BUOY ROUNDUP
Thursday, November 28, 2024 :

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Thursday (11/28) in North and Central CA waves were shoulder high and lined up and clean and peeling with moderate offshore winds. Something to be thankful for. Protected breaks were occasionally waist to chest high and weak but with good form and clean with offshore winds. At Santa Cruz surf was occasionally waist high and weak and soft but clean and buried in tide. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist high on the sets and lined up with good form and clean with light offshore winds but waves were soft. Central Orange County had sets at head high and lined up with good form and clean coming from the south with the whole ocean pushing north up the beach. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had surf estimated at 2 ft overhead and lined up with good form and clean but buried in fog. North San Diego had sets at head high to 1 ft overhead and lined up when they came if not closed out and powerful and clean. Oahu's North Shore had sets to 1 ft overhead and lined up with good form but a bit warbled from wrap around tradewind windswell. The South Shore was flat to thigh high and clean. The East Shore was getting east windswell at chest high and chopped from moderate east-northeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (11/26) only minimal weak locally generated windswell was hitting California. Swell was starting to hit Hawaii from a gale that pushed east off Japan Fri (11/22) with 35 ft seas then faded while approaching the dateline Sat (11/23) with seas dropping from 28 ft. A broader gale is forecast developing on the dateline Tues-Wed (11/27) producing up to 42 ft seas targeting Hawaii well then fading in the Western Gulf Thurs (11/28) with seas fading from 37 ft targeting the US West Coast. And perhaps another gale is to develop on the dateline Sun-Tues (12/3) producing up to 31 ft seas aimed east. An Inactive MJO is in play but doesn't seem to be completely shutting down the swell production machine.

See all the details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Thursday (11/28) the jetstream was consolidated pushing east off Japan to the dateline with winds up to 190 kts over Japan dropping to 130 kts over the dateline digging out a trough just east of there supporting of gale formation. East of there the jet lifted north some then split heavily over the Eastern Gulf of Alaska with the north branch pushing inland over British Columbia and the southern branch over Baja. Over the next 72 hours starting Fri (11/29) the dateline trough is to ease east and weakening while losing definition while winds build wile pushing east of Japan to 180 kts reaching almost to the dateline and then on Sun (12/1) 160 kts extending flat east from Japan to a point almost 900 nmiles north of Hawaii but with no troughs evident yet. Beyond 72 hours starting Mon (12/2) winds to build to 190 kts on the dateline digging out a new trough north of HAwaii offering good support for gale formation and holding position into Tues (12/3) while winds slowly weaken still supporting gael formation. At this time the jet is to be fully consolidated across the North Pacific running east from Japan to the apex of the aforementioned trough then lifting northeast and moving inland over Central Canada. A new trough is to start building on Thurs (12/5) north of Hawaii and well carved out being fed by 120 kts winds offering more support for gale formation. An improving pattern is possible.

Surface Analysis
On Thursday (11/28) residual swell was fading in Hawaii from a gale previously west of the dateline (see West Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours swell from a gale that developed on the dateline is to reach Hawaii and bound for the US West Coast (see Dateline Gale below).

Perhaps another gale is to develop on the dateline Sat PM (11/30) with 35-40 kt northwest winds and seas building to 26 ft at 41N 180W aimed southeast. On Sun AM (12/1) with northwest winds to fade from 30 kts with seas 26 ft at 41.75N 175.75W aimed east. Fetch fading in the evening from 30 kts and seas fading from 25 ft at 41N 172W aimed east. Something to monitor. 3

West Pacific Gale
A gale started building Fri AM (11/22) half way from Japan to the dateline with 40 kts west winds and seas 35 ft at 37.5N 163E aimed east. In the evening fetch is to be fading while lifting east-northeast at 35-40 kts with seas 30 ft at 39N 170E aimed east. On Sat AM (11/23) residual fetch is to be fading from 35 kts with seas 28 ft at 40N 175.5E aimed east. Fetch gone after that.

Oahu: Dribbles on Thurs (11/28) fading from 3.1 ft @ 11-12 secs early (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 310-315 degrees

Dateline Gale
A gale developed just west of the dateline Tues PM (11/26) with 45-50 kt northwest winds over a building area and seas 26 ft at 34.25N 171.5E aimed southeast. Fetch tracked slowly east Wed AM (11/27) at 45-50 kts from the west and northwest moving over the dateline with seas building in coverage and up to 35 ft in a small pocket at 39.75N 179E aimed southeast targeting Hawaii well but mostly in the 29 ft range. In the evening fetch was more consolidated just east of the dateline at 45-50 kts aimed due east with seas 38 ft falling to 35 ft at 41N 177.75W aimed southeast both at Hawaii and the US West Coast. The Jason-3 satellite passed directly over the fetch at 0Z and reported a 15 reaching max average at 36.9 ft with one single reading to 42.1 ft. The model was slightly undercalling it. On Thurs AM (11/28) west fetch was fading while tracking east now over the far Western Gulf at 35+ kts over a broad area with seas 32 ft at 39.25N 171W aimed east. Fetch fading while easing east in the evening at 30-35 kts in the Western Gulf with seas fading from 26 ft at 40.75N 164.5W aimed east and southeast. Fetch fading Fri Am (11/29) from 30+ kts in the Northwestern Gulf with seas to 24 ft at 38.5N 167.75W aimed east. Swell possible for Hawaii and the US West Coast. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Fri (11/29) building to 7.3 ft @ 15-16 secs later (11.0 ft). Swell fading Sat AM (11/30) from 6.8 ft @ 14-15 secs early (10.0 ft). Residuals on Sun AM (12/1) fading from 5.2 ft @ 13 secs (6.5-7.0 ft). Dribbles on Mon AM (12/2) fading from 3.4 ft @ 11 secs (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 315-320 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (12/1) building to 4.1 ft @ 16-17 secs later (6.5 ft). Swell fading Mon AM (12/2) from 4.3 ft @ 15 secs (6.5 ft). Residuals on Tues AM (12/3) fading from 3.6 ft @ 13-14 secs (4.5-5.0 ft). Dribbles on Wed AM (12/4) fading from 2.8 ft @ 12 secs (3.0 ft). Swell DIrection: 290 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon AM (12/2) from peaking mid-day at 1.9 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0 ft) at exposed breaks. Swell fading Tues AM (12/3) from 1.7 ft @ 14 secs (2.5 ft). Swell DIrection: 296 degrees

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
No tropical weather systems of interest are being tracked.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Snow Levels for Tahoe (focused on Palisades Tahoe): Freeze level 10,000 on Thurs (11/28) and holding between 10,000-10,500 ft beyond before building to 12,000 ft on 12/5 and holding.

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

South Pacific

Swell from a gale previously over the Central South Pacific is tracking northeast (See South Central Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

But some sort of a complex gale is to develop southeast of New Zealand Fri-Sat (11/30) with seas building to 26 ft at 55S 176W aimed northeast.

Another is to follow in the same area late Sat (11/3) producing 28 ft seas at 52.25S 178.75W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

South Central Pacific Gale
A gale developed southeast of New Zealand on Mon AM (11/18) producing northwest winds 40-45 kts and seas building from 29 ft at 62.25S 174W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale tracked east-northeast with west winds 40-45 kts and seas 31 ft at 62S 154.5W aimed east-northeast. On Tues AM (11/19) southwest winds built to 40-45 kts over a solid area lifting east-northeast with seas 35 ft at 59.5S 139.5W aimed northeast. Fetch continued northeast in the evening now over the Southeast Pacific with fetch 35-40 kts but over a smaller area with seas 34 ft at 54.25S 129.5W aimed northeast. Fetch was fading Wed AM (11/20) in the Southeast Pacific from 30-35 kts from the south with seas 29 ft at 51.25S 119.75W aimed northeast barely in the CA swell window. In the evening fetch is to be fading but still 30-35 kts over a broad area moving east of the Southern CA swell window with seas 27 ft at 50.25S 111W aimed northeast at Chile and Peru. Fetch and seas of 25 ft to continue at 49S 106W into Fri AM (11/22) nestled up off Southern Chile. Southern hemi swell is possible.

Southern CA: Swell building on Thurs (11/28) to 2.5 ft @ 16-17 secs early (4.0 ft) then holding. Swell fading Fri (11/29) from 2.3 ft @ 15 secs early (3.5 ft). Residuals on Sat (11/30) fading from 1.8 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 188-190 degrees

North CA: Swell building on Thurs (11/28) to 2.3 ft @ 16-17 secs later (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell fading Fri (11/29) from 2.2 ft @ 15-16 secs early (3.5 ft). Residuals on Sat (11/30) fading from 1.7 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.02.5 ft). Swell Direction: 185-188 degrees

New Zealand Gale
Another gale developed pushing east under New Zealand Sun PM (11/24) with 40-45 kt southwest winds and seas 32 ft at 57.75S 165.25E aimed northeast. On Mon AM (11/25) southwest winds built in coverage at 40 kts with seas 35 ft at 55.75S 173E aimed northeast over a modest sized area. In the evening fetch continued tracking east-northeast at 40 kts with seas 34 ft at 53.25S 175.5W. Fetch was fading Tues AM (11/26) from 35 kts with seas 28 ft at 51.5S 164.75W aimed east-northeast. Fetch fading out in the evening with seas from previous fetch fading from 24 ft at 54S 153.75W aimed east. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Expect swell arriving on Mon (12/2) building to 1.4 ft @ 17 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell peaking Tues (12/3) at 1.7 ft @ 16 secs early (2.5 ft) and holding through the day. Swell fading some on Wed (12/4) at 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Residuals on Thurs (12/5) fading from 1.2 ft @ 13-14 secs early (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 195 degrees.

Southern CA: Expect swell arriving on Wed (12/4) at 1.3 ft @ 18 secs late (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell building steadily through the day Thurs (12/5) to 1.7 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell steady Fri (12/6) at 1.6 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5 ft). Swell fading Sat (12/7) from 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 208 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arriving on Wed (12/4) at 1.1 ft @ 18-19 secs late (2.0 ft). Swell building steadily through the day Thurs (12/5) to 1.6 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell steady Fri (12/6) at 2.1 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0 ft) but possibly being overrun by more northerly swell. Swell fading Sat (12/7) from 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 207 degrees

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours starting Sun PM (12/1) another gale is forecast on the dateline with 40 kt northwest winds and seas building. On Mon AM (12/2) northwest winds to build in coverage at 35-40 kts targeting Hawaii directly with seas building from 26 ft at 36N 178.5E aimed southeast. In the evening northwest winds to fade in coverage some 900 nmiles northwest of the Islands at 35 kts with seas 26 ft at 33.75N 175.25W aimed well at the Islands. On Tues AM (12/3) fetch is to be fading from 30 kts north of Hawaii with seas 26 ft at 35.5N 175.25W. In the evening fetch is to be gone with seas from previous fetch fading from 24 ft at 34.75N 163.75W aimed southeast. Something to monitor.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

La Nina Getting Traction
Models Suggest a Weak Event
9 downwelling warm water Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and 5 upwelling Kelvin Waves have traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific starting Feb 2024 and continue erupting over the East Equatorial Pacific. The atmosphere is moving to weakly La Nina mode and that will continue to build, but not expected to move beyond weak status.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected and continue building today.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but as of late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it take 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean is just now starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly into a La Nina pattern, it seems La Nina will not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025. And 2 months later Winter will be fading and any support for La Nina to build will be fading with it. Therefore, we can assume we are at best going to be in weak La Nina conditions as we get deep into the Winter of '24/'25. Conversely El Nino 23/24 faltered because of a persistent high pressure background state (in the Pacific) attributable to the PDO being in a long running cold state (which in turn mimics a modest La Nina background state). And there is no signs of that changing. The net result is that the atmosphere is stuck in a long running weak La Nina background state which in turn suppresses storm and swell development effectively setting up an atmosphere with no momentum towards either strong La Nina or strong El Nino. As a result the forecast for the coming winter season will reflect the atmospheres tendency to not actively support storm formation though not actively completely hindering it either.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (11/27) Water sensors are all up in the east but wind sensors are partially down in the far east. 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the far East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (11/28) Today strong east anomalies were filling the KWGA with the Inactive Phase of the MJO in control. The forecast suggests east anomalies holding at strong status while filling the KWGA and the whole of the equatorial Pacific through then end of the model run on 12/14. West anomalies are to build but remain locked west of the West Pacific. The Inactive Phase of the MJO is here.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (11/28) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm was gone, previously at 162E. The 29 degree isotherm was steady at 179E. The 28 deg isotherm line was backtracking at 173W from 170W. The 24 degree isotherm was pushing east the whole way across the Equatorial Pacific but shallow and nearly gone in the east. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +1 degs in the far West Pacific and +1 degree in the far East. A pool of cold anomalies at up to -2.0 degs were centered subsurface in 2 pockets in the the East Pacific at 140W and 110W and similar to weeks past. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 11/24 clarifies the situation more indicating cold anomalies retracting massively now reaching to the surface east of 135W (previously 167W) filling the entire East Equatorial Pacific subsurface thermocline. But, the density and volume of that cold water at depth was significantly less than weeks past all isolated east of the dateline and mainly east of 140W. The cool pool appears isolated and has no path to replenish it. Warm anomalies were filling the area west of the dateline and building. La Nina is here but there is no pathway for more cold water to move from the West Pacific eastward. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (11/24) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 cms from Ecuador to 165W with no -10 cms left. It appears the cool pool is fading for the moment. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (11/24) cold water started filling the Equatorial Pacific early March then retracted in June, rebuilt in coverage mid-July, then retracted in Aug, rebuilt in early Sept then quickly faded early Oct. Today the cool pool is fading fast while retracting east extending west to only 130W at 0 to -0.5 degs (previously 148W last week of Oct and 152W 3rd week of Oct) but with no cold center. A La Nina pattern is in play with 5 pulses so far but not strongly so. Warm water is limited in coverage west of the dateline and getting steadily warmer in the far West Pacific. The subsurface temperature forecast suggests that this is the last pulse of cold water forecast with warm water in the west blocking the development of any more cold water Kelvin Waves. Interesting. Is the subsurface cool pool dissolving?

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (11/27) The latest images depict a La Nina cool stream was filling the equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to a bit west of the dateline (165E) and not very strong but weakly consistent across that area. We are in La Nina, but not strongly.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (11/27): Cooling pockets are in place strongly over the equatorial Pacific from the Galapagos to 145W. It seems the Active Phase of the MJO suppressed east anomalies and development of cold upwelling on the equator but now the Inactive Phase is feeding strong east anomalies and upwelling.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/28) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were falling at -0.382 after peaking at +0.265 (11/22), starting the upward rise on 11/4-5 when anomalies were as low as any previous reading (near -1.4 degs), and hovered between -1.5 to -1.0 starting 9/22.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/28) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were falling at -0.762 after rising to -0.475 (11/22) and generally steady since 11/4, lower near -1.0 degs 9/21-10/28, and had been falling steadily in pulses since 6/30. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20 and but then rebuilt hovering near neutral 6/2 through 6/30.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were -0.1 week of 11/20. Previously temps were 0.0 (11/13), -0.3 (11/6), -0.2 (10/30), -0.5 (10/23), -0.3 (10/16), -0.5 degs (10/9), -0.3 (10/2), -0.2 degs (10/25), -0.5 degs (9/18 the first time solidly negative), -0.2 (9/11), -0.1 (9.4), -0.2 (8/28), 0.0 (8/21), -0.1 degrees (8/14) +0.0 (8/7) -0.2 degrees (7/31) and the first week negative in a year, +0.1 (week of 7/24), +0.2 (7/17), +0.3 (7/10 and 7/3), +0.4 ( 6/26) +0.3 (6/19) +0.0 (week of 6/12) +0.1 (6/5 & 5/29) +0.2 degs (5/15 and 5/22), +0.3 (5/8), +0.5 (5/1), +0.8 (4/24), +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data is -0.28 Oct., -0.25 Sept, -0.11 August, +0.05 July, +0.18 June, +0.24 May, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +1.52 Feb, +1.82 Jan 2024, +2.02 Dec (2023), +2.02 Nov, and +1.72 Oct (2023).
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.76 (ASO), -0.63 (JAS), -0.51 (JJA), -0.45 (MJJ), -0.26 (AMJ), +0.06 MAM, +0.50 FMA, +0.86 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.47 ft for NDJ 2023 (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.49 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb then down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and then +0.25 mid June falling to -0.15 degs in mid-Aug, -0.3 mid Sept and -0.35 mid-Oct and up to -0.2.0 in Nov. Temps did not fall anywhere near as fast or hard as forecast.
Forecast (11/21) - Temps to fall hard to -1.1 in Dec and -1.35 in Jan before rebounding to -0.30 in April 2025 and holding there into June building to -0.5 in July. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same steep drop with temps to -1.10 degs in Dec and -1.2 degs in Jan then redounding as described above. None of this is believable since the CFS model has been showing steep drops in temps since July 2024 and those drops never materialize. We are only moving to a weak La Nina.
IRI Consensus Plume: The November 19, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.475 degs today (unchanged from last month) and is the 6th month below neutral since El Nino developed. Temps to fall a little more down to -0.496 in Dec (3 month running mean) then then rising from there to +0.173 JJA (June July Aug). This is an upgrade with temps previously forecast down to -0.944 (per the April model run). The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.565 in Nov and the Statistic down to -0.367 in Nov. Both these projections are about like before but only suggest a bare minimal week La Nina.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (11/27) the Daily Index was positive at 21.06 today, and positive the last 18 days, negative 12 days before, positive the previous 10 days, negative the previous 4 days, positive 18 days previous, negative the previous 5 days, positive 4 days previous, negative the 11 days before that, positive 22 days previous. Over the past month it was a mix of positive and negative.
The 30 day average was rising some at +5.47 and has been weakly positive the last month. Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was rising some at 3.93 and still effectively neutral as it has been the last month. The first positive value was on 9/5 since the demise of El Nino. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
We are in ENSO neutral status.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling to -1.52 in March 2024, -2.12 April, -2.99 May, -3.16 in June, -2.99 July, -2.91 Aug and -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and now -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table