Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 3.0 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 2.0 ft @ 7.5 secs from 171 degrees. Water temp 79.5 (Barbers Pt), 78.8 (Pearl Harbor 233), 80.2 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 5.5 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 2.7 ft @ 12.4 secs from 353 degrees. Water temp 78.4 degs.
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 4.6 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 2.9 ft @ 10.4 secs from 283 degrees. Water temp 78.8 degs
Buoy 46025 (Santa Monica Basin): Seas were 2.7 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 1.8 ft @ 10.2 secs from 239 degrees. Wind southeast 12-14 kts. Water temperature 63.7 degs, 60.6 (Harvest 071), 64.0 (Topanga 103), 64.9 (Long Beach 215), 66.0 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 65.8 (Del Mar 153), 66.6 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 3.5 ft @ 12.2 secs from 280 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 1.8 ft @ 10.7 secs from 294 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.2 ft @ 13.2 secs from 217 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 1.6 ft @ 13.3 secs from 189 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.7 ft @ 12.6 secs from 216 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.9 ft @ 11.9 secs from 231 degrees. Water temperature 64.8 degrees.
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): (using 46026/142 - 029 is Down) Seas were 11.0 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 8.0 ft @ 9.3 secs from 289 degrees. Wind NA (Bodega Bay 46013), NW 23-31 kts San Francisco (46026), NA (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and W 20 (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), NA (Pt Reyes 029), 57.7 (San Francisco 46026), 57.9 (SF Bar 142), NA (Half Moon Bay 1801589), 58.8 (Monterey Bay 46092), 58.5 (156 Monterey Outer Canyon).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Monday (11/17) in North and Central CA surf was head high to maybe 1 ft overhead and weakly lined up with poor form and warbled and chopped with whitecaps outside from strong northwest wind. Protected breaks had sets at head high and lined up if not a bit closed out and warbled and chopped and not very good. At Santa Cruz surf was waist to maybe chest high and weakly lined up and mushed and warbled and uneven though surface conditions were reasonably clean. In Ventura County waves were thigh to maybe waist high and lined up and clean with good form but with some small warbled in the water. Central Orange County had sets at waist high or so and lined up with decent form but pretty warbled from brisk southerly wind with almost small whitecaps on top. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had waves at up to chest high and lined up with decent form but with heavy texture bordering on warble from south winds. North San Diego had sets at chest high and lined up with good form and clean with no wind. Oahu's North Shore had sets at head high and lined up and clean but with just a touch of northeast warble. The South Shore had sets at waist to chest high and lined up with good form and clean early. The East Shore was getting east windswell at thigh high and lined up and chopped from moderate east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Monday (11/17) Hawaii was getting background northwest windswell. California was getting generic northwest windswell associated with previous gale activity in the Gulf. A small gale developed over the dateline Sat (11/15) lifting northeast fast producing 28 ft seas aimed briefly east. Secondary fetch developed falling southeast from the dateline Sun-Tues (11/18) producing 20-22 ft seas targeting Hawaii well. A broader gale is forecast off the Kuril reaching east to the dateline and tracking east to the Northwestern Gulf Tues-Thurs (11/20) producing 28-35 ft seas aimed east over a diffuse but broad area targeting Hawaii and CA. And perhaps another small short-lived gale to fall southeast from a point off Vancouver Island Wed (11/19) producing 31 ft seas targeting the Pacific Northwest and CA well. Perhaps another gale to form over the Western Gulf on Mon (11/24) with 28 ft seas aimed southeast. A steady pattern of modest swell to continue.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Monday (11/17) the jetstream was consolidated pushing off Japan running east generally on the 40N latitude line with winds 150 kts over a broad area in the west and 130-140 kts over the Gulf of Alaska. A gentle trough was indicated over the dateline and supporting gale development with a far steeper trough falling south over California with its apex over Monterey Bay providing weather there. Over the next 72 hours starting Tues (11/18) wind energy is to continue building in the jet over an off Japan to 180 kts feeding the trough previously over the dateline and now over the Northwestern Gulf supporting gale development there while the California trough moves inland over Southern CA. And the Gulf trough is to push east while deepening but still very tight if not pinched on Wed (11/19) off the Pacific Northwest then falling south over Central CA later Thurs (11/20) and becoming cutoff over Southern CA Fri (11/21). Beyond 72 hours starting Sat (11/22) the jet is to weaken with winds 180 kts in one pocket approaching the dateline then falling into a weak trough over the Western Gulf but with winds only 70 kts before the jet ridges northeast pushing up into Central Canada. No clear support for gale development is indicated. But by Sun (11/23) a weak trough is forecast over the North Dateline region but being fed by only 150 kts winds offering little with another tighter trough over the Eastern Gulf off Oregon being fed by 110-120 kts winds perhaps supporting low pressure development there. The Gulf trough is to push inland over Washington on Mon (11/24) producing weather there. Later Mon (11/24) the jet is to be weak but still consolidated with winds 170 over Japan proper with another small pocket of 150 kts winds in the Gulf but overall winds just 60-70 kts in the bulk of the jet tracking east on the 38N latitude line offering no real support for gale development. All that said, we suspect this is to be a short term setback with a stronger jetstream pattern forecast on the longer range models.

Surface Analysis
On Monday (11/17) background swell was fading in Hawaii associated with a gale previously off the Kuril Islands (see Weak Kuril Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours swell is to be propagating southeast towards Hawaii and California from a gale previously over the Dateline region (see Small Dateline Gale below). Windswell is also tracking towards Hawaii from a fetch currently over the dateline (see Generic Dateline Fetch below).

On Tues AM (11/18) a fetch of 35-40 kt northwest winds is to develop off the Kurils with seas 29 ft at 46.75N 157.5E aimed southeast and a front southeast of it producing 45 kts southwest winds and 24 ft seas at 41N 170E. In the evening west winds to hold at 30-35 kts streaming east off the North Kuril Islands with seas 28 ft at 46N 165.5E with the front producing 45 kts southwest wind and seas 29-30 ft at 41N 175.5E aimed southeast. On Wed AM (11/19) northwest winds to build at 35-40 kts well off the Kurils and seas 28 ft at 44.5N 165E with the front over the dateline generating southwest winds 45-50 kts and seas 35 ft at 43.25N 176.5W aimed east. In the evening the low and front push east with northwest winds 45 kts over the dateline and seas 32 ft at 47N 176E and the front with 45 kts southwest winds and seas 33 ft at 40.5N 169.75W aimed east. On Thurs AM (11/20) the fetch is to be fading from 30-45 kts over the Northwest Gulf with seas 32 ft at 47N 173W aimed east and the front fading from 35 kts ahead of the low in the Gulf with seas 26-28 ft at 45N 155W aimed east. in the evening fetch is to be fading from 30 kts over the Northwestern Gulf with seas fading from 26-27 ft over a broad area at 47N 160W aimed east. Fetch dissipating after that.

Possible northwest swell for Hawaii by the weekend (11/22) and modest northwest swell for the US West Coast by (11/22-23) and beyond.

And on Tues PM (11/18) a small low pressure system is to start circulating in the Northeast Gulf well off Vancouver Island producing 35 kts northwest winds over a small area aimed southeast with seas building. On Wed AM (11/19) the gale is to bloom 500 nmiles off Vancouver Island producing northwest winds at 40-45 getting traction and generating seas of 28 ft at 47N 145.5W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale is to push east while quickly fading from northwest winds 30-35 kts and seas 27 ft off Vancouver Island at 46N 138W aimed southeast. Fetch and seas gone after that with the core of the low diving southeast and off Central CA Thurs AM (11/20). Weather and raw local swell is possible for all of California down into Southern CA.

Small Dateline Gale
On Fri PM (11/14) a small gale developed over the Southern Dateline with 45 kt west winds and seas building from 22 ft over a tiny area at 34.5N 169E aimed east. On Sat AM (11/15) west winds to be 45-50 kts over a small area lifting northeast and seas building from 25 ft at 39N 179.5W aimed east. In the evening the gale is to track east-northeast with 50 kt west winds and seas 30 ft over a tiny area at 44.75N 169.75W aimed east. On Sun AM (11/16) the gale was lifting northeast fast with west winds 35-45 kts just south of the East Aleutians with the core of the low in the Bering Sea with seas fading from 28 ft up at 51.75N 163.75W aimed mostly northeast and a broad area of 20-22 ft seas west of it at 47N 176W aimed east. Fetch dissipated after that.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Wed (11/19) building to 3.9 ft @ 13-14 secs through the day (5.0 ft). Swell being overrun by Generic Dateline swell beyond (see below). Swell Direction: 320 degrees.

North CA: Swell is likely to be buried upon arrival by locally generated swell on Thurs (11/20).

Generic Dateline Fetch
On Sat PM (11/15) generic 30 kt northwest winds were filling a good portion of the Northwest Pacific producing seas at 23 ft at 45N 175E aimed southeast. On Sun AM (11/16) 30-35 kts northwest winds were building over a broad area in the Western North Pacific focused west of the dateline with 20-22 ft seas at 45N 165E aimed southeast. In the evening northwest winds continued at 30-35 kts approaching the dateline with seas 20-21 ft at 43N 170E aimed southeast. On Mon AM (11/17) northwest winds held at 30 kts with seas 20-22 ft at 40N 177E aimed southeast targeting Hawaii well. Fetch fading in the evening from 30-35 kts just east of the dateline with seas 20-22 ft at 37.5N 175W aimed southeast targeting Hawaii. Fetch fading out after that.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (11/20) peaking early at 5.6 ft @ 13-14 secs (7.5 ft). Swell fading Fri (11/21) from 3.1 ft @ 12-13 secs (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 320 degrees.

Weak Kuril Gale
Mon PM (11/10) a gale was pushing off the Kurils producing west winds at 30-35 kts with seas building. On Tues AM (11/11) the gale was easing east off the Kuril Islands with 35+ kt west winds with seas building to 23 ft at 47N 158E aimed east. In the evening the gale lifted north with 30-35 kt west winds off the North Kurils and seas 24 ft at 47.5N 161E aimed east. On Wed AM (11/12) west winds faded from 30 kts off Kamchatka with seas 21 ft at 48.75N 164.75E aimed east. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Swell fading Mon (11/17) from 2.3 ft @ 12-13 secs early (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 320 degrees

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Tues AM (11/18) high pressure is to be pushing into the coast with low pressure inland producing northwest winds 20-25 kts for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA but 20+ kts well off the coast. In the afternoon northwest winds hold at 25 kts for all of North CA and northwest 15 kts for Central CA (but 20 kts well off the coast). Rain showers for Central and Southern CA fading in the afternoon and evening. Snow showers falling south from the Central to Southern Sierra.
Wed AM (11/19) northwest winds are forecast fading from 15 kts for North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon a new broad gale is to be developing off the Pacific Northwest with south winds 15 kts for Cape Mendocino and 10 kts down to Pt Reyes and northwest 5-10 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast.
Thurs AM (11/20) low pressure is to push onshore near San Francisco with southwest winds 15-20 kts for North CA and southwest winds 15 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon the low is to be stationary circulating just off Bodega Bay with south winds 15 kts for North CA and northwest 5-10 kts for Central CA. Rain for North and Central CA early moving south and pushing into Southern CA in the evening. Snow falling south from over Tahoe mid-AM to the Southern Sierra in the evening.
Fri AM (11/21) the low is to be off Pt Conception with east winds 10 kts for North CA and a southeast flow 5-10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northeast winds to be 10-15 kts for North CA and east-northeast winds 10 kts for Central CA and south winds 5-10 kts for Southern CA. Rain for Central CA from Morro Bay southward into Southern CA fading over Southern CA in the evening. Snow showers for the Southern Sierra .
Sat AM (11/22) the low is to be well off Baja with east winds 5-10 kts for North and Central CA and east 5 kts for Southern CA. In the afternoon the pressure pattern collapses with northwest winds 10 kts for North and Central CA. Steady rain for Southern CA through the day and evening. Snow showers for the Southern Sierra,
Sun AM (11/23) northwest winds to be 10 kts for North and Central CA early. No change in the afternoon. Showers fading in the morning for Southern CA.
Mon AM (11/24) perhaps weak low pressure is to be over North CA with south winds 30 kts for Cape Mendocino and south 10-15 kts south of Pt Arena and northwest winds 5-10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon the low is to be well inland with northwest winds 5-10 kts for North and Central CA. Rain for Cape Mendocino early reaching south to Bodega Bay in the afternoon while fading.

Sierra Snow Forecast: (focused on Olympic Valley): Freeze level 5,000-6,800 ft Mon-Thurs (11/20) but up to 8,300 ft later on Tues (11/18). Freeze level rising Fri (11/21) roughly from 6,500 ft to 11,000 ft on Sat (11/22). 15 inches of snow accumulation for Olympic Valley through Wed (11/26). 15 inches for Mammoth.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Monday (11/17) no swell producing weather systems of interest were occurring.

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours starting Sat AM (11/22) low pressure is to be building just southwest of the North Dateline winding up while producing northwest winds 35 kts and seas building. In the evening the gale is to develop while racing northeast with 40-45 kts northwest winds over the North Dateline region with seas 23 ft at 48N 173E aimed east. On Sun AM (11/23) 45-50 kt northwest winds are to be just south of the Central Aleutians with the core of the low in the Bering Sea with seas 31 ft at 51.25N 174.5E barely in the CA swell window. Fetch drifting north in the evening at 40 kts with seas 31 ft at 51N 173.75E aimed east. The gael is to move into the Bering Sea after that. Something to monitor.

La Nina Is In the Ocean - But Not the Atmosphere -- Is the Change Coming?
Cool Water Dominating NINO3.4
In April 2025 weakly warm water surged east filling the Equatorial West Pacific and built into the East Equatorial Pacific. A low pressure bias moved over the West Pacific reaching 150E ushering in a split ENSO pattern, with El Nino like conditions in the west and La Nina like conditions in the east. The atmosphere is still under momentum of a weak La Nina while the Ocean was trying to transition to ENSO neutral. But in late July 2025 a cool pool emerged over the East Equatorial Pacific with a negative PDO suggesting La Nina is returning. But the SOI has held neutral since June suggesting the atmosphere is not yet coupled with the ocean.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption (1/15/2022) muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected, but never developed more than Modoki status.

Rationale: A Modoki La Nina developed in the Fall/Winter of 2024-25. It faded in Summer of 2025 then started turning toward La Nina again in Aug 2025. Considering it takes 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean was just starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly La Nina in late Aug, it seems La Nina could try to build into the jetstream/atmosphere in late Fall (Dec 2025). But the models suggest a return to ENSO neutral in Jan 2025. The other consideration is the PDO also appears to be still be in the cool phase if not cold, and it seem unlikely to change in the next 6 months. The net result is a trend towards La Nina as Fall progresses. And though the models suggest ENSO neutral to weak La Nina into Winter 2025/26, the PDO will overwhelm whatever push there is towards and ENSO neutral pattern beyond, resulting in some form of La Nina for the foreseeable future. This will result in less storm activity in the Northern Hemisphere for Fall-Winter 2025-26 with less storm days and smaller fetch area resulting in smaller and less frequent winter swells. One factor that could mitigate all of this is the fact the leading edge of the low pressure bias has already moved from 125E to 150E and west anomalies are forecast to build over the equatorial West Pacific over the coming months (Fall). If this happens, which is definitely up for debate, this could add fuel to the jetstream as it moves over the West Pacific making it strong and helping to improve support for storm development over the dateline as Winter processes. Most of the Pacific could be under La Nina, but the jetstream could be trending towards El Nino. As of right now, that is more of a minority outcome rather than a certainty.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 135E to 170W - The main area for generating Kelvin Waves)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (11/16) 5 day average winds were strong east over the far East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. Anomalies were light east over the East Pacific and light east over the Central Pacific and light east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (11/17) Today moderate west anomalies were filling the KWGA to 170W. Modest east anomalies were east of the dateline. The forecast indicates west anomalies holding at 150E steady through the end of the model run on 12/3 with week to modest east anomalies filling the rest of the KWGA but stronger east anomalies 11/24-11-28.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (11/16) Currently a moderate Active MJO (wet air) was filling the KWGA. The statistic model depicts the Active MJO (wet air) fading to modest status and moving to the dateline on day 5 of the model run holding unchanged through day 15. The Dynamic model indicates wet air holding filling the KWGA through day 15 of the model run. This is a first push of the Active Phase of the MJO in a very long time.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (11/17) - The models depict the Active Phase was weak to modest over the West Pacific. The statistic model has it tracking east moving to either the East Pacific at moderate status or Africa 15 days out and very weak. The dynamic model indicates the Active Phase meandering over the West Pacific at moderate status building to strong status holding over the West Pacific 15 days out.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (9/1) This model is stuck or corrupt.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/16) Today west anomalies and an inferred single Active MJO contour were filling the KWGA with anomalies at modest status reaching east to 165W. The forecast has Active Phase contours dissipating on 11/18 with moderate west anomalies holding near 150E and holding though the end of the model run on 12/14. East anomalies holding east of there at weak status but moderate 11/23-11/30.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/17) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today contours associated with the Active Phase of the MJO and west anomalies were past their peak over the KWGA reaching east to a point south of California. The forecast indicates the Active MJO is to continue tracking east over the dateline then stalling there 11/26 and holding through 1/12/2026 with modest west anomalies filling the KWGA. A weak MJO pattern is to follow in the west with the Inactive Phase possible 1/10/26 through the end of the model run on 2/14/26 but with west anomalies holding over the dateline as previously mentioned. The low pass filter indicates the leading edge of the low pressure bias was over the West Pacific reaching east to 150E and is forecast holding there through 12/27 then pushing east possibly reaching the dateline at the end of the model run. The trailing/west edge of the high pressure bias was at 165E today with 1 contour and is to hold there through 12/27 then collapsing and gone on 1/26.

Subsurface Waters Temps
Today (11/17) in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was easing east to 172E due to slackening of east anomalies and fading of the Inactive Phase of the MJO previously there. The 28 deg isotherm line was retrograding from 175W to 177W. The 24 degree isotherm was easing east moving from 130W to 122W. Warm anomalies were +2 degs in the far West Pacific with cooler water reaching the surface over most of the equatorial Pacific. And cold anomalies were steady over a thin area at depth at -2 at 135W with warming water at the thermocline holding steady at 165W. In all cool waters are back but are fading now due to fading of east anomalies and a recent Inactive Phase of the MJO. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 11/9 indicates weak cool anomalies were filling the upper ocean above the thermocline (75 meters or higher) east of 165E. Cool anomalies were in control over the deeper ocean at the thermocline (150 meters) east of 165W to Ecuador (a cold water Kelvin Wave). Warm anomalies were filling the West Pacific. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (11/9) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative (-0.5 cms) from Ecuador to 170W (previously 150W). -10 cms anomalies were present on the equator from 125W to 155W. The entire East Equatorial Pacific was in a cool pattern again, but it seems we're past the worst of it as it warms, and even at that it was not too bad. Heights were weakly above normal from 170E and points west of there. The cool pool is rebuilding over equator in the East Pacific.
Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (11/9) indicates cool anomalies were filling the equatorial Pacific from 165W to Ecuador. Warm anomalies were west of 170E (previously 150W). On 7/15 we went from ENSO neutral to some flavor of weak La Nina.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (11/16) The latest images depict a clear cool pool filling the equatorial Pacific from the Galapagos to 165E with embedded cooler pockets evenly spread across that area. This looks like a weak La Nina is in control. Alternate SST Anomaly (Global Mean): Warmer anomalies were limited west of the dateline with cooler waters east of there to Ecuador.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (11/16): Temps were steady from the Galapagos to 140W but with a few embedded cooler pockets, likely the result of the last lingering remnants of an Inactive MJO exiting the equatorial Pacific.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/17) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were steady at -1.193 and have been in this range since 11/6. Previously temps were -0.7 10/24-11/1 and previously steady at -1.00 (10/13-10/20) then had been generally steady around -0.750 since since 8/24 after peaking at +0.370 on 8/11 and +0.420 on 8/16. Prior to that temps were rising, up from -0.330 on 8/1 after falling from +0.23 degs 7/16, falling to -0.080 9 days earlier (7/12) after inching up at +0.209 7/8 after being down as low as -0.2 (6/25), falling from +0.31 on 6/15, down at -0.087 6/12, +0.38 on 6/8, and previously up to +0.426 degs (5/29).
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/17) Today's temps were steady at -1.180 down from -0.973 (11/5) after falling to -1.087 (10/30) and had been hovering in this range since 9/15 . Temps fell down to -0.870 on 9/1 and had been falling since 8/9, steady at -0.447 starting 7/30 being down at -0.625 (7/27) after being steady at -0.065 7/9 and holding there since 7/4 after being steady at -0.136 since 6/23 previously up in a peak at -0.173 (6/4) and had been falling 5/8-5/16 from 0.00 but otherwise have been slowly and steadily rising from -0.5 degs since 4/7.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were steady at -0.7 (week of 11/12 & 11/5) Previously temps were -0.6 (weeks of 10/15, 10/22 & 10/29), -0.3 (10/8), -0.5 (9/24 & 10/1), -0.4 (9/17), -0.5 (9/10), -0.3 (9/3), -0.4 (8/20 & 8/27), -0.3 (7/30, 8/6 & 8/13), -0.2 (7/16 & 7/23), +0.1 (7/9), 0.0 (7/2), +0.1 (6/25), +0.2 (6/18), 0.0 (6/4 & 6/11), -0.1 (5/28), -0.2 (5/21), -0.1 degs (5/14), +0.1 (5/17), -0.1 (4/30), 0.0 (4/23), -0.2 (4/16), -0.1 (4/2 & 4/9), +0.2 (3/26), -0.1 (3/19), 0.3 (3/12), 0.0 (3/5), -0.2 (2/26), -0.3 (2/12 & 2/19), -0.6 (2/5), -0.8 (1/29), -0.9 (1/22), -0.6 (1/15), -0.7 (1/1 and 1/8).
Monthly Data is -0.53 Oct, -0.47 Sept, -0.36 Aug, -0.14 July -0.06 June, -0.13 May, -0.14 April, +0.01 March, -0.43 Feb, -0.73 Jan.
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.78 (ASO). -0.63 (JAS), -0.47 (JJA), -0.43 (MJJ), -0.49 AMJ, -0.52 (MAM), -0.67 (FMA), -0.89 (JFM), -1.12 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose unexpectedly to +0.025 in March then faded only to -0.1 in April (far less that the -0.40 forecast) then steady at 0.00 in May-June. Temps started falling in mid-July down to -0.3 in Aug, -0.45 Sept and -0.40 in Oct.
Forecast (11/17) - Sea Surface Temp Anomalies for Nov did NOT fall nearly as hard as previously forecast (was -0.95 but is -0.7). Temps are forecast holding at -0.70 now through mid-Dec then rising to technically neutral early Jan, -0.30 degs mid-Jan then neutral (0.0) in early Feb 2026 and building after that. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same with temps holding at -0.70 degs in Nov and technically neutral -0.50 degs in early Jan then rising on the same path. It looks like we're heading into something that looks like a Modoki La Nina in the Fall of '25 at worst, but turning neutral before reaching Winter proper.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Oct 19, 2025 Plume (all models) depicts temps are at -0.296. Temps to slowly fall to -0.633 in OND (previous model run -0.623), then rising to -0.539 in DJF and 0.026 in AMJ. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.662 (-0.710 previous run) OND then rising to +0.443 at the end of the model run. The Statistic model suggests temps falling to -0.602 NDJ (-0.526 previous run) rising to -0.019 at the end of the model run. In other words, We are just barely at weak La Nina today but back to neutral in January and forecast rising slowly from there indicating ENSO Neutral this Fall and Winter.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (11/17) the Daily Index was positive at +19.47 but had been generally falling since 11/8 but mostly positive the past month.
The 30 day average was rising some at +14.55 and has been rising steadily from +4.60 a month ago.
The 90 day average was rising at +8.06 and on the high side of ENSO neutral rising steadily from +3.51 a month ago.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Negative is bad, Positive is good)
Past Recent History: The PDO theoretically turned from a warm (positive) trend in Spring of '98 and has cool (negative) mostly since then other than turning weakly positive March 2014-June 2017. It went hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec 2024 and -1.32 in Jan 2025.
Current Situation: The index was steady at -2.40 Oct, -2.38 Sept (and inline with average readings since Nov 2021), -3.18 Aug after falling hard in July at -4.0 (the lowest ever), -2.51 June, -1.71 May, -1.18 April, -1.12 March and -1.45 Feb 2025. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any meaningful duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.