BUOY ROUNDUP
Thursday, December 5, 2024 :

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Thursday (12/5) in North and Central CA waves were 1-2 ft overhead and lined up and clean with calm wind but pretty soft. Protected breaks were waist to chest high and lined up and clean and a bit closed out and soft. At Santa Cruz surf was chest high on the sets and somewhat lined up and clean but soft. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist to chest high on the sets and well lined up with good form and clean but with some surface texture and soft. Central Orange County had sets at chest high and lined up with good form and clean but soft. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had surf at head high and lined up and real clean early but pretty soft. North San Diego had sets at waist high and lined up and real clean but also pretty soft. Oahu's North Shore had sets at 2-3 ft overhead and lined up and clean though with a bit of warbled in it early. The South Shore was waist high but pretty well warbled by modest south wind. The East Shore was getting no real swell with waves thigh high and clean with light south wind early.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Thursday (12/5) southern hemi swell was fading out in Hawaii and arriving in California from a gale that developed south and southeast of New Zealand Sun-Mon (11/25) with seas to 35 ft aimed well northeast. And swell was fading along Hawaii's North Shore and arriving in California from the first in a series of 3 small gales that developed on the dateline and far Western Gulf. The first was Sat-Sun (12/1) with 31 ft seas aimed east. The second Mon-Tues (12/3) with 21-24 ft seas and a third developed Tues-Wed (12/4) with 19-20 ft seas aimed southeast and east. Some of this energy to reach the US West Coast, though well decayed. A stronger system to follow Thurs-Sat (12/7) in the Western and Northeastern Gulf with 26-30 ft seas aimed east. Another is to follow in the Northwestern Gulf Fri-Sun (12/8) with up to 40 ft seas aimed east over a small area. And secondary energy to result from it in the Western Gulf Sun-Mon (12/9) with 35 ft seas aimed east over a small area. Another is forecast for the Northern Gulf Mon-Tues (12/10) with 37 ft seas aimed east. And maybe another is forecast off the Kuril Islands on Thurs (12/12) with 34 ft seas aimed east. A pretty active pattern is suggested regardless of the MJO being quite Inactive. It might have something to do with a strong Active Phase over the Maritime Continent feeding the jet allowing it to push strongly downstream over the Central North Pacific.

See all the details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Thursday (12/5) the jetstream was consolidated pushing east off Japan on the 34N latitude line the whole way to a point 1,000 nmiles west of Oregon with winds 170 kts to the dateline and 160 kts off the US West Coast but 130 kt in between with a weak trough north of Hawaii offering some support for gale formation. Over the next 72 hours the trough is to hold into early Fri (12/6) then dissolves while the jet west of there builds with winds to 190 kts forming a new trough north of Hawaii on Sat-Sun (12/8) offering renewed support for gale formation. Beyond 72 hours starting Mon (12/9) the jet is to start pulsing off Japan riding slightly over the dateline falling into the new trough north of Hawaii with winds to 210 kts supporting gale formation in the Northwestern Gulf but that trough pinching off on Tues (12/10) no longer supporting gale formation though the jet west of there is to remain quite healthy. The jet to weaken on the dateline Wed (12/11) with a new trough building in the Northern Gulf on Thurs (12/12) with winds feeding it to 140 kts offering support for gale development. But winds are to hold steady at 150 kts consolidated running east from Japan to the dateline offering more potential beyond. It certainly appears an Active MJO over the Maritime Continent is feeding the jet pushing it downstream a good ways across the Pacific before its momentum fades.

Surface Analysis
On Thursday (12/5) swell from the 1st in a series of gales was hitting California and swell from the 2nd in the series was poised for Hawaii (see 1st, 2nd and 3rd Dateline Gales below).

Over the next 72 hours the 3rd gale in the series is to be developing with alot more beyond.

1st Dateline Gale
The first gale in a series developed on the dateline Sat AM (11/30) producing 35-40 kts northwest wind over a small area just west of the dateline and seas starting to build. In the evening 35-40 kt northwest winds were pushing east with seas building to 29 ft over a small area at 43N 178.75E aimed southeast and 31 ft overnight at 42.5N 178.25W. On Sun AM (12/1) northwest winds were fading from 35 kts with seas 27 ft at 42N 175.25W aimed east. Fetch dissipated in the evening with seas from previous fetch fading from 22 ft at 41.5N 170W aimed east.

Oahu: Swell fading Thurs (12/5) from 4.6 ft @ 12 secs early (5.5 ft). Swell Direction: 315 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (12/5) building to 3.8 ft @ 12-13 secs mid-day (4.5-5.0 ft). Swell building Thurs (12/6) to 4.4 ft @ 13 secs early (5.5 ft). Swell Direction: 294-295 degrees

2nd Dateline Gale
A second gale formed Sun PM (12/1) just west of the dateline falling more southeast with 30+ kt northwest winds and seas building. On Mon AM (12/2) northwest winds built in coverage at 35 kts targeting Hawaii directly with seas building from 19-20 ft at 37.5N 178.5E aimed southeast. In the evening northwest winds were 30-35 kts some 1,200 nmiles northwest of the Islands with seas 21 ft at 37N 175.25W aimed well at the Islands. On Tues AM (12/3) fetch pulsed some at 35 kts aimed mostly east now with seas building to 24 ft at 39.5N 171.5W. In the evening fetch is to be fading fast from 30 kts in the Western Gulf with seas fading from 23 ft at 41N 164.75W aimed east. This system is to be gone after that. More swell is to be targeting Hawaii and then the US West Coast.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival first light on Fri (12/6) peaking at 6.7 ft @ 12-13 secs (8.0-8.5 ft) dropping through the day. Residuals early Sat (12/7) fading from 4.1 ft @ 12 secs (5.0 ft). Swell Direction: 325-330 degrees.

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (12/7) building to 4.6 ft @ 14 secs (4.5 ft) mid-AM. Swell fading Sun AM (12/8) from 3.9 ft @ 13 secs (5.0 ft) and getting buried in local windswell Swell Direction: 288 degrees

3rd Dateline/Gulf Gale
Yet a third modest gale developed on the North Dateline Wed PM (12/4) falling hard southeast with 30-35 kt northwest winds over a small area and seas building. On Thurs AM (12/5) northwest winds were 30-35 kts just west of the dateline 1,200 nmiles northwest of Hawaii with seas 23 ft at 43N 171.75W aimed southeast at the Islands. In the evening the gale is to turn east over the Northwestern Gulf with west winds 35-40 kts and seas 25 ft at 40.75 164.5W aimed east and southeast mainly targeting the mainland. Fri AM (12/6) west winds to be 35 kts in the Gulf with seas 25 ft at 41.5N 155.25W aimed east targeting Oregon and California. Fetch is to lifting northeast in the evening with west winds 35-40 kts and seas 27-28 ft at 48N 147.5W aimed east. On Sat AM (12/7) fetch is to be tracking east at 35-40 kts now off Washington with seas 30 ft at 47.5N 142W aimed east. The gale to be fading off Vancouver Island in the evening with seas fading from 28 ft at 48N 134W aimed east then impacting Vancouver Island. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Rough data suggest swell arrival later on Sat (12/7) building to 5.3 ft @ 14-15 secs (7.5 ft) at sunset. Swell Direction: 330 degrees

North CA: Rough data suggests swell arrival on Mon (12/9) before sunrise fading from 5.6 ft @ 14 secs (7.5 ft) early. Swell direction: 305 degrees

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
No tropical weather systems of interest are being tracked.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Snow Levels for Tahoe (focused on Palisades Tahoe): Freeze level 10,500 ft through 12/6 building to 12,500 ft 12/7 then falling to 8,500 ft 12/8-12/9 before rebuilding to 10,500 ft 12/10-12/12 finally falling to 5,000 ft early on 12/13 and falling to 1,000 ft beyond.

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
Swell from a gale southeast of New Zealand is fading out in Hawaii and building along the US West Coast (see New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

A gale developed just south of New Zealand late Sat (11/3) producing 26 ft seas at 54.25S 175E aimed northeast into Sun AM (12/1) at 25 ft at 51.5S 174.5W aimed northeast. Background swell is possible mainly for Tahiti but nothing meaningful for Hawaii or the US West Coast. .

New Zealand Gale
Another gale developed pushing east under New Zealand Sun PM (11/24) with 40-45 kt southwest winds and seas 32 ft at 57.75S 165.25E aimed northeast. On Mon AM (11/25) southwest winds built in coverage at 40 kts with seas 35 ft at 55.75S 173E aimed northeast over a modest sized area. In the evening fetch continued tracking east-northeast at 40 kts with seas 34 ft at 53.25S 175.5W. Fetch was fading Tues AM (11/26) from 35 kts with seas 28 ft at 51.5S 164.75W aimed east-northeast. Fetch fading out in the evening with seas from previous fetch fading from 24 ft at 54S 153.75W aimed east. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Residuals on Thurs (12/5) fading from 1.2 ft @ 13-14 secs early (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 195 degrees.

Southern CA: Swell building steadily through the day Thurs (12/5) to 1.7 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell steady Fri (12/6) at 1.6 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5 ft). Swell fading Sat (12/7) from 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 208 degrees

North CA: Swell building steadily through the day Thurs (12/5) to 1.6 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell steady Fri (12/6) at 2.1 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0 ft) but possibly being overrun by more northerly swell. Swell fading Sat (12/7) from 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 207 degrees

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours starting Fri PM (12/6) a storm is forecast developing just west of the dateline with 45-50 kts northwest and west winds and seas building from 24 ft at 38N 176W aimed southeast. Sat AM (12/7) fetch is to expand while tracking east-northeast with 45-50 kt west and northwest winds and seas 37 ft at 41.5N 168.75W aimed east and southeast. The storm fades to gale status in the evening with 40-45 kt west winds in the Western Gulf with seas briefly to 40 ft then down to 37 ft at 45.25N 163W aimed east. Sun AM (12/8) the gale is to be lifting north up in the Northwest Gulf while fading producing west winds 35 kts with seas fading from 31 ft at 45N 164W aimed east. Fetch and seas gone in the evening. Something to monitor.

Another tiny storm is forecast developing on Sun AM (12/8) with 55 kts west winds and seas building from 32 ft at 43.5N 175.75W aimed east. In the evening the storm races east with 55 kt west winds and seas 35 ft at 42N 162W aimed east. On Mon AM (12/9) fetch is to be gone with seas from previous fetch fading from 28 ft 43N 151.25W aimed east. Something to monitor.

And yet another gale is forecast developing in the Northwestern Gulf on Mon PM (12/9) with 45 kts northwest winds and seas 30 ft at 46.5N 167.5W aimed east. On Tues AM (12/10) 50 kt west winds are forecast lifting northeast in the Northern Gulf with seas 35 ft at 49.75N 158.5W. In the evening the gael lifts to the North Gulf with 45 kt west winds and seas 37 ft at 53.75N 150.75W aimed east. The gale is to move northeast and inland over Alaska from there.

And maybe another gael is to form off the North Kuril Islands on Thurs PM (12/12) producing west winds at 50 kts and seas 37 ft at 48N 171.5E aimed east.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

MJO Pattern Strengthens
Models Suggest a Weak La Nina Event
9 downwelling warm water Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and 5 upwelling Kelvin Waves have traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific starting Feb 2024 and continue erupting over the East Equatorial Pacific. The atmosphere is moving to weakly La Nina mode and that will continue to build, but not expected to move beyond weak status.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected and continue building today.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but as of late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it take 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean is just now starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly into a La Nina pattern, it seems La Nina will not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025. And 2 months later Winter will be fading and any support for La Nina to build will be fading with it. Therefore, we can assume we are at best going to be in weak La Nina conditions as we get deep into the Winter of '24/'25. Conversely El Nino 23/24 faltered because of a persistent high pressure background state (in the Pacific) attributable to the PDO being in a long running cold state (which in turn mimics a modest La Nina background state). And there is no signs of that changing. The net result is that the atmosphere is stuck in a long running weak La Nina background state which in turn suppresses storm and swell development effectively setting up an atmosphere with no momentum towards either strong La Nina or strong El Nino. As a result the forecast for the coming winter season will reflect the atmospheres tendency to not actively support storm formation though not actively completely hindering it either.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (12/4) water sensors are all up in the east but wind sensors are partially down in the far east. 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were light east over the far East equatorial Pacific and moderate to strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (12/5) Today strong east anomalies were filling the KWGA with the Inactive Phase of the MJO in control. The forecast suggests east anomalies holding at strong status while filling the KWGA and the whole of the equatorial Pacific through then end of the model run on 12/21 but weakening in the West Pacific starting 12/15 and becoming weaker on the dateline the last day of the model run. West anomalies are at equally strong status but locked west of the West Pacific over the Maritime Continent (since 11/20) and are not forecast reaching into even the far West Pacific for any meaningful duration. The Inactive Phase of the MJO is here.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (12/5) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm was gone, previously at 162E. The 29 degree isotherm was backtracking west to 173E. The 28 deg isotherm line was backtracking at 176W from 170W. The 24 degree isotherm was no longer reaching east the whole way across the Equatorial Pacific, making it east to only 130W. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +1 degs in the far West Pacific. A pool of generally cold anomalies at up to -1.0 degs were in the East Pacific thermocline from 145W into Ecuador. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 11/29 clarifies the situation indicating cold anomalies were filling the the thermocline from the dateline east at -0.5 to -1.0 deg and 0.5 degs colder in the far east. The density and volume of that cold water at depth was not impressive (a good thing). The cool pool appears isolated and has no path to replenish it. Warm anomalies were filling the area west of the dateline and building. La Nina is here but there is no pathway for more cold water to move from the West Pacific eastward. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (11/29) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 cms from Ecuador to 165W with no -10 cms indicated. It appears the cool pool is fading for the moment. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (11/29) cold water started filling the Equatorial Pacific early March then retracted in June, rebuilt in coverage mid-July, then retracted in Aug, rebuilt in early Sept then quickly faded early Oct. Today the cool pool is fading fast while retracting east extending west to only 130W at 0 to -0.5 degs (previously 148W last week of Oct and 152W 3rd week of Oct) with no cold center. A La Nina pattern is in play with 5 pulses so far but not strongly so. Warm water is limited in coverage west of the dateline and getting steadily warmer in the far West Pacific. The subsurface temperature forecast suggests that this is the last pulse of cold water forecast with warm water in the west blocking the development of any more cold water Kelvin Waves. Interesting. Is the subsurface cool pool dissolving?

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (12/4) The latest images depict a La Nina cool stream was filling the equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to a bit west of the dateline (165E) and not very strong but weakly consistent across that area. We are in La Nina, but not strongly.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (12/4): A near neutral pattern was in control of the East equatorial Pacific from the Galapagos to 130W indicating no trend towards warming or cooling.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (12/5) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to a mist recent 30 year base period where this less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were rising some at -0.376 after peaking at +0.265 (11/22), starting the upward rise on 11/4-5 when anomalies were as low as any previous reading (near -1.4 degs), and hovered between -1.5 to -1.0 starting 9/22.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (12/5) Today's temps were falling at -0.927 and have been falling after rising to -0.475 (11/22) and generally steady since 11/4, lower near -1.0 degs 9/21-10/28, and had been falling steadily in pulses since 6/30. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20 and but then rebuilt hovering near neutral 6/2 through 6/30.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were -0.3 week of 11/27. Previously temps were -0.1 (11/20), 0.0 (11/13), -0.3 (11/6), -0.2 (10/30), -0.5 (10/23), -0.3 (10/16), -0.5 degs (10/9), -0.3 (10/2), -0.2 degs (10/25), -0.5 degs (9/18 the first time solidly negative), -0.2 (9/11), -0.1 (9.4), -0.2 (8/28), 0.0 (8/21), -0.1 degrees (8/14) +0.0 (8/7) -0.2 degrees (7/31) and the first week negative in a year, +0.1 (week of 7/24), +0.2 (7/17), +0.3 (7/10 and 7/3), +0.4 ( 6/26) +0.3 (6/19) +0.0 (week of 6/12) +0.1 (6/5 & 5/29) +0.2 degs (5/15 and 5/22), +0.3 (5/8), +0.5 (5/1), +0.8 (4/24), +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data is -0.19 Nov, -0.26 Oct., -0.25 Sept, -0.11 August, +0.05 July, +0.18 June, +0.24 May, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +1.52 Feb, +1.82 Jan 2024, +2.02 Dec (2023), +2.02 Nov, and +1.72 Oct (2023).
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.80 (SON), -0.75 (ASO), -0.63 (JAS), -0.51 (JJA), -0.45 (MJJ), -0.26 (AMJ), +0.06 MAM, +0.50 FMA, +0.86 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.47 ft for NDJ 2023 (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.49 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb then down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and then +0.25 mid June falling to -0.15 degs in mid-Aug, -0.3 mid Sept and -0.35 mid-Oct and up to -0.2.0 in Nov. Temps did not fall anywhere near as fast or hard as forecast.
Forecast (12/5) - Temps to fall hard to -1.0 in Dec and -1.25 in Jan before rebounding to -0.30 in April 2025 and holding there into June building to -0.5 in July. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same steep drop with temps to -1.0 degs in Dec and -1.1 degs in Jan then rebounding as described above. None of this is believable since the CFS model has been showing steep drops in temps since July 2024 and those drops never materialize. We are only moving to a weak La Nina.
IRI Consensus Plume: The November 19, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.475 degs today (unchanged from last month) and is the 6th month below neutral since El Nino developed. Temps to fall a little more down to -0.496 in Dec (3 month running mean) then then rising from there to +0.173 JJA (June July Aug). This is an upgrade with temps previously forecast down to -0.944 (per the April model run). The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.565 in Nov and the Statistic down to -0.367 in Nov. Both these projections are about like before but only suggest a bare minimal week La Nina.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (12/5) the Daily Index was positive at 28.70 today, and positive the last 26 days, negative 12 days before, positive the previous 10 days, negative the previous 4 days, positive 18 days previous, negative the previous 5 days, positive 4 days previous, negative the 11 days before that, positive 22 days previous. Over the past month it was a mix of positive and negative.
The 30 day average was rising at +10.95 and has been weakly positive the last month. Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was rising some at +4.34 and still effectively neutral as it has been the last month. The first positive value was on 9/5 since the demise of El Nino. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
We are in ENSO neutral status.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling to -1.52 in March 2024, -2.12 April, -2.99 May, -3.16 in June, -2.99 July, -2.91 Aug and -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. In Nov the index final rose some to -3.24. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table