Saturday, November 20, 2021
- Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor)/Buoy 239 (Lanai)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 3.0 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 2.2 ft @ 8.0 secs from 184 degrees. Water temp 80.4 degs (Pearl Harbor 233), NA (Lani 239), 80.1 (Barbers Pt).
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 2.6 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 1.9 ft @ 9.4 secs from 118 degrees. Water temp 79.5 degs.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.1 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 1.2 ft @ 13.0 secs from 178 degrees. Wind at the buoy was northwest at 4-6 kts. Water temperature 61.0 degs, 60.8 (Topanga 103), 61.3 degs (Long Beach 215), 63.0 (Del Mar 153), 64.8 (Pt Loma 191). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 6.2 ft @ 10.6 secs from 308 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.6 ft @ 13.2 secs from 215 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.4 ft @ 13.3 secs from 218 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 2.0 ft @ 12.9 secs from 228 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 7.1 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 5.9 ft @ 9.6 secs from 312 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was northwest 8-12 kts. Water temp 58.5 (Pt Reyes 029), 58.3 (46026), 58.5 degs (SF Bar 142), and 57.7 (Santa Cruz 254).
See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Saturday (11/20) North and Central CA had waves at shoulder high and clean early but not real powerful. Protected breaks had sets at chest to maybe shoulder high and clean and with decent form. At Santa Cruz surf was chest high and clean and soft. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist high on the sets and clean and somewhat lined up but soft and inconsistent. Central Orange County had waist high sets or so and clean and lined up with decent form when they came. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at waist to chest high on the peak and lined up and clean with decent form coming from the south. North San Diego had sets to waist high and clean and lined up but weak. Hawaii's North Shore was getting a few waist high sets and clean and weak. The South Shore had a few thigh high sets and reasonably clean and lined up but weak. The East Shore was near flat and chopped with moderate east trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Saturday (11/20) Hawaii was quiet with no surf of interest occurring. California was small but getting some lingering windswell from a weak gale that developed off Oregon on Wed-Thurs (11/18) producing 19 ft seas. A gale was developing in the Northern Gulf on Sat-Sun (11/21) producing 21 ft seas forecast building to 28 ft. Another was falling southeast through the Western Gulf on Sat (11/20) producing 21 ft seas aimed east possible offering something for Hawaii. A stronger one is to be developing on the dateline Sun-Tues (11/23) with up to 39 ft seas aimed east and secondary fetch from it to produce 26-27 ft seas in the Western Gulf on Tues-Wed (11/24). And beyond perhaps another is to form in the Northwestern Gulf Sat (11/27) with 29 ft seas aimed east. And yet another is to be developing at the same time over the dateline producing 27 ft seas aimed east. So an improving pattern is possible. It's about time.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Saturday (11/20) the jet was reasonably consolidated tracking east off Japan with winds building to 160 kts approaching the dateline and falling into a developing trough offering support for gale development there. East of there the jet was ridging northeast pushing into British Columbia aimed weather there with a solid ridge in control of the US West Coast. Over the next 72 hours the trough over the dateline is to be lifting steadily northeast and holding together still supporting gale formation into late Mon (11/22) then falling apart just off Vancouver Island. And another trough is to start building over the dateline on Sun (11/21) while building into later Mon (11/22) being fed by 160 kts winds offering good support for gale development while pushing east into Tues (11/23) moving into the Western Gulf looking favorable to support gale formation. Beyond 72 hours that trough is to fade over the Central Gulf on Wed (11/25). Back to the west a well defined flow of 160-170 kt winds is to start extending east from Japan on Tues (11/23) reaching the dateline on Thurs (11/25) not forming a trough yet but consolidated almost over the entire width of the North Pacific running east on the 40N latitude line and looking to be very supportive of gale development into Sun (11/28). The jetstream is finally awakening.
On Saturday (11/20) small lingering windswell was hitting Hawaii. And different small windswell was hitting California from a local gale previously off Oregon (see Local NCal Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours starting Fri PM (11/19) another gale was building in the Northern Gulf producing 35 kt southwest winds with seas building,. On Sat AM (11/20) the gale was over the Northern Gulf with 30-40 kt westerly winds and seas 21 ft aimed east. In the evening the gale is to get batter formed producing 40-45 kt west winds and 24 ft seas at 52.75 149W aimed east. On Sun AM (11/21) west winds to be 40 kts over a small area with seas 30 ft at 55.25N 143.5W aimed east but east of the NCal swell window. The gale is to move inland after that over Alaska. Maybe some sideband swell to result for the Pacific Northwest down into North CA.
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (11/23) building to 2.0 ft @ 12 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 310 degrees
Also on Fri AM (11/19) a small fetch of westerly winds at 35 kts was developing over the North Dateline region getting traction and producing 20 ft seas at 47N 178E aimed southeast. In the evening fetch was fading at 30 kts falling southeast with seas 18 ft at 45N 177W aimed east. Secondary westerly fetch developed Sat AM (11/20) over the North Dateline Region at 35 kts with seas building from 18 ft at 49N 177W. In the evening 30-35 kt northwest winds are to be falling southeast producing 20 ft seas at 46N 171W aimed southeast. On Sun AM (11/21) fetch is to be gone being consumed by a new gael developing on the dateline. Maybe some sideband swell to result for Hawaii.
Oahu: Maybe swell arriving on Tues (11/23) building to 3.5 ft @ 12-13 secs (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell fading Wed (11/24) from 2.4 ft @ 11-12 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 330 degrees
Also on Sun AM (11/21) a more impressive gale is to be building over the Dateline Region producing northwest winds at 45-50 kts with seas building from 22 ft at 37N 174E aimed southeast. The gale is to track east in the evening with 50-55 kt west winds and seas building from 32 ft at 39.75N 179.25W aimed east. On Mon AM (11/22) fetch is to be nearly stationary over the dateline at 50-55 kts from the west with 37 ft seas at 43.5N 175.25W aimed east. In the evening the gale is to fade over the dateline with 40-45 kt west winds and seas 36 ft at 46N 172.5W aimed east.
On Tues AM (11/23) secondary fetch is to be 35 kts from the northwest over the dateline over a building area with seas 20-23 ft over a broad area centered at 405N 180W aimed east. In the evening 40 kt northwest fetch is to be falling southeast with 27 ft seas at 41.75N 175.75W aimed southeast. On Wed AM (11/24) fetch is to be fading from 35 kts moving into the Western Gulf with 28 ft seas over a small area at 38.25N 169W aimed southeast. The gale is to fade from there. Something to monitor.
Local NCal Gale
On Wed PM (11/17) a small local gale was developing just off Southern Oregon producing 35-40 kt north winds and seas building from 19 ft at 42N 139.5W aimed southeast. On Thurs AM (11/18) a small fetch of northwest winds at 35-40 kts were off Oregon with seas 19 ft at 41.5N 135W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale is to start impacting Oregon with 30-35 kt northwest winds just off the coast and seas 18 ft at 42.75N 130.5W aimed southeast targeting North CA. The gale is to be moving inland after that with seas fading from 16 ft at 43.5N 125W aimed south. Perhaps some north angled windswell to result for North and Central CA.
North CA: Swell fading on Sat (11/20) from 5.4 ft @ 10 secs (5.0 ft). Residuals on Sun (11/21) fading from 3.9 ft @ 9 secs (3.5 ft) Swell Direction: 295 degrees moving to 310 degrees
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical systems of interest are forecast.
California Nearshore Forecast
- Sun (11/20) north winds are forecast at 10 kts for Cape Mendocino and light northeast from Pt Arena southward early. Light northeast winds everywhere in the afternoon.
- Mon (11/21) a light northeasterly flow is forecast early for all of North and Central CA holding all day.
- Tues (11/22) high pressure starts building in with north winds forecast at 10-15 kts early for North CA early and 10-15 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon north winds to build to 20-25 kts for North and Central CA. Light rain for Cape Mendocino early breaking up late AM.
- Wed (11/23) north winds are forecast at 20-25 kts for North CA early and 10-15 kts for Central CA though likely lighter nearshore. In the afternoon north winds are forecast at 15 kts for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA.
- Thurs (11/24) north to northeast winds are forecast at 5-10 kts early for both North and Central CA fading to calm later.
- Fri (11/25) light north winds are forecast at 5-10 kts early for North and Central CA holding all day.
- Sat (11/26) northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts early for North CA and 5 kts for Central CA turning south 5 kts for Cape Mendocino later and northwest 5 kts for Central CA later.
Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches.
Freezing level 9,500 ft today building to 12,500 ft on 11/21 only to fall down to 7,000 ft on 11/23, then rebuilding to 12,000 ft on 11/25-11/27 only to fall to 9,000 ft on 11/29.
Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level (more here - scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!
No swell producing fetch has occurred of is forecast.
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours starting Thurs PM (11/25) a new fetch of 30-40 kt westerly winds is to be building just west of the dateline with seas building from 23 ft at 45N 176E aimed east. On Fri AM (11/26) west fetch is to be fading from 35 kts on the dateline with 25 ft seas over a tiny area at 45.75N 179.25W aimed east. The gale is to fade from there.
On Sat PM (11/27) a new gale is to be building in the Western Gulf with 45-50 kt west winds and seas building from 30 ft at 45.5N 160W aimed east.
At the same time fetch is to be building on the southern dateline at 40 kts with seas building from 26 ft at 39.5N 177E aimed southeast. Something to monitor.
And more energy is to be building off Japan.
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
La Nina Cold Surface Water Surging
Summary - Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21, beating last years volume, and now is fading in coverage and apparently starting to surge to the surface. The forecast does suggest weak west anomalies taking over the Western KWGA in January and filling 40% of the KWGA after that with the low pressure bias slowly building in from the west. It is possible the cold subsurface pool is now erupting to the surface in the East Pacific, possibly signaling the peak of La Nina. No significant west anomalies seem likely to significantly impact the volume and depth of cold water under the Central Equatorial Pacific before Winter is well underway.
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).
Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall /Winter 2021-2022 = 3.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina is making a strong return as we move into the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen. So at this point we are speculating that the CFS model will verify and that a full double dip La Nina pattern will take hold as we move into November with this second La Nina dip being nearly as strong as the previous one. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late Fall (Nov) with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern at that time and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Dec. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter. But by later in Jan 2022 perhaps a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. As a result a somewhat reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct-Dec, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by later Winter (2022), the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The status of the PDO is not known, though it appears to be returning to at least a neutral state, rather than the warm phase as previously projected thereby having no significant positive or negative effect on the long term outlook.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (11/19) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. Anomalies were modest east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (11/20) east anomalies were moderate to strong over the entire KWGA and reaching east to a point south of California. The forecast calls for moderate to strong east anomalies filling the KWGA centered near the dateline through then end of the model run on 11/27. Strong west anomalies are to be poised right at the western edge of the KWGA but not pushing into it (and have been since 11/5).
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
- MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (11/19) A modest Active MJO signal was indicated trying to push into the KWGA today filling 30% of it. The statistic model projects the modest Active MJO Phase holding unchanged through day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model projects a far weaker Active Phase limited to the far west KWGA on day 5 of the model run then fading to neutral on day 10 and holding on day 15.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (11/20) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over the Maritime Continent and is forecast tracking to the West Pacific at day 15 of the model run and exceedingly weak. The dynamic model suggests the same thing.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (11/20) A weak Active MJO signal (wet air) was indicated trying to move over the West Pacific today. The Active Phase (wet air) is to be track east and into Central America on 12/15. A modest Inactive Phase (dry air) is to develop over the KWGA on 12/10 pushing to the East Pacific at the end of the model run on 12/30. A very weak Active Phase (wet air) is to be building over the KWGA at that time.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/19) This model depicts a neutral MJO pattern over the KWGA but with moderate to strong east anomalies still in control. The forecast indicates a neutral MJO signal going forward but with east anomalies holding at strong or near strong status through 11/25 then fading to moderate strength through the end of the model run on 12/17. A moderate Active Phase and west anomalies is to be poised over the Maritime Continent trying to enter the West Pacific 12/3 but never making it. Basically , no change is forecast for the next month.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/20 - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day): Today the Inactive Phase of the MJO was pushing through the KWGA with moderate to strong east anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates the Inactive MJO signal is to traverse the KWGA through 11/28 with east anomalies in control over the KWGA peaking on 11/22. A weak Active Phase is forecast developing 11/20 with a second pulse on 12/10 holding through 12/28 with west anomalies trying to push through the KWGA, but with spotty coverage at best. A weak Inactive MJO is to follow tracking through the KWGA 12/24 through 1/10 with the Active Phase behind that on 1/12 through the end of the model run on 2/17 with west anomalies slowly gaining control of the KWGA through the period. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 2 contour lines was centered over the dateline and is to hold while slowly easing east with it's leading edge to 120W on 1/4 and stalling there beyond. A broad single contour low pressure bias is now established centered over the Maritime Continent at 100E with it's leading edge at 125E and barely in the KWGA and is forecast starting to move east further into the KWGA on 12/27 reaching to 150E on 2/14 filling 45% of the KWGA and building east from there. Today a solid east anomaly pattern that has been in control of KWGA since early July is still in control and there's no clear and believable sign of it being dislodged anytime soon. La Nina is to prevail this Winter.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (11/20) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was back at 164E. The 28 deg isotherm line was holding at 179E. The 24 deg isotherm was easing east to 133W. Warm water is holding position. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +2 deg C were pushing east and now steady at 150W. All sensors are down at 140W so this is a little suspect. Cool anomalies were fading from -2 degs C at 100W down 75 meters and tracking east and almost gone from the East Pacific. No Kelvin Waves were obvious and cool water was in control in the east at depth but definitely less of a force than weeks and months past. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 11/14 is less optimistic indicating no warm water east of 150W at depth with a bubble of cold water at -4C below normal east of there (where the sensors are inoperable) extending upward to the surface and into Ecuador but with less intensity than weeks past and definitely losing ground. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (11/14) Sea heights were negative over the East equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to 150W at -5 cms with shrinking area of -15 cms anomalies between 110W-130W. No -20 or -25 cms anomalies exist anymore. It seems that the coverage of negative anomalies is in quick decline. All positive anomalies were limited from 170E and points west of there at 20 to 25 cms. A warm water 'horseshoe' pattern is well developed in the West Pacific. La Nina made a return and stronger than last year, but now appears to be in decline, at least from the subsurface water temp perspective. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram La Nina subsurface cold temperatures peaked in coverage in mid-Oct, far broader than last year (-2.5 degs C), but as of 11/14 that coverage is collapsing centered at 125W with the coolest anomalies (-2.5 degs) gone and -2.0 deg anomalies shrinking from the west while building east. It appears a cold water Kelvin Wave (upwelling Kelvin Wave) is tracking east.
Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (11/19) The latest images depict a broad stream of cool water on the equator but weakening though still dominant along Chile and Peru then turning west and quickly building from just off Ecuador over the Galapagos and building in concentration tracking peaking out to 130W then weaker west of there. Cooling nearshore along Chile and Peru was still present. A homogenous area of warm water just north of the equator was fading some from Ecuador west to 140W and up along Central America into Southern Baja and fading. Overall this indicates the return of cold water temps in the Central Equatorial Pacific indicative of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (11/19): Temps were warming weakly along Chile and Peru. Of more interest temps were cooling over a thin but solid stream from Ecuador out to 130W then in pockets to 140W. A cold water Kelvin Wave is erupting at the surface in the East equatorial Pacific.
Hi-res Overview: (11/19) A broad stream of cooler than normal water was aligned on the equator from Ecuador to 110W then stronger out to 120W then weaker to 160E. Cooler than normal waters were also south of that line down to 20S. Warmer than normal waters were limited to a line north of the equator up to Mexico and along the US Coast up to Pt Conception. A cool outflow remains in place pushing from South California southwest to the a point over Hawaii's Big Island but far weaker than previous. La Nina is making a solid resurgence focused over the Central Pacific.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/20) Today's temps were steady at -1.579 after bottoming out on 11/16 at -1.653, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. Before that temps were toggling around neutral 6/13-8/5 except for one dip to -0.411 on 7/8. Prior to that temps peaked on 3/16 when they briefly hit +0.714 degs. Last year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/20) Today temps were stable at -0.818 after rising to -0.685 on 11/9, and that after bottoming out at -1.08 on 11/2, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (11/20) - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June then fading to -0.3 degs through Aug and to -0.75 degs in mid Oct. The forecast indicates temps to continue a dramatic fall from here forward dropping down to -1.55 in mid Jan 2022 then quickly pushing up to +0.00 degs in July 2022. This model suggests a return of La Nina conditions and strongly so this Fall and Winter. There is no indication that El Nino will develop. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps falling to -1.40 degs in late Nov starting to rise slowly after mid-Jan 2022. At this point that is as good a guess as any. And the model has been unwavering in this projection for months now.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Oct 20, 2021 Plume depicts temps are at -0.90 degs today, and are to fade to -0.91 degrees in Nov, then rising to -0.46 degs in Feb and neutral in April 2022. A solid return of La Nina is expected this Fall and early Winter 2021-2022.
See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator) (11/20): The daily index was positive at +10.69. The trend has been towards positive readings with previous notable peaks were at +36.90 on 9/28, +27.75 on 9/13 and +37.86 on 7/15. The 30 day average was rising at +6.14 after previously falling to +6.06 on 11/6 after peaking at +11.58 on 10/22. Before that it fell to -3.36 on 6/22, the lowest in a year. It peaked at +19.51 on 1/14. The 90 day average was rising some to +9.40 today after falling to +7.10 on 11/1. It previously peaking on 9/21 at +9.80 after falling to it's lowest point in a year on 6/9 at +1.06. The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 on 2/23 (clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative every since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'). If anything it appears more likely we are still in the cool phase of the PDO.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131
Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ
Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.
Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table