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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Tuesday, November 29, 2022 2:59 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
2.2 - California & 4.0 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 11/28 thru Sun 12/4

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Japan Swell Hitting HI
Stronger Dateline Storm Forecast - Weather for CA

 

BUOY ROUNDUP
Tuesday, November 29, 2022 :

  • Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt)/Buoy 239 (Lani): Seas were 2.8 ft @ 16.7 secs with swell 2.2 ft @ 16.9 secs from 314 degrees. Water temp 78.4 degs (Barbers Pt), 78.4 (Pearl Harbor 233), 79.0 (Lani 239).
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 6.3 ft @ 16.7 secs with swell 4.7 ft @ 16.8 secs from 307 degrees. Water temp 77.9 degs.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.5 ft @ 5.6 secs with swell 1.9 ft @ 9.3 secs from 252 degrees. Wind northwest at 10-12 kts. Water temperature 61.5 degs, 60.6 (Topanga 103), 60.8 degs (Long Beach 215), 61.7 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 60.3 (Del Mar 153), 60.1 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 5.7 ft @ 7.4 secs from 312 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.4 ft @ 6.2 secs from 270 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 2.9 ft @ 8.4 secs from 269 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 3.9 ft @ 8.4 secs from 279 degrees. Water temperate was 61.7 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 10.1 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 6.5 ft @ 10.2 secs from 319 degrees. Wind north at 10-14 kts. Water temp 52.0 (Bodega Bay 46013), 54.0 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 53.2 (San Francisco 46026), 53.8 (SF Bar 142), 52.3 (Pt Santa Cruz 254) and 53.4 (Monterey Bay 46042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (11/29) North and Central CA had sets at chest high on the sets and fairly lined up but mushed with intermixed warble and unremarkable. Protected breaks were chest high on the sets and clean and pretty closed out. At Santa Cruz surf was waist to chest high on the peaks of sets waves and reasonably lined up and clean but soft and a little warbled. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist high on the sets and lined up and clean but soft with some intermixed warble. Central Orange County had sets at waist to chest high and somewhat lined up but mushed and nearly chopped from brisk south wind. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at maybe waist high and lined up but super mushed and nearly chopped. North San Diego had sets at thigh to waist high and heavily warbled and not really rideable. Hawaii's North Shore had sets at double overhead plus and clean and lined up and well rideable. The South Shore was flat to thigh high on the sets and clean and soft. The East Shore was getting east windswell at thigh to waist high and clean with no wind.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (11/29) Hawaii was getting fresh swell from a gale developed just off Japan tracking east Thurs-Sat (11/26) producing up to 37 ft seas aimed east but did not make it east to the dateline. That swell is radiating towards California. And yet another is developing just west of the dateline and is to hold stationary Mon-Wed (11/30) with up to 40 ft seas aimed well east. Beyond another gael is forecast over the North Dateline region Sat-Sun (12/4) producing 47 ft seas aimed east. And 2 local systems are forecast falling south off the Pacific Northwest Wed-Thurs (12/1) with 26 ft seas aimed south and then the second on Fri-Sat (12/3) with 22 ft seas aimed south. Looks like weather for California.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (11/29) the jetstream was consolidated pushing east off then Kuril Islands then falling southeast into a developing trough on the dateline being fed by 140 kt winds offering support for gale development. But east of there the jet was split with most energy pushing hard north over the Central Aleutians up into the Bering Sea then turning southeast falling down over the Canadian and US West Coast moving inland over Oregon while the southern branch tracked weakly east from the split point and into Mexico offering nothing. Over the next 72 hours the dateline trough is to wither late Thurs (12/1) just pushing east of the dateline and no longer supporting gale development. The jet is to be split just west of the dateline with most energy running hard north up beyond the Bering Sea then falling hard southeast with a trough falling down the US West Coast Thurs (12/1) with a second one right behind on Fri (12/2). Beyond 72 hours that trough is to continue falling south moving inland over North CA on Mon (12/5) likely producing weather for California. Back to the west on Sun (12/4) wind energy is to be building in the consolidated portion of the jet to 180 kts pushing towards the Northern Dateline region possibly supporting gale development then progressing to the Northwestern Gulf Tues (12/6) while starting to fall southeast possibly setting up gale development beyond. At that time the split portion of the jet is to be producing a ridge building over the US West Coast likely offering stable air.


Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (11/29) small swell from a gale the developed over the dateline was impacting North CA (see Dateline Gale below). And swell from a gale previously off Japan was impacting Hawaii and weakly bound for the US West Coast (see Japan Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours another storm is to be circulating on the dateline targeting primarily Hawaii with lesser and buried energy for the US West Coast (see Dateline Storm below).

On Wed AM (11/30) a local gale is to be developing just off British Columbia producing north winds at 35-40 kts with seas building from 22 ft at 48N 138W aimed south. In the evening fetch is to be falling south off Washington from the north at 35 kts with seas 26 ft at 47.75N 136.75W aimed south. On Thurs AM (12/1) fetch is to be fading from 30 kts off Oregon with seas 22 ft at 43N 135.75W aimed south. The gale is to dissipate off North CA in the evening.

North CA: Raw swell to possibly arrive the afternoon of Thurs (12/1) building to 6.5 ft @ 11-12 secs later (7.5 ft). Swell continues on Fri (12/2) at 6.8 ft @ 13 secs early (8.5 ft). Swell Direction: 310 degrees

Another local gale is to develop off Washington on Fri AM (12/2) with 30-35 kts northwest winds and seas 21 ft at 47.75N 140.5W aimed southeast. The gale to fall south off Oregon in the evening with 35 kts north winds and seas 20 ft at 45N 136W aimed southeast. On Sat AM (12/3) 35 kt north winds to are to be off North CA with 20 ft seas at 42N 135W aimed southeast. In the evening winds are to be fading from 30 kts from the north with seas 18 ft just off Cape mendocino at 40N 132W aimed south. More raw swell likely for North CA starting late Sat (12/3).

 

Dateline Gale
A gale developed on the dateline Wed PM (11/23) producing 45 kt west winds and seas 36 ft at 36.25N 170E aimed east. Fetch lifted northeast on Thurs AM (11/24) at 35-45 kts with seas 36 ft at 39.25N 176E aimed east and northeast. The gale faded in the evening with southwest fetch fading from 35-40 kts and seas fading from 33 ft at 42.5N 176W aimed east and northeast. Residual fetch faded Fri AM (11/25) in the Northwestern Gulf at 35 kts aimed mostly northeast with seas 28 ft at 44N 170W. The gale was gone after that. Something to monitor mainly for the US West Coast.

Oahu: No energy is expected to reach the Hawaiian Islands.

North CA: Swell peaking on Tues (11/29) at 3.2 ft @ 15 secs early (4.5 ft) and buried in local windswell. Swell Direction: 300 degrees

 

Japan Gale
On Thurs AM (11/24) a storm developed just off North Japan with 50 kt northwest winds and seas building from 30 ft over a tiny area at 36N 151E aimed east. In the evening the gale tracked northeast slowly with west winds 45-50 kts with seas 29 ft over a tiny area at 38N 158E aimed east. On Fri AM (11/25) the storm was lifting hard northeast with 50-55 kt northwest winds and seas 35 ft at 42.25N 163E aimed east and still well west of the dateline. In the evening fetch was fading from 45 kts from the northwest still west of the dateline with seas 33 ft at 43N 163.75E aimed east. On Sat AM (11/26) the gale was tracking east with 40 kt northwest winds and seas fading from 31 ft at 42.5N 167E aimed east. In the evening remnants of the gale are to be approaching the dateline with north winds fading from 30-35 kts and seas 27 ft at 40.5N 172.25E aimed east. The gale is to dissipate from there.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Tues (11/29) building to 4.1 ft @ 16 secs later (6.5 ft). Swell fading on Wed (11/30) from 4.0 ft @ 14 secs early (5.5 ft). Dribbles on Thurs (12/1) fading from 2.5 ft @ 12 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 315 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (12/1) building to 2.2 ft @ 15 secs later (3.0 ft). and getting buried by locally produced swell. Swell Direction: 298 degrees

 

Dateline Storm
Another storm was developing just west of the dateline Mon AM (11/28) with 50-55 kt west winds over a small area and seas building from 27 ft at 34.75N 169.25E aimed east. Fetch built in the evening at 55 kts from the west with the storm holding nearly stationary and seas building to 35 ft at 36N 175.5E aimed east. The gale held on the dateline Tues AM (11/29) with 50-55 kt west winds and seas 40 ft at 38.25N 176.75E aimed east and southeast. Fetch is to be fading in the evening from 40-45 kts from the west and northwest with seas 32 ft at 38N 179E aimed east. Fetch is to be fading Wed AM (11/30) from 35-40 kts and seas fading from 27 ft at 36.75N 177E aimed southeast. The gale is to be gone after that.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Thurs PM (12/1) building to 4.2 ft @ 17-18 secs at sunset (7.0 ft). Swell still decent Fri AM (12/2) fading from 5.6 ft @ 15 secs early (8.5 ft). Swell fading on Sat AM (12/3) from 4.3 ft @ 14 secs early (6.0 ft). Residuals on Sun AM (12/4) fading from 3.1 ft @ 12 secs (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 310-315 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (12/3) building to 2.5 ft @ 17 secs later (4.0 ft) with local windswell intermixed. Swell building on Sun (12/4) to 4.0 ft @ 15 secs early (6.0 ft) but buried in locally generated swell. Swell fading on Mon (12/5) from 2.0 ft @ 13 secs (2.5 ft) and still buried. Swell Direction: 287 degrees

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored at this time.

California Nearshore Forecast

  • Wed AM (11/30) northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts North CA and 5-10 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon south winds are forecast at 15-20 kts for Pt Arena northward and south 5-10 kts down to the Golden Gate and northwest at 5 kts for Central CA. Cold rain developing for Cape Mendocino late afternoon and building southward overnight.
  • Thurs AM (12/1) south winds are forecast at 20 kts for the SF Bay Area with northwest winds 15 kts north of there and south winds 10-15 kts south of there to Pt Conception. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 15 kts for all of North and Central CA. Solid rain and snow forecast for the Golden Gate northward early building south to Pt Conception at sunset and Santa Barbara County overnight. Heavy snow developing for Tahoe at sunrise building south and continuing for the entire Sierra through the day then fading early evening.
  • Fri AM (12/2) southwest winds are forecast at 10 kts early Pt Arena northward and northeast 5-10 kts Pt Reyes southward into Central CA. In the afternoon south winds are forecast at 30 kts for Cape Mendocino and 20 kts down to Pt Arena with south winds 10 kts down to the Golden Gate. Light northeast winds for Central CA. Light rain early for Pt Conception and quickly fading. Light rain for Cape Mendocino later. No snow for the Sierra.
  • Sat AM (12/3) low pressure is to be off the OR-CA border with south winds are forecast at 30 kts for Pt Arena northward and 10 kts down over the SF Bay Area but clam south of there. In the afternoon south winds are forecast at 15-20 kts for North CA and northwest 10 kts for Central CA with the dividing line near Half Moon Bay. Rain pushing south from Cape Mendocino to the Golden Gate through the day and to Morro Bay overnight. Snow developing for Tahoe in the evening.
  • Sun AM (12/4) the low is to be off Pt Arena with south winds forecast at 10-15 kts for all of North and Central CA. In the afternoon the low is to be off Bodega Bay with south winds 10 kts for all of North and Central CA but turning northeast at 15 kts for Cape Mendocino. Rain for all of North and Central CA early starting to fade late afternoon focused mainly of the SF Bay Area. Snow for the Sierra through the day.
  • Mon AM (12/5) the low is to be moving inland over Central CA with north winds 15 kts for North CA and south winds 10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon high pressure builds some with northwest winds 15 kts for all of North and Central CA. No precip forecast.
  • Tues AM (12/6) northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts for North CA early and 15 kts for Central CA. Light showers for Cape Mendocino early.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 41, 49, 35, and 20 inches. All split between Thurs (12/1) and Sun (12/5).

Freezing level for Lake Tahoe is 6.500 ft today then falling below 6,000 ft on 11/30 and staying there till 12/6 when it rises to 10,0000 and holds there.

- - -

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

 

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell producing fetch has occurred with no swell in the water or radiating towards the coast.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a gale is forecast developing Fri PM (12/2) off North Japan mid-way to the the dateline producing 45 kt northwest winds with seas building from 27 ft at 43.5N 164.5E aimed southeast. On Sat AM (12/3) northwest winds are to be lifting northeast at 55 kts approaching the north dateline region with seas building from 40 ft at 45.75N 171.5E aimed southeast. In the evening northwest winds are to be 50 kts solid over the North Dateline region with seas 47 ft at 48.5N 176.5E aimed east. On Sun AM (12/4) fetch is to be moving into the Bering Sea and mostly shadowed by the Central Aleutian Islands with seas from previous fetch fading from 39 ft at 50.75N 179E aimed east. Something to monitor.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Upwelling Trying to Hold
Weak West Wind Anomaly Pattern Setting Up over KWGA - SOI Falling Some
Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21, faded in May and June 2022, but rebuilt in late July and is holding today. La Nina conditions are in control oceanically but appear to be fading some on the surface south of Nino3.4. And atmospherically anomalous Westerly Winds are starting to develop in the West KWGA and are forecast to continue for the foreseeable future, with La Nina collapsing near Christmas and water temps rising beyond. The outlook is turning more optimistic.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed through the Winter of 2022 and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2022 = 4.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen and a full double dip pattern took hold through the Winter of 21/22. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December 2022 with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter 2022. But by later in Jan or early Feb 2023 a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct 22-Jan 23, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by Feb 2023, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The net result is we're currently thinking a near normal number of swells with normal size and duration is to result, but all focused sometime after Jan 2023. The swell pattern will be below normal before Jan and above normal after Jan 23 with the average of the two being 'normal'. Of course this is all highly speculative at this early date.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (11/28) 5 day average winds were moderate strength from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and modest east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral to weak west over the East equatorial Pacific and weak east over the Central Pacific and modest east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1-2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (11/29) Weak west anomalies were filling most of the KWGA today. The 7 day forecast calls for weak east anomalies building over the KWGA for the next week but with one strong east anomaly pocket developing just west of the dateline 12/3 through the end of the model run on 12/6. The 2 week GFS model suggest modest east anomalies are over most of the KWGA today building on 12/3 to moderate strength and holding through 12/12, then fading with west anomalies nearly filling the KWGA 12/15 and beyond. West anomalies are to be weak over the East Pacific non-stop.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (11/28) A weak Active Phase of the MJO signal was indicated today over the East KWGA. The statistical model indicates it fading on day 5 then gone on day 10 with a modest Inactive MJO developing over the West KWGA and filling it on day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model suggests the Inactive Phase never developing with a neutral MJO signal on days 5 through 15 of the model run.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (11/29) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was modest over the East Pacific and is to track east over the Atlantic and Into the Indian Ocean 2 weeks and very weak. The dynamic model suggest the Active Phase tracking east fast and reemerging weakly over the Maritime Continent 15 days out.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (11/29) A weakly Inactive MJO (dry air) was developing over the KWGA and is forecast to traverse the equatorial Pacific through 2/19. A neutral pattern biased Active (wet air) is to follow developing over the KWGA 12/24 filling the Pacific through the end of the model run on 1/8.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/28)
A weak Active MJO signal was trying to push east into the KWGA today with weak west anomalies starting to fill the KWGA. Moderate west anomalies are build over the KWGA filling it 11/29-12/15 then losing ground with east anomalies weakly taking over 12/21 through the end of the model run on 12/26. A change appears to be occurring.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind):
(11/26) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today a nearly neutral MJO signal was over the KWGA biased weakly Inactive with weak west anomalies in control of the KWGA. Weak west anomalies are to hold filling the KWGA through 12/25 as the weak Inactive MJO traverses the KWGA through 1/25. Weak east anomalies are forecast in the KWGA 12/28-1/24 becoming focused on the dateline. But the Active Phase of the MJO is to follow over the KWGA 1/12 through the end of the model run on 2/26 with west anomalies mostly filling the KWGA. The big change we've been anticipating is underway marked by the arrival of west anomalies filling the KWGA starting on 11/16. East anomalies are to be relegated to or east of the dateline moving forward. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 2 contour lines centered at 180W with its western perimeter at 150E today. The second contour is to collapse on 12/20 with the primary contour collapsing or east of the KWGA at the end of the model run. A broad double contour low pressure bias is established centered over the West Maritime Continent at 90E with it's leading edge at 125E today and is to slowly start pushing east starting today reaching east to 160E at the end of the model run. This is all a big deal and is being repeated in some form consistently from one run of the model to the next. It appears that the high pressure lockdown of the KWGA is starting to fade with no return in sight and suggests the demise of La Nina is starting to occur.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (11/29) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was gone, previously at 171E. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 176E. The 26 degree isotherm was steady at 154W. The 24 deg isotherm backtracked from 118W to 128W and was at 130W today. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +3 deg C were in a broad pocket in the far Central Pacific down 150m with it's leading edge easing east from 150W to 130W. A pocket of cool anomalies at -2 degs C were centered at 115W and filling the area from 130W and points east of there and steady. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 11/24 indicates the same broad area of warm anomalies in the west pushing east to 135W and far warmer. A cool pocket was filling the area east of 130W with it's core at 110W and reaching the surface and far cooler. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (11/24) Sea heights were stable but negative over the East Equatorial Pacific. A broad pocket of positive anomalies were over the equator in the far West Pacific reaching east to 155W. A pocket of negative anomalies were covering from Ecuador to 145W with a core of -15 cm anomalies between 105W-130W and -10 cm anomalies easing east from 135W. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram cool anomalies were in retreat positioned in the Central Equatorial Pacific between 145W to Ecuador with a cold core between 115W-125W and easing east. It appears the stubborn cool pool is starting to track east.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (11/28) The latest images depict a broad generic pool of cool water extending west from Peru to the dateline and filling well south of the equator in a line east to west down at 20S. The coldest stream was embedded in it running from Ecuador to 145W on the equator but weaker than days past. And the broad area of cool water south of that stream reaching south to 25S was losing intensity steadily. A broad area of warm water was present on the equator from Ecuador west to 140W but mostly just north of the equator starting at 2N. Overall this indicates the late stages of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (11/28): A stream of warming waters extended west from Ecuador to 140W. Warming was also solid along Peru and Chile extending west to 140W and weaker the whole way across the South Pacific. The balance was clearly towards warming.
Hi-res Overview: (11/28) Persistent cool waters cover a large area from Ecuador to 160E on and south of the equator from South America down at 25S with the coolest waters between 80W to 130W directly over the equator. But the intensity and density of those cold waters are in steep decline over it's entire area. Warmer than normal waters were on the equator in the east aligned in a thin stream from Ecuador to 120W starting 3 degrees north of the equator. La Nina remains in control over the East Equatorial Pacific but the density and intensity of the cooling appears to be fading.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/29) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs compared to official sources). Today's temps were rising to -1.617 after warming to -1.570 a few days around 11/17 and that after falling to to -2.177 (11/8) and generally falling to the following points -1.850 (10/20), -1.498 (9/21) and had been falling since 9/14 after being in the -1.0 range since 7/29. Coral Reef indicates temps rising steadily at -1.218 after falling to the lowest in weeks after rising to nearly -1.0 degs on 11/17, previously toggling between -1.8 to -2.1 degs since Oct 9th. Temps were down on 7/20 to -1.6 degs. Previously temps were stable near -1.4 degrees 6/12 through 7/27. Peaks in that time frame were -1.189 (7/7), -1.534 (7/5). Previously temps were at -1.822 on 6/9 after being up to -1.506 (5/21) and that after hovering around -2.0 degs since 4/21/22. Prior to that temps were fading after peaking at +0.760 on 3/18. Temps had been moving upwards since 2/20, and beat a previous high of -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3/22 and -1.954 on 12/18/21, the lowest this year so far. Previously temps dropped on 11/24/21 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. That year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(11/29) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs). Today's temps were steady at -0.868 after falling to -1.110 on 11/3 and up to -0.900 on 10/18 beating a previous peak of -0.819 on 9/22 and were in the -1.0 range since 8/16. Coral Reef indicates temps were rising at -0.870 and have been rising for 12 days after bottoming out at -1.168 degs on 11/2 after falling hard the previous 12 days. Temps had fallen since 7/15 reaching La Nina threshold on 7/27 after being more or less steady the previous 3 weeks peaking at -0.25 on 7/14 and -0.275 on 7/5. Previously temps had been on an upward trend since 5/15/22 rising to -0.414 degs (6/19) and -0.493 on 6/9, the first reading above La Nina threshold values since Sept 2021. Temps were down to -0.929 (5/2/22) and that after rising to a peak at -0.704 on 3/27 and had been on a gentle rising trend since falling to -1.012 on 3/8. Previously temps were rising slightly to -0.505 on 2/2 and that after reaching a peak low of -1.096 on 1/3/22 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2/21, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept/21. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1/21 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March 2021. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs. A steady decline set in after that falling to -1.00 degs in Aug and earl Sept rising to -0.8 degs mod Oct.
Forecast (11/29) - Temps are to be steady at about -1.00 degs into early Dec then starting a fairly steady rise hitting -0.65 degs mid January and reaching above the La Nina threshold (-0.5 degs) the last week of Jan and up to +0.85 degs in August and in El Nino territory. This model suggests we are going to steadily transition towards ENSO neutral in Jan. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps bottoming out at -1.00 the 1st week of Dec and then are to start pushing up to -0.60 degs mid- Jan rising above La Nina threshold the 3rd week of Jan and rising from there forward to +0.60 degs in July and holding in August. All this is a significant upgrade. According to this version of the model we will hold in weak La Nina conditions through Fall before starting a trend towards neutrality in Dec with momentum towards El Nino in Spring. The surface temp coverage model suggests a temps holding steady through Nov. then a steady erosion of the coldest waters south of Nino3.4 (down at 20S) is to begin. By Dec a clear discharge of La Nina is to begin with near neutral temps prevailing over the entire equatorial Pacific and turning fully neutral in Feb and beyond. The greater equatorial Pacific cool signature looks to hold through mid-Oct then quickly dissolving beyond.
IRI Consensus Plume: The November 18, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.921 degs today. Temps to rise steadily from here forward to -0.732 degs in Dec and above the La Nina Threshold at -0.494 in Jan and -0.256 in Feb rising to +0.572 in July. This model suggests a continuation of minimal La Nina temps through early Dec then transitioning to ENSO neutral. This model is in line with the CFS model.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (11/29) the Daily Index was rising at +27.80 but was generally at +10.0 or lower from 11/-11/27. It was negative for 5 days dropping to -31.05 on 11/7. This was the first negative run in months and suggests that the westerly anomaly wind activity in the West Pacific might be having an impact on the SOI. Previous peaks were +37.19 (10/5), +33.57 (5/24), +40.77 (5/10), +31.44 (4/27), +31.80 (4/6), +27.33 (1/31) and +46.71 (12/26). The trend has been solidly positive. Previous other notable peaks were +30.98 (11/26/21), +36.90 (9/28), +27.75 ( 9/13) and +37.86 (7/15).
The 30 day average was falling at +4.62 after peaking at +21.57 (10/16) after supposedly peaking at +19.66 on 9/28. It was down to +6.89 on 7/29. It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was stable at +14.14 previously peaking at +15.61 on 10/25 and previously peaking at +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


Powerlines Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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