Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 3.4 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 1.9 ft @ 13.0 secs from 252 degrees. Water temp 78.6 (Barbers Pt), 77.9 (Pearl Harbor 233), 79.3 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 8.0 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 5.1 ft @ 12.1 secs from 321 degrees. Water temp 78.3 degs.
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 6.5 ft @ 10.5 secs with swell 4.6 ft @ 11.0 secs from 327 degrees. Water temp 78.6 degs
Buoy 46025 (Santa Monica Basin): Seas were 3.5 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 2.8 ft @ 13.6 secs from 266 degrees. Wind southeast 8-10 kts. Water temperature 63.1 degs, 62.1 (Harvest 071), 63.3 (Topanga 103), 63.5 (Long Beach 215), 63.5 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 63.1 (Del Mar 153), 64.2 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 5.1 ft @ 15.2 secs from 298 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 2.8 ft @ 15.1 secs from 282 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.5 ft @ 15.6 secs from 263 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 1.5 ft @ 13.5 secs from 236 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.1 ft @ 13.2 secs from 212 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.5 ft @ 14.7 secs from 270 degrees. Water temperature 64.4 degrees.
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): (using 46026/142 - 029 is Down) Seas were 5.9 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 4.2 ft @ 13.5 secs from 290 degrees. Wind east 18-21 kts (Bodega Bay 46013), E 20-25 kts San Francisco (46026), NA (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and NE 12 (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp 56.1 (Bodega Bay 46013), NA (Pt Reyes 029), 56.1 (San Francisco 46026), 55.2 (SF Bar 142), NA (Half Moon Bay 1801589), 56.5 (Monterey Bay 46092), 56.7 (156 Monterey Outer Canyon).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Friday (12/12) in North and Central CA surf was 2 ft overhead on the sets and lined up if not occasionally closed out but with some rideable sections and clean with brisk offshore winds early. Protected breaks were chest to maybe head high and lined up if not closed out and clean with offshore winds early. At Santa Cruz surf was head high on the set and lined up with good form and clean and with a little power. In Ventura County waves were shoulder high on the sets and lined up with good form and peeling and clean. Central Orange County had sets at shoulder high and lined up with good form and clean early. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets to shoulder high and lined up with good form and real clean. North San Diego had sets at waist high and lined up with good form but with a little northeast warble in it early. Oahu's North Shore had sets at head high to 1 ft overhead and lined up with good form and real clean early. The South Shore had sets at waist high plus and lined up with decent form and clean but soft early. The East Shore was getting minimal tradewind generated east windswell at thigh to maybe waist high and relatively clean with no wind early.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Friday (12/12) Hawaii and California were getting swell from a modest gale that tracked east-southeast from just west of the dateline Sat-Tues (12/9) tracking to the Central Gulf producing 26-27 ft seas aimed southeast. After that a small gale lifted north from just west of the dateline Wed-Thurs (12/11) producing 33-37 ft seas aimed east. And maybe a small system is to develop off the Kurils on Mon (12/15) producing 29-30 ft seas aimed briefly east but not making any east headway. A weak system is to develop in the Northern Gulf Mon (12/15) producing 20-26 ft seas aimed briefly southeast at the Pacific Northwest and Northern CA. Additional fetch is forecast off the OR-CA border Wed (12/17) with 18-20 ft seas aimed east. Overall a weak pattern is forecast.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Friday (12/12) the jetstream was consolidated pushing off Japan on the 34N latitude line with winds 130 kts but with some energy peeling off to the north just west of the dateline tracking up into the North Bering Sea but decent energy at 130 kts continuing east from the split point reaching a point 600 nmiles north of Hawaii then weaker while tracking northeast up into British Columbia. A weak trough was embedded in this flow on the dateline offering support for low pressure development. Over the next 72 hours more of the same is forecast but with the split flow becoming cutoff over the Bering Sea on Sat (12/13) and a more defined stationary trough over the dateline continuing to support low pressure development there into Mon (12/15). But another split is forecast off Japan then pushing to the north. Beyond 72 hours starting Wed (12/17) more of the same is forecast with the jet pushing east off Japan at 140 kts but splitting with some energy lifting northeast just off the Kuril Islands tracking up into the Bering Sea with the main flow continuing east on the 25N latitude line then the jet reconsolidates over the Gulf with a single flow pushing into the Pacific Northwest at 130 kts. By early Sat (12/20) no change is forecast but with the jet in the east sagging south now over the CA-OR birder bring weather to North CA. The Inactive MJO is to continue negatively interacting with the jetstream.

Surface Analysis
On Friday (12/12) swell is to be hitting Hawaii and California originating from a gale that developed over the dateline (see Another Dateline Gale below). And small swell was propagating towards Hawaii from a gale that lifted north over the dateline (see Small Dateline Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours a gale is forecast developing just off the South Kuril Islands on Sun PM (12/14) with 40 kt northwest winds and seas building from 25 ft at 41N 148E aimed east. On Mon AM (12/15) northwest winds to be 40 kts with seas 27 ft at 43N 151E aimed east. Fetch is to be fading in the evening from 30 kts while lifting north with seas fading from 26 ft at 46N 153E aimed northeast. Doubtful much if any swell to result. Something to monitor.

Another Dateline Gale
On Fri PM (12/5) a tiny gale started developing off the Kuril Islands producing 35-40 kts west winds and seas building. The gale tracked northeast Sat AM (12/6) with 40-45 kt west winds over a tiny area and seas 23 ft at 46.5N 168E aimed southeast. In the evening fetch built in coverage with 35-40 kts northwest winds and seas 26 ft at 45.5N 171.25E aimed southeast. On Sun AM (12/7) a building fetch of 35-45 kts west-northwest winds were over the dateline with seas 26 ft at 43.75N 175E aimed east-southeast. In the evening west winds were falling southeast at 35-40 kts over an elongated area reaching from west of the dateline to almost Canada with seas 28 ft at 41.75N 178.25W aimed east. On Mon AM (12/8) 30-35 kt west winds tracked east with seas 25 ft at 43.25N 169W aimed east. Fetch was fading in the evening from 30 kts 1,200 nmiles north-northwest of Hawaii with seas fading from 23 ft at 42.5N 163.5W aimed east. The gale dissipated after that. Modest swell possible for Hawaii and the US West Coast.

Oahu: Swell fading on Fri (12/12) from 3.8 ft @ 11 secs (4.0 ft). Dribbles on Sat (12/13) fading from 3.9 ft @ 10 secs (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 325-330 degrees

North CA: Swell fading Fri AM (12/12) from 5.0 ft @ 14 secs early (7.0 ft). Residuals on Sat (12/13) fading from 2.8 ft @ 12-13 secs early (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 294-295 degrees

Small Dateline Gale
A gale is forecast developing just west of the dateline on Wed AM (12/10) producing 45 kts west winds and seas building. In the evening the gael is to be lifting north with northwest winds 45-50 kts and seas 36 over a tiny area at 39N 166E aimed southeast at Hawaii. On Thurs AM (12/11) the storm is to track north with 55 kt northwest winds and seas briefly 37 ft at 42.5M 168.5E aimed southeast. Fetch fading in the evening from 40 kts with seas fading from 26 ft at 42N 169E aimed southeast. The gael to dissipate from there. maybe some swell to result for Hawaii.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Sun (12/14) building to 6.0 ft @ 13-14 secs at sunset (8.0 ft). Swell fading Mon (12/15) from 4.8 ft @ 12-13 secs early (5.5 ft). Swell Direction: 310 degrees

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Sat AM (12/13) northeast winds to be 5 kts for North CA and east 5-10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon winds to be south 5 kts for Cape Mendocino and northeast 10 kts for the rest of North CA and Central CA. No precip forecast.
Sun AM (12/14) low pressure starts building off the Pacific Northwest with south winds to be 5-10 kts limited to Cape Mendocino and northeast 5 kts for the rest of North CA and all of Central CA. In the afternoon winds to be south 5-10 kts for Cape Mendocino and calm for the rest of North CA and Central CA. No precip forecast.
Mon AM (12/15) low pressure moves up to the coast of the Pacific Northwest with south winds to be 10 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest 5 kts for the rest of North CA and northwest 5 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon southwest winds to be 10 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest 5-10 kts for the rest of North CA and northwest 15 kts for Central CA south of Monterey Bay. Rain for Cape Mendocino later.
Tues AM (12/16) another low builds just off the Pacific Northwest with southwest winds to be 10 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest 5 kts for the rest of North CA and northwest 10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon southwest winds to be 10-15 kts for Cape Mendocino and south 5 kts for the rest of North CA and northwest 15-20 kts south of Monterey Bay. Rain for Cape Mendocino all day moving south to Bodega Bay late.
Wed AM (12/17) low pressure is to be onshore with northwest winds 5-10 kts for North and Central CA early but 15 kts south of Monterey Bay. In the afternoon more low pressure sets up off the OR-CA border with southwest winds 10 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest 5 kts for the rest of North CA and northwest 15-20 kts south of Monterey Bay. Showers south to the Golden Gate early then dry for the entire state afterwards.
Thurs AM (12/18) low pressure impacts Oregon down to the CA border with south winds 20 kts for CApe Mendocino and light winds for the rest of North CA and northwest winds 15 kts south of Monterey Bay. In the afternoon west winds to be 10 kts for Cape Mendocino and south 5 kts for the rest of North CA and northwest 10 kts for Central CA. Showers for North CA in the evening.
Fri AM (12/19) low pressure lingers with light winds for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds build to 15 kts for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA. Rain for all of North CA early building south to Half Moon Bay mid-AM with snow developing over the Sierra.

Sierra Snow Forecast: (focused on Olympic Valley): Freeze level 12,000 ft through Mon (12/15) Then falling steadily to 9,000 ft or less Wed (12/17) dropping to 7.000 ft or less Thurs (12/18) and holding. through 12/21. Snow accumulation for Olympic Valley: 4 inches on 12/21 and 0 inches for Mammoth.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell producing weather systems of interest were occurring.

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours starting Mon AM (12/15) an area of low pressure and disturbed weather is to set up in the Northern Gulf of Alaska producing 30-35 kts north winds and seas 21-22 ft at 48N 161W aimed south at Hawaii and 53N 148W aimed southeast at CA. Fetch fading from 30-35 kts in the evening with seas 19-20 ft at 45N 160W aimed south of Hawaii and 22 ft at 53N 145W aimed southeast mainly at the Pacific Northwest. Nothing after that.

Perhaps some sort of a gale is to be trying to organize just northwest of Hawaii on Tues AM (12/16) producing northwest winds at 30 kts and seas 21 ft at 27N 175W aimed southeast. Fetch fading some in the evening with seas 17 ft at 26N 169W aimed east. The low is to persist into Friday (12/19) and effectively stationary but all fetch aimed to the west and nothing forecast in the lows southern quadrants aimed at the Islands. Something to monitor.

Also on Wed AM (12/17) northwest winds are to be falling southeast over the East Aleutians at 30-35 kts with 20 ft seas at 50N 155W aimed southeast. In the evening northwest winds to be 30-35 kts over an elongated area extending from the East Aleutians to just off the Pacific Northwest with seas 18-20 ft centered at 46N 153W aimed southeast. On Thurs AM (12/18) fetch is to consolidate just off Oregon from the west at 30-35 kts and seas 21 ft at 45N 133W aimed east. Raw swell possibly for the Pacific Northwest.

La Nina Is In the Ocean - But Fading in the Atmosphere
Cool Waters Dominate NINO3.4
In April 2025 weakly warm water surged east filling the Equatorial West Pacific and built into the East Equatorial Pacific. Then in late July 2025 a cool pool emerged over the East Equatorial Pacific along with a strengthened negative PDO suggesting La Nina was returning. But the SOI held generally neutral into December suggesting the atmosphere was not coupled with the ocean to support development of a wholesale La Nina. Then in Dec a long forecasted slow and steady fading of enhanced trades took over the equatorial Pacific an is to hold for the foreseeable future. Perhaps a full return to ENSO neutral is finally setting up over the equatorial Pacific.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption (1/15/2022) muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected, but never developed more than Modoki status.

Rationale: A Modoki La Nina developed in the Fall/Winter of 2024-25. It faded in Summer of 2025 then started turning toward La Nina again in Aug 2025. Considering it takes 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean was just starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly La Nina in late Aug, it seems La Nina could try to build into the jetstream/atmosphere in late Fall (Dec 2025). But the models suggest a return to ENSO neutral in Jan 2025. The other consideration is the PDO also appears to be still be in the cool phase if not cold, and it seem unlikely to change in the next 6 months. The net result is a trend towards La Nina as Fall progresses. And though the models suggest ENSO neutral to weak La Nina into Winter 2025/26, the PDO will overwhelm whatever push there is towards and ENSO neutral pattern beyond, resulting in some form of La Nina for the foreseeable future. This will result in less storm activity in the Northern Hemisphere for Fall-Winter 2025-26 with less storm days and smaller fetch area resulting in smaller and less frequent winter swells. One factor that could mitigate all of this is the fact the leading edge of the low pressure bias has already moved from 125E to 150E and west anomalies are forecast to build over the equatorial West Pacific over the coming months (Fall). If this happens, which is definitely up for debate, this could add fuel to the jetstream as it moves over the West Pacific making it strong and helping to improve support for storm development over the dateline as Winter processes. Most of the Pacific could be under La Nina, but the jetstream could be trending towards El Nino. As of right now, that is more of a minority outcome rather than a certainty.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 135E to 170W - The main area for generating Kelvin Waves)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (12/11) 5 day average winds were strong east over the far East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong west over the dateline and moderate west over the KWGA mainly south of the equator. Anomalies were light east over the East Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the dateline and moderate west over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (12/12) Today modest west anomalies were filling the KWGA to 170E. The forecast indicates west anomalies slowly but steadily retrograding and gone from the West Pacific by 12/19 with moderate east anomalies filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 12/28.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (12/11) Currently a very weak Active MJO (wet air) was centered just east of the dateline with a weak Inactive MJO (dry air) over the far West Pacific. The statistic model depicts the Active MJO (wet air) holding position while strengthening slightly on day 5 of the model run and the Inactive Phase starting to fill the KWGA. More of the same on days 10 and 15 but with the Inactive Phase mostly filling the KWGA at moderate strength. The Dynamic model indicates much the same but with the Active Phase and Inactive Phase gone on day 15 of the model run.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (12/12) - The models depict the Active Phase was very weak and over Africa. The statistic model has it holding a very weak status migrating to the Central Indian Ocean 15 days out. The dynamic model indicates the Active Phase holding position and strength over the next 2 weeks over Africa. .
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (9/1) This model is stuck or corrupt.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (12/11) Today west anomalies were filling 75% of the KWGA with an Active MJO contour all but gone east of the dateline and an Inactive contour at the entrance to the far West KWGA. The forecast has west anomalies slowly retrograding to the west but still holding at 150E filling 50% of the KWGA through 12/25, then collapsing and gone from the KWGA on 12/28 with east anomalies filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 1/8/26.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (12/12) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Active Phase of the MJO (contours and west wind anomalies) were fading fast mostly east of the dateline with the Inactive Phase moving east over the West KWGA but with west anomalies still mostly in control of the KWGA. The Active MJO is to be gone by 12/14. The Inactive Phase is to track east filling the KWGA through 1/24/26 but with a mix of weak west and east anomalies filling the KWGA. The Active Phase of the MJO and modest west anomalies are to develop 1/21/25 holding through the end of the model run on 3/11. The low pass filter indicates the leading edge of the low pressure bias was over the West Pacific reaching east to 140E and is forecast retrograding to 130E on 2/3 then pushing east from 165E at 2/16 pushing to 175E at the end of the model run. The trailing/west edge of the high pressure bias was at 165E today with 1 contour and is to start easing east on 1/21/26 and gone by the end of the model run.

Subsurface Waters Temps
Today (12/11) in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was steady at 173E. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 175W. The 24 degree isotherm was steady at 123W. Warm anomalies were +3 degs in the far West Pacific at depth at the thermocline (-150m) reaching east to 160W with cooler water east of there to Ecuador with a pocket at -2 degs filling the area from 150W to Ecuador. In all cool waters are still in control of the East Pacific but not growing due to an Active Phase of the MJO slowly pushing east over the Equatorial Pacific. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 12/4 indicates weak cool anomalies were filling the upper ocean above the thermocline (75 meters or higher) east of 165E. Down at the thermocline (-150m) cool anomalies were in control east of 155W to Ecuador (a cold water Kelvin Wave). Warm anomalies were filling the West Pacific. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (12/4) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative (-0.5 cms) from Ecuador to 165W (previously 150W). -10 cms anomalies were embedded in that area on the equator from 120W to 140W with a pocket over the Galapagos. The entire East Equatorial Pacific was in a cool pattern, but it seems that some warming is occurring. Heights were weakly above normal from 175W and points west of there. The cool pool is weakly fading over equator in the East Pacific.
Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (12/4) indicates cool anomalies were filling the equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to 148W and losing some coverage. Warm anomalies were west of 158W. On 7/15 we went from ENSO neutral to some flavor of weak La Nina.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (12/11) The latest images depict a clear cool pool filling the equatorial Pacific from the Galapagos to 170E with embedded cooler pockets evenly spread across that area. This looks like a weak La Nina is in control. Alternate SST Anomaly (Global Mean): Warmer anomalies were limited west of the dateline with cooler waters east of there to Ecuador.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (12/11): Temps were cooling evenly from the Galapagos to 130W suggesting building east anomalies there. Temp were steady elsewhere.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (12/12) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were at -1.207 and have been falling steadily the last 4 days (since 12/8) but otherwise rising since 11/17.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (12/12) Today's temps were steady at -1.050 since 12/9 after rising to -0.922 (12/7), rising since 11/26.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were rising at -0.5 degs (week of 12/3). Previously temps were -0.6 (11/26), -0.8 (11/19), -0.7 (11/5 & 11/12), -0.6 (10/15, 10/22 & 10/29), -0.3 (10/8), -0.5 (9/24 & 10/1), -0.4 (9/17), -0.5 (9/10), -0.3 (9/3), -0.4 (8/20 & 8/27).
Monthly Data is -0.53 Oct, -0.47 Sept, -0.36 Aug, -0.14 July -0.06 June, -0.13 May, -0.14 April, +0.01 March, -0.43 Feb, -0.73 Jan.
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.78 (ASO). -0.63 (JAS), -0.47 (JJA), -0.43 (MJJ), -0.49 AMJ, -0.52 (MAM), -0.67 (FMA), -0.89 (JFM), -1.12 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose unexpectedly to +0.025 in March then faded only to -0.1 in April (far less that the -0.40 forecast) then steady at 0.00 in May-June. Temps started falling in mid-July down to -0.3 in Aug, -0.45 Sept and -0.40 in Oct.
Forecast (12/6) - Sea Surface Temp Anomalies for Nov did NOT fall nearly as hard as previously forecast (forecast was -0.95 but actual was -0.7). Temps are forecast holding at -0.70 through mid-Dec then rising to technically neutral at -0.50 early Jan, -0.30 degs mid-Jan then neutral (0.0) in Feb 2026 and building after that. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same. It looks like we're in a weak Modoki La Nina for the Fall of '25 at worst, then turning neutral before reaching Winter proper.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Nov 19, 2025 Plume (all models) depicts temps are at -0.649. Previous projections were -0.633 and -0.623. Temps to rise to -0.533 in DJF and 0.084 in AMJ. The Dynamic model suggest temps rising to -0.529 DJF and +0.543 at the end of the model run. The Statistic model suggests temps rising to -0.538 up to -0.082 at the end of the model run. In other words, We are just barely at weak La Nina today but back to neutral in January and forecast rising slowly from there indicating ENSO Neutral this Fall and Winter.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (12/12) the Daily Index was falling at -4.67 and has been negative mostly since 11/28 but has been positive the rest of the past month.
The 30 day average was rising some at +3.79 after falling to 3.24 on 12/8 peaking at 17.97 on 11/23, and had been rising steadily from +13.44 a month ago.
The 90 day average was rising some at +7.17 and in weak La Nina territory rising from +7.37 a month ago peaking at +9.60 11/23.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Negative is bad, Positive is good)
Past Recent History: The PDO theoretically turned from a warm (positive) trend in Spring of '98 and has cool (negative) mostly since then other than turning weakly positive March 2014-June 2017. It went hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec 2024 and -1.32 in Jan 2025.
Current Situation: The index was steady at -2.40 Oct, -2.38 Sept (and inline with average readings since Nov 2021), -3.18 Aug after falling hard in July at -4.0 (the lowest ever), -2.51 June, -1.71 May, -1.18 April, -1.12 March and -1.45 Feb 2025. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any meaningful duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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