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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Sunday, November 24, 2019 11:17 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
3.5 - California & 3.5 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 11/25 thru Sun 12/1

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Another N. Dateline Swell Hitting HI
Weather Forecast for CA

On Sunday, November 24, 2019 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 2.9 ft @ 10.5 secs with swell 1.6 ft @ 9.4 secs from 208 degrees.
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 6.4 ft @ 18.2 secs with swell 2.3 ft @ 18.0 secs from 312 degrees.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.4 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 2.8 ft @ 15.2 secs from 261 degrees. Wind at the buoy was east 2-4 kts. Water temperature 64.0 degs. At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 5.1 ft @ 15.5 secs from 308 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.5 ft @ 15.0 secs from 249 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 2.1 ft @ 14.7 secs from 231 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 3.7 ft @ 14.1 secs from 252 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 9.5 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 7.2 ft @ 13.6 secs from 299 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was northwest at 10-12 kts. Water temp 52.3 degs (013), 56.3 degs (012) and 57.4 degs (042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

Current Conditions
On Sunday (11/24) in North and Central CA Dateline/Gulf swell was producing waves still at 3 ft overhead and reasonably clean but with a fair amount of wind lump in the water. Protected breaks were 1 ft overhead and clean and lined up but with a little warble in the water. At Santa Cruz surf was head high to 1 ft overhead on the sets and lined up and clean but with some lump in the water but not bad. In Southern California/Ventura the same swell was wrapping in producing waves at chest to head high and lined up and clean and with decent form. In North Orange Co waves were head high and lined up and clean but a little on the soft side. South Orange Country's best summertime breaks were chest high and clean and lined up and fun but soft. North San Diego had waves at chest to maybe head high and clean and lined up but soft. Hawaii's North Shore was getting new but small North Dateline swell with waves 2-3 ft overhead and lined up and energetic but not very consistent and reasonably clean. The South Shore was getting some waist high peaks and clean and soft. The East Shore was getting east windswell with waves head high and thigh to waist high and chopped from solid east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (11/24) in California swell as still hitting from a gale that pushed off Japan on Sun-Mon (11/18) with up to 33 ft seas aimed east and then redeveloped over the North Dateline Region Tues-Wed (11/20) with up to 34 ft seas aimed east. In Hawaii new swell was starting to show from yet another fragmented gale that developed over the Dateline/Western Gulf on Wed-Fri (11/22) with 32 & 38 ft seas aimed east. A cutoff low is to develop northwest of Hawaii Sun-Tues (11/26) with up to 30 ft seas aimed southeast. A local low is to develop along California on Wed (11/27) falling south producing 34 ft seas. And yet another storm is to develop in the Northwestern Gulf falling southeast Thurs-Sat (11/30) with up to 37 ft seas tracking south-southeast. So more swell is in the forecast. Finally, Fall has arrived!

See all the details below...


Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

On Sunday (11/24) the jetstream was weakly consolidated pushing east off a spread from Japan up to Kamchatka falling hard south on the dateline and fully consolidated there forming a trough but winds only 120 kts in it's apex offering some degree of support for gale development then lifting hard north and pushing consolidated through the Gulf with winds to 150 kts tracking into Washington. A backdoor trough extended off California supporting low pressure mainly off Southern CA with the jet then pushing onshore over Baja. Over the next 72 hours the trough on the dateline is to fall southeast and pinch off late Monday (11/25) no longer supporting gale development. At that time the jet is to be a bit jumbled with the general flow tracking east on the 50N latitude line but with a trough starting to form just off Washington on Tues (11/26) being fed by 160 kts winds and falling south with winds building to 170 kts on Thurs (11/28) just off Southern CA offering some support for local gale development. Beyond 72 hours starting Fri (11/29) winds in the jet are to build to 190 kts tracing east just south of the Central Aleutians and falling into a developing trough in the Northwestern Gulf with that trough pushing south to a point off North CA on Sat (11/3) with winds 130 kts offering some support for gale development. The trough is to become almost cutoff holding position on Sun (12/1). At that time then jet is to be pretty messy, pushing off Japan at 110 kts then ridging hard north on the dateline up into Alaska with winds 160 kts then falling south weakly and feeding the remnant trough off California before pushing inland over Southern CA.

Surface Analysis
On Sunday (11/24) swell from a gale that developed off Japan pushing to the dateline, then redeveloped while lifting northeast through the Northwestern Gulf was still hitting California (see Dateline/Northwest Gulf Gale below). And swell from a new gale that tracked from off Japan rapidly to the Northern Gulf was hitting Hawaii (see Another Dateline Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours a cutoff low is to start building just east of the dateline on Sun PM (11/24) producing a small area of 50 kt north winds and seas building from 29 ft at 40.5N 175.5W aimed south. On Mon AM (11/25) the gale is to fade and fall south with 40 kt north winds and seas 29 ft at 38N 176.5W aimed south. Fetch is to fade in the evening from 35 kts from the north with 26 ft seas over a small area falling south at 35N 175W. On Tues AM (11/26) 30 kt north winds are to be fading while falling south with 22 ft seas at 32N 177W aimed south and mostly bypassing Hawaii to the west. On Wed PM (11/27) new fetch is to build to the north at 30-35 kts with seas starting to develop. On Thurs AM (11/28) 40 kt north-northeast fetch is to build well north of Hawaii with 25 ft seas at 42.5N 171W aimed south. Fetch fading from 30 kts in the evening with seas fading from 23 ft at 41N 171W aimed south somewhat at Hawaii. Something to monitor.


Dateline/Northwest Gulf Gale
A gale started building off Japan on Sat PM (11/16) with 35 kt west winds and seas building from 20 ft at 40N 150E aimed east. On Sun AM (11/17) winds built to 45 kts from the northwest in one pocket and 45 kts in another with seas 29 ft at 38N 156E aimed east. In the evening the gale built in coverage filling the Northwest Pacific pushing east moving over the dateline with 40 kt northwest fetch lingering back halfway between the dateline and Japan with 31 ft seas at 39N 164.5E aimed southeast at Hawaii well. The gale held together decently Mon AM (11/18) covering the dateline region with 35-40 kt northwest winds over a solid area and a core to 45 kts from the northwest producing seas at 33 ft at 41N 172E aimed southeast. Fetch lifted north in the evening at 40-45 kts repositioned over the North Dateline region with residual fetch at 30-35 kts south of there with the largest area of seas at 33 ft at 42.5N 179W targeting Hawaii and the US West Coast. All fetch consolidated over the North Dateline region on Tues AM (11/19) at 40-45 kts with 34 ft seas at 47.5N 172W aimed east. The gale faded from there while tracking east just south of the Eastern Aleutians at 35 kts from the west producing 33 ft seas at 49N 164W aimed east at the US West Coast. The gale faded Wed AM (11/20) with 30 kt west winds and seas dropping from 29 ft at 50N 160W aimed east-northeast. The gale dissipated from there.

North CA: Swell to continue on Sun (11/24) at 7.3 ft @ 14-15 secs (10.5 ft). Swell Direction: 294 moving to 304 degrees

Southern CA: Swell fading on Sun (11/24) from 3.1 ft @ 15 secs (4.5 ft). Swell fading Mon (11/25) fading from 2.6 ft @ 14 secs (3.5 ft) and being overridden by local windswell. Swell Direction: 298-308 degrees


Another Dateline Gale
Another gale started pushing off North Japan on Tues PM (11/19) producing a fragmented area of 35-40 kt west winds. On Wed AM (11/20) west winds built at 35-40+ kts over a broad area streaming off North Japan reaching east to the dateline with seas building to 31 ft at 41.5N 155E aimed east and another pocket at 24 ft at 42.5N 178E aimed east. In the evening a broad area of 35-40 kt west winds were tracking east pushing over the dateline with seas building to 32 ft at 41N 163.5E aimed east and another pocket at 26 ft at 43N 174W aimed east with 24 ft seas connecting them and extending up into the Northwestern Gulf. On Thurs AM (11/21) 30-35 kt west fetch was filling almost the entire North Central Pacific centered at 45N with one pocket to 45 kts just east of the dateline with 31 ft seas at 42.5N 171E aimed east and a small er area of 37 ft seas at 47N 177.5W aimed east with 26+ ft seas continuous from 165E east to 163W roughly on the 45N latitude line (1353 nmiles in width). In the evening fetch was fading in coverage while rapidly tracking northeast at 45 kts mainly in the Northwestern Gulf with seas 35 ft in one small area at 49.5N 165W and another at 27 ft back at 43N 178E and 22+ ft seas connecting the two. Fetch raced east on Fri AM (11/22) repositioned in the Northern Gulf at 40 kts with 35 ft seas at 52.5N 153.5 aimed east. Fetch and seas faded out in the evening.

Hawaii: Swell building some overnight and peaking Sun AM (11/24) at 5.3 ft @ 16-17 secs (8.5 ft). Swell fading on Mon AM (11/25) from 3.9 ft @ 14-15 secs (5.5 ft). Dribbles fading on Tues AM (11/26) from 2.6 ft @ 12-13 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 315 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon afternoon (11/25) building to 2.8 ft @ 17-18 secs (5.0 ft) and buried in local windswell. Swell building mid-Tues (11/26) at 7.3 ft @ 15 secs (10 ft) with copious local windswell still an issue. More and larger windswell to follow.



Windswell Outlook
On Sun (11/24) high pressure is to hold in the Central Gulf with north winds building at 20 kts along the North CA coast early and up to 25 kts later and 10 kts early along the Central Coast pushing 15 kts in the afternoon over Pt Conception and starting to get some traction generating building north windswell. For Hawaii east trades are to hold at 15-20 kts solid up to 1500 nmiles east of the Islands producing continued east windswell along exposed east facing shores. On Mon (11/25) north winds are to be building at 35 kts over all of North and Central CA generating building north windswell. For Hawaii east trades are to be rock solid at 20 kts from off California east over the Islands generating solid east windswell. On Tues (11/26) along the California Coast north winds are to be 20-25 kts from southern North CA and over all of Central CA producing windswell fading late afternoon then building to 60+ kts off North CA off Cape Mendocino late afternoon associated with a building storm there. Windswell to prevail. For Hawaii east fetch at 15-20 kts is to continue 1800 + nmiles east of the Hawaiian Islands continuing to produce windswell. Wed (11/27) north winds at 30+ kts are forecast for North CA early fading to 15 kts late and 20 kts early for Central CA fading to 15 kts later producing windswell. East fetch is to be fading from 15 kts up to 1200 nmiles east of the Hawaiian Islands early producing windswell there but that fetch fading in coverage later.

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height


Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Sunday (11/24) north winds are forecast at 10 kts early for North CA building to 15-20 kts later and 10 kts from the north for Central CA early building to 15 kts later near Pt Conception. Monday (11/25) the wind machine kicks back in with north winds 35 kts for all of North and Central CA and building through the day. Tues (11/26) north winds are forecast at 20-25 kts early for all of North and Central CA fading some later. Northwest winds building dramatically for Cape Mendocino late afternoon driven by low pressure along the North CA coast which is to start producing rain for all of North and Central CA overnight and moderate to heavy snow for the Sierra mainly from Yosemite northward. On Wed (11/27) north winds are forecast at 30 kts early for North CA and 25 kts for Central CA early fading to 15 kts later everywhere. Rain forecast for all of North and Central CA early moving into Southern CA mid-day. Heavy snow for the Sierra all mainly early but continuing solid through the day into late evening. Thurs (11/28) a light north flow is forecast all day. Light rain early for mainly Central CA down into Southern CA fading in Central CA later. Snow fading from the Southern Sierra early. Fri (11/29) north winds are forecast at 10 kts early fading to calm later. Light rain for mainly Southern CA early. Sat (11/30) a light offshore flow is forecast turning southeast 10-15 kts later. Sun (12/1) southeast winds are forecast at 30 kts early. Rain developing for Central CA up into North CA mid-day. Total snow accumulation for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl and Kirkwood at 30-34 inches and 21 inches down into Bear Mountain in Southern CA.

Snow Models: (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!


South Pacific

Surface Analysis
No swell producing fetch is occurring.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.


South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height




Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours the model suggest another gale developing in the far Eastern Gulf off North CA on Tuesday PM (11/26) producing 60 kt north winds just off the CA-OR border and seas building from 38 ft at 41.5N 127.5W. On Wed AM (11/27) then storm is to have moved onshore over North CA with a broad area 30-35 kt north winds and 27 ft seas at 37.5 125.5W aimed south. Fetch fading off North CA in the evening from 30 kts with 19 ft seas aimed south at 34N 124W. The gale to dissipate from there. Something to monitor.

Also on Wed PM (11/27) a new storm is to start building in the Northwestern Gulf producing 50 kt north winds with seas building to 24 ft at 46N 167W aimed south. On Thurs AM (11/28) the storm is to still be producing 50 kt northwest winds tracking slowly east with seas building to 33 ft at 43.5N 163W aimed southeast. In the evening 50 kt northwest winds to hold with 36 ft seas at 45N 161W aimed southeast. On Fri AM (11/29) 45 kt northwest winds to be holding with 34 ft seas at 44N 155.5W aimed southeast. In the evening the gall is to be tracking southeast with 40 kt north west winds and seas 31 ft at 41N 151.5N. On Sat AM (11/30) the gale is to be falling southeast with northwest winds 40 kts and seas 27 ft at 37.5N 148W aimed southeast. In the evening the gael is to be fading with 35 kt northwest winds and seas 25 ft at 35N 145W aimed southeast. The gael is to fade from there.

Windswell Outlook
Thurs (11/28) for North and Central CA north winds are to be 20 kts off the coast but north at 10 nearshore all day resulting in more windswell. For Hawaii east fetch at 15 kts is to continue east of Hawaii targeting only the Big Island early producing more windswell. Fri (11/29) no windswell is forecast for California or Hawaii. Sat (11/30) south winds are to be building just off California with south windswell taking control from Pt Reyes northward. For Hawaii northeast winds to be 20 kts only locally offering northeast windswell. Sun (12/1) south winds to continue for North and Central California at 30 kts producing windswell. Northeast fetch for Hawaii 15 kts resulting in more windswell there.


South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.



MJO/ENSO Forecast


Active MJO Miraculously Rebuilding - Kelvin Wave #6 Developing

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: A double dip La Nina was in control through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. El Nino was dead.

Fall/Winter 2019/2020 = 5.0/4.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It is assumed the PDO has moved to the warm phase and that a weak borderline El Nino from 2018 is fading out, but not yet completely gone, especially in the atmosphere. Likewise it looks like a La Nina ocean temperature pattern is developing in the equatorial East Pacific, with cooler than normal waters tracking west on the equator. We assumed El Nino like momentum will hold for a while in the atmosphere will take a while to sense that the ocean temperature pattern has changed. But once it does, a turn towards a La Nina like atmospheric pattern will start to develop. that transition is expected in the late Nov-early Dec timeframe. Even so, moderation from the PDO might prevent La Nina from fully developing. Given all that, there is decent probability for a normal start to the Fall surf season (in the Northern Hemisphere) meaning a normal amount of number of storm days and storm intensity, resulting in a normal levels of swell, with normal duration and normal period. But by mid-Dec 2019, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start fading and as a result, swell production should fade slightly as well. This pattern is expected to hold through April 2020.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (11/23) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific fading over the Central Pacific then turning hard westerly over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral weak easterly over the far East equatorial Pacific turning neutral over the Central Pacific and then turning hard westerly over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (11/24) westerly anomalies were unexpectedly moderate to strong filling the KWGA today. The forecast now calls for west anomalies holding moderately and filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 11/31. This is an unexpected improvement.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (11/23) A weak Inactive MJO pattern was fading over the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates the Inactive Phase is to be gone at day 5 with a weak Inactive Phase developing over the Maritime continent moving into the western KWGA. The Active Phase is to be solid in the KWGA at day 10 then moving to the dateline at day 15. The dynamic model is having issues today.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (11/24) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over the Indian Ocean today and is to migrate steadily east and into the Maritime Continent to West Pacific region at day 15. The GEFS model is not available today.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model): (11/24) This model depicts a solid Active MJO over the KWGA today. This Active Pattern is to track east steadily pushing into the Central America on 12/24 and then gone. A weak Inactive Phase is to start building in the West Pacific 12/14 tracking east while holding strength pushing into Central America at the end of the model run on 1/3.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/23) This model depicts the Active Phase was holding strong in the core of the KWGA today with moderate west anomalies filling the KWGA and holding steady. West anomalies and the Active Phase of the MJO are to hold at moderate to strong strength in the core of the KWGA and filling it through 12/5 and then tracking east and out of the KWGA by 12/8. Beyond the Inactive Phase of the MJO is to start building into the far West KWGA starting 12/4 and filling the KWGA on 12/8 holding through the end of the model run on 12/21 but steadily moving east.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/24) This model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO was past its peak over the KWGA but with west anomalies still solidly in control. The Active Phase is to track through and out of the KWGA by 11/25 but with west anomalies forecast holding in the in the KWGA through 12/4. The Inactive Phase is supposedly developing 11/24 in the west and building east holding through 1/5 with east anomalies building in the KWGA 12/6-12/18 then fading with west anomalies redeveloping 12/19. Another modest Active Phase is to develop tracking east through the KWGA 1/3-2/12 with weak west anomalies holding through the period. Beyond a weak Inactive MJO pattern is forecast 2/10 through the end of the model run on 2/21. Weak west anomalies are forecast holding during that period. The low pass filter indicates a low pressure bias with 2 contour lines in control of the KWGA centered on the dateline reaching east to the California coast. The second contour line is to hold for the foreseeable future after previous indicating it would fade. A high pressure bias built in the Indian Ocean starting 10/22 and is to hold through the end of the model run through getting slightly weaker at the end of the run. A strong area of east anomalies in the Indian Ocean is now forecast to dissipate on 1/25.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (11/24) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 deg isotherm was steady at 179E while the 29 deg isotherm was stable today at 170W. The 28 deg isotherm line was backtracking at 160W today. The 24 deg isotherm was stable pushing into 95W today. Anomaly wise, gentle warm anomalies are filling the entire Pacific with an interesting pocket at +2 degs building from the Maritime Continent moving east from 170W indicative of a new Kevin Wave (#6) building today. A broader area of warm water at +3 degs was centered at 107W pushing into Ecuador indicative of Kelvin Wave #5 pushing east there. Warm water was filling the entire equatorial subsurface Pacific from 110 meters upwards. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 11/19 indicates warm water from Westerly Wind Burst #5 had formed a Kelvin Wave extending from 150E under the Dateline east and is now starting to impact Ecuador with temps +2-3 degs over the whole area with a small pocket of cool anomalies previously just off Ecuador gone now. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (11/19) A modest area of positive anomalies were present on the equator between 130W east to Ecuador at +5 cms. A new pocket of +5 cms anomalies has developed back at 135E-178E. Negative anomalies were gone along Peru. A mostly neutral sea height pattern is setting up with a a few pockets biased positive.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (11/23) The latest images ( 1.2 3.4 ) indicate cooling anomalies were gone along the immediate coast of Peru with warming building there up into Ecuador with a stream of modest warm anomalies extending west on the equator over the Galapagos out to the dateline. Weak cool anomalies were south of the equator off Peru but fading fast. Weak warm anomalies were on and north of the equator building while tracking west to the dateline.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (11/23): Today a massive area of warming was developing along Chile and Peru steaming west off Ecuador on the equator out to 105W The short term trend is now towards warming in the far East South Pacific. This is a step in the right direction.
Hi-res Overview: (11/23) A weak fading area of cool anomalies is trying to hold on south of the equator and off Peru reaching out to 125W. Otherwise gentle warming is pushing west on the equator, strongest from 100W and points west of there on the equator and south to 5S. Warmer than normal water was north of the equator from the remnants of El Nino, but mostly gone south of the equator. Water temps appear to be stable mildly favoring El Nino.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/24) Today's temps were rising some at +0.243 after previously dropping down to -1.921 degs on 10/10, that after falling to -1.8 degs on 9/15, then up to +0.030 on 10/2. Temps have been pretty consistently negative since June 1.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(11/24) Temps were falling today at +0.251. Temps previously rose on 11/14 to +0.509 degs, and that after previously bottoming out on 8/28 at -0.510 degs and 9/15 at -0.60 degs. The trend has been steadily generally upwards since Sept.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (11/24) Actual's indicate a cooling trend set up late summer with temps -0.2 degs in mid-Sept then rising to +0.25 degs in early Oct rising to +0.4 degs in early Nov. The forecast has temps fading to maybe +0.10 in Feb and then forecast rising some to 0.2 degs in May, then fading to -0.25 in late July. According to this model a neutral sea surface temperature pattern biased slightly warm is forecast for the mid-term, possibly turning neutral after that.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Oct 2019 Plume depicts temps are at +0.25 degs, and are to hold in the +0.25 deg range into May 2020, then fading slightly to +0.15 in June 2020. See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (11/24): The daily index was negative today at -10.88 and has been mostly negative the last 32 days. The 30 day average was negative and steady at -9.51. The 90 day average was steady at -9.36, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was developing.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): Sept +1.13, August +0.64, July +0.75, June -0.32, May +1.10, April +0.30, March +1.0, Feb +1.29, Jan +0.193. This index has been steadily positive but still indicates mostly ENSO neutral conditions (not El Nino).

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan -0.23, Feb -0.55 This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

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