool (negative) mostly since then other than turning weakly positive March 2014-June 2017. It went hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec 2024 and -1.32 in Jan 2025.
Current Situation: The index was steady at -1.67 Nov, -2.40 Oct, -2.38 Sept (and inline with average readings since Nov 2021), -3.18 Aug after falling hard in July at -4.0 (the lowest ever), -2.51 June, -1.71 May, -1.18 April, -1.12 March and -1.45 Feb 2025. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any meaningful duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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