Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 3.0 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 2.0 ft @ 7.4 secs from 185 degrees. Water temp 78.1 (Barbers Pt), 77.9 (Pearl Harbor 233), 80.4 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 4.9 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 3.2 ft @ 13.0 secs from 46 degrees. Water temp 78.3 degs
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 4.7 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 3.8 ft @ 11.8 secs from 124 degrees. Water temp 78.6 degs
Buoy 46069 (S. Santa Rose Is): Seas were 8.3 ft @ 12.8 secs with swell 6.5 ft @ 12.7 secs from 301 degrees. Wind northwest at 6-10 kts. Water temperature 55.2 degs, 56.7 (Harvest 071), 58.5 (Topanga 103), 57.6 (Long Beach 215), 59.5 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 58.5 (Del Mar 153), 60.3 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 6.6 ft @ 13.3 secs from 305 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 2.5 ft @ 11.6 secs from 285 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.0 ft @ 10.2 secs from 258 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 1.2 ft @ 16.1 secs from 195 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.2 ft @ 16.0 secs from 188 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.5 ft @ 13.3 secs from 266 degrees. Water temperature was 57.0 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 10.6 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 4.9 ft @ 11.7 secs from 301 degrees. Wind south-south 19-27 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and SSE 23-29 kt (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and SE at 16 kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 57.9 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 52.7 (San Francisco 46026), NA (SF Bar 142), 53.2 (Half Moon Bay 1801583), 55.4 (Monterey Bay 46092) and 53.2 (Aptos Creek 275).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Friday (11/22) in North and Central CA waves were chest to maybe head high and mushed and warbled and torn apart by strong south winds and unrideable. Protected breaks had sets at waist to nearly chest high and lined up with decent form but soft and with brisk southeast sideshore winds on it. At Santa Cruz surf was chest to head high and lined up and warbled from moderate south wind, and not really rideable. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist to maybe chest high on the sets and lined up with good form and real clean but a little on the soft side. Central Orange County had sets at chest to shoulder high and lined up with good form and real clean but a little soft. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had some waist high sets and soft and warbled but with clean surface conditions. North San Diego had sets at waist high or so and lined up and real clean but soft. Oahu's North Shore had sets at shoulder high at top spots and somewhat lined up and clean but soft and a little warbled but not bad. The South Shore was near flat and clean. The East Shore was getting east windswell at chest high and a bit warbled but not chopped with light east-southeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Friday (11/22) swell was fading in California originating from a stronger gale that developed Tues-Wed (11/20) just off Washington with up to 34 ft seas targeting mainly the Pacific Northwest. A cutoff low developed Wed-Thurs (11/21) northwest of Hawaii producing 23 ft seas targeting the Islands well. And another gale pushed east off Japan Fri (11/22) with 35 ft seas and is to fade approaching the dateline Sat (11/23) with seas fading from 28 ft. Maybe something more for Hawaii. And a broader gale remains forecast developing on the dateline Tues-Wed (11/27) producing up to 35 ft seas targeting Hawaii well then fading in the Western Gulf Thurs (11/28) with seas fading from 28 ft targeting the US West Coast. Looking at the broader picture the MJO has turned Inactive which as expected is to reduce the potential for storm development for the next few weeks.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Friday (11/22) the jetstream was building while pushing off Japan with winds 130-140 kts then fading and fractured from the dateline eastward except with a backdoor trough still holding off the US West Coast with 130-140 kts winds pushing into North California creating weather there. Over the next 72 hours that trough is to slowly push inland over North and Central CA into early Mon (11/25) creating weather there. Otherwise the jet is to be well consolidated pushing off Japan to the dateline with winds 140 kts but with no troughs forecast yet and winds continuing at less than 90 kts on the 35N latitude line into Central CA. Beyond 72 hours starting Tues (11/26) a trough is forecast developing west of the dateline behind fed by 120 kts winds falling off the Kuril Islands and 160 kts winds over the dateline starting to supporting gale formation. A decent trough is to be in place over the dateline easing east Wed-Thurs (11/27) being fed by 130-140 kts winds continuing to offer good support for gale formation. By Fri (11/29) the jet is to be consolidated still running east on the 35N latitude line from Japan to a point north of Hawaii then ridging north over the Gulf splitting off Vancouver Islands with a portion of the jet running inland over Canada and then rest falling hard south then turning east off Baja leaving clear air over the US West Coast and not weather there. Not a bad setup.

Surface Analysis
On Friday (11/22) remnant energy from a strong gale circulating off the Pacific Northwest Coast was still producing limited swell and weather along the US West Coast (see Northwest US Gale below).

Also swell was propagating towards Hawaii from a small gale previously west of the dateline (see 1st Dateline Gale below).

And swell from another small gael is likely bound for Hawaii from a gale developing west of the dateline (see West Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours starting Fri AM (11/22) remnants of the stronger gale still off the Pacific Northwest were producing northwest winds at 30-35 kts targeting North CA and seas 16 ft off Cape Mendocino producing raw local windswell. A new circulation was developing well off Washington falling southeast with 30-35 kts northwest winds and 20 ft seas at 47N 142W falling southeast. In the evening the main gael center is to be lifting north impacting and just off Vancouver Island producing 25 ft seas impacting that area (but nothing for California) while the secondary circulation falls southeast with 30-35 kts northwest winds and seas 20 ft over a tiny area at 43.5N 142W aimed south. On Sat AM (11/23) the main gale is to be mostly gone with remnants over Vancouver Island and the secondary center well off Cape Mendocino with 30-35 kts northwest winds and seas just off shore developing while lifting north off North California now repositioned off Central Oregon with west winds 45 kts and seas fading from 20 ft at 40N 140W aimed southeast. In the evening the secondary gale is to be 700 nmiles west of San Francisco with 30 kts northwest winds and seas 18 ft at 38N 134W aimed east. 25 kts winds are to be just off San Francisco Sun AM (11/24) impacting the coast through the day. Raw jumbled local windswell is the only expected result. See QuikCASTs for details.

1st Dateline Gale
On Wed AM (11/20) a small gale developed just west of the dateline with 35-40 kt northwest winds and seas 23 ft at 40N 169E aimed southeast. In the evening the gale eased east with 35+ kt northwest winds and seas 23 ft at 41N 172E targeting Hawaii. On Thurs AM (11/21) northwest winds faded to 35 kts but over a larger area with seas 21 ft at 41N 175E aimed southeast. Fetch faded in the evening 1000 nmiles northwest of Hawaii with northwest winds 30 kts and seas 18 ft at 38N 177W targeting Hawaii well. from the original fetch. On Fri AM (11/22) northwest winds were 30 kts with seas less than 17 ft at 38N 171W aimed southeast. Fetch fading out from there. Maybe some small swell to result for Hawaii.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Sun (11/24) building to 4.0 ft @ 12-13 secs later (5.0 ft). Swell fading Mon (11/25) from 3.8 ft @ 12 secs early (4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 315-320 degrees

West Pacific Gale
A gale started building Fri AM (11/22) half way from Japan to the dateline with 40 kts west winds and seas 35 ft at 37.5N 163E aimed east. In the evening fetch is to be fading while lifting east-northeast at 35-40 kts with seas 30 ft at 39N 170E aimed east. On Sat AM (11/23) residual fetch is to be fading from 35 kts with seas 28 ft at 40N 175.5E aimed east. Fetch gone after that.

Oahu: Rough data suggests swell arrival on Tues AM (11/26) building to 2.8 ft @ 14 secs mid-day (4.0 ft). swell fading Wed AM (11/27) from 3.3 ft @ 12 secs early (3.5-4.0 ft) Swell Direction: 310-315 degrees

Northwest US Gale
A stronger gale developed in the Eastern Gulf just off Cape Mendocino on Tues AM (11/19) with 45 kt west winds and seas building fast from 19 ft at 40.5N 140W targeting California well (288 NCal). Fetch was building fast in the evening while lifting northeast with 50-55 kt west and south winds and seas 29 ft at 45.5N 131W just off North Oregon aimed east and southeast and shadowed relative to North CA but with 23 ft seas at 41N 133W aimed east (297 degs NCal). On Wed AM (11/20) the core of the low eased west some with northwest fetch building to 45 kts off Oregon producing 29 ft seas targeting mainly north of California but with 25 ft seas at 42.5N 131W in the NCal swell window (310 degrees) and a small fetch of northeast winds building at 40-45 kts in the north quadrant of the storm producing 29 ft seas at 48.5N 134W targeting Hawaii but likely over too small an area and too far away to result in meaningful swell for the Islands. Fetch fading while holding stationary in the evening mostly at 35-40 kts with 25 ft seas off Washington aimed west and of no interest. This system is to be gone after that from a swell production standpoint but is to become absorbed in a broader low circulating off the IS West Coast beyond. Something to monitor.

North CA: Residuals on Fri (11/22) fading from 3.4 ft @ 12 secs (4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 288 degrees moving to 310 degrees

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Sat AM (11/23) pressure rebuilds some with west winds 10-15 kts for North CA early and northwest 5 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon southwest winds to be 10 kts for Cape Mendocino and 5 kts for the rest of North CA and northwest 5 kts for Central CA. Rain for all of North and Central CA early and heavy snow for the entire Sierra with rain clearing through the day and snow fading in the evening.
Sun AM (11/24) weak low pressure and the final front is to be just off North CA with south winds 20 kts for Cape Mendocino and south 10-15 kts for the rest of North CA early and south winds 5-10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon the front is to be inland with southwest winds 10-15 kts for North CA and south 10 kts for Central CA. Clear early but rain developing mainly for North CA mid-day continuing through the evening. Maybe some snow for Tahoe late evening.
Mon AM (11/25) south winds to be 15-20 kts for Cape Mendocino and south winds 5-10 kts for the rest of North CA and south winds 5-10 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon southwest winds are to be 10-15 kts for North CA and south winds 15 kts for Central CA. Rain for North CA early building over Central CA too in the afternoon. Snow for the Sierra late evening.
Tues AM (11/26) a weak pressure pattern sets up with northwest winds 5 kts for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon north winds set up at 5-10 kts for North and Central CA. Rain clearing for North and Central CA early, Maybe rain developing for Big Sur area in the afternoon. Snow for the Sierra all day and evening.
Wed AM (11/27) high pressure takes over the offshore Pacific Northwest with northeast winds 10 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northeast winds build at 10 kts solid for North and Central CA. Rain limited to Big Sur southward through the day. Some snow for the Central and Southern Sierra.
Thurs AM (11/28) northeast winds hold at 10 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northeast winds build to 10-15 kts for North CA but south winds 15 kts for Central CA. Rain for all of Central CA early building up to Pt Arena later.
Fri AM (11/29) weak low pressure sets up off the CA coast with south winds 10-15 kts for most of the coast expect northeast winds 10-15 kts for Cape Mendocino early. Winds continue east at 10 kts for Cape Mendocino but southeast 10 kts for the rest of North Ca and all of Central CA. Rain for all of North and Central CA fading later in the day.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at a 51, 50, 62, and 42 inches with dumps on Fri-Sat (11/23) and Tues (11/26).

Snow Levels for Tahoe (focused on Palisades Tahoe): Freeze level falling to 5,500 ft on late Fri (11/22) and holding till early Wed (11/27), rising from 6,200 ft to 8,500 ft on Thurs (11/28) and holding there into 12/1.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
Swell from a gale previously over the Central South Pacific is tracking northeast (See South Central Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

South Central Pacific Gale
A gale developed southeast of New Zealand on Mon AM (11/18) producing northwest winds 40-45 kts and seas building from 29 ft at 62.25S 174W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale tracked east-northeast with west winds 40-45 kts and seas 31 ft at 62S 154.5W aimed east-northeast. On Tues AM (11/19) southwest winds built to 40-45 kts over a solid area lifting east-northeast with seas 35 ft at 59.5S 139.5W aimed northeast. Fetch continued northeast in the evening now over the Southeast Pacific with fetch 35-40 kts but over a smaller area with seas 34 ft at 54.25S 129.5W aimed northeast. Fetch was fading Wed AM (11/20) in the Southeast Pacific from 30-35 kts from the south with seas 29 ft at 51.25S 119.75W aimed northeast barely in the CA swell window. In the evening fetch is to be fading but still 30-35 kts over a broad area moving east of the Southern CA swell window with seas 27 ft at 50.25S 111W aimed northeast at Chile and Peru. Fetch and seas of 25 ft to continue at 49S 106W into Fri AM (11/22) nestled up off Southern Chile. Southern hemi swell is possible.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (11/27) building to 2.3 ft @ 17-18 secs later (4.0 ft). Swell building on Thurs (11/28) to 2.5 ft @ 16-17 secs early (4.0 ft) then holding. Swell fading Fri (11/29) from 2.3 ft @ 15 secs early (3.5 ft). Residuals on Sat (11/30) fading from 1.8 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 188-190 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (11/27) building to 2.0 ft @ 19 secs late (3.5 ft). Swell building on Thurs (11/28) to 2.3 ft @ 16-17 secs later (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell fading Fri (11/29) from 2.2 ft @ 15-16 secs early (3.5 ft). Residuals on Sat (11/30) fading from 1.7 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.02.5 ft). Swell Direction: 185-188 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours a gale is forecast developing just west of the dateline Tues PM (11/26) with 40-45 kt northwest winds over a building area and seas 26 ft at 39N 174.5E aimed southeast. Fetch is to track east Wed AM (11/27) at 45-50 kts from the northwest moving over the dateline with seas 33 ft at 37.25N 178W aimed southwest targeting Hawaii well. In the evening fetch is to be fading while expanding at 35-40 kts with seas 31 ft at 37N 172W aimed southeast both at Hawaii and the US West Coast. On Thurs AM (11/28) fetch is to hold in the far Western Gulf at 30-35 kts over a broad area with seas 29 ft at 41.75N 167W aimed east. Fetch fading while easing east in the evening at 30 kts with seas fading from 22 ft at 41N 163W aimed east and southeast. Swell possible for Hawaii and the US West Coast. Something to monitor.

Beyond 72 hours perhaps a gale is to develop while pushing east under New Zealand starting Sun PM (11/24) with 40 kts southwest winds and seas 29 ft at 59.25S 163.5E aimed northeast. On Mon AM (11/25) southwest winds to build to 45 kts with seas 34 ft at 56S 171.75E aimed northeast. In the evening fetch continues tracking east-northeast at 40-45 kts with seas 37 ft at 54S 178W. Fetch fading Tues AM (11/26) from 35-40 kts with seas 35 ft at 52.25S 168.5W aimed east-northeast. Fetch fading in the evening from 35 kts with seas fading from 29 ft at 52S 156.25W aimed east. Something to monitor.

La Nina Getting Traction
Models Suggest a Weak Event
9 downwelling warm water Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and 5 upwelling Kelvin Waves have traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific starting Feb 2024 and continue erupting over the East Equatorial Pacific. The atmosphere is moving to weakly La Nina mode and that will continue to build, but not expected to move beyond weak status.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected and continue building today.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but as of late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it take 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean is just now starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly into a La Nina pattern, it seems La Nina will not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025. And 2 months later Winter will be fading and any support for La Nina to build will be fading with it. Therefore, we can assume we are at best going to be in weak La Nina conditions as we get deep into the Winter of '24/'25. Conversely El Nino 23/24 faltered because of a persistent high pressure background state (in the Pacific) attributable to the PDO being in a long running cold state (which in turn mimics a modest La Nina background state). And there is no signs of that changing. The net result is that the atmosphere is stuck in a long running weak La Nina background state which in turn suppresses storm and swell development effectively setting up an atmosphere with no momentum towards either strong La Nina or strong El Nino. As a result the forecast for the coming winter season will reflect the atmospheres tendency to not actively support storm formation though not actively completely hindering it either.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (11/21) Water sensors are all up in the east but wind sensors are partially down in the far east. 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. Anomalies were light west over the far East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and modest east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (11/22) Today moderate plus east anomalies were filling the KWGA with the Inactive Phase of the MJO in control there. The forecast suggests east anomalies to hold building to strong status while filling the KWGA 11/23 through 11/30, then collapsing with weak east anomalies through 12/8 at the end of the model run limited to the dateline with west anomalies trying to push into the far West Pacific starting 12/1. The Inactive Phase of the MJO is here for a bit.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (11/21) Currently a moderate Inactive MJO pattern (dry air) was over the KWGA. The statistic model depicts the Inactive MJO holding while weakening over the KWGA on day 5 of the model run tracking east while fading with the Active MJO moving into the West KWGA on day 10 and then filling it on day 15 at strong status. The dynamic model depicts effectively the same thing.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (11/22) - The models depict the Active Phase was modest over the Central Indian Ocean. The statistic model has it moving slowly east to the Central Maritime Continent over the next 2 weeks and split between very weak and modest. The dynamic model depicts it moving to the Central Maritime Continent fading to very weak status.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (11/22) This model depicts the Inactive MJO (dry air) moving east over the KWGA and is to be east of it on 11/27 with an Active signal (wet air) setting up behind controlling the KWGA 12/2 through 12/12. A stronger Inactive signal (dry air) is forecast moving east over the KWGA 12/22 through the end of the model run on 1/1/25.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/21) Today east anomalies were in control of the KWGA at moderate to strong strength with Inactive MJO contours filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates the east anomalies building to strong status 11/23-11/29 with Inactive MJO contours holding till 12/3. But east anomalies are to persist through the end of the model run 12/19 over the dateline. The Active Phase is to be building with west anomalies and contours pushing into the West KWGA 12/3 and building east to 145E 12/5 but making it not further east through the end of the model run.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/22) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Inactive Phase of the MJO was in control of the KWGA with east anomalies filling it. The Inactive Phase is to fill the KWGA through 12/10 with strong east anomalies 11/22-11/28 and east anomalies filling the KWGA to 12/15. The Active Phase is to follow 11/28-1/25/25 with west anomalies filling most of the KWGA during that window other than the east anomalies mentioned above. A weak Inactive Phase to follow 1/1/25 through the end of the model run on 2/19 with weak west anomalies holding in the KWGA through the end of the model run in the KWGA. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean (starting 4/28) with one contour and is to hold through the end of the model run. The high pressure bias started to develop in the Pacific on the dateline 5/4-8/3, collapsed to nothing, then returned over the dateline 11/16 with 1 contour line and is forecast to develop a second contour 12/5 holding through 2/1/25. This suggests a stronger La Nina pattern developing from now forward than previously forecast. This is not as hoped for.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (11/22) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm was reaching east to 167E. The 29 degree isotherm was steady at 180W. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 169W. The 24 degree isotherm was pushing east the whole way across the Equatorial Pacific but shallow and nearly gone in the east. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +1 degs in the far West Pacific and +1 degree in the far East. A pool of cold anomalies at up to -2.0 degs were centered subsurface in 2 pockets in the the East Pacific at 143W and 105W and similar to weeks past. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 11/14 clarifies the situation more indicating cold anomalies reaching to the surface east of 165W filling the entire East Equatorial Pacific thermocline. But, the density and volume of that cold water was significantly less than weeks past all isolated east of the dateline and mainly east of 140W. The cool pool appears isolated and has no path to replenish it. Warm anomalies were filling the area west of the dateline and building. La Nina is here but there is no pathway for more cold water to move from the West Pacific eastward. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (11/14) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 cms from Ecuador to 165W with -10 cms in 1 pocket stretched from 90W to 140W. It appears the cool pool is holding steady or weakening slightly. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (11/14) cold water started filling the Equatorial Pacific early March then retracted in June, rebuilt in coverage mid-July, then retracted in Aug, rebuilt in early Sept then quickly faded early Oct. Today the cool pool is steady extending west to 140W (previously 148W last week of Oct and 152W 3rd week of Oct) but with no markedly cold center and -1 to -1.5 degs temps from 90W-132W. A La Nina pattern is in play with 5 pulses so far but not strongly so. Warm water is limited in coverage west of the dateline and getting steadily warmer in the far West Pacific. The subsurface temperature forecast suggests that this is the last pulse of cold water forecast with warm water in the west blocking the development of any more cold water Kelvin Waves. Interesting. Is the subsurface cool pool dissolving?

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (11/21) The latest images depict a La Nina cool stream was filling the equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to almost the dateline and not very strong and broken into pockets. We are in La Nina, but not strongly.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (11/21): Cooling pockets are developing over the equatorial Pacific from the Galapagos to 120W. It seems a Active Phase of the MJO previously suppressing development of cold upwelling on the equator is moving east an east anomalies and the Inactive Phase of the MJO are starting to develop over the east Pacific now.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/22) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps continue rising hard to +0.265, starting the upward rise on 11/4-5 when anomalies were as low as any previous reading (near -1.4 degs), then rebuilt before that in the -1.245 range, falling hard to -1.468 (9/27). Temps were falling the previous 10 days but steady before (since 8/7) at roughly -0.75 degs after reaching a low on 7/29 near -1.1 degs, falling the previous 3 weeks after briefly being up near +0.0 (7/7-7/11) after rising from -1.008 (on Tues 6/25). Previously the trend has been steady at roughly -0.750 since 5/14. Highlights from the recent past are -1.105 (5/28), -1.014 (5/16) rising to +0.184 degrees (5/2) after falling to -0.843 (4/21) and -0.565 on 4/1 and has been below 0 since 3/19.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/22) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were steady at -0.475 and generally steady since 11/4, lower near -1.0 degs 9/21-10/28, and had been falling steadily in pulses since 6/30. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20 and but then rebuilt hovering near neutral 6/2 through 6/30. Previously temps have been in the +1.2 deg range since 3/11. Temps were at +1.2 degs or higher since 1/13. Temps had been in the +1.5 range 11/19-1/12.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were -0.0 week of 11/13. Previously temps were -0.3 (11/6), -0.2 (10/30), -0.5 (10/23), -0.3 (10/16), -0.5 degs (10/9), -0.3 (10/2), -0.2 degs (10/25), -0.5 degs (9/18 the first time solidly negative), -0.2 (9/11), -0.1 (9.4), -0.2 (8/28), 0.0 (8/21), -0.1 degrees (8/14) +0.0 (8/7) -0.2 degrees (7/31) and the first week negative in a year, +0.1 (week of 7/24), +0.2 (7/17), +0.3 (7/10 and 7/3), +0.4 ( 6/26) +0.3 (6/19) +0.0 (week of 6/12) +0.1 (6/5 & 5/29) +0.2 degs (5/15 and 5/22), +0.3 (5/8), +0.5 (5/1), +0.8 (4/24), +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data is -0.28 Oct., -0.25 Sept, -0.11 August, +0.05 July, +0.18 June, +0.24 May, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +1.52 Feb, +1.82 Jan 2024, +2.02 Dec (2023), +2.02 Nov, and +1.72 Oct (2023).
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.76 (ASO), -0.63 (JAS), -0.51 (JJA), -0.45 (MJJ), -0.26 (AMJ), +0.06 MAM, +0.50 FMA, +0.86 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.47 ft for NDJ 2023 (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.49 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb then down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and then +0.25 mid June falling to -0.15 degs in mid-Aug, -0.3 mid Sept and -0.35 mid-Oct and up to -0.2.0 in Nov. Temps did not fall anywhere near as fast or hard as forecast.
Forecast (11/21) - Temps to fall hard to -1.1 in Dec and -1.3 in Jan before rebounding to -0.25 in April 2025 and holding there into Aug. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same steep drop with temps to -1.10 degs in Dec and -1.5 degs in Jan. None of this is believable since the CFS model has been showing steep drops in temps since July 2024, and those drops never materialize. We are only moving to a weak La Nina.
IRI Consensus Plume: The November 19, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.475 degs today (unchnged from last month) and is the 6th month below neutral since El Nino developed. Temps to fall a little more down to -0.496 in Dec (3 month running mean) then then rising from there to +0.173 JJA (June July Aug). This is an upgrade with temps previously forecast down to -0.944 (per the April model run). The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.565 in Nov and the Statistic down to -0.367 in Nov. Both these projections are about like before but only suggest a bare minimal week La Nina.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (11/22) the Daily Index was positive at 12.40 today, and positive the last 13 days, negative 12 days before, positive the previous 10 days, negative the previous 4 days, positive 18 days previous, negative the previous 5 days, positive 4 days previous, negative the 11 days before that, positive 22 days previous. Over the past month it was a mix of positive and negative.
The 30 day average was rising some at 4.15 and has been weakly positive the last month. Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was steady at 3.59 and still effectively neutral as it has been the last month. The first positive value was on 9/5 since the demise of El Nino. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
We are in ENSO neutral status.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling to -1.52 in March 2024, -2.12 April, -2.99 May, -3.16 in June, -2.99 July, -2.91 Aug and -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and now -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.