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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Saturday, November 19, 2022 1:17 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
3.2 - California & 4.0 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 11/21 thru Sun 11/27

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Weak Dateline Swell Pushing East
Southern Hemi Swell Tracking Northeast for CA

 

BUOY ROUNDUP
Saturday, November 19, 2022 :

  • Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt)/Buoy 239 (Lani): Seas were 2.8 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 1.7 ft @ 13.1 secs from 190 degrees. Water temp 79.2 degs (Barbers Pt), 79.5 (Pearl Harbor 233), 80.1 (Lani 239).
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 4.5 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 2.9 ft @ 11.3 secs from 348 degrees. Water temp 79.2 degs.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 4.6 ft @ 5.3 secs with swell 1.4 ft @ 12.8 secs from 274 degrees. Wind northeast at 20-22 kts. Water temperature 61.0 degs, 60.3 (Topanga 103), 61.2 degs (Long Beach 215), 61.3 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 61.2 (Del Mar 153), 63.0 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 3.0 ft @ 12.5 secs from 284 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.3 ft @ 14.5 secs from 262 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.4 ft @ 13.2 secs from 236 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.4 ft @ 13.3 secs from 278 degrees. Water temperate was 61.5 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 4.9 ft @ 12.8 secs with swell 2.9 ft @ 11.6 secs from 272 degrees. Wind northeast at 16-20 kts. Water temp 57.0 (Bodega Bay 46013), 58.8 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 54.1 (46026), 54.3 (SF Bar 142), 53.4 (Pt Santa Cruz 254) and 55.9 (Monterey Bay 46042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Saturday (11/19) North and Central CA had sets at waist to maybe near chest high on the bigger peaks and lined up and clean with brick offshore winds but weak and soft. Protected breaks were waist high and lined up and clean but very soft. At Santa Cruz surf was waist high on the sets and clean and soft. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist high and clean and soft with strong offshore winds. Central Orange County had sets at waist to near chest high on the sets and lined up and clean but soft with modest offshore wind. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had some waist high sets and lined up and clean with light offshore winds. North San Diego had sets at thigh high to maybe waist high and soft and clean with light offshore winds. Hawaii's North Shore was getting waves at chest high at top spots and fairly clean but soft and with northeast windlump running through it. The South Shore was flat to thigh high and clean. The East Shore was getting east windswell at knee to thigh high and chopped from solid northeast wind.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Saturday (11/19) neither Hawaii or California was getting any swell of interest. A gale developed west of the dateline Thurs-Fri (11/18) producing 26-28 ft seas aimed east but dod not make it but a little way east of dateline. The next gale is forecast developing in the Central Gulf on Tues-Thurs (11/24) producing 25 ft seas aimed southeast at Hawaii and maybe up to 38 ft seas aimed east at the US West Coast. And another is forecast developing just off Japan tracking hard northeast Thurs-Sat (11/26) producing 32 ft seas aimed northeast. A pretty wonky Fall season continues.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Saturday (11/19) the jetstream was consolidate pushing east off Japan on the 40N latitude line forming a trough mid-way to the dateline being fed by 170 kts winds in one pocket on the dateline offering some support for gale development. the jet remained intact to the Western Gulf then vaporized. Over the next 72 hours that trough is to push steadily east-northeast into Mon (11/21) over the far Western Gulf still holding together decently and offering some weak potential for gale development. The jet itself is to weaken over Japan at that time and weakly split offering nothing. Beyond 72 hours starting Tues (11/22) the trough in the jet over the Western Gulf is to start building being fed by tiny pocket of 180 kts winds 1,200 nmiles northwest of Hawaii and deepening while tracking slowly east positioned due north of Hawaii late Wed (11/23) offering more support for gale development before pinching some and weakening on Thurs (11/24). But some degree of troughing is to continue over the Central Gulf into Sat (11/26) offering some limited hope for gale formation. Back to the west the jet is to try and start reconsolidating off Japan pushing to the dateline on Sat (11/26) perhaps forming a weak trough there but with a ridge from the dateline east to the Central Gulf pushing up to the Eastern Aleutians offering nothing.


Surface Analysis
On Saturday (11/19) swell was fading in HI and CA from a gale previously over the
West Pacific that tracked east and built some in the Gulf (see Gulf Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours swell from a gale that developed over the West Pacific is to be propagating east, but weak (see West Pacific Gale below).

 

Gulf Gale
Starting Fri PM (11/11) another gale started building while pushing southeast off Kamchatka with northwest winds at 30-35 kts and seas 23 ft at 48N 169E aimed southeast. On Sat AM (11/12) 30-35 kt northwest winds were pushing southeast with seas 22 ft at 47.5N 171E aimed southeast and unimpressive. In the evening 30 kt west winds to be approaching the dateline with seas 21 ft at 48.5N 177E. On Sun AM (11/13) the gale was over the far Western Gulf of Alaska with 30 kt northwest winds over a small area and seas 20 ft at 42N 175W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale was lifting northeast with 30-35 kt northwest winds over a small area and seas 22 ft at 43N 167.75W aimed southeast. On Mon AM (11/14) fetch was rebuilding over the Western Gulf at 40-45 kts with seas 23 ft at 47.25N 160.25W aimed southeast. The gale was falling south some in the evening with 40 kt northwest winds and seas building from 26 ft at 45.75N 158-75W aimed southeast at the US West Coast. On Tues AM (11/15) the gale is to be falling south over the Western Gulf with 35 kt north winds over a decent sized area and 21 ft seas at 42.5N 159W aimed south-southeast at Hawaii. The gale is to be fading in the evening with north winds 35 kts 1,000 nmiles north of Hawaii with seas 22 ft at 42N 159.5W. On Wed AM (11/16) the gale is to fall south and fade with 30 kt northwest winds and seas fading from 21 ft at 37N 156W. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Dribbles on Sat (11/19) fading from 2.7 ft @ 11 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 330 moving to 360 degrees

North CA: Swell fading on Sat (11/19) from 2.5 ft @ 11-12 secs early (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 292 degrees

 

West Pacific Gale
A gale developed off Japan Wed PM (11/16) producing 35 kt west winds with seas building 26 ft over a tiny area aimed east at 40.5N 163.25E and a long ways way from anywhere. On Thurs AM (11/17) the gale was tracking east with west winds 40 kts with 25 ft seas at 42.5N 167E aimed east. Fetch continued in the evening at 40-45 kts with seas 27 ft at 43N 169.25E aimed east. On Fri AM (11/18) fetch was fading from 35+ kts from the west approaching the dateline with seas 28 ft at 42N 174.25E aimed east. In the evening winds continued at 35-40 kts from the west over the dateline with 27 ft seas at 43.25N 177.25E aimed east. On Sat AM (11/19) fetch was fading from 30-35 kts with seas 25 ft at 43.5N 176.5W aimed east. The gale is to be gone after that. Small swell is radiating east.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Mon (11/21) building to 4.0 ft @ 13-14 secs later (5.5 ft). Swell fading on Tues (11/22) from 3.4 ft @ 13-14 secs early (4.5 ft). Dribbles on Wed (11/23) fading from 2.6 ft @ 11-12 secs (3.0 ft). Swell DIrection: 320 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (11/23) building to 3.2 ft @ 14-15 secs later and very inconsistent (4.5 ft). Swell continues on Thurs (11/24) at 3.8 ft @ 13 secs (5.0 ft) and slow. Swell fading early Fri (11/25) at 3.0 ft @ 12-13 secs (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 292 degrees.

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored at this time.

California Nearshore Forecast

  • Sun AM (11/20) northeast winds are forecast at 5-10 kts early for North and Central CA. Light northwest winds are forecast at 5 kts in the afternoon for North and Central CA. No precip is forecast.
  • Mon AM (11/21) northwest winds are forecast at 5-10 kts early for North and Central CA. In the afternoon north to northeast west winds are forecast at 5-10 kts for North and Central CA.
  • Tues AM (11/22) northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts early for North and Central CA early . In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts for North and Central CA but up to 15 kts near Monterey Bay.
  • Wed AM (11/23) northwest winds are forecast at 15 kts for North CA early and 10-15 kts for Central CA. No change in the afternoon.
  • Thurs AM (11/24) north to northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts for North and Central CA early turning more northeasterly in the afternoon.
  • Fri AM (11/25) light northeast winds are forecast at 5-10 kts for North CA and 5 kts for Central CA early holding in the afternoon. .
  • Sat AM (11/26) north winds are forecast at 5-10 kts early for North and Central CA. in the afternoon northwest winds are forecast 10-15 ks for North CA and 15 kts for Central CA.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 18, 23, 19, and 18 inches on Sun-Mon (11/28).

Freezing level for Lake Tahoe is 10.500 ft and forecast building to 12,000 ft 11/24-11/26 then falling to 5,000 ft on 11/27 and lower beyond.

- - -

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

 

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
A gale formed over the Southeast Pacific producing small swell radiating northeast (see Southeast Pacific Gale below).

And another gale formed over the same area right behind the first (see Another Southeast Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.

 

Southeast Pacific Gale
A gale developed over the Southeast Pacific on Sun AM (11/13) producing 40 kt southwest winds and 30 ft seas at 56.5S 133W aimed northeast. The gale lifting northeast in the evening with 40 kt southwest winds and seas 32 ft at 53.75S 124.5W aimed northeast. The gael fading and pushed east of the SCal swell window after that. Small swell to result.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (11/21) building to 1.9 ft @ 17-18 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell building some on Tues (11/22) to 2.4 ft @ 15-16 secs mid-day (4.0 ft). Swell fading some on Wed (11/23) from 2.1 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.0 ft). Residuals fading on Thurs (11/24) at 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 189 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (11/22) building to 2.3 ft @ 16-17 secs mid-day (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell fading on Wed (11/23) from 2.2 ft @ 15 secs early (3.0 ft). Residuals on Thurs (11/24) fading from 1.8 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 188 moving to 184 degrees

 

Another Southeast Pacific Gale
Another gale developed over the Southeast Pacific on Wed AM (11/16) producing 35 kt southwest winds over a broad area with seas building from 25 ft at 56.25S 124.75W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds were 40-45 kts with seas 27 ft at 56.5S 125.25W aimed well northeast. On Thurs AM (11/17) south winds were 40-45 kts solid over a broad aimed aimed north with seas 31 ft at 54.25S 122W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch was fading from 35 kts from the south with seas 28 ft at 53S 118W aimed north and barely in the SCal swell window. The gale moved east of the SCal swell window after that.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (11/24) late building to 1.4 ft @ 18 secs (2.5 ft). Swell building on Fri (11/25) to 1.8 ft @ 16-17 secs mid-AM (3.0 ft). Swell continues on Sat (11/26) at 1.8 ft @ 15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading on Sun (11/27) from 2.0 ft @ 14 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 187 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (11/25) building to 1.7 ft @ 17 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell continues on Sat (11/26) at 1.7 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5 ft). Swell fading on Sun (11/27) from 1.7 ft @ 14 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 183 degrees This swell likely to be buried in northwest swell hitting at the same time.

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours another gale is to develop Tues PM (11/22) in the Central Gulf producing a broad fetch of 35 kt north winds aimed at Hawaii and 45 kt northwest winds wrapping around its core aimed at the US West Coast with seas 23 ft aimed at Hawaii at 47N 167W and 25 ft at 40N 158.5W aimed at the US West Coast. On Wed AM (11/23) the gale is to be lifting northeast fairly quick with 50 kt northwest winds wrapping around it's core with 35-40 kt north winds west of there producing seas of 35 ft at 40N 167W aimed south at Hawaii and 36 ft seas at 43.75N 149W aimed at the US West Coast. In the evening the gale is to be racing northeast with 45 kt winds and seas 25 ft at 38N 163W aimed at Hawaii and 39 ft seas at 48.5N 143.25W aimed aimed somewhat at the US West Coast but mostly at British Columbia. On Thurs (11/24) the gale is to be impacting North Canada with 40 kts winds and seas up to 28 ft aimed south and southeast at Hawaii and the US West coast at 52N 148W aimed southeast. Something to monitor.

On Fri-Sat (11/26) a gale is forecast develop off North Japan lifting steadily northeast producing 45 kts west winds and seas to 32 ft over a small area near 43.25N 157.75E aimed east. Minimal swell to result at best.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Upwelling Phase Trying to Hold
Weak West Wind Anomaly Pattern Setting Up over KWGA - SOI Falling Some
Cool subsurface water volume peaked under the equatorial Pacific on 10/15/21, faded in May and June 2022, but rebuilt in late July and is holding today. La Nina conditions are in control oceanically but appear to be fading some on the surface south of Nino3.4. And atmospherically anomalous Westerly Winds are starting to develop in the West KWGA and are forecast to continue for the foreseeable future, with La Nina collapsing near Christmas and water temps rising beyond. The outlook is turning more optimistic.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. A slow dissolving of La Nina started in March 2021 with 2 Kelvin Waves sweeping east and arriving over the Galapagos in June. Weak warming set up over the equator with no cool waters present. NOAA declared La Nina dead. But cold water returned in July 2021 and a second pulse of La Nina developed through the Winter of 2022 and is continuing today, though possibly weaker with its foundation appearing to be in decline.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2022 = 4.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It was assumed that the moderate La Nina from the Winter of 2020/2021 was on the wane and that a return to neutral ENSO state would set up over the Pacific Basin through the summer of 2021. But La Nina made a strong return by the end of Sept much like what the CFS model suggested would happen and a full double dip pattern took hold through the Winter of 21/22. But a quick fade is forecast as we move into late December 2022 with the CFS predicting a return to a neutral wind anomaly pattern and the low pressure bias making headway in to the KWGA in early Jan. Still it will take some time for the atmosphere to fully respond, resulting in a less than normal swell production forecast especially for Fall into early Winter 2022. But by later in Jan or early Feb 2023 a return to a more normal pattern might take hold. As a result a significantly reduced number of storm days and storm intensity is expected Oct 22-Jan 23, resulting in a below normal level of swells, with swell being below normal duration and period. But by Feb 2023, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start improving as La Nina fades out. The net result is we're currently thinking a near normal number of swells with normal size and duration is to result, but all focused sometime after Jan 2023. The swell pattern will be below normal before Jan and above normal after Jan 23 with the average of the two being 'normal'. Of course this is all highly speculative at this early date.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (11/18) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate to strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were light east over the East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
1-2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (11/19) Moderate east anomalies were filling the KWGA today and strong over the dateline. The 7 day forecast calls east anomalies holding while retrograding west but with the strong anomalies over the dateline today fading on 11/22 leaving moderate east anomalies over the West KWGA beyond and maybe hinting at fading at the end of the model run on 11/26. The 2 week GFS model suggest moderate east anomalies over the KWGA fading on 11/26 with moderate west anomalies developing over the western half of the KWGA on 11/30 then fading with east anomalies returning on 12/5.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (11/18) A moderate Active Phase of the MJO signal was indicated today over the KWGA. The statistical model indicates it holding on day 5 then fading some on day 10 and neutral on day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model suggests the same thing.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (11/19) The statistical model depicts the Active signal was weak over the East Maritime Continent and is to east over the West Pacific over the next 5-7 days then collapse there. The dynamic model suggest the Active Phase tracking east through the West Pacific at modest strength then next 9 days then collapsing to weak status there at day 15.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (11/19) The Active Phase (wet air) was tracking east over the KWGA and is forecast to continue tracking east and over the East equatorial Pacific and into Ecuador on 12/14. A moderate Inactive Phase (dry air) is to develop over the KWGA on 12/9 and filling the equatorial Pacific at the end of the model run on 12/29.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/18)
A weak Inactive signal was over the KWGA today with moderate east anomalies filling the KWGA. Moderate east anomalies are to hold through 11/26 retrograding west. Then the Active Phase is to start building over the KWGA 11/25 holding through 11/30 but not making much progress but with west anomalies developing in the KWGA and filling it 11/26-12/3, losing some ground but holding filling the Western KWGA onward west of 150E. East anomalies are to be weak over the dateline during that window.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind):
(11/19) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today a weak Inactive MJO signal was indicated over the KWGA with weak west anomalies limited to the area west of 130E with moderate east anomalies east of there focused on the dateline. This pattern is to generally hold through 11/26, then then Inactive Phase is to collapse on 11/29 with east anomalies collapsing 11/26 with west anomalies tracking over the entirety of the KWGA then and holding for the foreseeable future through the end of the model run on 2/16. but strongest through 12/21, then weaker. The big change is forecast on 11/25. The MJO signal is be generally weak. East anomalies are to be relegated east of the Pacific by early Dec. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias with 2 contour lines centered at 180W with its western perimeter at 150E today. The second contour is to collapse on 12/15 with the primary contour collapsing on 2/10. A broad double contour low pressure bias is established centered over the West Maritime Continent at 90E with it's leading edge at 125E today and is to slowly start pushing east on 11/25 reaching east to 175E at the end of the model run. This is all a big deal and is being repeated in some form consistently from one run of the model to the next. It appears that the high pressure lockdown of the KWGA is starting to fade with no return in sight and suggests the demise of La Nina is starting to occur.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (11/19) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was gone, previously at 171E. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 174E. The 26 degree isotherm was steady at 153W. The 24 deg isotherm backtracked from 118W to 128W and was at 135W today. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies at +3 deg C were in a broad pocket in the far West Pacific down 150m with it's leading edge easing east from 150W to 135W. A pocket of cool anomalies at -2 degs C were centered at 120W and filling the area from 135W and points east of there and steady. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 11149 indicates the same broad area of warm anomalies in the west pushing east to 150W and far warmer. A cool pocket was filling the area east of 148W with it's core at 115W and reaching the surface and far cooler. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (11/14) Sea heights were stable but negative over the East Equatorial Pacific. A broad pocket of positive anomalies were over the equator in the far West Pacific reaching east to 165W. A pocket of negative anomalies were covering from Ecuador to 150W with a core of -15 cm anomalies between 110-135W and -10 cm anomalies holding from 95W to 145W. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram cool anomalies were positioned in the Central Equatorial Pacific between 152W to Ecuador with a cold core between 115W-131W and stable. It is already longer in duration than the previous cool pulse but does appears to be easing east some.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (11/18) The latest images depict a broad generic pool of cool water extending west from Chile and Peru to the dateline and filling well south of the equator in a line east to west down at 25S. A coldest stream was embedded in it running from Ecuador to 145W on the equator. But the broad area of cool water south of that stream reaching south to 25S was losing intensity steadily. A broad area of warm water was present on the equator from Ecuador west to 140W but mostly just north of the equator starting at 2N. Overall this indicates the late stages of La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (11/18): A broad area of steady warming water was indicated along and off Chile up to North Peru and extending west off the coast to about 100W. A thin but building stream of cooling waters extended west from Ecuador to 130W. A cooling trend has set up today.
Hi-res Overview: (11/18) Persistent cool waters cover a large area from Ecuador to 160E on and south of the equator from South America down at 25S with the coolest waters between 80W to 130W directly over the equator. But the intensity and density of those cold waters outside the immediate equator are in steep decline. Warmer than normal waters were on the equator in the east aligned in a thin stream from Ecuador to 120W starting 3 degrees north of the equator. La Nina remains in control over the East Equatorial Pacific but the density and intensity of the cooling appears to be fading.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/19) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs compared to official sources). Today's temps were warming at -1.570 after falling to to -2.177 (11/8) and generally falling to the following points -1.850 (10/20), -1.498 (9/21) and had been falling since 9/14 after being in the -1.0 range since 7/29. Coral Reef indicates temps falling the last 2 days at -1.570 after rising to nearly -1.0 degs on 11/17, previously toggling between -1.8 to -2.1 degs since Oct 9th. Temps were down on 7/20 to -1.6 degs. Previously temps were stable near -1.4 degrees 6/12 through 7/27. Peaks in that time frame were -1.189 (7/7), -1.534 (7/5). Previously temps were at -1.822 on 6/9 after being up to -1.506 (5/21) and that after hovering around -2.0 degs since 4/21/22. Prior to that temps were fading after peaking at +0.760 on 3/18. Temps had been moving upwards since 2/20, and beat a previous high of -0.650 degs on 1/9 and that after being down at -1.871 on 1/3/22 and -1.954 on 12/18/21, the lowest this year so far. Previously temps dropped on 11/24/21 at -1.700, the lowest in months after previously toggling steady at about -0.6 degs from mid Aug to Oct 6, then falling from there. That year temps bottomed out at -2.138 on 8/13/20. The longterm trend has been steadily downward.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(11/19) (These temps are biased high by about 0.2 degs). Today's temps were falling slightly at -1.050 after falling to -1.110 on 11/3 and down at -0.900 on 10/18 beating a previous peak of -0.819 on 9/22 and were in the -1.0 range since 8/16. Coral Reef indicates temps were steady at -1.133 after bottoming out at -1.168 degs on 11/2 after falling hard the previous 12 days. Temps had fallen since 7/15 reaching La Nina threshold on 7/27 after being more or less steady the previous 3 weeks peaking at -0.25 on 7/14 and -0.275 on 7/5. Previously temps had been on an upward trend since 5/15/22 rising to -0.414 degs (6/19) and -0.493 on 6/9, the first reading above La Nina threshold values since Sept 2021. Temps were down to -0.929 (5/2/22) and that after rising to a peak at -0.704 on 3/27 and had been on a gentle rising trend since falling to -1.012 on 3/8. Previously temps were rising slightly to -0.505 on 2/2 and that after reaching a peak low of -1.096 on 1/3/22 beating the previous low of -1.080 on 11/2/21, the lowest in a year. Prior to that temps had been in a freefall starting from the -0.175 range in early Sept/21. Before that temps peaked up at 7/1/21 +0.332, the highest in a year. Temps previously had been steady near -0.222 since early March 2021. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3/2020.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data
Previous - Temps rose in early Nov 2020 after bottoming out at -1.25 degs, up to -0.01 degs in mid-June 2021 then fading to -1.05 degs in mid-Nov then rebuilding to -0.7 in mid Feb 2022 then fading to -1.1 degs in May before starting an upward climb peaking in mid-June at -0.65 degs and mid July at -0.55 degs. A steady decline set in after that falling to -1.00 degs in Aug and earl Sept rising to -0.8 degs mod Oct.
Forecast (11/19) - Temps are to be falling to -1.00 degs in early Dec then starting a fairly steady rise hitting -0.65 degs mid January and reaching above the La Nina threshold (-0.5 degs) the last week of Jan and up to +0.75 degs in July and in El Nino territory. This model suggests we are going to steadily transition towards ENSO neutral in Jan. The PDF Corrected forecast suggests temps bottoming out at -1.00 the 1st week of Dec and then are to start pushing up to -0.60 degs mid- Jan rising above La Nina threshold the last week of Jan and rising from there forward to +0.55 degs in July. All this is a significant upgrade. According to this version of the model we will hold in weak La Nina conditions through Fall before starting a trend towards neutrality in Dec with momentum towards El Nino in Spring. The surface temp coverage model suggests a temps holding steady through Nov. then a steady erosion of the coldest waters south of Nino3.4 (down at 20S) is to begin. By Dec a clear discharge of La Nina is to begin with near neutral temps prevailing over the entire equatorial Pacific and turning fully neutral in Feb and beyond. The greater equatorial Pacific cool signature looks to hold through mid-Oct then quickly dissolving beyond.
IRI Consensus Plume: The November 18, 2022 Plume depicts temps are -0.921 degs today. Temps to rise steadily from here forward to -0.732 degs in Dec and above the La Nina Threshold at -0.494 in Jan and -0.256 in Feb rising to +0.572 in July. This model suggests a continuation of minimal La Nina temps through early Dec then transitioning to ENSO neutral. This model is in line with the CFS model.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (11/19) the Daily Index was steady at +9.67 and has generally been down below the trend of months previous. It was negative for 5 days prior dropping to -31.05 on 11/7. This was the first negative run in months and suggests that the westerly anomaly wind activity in the West Pacific might be having an impact on the SOI. Previous peaks were +37.19 (10/5), +33.57 (5/24), +40.77 (5/10), +31.44 (4/27), +31.80 (4/6), +27.33 (1/31) and +46.71 (12/26). The trend has been solidly positive. Previous other notable peaks were +30.98 (11/26/21), +36.90 (9/28), +27.75 ( 9/13) and +37.86 (7/15).
The 30 day average was falling at +8.11 after peaking at +21.57 (10/16) after supposedly peaking at +19.66 on 9/28. It was down to +6.89 on 7/29. It peaked at +20.34 (5/12) the highest in a year and beating last years high of +19.51 (1/14).
The 90 day average was up some at +13.60 previously peaking at +15.61 on 10/25 and previously peaking at +12.92 on 8/11 and that after peaking at +18.40 (7/2) beating it's previous peak of +16.86 (5/31), the highest in a year. It previously peaked at +9.80 (9/21) after falling to it's lowest point in a year at +1.06 (6/9). The 90 day average peaked at +15.75 (2/23/21 - clearly indicative of La Nina then). This index is a lagging indicator but suggest La Nina is returning.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and was positive till Dec 2019, but has been negative ever since, driven by recent La Nina conditions. In May-July 2021 it was the most negative its been in the -1.80 to -2.04 range since Sept 2012 (-2.99) and then fell to -3.16 in Oct 2021 (the lowest since July 1933) then settled at -2.72 in Nov and Dec 2021. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


Powerlines Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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